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TheReverend
04-08-2011, 11:56 AM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/mock-drafts/brian-baldinger/55050?module=HP_cp2


#
Pick No.
1
CAR
Patrick Peterson
DB
LSU

The Panthers have a long history of sticking with pedestrian quarterbacks like Kerry Collins, Steve Beuerlein and Jake Delhomme. They stand pat again with last year's second-round pick, Jimmy Clausen, and begin the rebuilding process with the draft's best player.
#
Pick No.
2
DEN
Marcell Dareus
DE
Alabama

All coach John Fox needs to investigate this special player is to call his former defensive line coach in Carolina, Sal Sunseri, who is currently a position coach at Alabama and was around Dareus for two years. Dareus passes every test and anchors the new four-man defensive line that will also feature the return of a healthy Elvis Dumervil.
#
Pick No.
3
BUF
Blaine Gabbert
QB
Missouri

Chan Gailey has worked with many big-time quarterbacks, including Troy Aikman. While Ryan Fitzpatrick is suitable in Gailey's offense, the Bills need to chase away the ghosts of Jim Kelly that have haunted the organization since the day he departed. Gabbert should finally begin that process.
#
Pick No.
4
CIN
Cam Newton
QB
Auburn

Mike Brown takes Carson Palmer's threat of retirement seriously and reacts by taking the talented Newton. Carson's brother, Jordan, is the only other QB on the roster to have thrown an NFL pass. Newton should create a buzz with the fan base and within the locker room.
#
Pick No.
5
ARI
Von Miller
LB
Texas A&M

The Cardinals' defense needs an improved pass rush, fresh legs and renewed energy. Starting OLBs Joey Porter and Clark Haggans combined for a total of 10 sacks last season. Miller brings a healthy resume and should immediately upgrade the defensive side of the ball.



Hoping it doesn't turn out this way, but Dareus would still be nice for Denver.

My biggest "wtf?"s while reading this:

1. Pouncey being drafted before Tyron Smith and Castonzo. No chance in hell, imo.

2. Phil Taylor at 18 is F'ing absurd, imo

3. Bowers falling to 16!

4. MAYYYYYYYBE Houston sneaks into the first round, but to get taken at 21? That's almost as big a wtf as Alaulu last year.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 12:03 PM
every indication from essentially everyone, including schefter who called last years first round pick in february, is newton is #1 this year. no way cam falls to 4.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 12:05 PM
every indication from essentially everyone, including schefter who called last years first round pick in february, is newton is #1 this year. no way cam falls to 4.

There's lots of ways he can "fall" to AT LEAST 4, actually.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 12:08 PM
There's lots of ways he can "fall" to AT LEAST 4, actually.

just saying, based on every report thats been available for a few weeks, its like saying sam bradford last year could fall to 4 too. sure he COULD, but he was never going to. i would bet (though not as definitely as last year) that its the same with newton.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 12:11 PM
just saying, based on every report thats been available for a few weeks, its like saying sam bradford last year could fall to 4 too. sure he COULD, but he was never going to. i would bet (though not as definitely as last year) that its the same with newton.

Sam Bradford's only issue last year was potential durability questions.

Cam Newton has 10000 questions on his character and personality alone, let alone his passing/making reads ability. He's super athletic and has TONS of talent and could very well DESERVE #1 overall, but your comparison is completely ridiculous.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 12:16 PM
Sam Bradford's only issue last year was potential durability questions.

Cam Newton has 10000 questions on his character and personality alone, let alone his passing/making reads ability. He's super athletic and has TONS of talent and could very well DESERVE #1 overall, but your comparison is completely ridiculous.

my comparison is based on media response and how a lot of times, the smoke fire thing comes into play, not the player himself. clearly sam was a far superior player and by most accounts his pro day was one of the best evaluators had seen in a long time (brandt said best since aikman i believe). but schefter et al began predicting him to rams in february, just like he is predicting newton to panthers, along with a lot of other people. its not gauranteed that he is the one, but at the end of the day its far more likely than not at this point.

peterson may be the best player in the draft relative to his position, but its hard to justify taking a corner with top 3 picks as they dont come around often.

HAT
04-08-2011, 12:21 PM
I've seen a bunch of mocks that have Taylor to the Chiefs at #21. I don't think it's that much of stretch that he's a mid first rounder for a NT hungry 3-4 team.

And I can see Bowers easily slipping to 16 (or farther).

Interesting to see Austin make the first round. Liuget to the Bears has been a popular slot. The majority of mocks I've seen have him going to the Rams, Saints or Bears. Let's hope, the Rams think he's a reach at 14, the Saints look elsewhere & there is still a top tier OL on the board for the Bears.

Beantown Bronco
04-08-2011, 12:24 PM
but schefter et al began predicting him to rams in february, just like he is predicting newton to panthers,

You'd be better off going with someone who was completely wrong last year. Nobody in the media is right more than half the time with these things, so if you go with someone who was wrong last year, you have a better shot at guessing correctly this year. :)

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 12:27 PM
my comparison is based on media response and how a lot of times, the smoke fire thing comes into play, not the player himself. clearly sam was a far superior player and by most accounts his pro day was one of the best evaluators had seen in a long time (brandt said best since aikman i believe). but schefter et al began predicting him to rams in february, just like he is predicting newton to panthers, along with a lot of other people. its not gauranteed that he is the one, but at the end of the day its far more likely than not at this point.

I'm certain Schefter has his sources and as usual they're good (though, how hard is it to lock down Bradford at #1 in February when he was the ONLY top tier QB in the draft?). That's not the discussion. The discussion is you saying, "No way cam falls to #4", when there are MANY ways he could fall to 4.

1. What if Carolina just likes Gabbert better?
2. How many teams have taken Newton off their board entirely for being a head case?
3. etc

peterson may be the best player in the draft relative to his position, but its hard to justify taking a corner with top 3 picks as they dont come around often.

That has what to do with Cam Newton?

oubronco
04-08-2011, 12:38 PM
3. Bowers falling to 16!



Da'Quan Bowers may need microfracture surgery

In a Wednesday conference call, Pro Football Weekly draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki told reporters that people in the NFL are concerned Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers may need microfracture knee surgery.

Nawrocki says all of the medical red flags could push Bowers into the back half of round one. We'd heard the microfracture rumors before, but there wasn't anything substantial enough to run with them. Nawrocki insists there are. Bowers will be in Indianapolis Friday for a medical recheck. At that point, doctors will determine whether he needs a surgical procedure that would almost certainly cost him the entire 2011 season.

Apr 6, 1:58 PM

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 12:50 PM
You'd be better off going with someone who was completely wrong last year. Nobody in the media is right more than half the time with these things, so if you go with someone who was wrong last year, you have a better shot at guessing correctly this year. :)

true, but just worth noting what the best media guy said about it. a scout privately said that if newton was white, he would be the sure fire #1 pick with no real question. take that for what its worth, if anything.

Beantown Bronco
04-08-2011, 12:54 PM
a scout privately said that if newton was white, he would be the sure fire #1 pick with no real question.

Warren Moon is a scout now?

Mogulseeker
04-08-2011, 12:57 PM
I'm thinking more and more that we're trading down.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 12:57 PM
*Warren Moon isn’t the only person who thinks race may be a factor in the way the NFL world is perceiving Cam Newton. A high ranking NFL executive, who is white, came to the same conclusion before Moon made his comments. “If Newton were white, he’d be the first pick in the draft,” he said.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-1492.html

rugbythug
04-08-2011, 12:59 PM
I think bowers falls far. 3rd round far.

OABB
04-08-2011, 01:01 PM
If newton were white, he'd be a poor man's Tebow.

rugbythug
04-08-2011, 01:02 PM
If newton was an indian.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 01:05 PM
I think bowers falls far. 3rd round far.

MLive.com's Tom Kowalski believes the Lions would "absolutely" strongly consider Da'Quan Bowers if he fell to No. 13 in the draft.
"He's a top-five talent and I think he'd be worth the risk," writes Kowalski. Bowers' chances of going in the teens may depend solely on his Friday medical check in Indianapolis. In Detroit, he would play left defensive end across from Kyle Vanden Bosch, allowing Cliff Avril to fill a nickel rusher role.

per roto, and kowalski is generally regarded as one of the best beat writers in the business.

Jetmeck
04-08-2011, 01:13 PM
every indication from essentially everyone, including schefter who called last years first round pick in february, is newton is #1 this year. no way cam falls to 4.

Hope your right but if this mock draft is right is does make our pick a little easier without Peterson on the board but I think you are right.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 01:13 PM
If newton were white, he'd be a poor man's Tebow.

^ This

It's been a long time since being black held anyone down as a player in the NFL. If anything, the shoe is very much on the other foot these days.

Jetmeck
04-08-2011, 01:15 PM
If newton were white, he'd be a poor man's Tebow.

This is Tebow all over again with only one exception....no throwing motion BS to b**** about. Other than that they are both risks...........

gunns
04-08-2011, 01:16 PM
MLive.com's Tom Kowalski believes the Lions would "absolutely" strongly consider Da'Quan Bowers if he fell to No. 13 in the draft.
"He's a top-five talent and I think he'd be worth the risk," writes Kowalski. Bowers' chances of going in the teens may depend solely on his Friday medical check in Indianapolis. In Detroit, he would play left defensive end across from Kyle Vanden Bosch, allowing Cliff Avril to fill a nickel rusher role.

per roto, and kowalski is generally regarded as one of the best beat writers in the business.

An injured player is too much of a risk in the first round, IMO, something McD should have heeded before making his first pick last year.

JCMElway
04-08-2011, 01:22 PM
Hey CBF1, you're up in the mock draft!

DrFate
04-08-2011, 01:47 PM
The sudden emergence of Newton is kind of perplexing to me. Pre-season he was nowhere as a top draft pick. He got kicked out of one school, played a year at Whatsamatta U, then had a flash-in-the-pan year at Auburn.

His draft rise reminds me of Akili Smith (except Smith didn't have a rap sheet that I remember). One good year and everyone falls in love with the arm/leg combination.

That said - I hope Carolina does take him. That moves Denver to #1 overall.

:D

Requiem
04-08-2011, 01:56 PM
Gosselin was on NFL Draft Countdown's podcast the other night and I absolutely agree with him: How in the **** does a QB who has thrown less than 300 collegiate passes go #1 overall?

It just doesn't make sense, and Gabbert going that high doesn't either. I don't see what makes him so much more special than other Missouri QB's who put up awesome numbers. I honest to God, outside FSU homerism, think Ponder is the most NFL ready QB in the draft. He is actually my top rated QB.

FWIW, I hated the Tebow pick last year (hence me getting an 18 pack right after) and though he impressed me in his limited starts, I would not be opposed to getting Ponder as long as we were able to trade back and get some ammo -- or if he fell to #36. I think he is the right QB for the future and think he'd be a good fit for our offensive system. I think Elway likes him a lot too.

Kaylore
04-08-2011, 02:14 PM
I'm thinking more and more that we're trading down.

It would make the most sense. There's no one I'm in love with. Granted, some of this is over-scouting but with so many holes, trading back multiple times for more picks this year and next makes the most sense.

NFLBRONCO
04-08-2011, 02:27 PM
It would make the most sense. There's no one I'm in love with. Granted, some of this is over-scouting but with so many holes, trading back multiple times for more picks this year and next makes the most sense.

Esp with a bad D new FO no FA this is best best idea longterm for Denver.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 02:31 PM
if you move back, you may be setting yourself up for failure. dareus may give this team a cornerstone at DT, with doom back and maybe a FA or filler at the other draft position and ayers at a natural spot for him, this team may be on its way to having a NOT awful defense.

NFLBRONCO
04-08-2011, 02:34 PM
It would make the most sense. There's no one I'm in love with. Granted, some of this is over-scouting but with so many holes, trading back multiple times for more picks this year and next makes the most sense.

I did this for fun the other day


Denver trades #2 pick to Ariz for #5 and 2011 3rd Rounder#69 and 2012 1st round pick
Denver trades #5 pick to Tenn for #8 2011 2nd rounder #39 and 2012 2nd round pick 2012
Denver trades #8 pick to STL for #14 2011 2nd rounder #47 and a 2nd round pick in 2012

Denver has #14 #36 #39 #46 #47 #67 #69 (This many picks would make this board cheer for weeks)
Denver has 2 #1's in 2012 2 #2's in 2012 draft

Ariz wants a QB
Tenn wants Fairley or Dareus
STL wants Julio Jones

Denver can draft Bowers or Quinn at 14. Go OT (DT twice) in 2nd round and still bolster other areas. Denver has many holes needs tons of quality picks to fill those holes.

Requiem
04-08-2011, 02:35 PM
I don't see how trading down is a failure at all. If the Broncos have high grades on Peterson, Dareus and Miller -- and Newton goes #1 -- Denver can trade back a few spots and are still guaranteed one of those guys. Even Fairley if that is who they like for Fox's defense.

Peterson, Dareus and Miller are all blue-chippers. Some people may have preference, but getting an awesome defensive player is what we need. If we can get one of them and accumulate other picks to address other needs, that is WINNING.

tsiguy96
04-08-2011, 02:36 PM
I did this for fun the other day


Denver trades #2 pick to Ariz for #5 and 2011 3rd Rounder#69 and 2012 1st round pick
Denver trades #5 pick to Tenn for #8 2011 2nd rounder #39 and 2012 2nd round pick 2012
Denver trades #8 pick to STL for #14 2011 2nd rounder #47 and a 2nd round pick in 2012

Denver has #14 #36 #39 #46 #47 #67 #69 (This many picks would make this board cheer for weeks)
Denver has 2 #1's in 2012 2 #2's in 2012 draft

Ariz wants a QB
Tenn wants Fairley or Dareus
STL wants Julio Jones

Denver can draft Bowers or Quinn at 14. Go OT (DT twice) in 2nd round and still bolster other areas. Denver has many holes needs tons of quality picks to fill those holes.

AZ wont move up, they are likely sticking with defense at the #5 spot because they dont really view a top franchise QB worthy of the pick.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 02:36 PM
I did this for fun the other day


Denver trades #2 pick to Ariz for #5 and 2011 3rd Rounder#69 and 2012 1st round pick
Denver trades #5 pick to Tenn for #8 2011 2nd rounder #39 and 2012 2nd round pick 2012
Denver trades #8 pick to STL for #14 2011 2nd rounder #47 and a 2nd round pick in 2012

Denver has #14 #36 #39 #46 #47 #67 #69 (This many picks would make this board cheer for weeks)
Denver has 2 #1's in 2012 2 #2's in 2012 draft

Ariz wants a QB
Tenn wants Fairley or Dareus
STL wants Julio Jones

Denver can draft Bowers or Quinn at 14. Go OT (DT twice) in 2nd round and still bolster other areas. Denver has many holes needs tons of quality picks to fill those holes.

Not going to happen. Ari DOES want a QB, but this heap of garbage aren't QBs.

NFLBRONCO
04-08-2011, 02:46 PM
if you move back, you may be setting yourself up for failure. dareus may give this team a cornerstone at DT, with doom back and maybe a FA or filler at the other draft position and ayers at a natural spot for him, this team may be on its way to having a NOT awful defense.

While I'm not going to disagree with the Dareus point. Why wouldn't stockpiling picks work. Ask the great drafting teams that mostly pick 20 or lower each round. This FO needs to prove the ability to draft well high mid or low in rounds or we will never get better. Besides it was for fun anyways :).
Besides only way this D vastly improves in 1 yr is if Dareus Miller and Peterson all arrive together.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 02:48 PM
While I'm not going to disagree with the Dareus point. Why wouldn't stockpiling picks work. Ask the great drafting teams that mostly pick 20 or lower each round. This FO needs to prove the ability to draft well high mid or low in rounds or we will never get better. Besides it was for fun anyways :).

Well...

A lot of that is nabbing great system fits for an established system, and supplementing an established core of talented players.

Not quite the same situation Denver is in, though I'm absolutely fine with trading down.

NFLBRONCO
04-08-2011, 02:56 PM
Well...

A lot of that is nabbing great system fits for an established system, and supplementing an established core of talented players.

Not quite the same situation Denver is in, though I'm absolutely fine with trading down.

Yeah I agree with you. I'm just saying Denver could use a boatload of more picks because we aren't in the shape they are so I'm ok with moving down as often as you can.

TheReverend
04-08-2011, 03:03 PM
Yeah I agree with you. I'm just saying Denver could use a boatload of more picks because we aren't in the shape they are so I'm ok with moving down as often as you can.

It'd be nice to have a 4th and a 5th, but we're in a pretty good position in rounds 1-3

I'm fine moving down a LITTLE, but I'm not too high on the 2nd tier talent. I'd much rather grab a guy that could potentially be a franchise player in any system at a high level.

Here's our most talented players, and every single one of them has question marks:

Champ - Age
Elvis - Coming off MAJOR injury
Knowshon - Slow and eternally injured
Tebow - Nice end to the season, but can he make it?
Clady - Hasn't been a top tier player since ZBS
DJ - Is he mentally retarded?

We have a LOT of holes to fill... but we need building blocks as well.

NFLBRONCO
04-08-2011, 03:21 PM
It'd be nice to have a 4th and a 5th, but we're in a pretty good position in rounds 1-3

I'm fine moving down a LITTLE, but I'm not too high on the 2nd tier talent. I'd much rather grab a guy that could potentially be a franchise player in any system at a high level.

Here's our most talented players, and every single one of them has question marks:

Champ - Age
Elvis - Coming off MAJOR injury
Knowshon - Slow and eternally injured
Tebow - Nice end to the season, but can he make it?
Clady - Hasn't been a top tier player since ZBS
DJ - Is he mentally retarded?

We have a LOT of holes to fill... but we need building blocks as well.

I agree with this as well

Drek
04-08-2011, 03:27 PM
It would make the most sense. There's no one I'm in love with. Granted, some of this is over-scouting but with so many holes, trading back multiple times for more picks this year and next makes the most sense.

When has a team in the top 10, let alone top 3, ever traded back multiple times? Incredibly rare that after your first move you're lined up well on the draft board to make a second move down.

That said, an initial trade down really should be the priority. Unless they've got a team so QB starved that they deliriously think Gabbert and/or Newton are top 5 quality QBs though it'll be very hard to make happen. If it does though we'd likely still be in the 5-7 range and one of Dareus, Fairley, Miller, or Peterson will drop to us.