View Full Version : Poll - Next Arab Revolution
02-18-2011, 01:54 AM
With a people's revolution sweeping the Arab word, which country is the next to follow Tunisia and Egypt? For reference; Bahrain is a small country in the Persian Gulf and home to the US 5th Fleet. Algeria has had the most successful and sustained protests while Bahrain the most violent. Yemen has been on the verge of civil war for years and has massive influence from Saudi and the US. Libya has been ruled by the same man for 40yrs. Jordan and Saudi are both mostly stable monarchies. Iran has almost no chance.
02-18-2011, 07:16 PM
It will happen here, but it wont be Arabs. It will be unions.
02-18-2011, 07:19 PM
That CNN article must have got you going.
02-19-2011, 10:31 PM
Demonstrations countinue, but some have real intent while others seem like power grabs.
Many of these protests, which have been the most sustained, seem organized by opposition parties with popular participation flowwing from the general liberty movement. Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia has declared the 19-yr state of emergency will end this month and, if he also gives concessions to the organized opposition parties, he could remain in power. Not sure if such a move would constitute real freedom, but this seems like a lower-key power movement.
This one's pure revolution and cannot be stopped. I just cast my vote in the poll for Libya. All towns have been liberated with police and military in hiding and many of their buildings burnt down. The above article is about military personel firing mortars and +50caliber automatics at a crowd storming their building. Speculation that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi would bring in arab mercinaries to take the role abandoned by the police and military have not materialized. Like Egypt, there are no opposition parties vying for power or organizing these actions, just a citizens revolt against repression.
I have no idea how this one will turn out. There is discontent between the Sunni royal family and Shia poulation and protestors have called for the release of political prisoners, resignation of the governemt and a new constitution. I've stated before that the mi,litary always ends up on the winning side and, so far, they've used lethal force to assault demostrations. This revolt could very well be a proxy battle of Gulf states so who the military sides with will be important to watch. If they flip to the Shia protestors, the government will fall. If not, a lot of blood will be spilt to quiet this uprising.
Can't call this one either. Yemen is a political knot with a divided population and multiple power influences. The people are riding the Arab revolt, but there's too much in flux in this third world country to predict what will happen.
02-22-2011, 04:33 PM
New there have been ongoing protests since before the Arab revolution began, but it seems to be picking up speed now. Considering Iraq was 'reconstructed' with brutality and corruption equal to under Saddam (both in the image of the US State Dept), this is a lit powderkeg, but now with citizen mercinaries, not just military/police, employed by the state and willing to execute their neighbors.
Iraqis prepare for 'Day of Wrath' as protests turn violent
"[snips] ...The protests that started peacefully last week have turned increasingly violent. One man died and other eight others were injured after an attack Monday by an alleged pro-government militia on a group of demonstrators trying to spend the night at Baghdad's Tahrir square.
"They came an hour after the midnight curfew. It was a group of around 60, most of them teenagers, armed with knives and clubs. They all jumped of from hummers belonging to the Interior Ministry," a witness, who just wanted to be called "Istivan," told Deutsche Welle.
"We'll sleep in Tahrir Square until our demands are met. It's been already eight years since Saddam's fall but we've hardly seen any meaningful reconstruction in the country yet," Kemal Jabar, one of the organizers, told Deutsche Welle. Shia cleric Abdulgaith Al Hassan also joined the protesters at the weekend to spend the night in Tahrir square with them. In a telephone conversation from an undisclosed location, Al Hassan told Deutsche Welle that the eight injured were being treated at their houses because they feared harassment by the Interior Ministry's security forces if they were taken to hospital.
Protesters and security forces were again squaring off on Tuesday on Baghdad's Tahrir square with the forces cordoning off the area with hummers and heavily-armed soldiers. Bashar Mandalawy, a reporter from the Kurdistan-based AKNews agency, complained to Deutsche Welle that the police and the army were "choosing who could broadcast live from Tahrir square while other journalists where prevented from doing their job".
In addition to the slogans denouncing the lack of basic infrastructures and corruption, demonstrators have also protested at the police brutality against several peaceful marches throughout the country, especially in the north. The Kurdish Autonomous Region - Iraq's most stable district by and large - is witnessing unprecedented episodes of violence these days. Despite official sources reporting just one casualty in Sulaimania, unofficial reports say there have been "more than 10" after the police shot at protesters last weekend in the northern Kurdish city.
Baghdad's Paradise Square has also been a meeting point for several marches during the last weeks. Hundreds of people have gathered by the pedestal from which the statue of Saddam was toppled in 2003 in protest at the expropriation of property by the government. "No to state terrorism," was the most recurrent slogan.
"Saddam´s portraits in the streets have been replaced by those of the Shia leaders, both spiritual and political. I don´t know which is worse, corruption or the increasing religious fanaticism that is spreading across the country," complained a street seller at the bazaar in Baghdad´s Tahrir square.
When asked about the increasing demands for change and reforms, Galal Lawrani, secretary of the Iraqi Parliament's deputy spokesman, pleaded for patience and understanding. "We fight against corruption although we do admit that much of the money is lost in the hands of subcontractors. However, people do not understand that there's very little we can do as these companies are often linked to senior politicians. An intervention could lead to a government crisis almost immediately." "
02-22-2011, 04:39 PM
When the House of Saud falls all sorts of **** hits the fan. Oil prices, for one thing. The other thing is that massive American corporations, intertwined with the MI complex support the Sauds and draw down the fat part of their incomes by running the Saud's oil delivery system. What kind of pressure will there be on the U.S. government to side with the Sauds against the people? Could get very interesting. Perhaps we should shift the emphasis of our foreign policy from stability at all costs to the principles of liberty?
02-23-2011, 11:19 PM
While there's bound to be hundreds of books written in the future about the total incompetance of Obama and the State Depts handeling of the Egyptian crisis and Arab revolution, here's a very good piece by Deutsche Welle - Germany's version of BBC - including comments on studies before and during the revolts, lethargic actions and contradictory comments by Obama, Biden, Hillary and the intelligence community, and the abundace of iggnored warnings.
Also, several parliment members of Yemen's ruling party have resigned in protest of live fire used against the ongoing peaceful protests in the country.
L.A. BRONCOS FAN
02-23-2011, 11:31 PM
It will happen here, but it wont be Arabs. It will be unions.
Hard to tell which of those two groups you hate more.
02-23-2011, 11:45 PM
I don't know what happened in the book, "DUNE"?
02-24-2011, 06:10 AM
Libya is getting free one city at a time. That was some sight watching tens of thousands of people greeting and cheering the CNN's news van like it was a WW2 victory parade.
Still far from over. This could still get much uglier before it's all over.