PDA

View Full Version : Positional Draft Value Pyramid


Dedhed
01-28-2011, 07:52 AM
I came across this "Positional Value Pyramid" on my favorite draft site. It divides all positions into 6 tiers of value, and has detailed breakdowns of each position within each tier and why it's ranked in that tier.

The criteria used to set the draft value pyramid is:
1. Scarcity: How tough is it to find this position? Are they relatively easy to get in free agency and the NFL Draft, or is this the type of position that is highly sought over on Draft Day and very tough to get in Round 2 (think quarterbacks, left tackles and right defensive ends). For scarcity, a very rare position would get a "3" and a dime-a-dozen position would get a "1". The reason for this is that a position that is hard to find has more value since it is rare - think of it like supply and demand. Little supply leads to greater demand, which leads to more positional value.

2. Effectiveness: I had some trouble coming up with a way to define this attribute, but basically it is how valuable is this position to a team winning and losing. I will often refer to a position as being a "low 2" or a "high 2" to distinguish between ratings slightly and make it known when I feel like a position needs more or less than its just due.

3. Money: Some positions cost more than others, and I think this impacts a position's value. I definitely think while quarterbacks are the highest paid position in the game, they get one of the best returns on their investments since they sell jerseys, merchandise and tickets, and get more publicity than any other positions, but here we are just focusing on how much each position costs rather than weighing the ROI (return on investment) of each position, which sounds like a great idea for you economic majors looking for a great idea on next year's thesis you have to write. Expensive positions received a "1" and cheaper positions received a "3" - the cheapness leads to better value and ties up less of the salary cap. Hey, if you want Peyton Manning, he is going to cost a ton of money, but remember I am not weighing in the ROI here.

4. Durability. Some positions lead to shorter careers and more injuries, while come positions have longer careers. Positions with poor durability received a "1" and positions with great durability have a "3".


The tiers are as followed.

Tier 1- Quarterbacks-http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier1.php

Tier 2- Left Tackles, Right Defensive Ends, Cornerbacks, Rush Linebackers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier2.php

Tier 3-Defensive Tackles, #1 Wide Receivers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier3.php

Tier 4-Safeties, Nose Tackles, Left Ends, 4-3 Inside Linebackers, RBs, and RTs
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_2.php

Tier 5- #2 WRs, 3-4 DEs, Weakside LBs, 3-4 ILBs, Interior OL, TE, and #3WR
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_2.php

Tier 6- Strongside LBs, Kickers, and Punters
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier6.php

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 08:02 AM
How do I edit the thread title?

Kaylore
01-28-2011, 08:04 AM
Select Edit, then select "Go Advanced" and then edit and save.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 08:10 AM
Select Edit, then select "Go Advanced" and then edit and save.Thanks

schaaf
01-28-2011, 08:11 AM
sooo... we should draft peterson :)

PRBronco
01-28-2011, 08:15 AM
Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 08:29 AM
Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?I don't think the article assumes anything, really, it's outlining why positions are to be valued.

It goes into great detail on each position individually and why it's valued where it is.

listopencil
01-28-2011, 08:32 AM
Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?



This pyramid is based on BPA.

Tombstone RJ
01-28-2011, 08:42 AM
So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 08:53 AM
So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.

I don't think it says they have to take him. It suggests that he's the player who would likely have the most impact over the course of his career, and have the best value.

If you used the pyramid, we would skip tier 1.

Tier 2 we would look for CB, Right DE, CC, Rush LB. Of those positions, Peterson is very clearly the best player available.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 08:55 AM
This pyramid is based on BPA.

I don't see it that way. I would be more apt to base BPA analysis on this pyramid.

primetime714
01-28-2011, 09:03 AM
So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.

You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.

listopencil
01-28-2011, 09:07 AM
I don't see it that way. I would be more apt to base BPA analysis on this pyramid.

Yeah, I see what you are saying.

Inkana7
01-28-2011, 09:11 AM
You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?


You can also argue that Champ, even if he resigns, will not be around for much longer.

CEH
01-28-2011, 09:12 AM
You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.

If you can put a guy opposite Doom that is as good as Doom whodo you double team? Can't allocate 4 guys to block 2 guys. The numbers don't add up so maybe have to keep a back in or a TE to chip. Either way the odds severly favor Denver is they have a great DE opposite Doom.

Pass rush for Denver will trump CB play if you could pick 2 great DEs vs 2 great CBs becuase Doom is alot younger than Champ if he comes back 100% from his injury. CHamp will move to FS in a year or two as is

Plus there is always the next can't miss CB next year or the year after

JMO

listopencil
01-28-2011, 09:13 AM
You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.

I think the idea with Peterson is that he moves to #1 CB as Champ moves to Free Safety over time, and that high quality DT's are available in round two.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:14 AM
You could also argue that Peterson would only be our #2 CB (assuming Champ returns). While he may be able to shut down his side of the field does shutting down a #2 WR make him as valuable as a #1 CB who shuts down the opponent's top guy?

Also consistently throughout the analysis there is a common theme that rushing the passer is key to any good defense. If you can't do that it doesn't matter who your CB's are. RDE is the key position for rushing the passer and we are set there, but we have no support for our RDE as he is basically our only pass rusher (Ayers still unproven) and the only guy on the line that requires significant attention.
If you use the argument in your first paragraph and apply it to DE, Peterson still has greater value than a DE. We have two solid DEs or Rush OLBs in Ayers and Doom, and although Ayers is still somewhat unproven, he's better than our #2 CB.

Otherwise, you're talking about dropping down into a lesser tier.

Missouribronc
01-28-2011, 09:15 AM
This is also what makes our season so strange, how we ended up picking No. 2.

We really don't need any of the four positions listed in Tier 1 and Tier 2. We have two NFL starting caliber quarterbacks (IMO), we have a left tackle in Clady who was coming off an injury and had a down year but is regarded as possibly the best young tackle in football, we have the leading sack man from two years ago who happened to be injured and we have a shutdown corner though he does need to be resigned and he is aging.

We're in a position to pick up a quality player from Tier 3, yet we may not need any WRs, and the right DT might not be of good value at pick No. 2 (assuming Fairley goes at No. 1).

If you can take a step back, and look at it from the outside, it really is interesting how this team ended up where it was. Going into the season, there seemed no need for concern because we had Tier 1, Tier 2, half of Tier 3, and we thought we'd signed the other half of Tier 3...yet somehow this team is picking No. 2. Quite amazing, if you believe in this type of team building.

Rohirrim
01-28-2011, 09:18 AM
I still think you have to take into consideration the team effect of various positions. For instance, you can have a great CB (like Bailey), but if you have no pass rush, or a weak Dline, it is going to impact his effectiveness, simply because he spends more time in coverage and more time chasing down runners. In other words, a good Dline extends the life of your secondary. So, do you go with the tier two CB over the tier 3 DT, even if your team is worse off in the pass rush department, or do you go with the DT because he is going to improve overall secondary effectiveness? A CB is not going to have much effect on the play of the Dline, but the Dline has a huge effect on the play of the secondary.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:19 AM
If you can put a guy opposite Doom that is as good as Doom whodo you double team? Can't allocate 4 guys to block 2 guys. The numbers don't add up so maybe have to keep a back in or a TE to chip. Either way the odds severly favor Denver is they have a great DE opposite Doom.

Pass rush for Denver will trump CB play if you could pick 2 great DEs vs 2 great CBs becuase Doom is alot younger than Champ if he comes back 100% from his injury. CHamp will move to FS in a year or two as is

Plus there is always the next can't miss CB next year or the year after

JMOThe odds also would say that Ayers is immediately upgraded with the return of Doom. Ayers, people seem to forget, was among the best defenders we had prior to his injury.

And I don't think we can operate on the assumption that we'll get Champ back. I highly doubt that there will be a CB prospect anywhere close to Peterson next year, and if there is I sincerely hope we're not in a position to draft him.

schaaf
01-28-2011, 09:20 AM
I think the idea with Peterson is that he moves to #1 CB as Champ moves to Free Safety over time, and that high quality DT's are available in round two.

This is why I think our best decision would be to take Peterson. There will still be very good DT's in the draft when we pick next. We cannot pass on a player like Peterson.

bronco0608
01-28-2011, 09:23 AM
You follow Walter football? Really?

/smirks

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:27 AM
I still think you have to take into consideration the team effect of various positions. For instance, you can have a great CB (like Bailey), but if you have no pass rush, or a weak Dline, it is going to impact his effectiveness, simply because he spends more time in coverage and more time chasing down runners. In other words, a good Dline extends the life of your secondary. So, do you go with the tier two CB over the tier 3 DT, even if your team is worse off in the pass rush department, or do you go with the DT because he is going to improve overall secondary effectiveness? A CB is not going to have much effect on the play of the Dline, but the Dline has a huge effect on the play of the secondary.

My take is that the teams that draft consistently well use a system more like that described with the pyramid model. The teams that draft poorly tend to use the system you described, ie drafting for short term needs.

Shanahan employed that draft philosophy with terrible results.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:28 AM
You follow Walter football? Really?

/smirks

Coming from a Kiper fanboy, I'll take that as a compliment.

Pony Boy
01-28-2011, 09:29 AM
You can also argue that Champ, even if he resigns, will not be around for much longer.

True, but I hate to use the pick to replace Bailey, it seems like we are using the #2 pick to stay in the same place (like treading water)

listopencil
01-28-2011, 09:30 AM
This is why I think our best decision would be to take Peterson. There will still be very good DT's in the draft when we pick next. We cannot pass on a player like Peterson.

Well, everything I've read says that going best player available is the way to build a team. I'm not suggesting that a team should be stupid about it, but having two great CB's is not a bad thing.

listopencil
01-28-2011, 09:31 AM
True, but I hate to use the pick to replace Bailey, it seems like we are using the #2 pick to stay in the same place (like treading water)

We gotta do what we gotta do. I am intrigued with the thought of Bailey playing Free Safety though.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:32 AM
This is also what makes our season so strange, how we ended up picking No. 2.

We really don't need any of the four positions listed in Tier 1 and Tier 2. We have two NFL starting caliber quarterbacks (IMO), we have a left tackle in Clady who was coming off an injury and had a down year but is regarded as possibly the best young tackle in football, we have the leading sack man from two years ago who happened to be injured and we have a shutdown corner though he does need to be resigned and he is aging.

We're in a position to pick up a quality player from Tier 3, yet we may not need any WRs, and the right DT might not be of good value at pick No. 2 (assuming Fairley goes at No. 1).

If you can take a step back, and look at it from the outside, it really is interesting how this team ended up where it was. Going into the season, there seemed no need for concern because we had Tier 1, Tier 2, half of Tier 3, and we thought we'd signed the other half of Tier 3...yet somehow this team is picking No. 2. Quite amazing, if you believe in this type of team building.It is interesting. My theory is that the defense has become so poor as much due to a lack of continuity as due to a lack of talent, and I think Doom's impact is monumental.

I actually think our greatest lacking is in tier 4, where we have basically zero talent outside of Moreno.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:35 AM
True, but I hate to use the pick to replace Bailey, it seems like we are using the #2 pick to stay in the same place (like treading water)

Think of Syd and Goodman as our starting CBs.

Missouribronc
01-28-2011, 09:39 AM
It is interesting. My theory is that the defense has become so poor as much due to a lack of continuity as due to a lack of talent, and I think Doom's impact is monumental.

I actually think our greatest lacking is in tier 4, where we have basically zero talent outside of Moreno.

And tier four doesn't have a lot of top-flight talent in this draft. RBs, 4-3 linebackers, right tackles, all not notable positions this year...

Rohirrim
01-28-2011, 09:42 AM
My take is that the teams that draft consistently well use a system more like that described with the pyramid model. The teams that draft poorly tend to use the system you described, ie drafting for short term needs.

Shanahan employed that draft philosophy with terrible results.

To paraphrase Captain Willard, with Shanahan, I didn't see any draft philosophy at all.

I don't believe that any systemic approach is the way to go. Then you get locked into the dictates of the system. Right now, next season, a pass rushing DT or DE will improve this team more than a shut down corner will. Maybe if your concept is based on some five year window, the pyramid makes sense.

Missouribronc
01-28-2011, 09:47 AM
To paraphrase Captain Willard, with Shanahan, I didn't see any draft philosophy at all.

I don't believe that any systemic approach is the way to go. Then you get locked into the dictates of the system. Right now, next season, a pass rushing DT or DE will improve this team more than a shut down corner will. Maybe if your concept is based on some five year window, the pyramid makes sense.

So, what you're saying is Denver should draft a punter at No. 2?

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:47 AM
And tier four doesn't have a lot of top-flight talent in this draft. RBs, 4-3 linebackers, right tackles, all not notable positions this year...

That's another reason I like Peterson. He's an elite prospect at a high value position. Also a position where we have a lot of question marks.

Then we can flesh out tiers 3-4 with value players with the two (hopefully 3 with an Orton trade) 2nd rounders and a 3rd rounder.

I'm really hoping that Paea drops into the 2nd round with his injury. Getting Peterson and Paea would be dreamy.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 09:53 AM
To paraphrase Captain Willard, with Shanahan, I didn't see any draft philosophy at all.Ha, true.

I don't believe that any systemic approach is the way to go. Then you get locked into the dictates of the system. Right now, next season, a pass rushing DT or DE will improve this team more than a shut down corner will. Maybe if your concept is based on some five year window, the pyramid makes sense.Of course any systematic approach is going to have common sense input.

I absolutely think that a draft philosophy should be based on a 5 year window. You should always be looking to get the players who you feel will have the most impact over the course of their career.

Looking to next season is the definition of "short-sighted"

CEH
01-28-2011, 10:21 AM
The odds also would say that Ayers is immediately upgraded with the return of Doom. Ayers, people seem to forget, was among the best defenders we had prior to his injury.

And I don't think we can operate on the assumption that we'll get Champ back. I highly doubt that there will be a CB prospect anywhere close to Peterson next year, and if there is I sincerely hope we're not in a position to draft him.

Do me a favor. Present a baseline of your assumptions and maybe I'll change my mind

Is Champ going to be a Bronco?
Is Ayers upgradable?

These are querstions the FO will have a direct answer to when building for the draft. Right now if you leave them open-ended then sure Perterson would make more sense if Champ left.

What if Champ stays and Ayers is not the starting DE.

This there an unwritten rule that you can only have two quality DE. NYG would say no

footstepsfrom#27
01-28-2011, 10:31 AM
So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.
It's the smart move. In any draft, especially this one, it's going to be easier to find some defensive linemen that can play than an elite corner. I differ with only one aspect of the rating system for CB's. I think he underestimates how teams value them. Taking half the field away is nothing to sneeze at, but that by itself is only half the story with Peterson because he's big enough we could use him in all kinds of scary looking packages. He's a run stuffer playing one yard off the line if we want that, or a 220 pound edge rusher. I just think when you have a shot at really truly elite talent you can't pass on it. We've got the ammo for adding at least 3 pretty good defensive front 7 players in this draft even if we take Peterson, 4 if we trade Kyle. Or we could trade up and go with guys ranked in the 1st round but settle for two instead. If we grabbed Paea and Taylor plus Peterson would that make our defense look a little different? We're going to need three drafts to fix this team so it doesn't matter when we select these guys, just that we get them.

Paladin
01-28-2011, 10:50 AM
Dallas would likely give a good deal to get Peterson. I am not suggesting a trade. I also favor getting Peterson if he is there. It would seem that Denver will have a pick of three or four fairly unique players (no pun intended). It is all going to depend on the FA (if there is one), and trades ( if they can be done) and what the coaches do with different talents presently on the team. I thought the pyramid was interesting, but it also seemed rather intuitive as a model. How does it differ from what most followers would not have been able to intuit themslves?

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 10:56 AM
Do me a favor. Present a baseline of your assumptions and maybe I'll change my mind

Is Champ going to be a Bronco?
Is Ayers upgradable?

These are querstions the FO will have a direct answer to when building for the draft. Right now if you leave them open-ended then sure Perterson would make more sense if Champ left.

What if Champ stays and Ayers is not the starting DE.

How about we not operate based on assumptions? Like whether Champ will be back, or whether Ayers is upgradeable.

I'm using an analysis structure as my baseline. You're using assumptions.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 11:08 AM
Dallas would likely give a good deal to get Peterson. I am not suggesting a trade. I also favor getting Peterson if he is there. It would seem that Denver will have a pick of three or four fairly unique players (no pun intended). It is all going to depend on the FA (if there is one), and trades ( if they can be done) and what the coaches do with different talents presently on the team. I thought the pyramid was interesting, but it also seemed rather intuitive as a model. How does it differ from what most followers would not have been able to intuit themslves?
I think many on the OM would use a structure that looks more like this

Tier 1-QB
Tier 2-LDE,DT
Tier 3-DT,RDE
Tier 4-OL
Tier 5-Rush LB, MLB,
Tier 6-#3 DE #3 DT
Tier 7-#4 DE #4 DT
Tier 8-Kickers, punters, CBs, Safeties, RBs, WRs

Rohirrim
01-28-2011, 11:11 AM
If we were to apply all of this to the Broncos, and Tebow is the starting QB, shouldn't we be going after a RT first?

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 11:14 AM
If we were to apply all of this to the Broncos, and Tebow is the starting QB, shouldn't we be going after a RT first?

It's certainly a legitimate question.

CEH
01-28-2011, 11:28 AM
How about we not operate based on assumptions? Like whether Champ will be back, or whether Ayers is upgradeable.

I'm using an analysis structure as my baseline. You're using assumptions.

Tier II includes CBs and DEs both available at #2

Who do you select and why if you are not using assumptions like Doom will be better due to the return of Ayers and/or Champ will not be back.

Those were both your assumptions since you initally responded to my post with these two assumptions

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 11:34 AM
Tier II includes CBs and DEs both available at #2

Who do you select and why if you are not using assumptions like Doom will be better due to the return of Ayers and/or Champ will not be back.

Those are both your assumptions
Those aren't my assumptions.

I like Peterson because I'm NOT ASSUMING Champ will be back and because Ayers is a better player than Cox or anyone else we have at CB who's guaranteed to be on the roster next year. None of that assumes anything.

The one thing I speculated on was that Ayers will likely have more impact with the presence of Dumervil on the other side.

epicSocialism4tw
01-28-2011, 11:35 AM
That pyramid may work in a vacuum, but I'm afraid that thats not how NFL front offices go about making their picks.

I would expect that they go more with gut feel than they do a convoluted system like this one. Once they identify players on tape, they interview them and then go by feel.

Carmelo15
01-28-2011, 11:38 AM
I tend to agree with Dedhed and this article. Good read.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 12:23 PM
That pyramid may work in a vacuum, but I'm afraid that thats not how NFL front offices go about making their picks.

I would expect that they go more with gut feel than they do a convoluted system like this one. Once they identify players on tape, they interview them and then go by feel.

I think that gut feel comes into play when you're working on the evaluation process and you're putting together you're draft board, but I highly doubt that there are many FOs who just wing it and go by feel.

I would bet that nearly every team in the league operates on a system of some kind. Not necessarily the one listed here, but I bet there are more than a few that are far more complex and convoluted.

With the pressure and importance of these decisions it would be extremely dangerous, imo, to rely on a gut feeling on draft day. There are way too many emotions, adrenaline, etc involved to be able to trust what your gut says.

epicSocialism4tw
01-28-2011, 12:26 PM
I think that gut feel comes into play when you're working on the evaluation process and you're putting together you're draft board, but I highly doubt that there are many FOs who just wing it and go by feel.

I would bet that nearly every team in the league operates on a system of some kind. Not necessarily the one listed here, but I bet there are more than a few that are far more complex and convoluted.

With the pressure and importance of these decisions it would be extremely dangerous, imo, to rely on a gut feeling on draft day. There are way too many emotions, adrenaline, etc involved to be able to trust what your gut says.

Gut feel comes from doing your due dilligence. I'm sure that McD had a gut feel about Tebow because of the way he knew his stuff. That gut feel led McD to take Tebow before other people believed he would be taken...ahead of his perceived "value". From all appearances, McD made his decision to target Tebow before the draft.

I think that the convoluted value stuff comes with evaluating trades.

But all told, these guys are football people, not statisticians.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 12:34 PM
Gut feel comes from doing your due dilligence. I'm sure that McD had a gut feel about Tebow because of the way he knew his stuff. That gut feel led McD to take Tebow before other people believed he would be taken...ahead of his perceived "value". From all appearances, McD made his decision to target Tebow before the draft.

You seem to be describing the exact opposite of "gut feel". If McDaniels was targeting Tebow before the draft he did so based on analyzing all the variables and coming to the conclusion that Tebow had a 1st round value based on that evaluation.

epicSocialism4tw
01-28-2011, 12:38 PM
You seem to be describing the exact opposite of "gut feel". If McDaniels was targeting Tebow before the draft he did so based on analyzing all the variables and coming to the conclusion that Tebow had a 1st round value based on that evaluation.

McD's evaluation of Tebow: Tape + Interview

Its exactly what you would expect from a football coach.

Intuition ("gut feel") is not only useful without information, it is honed with information.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 12:45 PM
McD's evaluation of Tebow: Tape + Interview

Its exactly what you would expect from a football coach.

Intuition ("gut feel") is not only useful without information, it is honed with information.

An intuitive decision is pretty much the opposite of an informed decision.

footstepsfrom#27
01-28-2011, 12:45 PM
To paraphrase Captain Willard, with Shanahan, I didn't see any draft philosophy at all.

I don't believe that any systemic approach is the way to go. Then you get locked into the dictates of the system. Right now, next season, a pass rushing DT or DE will improve this team more than a shut down corner will. Maybe if your concept is based on some five year window, the pyramid makes sense.
No, but a three year rebuilding period is what it will take if we do it right. Part of the problem we're having is because the team in the past has tried to take the approach they weren't rebuilding just reloading. This team has to be re-built, and it will take three years. So "when" we draft someone to do X, Y or Z is not as important. This defense is loaded with holes and three years from now Champ is probably not a major part of our plans even if he's still here. You take talent if you possibly can. We've got multiple ways to move up for D-line players ranked highly enough to come in and start pretty quickly for this team.

epicSocialism4tw
01-28-2011, 12:47 PM
An intuitive decision is pretty much the opposite of an informed decision.

Not at all.

Draft picks are gambles. Its literally impossible to have the information that you need to ensure that they work out. You need a little intuition.

footstepsfrom#27
01-28-2011, 12:53 PM
I look at it like this. If Fairley was available at #2 and we passed on him, the drop-off to the next level of DT is not that large. The Bama kid might wind up being better in fact. Then the next drop off to Paea, etc...is also n ot that far. That's where we'd be able to get back up to. On the other hand, the drop off from Peterson to another CB level is more dramatic, and as the next best the kid from Nebraska probaly won't last past the top 10 so trading down wouldn't net us enough. Dropping to the 3rd tier the talent level will fall much further still. Why take a player at the top of the draft that might not be that much better than the next DT level below him, pass up a player with a far wider gap between himself and the next level in the process and ignore the fact that the depth of the draft is in the DT spot anyway?

Requiem
01-28-2011, 12:56 PM
The gaps between Fairley/Dareus and their DT counterparts is enormous. The ambiguity in draft value really lies between the edge rushers in this class.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 01:08 PM
Not at all.

Draft picks are gambles. Its literally impossible to have the information that you need to ensure that they work out. You need a little intuition.

You're skirting the argument. You use intuition in gathering the information, not in place of the information.

And an intuitive decision IS the opposite of an informed one.

epicSocialism4tw
01-28-2011, 01:10 PM
You're skirting the argument. You use intuition in gathering the information, not in place of the information.

And an intuitive decision IS the opposite of an informed one.

I wouldnt divide the two concepts, but would instead suggest that one compliments the other.

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 01:14 PM
The gaps between Fairley/Dareus and their DT counterparts is enormous. The ambiguity in draft value really lies between the edge rushers in this class.
I disagree. I think that there will be at least 3-4 DTs who will be as productive as those two.

DT, by it's nature is a position that players can be coached into being great by adding strength and technique. It's why the Steelers have great ones despite investing very few high draft picks on DL.

With edge rushers there is more of an emphasis on god given talent. Sure they can still improve, but because of the space the impact of speed and athleticism on the edge is far more difficult to create through coaching. There are only a few of those edge guys with elite burst/speed in any draft.

Missouribronc
01-28-2011, 01:34 PM
Because I've heard this more in reference to team-building, rather than a drafting philosophy, and thought the author was probably using this same idea of team-building it and then asserting it to the draft, I went and put the USA Today salary database for 2009-2010 into a spreadsheet to see who the top salaried players were for that season (This year's numbers aren't out yet, per USA Today).

Top 50:

PLAYER SALARY POSITION TEAM
Rivers, Philip $25,556,630 Quarterback San Diego Chargers
Cutler, Jay $22,044,090 Quarterback Chicago Bears
Manning, Eli $20,500,000 Quarterback New York Giants
Warner, Kurt $19,004,680 Quarterback Arizona Cardinals
Hayden, Kelvin $17,480,000 Cornerback Indianapolis Colts
Schaub, Matt $17,000,000 Quarterback Houston Texans
Peppers, Julius $16,683,000 Defensive End Carolina Panthers
Long, Chris $16,592,280 Defensive End St. Louis Rams
Jennings, Greg $16,251,300 Wide Receiver Green Bay Packers
Smith, Antonio $15,507,280 Defensive End Houston Texans
Suggs, Terrell $15,100,000 Defensive End Baltimore Ravens
Brown, Jason $15,007,150 Outside LB St. Louis Rams
Cassel, Matt $15,005,200 Quarterback Kansas City Chiefs
Carey, Vernon $15,000,000 Outside LB Miami Dolphins
Grove, Jake $14,200,000 Outside LB Miami Dolphins
Manning, Peyton $14,005,720 Quarterback Indianapolis Colts
Gamble, Chris $14,005,460 Cornerback Carolina Panthers
Williams, Roy $13,660,320 Wide Receiver Dallas Cowboys
Harrison, James $13,357,280 Linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
Jones-Drew, Ma. $13,100,000 Running Back Jacksonville Jaguars
Dorsey, Glenn $13,070,000 Defensive T Kansas City Chiefs
Brees, Drew $12,989,500 Quarterback New Orleans Saints
Staley, Joe $12,677,280 Outside LB San Francisco 49ers
McNabb, Donovan $12,507,280 Quarterback Philadelphia Eagles
Harvey, Derrick $12,367,500 Defensive End Jacksonville Jaguars
Canty, Chris $12,250,000 Defensive End New York Giants
White, Roddy $12,007,280 Wide Receiver Atlanta Falcons
Asomugha, N. $12,001,560 Cornerback Oakland Raiders
Favre, Brett $12,000,000 Quarterback Minnesota Vikings
Jacobs, Brandon $11,506,110 Running Back New York Giants
Scott, Bart $11,500,000 Linebacker New York Jets
Starks, Max $11,406,240 Outside LB Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell, JaM $11,255,440 Quarterback Oakland Raiders
Haynesworth, Al $11,007,280 Defensive T Washington Redskins
Peters, Jason $10,504,680 Outside LB Philadelphia Eagles
Lewis, Ray $10,006,240 Linebacker Baltimore Ravens
Gross, Jordan $10,005,980 Outside LB Carolina Panthers
Pace, Calvin $10,000,000 Linebacker New York Jets
Robinson, Dunta $9,957,000 Cornerback Houston Texans
Rhodes, Kerry $9,950,000 Safety New York Jets
Bryant, Antonio $9,890,760 Wide Receiver Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coles, Lav $9,750,000 Wide Receiver Cincinnati Bengals
Dansby, Karlos $9,680,340 Linebacker Arizona Cardinals
Palmer, Carson $9,500,000 Quarterback Cincinnati Bengals
Boley, Michael $9,500,000 Linebacker New York Giants
Colombo, Marc $9,449,339 Outside LB Dallas Cowboys
Ellis, Sedrick $9,366,000 Defensive T New Orleans Saints
Vilma, Jonathan $9,300,000 Linebacker New Orleans Saints
Gholston, V $9,186,240 Defensive End New York Jets
Rivers, Keith $9,185,000 Linebacker Cincinnati Bengals


Tier 1 Players - QBs - 12
Tier 2 Players - LT, RDE, CB, ROLB - 0 Ts, 7 RDEs, 12 OLBs, 4 CBs
Tier 3 Players - DT, WR - 2 DTs, 5 WRs
Tier 4 Players - S, NT, LE, 4-3 ILB, RBs, RTs - 1 S, 1 NT, 0 LE, 2 4-3 LBs, 2 RBs, 0 RTs

Interesting...

schaaf
01-28-2011, 01:46 PM
I find it more interesting Denver doesn't have one on that list

CEH
01-28-2011, 02:33 PM
I wouldnt divide the two concepts, but would instead suggest that one compliments the other.

I tend to agree

Drafting is both an Art and a Scrience

If it was just so easy to look at a chart and make informed decisison based on tape, etc then the NFL wouldn't have so many misses

It's the Art (gut feel) part of the whole process that can't be defined

Missouribronc
01-28-2011, 02:44 PM
I find it more interesting Denver doesn't have one on that list

There were seven teams that did not have a player in the top 50 of paid players that season, Patriots, Bills, Browns, Lions, Titans, Broncos and Seahawks.

Lee Evans was 51 (Bills), Champ Bailey was 52 (Broncos).

D.J. Williams was 57. Andre Goodman was 69.

I don't think not having a top 50 paid player in the league is an indictment...

Dedhed
01-28-2011, 02:47 PM
I wouldnt divide the two concepts, but would instead suggest that one compliments the other.

You're not getting what I'm saying.

Carmelo15
01-28-2011, 02:52 PM
Because I've heard this more in reference to team-building, rather than a drafting philosophy, and thought the author was probably using this same idea of team-building it and then asserting it to the draft, I went and put the USA Today salary database for 2009-2010 into a spreadsheet to see who the top salaried players were for that season (This year's numbers aren't out yet, per USA Today).

Top 50:

PLAYER SALARY POSITION TEAM
Rivers, Philip $25,556,630 Quarterback San Diego Chargers
Cutler, Jay $22,044,090 Quarterback Chicago Bears
Manning, Eli $20,500,000 Quarterback New York Giants
Warner, Kurt $19,004,680 Quarterback Arizona Cardinals
Hayden, Kelvin $17,480,000 Cornerback Indianapolis Colts
Schaub, Matt $17,000,000 Quarterback Houston Texans
Peppers, Julius $16,683,000 Defensive End Carolina Panthers
Long, Chris $16,592,280 Defensive End St. Louis Rams
Jennings, Greg $16,251,300 Wide Receiver Green Bay Packers
Smith, Antonio $15,507,280 Defensive End Houston Texans
Suggs, Terrell $15,100,000 Defensive End Baltimore Ravens
Brown, Jason $15,007,150 Outside LB St. Louis Rams
Cassel, Matt $15,005,200 Quarterback Kansas City Chiefs
Carey, Vernon $15,000,000 Outside LB Miami Dolphins
Grove, Jake $14,200,000 Outside LB Miami Dolphins
Manning, Peyton $14,005,720 Quarterback Indianapolis Colts
Gamble, Chris $14,005,460 Cornerback Carolina Panthers
Williams, Roy $13,660,320 Wide Receiver Dallas Cowboys
Harrison, James $13,357,280 Linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
Jones-Drew, Ma. $13,100,000 Running Back Jacksonville Jaguars
Dorsey, Glenn $13,070,000 Defensive T Kansas City Chiefs
Brees, Drew $12,989,500 Quarterback New Orleans Saints
Staley, Joe $12,677,280 Outside LB San Francisco 49ers
McNabb, Donovan $12,507,280 Quarterback Philadelphia Eagles
Harvey, Derrick $12,367,500 Defensive End Jacksonville Jaguars
Canty, Chris $12,250,000 Defensive End New York Giants
White, Roddy $12,007,280 Wide Receiver Atlanta Falcons
Asomugha, N. $12,001,560 Cornerback Oakland Raiders
Favre, Brett $12,000,000 Quarterback Minnesota Vikings
Jacobs, Brandon $11,506,110 Running Back New York Giants
Scott, Bart $11,500,000 Linebacker New York Jets
Starks, Max $11,406,240 Outside LB Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell, JaM $11,255,440 Quarterback Oakland Raiders
Haynesworth, Al $11,007,280 Defensive T Washington Redskins
Peters, Jason $10,504,680 Outside LB Philadelphia Eagles
Lewis, Ray $10,006,240 Linebacker Baltimore Ravens
Gross, Jordan $10,005,980 Outside LB Carolina Panthers
Pace, Calvin $10,000,000 Linebacker New York Jets
Robinson, Dunta $9,957,000 Cornerback Houston Texans
Rhodes, Kerry $9,950,000 Safety New York Jets
Bryant, Antonio $9,890,760 Wide Receiver Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coles, Lav $9,750,000 Wide Receiver Cincinnati Bengals
Dansby, Karlos $9,680,340 Linebacker Arizona Cardinals
Palmer, Carson $9,500,000 Quarterback Cincinnati Bengals
Boley, Michael $9,500,000 Linebacker New York Giants
Colombo, Marc $9,449,339 Outside LB Dallas Cowboys
Ellis, Sedrick $9,366,000 Defensive T New Orleans Saints
Vilma, Jonathan $9,300,000 Linebacker New Orleans Saints
Gholston, V $9,186,240 Defensive End New York Jets
Rivers, Keith $9,185,000 Linebacker Cincinnati Bengals


Tier 1 Players - QBs - 12
Tier 2 Players - LT, RDE, CB, ROLB - 0 Ts, 7 RDEs, 12 OLBs, 4 CBs
Tier 3 Players - DT, WR - 2 DTs, 5 WRs
Tier 4 Players - S, NT, LE, 4-3 ILB, RBs, RTs - 1 S, 1 NT, 0 LE, 2 4-3 LBs, 2 RBs, 0 RTs

Interesting...

You might want to recheck your tally. Most of those guys listed as "Outside LB"s are actually offensive lineman

cutthemdown
01-28-2011, 09:26 PM
Wow that's a great article, makes good sense. Surprised to see corners so high though. Maybe they are assuming a team has an NFL calibre defense already in place?

It makes sense if you think about. Corner, rush linebacker, weakside DE are all positions that take a ton of athletic ability, WR also. QB the hardest position all around.

schaaf
01-28-2011, 11:29 PM
There were seven teams that did not have a player in the top 50 of paid players that season, Patriots, Bills, Browns, Lions, Titans, Broncos and Seahawks.

Lee Evans was 51 (Bills), Champ Bailey was 52 (Broncos).

D.J. Williams was 57. Andre Goodman was 69.

I don't think not having a top 50 paid player in the league is an indictment...

No, I wasn't saying it as an indictment I just found it interesting I would have thought that Champ would have been there or maybe Dumervil with his new contract

Bronco Yoda
01-28-2011, 11:45 PM
I've been adoment about drafting Front seven. But I'll admit, there's been some pretty good arguments for Peterson here.

Dedhed
01-29-2011, 06:29 AM
It makes sense if you think about. Corner, rush linebacker, weakside DE are all positions that take a ton of athletic ability, WR also. QB the hardest position all around.

That's what I think as well. There are some positions that require attributes that can't be coached up or created with anything but DNA, and the tiers in this pyramid seem to reflect that idea.

footstepsfrom#27
01-29-2011, 08:17 AM
The gaps between Fairley/Dareus and their DT counterparts is enormous. The ambiguity in draft value really lies between the edge rushers in this class.
Define "enormous". I've seen projections for Stephen Paea as high as the 8th pick. In fact he and Dareus may go right next to each other, depending on how his knee is and the combine results. I don't think that gap is as large as you think. These guys frequently don't go exactly where people think they will. And the evaluation process itself is flawed since it's a best guess kind of thing. If we're anywhere in the top 10 we're in good shape for fixing the line with a very good inside player if that's the direction they go.

Mediator12
01-29-2011, 11:21 AM
This is a very well thought out attempt at giving value to players. However, it really takes a swing for the fences on the CB being a true tier 2 position in today's NFL. His first 2 assumptions totally take away from any credibility for the rest of the position analysis. Here they are broken down:

1. An elite cornerback simply takes half the field away. Once an elite corner can shut down the opponent's best receiver, you take away more than just one player on offense - you take away quarterback's best option to throw the football. Without Revis, there is simply no way the Jets make the playoffs and go to the AFC Championship game last season.

Nothing is further from the truth in today's NFL. In fact, when the Jets played their normal package defense against New England letting Revis try and go one on one and Take away their best WR, NE beat them 45-3! Their Playoff win was about covering with eight in zone and rushing 3 players effectively! Revis NEVER shut down one side of the field all year, because NFL offenses no longer play 21 personnel anymore as their predominant package! This assumption is 5-10 years too old. Good offenses regularly send 4-5 players out in patterns in today's game, and that means the top CB can only cover 1/4 to a 1/5 of the field, not a half anymore. The half the field argument left the party once Deion retired and offenses started incorporating more spread principles in their passing and running attacks. This is a really bad assumption and it can not be used anymore, especially as the primary reason to "Value" a position.

2. Corners play a vital role in run support not necessarily in terms of stopping teams to 2- and 3-yard gains, but by taking away the explosive chunks of yardage against the run whether it is shedding block or making an open-field tackle.

This is the second reason CB's are valued? Really? Really? No, this is not the second reason why CB's should be valued. Any CB who predominantly plays in a press man scheme is not directly involved in the running game by scheme! That means Asomugha, Revis, Woodson and any other "Shutdown CB" who lines up and takes away another teams Top WR like Mike says will not have a gap or primary responsibility to play the run as a CB. The heavy Cover 2 CB has to be able to play the run to his side. This statement alone shows a total lack of scheme knowledge in his assessments and is enough on its own to totally discredit the entire process for me.

3. If you can find an elite corner, then quarterbacks simply stop throwing the ball at what usually is his best receiver, and this forces the offense to execute a passing game in a limited range of space as opposed of using the field sideline-to-sideline.

Finally, this argument has some merit! This is the whole argument and it is not as good as it once was when Deion could be a "shutdown CB". Asomugha does this for OAK every year, and every year they are a top Passing defense. However, they fail to stop the run every year as well and keep getting beat because of it. NFL defense Starts with stopping the run and then having talent enough in the pass rush and the back end to play the pass better than teams can mismatch them. This is the prime reason CB's are LOSING value, not gaining value with NFL teams. CB's by themselves do not change the effectiveness of a total defense. They need a solid run defense, a pass rush, and then they become the icing on the cake. Just like a great safety can provide the run stopping ability and coverage to take a team with a good run defense to the next level as a pass defense.

gunns
01-29-2011, 11:56 AM
I came across this "Positional Value Pyramid" on my favorite draft site. It divides all positions into 6 tiers of value, and has detailed breakdowns of each position within each tier and why it's ranked in that tier.

The criteria used to set the draft value pyramid is:
1. Scarcity: How tough is it to find this position? Are they relatively easy to get in free agency and the NFL Draft, or is this the type of position that is highly sought over on Draft Day and very tough to get in Round 2 (think quarterbacks, left tackles and right defensive ends). For scarcity, a very rare position would get a "3" and a dime-a-dozen position would get a "1". The reason for this is that a position that is hard to find has more value since it is rare - think of it like supply and demand. Little supply leads to greater demand, which leads to more positional value.

2. Effectiveness: I had some trouble coming up with a way to define this attribute, but basically it is how valuable is this position to a team winning and losing. I will often refer to a position as being a "low 2" or a "high 2" to distinguish between ratings slightly and make it known when I feel like a position needs more or less than its just due.

3. Money: Some positions cost more than others, and I think this impacts a position's value. I definitely think while quarterbacks are the highest paid position in the game, they get one of the best returns on their investments since they sell jerseys, merchandise and tickets, and get more publicity than any other positions, but here we are just focusing on how much each position costs rather than weighing the ROI (return on investment) of each position, which sounds like a great idea for you economic majors looking for a great idea on next year's thesis you have to write. Expensive positions received a "1" and cheaper positions received a "3" - the cheapness leads to better value and ties up less of the salary cap. Hey, if you want Peyton Manning, he is going to cost a ton of money, but remember I am not weighing in the ROI here.

4. Durability. Some positions lead to shorter careers and more injuries, while come positions have longer careers. Positions with poor durability received a "1" and positions with great durability have a "3".


The tiers are as followed.

Tier 1- Quarterbacks-http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier1.php

Tier 2- Left Tackles, Right Defensive Ends, Cornerbacks, Rush Linebackers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier2.php

Tier 3-Defensive Tackles, #1 Wide Receivers
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier3.php

Tier 4-Safeties, Nose Tackles, Left Ends, 4-3 Inside Linebackers, RBs, and RTs
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier4_2.php

Tier 5- #2 WRs, 3-4 DEs, Weakside LBs, 3-4 ILBs, Interior OL, TE, and #3WR
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_1.php
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier5_2.php

Tier 6- Strongside LBs, Kickers, and Punters
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology234tier6.php

Cornerbacks before DT's? WR's before anything else? Safeties after WR's? Just do not agree with that.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 12:42 PM
That's pretty interesting, but maybe DT's, ILB's are getting a little higher grade lately.

Tombstone RJ
01-29-2011, 01:01 PM
any way you slice it this is a very subjective way to grade out the draft. So many variables when it comes to drafting players... but it's another tool to use when trying to make a decision

Mediator12
01-29-2011, 01:14 PM
any way you slice it this is a very subjective way to grade out the draft. So many variables when it comes to drafting players... but it's another tool to use when trying to make a decision

It's not really a team tool, it's a fan tool.

Teams grade players 2 ways. One general overall grade for any scheme and any team. They use this to determine the range a player may be drafted. It is also how online draft rankings are determined. This is the dreaded reach or value determination that lacks any real value except to the instant draft grades so many idiots produce! This is a perceived value to the league, but not a real grade in that sense. Scouts grades are all over the place in this category after the first 10 or so players.

However, teams base their draft board off the second grade though. This is the teams grade for the player based on scheme, strengths, and mental skillset. Each team knows what type of CB they need, what type of WR, what type of LB. Just because a guy is a top 15 overall graded player, does that make him a good fit for a particular team! Very few Prospects are multi-schematic fits!

I applaud the effort, but its a whole lot of work for not really saying anything useful.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 01:23 PM
It's not really a team tool, it's a fan tool.

Teams grade players 2 ways. One general overall grade for any scheme and any team. They use this to determine the range a player may be drafted. It is also how online draft rankings are determined. This is the dreaded reach or value determination that lacks any real value except to the instant draft grades so many idiots produce! This is a perceived value to the league, but not a real grade in that sense. Scouts grades are all over the place in this category after the first 10 or so players.

However, teams base their draft board off the second grade though. This is the teams grade for the player based on scheme, strengths, and mental skillset. Each team knows what type of CB they need, what type of WR, what type of LB. Just because a guy is a top 15 overall graded player, does that make him a good fit for a particular team! Very few Prospects are multi-schematic fits!

I applaud the effort, but its a whole lot of work for not really saying anything useful.

So what's your value/grade for the Broncos?

Mediator12
01-29-2011, 01:26 PM
So what's your value/grade for the Broncos?

What Value/Grade? I can do that for individual players, but not for the team, and not until we see what scheme they want to run on both sides of the ball.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 01:36 PM
This is a very well thought out attempt at giving value to players. However, it really takes a swing for the fences on the CB being a true tier 2 position in today's NFL. His first 2 assumptions totally take away from any credibility for the rest of the position analysis. Here they are broken down:



Nothing is further from the truth in today's NFL. In fact, when the Jets played their normal package defense against New England letting Revis try and go one on one and Take away their best WR, NE beat them 45-3! Their Playoff win was about covering with eight in zone and rushing 3 players effectively! Revis NEVER shut down one side of the field all year, because NFL offenses no longer play 21 personnel anymore as their predominant package! This assumption is 5-10 years too old. Good offenses regularly send 4-5 players out in patterns in today's game, and that means the top CB can only cover 1/4 to a 1/5 of the field, not a half anymore. The half the field argument left the party once Deion retired and offenses started incorporating more spread principles in their passing and running attacks. This is a really bad assumption and it can not be used anymore, especially as the primary reason to "Value" a position.



This is the second reason CB's are valued? Really? Really? No, this is not the second reason why CB's should be valued. Any CB who predominantly plays in a press man scheme is not directly involved in the running game by scheme! That means Asomugha, Revis, Woodson and any other "Shutdown CB" who lines up and takes away another teams Top WR like Mike says will not have a gap or primary responsibility to play the run as a CB. The heavy Cover 2 CB has to be able to play the run to his side. This statement alone shows a total lack of scheme knowledge in his assessments and is enough on its own to totally discredit the entire process for me.



Finally, this argument has some merit! This is the whole argument and it is not as good as it once was when Deion could be a "shutdown CB". Asomugha does this for OAK every year, and every year they are a top Passing defense. However, they fail to stop the run every year as well and keep getting beat because of it. NFL defense Starts with stopping the run and then having talent enough in the pass rush and the back end to play the pass better than teams can mismatch them. This is the prime reason CB's are LOSING value, not gaining value with NFL teams. CB's by themselves do not change the effectiveness of a total defense. They need a solid run defense, a pass rush, and then they become the icing on the cake. Just like a great safety can provide the run stopping ability and coverage to take a team with a good run defense to the next level as a pass defense.

I'm curious - is this all Asomugha? The reason I ask is because Asomugha is an FA this year if there is an FA.

Is Asomugha worth topend CB kind of money? Should Denver go after Asomugha hard? It's tempting to see Champ and Nnamdi on the same Denver team, and it won't cost draft choices, it's just a matter of money.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 01:44 PM
What Value/Grade? I can do that for individual players, but not for the team, and not until we see what scheme they want to run on both sides of the ball.

I was thinking you had some value/grade for some individual players, how they would apply to the Broncos. True, we have no idea what scheme the Broncos will have.

Broncoman13
01-29-2011, 02:20 PM
So basically if Peterson is there at the #2 and the Broncos can't trade down, they have to take him, according to this analysis.

No you take DaQuan Bowers.

Mediator12
01-29-2011, 02:26 PM
I'm curious - is this all Asomugha? The reason I ask is because Asomugha is an FA this year if there is an FA.

Is Asomugha worth topend CB kind of money? Should Denver go after Asomugha hard? It's tempting to see Champ and Nnamdi on the same Denver team, and it won't cost draft choices, it's just a matter of money.

No, its not all Asomugha, it never is. He is very tough on Number 1 WR's though, just like Revis can be. In fact, Asomugha has been as good in coverage as Revis has been the last 2 years, he is just not the best player on the NEW YORK Jets!

Personally, he is on par with Revis as a Cover CB, but neither are as good in run support as Bailey has been his whole career. Asomugha will be a very good FA, but he should not go to the team with the highest offer IMHO, he should go to the best team/Defense who wants him and chase a ring. He has been completely wasted in OAK. If he went to DAL, NYG, or NO he would immediately make them the NFC favorite IMHO. I just want him out of the AFC!

CEH
01-29-2011, 03:11 PM
No you take DaQuan Bowers.

I agree. I think Bowers is the pick at #2. You look at John Fox and where he comes from his philosophy is to generate pass rush with the front 4. An old NYG guy. His draft history with Car was mainly RB/OT/front seven

I don't see him changing that up here in Denver

Peterson is great for us because maybe soemone will want to come up to get him

McDman
01-29-2011, 03:20 PM
Taking Peterson would be a huge mistake. Look how good our defvense has been with Champ the last six years.

footstepsfrom#27
01-29-2011, 03:38 PM
Taking Peterson would be a huge mistake. Look how good our defvense has been with Champ the last six years.
This is a silly argument. You can't look at one player on a defense and make assumptions about the position itself based on how that defense played. Obviously if you have no legitimate NFL starters on your defensive line, and nobody at LB who is worth a damn, you're going to have a horrible defense. This defense would have been far worse without Champ.

As for Mediator's analysis...I think it's WAY overblown. Just because NFL offenses are putting 4 WR's on the field doesn't change the fact that you need DB's who can match up, and matching up with the #1 receiver is still vital. Playmakers are what playoff teams have, on offense and defense. Take away their chief playmaker, you change their offense and force them to do things they don't really want to. Take any QB's #1 receiver away and you severely hamper what they're trying to do even if he does throw it to the #2-4 guys or the TE or whoever. Receivers are now the size of TE's in the 80's on many teams, and San Diego is one of them. A big corner with legitimate NFL coverage skills capable of handling the Moss's, TO's Marshalls and Bowes of the NFL is a nasty nasty defensive weapon. In the case of Peterson, he's big enough and such a great athlete it's possible to design defensive game plans utilizing him that you couldn't otherwise. He's only a junior now, and 222 pounds. He might play even bigger in the NFL. One of the primary advantages of a guy like this is that he's not just a coverage guy. Peterson's an intimiidating presence in the secondary. He make receivers worry about where he is like a big safety does. We have nobody on this team who does that. Champ is a great cover guy and a very good run support CB who can hit but he doesn't engender fear in receivers worrying about where he is. He's 20-30 pounds smaller than most of the receivers he covers. Patrick Peterson will instantly add an element of uncertainty to the mind of every QB he faces. On top of this, he's probably the best return man in the draft. Lord knows we need some way to change field position when we have a crappy defense.

We can draft Peterson and still take three D-linemen in the top two rounds. It's almost always better to draft talent ahead of position concerns, but if you can do both...which is what this amounts to, it's a no brainer.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 03:39 PM
No, its not all Asomugha, it never is. He is very tough on Number 1 WR's though, just like Revis can be. In fact, Asomugha has been as good in coverage as Revis has been the last 2 years, he is just not the best player on the NEW YORK Jets!

Personally, he is on par with Revis as a Cover CB, but neither are as good in run support as Bailey has been his whole career. Asomugha will be a very good FA, but he should not go to the team with the highest offer IMHO, he should go to the best team/Defense who wants him and chase a ring. He has been completely wasted in OAK. If he went to DAL, NYG, or NO he would immediately make them the NFC favorite IMHO. I just want him out of the AFC!

I'm thinking the Broncos should pursue Asomugha. Go ahead and put the best offer out there, if there even is an FA, since March 4th, the FA period, and the CBA target deadline are coexistent.

McDman
01-29-2011, 05:27 PM
This is a silly argument. You can't look at one player on a defense and make assumptions about the position itself based on how that defense played. Obviously if you have no legitimate NFL starters on your defensive line, and nobody at LB who is worth a damn, you're going to have a horrible defense. This defense would have been far worse without Champ.

As for Mediator's analysis...I think it's WAY overblown. Just because NFL offenses are putting 4 WR's on the field doesn't change the fact that you need DB's who can match up, and matching up with the #1 receiver is still vital. Playmakers are what playoff teams have, on offense and defense. Take away their chief playmaker, you change their offense and force them to do things they don't really want to. Take any QB's #1 receiver away and you severely hamper what they're trying to do even if he does throw it to the #2-4 guys or the TE or whoever. Receivers are now the size of TE's in the 80's on many teams, and San Diego is one of them. A big corner with legitimate NFL coverage skills capable of handling the Moss's, TO's Marshalls and Bowes of the NFL is a nasty nasty defensive weapon. In the case of Peterson, he's big enough and such a great athlete it's possible to design defensive game plans utilizing him that you couldn't otherwise. He's only a junior now, and 222 pounds. He might play even bigger in the NFL. One of the primary advantages of a guy like this is that he's not just a coverage guy. Peterson's an intimiidating presence in the secondary. He make receivers worry about where he is like a big safety does. We have nobody on this team who does that. Champ is a great cover guy and a very good run support CB who can hit but he doesn't engender fear in receivers worrying about where he is. He's 20-30 pounds smaller than most of the receivers he covers. Patrick Peterson will instantly add an element of uncertainty to the mind of every QB he faces. On top of this, he's probably the best return man in the draft. Lord knows we need some way to change field position when we have a crappy defense.

We can draft Peterson and still take three D-linemen in the top two rounds. It's almost always better to draft talent ahead of position concerns, but if you can do both...which is what this amounts to, it's a no brainer.

Its not a silly argument. We've had the best corner in the game and without fixing our defensive line he hasn't helped us win. If we take Peterson that more than likely means we let Champ walk. Why replace a guaranteed good player with a rookie who has potential?

We've continually ignored the dline and it's bitten us in the ass every year. It would be asinine to take a cb and make the same mistake again. Its ridiculous. Peterson would be a lesser Champ for a couple years while we'd have to wait another year to rebuild our line. It's time we stop trying to get d line in the lower rounds.

Look at many of the elite deffensive teams, they don't have stellar corners, they have great d lines. A corner back can be made to look good with a great d line.

Cito Pelon
01-29-2011, 05:41 PM
Fox, from the interviews I've heard has been most adamant about building the defensive line. Maybe that leads toward a 4-3, I don't know.

footstepsfrom#27
01-29-2011, 06:15 PM
Its not a silly argument. We've had the best corner in the game and without fixing our defensive line he hasn't helped us win. If we take Peterson that more than likely means we let Champ walk. Why replace a guaranteed good player with a rookie who has potential?
So if team X has a great middle linebacker and hasn't won, MLB's are unimportant, or less important? You're making it a zero sum game and it's not. First off, there's no reason to believe we have to let Champ walk. In factg we could take full advantage of Champ even as he's getting older. The point on Champ is, will he be there for us in 3 years when this team is ready to contend? He'll be on the downside for sure at that point as a CB, but as a FS he'd be steller. Plugging Peterson in just gives us not only another playmaker, but a 2nd shutdown type CB has the ability to really severely help the pass rush as well. Even if that wasn't true, it's nonsense that we can't address the D-line with starting quality NFL talent in this draft, considered deepest in the defensive line. We can use as many as four picks in the 2nd and 3rd round on guys with legitimate NFL talent. We could move up and snag another 1st rounder as well if we want to, and if we tade Orton possibly even two.
We've continually ignored the dline and it's bitten us in the ass every year. It would be asinine to take a cb and make the same mistake again. Its ridiculous. Peterson would be a lesser Champ for a couple years while we'd have to wait another year to rebuild our line. It's time we stop trying to get d line in the lower rounds.
I was screaming for D-line help in here since the days of Luther Ellis and hearing people pooh-pooh this idea all the way up till Bates system finally fell apart. But you're missing the point. This is a great draft in which to take full advantage of having the ability to select BOTH a great playmaker who can benefit the team on both defense and special teams as among the elite in the league from the word go, but it's a chance to add really good D-line talent at the same time. People seem to think the secondary is set here but it's a mess. Dawkins is done, our prized rookie could be in jail soon, Champ will be another year older, the high picks spent on defensive backs by McDaniels haven't panned out. We're in no shape to defend teams like San Diego with big, talented receivers. We need playmakers above all else. This guy's the best playmaker in the draft, probably the best pure athlete in the draft, and considered by a lot of scouts a once-in-a-decade player at the position.
Look at many of the elite deffensive teams, they don't have stellar corners, they have great d lines. A corner back can be made to look good with a great d line.
And the reverse is also true, hence the term "coverage sack". We need to build this defense on talent as much as possible. We're probably not going to have a shot at Fairley anyway since it looks ike Carolilna or someone who trades up with them will take him first. That leaves Dareus in the next spot unless we want another edge rusher. If we want an interior DT, which is where the beef is, we go with Dareus. How much better is he than Paea? Every year these guys rise and fall and trade places, and for all we know Paea winds up better. It's a crap shoot...remember? Dareus is a nice player but is he elite? Is he truly a All Pro potential talent? I'm not sure I've heard it said that he is. I think you build an elite defense by drafting elite talent. You do a great job of scouting players that can be wonderful role guys also but on any team you've only got so many opportunities to put a superstar in place. That's the difference maker, the playmaker, the elite guy that can force teams to have to adjust what they do best. That's the guy I want, not a guy who is really good but not quite the best, and that's where I think the level is here. I'm not completely sure the top D-line guys aren't just stars, not superstars. This kid can be more, he can be the very best.

Mediator12
01-30-2011, 12:45 PM
This is a silly argument. You can't look at one player on a defense and make assumptions about the position itself based on how that defense played. Obviously if you have no legitimate NFL starters on your defensive line, and nobody at LB who is worth a damn, you're going to have a horrible defense. This defense would have been far worse without Champ.

As for Mediator's analysis...I think it's WAY overblown. Just because NFL offenses are putting 4 WR's on the field doesn't change the fact that you need DB's who can match up, and matching up with the #1 receiver is still vital. Playmakers are what playoff teams have, on offense and defense. Take away their chief playmaker, you change their offense and force them to do things they don't really want to. Take any QB's #1 receiver away and you severely hamper what they're trying to do even if he does throw it to the #2-4 guys or the TE or whoever. Receivers are now the size of TE's in the 80's on many teams, and San Diego is one of them. A big corner with legitimate NFL coverage skills capable of handling the Moss's, TO's Marshalls and Bowes of the NFL is a nasty nasty defensive weapon. In the case of Peterson, he's big enough and such a great athlete it's possible to design defensive game plans utilizing him that you couldn't otherwise. He's only a junior now, and 222 pounds. He might play even bigger in the NFL. One of the primary advantages of a guy like this is that he's not just a coverage guy. Peterson's an intimiidating presence in the secondary. He make receivers worry about where he is like a big safety does. We have nobody on this team who does that. Champ is a great cover guy and a very good run support CB who can hit but he doesn't engender fear in receivers worrying about where he is. He's 20-30 pounds smaller than most of the receivers he covers. Patrick Peterson will instantly add an element of uncertainty to the mind of every QB he faces. On top of this, he's probably the best return man in the draft. Lord knows we need some way to change field position when we have a crappy defense.

We can draft Peterson and still take three D-linemen in the top two rounds. It's almost always better to draft talent ahead of position concerns, but if you can do both...which is what this amounts to, it's a no brainer.

Dude, you just do not get it do you? This is not about Peterson, it's about the value of an Elite DB. That value has dropped significantly as the rest of the offense is no longer as needy of the Number one WR to score points anymore.

The best offenses can beat you even when you take away their number one WR with a Shutdown CB. The best offenses force you to match up in the nickel with 11 personnel. DL are more important in building a defense because they impact all 70 plays instead of 40.

Nothing in your statement comes remotely close to changing that. Nothing. Your argument is that Peterson is a special player, which he is. However, no matter HOW special he is, it does not change his influence on the defense more than Revis, Asomugha, or Bailey. He simply will not make the difference you WISH he could, because he is a special player.

As for my argument being way overblown, you need way more than what you have provided. Show me an example of a CB without a legit front seven who made a difference in history. Good luck, one does not exist, and its even worse in today's NFL with the new illegal contact emphasis. A CB influences much less of the game than a 3 down Dominant DL. A dominant Pass rusher keeps one of the five Receivers in to block and makes a secondaries Job easier. A dominant CB shut's down one of 5 eligible receivers most of the time, but can not cover "half the field" anymore. Great QB's like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers will simply find the next target and get the job done. Running QB's will just exploit the man coverage and run for first down's. Running teams can just pound the rock and make the CB irrelevant as a cover guy. A "Shutdown CB" can be made irrelevant all too many ways by a great offensive team.

The reason Revis can be so effective is that the Jets Stop the run! Asomugha is wasted in OAK because of this same fact. OAK can not stop the run and teams can exploit their defense in other ways. May I remind you, Asomugha has never played in a playoff game, because the rest of his defense is below average! Bailey has been great in DEN, but as his front seven declined the teams defense declined WITH HIM. Bailey was unreal with a credible run defense and Al Wilson in the Nickle. As Soon as Al left and the Browncos run defense stalled and was discarded, Champ was not as effective. DEN went from above average defensively in all categories, to league's bottom 3. How could they get much worse than that as you said above?

The problem with your reasoning is this: You overvalue a "shutdown CB". They do not make elite defenses without a credible Front seven. DEN does not have a credible front seven and has not since 2005.

NFLBRONCO
01-30-2011, 01:20 PM
I expect DL taken with top pick. I also expect us to trade down.

Arkie
01-31-2011, 10:32 AM
Cornerbacks before DT's? WR's before anything else? Safeties after WR's? Just do not agree with that.

#1 WRs are listed in tier 3. He said there are only nine #1 WRs--Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree. Give or take a WR or two that you may not agree with, and there are only about 10 elite WRs that are tier 3. All the rest are tier 5.

TheElusiveKyleOrton
01-31-2011, 11:02 AM
I understand the desire for front 7. Believe me, I've been screaming about it same as most of you for several years now.

However, this defense is NOT going to be fixed in one off-season. You get the elite-level player at the top of the draft, and get a slightly-lower rated front 7 guy in the second round and beyond.

Peterson will be a starter on whichever team he goes to immediately and likely for the next 10 years. Can't say that -- for sure -- about the front 7 guys.

crowebomber
01-31-2011, 11:27 AM
I think the idea with Peterson is that he moves to #1 CB as Champ moves to Free Safety over time, and that high quality DT's are available in round two.

This.

McDman
01-31-2011, 12:12 PM
#1 WRs are listed in tier 3. He said there are only nine #1 WRs--Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree. Give or take a WR or two that you may not agree with, and there are only about 10 elite WRs that are tier 3. All the rest are tier 5.

Marshall is not an elite number 1 receiver, over his career he has averaged less than six touchdowns a year. He's a glorified possession receiver.

cutthemdown
01-31-2011, 12:26 PM
#1 WRs are listed in tier 3. He said there are only nine #1 WRs--Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree. Give or take a WR or two that you may not agree with, and there are only about 10 elite WRs that are tier 3. All the rest are tier 5.

Old news. Get Moss, Smith, Marshall off there. Also Crabtree hasn't shown he belongs yet I would take Nicks over him. Hell I would take Kenny Britts flashes over crabtree.

footstepsfrom#27
01-31-2011, 01:06 PM
Dude, you just do not get it do you? This is not about Peterson, it's about the value of an Elite DB. That value has dropped significantly as the rest of the offense is no longer as needy of the Number one WR to score points anymore.
It is actually about Peterson, because his physical size and skils make him a game changer and a challenge that has to be planned for, a guy who is capable fo forcing teams to make unique adjustments. He's different thant Champ and Reevis from this respect, and you don't get a shot at a guy like that very often and you should take it when one comes along. As a college junior he's already gained over 35 pounds since he got to LSU. There's probably no reason he can't play at close to 230 pounds in the NFL since he's almost there now. This is not just another player who can by lumped in physically with what we normally assume about corners. This is an opportunity to fundamentally change the way one position on the team is played in such a way that the possibilities offered open additional opportunites to make other players better.
The best offenses can beat you even when you take away their number one WR with a Shutdown CB. The best offenses force you to match up in the nickel with 11 personnel. DL are more important in building a defense because they impact all 70 plays instead of 40.
On one hand you've previously said NFL passing games make it tougher than ever to match up, especially in the nickel, and in the next breadth you're devaluating the guys you need to meet that challenge. Second, you're comparing a single player with the entire defensive ilne or even the front seven as opposed to comparing the POSITION of CB to the POSITION of DT. You can't talk about what Champ did when we went without a playoff win if you don't talk about who the other CB was, in other words, the POSITION has to be looked at, not one of half of it. I agree that a defensive line is vital as a unit both against the rush and the pass and nobody questions that, but just because you draft one defensive linemen at the top of the draft does not assure that your line problems are solved. This draft makes the opportunity to get high caliber players in the D-line available to us later than normal.

There are multiple players we could add capable of starting here, but there is no other defensive player on the board with the versitility and the ability to offer options like Peterson does. And that's before we even talk about game breaking ability in the return game, which we've not had in over a decade now with any consistency. Field position was one of the biggest issues in that horrible 2008 collapse. Shorten the field for your offense, make it easier to put a few more points on the board, you take pressure off the defense.
As for my argument being way overblown, you need way more than what you have provided. Show me an example of a CB without a legit front seven who made a difference in history. Good luck, one does not exist, and its even worse in today's NFL with the new illegal contact emphasis. A CB influences much less of the game than a 3 down Dominant DL. A dominant Pass rusher keeps one of the five Receivers in to block and makes a secondaries Job easier. A dominant CB shut's down one of 5 eligible receivers most of the time, but can not cover "half the field" anymore. Great QB's like Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers will simply find the next target and get the job done. Running QB's will just exploit the man coverage and run for first down's. Running teams can just pound the rock and make the CB irrelevant as a cover guy. A "Shutdown CB" can be made irrelevant all too many ways by a great offensive team.

The reason Revis can be so effective is that the Jets Stop the run! Asomugha is wasted in OAK because of this same fact. OAK can not stop the run and teams can exploit their defense in other ways. May I remind you, Asomugha has never played in a playoff game, because the rest of his defense is below average! Bailey has been great in DEN, but as his front seven declined the teams defense declined WITH HIM. Bailey was unreal with a credible run defense and Al Wilson in the Nickle. As Soon as Al left and the Browncos run defense stalled and was discarded, Champ was not as effective. DEN went from above average defensively in all categories, to league's bottom 3. How could they get much worse than that as you said above?

The problem with your reasoning is this: You overvalue a "shutdown CB". They do not make elite defenses without a credible Front seven. DEN does not have a credible front seven and has not since 2005.
One of the problems I have with this discussion, is that it rarely takes place comparing apples to apples, and how a single position impacts the defense is part of a scheme, part of a larger context that is never accurately recognized in this discussion.

You say defenses can simply throw the ball elsewhere, making a shutdown CB ineffective, which of course they can but at what cost? Everything is a trade-off. Peterson allows you to free up one of the two DB's that would normally be devoted to double coverage on a #1 receiver like Bowe, Marshall or Moss. If you don't have a true shutdown CB, you have to now reconcile yourself to having to devote an extra man just to cover one receiver. The alternative is to allow the opposition to beat you with their best playmaker, never a good option. Defensive coordinators want to take away the other team's best guy, and devoting another DB in coverage simply means that now your dime has become a nickel and you're nickel just became a base defense...except of course that you had to sacrifice a front 7 defender or two to get into that defense to begin with. Peterson changes all that.

If you want to look at the true value of elite coverage CB's, you need two shutdown guys, not one with the way offenses are evolving now. How many NFL teams can lose the majority of their normal production from the #1 and #2 WR spots before the defense even gets out of their base and not sputter as an offense? The Raiders used to use Lester Hayes and Mike Haynes like this and it allowed them to pressure the QB with fewer guys, or blitze that much more effectively. This is part of the context that gets ignored. Since it's true that NFL receivers are getting bigger and bigger, and it's also true that you need better, nor worse defensive play from your secondary, it's also true that a guy like this could ve invaluable in a way that no single DT or DE would be apart from the entire line. We can probably get close to finding the same thing we'd get from Dareus in this draft a little later, but I don't think we can find what Peterson offers anywhere else. It's not either or, it's both. With passing games becoming more prominent, I think we need great coverage guys in the secondary more not less than we used to.

Who is to say that a guy like Cameron Jordan doesn't wind up being the dominant player at this position? Or Paea in the interior D-line? I just don't see the dominating Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Warren Sapp type of player in this draft that has no questions coming in and represents a slam dunk can't miss player. Impact statistics are also meaningless apart from context. Few interior defenisve linemen have played better in their initial seasons than Tony Casillas did when he came into the NFL as the #2 pick in the draft with Atlanta in 1986. With Casillas performing at a pro bowl level, the Falcons were 23-55-1 over the next 5 seasons that Casillas played in Atlanta. My point is, you can compare a single CB to a single DT or DE but not to the "defensive line" or "the front seven".

The Steelers are 17-4 with Troy Polamula in the lineup, and have a losing record without him. When you have a chance to draft an elite talent, you don't pass on it for the benefit of position. I don't think we can lose either way at the end of the day the top 5 are all excellent but for the value you get I think Peterson is too good to pass on.

misturanderson
01-31-2011, 02:03 PM
Marshall is not an elite number 1 receiver, over his career he has averaged less than six touchdowns a year. He's a glorified possession receiver.

Neither are Randy Moss, Steve Smith or Michael Crabtree at this point in their careers. Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jenings should surely be in that list in their place. Just another thing to make me wonder about that guy's ability to scout talent.

Arkie
01-31-2011, 02:48 PM
He should have split the CBs in two groups like the WRs. He put all the CBs in tier 2 because they "shut down half the field." He should have put "shutdown CBs" in tier 2, and all the rest in tier 4 behind the D linemen. Just like the WRs, there's 10 or less in that elite group.

Mediator12
01-31-2011, 04:08 PM
It is actually about Peterson, because his physical size and skils make him a game changer and a challenge that has to be planned for, a guy who is capable fo forcing teams to make unique adjustments. He's different thant Champ and Reevis from this respect, and you don't get a shot at a guy like that very often and you should take it when one comes along. As a college junior he's already gained over 35 pounds since he got to LSU. There's probably no reason he can't play at close to 230 pounds in the NFL since he's almost there now. This is not just another player who can by lumped in physically with what we normally assume about corners. This is an opportunity to fundamentally change the way one position on the team is played in such a way that the possibilities offered open additional opportunites to make other players better.

1. You are still missing the point here. The Elite CB can only influence 1/5th of the routes an offense runs. Also, they do NOT influence the run game in press Man coverage or Press bail. Elite NFL offenses do not run 3 man routes anymore. They spread the field and work every inch of it. They force the Shutdown CB outside of the route progressions and use the other four receivers to gain yards and points. Sure, the elite guy can shut out the top WR if he moves all around the field. However, can your 3rd CB shut out the slot WR is the big question? It is much better to have three solid CB's, than an Elite CB in today's NFL. Having solid CB depth is much better than having Asomugha take the #1 WR out of the game. So, that is the point. The Elite guy gets the press, but its the Sam Shields and Tramon Williams to support Charles Woodson that makes the Packers Pass defense Elite. Plus, a real legit Pass rush to force quicker throws to guys in press man Coverage.

On one hand you've previously said NFL passing games make it tougher than ever to match up, especially in the nickel, and in the next breadth you're devaluating the guys you need to meet that challenge. Second, you're comparing a single player with the entire defensive ilne or even the front seven as opposed to comparing the POSITION of CB to the POSITION of DT. You can't talk about what Champ did when we went without a playoff win if you don't talk about who the other CB was, in other words, the POSITION has to be looked at, not one of half of it. I agree that a defensive line is vital as a unit both against the rush and the pass and nobody questions that, but just because you draft one defensive linemen at the top of the draft does not assure that your line problems are solved. This draft makes the opportunity to get high caliber players in the D-line available to us later than normal.

This is a very strange logic to me. It matters to take an elite CB without first establishing a solid Front seven, yet it does not matter to take an elite DL when you finally get a shot at one? As for the Position argument, I answered that above. The Nickel CB is just as or more important against elite passing teams as the #1 CB in today's NFL. However, great CB's can be drafted much later than great DL. Solid starters at CB are drafted all over the draft, while Solid DL are taken much earlier. Just because you can get a tier 3 DL in the second round does not mean you take a pass to grab a tier 1 DL @ #2. The tier 2 DL may be gone by 25 or so in this draft, even though their are a lot of great DL, that does not mean they will still be available when DEN picks @ the top of round 2.

There are multiple players we could add capable of starting here, but there is no other defensive player on the board with the versitility and the ability to offer options like Peterson does. And that's before we even talk about game breaking ability in the return game, which we've not had in over a decade now with any consistency. Field position was one of the biggest issues in that horrible 2008 collapse. Shorten the field for your offense, make it easier to put a few more points on the board, you take pressure off the defense.

One of the problems I have with this discussion, is that it rarely takes place comparing apples to apples, and how a single position impacts the defense is part of a scheme, part of a larger context that is never accurately recognized in this discussion.

You say defenses can simply throw the ball elsewhere, making a shutdown CB ineffective, which of course they can but at what cost? Everything is a trade-off. Peterson allows you to free up one of the two DB's that would normally be devoted to double coverage on a #1 receiver like Bowe, Marshall or Moss. If you don't have a true shutdown CB, you have to now reconcile yourself to having to devote an extra man just to cover one receiver. The alternative is to allow the opposition to beat you with their best playmaker, never a good option. Defensive coordinators want to take away the other team's best guy, and devoting another DB in coverage simply means that now your dime has become a nickel and you're nickel just became a base defense...except of course that you had to sacrifice a front 7 defender or two to get into that defense to begin with. Peterson changes all that.

If you want to look at the true value of elite coverage CB's, you need two shutdown guys, not one with the way offenses are evolving now. How many NFL teams can lose the majority of their normal production from the #1 and #2 WR spots before the defense even gets out of their base and not sputter as an offense? The Raiders used to use Lester Hayes and Mike Haynes like this and it allowed them to pressure the QB with fewer guys, or blitze that much more effectively. This is part of the context that gets ignored. Since it's true that NFL receivers are getting bigger and bigger, and it's also true that you need better, nor worse defensive play from your secondary, it's also true that a guy like this could ve invaluable in a way that no single DT or DE would be apart from the entire line. We can probably get close to finding the same thing we'd get from Dareus in this draft a little later, but I don't think we can find what Peterson offers anywhere else. It's not either or, it's both. With passing games becoming more prominent, I think we need great coverage guys in the secondary more not less than we used to.

Who is to say that a guy like Cameron Jordan doesn't wind up being the dominant player at this position? Or Paea in the interior D-line? I just don't see the dominating Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Warren Sapp type of player in this draft that has no questions coming in and represents a slam dunk can't miss player. Impact statistics are also meaningless apart from context. Few interior defenisve linemen have played better in their initial seasons than Tony Casillas did when he came into the NFL as the #2 pick in the draft with Atlanta in 1986. With Casillas performing at a pro bowl level, the Falcons were 23-55-1 over the next 5 seasons that Casillas played in Atlanta. My point is, you can compare a single CB to a single DT or DE but not to the "defensive line" or "the front seven".

The Steelers are 17-4 with Troy Polamula in the lineup, and have a losing record without him. When you have a chance to draft an elite talent, you don't pass on it for the benefit of position. I don't think we can lose either way at the end of the day the top 5 are all excellent but for the value you get I think Peterson is too good to pass on.

I almost get this. Almost. The one problem I have is you have already crowned Peterson as a superman who will revolutionize pass defense. I hope he will have that type of effect on the game if DEN drafts him, but its a really shaky proposition. One I would have a hard time supporting, especially after he got worked pretty well in his bowl game! You are assuming Peterson's Talents make him the one most dominating player in the draft, while Prince Amukamara could be the best CB to come out as well. If it was all about talent, I might agree, but it takes more than talent to succeed at the next level as you pointed out about the DL.

As for the DB versus front seven argument, it is a very difficult and complex problem to grasp. I tried to explain this earlier. Defensive schemes are predicated on stopping the run first, then playing coverage behind it. You have to have a front seven who can stop the run first and then rush the passer. Once you have that, you can cover in the passing game much more effectively. If teams commit to running the ball with heavy sets, you can play eight in the box to stop them. However, if the trend is to pass first out of 11 personnel (One RB, and One TE) and your front seven can not stop the run in the nickle you are going to get screwed. This has happened multiple times this year to teams. Notice that CB play has not even come into question yet? The old maxim is it all starts up front is because this is HOW schemes are devised.

The Elite DB will take an average Front seven and make the pass defense better, but may not make the overall defense better at all. This is what happens in OAK with Asomugha. The Elite DL can make the secondary better immediately if teams need to keep receivers in to help block that player. That allows the secondary more coverage options as one less player is out in the pattern to free up space for throwing windows and matchup problems. Sometimes, a Coverage sack comes from being able to cover 4 Receivers with 7 instead of five Receivers with six when you have to blitz to get pressure!

Lastly, the draft is a crapshoot. Peterson could really be the Superman you think he can be, or he could be the next Cromartie, just another Fast and tall DB. Any of the DL could fail too, but this is the best group I have seen mentally in a long time until you get to the third tier guys like Ballard, Bailey, Nevis, and Casey. I get your point on Peterson, I think he will be the highest graded CB to come out since Shawn Springs in '96. I just do not believe he will revolutionize passing defenses the way you believe he can. If he went to PIT, BAL, GB or some other team with an Elite front seven maybe. However, I will maintain the fact I want an Elite Level DL and a second tier DL before i want to go DB with DEN. They need so much help up front and finally have a chance to secure some much needed playmakers there before they need to devote those Resources at CB.

Heck, we do not even know if they plan to play a heavy zone 4-3 like CAR and NO did. Having Peterson and playing a heavy zone defense behind it would be a colossal waste of resources. Let's table this until we find out what scheme DEN is going to run and this argument actually makes sense having.

footstepsfrom#27
01-31-2011, 06:03 PM
I almost get this. Almost. The one problem I have is you have already crowned Peterson as a superman who will revolutionize pass defense. I hope he will have that type of effect on the game if DEN drafts him, but its a really shaky proposition. One I would have a hard time supporting, especially after he got worked pretty well in his bowl game! You are assuming Peterson's Talents make him the one most dominating player in the draft, while Prince Amukamara could be the best CB to come out as well. If it was all about talent, I might agree, but it takes more than talent to succeed at the next level as you pointed out about the DL.

As for the DB versus front seven argument, it is a very difficult and complex problem to grasp. I tried to explain this earlier. Defensive schemes are predicated on stopping the run first, then playing coverage behind it. You have to have a front seven who can stop the run first and then rush the passer. Once you have that, you can cover in the passing game much more effectively. If teams commit to running the ball with heavy sets, you can play eight in the box to stop them. However, if the trend is to pass first out of 11 personnel (One RB, and One TE) and your front seven can not stop the run in the nickle you are going to get screwed. This has happened multiple times this year to teams. Notice that CB play has not even come into question yet? The old maxim is it all starts up front is because this is HOW schemes are devised.

The Elite DB will take an average Front seven and make the pass defense better, but may not make the overall defense better at all. This is what happens in OAK with Asomugha. The Elite DL can make the secondary better immediately if teams need to keep receivers in to help block that player. That allows the secondary more coverage options as one less player is out in the pattern to free up space for throwing windows and matchup problems. Sometimes, a Coverage sack comes from being able to cover 4 Receivers with 7 instead of five Receivers with six when you have to blitz to get pressure!

Lastly, the draft is a crapshoot. Peterson could really be the Superman you think he can be, or he could be the next Cromartie, just another Fast and tall DB. Any of the DL could fail too, but this is the best group I have seen mentally in a long time until you get to the third tier guys like Ballard, Bailey, Nevis, and Casey. I get your point on Peterson, I think he will be the highest graded CB to come out since Shawn Springs in '96. I just do not believe he will revolutionize passing defenses the way you believe he can. If he went to PIT, BAL, GB or some other team with an Elite front seven maybe. However, I will maintain the fact I want an Elite Level DL and a second tier DL before i want to go DB with DEN. They need so much help up front and finally have a chance to secure some much needed playmakers there before they need to devote those Resources at CB.

Heck, we do not even know if they plan to play a heavy zone 4-3 like CAR and NO did. Having Peterson and playing a heavy zone defense behind it would be a colossal waste of resources. Let's table this until we find out what scheme DEN is going to run and this argument actually makes sense having.
It's not that I don't understand your points, I just don't agree with you.

TonyR
01-31-2011, 06:43 PM
Neither are Randy Moss, Steve Smith or Michael Crabtree at this point in their careers. Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe and Greg Jenings should surely be in that list in their place. Just another thing to make me wonder about that guy's ability to scout talent.

DeSean Jackson is also very questionable as a legit #1. He's a great talent and always a threat but he's just not a guy you can count on for big catches over the middle or in the red zone. He's been completely taken out of some big games. The Eagles have a huge dilemma with him when it's time for him to get paid.

Dedhed
02-01-2011, 09:20 AM
Its not a silly argument. We've had the best corner in the game and without fixing our defensive line he hasn't helped us win.

It is a silly argument. You can make the exact same argument for Mario Willliams. He's a phenomenal DE, and the Texans have a terrible defense.

Saying that a CB has no value because a great CB plays on a terrible defense is crazy. You can find a great player at every position on the field who plays for a poor unit, and use that as a basis to devalue the position.

What you're not considering is how bad the Broncos defense would be without Champ on it for the last 5 years.

Dedhed
02-01-2011, 09:32 AM
I almost get this. Almost. The one problem I have is you have already crowned Peterson as a superman who will revolutionize pass defense. I hope he will have that type of effect on the game if DEN drafts him, but its a really shaky proposition. One I would have a hard time supporting, especially after he got worked pretty well in his bowl game! You are assuming Peterson's Talents make him the one most dominating player in the draft, while Prince Amukamara could be the best CB to come out as well. If it was all about talent, I might agree, but it takes more than talent to succeed at the next level as you pointed out about the DL.

As for the DB versus front seven argument, it is a very difficult and complex problem to grasp. I tried to explain this earlier. Defensive schemes are predicated on stopping the run first, then playing coverage behind it. You have to have a front seven who can stop the run first and then rush the passer. Once you have that, you can cover in the passing game much more effectively. If teams commit to running the ball with heavy sets, you can play eight in the box to stop them. However, if the trend is to pass first out of 11 personnel (One RB, and One TE) and your front seven can not stop the run in the nickle you are going to get screwed. This has happened multiple times this year to teams. Notice that CB play has not even come into question yet? The old maxim is it all starts up front is because this is HOW schemes are devised.

The Elite DB will take an average Front seven and make the pass defense better, but may not make the overall defense better at all. This is what happens in OAK with Asomugha. The Elite DL can make the secondary better immediately if teams need to keep receivers in to help block that player. That allows the secondary more coverage options as one less player is out in the pattern to free up space for throwing windows and matchup problems. Sometimes, a Coverage sack comes from being able to cover 4 Receivers with 7 instead of five Receivers with six when you have to blitz to get pressure!

Lastly, the draft is a crapshoot. Peterson could really be the Superman you think he can be, or he could be the next Cromartie, just another Fast and tall DB. Any of the DL could fail too, but this is the best group I have seen mentally in a long time until you get to the third tier guys like Ballard, Bailey, Nevis, and Casey. I get your point on Peterson, I think he will be the highest graded CB to come out since Shawn Springs in '96. I just do not believe he will revolutionize passing defenses the way you believe he can. If he went to PIT, BAL, GB or some other team with an Elite front seven maybe. However, I will maintain the fact I want an Elite Level DL and a second tier DL before i want to go DB with DEN. They need so much help up front and finally have a chance to secure some much needed playmakers there before they need to devote those Resources at CB.

Heck, we do not even know if they plan to play a heavy zone 4-3 like CAR and NO did. Having Peterson and playing a heavy zone defense behind it would be a colossal waste of resources. Let's table this until we find out what scheme DEN is going to run and this argument actually makes sense having.
You seem to be applying your "draft crapshoot" logic only to Peterson, when history is shown that the Defensive linemen taken high in the draft have a far higher attrition rate than DBs taken high in the first round.

I completely disagree with your premise that today's NFL has eliminated the value of a shutdown corner. I think the back end is equally as important in today's pass heavy league. I think there are at least as many "coverage sacks" in this league as there are where a DL cleanly beats his man.

Our DL actually did a pretty good job of stacking the point against the run, but our LBs were horrendous at filling their gaps, and the safeties were terrible in pursuit.

Peterson is a better prospect than any of the DL available. DL have a much greater attrition rate high in the draft. There certainly isn't a LB worth the #2 overall selection. The CB class is extremely weak and the DL class is extremely deep.

All of those factors make Peterson a far more valuable pick at #2.

enjolras
02-01-2011, 01:36 PM
While I think you can find a lot of examples of secondaries that make the front 7 better, you'll find that they almost ALWAYS have really strong play at safety. It's not enough for a corner to take away one receiver, a great safety can take away the middle of the field.

I'd be intrigued if they could talk Petersen into playing safety. He has the instincts and the size to do it.

Mediator12
02-01-2011, 01:39 PM
It's not that I don't understand your points, I just don't agree with you.

Ok, then I agree to disagree with you. However, you are still very wrong ;D

Mediator12
02-01-2011, 01:50 PM
You seem to be applying your "draft crapshoot" logic only to Peterson, when history is shown that the Defensive linemen taken high in the draft have a far higher attrition rate than DBs taken high in the first round.

I completely disagree with your premise that today's NFL has eliminated the value of a shutdown corner. I think the back end is equally as important in today's pass heavy league. I think there are at least as many "coverage sacks" in this league as there are where a DL cleanly beats his man.

Our DL actually did a pretty good job of stacking the point against the run, but our LBs were horrendous at filling their gaps, and the safeties were terrible in pursuit.

Peterson is a better prospect than any of the DL available. DL have a much greater attrition rate high in the draft. There certainly isn't a LB worth the #2 overall selection. The CB class is extremely weak and the DL class is extremely deep.

All of those factors make Peterson a far more valuable pick at #2.

No, I am applying your own logic about draft busts and saying its a 2 way street. There have been just as high a percentage of CB draft picks that never became elite players as there have been DL. The difference is really on the Floor of the players, not the ceiling. The CB's do not necessarily bust, but they are not worth the high selection either.

As for you and Footsteps disagreeing with the value of a shutdown CB, so be it. You can disagree with me until you are both blue in the face. The reality is that matchups have changed in the NFL. The "Shutdown CB" no longer is as effective as the game has changed. Coverage is more about having quality depth in the secondary, than having one good CB. Having 3 good CB's is much more preferable than having one All pro CB and a few average DB's.

willyallthewei
02-01-2011, 02:24 PM
I don't know how corners can be valued so darn high. Certainly some teams rely on them heavily, but cover 2 teams tend to minimize dependency on that position...

Arkie
02-01-2011, 09:21 PM
Here are all the 1st round DL and DBs taken the last ten years sorted by weighted career approximate value (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518). It kinda shows how they stack up. The numbers are when they were picked.

2010

Ndamukong Suh DT #2
Eric Berry DB #5
Devin McCourty DB #27
Gerald McCoy DT #3
Tyson Alualu DT #10
Earl Thomas DB #14
Kareem Jackson DB #20
Joe Haden DB #7
Kyle Wilson DB #29
Jason Pierre-Paul DE #15
Dan Williams DT #26
Patrick Robinson DB #32
Derrick Morgan DE #16
Jared Odrick DT #28

2009

Malcolm Jenkins DB #14
B.J. Raji DT #9
Vontae Davis DB #25
Tyson Jackson DE #3
Evander Hood DT #32
Robert Ayers DE #18
Aaron Maybin DE #11
Peria Jerry DT #24

2008

Glenn Dorsey DT #5
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie DB #16
Sedrick Ellis DT #7
Chris Long DE #2
Aqib Talib DB #20
Mike Jenkins DB #25
Derrick Harvey DE #8
Lawrence Jackson DE #28
Leodis McKelvin DB #11
Antoine Cason DB #27
Kenny Phillips DB #31
Kentwan Balmer DT #29
Vernon Gholston DE #6

2007

Darrelle Revis DB #14
Leon Hall DB #18
Michael Griffin DB #19
LaRon Landry DB #6
Brandon Meriweather DB #24
Anthony Spencer DE #26
Jamaal Anderson DE #8
Amobi Okoye DT #10
Reggie Nelson DB #21
Gaines Adams DE #4
Adam Carriker DE #13
Aaron Ross DB #20
Justin Harrell DT #16
Jarvis Moss DE #17

2006

Haloti Ngata DT #12
Mario Williams DE #1
Tamba Hali DE #20
Antonio Cromartie DB #19
Michael Huff DB #7
Brodrick Bunkley DT #14
Donte Whitner DB #8
Johnathan Joseph DB #24
Mathias Kiwanuka DE #32
Kelly Jennings DB #31
Tye Hill DB #15
Jason Allen DB #16
John McCargo DT #26

2005

Mike Patterson DT #31
Luis Castillo DE-DT #28
Antrel Rolle DB #8
Marcus Spears DE #20
Carlos Rogers DB #9
Fabian Washington DB #23
Pacman Jones DB #6
Travis Johnson DT #16
Marlin Jackson DB #29
Erasmus James DE #18

2004

Vince Wilfork NT-DT #21
Tommie Harris DT #14
DeAngelo Hall DB #8
Will Smith DE #18
Chris Gamble DB #28
Sean Taylor DB #5
Dunta Robinson DB #10
Jason Babin LB-DE #27
Kenechi Udeze DE #20
Ahmad Carroll DB #25
Marcus Tubbs DT #23

2003

Kevin Williams DT-DE #9
Troy Polamalu DB #16
Terrell Suggs LB-DE #10
Nnamdi Asomugha DB #31
Terence Newman DB #5
Marcus Trufant DB #11
Ty Warren DE-DT #13
Calvin Pace DE #18
Tyler Brayton DE #32
Dewayne Robertson DT #4
Jimmy Kennedy DT #12
Sammy Davis DB #30
William Joseph DT #25
Johnathan Sullivan DT #6
Michael Haynes DE #14
Andre Woolfolk DB #28
Jerome McDougle DE #15

2002

Julius Peppers DE #2
Ed Reed DB #24
Dwight Freeney DE #11
John Henderson DT #9
Roy Williams DB #8
Albert Haynesworth DT #15
Charles Grant DE #25
Bryan Thomas DE #22
Quentin Jammer DB #5
Lito Sheppard DB #26
Phillip Buchanon DB #17
Ryan Sims DT #6
Mike Rumph DB #27
Wendell Bryant DT #12

2001

Richard Seymour DE-DT #6
Marcus Stroud DT #13
Casey Hampton DT #19
Justin Smith DE #4
Andre Carter DE-LB #7
Nate Clements DB #21
Gerard Warren DT #3
Ryan Pickett DT #29
Will Allen DB #22
Damione Lewis DT #12
Adam Archuleta DB #20
Derrick Gibson DB #28
Jamar Fletcher DB #26
Willie Middlebrooks DB #24
Jamal Reynolds DE #10

Dedhed
02-02-2011, 10:28 AM
No, I am applying your own logic about draft busts and saying its a 2 way street. There have been just as high a percentage of CB draft picks that never became elite players as there have been DL. The difference is really on the Floor of the players, not the ceiling. The CB's do not necessarily bust, but they are not worth the high selection either.If the #2 pick busts, it will be awful for this franchise. Peterson's ceiling is as high as anyone's, and his bust potential is limited.

You can disagree with me until you are both blue in the face. The reality is that matchups have changed in the NFL.Matchups in the NFL change every year. That doesn't change Peterson's value. That's still nothing more than your opinion. With the way they throw the ball these days a CB with Peterson's size with the ability to cover can be invaluable.

The "Shutdown CB" no longer is as effective as the game has changed. Coverage is more about having quality depth in the secondary, than having one good CB. Having 3 good CB's is much more preferable than having one All pro CB and a few average DB's.I think making Goodman a #3 CB by drafting Peterson and re-signing Champ does wonders for the quality of the depth in the secondary.

CEH
02-05-2011, 05:11 PM
Start building your draft board for the John Fox 4-3

Xanders interview 8 minutes in talks about the New England draft board and customizing it for the John Fox 4-3

http://www.1043thefan.com/Channels/thedrive/Story.aspx?ID=1358113