View Full Version : Football Outsiders: Orton compares to J. George, J. Plummer and B. Hebert. Cutler to ???

El Minion

12-01-2010, 03:17 PM

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS SIMILARITY SCORES:

Kyle Orton (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16634/kyle-orton)=Jeff George year 1, Jake Plummer year 2, and Bobby Hebert year 3

Jay Cutler (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15684/jay-cutler)=Jim Kelly year 1, Tom Brady year 2, and Joe Montana year 3

Inkana7

12-01-2010, 03:18 PM

hahahaha

TheElusiveKyleOrton

12-01-2010, 03:21 PM

I'm so glad this is settled.

frerottenextelway

12-01-2010, 03:21 PM

<------ needs popcorn

lostknight

12-01-2010, 03:59 PM

For Cutler:

<table><thead><tr><th colspan="4">Most Similar Players for Three-Year Span</th></tr><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Player</th><th>Year</th><th>Sim</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="even"><td>1</td><td>Joe Montana (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/21457/joe-montana)</td><td>1981-1983</td><td>725</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>2</td><td>Tom Brady (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15472/tom-brady)</td><td>2001-2003</td><td>707</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>3</td><td>Peyton Manning (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16426/peyton-manning)</td><td>1999-2001</td><td>686</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>4</td><td>Brett Favre (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15811/brett-favre)</td><td>1994-1996</td><td>671</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>5</td><td>Tom Brady (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15472/tom-brady)</td><td>2004-2006</td><td>668</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>6</td><td>Ken O'Brien (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/22881/ken-obrien)</td><td>1985-1987</td><td>659</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>7</td><td>Brett Favre (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15811/brett-favre)</td><td>1992-1994</td><td>638</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>8</td><td>Jim Zorn</td><td>1978-1980</td><td>634</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>9</td><td>Tommy Kramer</td><td>1980-1982</td><td>632</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>10</td><td>Jim Kelly (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/20927/jim-kelly)</td><td>1986-1988</td><td>626</td></tr></tbody></table>

For Orton

<table><thead><tr><th colspan="4">Most Similar Players for Three-Year Span</th></tr><tr><th>Rank</th><th>Player</th><th>Year</th><th>Sim</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="even"><td>1</td><td>Bobby Hebert (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/23283/bobby-hebert)</td><td>1986-1988</td><td>658</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>2</td><td>Philip Rivers (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16771/philip-rivers)</td><td>2005-2007</td><td>623</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>3</td><td>Elvis Grbac (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/19346/elvis-grbac)</td><td>1998-2000</td><td>603</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>4</td><td>Jason Campbell (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15550/jason-campbell)</td><td>2006-2008</td><td>602</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>5</td><td>Jim Everett (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/20601/jim-everett)</td><td>1986-1988</td><td>599</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>6</td><td>Gus Frerotte (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15871/gus-frerotte)</td><td>1994-1996</td><td>593</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>7</td><td>Richard Todd</td><td>1978-1980</td><td>529</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>8</td><td>Boomer Esiason (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/20599/boomer-esiason)</td><td>1984-1986</td><td>523</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>9</td><td>Jay Fiedler (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/23816/jay-fiedler)</td><td>1999-2001</td><td>523</td></tr><tr class="even"><td>10</td><td>Matt Hasselbeck (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16057/matt-hasselbeck)</td><td>2000-2002</td><td>522</td></tr></tbody></table>

Here is how it's calculated:

QUARTERBACKS

Subtract 15 points for each year difference in age between the two players

Subtract 10 points for each year difference in career experience between the two players (based on the year the player came out of college, not necessarily his first year in the NFL)

Subtract an additional 15 points for each year in difference in career experience as a starting quarterback between the two players, based on the first year where a quarterback started at least six games

Subtract 5 points times the difference in games played

Subtract 20 points times the difference in games started (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/similarity#)

Subtract 0.225 points for each difference of 1 pass attempt

Subtract 2.5 points for each difference of 10 passing yards

Subtract 1.6 points for each difference of 0.1% in completion percentage

Subtract 3 points times the difference in passing touchdowns

Subtract 2 points times the difference in interceptions

Subtract 2 points times the difference in sacks

Subtract 150 points times the difference in yards per pass attempt

Subtract 1 point for each difference of 4 rushing attempts

Subtract 1 point for each difference of 10 rushing yards

Subtract 1 point for each difference in rushing touchdowns

snowspot66

12-01-2010, 04:24 PM

And the point of this is?

Taco John

12-01-2010, 04:33 PM

That's actually pretty interesting stuff. How does Brady Quinn rate? Or Cassel?

Taco John

12-01-2010, 04:34 PM

And the point of this is?

SIMILARITY SCORES

I'm guessing that means that they're scoring similarities.

Br0nc0Buster

12-01-2010, 04:35 PM

does that computation account for amount of frowns or pouts?

how about the number of times one player calls his dad to turn in items to coaches?

Broncomutt

12-01-2010, 04:37 PM

Read the methodology. No mention of the Hochuli variable. :kiddingme

snowspot66

12-01-2010, 04:39 PM

SIMILARITY SCORES

I'm guessing that means that they're scoring similarities.

Yes but what is the usefulness of this comparison? It just seems like stats for the sake of stats.

DarkHorse30

12-01-2010, 04:40 PM

Yes but what is the usefulness of this comparison? It just seems like stats for the sake of stats.

welcome to football outsiders

Taco John

12-01-2010, 05:01 PM

welcome to football outsiders

Beat me to it...

Karenin

12-01-2010, 05:36 PM

That's actually pretty interesting stuff. How does Brady Quinn rate? Or Cassel?

Or Brian Griese? Or George Foster?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS SIMILARITY SCORES:

Kyle Orton (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16634/kyle-orton)=Jeff George year 1, Jake Plummer year 2, and Bobby Hebert year 3

Jay Cutler (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15684/jay-cutler)=Jim Kelly year 1, Tom Brady year 2, and Joe Montana year 3

is football outsiders a website run by Bus Cook, by any chance?

Rock Chalk

12-01-2010, 05:44 PM

I believe FOotball Outsiders is attempting to do in football what Pomeroy does for College Hoops and others do for Baseball and NBA.

The problem is, football is far more complex to use any statistical analysis that measures individuals or teams. Unlike basketball and baseball where every possession and every action on the field or court has a stat associated with it, football does not and the permutations of what can go right and can go wrong on any given play make it an impossible task.

I admire their effort, but any system that has Philly as the #1 rated team every single year is retarded.

HILife

12-01-2010, 06:33 PM

wtf?

EDIT: now that I saw the scores it makes sssooooooo much more sense.