The Emerging Republican Minority

[TonyR]

The Center for American Politics' Ruy Teixeira, one of the top political demographers in the country, has a new paper out in which he examines the two major party coalitions, with a focus on the current and future prospects of the Republican Party. For the GOP, says Teixeira, things look grim, in large part because the country is becoming less white and more educated. He provides specific data showing how college educated voters are growing, and non-college educated shrinking, as shares of the electorate; likewise for the growing non-white v. shrinking white populations.

"The Democratic Party will become even more dominated by the emerging constituencies that gave Barack Obama his historic 2008 victory, while the Republican Party will be forced to move toward the center to compete for these constituencies. As a result, modern conservatism is likely to lose its dominant place in the GOP," he writes, adding that "the Republican Party as currently constituted is in need of serious and substantial changes in approach."

...

The nature of the GOP's demographic-electoral problem is three-fold. First, the challenge of trying to evolve and adapt is itself limited by demographics because the GOP's older and whiter residual white minority coalition is simply less amenable to the sort of changes it would take to modernize the party. Second, so many of the figures within the party who might be able to lead a center-right revival have been beaten in recent cycles, with the old Ford/Dole/Rockefeller wing decimated by the 2006 and 2008 cycles. (Relatedly, it doesn't help when people like Frum are cast out from their intellectual circles.) Finally, it is simply not in the nature of conservatism to foment change or be out in front of demographic and social changes: Conservatism works best as a reaction to--not necessarily reactionary, but a reaction nonetheless--to oncoming, rapid changes.

See the whole thing here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/emerging-republican-minority.html

[TailgateNut]

The Center for American Politics' Ruy Teixeira, one of the top political demographers in the country, has a new paper out in which he examines the two major party coalitions, with a focus on the current and future prospects of the Republican Party. For the GOP, says Teixeira, things look grim, in large part because the country is becoming less white and more educated. He provides specific data showing how college educated voters are growing, and non-college educated shrinking, as shares of the electorate; likewise for the growing non-white v. shrinking white populations.

"The Democratic Party will become even more dominated by the emerging constituencies that gave Barack Obama his historic 2008 victory, while the Republican Party will be forced to move toward the center to compete for these constituencies. As a result, modern conservatism is likely to lose its dominant place in the GOP," he writes, adding that "the Republican Party as currently constituted is in need of serious and substantial changes in approach."

...

The nature of the GOP's demographic-electoral problem is three-fold. First, the challenge of trying to evolve and adapt is itself limited by demographics because the GOP's older and whiter residual white minority coalition is simply less amenable to the sort of changes it would take to modernize the party. Second, so many of the figures within the party who might be able to lead a center-right revival have been beaten in recent cycles, with the old Ford/Dole/Rockefeller wing decimated by the 2006 and 2008 cycles. (Relatedly, it doesn't help when people like Frum are cast out from their intellectual circles.) Finally, it is simply not in the nature of conservatism to foment change or be out in front of demographic and social changes: Conservatism works best as a reaction to--not necessarily reactionary, but a reaction nonetheless--to oncoming, rapid changes.

See the whole thing here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/emerging-republican-minority.html


These have always been tough issues for the core of the party.

Uneducated and un-willing to adapt!

[Rohirrim]

That would be good for America. Judging by the effects of the last Republican president, I doubt the country could withstand the effects of another one.

[Rohirrim]

The nature of the GOP's demographic-electoral problem is three-fold. First, the challenge of trying to evolve and adapt is itself limited by demographics because the GOP's older and whiter residual white minority coalition is simply less amenable to the sort of changes it would take to modernize the party. Second, so many of the figures within the party who might be able to lead a center-right revival have been beaten in recent cycles, with the old Ford/Dole/Rockefeller wing decimated by the 2006 and 2008 cycles. (Relatedly, it doesn't help when people like Frum are cast out from their intellectual circles.) Finally, it is simply not in the nature of conservatism to foment change or be out in front of demographic and social changes: Conservatism works best as a reaction to--not necessarily reactionary, but a reaction nonetheless--to oncoming, rapid changes.

It's going to be a whole lot of fun watching the Right go down in flames. Maybe we will finally be able to move this country toward the future it deserves.

[TonyR]

Particularly inside the Beltway, many Republicans seem highly confident that their party will score a 1994-style triumph in this November’s elections. Certainly, President Obama’s relative unpopularity, the continuing high jobless rate, and congressional Democrats’ leadership style has done some damage to the Democratic Party brand. Several currently Democratic seats—at least two in the Senate, perhaps 10 in the House—do seem like surefire Republican pickups. A lot can change in six months so, of course, large pickups are a possibility. But there’s little reason to count on a massive Republican rout come November. There are at least five reasons why any Republican who claims this is simply overconfident: ...

Read the rest here: http://www.frumforum.com/why-the-dems-may-be-celebrating-in-nov

[RMT]

That would be good for America. Judging by the effects of the last Republican president, I doubt the country could withstand the effects of another one.

what would be better is if BOTH parties were decimated and overtaken by a 3rd party that actually REPRESENTS THE PEOPLE. neither party does that.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

That would be good for America. Judging by the effects of the last Republican president, I doubt the country could withstand the effects of another one.

This.

[Popcorn Sutton]

what would be better is if BOTH parties were decimated and overtaken by a 3rd party that actually REPRESENTS THE PEOPLE. neither party does that.

Yup.