PDA

View Full Version : Vince Young vs. Tim Tebow


bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 09:32 AM
Just curious why so many people are jumping on Denver about Tebow when all the same criticism could be made of Vince Young. No one complained (at least not this loudly) when he was taken with the #3 pick in the draft. Many figured Houston should take him #1 overall since he was a hometown kid.

Notable comparisons:
1) Poor throwing motion
2) Played on a stacked team in college (the padded stats argument)
3) Low scores on Wonderlic
4) Got by on athletic ability in college
5) A "project" in the pros

They had similar stats in college with one notable exception - Tebow took better care of the ball. Tebow averaged about 5 INTs per season as compared to VYs 10.5 INTs per year. They had similar QB ratings, similar YPA, similar completion percentages. Tebow also managed to throw an average of 27 TDs per season compared to VYs 18.

Although we didn't know it until he made it to the pros, it seems fair at this point to assume Tebow has much more mental toughness than VY as well.

So I am just wondering again, why is Tebow at #25 such a polarizing pick?

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 09:34 AM
I think I know why. I think that because, like his predecessor, McDaniels has become a lightning rod of a personality. People are waiting in the wings to criticize his every move.

Ask yourself this: If New England, Buffalo, or J'Ville makes this pick, is it half the the story?

Popps
04-26-2010, 09:37 AM
I think I know why. I think that because, like his predecessor, McDaniels has become a lightning rod of a personality. People are waiting in the wings to criticize his every move.

Ask yourself this: If New England, Buffalo, or J'Ville makes this pick, is it half the the story?

Better yet, what if the Jets made this pick?

Can you ****ing imagine?

Jesterhole
04-26-2010, 09:40 AM
They didn't both have low scores on the Wonderlic. Vince Young got something like a 6. Tebow got a 22.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 09:41 AM
They didn't both have low scores on the Wonderlic. Vince Young got something like a 6. Tebow got a 22.

Well, I'm just saying there was a story circulated at some point that he had a low score for a QB. Yes VYs was much worse, but none the less, intelligence has been used as a criticism for both.

Shoemaker
04-26-2010, 09:41 AM
I think I know why. I think that because, like his predecessor, McDaniels has become a lightning rod of a personality. People are waiting in the wings to criticize his every move.

Ask yourself this: If New England, Buffalo, or J'Ville makes this pick, is it half the the story?

Not sure about Buffalo or Jacksonville, but I'm almost positive that if NE trades back into the first and gets Tebow, the move would be praised instead of ridiculed.

People would be saying that Belichick "saw something" in Tebow, or is "grooming him for the future," or is going to use him as a "weapon"; basically, all of the things we're going to do with him, but cast in a positive light.

The thing is, I've heard a lot of people say getting Tebow was a "luxury pick," and since we collapsed down the stretched and finished 2-8 last year, we have too many holes to afford spending a first round pick on a "project quarterback."

NE, on the other hand, is viewed as a perennial contender, and would be given much more leeway for spending an early pick on a developmental QB, especially one as intriguing as Tebow.

I realize I've kind of gone off topic and haven't addressed the original point of this thread. As for why Young was lauded as a Top 10 pick, but Tebow derided as a 2nd-round talent, I have no idea.

All of the stats indicate that Tebow did everything Young did, and did it better (except run fast). So you're right that the contrast in views of them doesn't make sense.

Could Young's lack of success so far in the NFL be the very reason that people are more wary of the Tebow pick? Young certainly didn't "revolutionize" the QB position coming out, so could that have convinced people that his and Tebow's brand of QBing won't work in the NFL?

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 09:45 AM
The thing is, I've heard a lot of people say getting Tebow was a "luxury pick," and since we collapsed down the stretched and finished 2-8 last year, we have too many holes to afford spending a first round pick on a "project quarterback."

NE, on the other hand, is viewed as a perennial contender, and would be given much more leeway for spending an early pick on a developmental QB, especially one as intriguing as Tebow.

This is a fair point, but I think it also shows how screwy perspectives are. None other than Bill Simmons, the biggest NE buff of all time, just wrote a column last season blasting New England for not drafting better in the past 5 years.

So that's the point. A lot of this criticism is on superficial, qualitative factors that don't have jack **** to do with wins and losses! Does the fact that Ron Jaworski likes or dislikes a guys throwing motion have anything to do with his NFL success? I would say they are loosely correlated at best.

TheReverend
04-26-2010, 09:57 AM
Please.

Never AGAIN compare Tebow with Young... unless it's Steve Young.

Shoemaker
04-26-2010, 10:09 AM
Please.

Never AGAIN compare Tebow with Young... unless it's Steve Young.

Isn't that kind of the point of the thread?

I think bloodsunday's "comparison" of Tebow and Young is as incredulous as yours. The statistics indicate pretty soundly that Tebow did everything Young did in college, but did it better.

Yet, Young was regarded as a consensus Top 10 pick coming out of college, whereas most analysts say Tebow shouldn't have gone until the second round.

So the OP was asking why that is. What caused the logical dissonance between "Vince Young, Number 1 Draft Pick" and "Tim Tebow can't make it in the NFL?"

lostknight
04-26-2010, 10:15 AM
Just curious why so many people are jumping on Denver about Tebow when all the same criticism could be made of Vince Young. No one complained (at least not this loudly) when he was taken with the #3 pick in the draft. Many figured Houston should take him #1 overall since he was a hometown kid.

Notable comparisons:
1) Poor throwing motion
2) Played on a stacked team in college (the padded stats argument)
3) Low scores on Wonderlic
4) Got by on athletic ability in college
5) A "project" in the pros

They had similar stats in college with one notable exception - Tebow took better care of the ball. Tebow averaged about 5 INTs per season as compared to VYs 10.5 INTs per year. They had similar QB ratings, similar YPA, similar completion percentages. Tebow also managed to throw an average of 27 TDs per season compared to VYs 18.

Although we didn't know it until he made it to the pros, it seems fair at this point to assume Tebow has much more mental toughness than VY as well.

So I am just wondering again, why is Tebow at #25 such a polarizing pick?

Until you look at the following. Filter out the rushing touch downs for both, and just look at interceptions per passing attempt. Tebow - 66 attempts per interception, Young 25 attempts per interception.

TD/INT, and Passing attemtps/INT are highly predictive of NFL success when there are a lot of attempts. For example:
Vince Young - 25 attempts per interception.
Derek Anderson - 26 attempts per interceptoin.
Tim Couch - 33 attempts per interception.
Jay Cutler - 35 attempts per interception.
Jamarcus Russel - 37 attempts per interception.
Drew Brees - 38 attempts per interception(*).
Brady Quinn - 40 attempts per interception.
Peyton Manning - 41 attempts per interception.
Tom Brady - 42 attempts per interception.
Phillip Rivers - 50 attempts per interception.
Kyle Orton - 52 attempts per interception.
Tim Tebow - 66 attempts per interception.

There are of course outliers to these numbers (usually people who have less then 800 attempts. Drew Brees is a big example of that).It's easy to see why McDaniels loves Tebow, take a look at number 2 in the league.

Of course the second argument is efficiency, which is both a function of arm strength (throw for more yards), and percentage of completions. Tebow blows away Orton's college experience there.

Please don't compare Young's wonderlic with Tebows. It's hard enough to fight all of the current misinformation, then to even compare for a second a above NFL average, but slightly below QB average for Tebow with a janitor average score for Young. Likewise, Young's college GPA was 2.93, while Tebow was a solid 3.5.

azbroncfan
04-26-2010, 10:17 AM
[QUOTE=bloodsunday;2824593]

Notable comparisons:
1) Poor throwing motion
2) Played on a stacked team in college (the padded stats argument)
3) Low scores on Wonderlic
4) Got by on athletic ability in college
5) A "project" in the pros
QUOTE]

Tebow's throwing motion isn't poor just long and it can be shortened. Tim's footwork looks pretty good to me especially for a spread option system that he ran. As far as the wonderlic I don't know what Tebow scored but VY's was so low that he could barely get his name on the test and scored low enough it was considered illiterate. Could you compare their work ethic and leadership abilities for us. Not to mention the stability of the individual.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 10:17 AM
Please.

Never AGAIN compare Tebow with Young... unless it's Steve Young.

Or Young Frankenstein, which was a terrific movie.

TheReverend
04-26-2010, 10:19 AM
Isn't that kind of the point of the thread?

I think bloodsunday's "comparison" of Tebow and Young is as incredulous as yours. The statistics indicate pretty soundly that Tebow did everything Young did in college, but did it better.

Yet, Young was regarded as a consensus Top 10 pick coming out of college, whereas most analysts say Tebow shouldn't have gone until the second round.

So the OP was asking why that is. What caused the logical dissonance between "Vince Young, Number 1 Draft Pick" and "Tim Tebow can't make it in the NFL?"

I understood the thread, thank you. My point is that our new QB doesn't need any validation by comparing him with garbage players, favorable or not.

mizzoutigers
04-26-2010, 10:21 AM
vince young is a moron with a pea sized brain - that is why he sucks. tebow will be fine

Drek
04-26-2010, 10:22 AM
Tebow is also a much better athlete than Vince Young.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:22 AM
You guys are all helping make my point.

For those that are miffed, I am not suggesting Tebow and Young will have similar NFL careers or that their intelligence is equal. I am just comparing their relative weaknesses (as portrayed by the collective football minds) coming out of college and how they got such different draft "group think grades"?

Where are the haters of this pick? I haven't seen one person yet try to take apart this argument.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 10:24 AM
You guys are all helping make my point.

For those that are miffed, I am not suggesting Tebow and Young will have similar NFL careers or that their intelligence is equal. I am just comparing their relative weaknesses (as portrayed by the collective football minds) coming out of college and how they got such different draft "group think grades"?

Where are the haters of this pick? I haven't seen one person yet try to take apart this argument.

I'm one of the pick haters, and I would have equally hated picking Vince Young. Happy?

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:24 AM
I understood the thread, thank you. My point is that our new QB doesn't need any validation by comparing him with garbage players, favorable or not.

I'm not validating Tebow. I'm trashing on the draft process and the talking heads (see Pete Prisco). It's just a question of why people want to hate on Josh McDaniels really.

It's Tebow's responsibility to validate this pick, as it is with every draft choice.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:25 AM
I'm one of the pick haters, and I would have equally hated picking Vince Young. Happy?

Wow, that was weak.

Killericon
04-26-2010, 10:26 AM
What caused the logical dissonance between "Vince Young, Number 1 Draft Pick" and "Tim Tebow can't make it in the NFL?"


Probably because people have seen Young struggle in the NFL.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:28 AM
Probably because people have seen Young struggle in the NFL.

That's a completely different conversation. His "struggles" are relative. He is a starting NFL QB. He has made more playoff appearances than both Cutler and Leinhart combined (which isn't hard).

Rohirrim
04-26-2010, 10:28 AM
Classifying all those who didn't like this move as "haters" is juvenile.

Kid A
04-26-2010, 10:29 AM
I almost started a similar thread. I was really down on Vince Young when he was drafted. Had every flaw attributed to Tebow, except a significantly worse college passer, plus immaturity/mental issues that have arisen. Only advantage I'd give Vince (looking at both straight out of college) is speed.

So, yeah, it really makes no sense. Sure Vince proved me wrong that first year (rookie of the year I believe), but I don't think anyone is too wild about his career outlook at this point. Sure I wasn't too keen on Tebow being a 1st round pick either, but I have yet to see anything that convinces me Young was clearly a better pro prospect out of college than Tebow.

The fact that Young showed flashes of being able to be a good NFL QB (despite his poor passing/intelligence/maturity) gives me some optimism about Tebow, who is stronger than him in all those categories while sharing the same "college QB" mold.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:30 AM
Classifying all those who didn't like this move as "haters" is juvenile.

Actually, I said "haters of this pick". Juvenile is forgetting to read the entire sentence before getting offended.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 10:31 AM
That's a completely different conversation. His "struggles" are relative. He is a starting NFL QB. He has made more playoff appearances than both Cutler and Leinhart combined (which isn't hard).

His struggles are relative to what? He sucks.

Why does that mean I have to think he's a good QB or worthy of a first round grade? Fat Boy Russel has also been a starting QB at points in his career, are you hoping that Tebow can live up to that status? I don't really understand why you are trying to boost Tebow by comparing him to a crappy QB.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 10:33 AM
but I don't think anyone is too wild about his career outlook at this point.

That's debatable. He is going to be Tennessee's starter this year. Perhaps the real issue is with expectations. Not every 1st round QB is going to the HoF. It just won't happen.

I'd say the jury is still out on VY. To date, in the categories that count, he has outperformed both Cutler and Leinhart. So, his career outlook is an incomplete, IMO.

But again, that's kind of a different conversation. I am just really curious about why the two were viewed so differently on draft day.

Killericon
04-26-2010, 10:37 AM
That's a completely different conversation. His "struggles" are relative. He is a starting NFL QB. He has made more playoff appearances than both Cutler and Leinhart combined (which isn't hard).


Oh, sure, but Young was taken very high with the expectation, I think draft analysts thought that he'd come in and blow the doors off the place. That much certainly hasn't happened(which is what I meant by 'struggles'). Has he been bad? I don't think so, but he hasn't lived up to the hype, so people are probably seeing that and being more hesitant with their praise for a similar-ish type player.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 10:40 AM
BF7 just called me and would like to weigh in on this debate. He says it's because the media is reverse racist.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 11:00 AM
His struggles are relative to what? He sucks.

Why does that mean I have to think he's a good QB or worthy of a first round grade? Fat Boy Russel has also been a starting QB at points in his career, are you hoping that Tebow can live up to that status? I don't really understand why you are trying to boost Tebow by comparing him to a crappy QB.

Again, he's a starting NFL QB and he has a +500 record as a starter. He's also been to the playoffs.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 11:11 AM
Again, he's a starting NFL QB and he has a +500 record as a starter. He's also been to the playoffs.

So does Kyle Orton. What's your point?

BroncoInferno
04-26-2010, 11:17 AM
His struggles are relative to what? He sucks.

Why does that mean I have to think he's a good QB or worthy of a first round grade? Fat Boy Russel has also been a starting QB at points in his career, are you hoping that Tebow can live up to that status? I don't really understand why you are trying to boost Tebow by comparing him to a crappy QB.

I think his point has to do with the draft process. In other words, why did the majority of scouts grade Young as a top 10 pick but Tebow as at best a 2nd rounder? It's a valid question. Young was much less accomplished as a passer in college and his mechanics were worse as well. The only area where he was superior was raw speed and probably a stronger arm. The point isn't that Young is a great player or anything; the point is...why were scouts in love with Young but not Tebow?

I don't think he is saying it's wrong to question the pick; I question it myself. The point is wondering why scouts rated a guy like Young so highly but not Tebow, when Tebow was clearly a more accomplished overall player in college and has similar assets and question marks (mechanics, reading a defense, etc).

bowtown
04-26-2010, 11:30 AM
I think his point has to do with the draft process. In other words, why did the majority of scouts grade Young as a top 10 pick but Tebow as at best a 2nd rounder? It's a valid question. Young was much less accomplished as a passer in college and his mechanics were worse as well. The only area where he was superior was raw speed and probably a stronger arm. The point isn't that Young is a great player or anything; the point is...why were scouts in love with Young but not Tebow?

I don't think he is saying it's wrong to question the pick; I question it myself. The point is wondering why scouts rated a guy like Young so highly but not Tebow, when Tebow was clearly a more accomplished overall player in college and has similar question marks (mechanics, reading a defense, etc).

And I think it's been answered above pretty well. When Young came out, everyone was still in love with Michael Vick and people felt that electric guys in that mold were the future of the NFL. They are fun to watch and it's easy to fall in love with excitement they bring. Well, since that time Vick has gone to prison and there really hasn't been much success by any QB coming out with those skills, including Vince Young. So there was a shift back to the ideal of classic pocket passing QBs, as it always does. So Vince Young's lack of success in his career so far has a direct effect on why a guy with Tebow's skills are looked at as less desirable and graded down. It also is one of the biggest reasons I have a lot of doubts about what kind of success he's going to have. There have just been very few QBs to come out of college with his set of skills and set of problems that go on and achieve more than mild success.

Maybe Josh and Tebow can chage all that. I just find it a little bit amusing how many McDaniles bashers now seemed convinced that he is a big enough genius to completely change what has never successfully been changed in the NFL before... or maybe they are just so in love with Tebow that they think he will be the one to do it and McDaniels is just along for the ride.

I'm not saying I don't think Tebow won't be a fun guy to watch in Wild Horses, or be successfull on certain types of plays. But history hasn't given me any reason to think that he's going to be anything more than that. I hope I'm wrong.

listopencil
04-26-2010, 11:34 AM
They didn't both have low scores on the Wonderlic. Vince Young got something like a 6. Tebow got a 22.

This.

There is no comparison. Young is a low grade moron. He might even dip past the line into mildly retarded.

Popps
04-26-2010, 12:38 PM
The physical comparison is probably fair, though Tebow was a more productive passer in college. Young threw considerably less yards and had a 2:1 TD/INT ratio... much worse than Tebow's.

Again, the thing is like is that Tebow will step right into a situation where a young offensive whiz-kid will be making it his business to turn him into a starter. Look at what Shanahan did with Plummer.... what McDaniels did with Orton.

Imagine what Shanahan could have done with Tebow. Same for McDaniels. I think they both have a knack for getting the very most out of a QB.

BroncoInferno
04-26-2010, 12:50 PM
And I think it's been answered above pretty well. When Young came out, everyone was still in love with Michael Vick and people felt that electric guys in that mold were the future of the NFL. They are fun to watch and it's easy to fall in love with excitement they bring. Well, since that time Vick has gone to prison and there really hasn't been much success by any QB coming out with those skills, including Vince Young. So there was a shift back to the ideal of classic pocket passing QBs, as it always does. So Vince Young's lack of success in his career so far has a direct effect on why a guy with Tebow's skills are looked at as less desirable and graded down. It also is one of the biggest reasons I have a lot of doubts about what kind of success he's going to have. There have just been very few QBs to come out of college with his set of skills and set of problems that go on and achieve more than mild success.

Maybe Josh and Tebow can chage all that. I just find it a little bit amusing how many McDaniles bashers now seemed convinced that he is a big enough genius to completely change what has never successfully been changed in the NFL before... or maybe they are just so in love with Tebow that they think he will be the one to do it and McDaniels is just along for the ride.

I'm not saying I don't think Tebow won't be a fun guy to watch in Wild Horses, or be successfull on certain types of plays. But history hasn't given me any reason to think that he's going to be anything more than that. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't totally disagree with your analysis, but I think it is problematic in a few ways. For one, neither Micheal Vick nor Vince Young were unmitigated failures as NFL QBs. Vince Young seemed headed in that direction, but he seemed much improved last season, and there's no denying that he was the biggest difference between the Titans horrid 0-6 start and their 8-2 finish. That said, neither were/are elite NFL passers, and that ultimately holds their teams back.

But I don't necessarily think it is accurate to compare Tebow as a passer to Vick and Young. For one, he was much more productive and consistent as a passer than those guys coming out of college. For another, it seems to me all the elite passing QBs have three traits in common: 1) a high football IQ 2) a great attention to detail and 3) and almost maniacal work ethic. Manning, Brees, Brady...they'll all have those qualitites. Vick and Young were/are at best questionable in those three areas. Tim Tebow possesses all three, which is why I give him a better chance of developing into a top NFL passer. We'll see.

Pontius Pirate
04-26-2010, 12:54 PM
You guys who all are stoked for Tebow must be right. All those high paid NFL scouts must be wrong. Seriously, Tebow will be so awesome. I can't wait.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 12:55 PM
So does Kyle Orton. What's your point?

The point is that you cannot call VY a "failure". You can call him a work in progress. I suppose since he was a top 3 pick you can call him a disappointment.

But the guys has done enough to at least be in the serviceable category. IMO.

Orton is the same thing. Orton just didn't come with quite as high of expectations.

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 12:56 PM
You guys who all are stoked for Tebow must be right. All those high paid NFL scouts must be wrong. Seriously, Tebow will be so awesome. I can't wait.

Great job taking a valid point and completely screwing it up with a lame ass response.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 12:57 PM
I don't totally disagree with your analysis, but I think it is problematic in a few ways. For one, neither Micheal Vick nor Vince Young were unmitigated failures as NFL QBs. Vince Young seemed headed in that direction, but he seemed much improved last season, and there's no denying that he was the biggest difference between the Titans horrid 0-6 start and their 8-2 finish. That said, neither were/are elite NFL passers, and that ultimately holds their teams back.

But I don't necessarily think it is accurate to compare Tebow as a passer to Vick and Young. For one, he was much more productive and consistent as a passer than those guys coming out of college. For another, it seems to me all the elite passing QBs have three traits in common: 1) a high football IQ 2) a great attention to detail and 3) and almost maniacal work ethic. Manning, Brees, Brady...they'll all have those qualitites. Vick and Young were/are at best questionable in those three areas. Tim Tebow possesses all three, which is why I give him a better chance of developing into a top NFL passer. We'll see.

Totally agree with this, Tebow's inagibles do set him apart from the pack, so I'll cling to that and enjoy watching his progress.

BroncoInferno
04-26-2010, 01:02 PM
You guys who all are stoked for Tebow must be right. All those high paid NFL scouts must be wrong. Seriously, Tebow will be so awesome. I can't wait.

The scouts all loved JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Joe Harrington, Cade McNown and on and on, too. They also thought Drew Brees was too short and Tom Brady was too skinny. Sure, those guys are never wrong Ha! Jesus, the "experts" get wrong it more times than not when it comes to evaluating QBs. That's been proven time and time again.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 01:03 PM
The point is that you cannot call VY a "failure". You can call him a work in progress. I suppose since he was a top 3 pick you can call him a disappointment.

But the guys has done enough to at least be in the serviceable category. IMO.

Orton is the same thing. Orton just didn't come with quite as high of expectations.

Then I guess I'm confused about the argument you are trying to make here... are you trying to say that Young didn't deserve to be selected in the 1st round, or are you trying to say Tebow should have been graded as high as Young?

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 01:03 PM
But history hasn't given me any reason to think that he's going to be anything more than that. I hope I'm wrong.

What history are you referring to? Your vast and superior recollection of QBs that were drafted over the past 20 years?

This thread is about trying 2 things:
1) The consistency (or lack there of) in the draft and scouting process
2) That expectations often weigh into our projections of success or failure

Tebow was taken with the 25th overall pick. So why are the expectations for him higher than the other 24 picks ahead of him? Because people like to bash on McDaniels? Because he was such a celebrated player in college? Because he's a QB?

None of us knows for sure if Tebow will make it or not. If we had that kind of insight we'd won't be writing posts around here....

bloodsunday
04-26-2010, 01:08 PM
Then I guess I'm confused about the argument you are trying to make here... are you trying to say that Young didn't deserve to be selected in the 1st round, or are you trying to say Tebow should have been graded as high as Young?

I made two points in the first post, I'll summarize to save you the time:
1) the draft process is inconsistent and flawed (as shown by the VY/Tebow comparison)
2) people would not be so up in arms about this pick if it were done by someone that was not the resident media whipping boy (McDaniels)

Personally, I think people should just acknowledge that the whole draft is a crap shoot and that the entire circus put on over 3 days by ESPN is nothing more than a ratings grab to keep football on people's minds in the long ass 8 month off season. Despite all the crap Mel Kiper spews and all the scouting, etc.. there is simply no reason to believe a guy taken in the first round is any more likely to succeed than a guy in the third round.

StugotsIII
04-26-2010, 01:08 PM
Please.

Never AGAIN compare Tebow with Young... unless it's Steve Young.

Wow...you don't know much about college football saying something like that...


Lets make a bet...


Vince Young WILL have the better NFL career compared to Tebow at Quarterback...and Youngs career passer rating is 72.


I'm going to go ahead and ignore any statements made by you from now on...you just compared Tim Tebow to Steve Young...one of the best NFL QB's ever.Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilar ious!

bowtown
04-26-2010, 01:13 PM
What history are you referring to? Your vast and superior recollection of QBs that were drafted over the past 20 years?

All you have to do is recollect which QBs have been successful in the NFL over the past 20 years. There's a general trend, and it's not guys with big wind ups, that hop when they throw and take off running after their first read.

This thread is about trying 2 things:
1) The consistency (or lack there of) in the draft and scouting process

I think I gave you a pretty thought out response on my take in regards to this. It was all the stuff you chopped off the beinning of my quote above.

2) That expectations often weigh into our projections of success or failure

I don't know what you mean by this. Of course expectations weigh into it. Should I not expect anything from a 1st round draft selection and over 10 million guaranteed?

Tebow was taken with the 25th overall pick. So why are the expectations for him higher than the other 24 picks ahead of him?

1. Becasue he's a QB.
2. Because he was drafted by Denver. I'd guess that fans of other teams have higher expectations of their 1st round picks than of Tebow.
3. I don't actually have higher expectations of Tebow than of the other guys selected in front of him. My expectations of Tebow aren't really that high at all, if you haven't already guessed.

Because people like to bash on McDaniels? Because he was such a celebrated player in college? Because he's a QB?

Part 2 and three certainly play into it. I don't actually think it has anything to do with bashing McDaniles though, at least not in my case. I'm a McDaniels supporter, and many of the McD haters around here have suddenly jumped back on his bandwagon precisely because of this pick.

None of us knows for sure if Tebow will make it or not. If we had that kind of insight we'd won't be writing posts around here....

That's absolutely correct, and I never pretended to. You'll notice in what you quoted from me I said "I hope I'm wrong." That means I'm making a guess and I don't actually know the future.

.

Spider
04-26-2010, 01:15 PM
meh it is cause vince young is Black ....... criticism = racism ...... Dont believe me ? ask the fat **** maggot Limbaugh

Pontius Pirate
04-26-2010, 01:22 PM
The scouts all loved JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Joe Harrington, Cade McNown and on and on, too. They also thought Drew Brees was too short and Tom Brady was too skinny. Sure, those guys are never wrong Ha! Jesus, the "experts" get wrong it more times than not when it comes to evaluating QBs. That's been proven time and time again.

Totally - if only they listened to the OM!

ZONA
04-26-2010, 01:26 PM
Just curious why so many people are jumping on Denver about Tebow when all the same criticism could be made of Vince Young. No one complained (at least not this loudly) when he was taken with the #3 pick in the draft. Many figured Houston should take him #1 overall since he was a hometown kid.

Notable comparisons:
1) Poor throwing motion
2) Played on a stacked team in college (the padded stats argument)
3) Low scores on Wonderlic
4) Got by on athletic ability in college
5) A "project" in the pros

They had similar stats in college with one notable exception - Tebow took better care of the ball. Tebow averaged about 5 INTs per season as compared to VYs 10.5 INTs per year. They had similar QB ratings, similar YPA, similar completion percentages. Tebow also managed to throw an average of 27 TDs per season compared to VYs 18.

Although we didn't know it until he made it to the pros, it seems fair at this point to assume Tebow has much more mental toughness than VY as well.

So I am just wondering again, why is Tebow at #25 such a polarizing pick?

There are some pretty big discrepencies between the 2.

1) Tebow's throwing motion look much improved by ProDay. Young's did not.
2) Played on a stacked team in college. True, but Tebow won 2 NTL titles. Young only won one.
3) Low scores on Wonderlic. Tebow's was not the highest but not exactly poor. Young had a 6, that's pathetic.
4) Got by on athletic ability in college. I think Tebow taking care of the ball would be grouped in there with smarts rather then athletic ability so no, Tebow didn't just get by on athletic ability.
5) 27/5 TD to INT ratio for Tebow is very much better then Young's 18/10.5. You can't even compare these two guys when it comes to this.

MaloCS
04-26-2010, 01:27 PM
until you look at the following. Filter out the rushing touch downs for both, and just look at interceptions per passing attempt. Tebow - 66 attempts per interception, young 25 attempts per interception.

Td/int, and passing attemtps/int are highly predictive of nfl success when there are a lot of attempts. For example:
Vince young - 25 attempts per interception.
Derek anderson - 26 attempts per interceptoin.
Tim couch - 33 attempts per interception.
Jay cutler - 35 attempts per interception.
Jamarcus russel - 37 attempts per interception.
Drew brees - 38 attempts per interception(*).
Brady quinn - 40 attempts per interception.
Peyton manning - 41 attempts per interception.
Tom brady - 42 attempts per interception.
Phillip rivers - 50 attempts per interception.
Kyle orton - 52 attempts per interception.
Tim tebow - 66 attempts per interception.

There are of course outliers to these numbers (usually people who have less then 800 attempts. Drew brees is a big example of that).it's easy to see why mcdaniels loves tebow, take a look at number 2 in the league.

Of course the second argument is efficiency, which is both a function of arm strength (throw for more yards), and percentage of completions. Tebow blows away orton's college experience there.

Please don't compare young's wonderlic with tebows. It's hard enough to fight all of the current misinformation, then to even compare for a second a above nfl average, but slightly below qb average for tebow with a janitor average score for young. Likewise, young's college gpa was 2.93, while tebow was a solid 3.5.

nice post!!!!! ^5

StugotsIII
04-26-2010, 01:28 PM
There are some pretty big discrepencies between the 2.

1) Tebow's throwing motion look much improved by ProDay. Young's did not.
2) Played on a stacked team in college. True, but Tebow won 2 NTL titles. Young only won one.
3) Low scores on Wonderlic. Tebow's was not the highest but not exactly poor. Young had a 6, that's pathetic.
4) Got by on athletic ability in college. I think Tebow taking care of the ball would be grouped in there with smarts rather then athletic ability so no, Tebow didn't just get by on athletic ability.
5) 27/5 TD to INT ratio for Tebow is very much better then Young's 18/10.5. You can't even compare those 2 areas. These guys are not even close in that area.



Great! Tebow ran Meyers version of the spread option better than Young ran Mack Browns version.

Pontius Pirate
04-26-2010, 01:29 PM
nice post!!!!! ^5

Agreed. I am STOKED that we have someone who is statistically on par with Kyle Orton who plays for the....wait

BroncoInferno
04-26-2010, 01:30 PM
Totally - if only they listened to the OM!

Well, dude, this is a football discussion board. Heaven forbid we actually discuss football. We should simply assume the scouts are always correct and us peons are always wrong.

Pontius Pirate
04-26-2010, 01:34 PM
Well, dude, this is a football discussion board. Heaven forbid we actually discuss football. We should simply assume the scouts are always correct and us peons are always wrong.

Heaven never forbids anything related to Tim Tebow.

2KBack
04-26-2010, 01:57 PM
Wow...you don't know much about college football saying something like that...


Lets make a bet...


Vince Young WILL have the better NFL career compared to Tebow at Quarterback...and Youngs career passer rating is 72.


I'm going to go ahead and ignore any statements made by you from now on...you just compared Tim Tebow to Steve Young...one of the best NFL QB's ever.Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilarious!Hilar ious!

You might want to look into how Steve Young's career started.

StugotsIII
04-26-2010, 02:00 PM
You might want to look into how Steve Young's career started.

Oh my God...Young could always throw the ball...other than being white, lefty and religious they aren't alike.

bowtown
04-26-2010, 02:02 PM
You might want to look into how Steve Young's career started.

Wow, I had no idea Steve Young was benched because of his inability to learn the game plan, then threatened to quit football and basically had a year-long hissy fit because he wasn't starting.