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View Full Version : Proof that trading down and then back up in Round 1 is Smart


Carmelo15
04-20-2010, 12:45 PM
The Broncos are going to trade down, Its just a question of how far back and who are we targeting. I believe we will also move back up to the back of the 1st round and get a player that drops. There are going to be some shockers in this draft. I mocked the whoel first because I want you to see just how many of guys on Denver's board will drop and how much of a coup we can get if we play it smartly. This is how I see the top 10 shaking out:

1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford
2. Detroit Lions - Ndamokung Suh
3. Tamp Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy
4. Washington Redksins - Trent Williams
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Russell Okung
6. Seattle Seahawks - Eric Berry
7. Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden
8. Oakland Raiders - C.J. Spiller
9. Buffalo Bills - Bryan Bulaga
TRADE - Philly trades #24 and #36 to Jacksonville for #10
10. Philadelphia Eagles - Derrick Morgan

It sucks but Jacksonville takes the deal I was hoping Denver would get. However we have plenty of guys on our board still available to be very comfortable in trading down.
TRADE - Houston Texans trade #20 and # 51 to Denver for #11

11. Houston Texans - Earl Thomas
12. Miami Dolphins - Jason Pierre-Paul
13. San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Clausen (They always draft BPA)
14. Seattle Seahawks - Charles Brown
15. New York Giants - Rolando McClain
TRADE - Green Bay trades #23 and #56 to Tennessee for #16 and #97
16. Green Bay Packers - Anthony Davis
17. San Francisco 49ers - Mike Iupati
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Maurkice Pouncey
19. Atlanta Falcons - Demaryius Thomas
20. Denver Broncos - Dan Williams NT/DE, Tennessee

Denver made a tough choice between Williams, Weatherspoon, Brandon Graham and Dez Bryant. Williams can play both nose and end for us and will make an impact as a rookie. He is the best player available on our board. There are still plenty of guys on the board that Denver likes a lot (Weatherspoon, Graham, Bryant), so look for them to move up very quickly.

21. Cincinnatti Bengals - Jermaine Gresham
22. New England Patriots - Brandon Graham
23. Tennessee Titans - Kareem Jackson
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Tim Tebow
25. Baltimore Ravens - Jared Odrick

TRADE - The Denver Broncos trade #45 and #51 to Arizona for #26 and #88
26. Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant WR, Oklahoma State

The Broncos like Dez Bryant enough to take him this late. He's far too talented to pass up at this point and McDaniels believes the kid just made some mistakes and does not see a real character concern. We are really getting some impact players this draft.

TRADE - The Denver Broncos trade #43 and #80 to Dallas for #27

26. Denver Broncos - Sean Weatherspoon ILB, Missouri
The Broncos are ecstatic with Weatherspoon. They couldn't believe he fell this late but the as you can see from the board there are so many good players in this draft, some players are bound to go much later than expected. I like Spoon but I worry about how he fits in our scheme. With him and D.J. on the inside and Ayers and Doom on the outside, we have a great linebacking corps to go along with a much improved defensive line. This guy will become the Al Wilson type leader of this defense.

28. San Diego Chargers - Ryan Matthews
29. New York Jets - Jerry Hughes
30. Minnesota Vikings - Kyle Wilson
31. Indianapolis Colts - Vladimir Ducasse
32. New Orleans Saints - Brian Price

As you can see there are still plenty of good players left. The Broncos have no picks in the 2nd round but we got 3 elite prospects in the late first, all of which we considered taking at #11. We have yet to get an offensive lineman but a center can be had at 88. We still have a pick in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th, rounds.

88. Denver Broncos - J.D. Walton C, Baylor - Walton is a great run blocker and I truly believe he can be had this late. He plays with a real mean streak and brings some toughness to our interior line-.

114. Denver Broncos - Montario Hardesty RB, Tennessee - But this kid is a game changer, He will be our power back but he actually has some nice agility on him as well. Paired with Knowshon, they can become a dynamic duo in the league.

137. Denver Broncos - Armanti Edwards WR/KR/QB, Appalachian State - Armanti Edwards as such a great athlete. He will make a great impact for a 5th round pick. He will be our kick returner and a great weapon for the wildhorses formation. This guy could become a Joshua Cribbs like playmaker in the NFL.

183. Denver Broncos - Joe Hawley OG/C, UNLV - Brings some depth and versatility to our offensive line and we have shown interest in him.

All of our guys were on our prospect workout list so I KNOW we have real interest in all of them. If this draft were to come to fruition it would have a chance to make an even larger impact than 2006. McDaniels needs to have great draft. With a 1st and 2 2nds next year, we will be able to continue to build a great team. This draft is so strong I wouldn't mind us trading one of those picks for another pick this year.

http://jacobx.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/ncf_u_williams_600.jpghttp://www.6magazineonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/DezBryant_002.jpghttp://missouricolumns.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/weatherspoon.jpghttp://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0121/dal_u_walton_600.jpghttp://www.draftbulletin.com/Hardesty.jpghttp://www.hhblog2007.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/sp-edwards29_04990412951.jpghttp://rebelnation.lvrj.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/hawleymugimg_1121.jpg

bfoflcommish
04-20-2010, 01:13 PM
Denver isnt paying 3 1st rounders.

Ziggy
04-20-2010, 01:30 PM
Madden is great, isn't it?

Broncoman13
04-20-2010, 01:39 PM
The numbers work out in terms of trade value, but I don't think the Broncos are going to pay that much for rookies.

Next, stay away from Williams. He is very similar to Ayers in that he didn't really show up until it was time to work for a pay day. Could be that he was a late bloomer. Could be that Monte Kiffin's system worked for him. I'm not comfortable drafting a first round pick and putting him in a completely different scheme and front. At #20 the value is much better than it would be at #11 so you do have that going for you.

Can't argue with Dez Bryant, but I can't see a scenario where he falls that fall.

And the fact that we didn't draft a single OL in those top three picks is disturbing.

IF that scenario were an option, I'd prefer Iupati at 20, Bryant at 26, and Pouncey at 27.

Carmelo15
04-20-2010, 02:44 PM
The numbers work out in terms of trade value, but I don't think the Broncos are going to pay that much for rookies.

IF that scenario were an option, I'd prefer Iupati at 20, Bryant at 26, and Pouncey at 27.

At least you caught the point of my thread. Even if we keep 2 2nds rather than trade for 26. We can still get two guys like Pouncey n Weathetspoon at 20 & 27. Then get guys like Terrence Cody and Damian Williams in round 2.

mattob14
04-20-2010, 03:01 PM
Denver isnt paying 3 1st rounders.

I'm not sure how realistic this scenario is, but I don't think money would be the hang-up. The total money paid to last year's #11, #43, and #45 is pretty close to #20, #26, and #27:

11, 43, 45:
Total avg annual salaries: $6.98m (5 yr deal for 11, 4 yr deals for 43 and 45)
Guaranteed money: $17.7m

20, 26, 27:
Total avg annual salaries: $8.23m (all 5 yr deals)
Guaranteed money: $23.35m

The gap in guaranteed money is fairly significant, but most high draft choices will be around long enough to receive most of their contracts anyway, and the annual salaries are close enough to make it possible. If Denver thought they could add true impact talent at the end of round 1 (Bryant and Weatherspoon certainly qualify, imo) I don't think the money would stop them from pulling the trigger.

chaz
04-20-2010, 03:25 PM
I'm not sure how realistic this scenario is, but I don't think money would be the hang-up. The total money paid to last year's #11, #43, and #45 is pretty close to #20, #26, and #27:

11, 43, 45:
Total avg annual salaries: $6.98m (5 yr deal for 11, 4 yr deals for 43 and 45)
Guaranteed money: $17.7m

20, 26, 27:
Total avg annual salaries: $8.23m (all 5 yr deals)
Guaranteed money: $23.35m

The gap in guaranteed money is fairly significant, but most high draft choices will be around long enough to receive most of their contracts anyway, and the annual salaries are close enough to make it possible. If Denver thought they could add true impact talent at the end of round 1 (Bryant and Weatherspoon certainly qualify, imo) I don't think the money would stop them from pulling the trigger.

thanks matt, i didn't think the numbers would be too far off but wasn't about to look it up :thumbsup:

crush17
04-20-2010, 04:00 PM
lol... 3 first rounders... come on man.

Doggcow
04-20-2010, 04:20 PM
Rofl

ludo21
04-20-2010, 06:14 PM
I love the work you put in and all the draft picks would be great picks, but no way we take 3 1st rounders. Money is real

no-pseudo-fan
04-20-2010, 06:52 PM
I honestly would rather pick 3 2nds than 2 additional 1st. Round 3 -5 are going to get some real gems that will help this team.

We get 3 2's we can run top of day 2.

mattob14
04-20-2010, 07:09 PM
thanks matt, i didn't think the numbers would be too far off but wasn't about to look it up :thumbsup:

Yeah, I had a few minutes to kill this afternoon...;D

Elway777
04-20-2010, 08:36 PM
I think I rather have Odrick instead of Williams . Odrick, Bryant , Weatherspoon draft would be awesome.Then broncos look at building offensive line plus add 3-4 pass rusher.

OBF1
04-20-2010, 11:49 PM
Jesus Christ man, you forgot this...... Denver trades Doom for a mid round 1st as well, 4 in the first :)

KevinJames
04-21-2010, 01:12 AM
Montario Hardesty RB, Tennessee

why draft a guy thats so similar to Kno?

Elway777
04-21-2010, 04:31 AM
I might grap Brandon Graham instead of williams or Bryant. I would weap with joy if the Broncos add Graham , Bryant and Weatherspoon.I also love the Walton and Hawley picks.

RocBronc
04-21-2010, 06:03 AM
This is a fantastic draft... One problem.... There's no way Bryant lasts to 26. He won't last to 15 IMO. I think most people have realized that there has been a little overreaction to his "character issues" and that he won't be that big of a risk with the talent he has.
Substitute Kyle Wilson and I would still be ecstatic about this haul on draft day.

Broncoman13
04-21-2010, 06:20 AM
Jesus Christ man, you forgot this...... Denver trades Doom for a mid round 1st as well, 4 in the first :)

It has been done before... The NY Jets had 4 first round picks (and used them all if memory serves) about 10 years ago. I think that is the draft they used to select Pennington and Becht.