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View Full Version : ESPN Poll: Would you give up a top 10 pick for Brandon Marshall?


The MVPlaya
03-08-2010, 03:58 AM
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robbieopperude
03-08-2010, 05:40 AM
Washington says NO

The Joker
03-08-2010, 06:14 AM
A late 1st is his value, I would guess.

In terms of his pure ability, he's worth a Top 5 pick and probably something on top of that.

But you just can't ignore the amount of concerns there are with the guy. At the end of the day, you really don't need an elite WR to win in the NFL, and it's not a position a guy can transform your team from like a great QB or RB can.

So giving up a really high pick (not to mention a huge contract) to a guy who has the question marks Brandon does over him isn't a smart move, IMO.

Pseudofool
03-08-2010, 06:50 AM
Too bad Arkansas doesn't have a team.

barryr
03-08-2010, 07:02 AM
I wouldn't give a top 10 pick for Marshall just because of his off the field issues and conduct during last training camp. Giving a high draft choice and big money to a guy with maturity issues spells trouble.

Cool Breeze
03-08-2010, 07:06 AM
I wouldn't give a top 10 pick for Marshall just because of his off the field issues and conduct during last training camp. Giving a high draft choice and big money to a guy with maturity issues spells trouble.

I think that is Denver's position too - common sense really.

oubronco
03-08-2010, 07:07 AM
I would do it in a second

barters
03-08-2010, 07:10 AM
What you have to consider is how long he would last if he was on the board. Which is essentially the situation.

If Marshall was playing for the Giants (for example) and wanted out I bet people would want us to shift some picks for him.

I would give anything from 3 downwards for Marshall.

TonyR
03-08-2010, 07:20 AM
I would do it in a second

Then you should find it interesting that out of 31 teams thus far not a single one has offerred up their first round pick for him. In other words, taking everything into consideration, you're overvaluing him.

oubronco
03-08-2010, 07:25 AM
Then you should find it interesting that out of 31 teams thus far not a single one has offerred up their first round pick for him. In other words, taking everything into consideration, you're overvaluing him.

Proven player versus crapshoot draft pick i'm taking the proven player :thumbsup:

TonyR
03-08-2010, 07:35 AM
Proven player versus crapshoot draft pick i'm taking the proven player :thumbsup:

I understand the logic, and a lot of people agree with you. But clearly most/all NFL organizations feel differently. It's not the no-brainer many believe it is.

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 07:47 AM
Then you should find it interesting that out of 31 teams thus far not a single one has offerred up their first round pick for him. In other words, taking everything into consideration, you're overvaluing him.

That's an incorrect conclusion to make.

FA is less than a week old. Have some patience. It's not like anyone has offered a first, second or third round pick for any other RFA in the entire league right now. That doesn't mean no team values those RFAs any less than what they were tendered. It just means they are probably exploring all possible options before making any offer. What a shock.

SportinOne
03-08-2010, 08:08 AM
That's an incorrect conclusion to make.

FA is less than a week old. Have some patience. It's not like anyone has offered a first, second or third round pick for any other RFA in the entire league right now. That doesn't mean no team values those RFAs any less than what they were tendered. It just means they are probably exploring all possible options before making any offer. What a shock.

My thoughts exactly. We are GOING TO GET a 1st round pick for marshall if we decide not to keep him. End of story.

TonyR
03-08-2010, 08:20 AM
That's an incorrect conclusion to make.


I agree with your overall point but at the same time I don't think my "conclusion" is at all "incorrect". I understand it's early. Sure somebody may end up paying a 1st round pick for Marshall. But there won't be teams lining up to acquire him. My overall point is that many/most people are overvaluing Marshall by looking only at his on field production and not looking at the big picture. If it was such a slam dunk somebody would have signed him to an offer sheet by now.

Garcia Bronco
03-08-2010, 08:23 AM
Then you should find it interesting that out of 31 teams thus far not a single one has offerred up their first round pick for him. In other words, taking everything into consideration, you're overvaluing him.

That or teams are low balling us thinking he could be got for cheap.

rmsanger
03-08-2010, 08:29 AM
Boldin for a 3rd pretty much lets you know where Marshall's value is. Boldin is a tier below skillwise, recent injury concerns, and a bit older (4 years?). However Boldin doesn't have the maturity and suspension concerns, which has to count for something.

I'm guessing Boldin = 3rd then Marshal = high 2nd/Low first at best....

Garcia Bronco
03-08-2010, 08:30 AM
Boldin for a 3rd pretty much lets you know where Marshall's value is. Boldin is a tier below skillwise, recent injury concerns, and a bit older (4 years?). However Boldin doesn't have the maturity and suspension concerns, which has to count for something.

I'm guessing Boldin = 3rd then Marshal = high 2nd/Low first at best....

If we don't get a first, then there is no point in moving him.

TheDave
03-08-2010, 08:31 AM
We are a better team with him... much better. I just don't know if the coach and the player can co-exist.

As for the "Is he worth a top 10 pick?"

Absolutely, but NFL teams greatly over value draft picks, especially top 10 picks.

strafen
03-08-2010, 08:33 AM
If this doesn't send a clear statement to Marshall about the importance of staying clean and away from making the headlines for the wrong reasons, nothing will.I think he knows why he's not drawing a lot of attention. It's ultimately his own fault.I like Marshall the football player, but he has made some bonehead mistakes that have clealry affected his football career.

Traveler
03-08-2010, 08:34 AM
We are a better team with him... much better. I just don't know if the coach and the player can co-exist.

They can if BM doesn't have anymore off the field incidents.

TheDave
03-08-2010, 08:37 AM
They can if BM doesn't have anymore off the field incidents.

To the best of our knowledge, there was no problems with Brandon after the training camp punting incident.

Yet somehow he was benched for the last game... that tells me these two just may be oil & water

oubronco
03-08-2010, 08:37 AM
If we don't get a first, then there is no point in moving him.

a high first at that

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 08:57 AM
If it was such a slam dunk somebody would have signed him to an offer sheet by now.

This has less to do with Marshall and more to do with the current state of the CBA. You can bet that if the CBA had been worked out and 2011 was good to go, Marshall (and at least 3/4 of the RFAs in the league) would've been signed either by us or someone else already.

TonyR
03-08-2010, 09:05 AM
This has less to do with Marshall and more to do with the current state of the CBA.

Certainly a factor. Although for whatever reasons RFA's don't move very often, with the main reasons probably being that teams place high value on draft picks and many/most teams match offers to their RFA's. Check out this little factoid:

Competitors can try to pry away restricted free agents by giving up draft picks, but this rarely happens. There were 55 restricted free agents last season—none switched teams.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703862704575100023437600734.html

Tombstone RJ
03-08-2010, 09:09 AM
He's a top 10 talent on the field with a 10 cent brain off the field.

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 09:25 AM
Although for whatever reasons RFA's don't move very often, with the main reasons probably being that teams place high value on draft picks and many/most teams match offers to their RFA's.

It's the poison pill factor. If the owners did away with their "gentlemen's agreement" never to use them again, you'd see a lot more movement and trades involving RFAs.

underrated29
03-08-2010, 10:15 AM
I would never give up a top 10 pick for him. Pretty much ever.

And Yes, I am a huge Marshall fan.

Play2win
03-08-2010, 11:02 AM
For a top 10 pick, the poll is a lot closer than I thought it would be. Because us as fans cherish first round picks so much, and top ten picks even more. Probably more so than owners, head coaches, and GMs even do...

bloodsunday
03-08-2010, 11:10 AM
If you think about this, a team would be foolish not to.

Here's why:
Marshall, while a bit overrated IMO, is a Pro Bowl WR. That means he's been in the league and "done that" for 4 seasons. He's young and he's motivated. You'd have to give up a 1st round pick and somewhere between 30 and 50M (total) to get him.

Contrast that to ANY guy picked in the first round this year and it's a no-brainer. The odds that Marshall is a good football player are significantly higher than any guy that has yet to touch an NFL field, period. And, if you are in the top 10 (like Seattle), you'll have to give that guy as much or more money. Even the guys like Suh are not sure-fire picks. Remember when Glen Dorsey came out? You just don't know until they get on an NFL field and have to treat football as a "job" how it will turn out. Why was it that the Bears gave up 2 1st round picks and a QB to get Cutler? Because even with his "flaws", he was a much smaller risk for them than Stafford, Clausen, Bradford, Tebow, etc...

An established, young player should always be a bigger commodity than a 1st round pick.

oubronco
03-08-2010, 11:24 AM
If you think about this, a team would be foolish not to.

Here's why:
Marshall, while a bit overrated IMO, is a Pro Bowl WR. That means he's been in the league and "done that" for 4 seasons. He's young and he's motivated. You'd have to give up a 1st round pick and somewhere between 30 and 50M (total) to get him.

Contrast that to ANY guy picked in the first round this year and it's a no-brainer. The odds that Marshall is a good football player are significantly higher than any guy that has yet to touch an NFL field, period. And, if you are in the top 10 (like Seattle), you'll have to give that guy as much or more money. Even the guys like Suh are not sure-fire picks. Remember when Glen Dorsey came out? You just don't know until they get on an NFL field and have to treat football as a "job" how it will turn out. Why was it that the Bears gave up 2 1st round picks and a QB to get Cutler? Because even with his "flaws", he was a much smaller risk for them than Stafford, Clausen, Bradford, Tebow, etc...

An established, young player should always be a bigger commodity than a 1st round pick.

you'll never convince these guys but your right on

TonyR
03-08-2010, 11:36 AM
An established, young player should always be a bigger commodity than a 1st round pick.

But you're leaving out two major factors:
1) Marshall's non football related issues, which can't be ignored
2) Not many teams are targeting the WR position with their 1st round pick

Tombstone RJ
03-08-2010, 11:39 AM
But you're leaving out two major factors:
1) Marshall's non football related issues, which can't be ignored
2) Not many teams are targeting the WR position with their 1st round pick

I think bloodsunday's post went right over your head. Bloodsunday is talking about the risk/reward factor for a player like Bmarsh. In essence, the reward outweighs the risk because Bmarsh is a proven commodity in the nfl.

TonyR
03-08-2010, 11:42 AM
I think bloodsunday's post went right over your head.

Nothing went over my head, his post stated the obvious. It's the things that aren't so obvious that some of you seem to be missing. Including the fact that, to this point, 31 NFL teams appear to agree with me.

underrated29
03-08-2010, 11:54 AM
I look at it like this. If I am a team that has a top 10 pick then my team sucks. My team has a lot of needs all over the place. Not at one position, otherwise I would not be picking top 10.

With my top 10 pick I want someone that has no suspensions waiting in the winds. A player who does not always seem to find trouble, problems or ex girlfriends. Also my top 10 pick cant take plays off or half ass a lot things. And I find no reason that my team with so many holes can not find 1 player out of the thousands of college prospects who can come in right away and tear things up.


Dont get me wrong, I love brandon, but really his main attributes are catches. And catches to me mean jack compared to all the other things you are suppsed to do. Esp when he consists of like 30% of all the throws.

Garcia Bronco
03-08-2010, 11:57 AM
I wouldn't give up a top ten pick for him. He's not worht the money or the trouble.

oubronco
03-08-2010, 12:00 PM
I wouldn't give up a top ten pick for him. He's not worht the money or the trouble.

who is in your opinion

Garcia Bronco
03-08-2010, 12:08 PM
who is in your opinion

Suh is IMO.

oubronco
03-08-2010, 12:10 PM
Suh is IMO.

ok I meant wr

Natedog24
03-08-2010, 12:28 PM
Its playing the odds. I personally feel the odds are better that Marshall works out then it is that you are going to find a player more talented then Marshall at the number 6 spot in the draft.

bloodsunday
03-08-2010, 12:40 PM
But you're leaving out two major factors:
1) Marshall's non football related issues, which can't be ignored
2) Not many teams are targeting the WR position with their 1st round pick

What percentage of players in the first round have "baggage" or other issues? If you are picky enough, you could say ALL OF THEM? Bradford is hurt. Tebow doesn't run and NFL offense. Dez Bryant is a moron. Percy Harvin did pot. Sanchez only started 16 games at the NCAA level. There's always a reason that a guy is a risk when $50M is involved. ALWAYS! The biggest risk of all is that they are all under 22 and have never played against guys at this level. It is always fair to wonder if a guy's success will translate to the NFL.

As for your second point, EVERY team is targeting a playmaker in the first round. And at least half of them will "take the best available" player. So, I see your point, but I don't think it changes mine. Brandon Marshall would be a Pro Bowler for every team in this year's draft. No team can have too many of those.

bloodsunday
03-08-2010, 12:43 PM
Nothing went over my head, his post stated the obvious. It's the things that aren't so obvious that some of you seem to be missing. Including the fact that, to this point, 31 NFL teams appear to agree with me.

Yeah, well you are assuming that those 31 teams aren't run by people making emotion-based decisions. I am arguing from a statistically logical position.

I think if there is anything to be said for what you are suggesting, it could be the "de-valuing" of the WR position. If we were talking about a QB (like we were with Cutler last year), then there would be a lot more teams that agree with me! Probably the same thing for DL.

bloodsunday
03-08-2010, 12:45 PM
Its playing the odds. I personally feel the odds are better that Marshall works out then it is that you are going to find a player more talented then Marshall at the number 6 spot in the draft.

If there were a rookie salary cap in place, then I MIGHT disagree with this point (and really my own point). But given how much these 1st round picks get paid these days, there is as much risk (or more) than there is in BMarsh. Seattle is going to pay a guy (with the #6 pick) that they know far less about (football-wise) more many than they would pay B-Marsh.

Tombstone RJ
03-08-2010, 12:48 PM
Nothing went over my head, his post stated the obvious. It's the things that aren't so obvious that some of you seem to be missing. Including the fact that, to this point, 31 NFL teams appear to agree with me.

Risk/reward. It's less on Bmarsh than on an unknown draft pick. Why? 1. you know what he can do on the field 2. you can structure a contract accordingly for any off the field probabilities.

You can't do that with a draft pick. Even if you look at a draft picks background and see no problems, that's no guarantee he won't get into trouble after he signs a big contract. After all, money can create a lot of stress for people who have never dealt with having a lot of money.

How do you know that a guy like Suh wont' sign a big fat contract (with millions guaranteed) and then go out, get drunk, slap his girlfriend around and then slam his new shiney car into a tree?

Fact is, you don't.

With Bmarsh there's a chance he may get into trouble off the field, but there's also a real good possibility he stays out of trouble and just keeps producing. Either way, you protect yourself negotiating a contract that cya if something like that should occur.

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 01:59 PM
Risk/reward. It's less on Bmarsh than on an unknown draft pick. Why? 1. you know what he can do on the field 2. you can structure a contract accordingly for any off the field probabilities.


The Broncos tried that last offseason. Brandon and his agent laughed at it and wouldn't sign.

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 02:01 PM
ok I meant wr

Unless you had a crystal ball handy and had an ironclad guarantee of getting Jerry Rice production or something similar out of him, I would NEVER take a WR in the top 10 picks. Never.

I personally just don't value the position that much.

colonelbeef
03-08-2010, 02:30 PM
What you have to consider is how long he would last if he was on the board. Which is essentially the situation.

If Marshall was playing for the Giants (for example) and wanted out I bet people would want us to shift some picks for him.

I would give anything from 3 downwards for Marshall.

Exactly. Brandon Marshall would be a top 3 pick, and perhaps a #1 overall pick, dependent on team needs.

Merlin
03-08-2010, 02:46 PM
I understand the logic, and a lot of people agree with you. But clearly most/all NFL organizations feel differently. It's not the no-brainer many believe it is.
Maybe it is like the old line "Nobody ever got fired for buying __X___ brand". X being whatever Juggernaut ruled the technology at the time. I.e.; nobody ever got fired for not trading their 1st round draft choice for a player, especially one with a history.

Ambiguous
03-08-2010, 02:57 PM
Arkansas loves Brandon Marshall.

Beantown Bronco
03-08-2010, 03:03 PM
Exactly. Brandon Marshall would be a top 3 pick, and perhaps a #1 overall pick, dependent on team needs.

Technically you could say that about several starters on any given team. Enter them in the draft and they'd go high in the first round just because you know what you are getting.

elsid13
03-08-2010, 03:44 PM
Arkansas loves Brandon Marshall.

It because he helping Mock build the state a roof.

rastaman
03-08-2010, 04:33 PM
Then you should find it interesting that out of 31 teams thus far not a single one has offerred up their first round pick for him. In other words, taking everything into consideration, you're overvaluing him.

Couldn't you say Denver is over valuing Brandon as well and teams are taking advantage of the Broncos decision not to sign him long term due to his past off the field issues, why should Denver believe any other team should give up a top 10 first round pick and sign Bmarsh to a long term lucrative contract?

Another thought, after the 2010 season can Denver go into the 2011 FA season and continue to demand a top 5 draft pick to honor a trade? Especially if Marshall's production and stats decline in 2010.

Marshall is just going to have to be patient and stay out of trouble and stay healthy just to get out of Denver in the next 2 years b/c both off the field decisions and his health are keys to both getting out of Denver and realizing his financially secure contract.

Brandon needs to smarten up and realize his longterm career and eventually realizing his big day has more to do with staying healthy than it has to do with achieving his 4 consecutive 100 plus season for a team thats black mailing him with his PAST off the field problems as an excuse as to not signing him to a top 5 long term NFL WR salary.

OrangenBlueOhio
03-08-2010, 06:00 PM
Nothing went over my head, his post stated the obvious. It's the things that aren't so obvious that some of you seem to be missing. Including the fact that, to this point, 31 NFL teams appear to agree with me.

Or... the 31 other NFL teams know Mcd hates him and are holding out for Josh to make another "Cutleresque mistake".

Seattle: We want Bmarsh for our 4th, 5th, and a box kleenex.

Josh: Your'e gonna have to give me a few to think on that one.

Josh to Pat: I got em right where we want em Pat!

Josh to Seattle: I don't know, I think you're gonna have to throw in a pound of Starbucks or no deal.

Seattle: Okay were takin back the kleenex

Josh: now comeon boys don't get excited, it's a deal!

The MVPlaya
03-08-2010, 06:06 PM
Or... the 31 other NFL teams know Mcd hates him and are holding out for Josh to make another "Cutleresque mistake".

Seattle: We want Bmarsh for our 4th, 5th, and a box kleenex.

Josh: Your'e gonna have to give me a few to think on that one.

Josh to Pat: I got em right where we want em Pat!

Josh to Seattle: I don't know, I think you're gonna have to throw in a pound of Starbucks or no deal.

Seattle: Okay were takin back the kleenex

Josh: now comeon boys don't get excited, it's a deal!

WTF? Kyle Orton + 2 1st round picks is now all of a sudden a rip off? I don't recall value being the problem with the Cutler situation.

lol@ people making sh.it up.

Lomax
03-09-2010, 05:16 AM
We are a better team with him... much better. I just don't know if the coach and the player can co-exist.

As for the "Is he worth a top 10 pick?"

Absolutely, but NFL teams greatly over value draft picks, especially top 10 picks.

They're valuable. Fact is, most of the teams picking top 10 are bad drafting teams. Hence the fact that they are picking where they are. But a good pick can land you Philip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Suggs, Andre Johnson, etc. Way more valuable than Marshall, without the history.

So I wouldn't go so far as to say he's worth a top 10 pick just because he's a proven player. He's not exactly a "safe" pick either. But the ceiling is much greater with the pick.

Also, as someone else mentioned, WRs are just not worth high picks unless they are the dominant forces like Moss, Fitz, or Johnson are. So you don't trade a top 10 pick that can get you that elite QB, RB or pass rusher for the 1100 yds and 10 TDs of production Marshall will give you.

Exactly. Brandon Marshall would be a top 3 pick, and perhaps a #1 overall pick, dependent on team needs.

That's insane. Teams would be all over him if that were the case.

TonyR
03-09-2010, 07:10 AM
So I wouldn't go so far as to say he's worth a top 10 pick just because he's a proven player...

Great post. This is what I've been trying to convince people of for the last couple of days. Many are focused on the "he's a sure thing and the draft is a crap shoot" narrative while ignoring all the other major factors. And the weak market for Marshall thus far is a clear indication of the way NFL organizations are looking at it.

Paladin
03-09-2010, 07:28 AM
Weak market? I think teams are falling all over themselves trying to get out the door! They are stuck and piled up in the jamb just getting away from Marshall. The lovefest for Marshall's "on-field brilliance" means squat when it comes to team chemistry and reliability. Besides, WRs are really not as difficult to find as the other players one might get in a top ten pick as hjs been pointed out.

Marshall is not worth more than 2 mil a year right now. The Broncos offered him nine mil a year, but he wanted more money "up front" and "guaranteed". Marshall needs to be more "up front" and give better guarantees. And grow the Eff up......

bloodsunday
03-09-2010, 07:31 AM
Couldn't you say Denver is over valuing Brandon as well and teams are taking advantage of the Broncos decision not to sign him long term due to his past off the field issues, why should Denver believe any other team should give up a top 10 first round pick and sign Bmarsh to a long term lucrative contract?
No Denver is not overvaluing Brandon. He's a Pro Bowl player 2 years in a row. What percentage of this year's first round picks will accomplish that? Less than 50%. And Brandon is one of Denver's best players, they cannot let him walk for nothing, especially after the tumultuous off-season they had last year. Denver has put a fair price on Brandon and agreed to let him explore the open market. Seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Another thought, after the 2010 season can Denver go into the 2011 FA season and continue to demand a top 5 draft pick to honor a trade? Especially if Marshall's production and stats decline in 2010.

Marshall is just going to have to be patient and stay out of trouble and stay healthy just to get out of Denver in the next 2 years b/c both off the field decisions and his health are keys to both getting out of Denver and realizing his financially secure contract.

I would say this thing will get resolved one way or another before 2011. If Brandon is not gone this year, chances are he will sign a longer-term deal with Denver. His windows is too short, he doesn't have many other options.