Bronco Rob
02-16-2010, 03:38 AM
Four Downs: AFC West : Denver: What went wrong in the second half?
15 Feb 2010
Four Downs: AFC West by Bill Barnwell
Denver: What went wrong in the second half?
The Broncos' 2-8 collapse after a 6-0 start cost them what appeared to be a guaranteed playoff spot; teams that start 6-0 have historically made the playoffs more than 96 percent of the time. The 2003 Vikings were the only team since 1990 to also start 6-0 and proceed to miss the playoffs. So what changed, and what do the Broncos need to do in 2010 to play more like the first half version?
You can start with something Denver can't control: Injuries. Denver starters missed only three games from Weeks 1-9, an absurdly low total. From Week 10 on, they missed 10; that's still way below league average, but not a historically-low total like the first half figure was. Unfortunately, injury levels almost always regress to the mean on a year-to-year basis, and the Broncos are all but guaranteed to see more injuries, not fewer, in 2010.
On the field, the biggest difference for Denver across the two halves was their rush defense. Through Week 9, Football Outsiders' advanced DVOA metric (explained here) rated the Denver run defense with -18.2% DVOA against the run, the second-best figure in football. After Week 9, though, the Broncos were miserable: their 11.3% DVOA was the second-worst in football over the final eight weeks. Teams were able to get into manageable situations by running the ball on first down, averaging 4.95 yards per first-down carry during Weeks 10-17. That's way up from 4.13 yards per first-down carry in the first two months.
So, how to fix it? Denver's already made one move, allowing defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to leave for Miami. (That's not necessarily a good move.) If you're in the camp that chalks up the second-half decline to a worn-down defensive line, the Broncos would be wise to add more big bodies up front that fit their 3-4 scheme. One spot in particular would be at nose tackle, where Ronald Fields is a situational player stretched as a starter. If the Broncos target one player in free agency, it should be 49ers nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, who would be the perfect fit for their needs and scheme.
Who Might Leave?
Wide receiver Brandon Marshall seems poised to depart; although he's a restricted free agent, Marshall is likely to be traded before the draft for picks, although it's hard to find a team that hasn't outwardly rejected the possibility of acquiring Marshall. Chicago needs a wide receiver, but doesn't have a first- or second-round pick, while mooted targets like San Francisco and Seattle don't make sense.
Elvis Dumervil and Kyle Orton are also restricted free agents, but the likelihood of either departing is roughly nil. On the unrestricted front, guards Ben Hamilton and Russ Hochstein are both free to leave, as is center Casey Wiegmann. The three combined for 34 starts this year up front.
Who Could They Add?
The aforementioned Franklin would be the perfect addition, but if he's not franchised by the 49ers, he might follow Nolan to Miami. If Franklin isn't available, assuming that Vince Wilfork remains off the market, the team could splurge for Steelers NT Casey Hampton or the Packers' Ryan Pickett. The unrestricted market for guards is thin, so unless Denver finds a palatable option in restricted free agency, there's not much to be done there. With Tony Scheffler an RFA, McDaniels could make a move for his former tight end in New England, Benjamin Watson, who's unrestricted.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/four-downs/2010/four-downs-afc-west
15 Feb 2010
Four Downs: AFC West by Bill Barnwell
Denver: What went wrong in the second half?
The Broncos' 2-8 collapse after a 6-0 start cost them what appeared to be a guaranteed playoff spot; teams that start 6-0 have historically made the playoffs more than 96 percent of the time. The 2003 Vikings were the only team since 1990 to also start 6-0 and proceed to miss the playoffs. So what changed, and what do the Broncos need to do in 2010 to play more like the first half version?
You can start with something Denver can't control: Injuries. Denver starters missed only three games from Weeks 1-9, an absurdly low total. From Week 10 on, they missed 10; that's still way below league average, but not a historically-low total like the first half figure was. Unfortunately, injury levels almost always regress to the mean on a year-to-year basis, and the Broncos are all but guaranteed to see more injuries, not fewer, in 2010.
On the field, the biggest difference for Denver across the two halves was their rush defense. Through Week 9, Football Outsiders' advanced DVOA metric (explained here) rated the Denver run defense with -18.2% DVOA against the run, the second-best figure in football. After Week 9, though, the Broncos were miserable: their 11.3% DVOA was the second-worst in football over the final eight weeks. Teams were able to get into manageable situations by running the ball on first down, averaging 4.95 yards per first-down carry during Weeks 10-17. That's way up from 4.13 yards per first-down carry in the first two months.
So, how to fix it? Denver's already made one move, allowing defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to leave for Miami. (That's not necessarily a good move.) If you're in the camp that chalks up the second-half decline to a worn-down defensive line, the Broncos would be wise to add more big bodies up front that fit their 3-4 scheme. One spot in particular would be at nose tackle, where Ronald Fields is a situational player stretched as a starter. If the Broncos target one player in free agency, it should be 49ers nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, who would be the perfect fit for their needs and scheme.
Who Might Leave?
Wide receiver Brandon Marshall seems poised to depart; although he's a restricted free agent, Marshall is likely to be traded before the draft for picks, although it's hard to find a team that hasn't outwardly rejected the possibility of acquiring Marshall. Chicago needs a wide receiver, but doesn't have a first- or second-round pick, while mooted targets like San Francisco and Seattle don't make sense.
Elvis Dumervil and Kyle Orton are also restricted free agents, but the likelihood of either departing is roughly nil. On the unrestricted front, guards Ben Hamilton and Russ Hochstein are both free to leave, as is center Casey Wiegmann. The three combined for 34 starts this year up front.
Who Could They Add?
The aforementioned Franklin would be the perfect addition, but if he's not franchised by the 49ers, he might follow Nolan to Miami. If Franklin isn't available, assuming that Vince Wilfork remains off the market, the team could splurge for Steelers NT Casey Hampton or the Packers' Ryan Pickett. The unrestricted market for guards is thin, so unless Denver finds a palatable option in restricted free agency, there's not much to be done there. With Tony Scheffler an RFA, McDaniels could make a move for his former tight end in New England, Benjamin Watson, who's unrestricted.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/four-downs/2010/four-downs-afc-west