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View Full Version : Are the odds better than Akers misses a 30 yard FG or us scoring a TD?


gyldenlove
12-30-2009, 06:11 PM
At the end of the Eagles game last Sunday I had this weird feeling.

When the review came back and they called the catch on the sideline to put the Eagles in our red zone, I thought, just have the defense stand aside and let the Eagles score on the first play.

Here is my thinking:

There was less than 2 minutes left and we had 2 timeouts left. The Eagles could run the ball 3 times, let the clock run down to 1, take a timeout and kick a 30 yard FG with a few seconds left to play. The odds that Akers misses a 30 yarder are not good, he is hitting a click over 96% on kicks of 29 yards or shorter including extra points this year and has not missed a FG of 29 or shorter. So that puts our expected probability of not losing at about 4%, not counting the minute probability of forcing a fumble AND recovering it.

If we had let the Eagles walk into the end zone on the first play from scrimmage we would have had to score a TD to tie, however we would have had about 1 minute and 2 timeouts to do so. What is the probability that we can get a TD in a minute with 2 timeouts when we are in 4 down territory all the way? I think it is more than 4%.

I know it is some crazy thinking, but I really think that in some situations you are better off letting the other team score, especially as I think in the situation when they were running if we had pretended to play defense the RB would have punched it in on 1st down and not stopped on the 1 yard line (and if that happens just carry him in).
As a side note I was confused by Phillys decision to run the ball, Akers didn't need the few extra yards to make the kick and they risked a bad exchange or snap, to me the clever thing would have been to go to victory formation, take a knee, move the ball to the middle of the field and kick the FG.

Mr.Meanie
12-30-2009, 06:25 PM
I had thought that too, but then I remembered last year a team tried to do that and Westbrook ran it and suddenly stopped and took a knee at the 1. The chances of hitting a field goal at the 1 are way higher than at 30+.

OBF1
12-30-2009, 06:30 PM
Knowing all of this, How about instead of us punting the ball on 4th and 2 we go for it knowing they would score since they would be getting the ball on our side of the 50 with the way hamberger had been punting?

bap454
12-30-2009, 06:33 PM
Funny thing was that I was thinking the exact same thing when they got into field goal range. It made sense to me. I just felt McD would not have the balls or the savy to try it. Thats when I think we miss having a Vet coach like Shanny, who would have gambled... just my opinion.

gyldenlove
12-30-2009, 06:36 PM
I had thought that too, but then I remembered last year a team tried to do that and Westbrook ran it and suddenly stopped and took a knee at the 1. The chances of hitting a field goal at the 1 are way higher than at 30+.

That is why you need someone to shadow him and make sure he "falls" into the end zone.

broncocalijohn
12-30-2009, 06:54 PM
Reason why i didnt think that was a chance of a penalty that back it up 10 yards. I believe they played to set up the field goal anyways. Letting them score? It wouldnt have bothered me if they went 98 Packers but Denver did it the correct way.