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View Full Version : now that weve seen the playoff scenarios, do you think we make the playoffs?


tsiguy96
12-29-2009, 01:56 PM
its not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, and not really improbable either. all the games being played (bal @ oak, pitt @ miami, cin @ nyj, ne @ houston) are not gimmes at all, and we have a LOT of combinations that get us in. so make your prediction, do we sneak in?

Man-Goblin
12-29-2009, 02:10 PM
No, but I wouldn't be shocked.

misturanderson
12-29-2009, 02:10 PM
I would put it at about 70/30 that we don't get in. Too many things have to go right for us and our team seems to have lost all of it's luck since the bye week.

BigPlayShay
12-29-2009, 02:16 PM
I am holding out hope. Baltimore is 2-5 on the road and those wins were early on against San Diego who was struggling, and mid-season against Cleveland. I think Houston wins as New England will rest players IMHO. I also think that the Jets have a chance to drop the game against Cincy simply because Sanchez has obvioulsy hit a wall, and Cincy is pretty good against the run.

The scenario I see as having the best chance to happen is:

NYJ loss + HOU win

Hercules Rockefeller
12-29-2009, 02:21 PM
Doubt it, but I won't give up hope that they will

Rabb
12-29-2009, 02:22 PM
sadly, I don't think so but I am hoping

I just can't say yes truthfully when we had the chance and blew it on our own...eff leaving it up to scenarios

OBF1
12-29-2009, 02:25 PM
Baltimore and the Jets make it. Oakland still does really suck and The jets play another team that will roll over and quit.

No soup for the Broncos

Kid A
12-29-2009, 02:26 PM
Comes down to Cincy playing their starters. If they do, I would favor them (though not by a whole lot) to beat the Jets. I like the odds of either a Houston win (like always, red-hot at the end of the year) over a potentially resting NE team, or wildly inconsistent Pitt to fall at Miami. And, of course, Balt is a mediocre team in their own right, and Oakland has pulled off several shockers this year already, so never know with them.

So I guess I would put us at 40% chance in my mind right now.

55CrushEm
12-29-2009, 02:36 PM
Yeah....I know all the scenarios have been laid out.....but the way I like to simplify it is this.....

We need the following to happen.....

1) Miami win OR Houson win (don't need both)
AND
2) Baltimore loss OR NY Jets loss

I just don't see BOTH Jets and Ravens losing.....in fact, my head tells me Baltimore and NY Jets are both winning and getting in....and it's over for us. Oh well, we did it to ourselves.....

DenverBroncosJM
12-29-2009, 02:37 PM
Im thinking Pitt loses and Cincy Wins...I think Houston can beat NE also.

I picked these same exact games on my Pick'em league and im in second by one point so I really do think this is how it goes down!

55CrushEm
12-29-2009, 02:40 PM
Im thinking Pitt loses and Cincy Wins...I think Houston can beat NE also.

I picked these same exact games on my Pick'em league and im in second by one point so I really do think this is how it goes down!

Well if Pitt loses and Cincy wins......we are in. I just don't see Cincy winning....they will tank it for the Jets....just like Indy did.

no-pseudo-fan
12-29-2009, 02:41 PM
The problem that Cincinnati has is that if they role over they might have to play the same Jets team the following week. Tough to play the same team 2 weeks in row, giving a defensive mind 2 weeks to game plan you.

55CrushEm
12-29-2009, 02:44 PM
The problem that Cincinnati has is that if they role over they might have to play the same Jets team the following week. Tough to play the same team 2 weeks in row, giving a defensive mind 2 weeks to game plan you.

I disagree.....if Cincy believes they'll be playing the Jets the following week (and yes, Cincy will know all the scenarios by the time they play b/c they play the night game), then to me that GIVE THEM REASON to tank it....and not "show their hand" to the Jets. Then face them again in Cincy and pour it on. The Jets offense sucks, and Cincy's d is pretty good.

Old Dude
12-29-2009, 02:45 PM
I don't think so.

We basically need 2 out of 4 other games to go our way, and in all 4 cases those would be upsets. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 upset - - maybe Miami over Pittsburgh, for example - - but getting two of those is probably asking too much.

DBroncos4life
12-29-2009, 02:45 PM
I really don't see Al Davis doing us any favors. So I don't see any help from the Raiders. It comes down to what the Bengals want to do. They can play for the number three seed or they can let the Jets walk into the playoffs. Who would you rather face the 30th passing game and Sanchez's 20 INT's or us in the playoffs? The Jets are number one in D (both yards and points) so maybe the Bengals would rather face us.

oubronco
12-29-2009, 02:48 PM
I don't believe so we need too much to happen for us

But I'm hopeful

Broncoman13
12-29-2009, 02:50 PM
Very hard for East Coast Teams to travel to the West Coast. I think the Raiders will give the Ravens a tougher fight than most expect. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Faid laid down for them to screw us.

NE at Houston, is NE playing their starters? Too bad Cincy is going to lay down for the Jets. I'd have some hope for a strong runnign game performance from the Bungles, but the Jets stop the run well... I think the Jets will win this one.

DBroncos4life
12-29-2009, 02:51 PM
If we don't I wonder which let down will be viewed as worse from Broncos fans last year or this year.

55CrushEm
12-29-2009, 02:53 PM
If we don't I wonder which let down will be viewed as worse from Broncos fans last year or this year.

Last year, of course. Expectation for this year were very low.

BigPlayShay
12-29-2009, 02:57 PM
If we don't I wonder which let down will be viewed as worse from Broncos fans last year or this year.

I think most fans will say this years collapse is worse for a couple reasons:

1) the 6-0 start
2) it is the freshest in their minds

For me though, I would say last years collapse is mush worse based on who the Head Coach was of that team and the struggles they had for the past decade getting to and staying in the playoffs. This year is more understandable for me being that it is a 1st time Head Coach, a new Offensive System with a QB in the system for the first time, and a new Defensive scheme with 8 new starters.

Broncomutt
12-29-2009, 03:02 PM
I think most fans will say this years collapse is worse for a couple reasons:

1) the 6-0 start
2) it is the freshest in their minds



I would add that this collapse occurred with a relatively healthy team. This to me says the team played at a high level to start the season (6-0), then just stopped (2-9). They weren't robbed of talent by injury, they just simply stopped performing.

bombay
12-29-2009, 03:08 PM
Yes.

Go Raiders!

8')

Ratboy
12-29-2009, 04:06 PM
As long as we win against Kansas City, we'll be in.

Get ready for the playoffs!!

Ratboy
12-29-2009, 04:08 PM
I think most fans will say this years collapse is worse for a couple reasons:

1) the 6-0 start
2) it is the freshest in their minds

For me though, I would say last years collapse is mush worse based on who the Head Coach was of that team and the struggles they had for the past decade getting to and staying in the playoffs. This year is more understandable for me being that it is a 1st time Head Coach, a new Offensive System with a QB in the system for the first time, and a new Defensive scheme with 8 new starters.

I'm with you.

I am disappointed in the collapse, but I figured we would have won 3-5 games over the entire season.

There is a large chance we sneak into the playoffs.. I am not complaining.

The playoffs are a different game, Denver may be able to upset a few good teams and find itself in the AFC Championship.

Ambiguous
12-29-2009, 05:12 PM
As long as we win against Kansas City, we'll be in.

Get ready for the playoffs!!

If only it were that simple :(

tsiguy96
12-29-2009, 05:28 PM
i wouldnt argue with a 30-40% chance of making it. we have a lot of scenarios that get us in and some favorable matchups based on teams who are playing and some having secured palyoffs. but the odds say no, we dont make it.

Kaylore
12-29-2009, 07:26 PM
I think we beat the Chiefs and the NFL ensures the Jets make it in instead of us. Big Market Team > Small market team.

55CrushEm
12-29-2009, 08:38 PM
As long as we win against Kansas City, we'll be in.

Get ready for the playoffs!!

If only it were that simple..........

DivineLegion
12-29-2009, 09:07 PM
Ochocinco is talking smack to Derrell Revis so maybe there is hope Cincy will play for third. The Bengals have backed there way in at this point, they need to find their groove or they will be looking at a first round exit. If they get matched up with the Steelers or Ravens they are out, the Jets are garbage so this should be a game they play to win.

Ambiguous
12-29-2009, 09:18 PM
Ochocinco is talking smack to Derrell Revis so maybe there is hope Cincy will play for third. The Bengals have backed there way in at this point, they need to find their groove or they will be looking at a first round exit. If they get matched up with the Steelers or Ravens they are out, the Jets are garbage so this should be a game they play to win.

That's the thing... winning opens the Steelers chances for them. Most of the fans will actually be pissed if they win this.

I think they will probably play the starters for half the game. God I really hate the Colts for ****ing the AFC up this year.

I mean really we are really about as good as the Jets in the playoffs this year, but I was really just hoping for our season not to end this sunday.

misturanderson
12-29-2009, 09:22 PM
I think we beat the Chiefs and the NFL ensures the Jets make it in instead of us. Big Market Team > Small market team.

Wouldn't suprise me. The baltimore game last week was a good example of this, in addition to our game.

yhova
12-29-2009, 09:47 PM
We beat the Chiefs, but the steelers and ravens win too. So, does it come down to Houston on MnF?
Cincy/Jets Sunday night. If we win our game we won't be mathematically eliminated until the Bengals roll over and die on Sunday night, I believe.

Arkie
12-29-2009, 10:05 PM
Sunday Night is the perfect time to Roar!

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wOVPpz6aYZI&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wOVPpz6aYZI&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Rumble in the Jungle!

Play2win
12-29-2009, 11:11 PM
I think most fans will say this years collapse is worse for a couple reasons:

1) the 6-0 start
2) it is the freshest in their minds

For me though, I would say last years collapse is mush worse based on who the Head Coach was of that team and the struggles they had for the past decade getting to and staying in the playoffs. This year is more understandable for me being that it is a 1st time Head Coach, a new Offensive System with a QB in the system for the first time, and a new Defensive scheme with 8 new starters.

In 2006, we were 5-1 and 7-2. Was that a monumental collapse? Was this year's supposed "collapse" worse than 2006? really?

Both years we were 7-4 after week 12.

just sayin' :)

TexanBob
12-29-2009, 11:46 PM
Doesn't anyone think Cincy might want the Broncos to succeed just so they can prove that their loss to Denver in Week 1 was a fluke?

tsiguy96
12-30-2009, 12:42 AM
Doesn't anyone think Cincy might want the Broncos to succeed just so they can prove that their loss to Denver in Week 1 was a fluke?

i think all cincy cares about is making and winning a playoff game. i doubt they are out to get revenge against us from a week 1 game.

bpc
12-30-2009, 12:45 AM
Our only hope is that this Bengals/Jets game resembles our Broncos/Chargers game to finish the 05' season.

Everybody expected us to rest our players going into the game against SD and we threw the sink at them. SD probably thought they would easily beat a resting team. We blitzed more than I recall that season, which is saying a lot... we blitzed the **** out of teams that year. We also ran the ball right up there ass. Brees got his shoulder destroyed and we beat SD down at their place 23-7. I can only hope that Cincy comes out motivated to do the same.

As for the prediction, I think we're screwed. When has anything gone our way over the past four years in terms of the playoffs? We've got screwed at every turn, with every break.... not that we've helped ourselves in the process.

El Minion
12-31-2009, 06:21 PM
From this chart, I counted 64 possible outcomes with 26 favoring DEN, so from a simple math odds standpoint that is 40% chance DEN goes in out of 7 teams still viable for the 2 spots, a 28% for all teams if all things where equal. Assuming my math is right. Only BAL and NYJ have better odds at 50%.

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8862/afcplayoffs.png

Bronx33
12-31-2009, 07:43 PM
I love filet mignon.

~Crash~
12-31-2009, 10:37 PM
**** no we do not make the playoffs the reffs and the NFL will take care of that...

Gort
01-01-2010, 04:45 AM
From this chart, I counted 64 possible outcomes with 26 favoring DEN, so from a simple math odds standpoint that is 40% chance DEN goes in out of 7 teams still viable for the 2 spots, a 28% for all teams if all things where equal. Assuming my math is right. Only BAL and NYJ have better odds at 50%.

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/8862/afcplayoffs.png

probability works fine when you're rolling dice.

it does not help you predict the outcome of football games.

if Indy played Detroit at home, do you really think Detroit has a 50%-50% chance of beating them, since there are only 2 possible outcomes? of course not. that's why treating the outcome of a football game as a simple probability exercise doesn't work.

El Minion
01-01-2010, 03:26 PM
probability works fine when you're rolling dice.

it does not help you predict the outcome of football games.

if Indy played Detroit at home, do you really think Detroit has a 50%-50% chance of beating them, since there are only 2 possible outcomes? of course not. that's why treating the outcome of a football game as a simple probability exercise doesn't work.

No shít sherlock, that's why I said "from a simple math odds standpoint" and "if all things where equal". Everyone has been clamoring for the what ifs and what has to happen, I just posted a graphical representation of all possible outcomes.

Now for the probabilities of each team making it see PlayoffSatus.com (http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html)

AFC Playoff Standings

Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
Team DivisionW L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Colts South 14 1 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
ChargersWest 12 3 0 X 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
PatriotsEast 10 5 0 X X 51% 49% ^ ^ ^
Bengals North 10 5 0 X X 49% 51% ^ ^ ^
Ravens North 8 7 0 X X X X 32% 30% 38%
Broncos West 8 7 0 X X X X 13% 38% 49%

Jets East 8 7 0 X X X X 48% < 1% 52%
SteelersNorth 8 7 0 X X X X 5% 14% 81%
Texans South 8 7 0 X X X X 1% 11% 87%
Jaguars South 7 8 0 X X X X < 1% 5% 95%
DolphinsEast 7 8 0 X X X X < 1% 2% 98%
Titans South 7 8 0 X X X X X X 100%
Bills East 5 10 0 X X X X X X 100%
Raiders West 5 10 0 X X X X X X 100%
Browns North 4 11 0 X X X X X X 100%
Chiefs West 3 12 0 X X X X X X 100%

Mr
01-01-2010, 04:41 PM
Too many contenders are going to lay down & rest starters.
No chance.