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View Full Version : According to the Denver Post (playoff scenarios)...


DomCasual
12-27-2009, 06:48 PM
Is this right? It simplifies it more than anything else I've seen.

For the Broncos to capture an AFC wild-card spot, there are two scenarios more likely than others:

* The Broncos beat Kansas City, which would improve their record to 9-7, and either 8-7 Baltimore or 8-7 Pittsburgh loses. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Broncos. Baltimore plays at 5-10 Oakland next Sunday and Pittsburgh plays at 7-8 Miami.

* The Broncos beat Kansas City and either the Houston Texans beat New England, or the New York Jets defeat the Cincinnati Bengals. In this scenario, even if Pittsburgh and Baltimore win their games, the Broncos would get in because the head-to-head tiebreaker falls away.

* It's slightly possible for the Broncos to lose to Kansas City and still make the playoffs with an 8-8 record, but they would need multiple other games to

Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_14077314#ixzz0awaAARNu

MplsBronco
12-27-2009, 06:52 PM
That first scenario is not true, i don't think.

ColoradoBuff
12-27-2009, 06:59 PM
clear as mud right?

ZONA
12-27-2009, 07:03 PM
somebody has to have the right answer. Might have to watch NFL Network tonight to see if they can figure it out.

Man-Goblin
12-27-2009, 07:04 PM
The Jets are in if they win. Congrats to them for getting the Colts at the right time (by the way, I hope the Colts lay over and die come playoff time like the pussies they are).

Beyond that, I would assume that both the Steelers and Ravens have the edge on the Broncos considering they both beat them head to head.

MagicHef
12-27-2009, 07:07 PM
The Jets are in if they win. Congrats to them for getting the Colts at the right time (by the way, I hope the Colts lay over and die come playoff time like the pussies they are).

Beyond that, I would assume that both the Steelers and Ravens have the edge on the Broncos considering they both beat them head to head.

If we end up tied with NYJ, BAL, and PIT, head to head doesn't matter since we haven't played NYJ.

bloodsunday
12-27-2009, 07:14 PM
If we end up tied with NYJ, BAL, and PIT, head to head doesn't matter since we haven't played NYJ.

Exactly, that's the key. We need more than 3 teams to be tied (Den, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh). Then it goes to alternate tie breaking procedures. If we wind up with Baltimore and Pittsburgh as the ONLY 9 - 7 teams, we are hosed.

briane
12-27-2009, 07:25 PM
heres what foxsports is saying right now. they have the jets and broncos in right now too...

FOR THE FIVE TEAMS TIED AT 8-7:


RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
BRONCOS, JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
BRONCOS win tiebreaker over JETS and RAVENS (strength of victory). — BRONCOS earn No. 5 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
JETS win tiebreaker over RAVENS (strength of victory). — JETS earn No. 6 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record). — RAVENS earn No. 7 spot.
TEXANS win tiebreaker over STEELERS (record vs. common opponents). — TEXANS earn No. 8 spot.

Kid A
12-27-2009, 07:30 PM
Is this right? It simplifies it more than anything else I've seen.

For the Broncos to capture an AFC wild-card spot, there are two scenarios more likely than others:

* The Broncos beat Kansas City, which would improve their record to 9-7, and either 8-7 Baltimore or 8-7 Pittsburgh loses. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Broncos. Baltimore plays at 5-10 Oakland next Sunday and Pittsburgh plays at 7-8 Miami.

* The Broncos beat Kansas City and either the Houston Texans beat New England, or the New York Jets defeat the Cincinnati Bengals. In this scenario, even if Pittsburgh and Baltimore win their games, the Broncos would get in because the head-to-head tiebreaker falls away.

* It's slightly possible for the Broncos to lose to Kansas City and still make the playoffs with an 8-8 record, but they would need multiple other games to

Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/premium/broncos/ci_14077314#ixzz0awaAARNu

By everything I have read, yes it is correct. The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

UberBroncoMan
12-27-2009, 07:38 PM
By everything I have read, yes it is correct. The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

A sure lot has to happen for us to miss out with a win then... oh boy... I hate this stuff lol.

Hopefully NE is resting Brady vs the Texans.

SportinOne
12-27-2009, 07:42 PM
Easiest Way: We win, Jets lose, Texans win.
Another Way: We win, Jets win, Texans win, Baltimore Loses.
Another Way: We win, Jets lose, Texans lose, and either Baltimore AND/OR Pitt loses.

After that it gets a bit difficult.

Ratboy
12-27-2009, 07:45 PM
I think the biggest thing is being overlooked.

WE NEED TO WIN!

briane
12-27-2009, 07:45 PM
I think the bengals and pats might rest some starters since they have already solidified their spots. If one of them takes a loss and we beat the queefs, we are in.... lets whoop the queefs!!!

yhova
12-27-2009, 07:48 PM
I think the bengals and pats might rest some starters since they have already solidified their spots. If one of them takes a loss and we beat the queefs, we are in.... lets whoop the queefs!!!Cincy is definitely not playing anyone more then a half this next week, and New England certainly is not going to have Brady out there playing either.

jbiel
12-27-2009, 07:51 PM
By everything I have read, yes it is correct. The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

If we win and this happens, we would be in. Balt, Den, and Pit would all be 9-7 and the division tiebreaker would be applied first. If two teams tie within the division, head to head does not matter as this tiebreaker would be applied first. In your scenario above, Balt would beat out Pitt and we would also be in.

briane
12-27-2009, 07:54 PM
If we win and this happens, we would be in. Balt, Den, and Pit would all be 9-7 and the division tiebreaker would be applied first. If two teams tie within the division, head to head does not matter as this tiebreaker would be applied first. In your scenario above, Balt would beat out Pitt and we would also be in.

head to head WOULD apply because we have all played each other. we need a team that we havent played to be tied at 9-7 (hou or jets) to throw out the head to head.

ScottXray
12-27-2009, 07:56 PM
I think the bengals and pats might rest some starters since they have already solidified their spots. If one of them takes a loss and we beat the queefs, we are in.... lets whoop the queefs!!!

Hmm. Hopefully neither of them want the 3 seed (have to play SD in the divisional round) and they both try to lose (like Indy giving the jets a win today) therefore Houston and the Jets win and we win...leaving the tie breakers as they are.

Txdonk
12-27-2009, 07:57 PM
We really need Houston to win to muddy things up, for example:

-If only Den, Bal and Jets finish 9-7, there will be no H2H tie-break, everyone's 7-5 in the conference, but Jets will be 4-1 in common games (the teams all 3 played are NE, Cin, INDY and Oak), we'll be 3-2, Bal 1-4). Jets gets #5 and then Bal gets #6 over Den due to H2H between 2 teams.

Add in Hou and I don't believe all 4 teams have played enough common games, then it goes down to strength of victory and we'll tops there; we get #5 seed.

-If only Den, Bal and Pitt win, we all have read enough of this scenerio, I won't repeat it.

Add in Hou, suddenly there is enough common foes that Bal, Hou and Den has faced (IND, Cin, Oak), Bal is eliminated first due to the worst record there; then it's down to Den vs. Hou and we own the conf record tie-break to grab #5.

I see no harm, only benefit, if Houston wins next week.

Kid A
12-27-2009, 08:03 PM
Seeing lots of sources saying Jets and Ravens control their destinies. Which would conflict with this a little. Plus others are saying NFL has it wrong since division champs have been clinched, so the tiebreakers work different than they have it right now?

Ugh my head. Not going to get my hopes up until this is cleared up.

Hercules Rockefeller
12-27-2009, 08:04 PM
Cincy is definitely not playing anyone more then a half this next week, and New England certainly is not going to have Brady out there playing either.

Both are 10-5, depends on how much either one of them wants the #3 seed.

Both their games and the Pit-Miami game are early games, so the Broncos for the most part should know what their chances are before they kick off.

jbiel
12-27-2009, 08:09 PM
head to head WOULD apply because we have all played each other. we need a team that we havent played to be tied at 9-7 (hou or jets) to throw out the head to head.

this is what i am pulling from the tie breaker rules. it states before using head to head sweep, division tiebreaker is applied first. this is from espn. so to me if pitt, balt, and den all tied at 9-7, balt and den would make it...

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2, and repeated a third time, if necessary, to identify the third Wild Card. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

Kid A
12-27-2009, 08:12 PM
Both are 10-5, depends on how much either one of them wants the #3 seed.

Both their games and the Pit-Miami game are early games, so the Broncos for the most part should know what their chances are before they kick off.

IMO it's worth playing for the #3 over the #4. A couple upsets (albeit big ones) and you have home field in the AFC championship. I guess you weigh injury risk vs. potential payoff down the line and keeping a rhythm.

Rulon Velvet Jones
12-27-2009, 08:15 PM
Jets Bengals flexed to Sunday night

Boogerboots
12-27-2009, 08:18 PM
I was listening to Espin and Clayton stated that both the Ravens and Jets control their own destinies. We would have to rely on Cincy playing most of their starters againts the Jets to have a chance of the Bungles beating them or rely on the Raiders pulling another multi-QB miracle against the Ravens.

I'm sure the Chorfs will be getting ready to play their super bowl next week so I'm concerned for that first and all the other scenarios are secondary until we win.

55CrushEm
12-27-2009, 08:19 PM
We need 2 of the following 3 teams to lose next week.....I don't think it matters which 2.....but it has to be 2 of these 3....

Pitt
Balt
NY Jets

I don't see the Jets losing at home vs. a Cincy team that really has nothing to play for. And I don't see Balt losing to Oakland. Pitt could lose @ Miami.....but again, to have 2 of these 3 teams lose seems very unlikely.

The MVPlaya
12-27-2009, 08:20 PM
Cincy and Pats should be playing their starters...they're both fighting for the 3rd seed since they have the same record.

Denver724
12-27-2009, 08:23 PM
We need 2 of the following 3 teams to lose next week.....I don't think it matters which 2.....but it has to be 2 of these 3....

Pitt
Balt
NY Jets

I don't see the Jets losing at home vs. a Cincy team that really has nothing to play for. And I don't see Balt losing to Oakland. Pitt could lose @ Miami.....but again, to have 2 of these 3 teams lose seems very unlikely.

Agreed. What will probably happen is 2 of the 3 will lose, but we will lose as well. This seems to be how this season is shaping up.

Conklin
12-27-2009, 08:25 PM
If we win and this happens, we would be in. Balt, Den, and Pit would all be 9-7 and the division tiebreaker would be applied first. If two teams tie within the division, head to head does not matter as this tiebreaker would be applied first. In your scenario above, Balt would beat out Pitt and we would also be in.

we'd be out still, after they place balt @ #5 seed, the tiebreaker procedures start all over and thus, pitt's head to head vs us would put them in

Kid A
12-27-2009, 08:28 PM
found this on a Ravens board. Not sure this looks as good as we think:

Per Hensley blog, Aaron Wilson twitter, and Chris Pika WNST twitter:

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello confirms win and in for NYJ/Ravens. Elias Sports Bureau also confirmed this.

It may have something to do with Balt and NYJ playing opponents we played (Oak and Cin), thus getting an edge in common opponents.

?

Gort
12-27-2009, 08:28 PM
We need 2 of the following 3 teams to lose next week.....I don't think it matters which 2.....but it has to be 2 of these 3....

Pitt
Balt
NY Jets

I don't see the Jets losing at home vs. a Cincy team that really has nothing to play for. And I don't see Balt losing to Oakland. Pitt could lose @ Miami.....but again, to have 2 of these 3 teams lose seems very unlikely.

yep. that's the most succinct summary i've seen so far. and it illustrates the odd illusion we are seeing right now after 15 games with DEN seeded #5. basically, the Broncos have sh*t their pants the past 2 weeks and now do not control their own destiny. they need to win and they need some improbable help to make the playoffs, even though they would get the #5 seed if the season ended today.

Broncoman13
12-27-2009, 08:31 PM
By everything I have read, yes it is correct. The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

Actually b/c the first tie breaker is div record it would eliminate the Steelers up front, if PhillyBroncoNut is correct.

Kid A
12-27-2009, 08:33 PM
We need 2 of the following 3 teams to lose next week.....I don't think it matters which 2.....but it has to be 2 of these 3....

Pitt
Balt
NY Jets

I don't see the Jets losing at home vs. a Cincy team that really has nothing to play for. And I don't see Balt losing to Oakland. Pitt could lose @ Miami.....but again, to have 2 of these 3 teams lose seems very unlikely.

This would seem to line up with what I've heard NFL officials have said. So looking like long odds for our Broncos. Oh well. Still will be a compelling day of football.