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RunYouOver26
12-21-2009, 03:18 PM
Long, Long post...don't expect most to read it all, look through and find what interests you. Enjoy.

Let’s be clear on a few things…that loss really, really hurt us, however, we got VERY lucky in the fact that almost all other contending teams lost last week. We’re certainly still alive, but in a much worse position that we could’ve been. Had we beaten Oakland, we would’ve all but clinched (probably 1 loss away by 1 or 2 teams). But that’s in the past, and Weeks 16 and 17 are upcoming, so here’s EVERYTHING. If you want to know about a scenario not seen here, just let me know and I’ll see what I can do.


If the season ended TODAY (After Week 15):
AFC:
1. Indy (14-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (11-3, clinched AFC West)
3. New England (9-5, first in the AFC East)
4. Cincinnati (9-5, first in the AFC North)
5. Baltimore (8-6, higher seeded WC team)
6. Denver (8-6, lower seeded WC team).

In the hunt (yikes):
7.Jacksonville(7-7)
8. Miami (7-7)
9. NYJ (7-7)
10.Pittsburgh (7-7)
11. Tennessee (7-7)
12. Houston (7-7)

Explanations:

--I’ve never seen a more messy playoff picture this late in the season in my life
--San Diego clinches a first round bye with a win or New England loss
--Strength of victory puts New England over Cincy
--Baltimore beat us head-to-head, so they are the 5 seed, we’re the 6 seed.
--2 wins and we’re in


NFC:
1. New Orleans (13-1)
2. Minnesota (11-3)
3. Philly (10-4)
4. Arizona (9-5)
5. Green Bay (9-5)
6. Dallas (9-5)

In the hunt:
7. New York (7-6)

Post season match ups:
--Indy, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--DEN @ NE, BAL @ CIN, DAL @ PHI, GB @ ARI
--If we won, we would play Indianapolis in round two…something I actually would not mind, in fact, I’d prefer it over SD.

Remaining Schedules:
DEN: @ PHI, vs. KC
BAL: @ PIT, @OAK
JAC: @ NE, @CLE
MIA: vs HOU, vs PIT
NYJ: @ IND, vs CIN
PIT: vs BAL, @MIA
TEN: vs SD, @ SEA
HOU: @MIA, vs NE


--Philly will be tough, but I don’t think this team will fall to the Chiefs at home after what just happened

--Baltimore and Pittsburgh play each other, Miami and Pittsburgh play each other, Houston and Miami play each other, so at LEAST 2 of those teams will finish 8-8

--Looking at this: The Jets have the hardest schedule, as the Colts will still try to be undefeated in Week 16 and the Bengals are presumably playing for the third seed, unless they decide they’d rather be the fourth, but I doubt that will be the case since they can’t predict who will be the fifth

--After the Jets, the Steelers have the hardest path, followed by Houston, Miami, Tennessee

--The Jaguars and Broncos have the second and third easiest in my opinion, and the Ravens have the “easiest” although they do play the Raiders. The Raiders could, however, determine they hate us just enough to not try to beat Baltimore and give them a spot…unlikely, but definitely possible

--The Philly game was pushed back to 4:15, which will help us since it’s on the road. Those early east coast games are always more difficult for west coast teams, so we lucked out there. Still gonna be one hell of a challenging game though, the Eagles are playing very, very well right now.

--The way I see it: Baltimore 9-7, Pittsburgh 9-7, Denver 9-7, Jacksonville 8-8, Miami 8-8, Tennessee 8-8, Jets 7-9, Houston 7-9

--Now to the what-ifs….these are organized by Baltimore. All of Baltimore winning is first, then Baltimore splitting, then Baltimore losing out.
What if scenarios:

If Denver wins out and BAL wins out:

We will be the 6th seed, as Baltimore beat us head to head

If Denver wins out and BAL loses one game:

We will be the fifth seed, the sixth would depend on everything else…regardless, if we win out, we are in the playoffs


If Denver loses to PHI and beats KC
--Houston and Tennessee are eliminated because of their conference record
AND BAL wins out, Jax splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT splits

--Alright, this is predictable scenario #1. Baltimore winning out regardless of anything else happening assures them the #5 seed. Here, all of the other contenders would split and finish 8-8, while we would be 9-7. RESULT: SIXTH SEED

AND BAL wins out, JAX wins out, MIA wins out, NYJ wins out,

Much less predictable here, but I’m following the order, so Baltimore is guaranteed the #5 seed at 10-6, and the tiebreaker would be between us, Jax and Mia after the Jets are eliminated through divisional tiebreaker (2-4 record to MIA’s 4-2). No sweeps apply here, but conference record goes to Jacksonville at 8-4 and they’d be the #6 seed.

AND BAL wins outs, MIA wins OUT, NYJ Win out

Eliminated Jacksonville who would finish at 8-8…It comes down to Miami and us, as BAL is the #5 seed. Jets are eliminated through division tiebreaker, and so between Denver and Miami: I elaborated on this in a later scenario, since I did this out of order, but common opponents are tied, and strength of victory is VERY close…too close to call now, it’ll depend on the teams we beat finish up. If it ended right now though, we would win…barely.

Result = Too close to call, as of now, the #6 seed

AND Bal wins out, NYJ win out:
Eliminated all non 9-7 teams which just leaves us and the Jets…and common opponents, which I broke down in a later scenario, favor the Jets, so they would get the #6 seed.

AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT wins out

--This one isn’t as fun for us, although I am not 100% sure on the end ruling. Of the remaining contenders Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are 8-8, while Baltimore, Pittsburgh and us are all 9-7. There’s two ways to interpret the tie breaker, and I don’t work for the NFL and can’t give you the correct interpretation. It says in the tiebreaking procedures to “apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.”.

Now, does this mean you eliminate the second divisional player only for the first seed and they’re eligible for the second, or does it mean you eliminate the second divisional team and it comes down to the remaining teams for both spots.
If it’s the first, Baltimore and PIT get the two spots. If it’s the second, Baltimore is the five seed and we are the sixth seed. I think it's the first though, so don't get your hopes up.


AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA wins out, NYJ splits, PIT splits

--Eliminate Jacksonville, the Jets and Pittsburgh

This one is pretty fun actually…Baltimore’s head to head tiebreaker with us is gone in this scenario, because they didn’t also beat Miami. We would all be 7-5 in conference, which is the next step. So the next step is common games…which teams did all three teams play (there must be 4)? Pittsburgh, New England, Indy and San Diego, so yes, this step will work. Assuming the Baltimore split means that they lost to Pittsburgh and beat Oakland…the records are as follows. Denver 2-3, Baltimore 2-3 and Miami 2-3. Wow! Now it all comes down to strength of victory…pretty crazy. Here’s how that plays out assuming the Chiefs lose out, Cleveland loses out, Oakland splits and Houston loses out…which are all most likely to happen. All others teams thrown in are going to be judged by their current record, hopefully there’s enough of a difference that it won’t have to go into further detail. Records are accurate within 2 games…lots of numbers…
Denver’s is 60-72, Baltimore’s is 48-88, Miami’s is 57-75….if the Giants win tonight ours would be 61-72.

So while this may be a game or two off, it DOES look like based off this scenario, we would be the #5 seed. Don’t fret though, even if Miami beat us out, our SOV is still better than Baltimore, and it does not revert back to the beginning, this step would be the deciding factor. So Baltimore would miss the playoffs in this situation. We want this. Baltimore, Denver and Miami tied….RESULT = PLAYOFFS, but close.

Yes, these go on and on….
AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami and the Jets split

Eliminate the Jets and Dolphins at 8-8….it goes down to a 4 way tiebreaker, and PIT is eliminated first because of the divisional record. Whether this means for the #5 and #6 seeds or just the #5, I’m not sure. But for the #5 seed it’d be between Baltimore, Jacksonville and us. In this scenario, Jacksonville has the better conference record at 8-4, and only because Baltimore and Denver would be TIED here, it reverts back to step 1 (with Pittsburgh? I don’t know…to be honest, I don’t think so, I think they’d be eliminated). Since we were tied and it reverts back to step 1…Baltimore beat us head to head, so they’d be the #6 seed.

RESULT= NO PLAYOFFS

AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out JAX wins out, MIAMI wins out, Jets Win out

Why not get a little complicated, right? A 6 way tie at 9-7 is not going to be fun for me to figure out, but let’s go for it. First things first, goodbye Pittsburgh because they lose the divisional race to Baltimore (because of Division record, in case anyone was curious). Secondly, goodbye NYJ as they lose the division race to Miami. So that takes care of 1/3 of those teams. Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Miami are left. Jacksonville would have the best conference record and get the 5 seed, and then it comes down to Denver Baltimore and Miami again…based off my projections, Baltimore is clearly out and it comes down to us vs. Miami. It really is too close to call though, as of right now, we’d have the edge, but all that means is ROOT FOR ALL THE TEAMS THAT WE BEAT.

Result = TOO SOON TO TELL, but as of now, 6th seed.

AND BAL SPLITS, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out
Sticking with the complicated stuff, rule Miami out here and Keep 5 teams in at 9-7. Eliminate the Steelers because of the division, and give Jacksonville #5 because of the conference record. Comes down to common games first between us three teams…there are enough common games: Cincy, Indy, Oakland and New England.
Denver was 3-2 in these games, while Baltimore was 1-5 and the Jets, unfortunately, were 4-1. They would get the 6th spot…I know, the Jets making it over us would be absolutely terrible, but they’d have to earn it beating two great teams in 2 weeks.

Result = NO PLAYOFFS

That covers the Baltimore splitting scenarios….

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami wins out, Jets win out

Baltimore will be eliminated in all these scenarios, except for the ones where all of these guys lose out, except PIT splits, so we won’t worry about that yet. But in this scenario Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are all tied with us at 9-7. Eliminate the Jets through the divisional tiebreaker. Then wish the Steelers a good night with their conference record, While Jacksonville gets the #5 spot through conference record. Miami and Denver would again duke it out through SOV, which is anyone’s game.

Result= Too soon to tell

And BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out

Here it comes down to common opponents between us and the Jets, as Jacksonville gets the #5 seed, and the Jets have us beat through common opponents, so they would get the #6 seed

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami and the Jets split

Jacksonville is the #5, we’re the #6 as Pitt is eliminated through conference record.

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, all the rest split:

We would be #6, Pit #5 because of our head to head loss.

AND BAL loses out, all of them split:

We’re the #5 seed, who cares after that…

NOTE:

--The Texans and Titans can both make the playoffs, however, neither team would make it over us if we were 9-7 in any scenario, so I did not include them in this.

--Also, I’m not even going to get into if we finish 8-8, because in that case, we’d need a lot to happen. DEFINITELY possible, but we’d need a lot to happen.

--One last thing…if we only win 1 of these last 2 games, it is WAY more important that it’s the KC game. Forget strength of victory, our conference record would eliminate us from most tiebreakers first…winning in Philly only helps if we can win out, or if enough teams finish 8-8 that we squeak in, which isn’t likely. Not to say we shouldn’t root for us to beat Philly…I’m very hopeful we beat KC, so a win in Philly could clinch our spot, practically.

--Next week is obviously the last week of this, let’s hope the scenarios are short and sweet with us at 9-7 and enough of the guys right behind us losing.

WHO TO ROOT FOR:

We really have to root hard all across the board this week…
--We’re rooting for the following: San Diego (Yes, San Diego) on Christmas, Oakland (for SOV purposes), Houston (over Miami), Baltimore (over Pittsburgh), the Giants over Carolina (for SOV), New England over Jax, New Orleans over tampa (SOV), DENVER (obviously), INDY over the Jets.

In order of importance:

1)  DENVER: Clearly a big game, we win this we could win out and secure our spot in the playoffs as the #5 or 6 seed
2) New England: Helps our SOV out, but also ruins Jacksonville’s chances, and JAX is our biggest threat other than Baltimore because of the Head to Head
3) Baltimore: Get Pittsburgh out of this mess
4) INDY over the Jets: The Jets can beat us in tiebreakers if they finish ahead of the Dolphins, so it is important they lsoe
5) Houston: Though Houston is technically still a threat, they are far less a threat than Miami.
6) Giants: This one helps us only for SOV
7) Oakland: See above
8) San Diego: Beats Tennessee which helps us, although only if we lose out, so it shouldn’t matter that much since losing out screws us over anyway. And they’re still San Diego. But I sure as hell don’t want to play them in the first round, so a win here gives them the bye for sure.
9) New Orleans: Just for the SOV, no big deal here. But if you’re going to root for someone, root for them.

So there you have it, 9 of these games have a big impact on us. Root hard all week!



In terms of our current draft position: The Bears currently have what would be the 9th pick in the draft, and depending on how things go, that can move all the way up to most likely the highest being 6th, and the lowest being around 16th or so. If it stays where it is though and we get a top 10 draft pick, then DAMN, that worked out well.

And that’s all for this week…hopefully we pulled off the upset next week and are in good shape for week 17, but if not…these scenarios already tell you what you need to know. :)

Mr.Meanie
12-21-2009, 03:46 PM
Wow nice work. Rep

oubronco
12-21-2009, 03:51 PM
Damn now thats a post

Tombstone RJ
12-21-2009, 04:02 PM
Long, Long post...don't expect most to read it all, look through and find what interests you. Enjoy.

Let’s be clear on a few things…that loss really, really hurt us, however, we got VERY lucky in the fact that almost all other contending teams lost last week. We’re certainly still alive, but in a much worse position that we could’ve been. Had we beaten Oakland, we would’ve all but clinched (probably 1 loss away by 1 or 2 teams). But that’s in the past, and Weeks 16 and 17 are upcoming, so here’s EVERYTHING. If you want to know about a scenario not seen here, just let me know and I’ll see what I can do.


If the season ended TODAY (After Week 15):
AFC:
1. Indy (14-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (11-3, clinched AFC West)
3. New England (9-5, first in the AFC East)
4. Cincinnati (9-5, first in the AFC North)
5. Baltimore (8-6, higher seeded WC team)
6. Denver (8-6, lower seeded WC team).

In the hunt (yikes):
7.Jacksonville(7-7)
8. Miami (7-7)
9. NYJ (7-7)
10.Pittsburgh (7-7)
11. Tennessee (7-7)
12. Houston (7-7)

Explanations:

--I’ve never seen a more messy playoff picture this late in the season in my life
--San Diego clinches a first round bye with a win or New England loss
--Strength of victory puts New England over Cincy
--Baltimore beat us head-to-head, so they are the 5 seed, we’re the 6 seed.
--2 wins and we’re in


NFC:
1. New Orleans (13-1)
2. Minnesota (11-3)
3. Philly (10-4)
4. Arizona (9-5)
5. Green Bay (9-5)
6. Dallas (9-5)

In the hunt:
7. New York (7-6)

Post season match ups:
--Indy, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--DEN @ NE, BAL @ CIN, DAL @ PHI, GB @ ARI
--If we won, we would play Indianapolis in round two…something I actually would not mind, in fact, I’d prefer it over SD.

Remaining Schedules:
DEN: @ PHI, vs. KC
BAL: @ PIT, @OAK
JAC: @ NE, @CLE
MIA: vs HOU, vs PIT
NYJ: @ IND, vs CIN
PIT: vs BAL, @MIA
TEN: vs SD, @ SEA
HOU: @MIA, vs NE


--Philly will be tough, but I don’t think this team will fall to the Chiefs at home after what just happened

--Baltimore and Pittsburgh play each other, Miami and Pittsburgh play each other, Houston and Miami play each other, so at LEAST 2 of those teams will finish 8-8

--Looking at this: The Jets have the hardest schedule, as the Colts will still try to be undefeated in Week 16 and the Bengals are presumably playing for the third seed, unless they decide they’d rather be the fourth, but I doubt that will be the case since they can’t predict who will be the fifth

--After the Jets, the Steelers have the hardest path, followed by Houston, Miami, Tennessee

--The Jaguars and Broncos have the second and third easiest in my opinion, and the Ravens have the “easiest” although they do play the Raiders. The Raiders could, however, determine they hate us just enough to not try to beat Baltimore and give them a spot…unlikely, but definitely possible

--The Philly game was pushed back to 4:15, which will help us since it’s on the road. Those early east coast games are always more difficult for west coast teams, so we lucked out there. Still gonna be one hell of a challenging game though, the Eagles are playing very, very well right now.

--The way I see it: Baltimore 9-7, Pittsburgh 9-7, Denver 9-7, Jacksonville 8-8, Miami 8-8, Tennessee 8-8, Jets 7-9, Houston 7-9

--Now to the what-ifs….these are organized by Baltimore. All of Baltimore winning is first, then Baltimore splitting, then Baltimore losing out.
What if scenarios:

If Denver wins out and BAL wins out:

We will be the 6th seed, as Baltimore beat us head to head

If Denver wins out and BAL loses one game:

We will be the fifth seed, the sixth would depend on everything else…regardless, if we win out, we are in the playoffs


If Denver loses to PHI and beats KC
--Houston and Tennessee are eliminated because of their conference record
AND BAL wins out, Jax splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT splits

--Alright, this is predictable scenario #1. Baltimore winning out regardless of anything else happening assures them the #5 seed. Here, all of the other contenders would split and finish 8-8, while we would be 9-7. RESULT: SIXTH SEED

AND BAL wins out, JAX wins out, MIA wins out, NYJ wins out,

Much less predictable here, but I’m following the order, so Baltimore is guaranteed the #5 seed at 10-6, and the tiebreaker would be between us, Jax and Mia after the Jets are eliminated through divisional tiebreaker (2-4 record to MIA’s 4-2). No sweeps apply here, but conference record goes to Jacksonville at 8-4 and they’d be the #6 seed.

AND BAL wins outs, MIA wins OUT, NYJ Win out

Eliminated Jacksonville who would finish at 8-8…It comes down to Miami and us, as BAL is the #5 seed. Jets are eliminated through division tiebreaker, and so between Denver and Miami: I elaborated on this in a later scenario, since I did this out of order, but common opponents are tied, and strength of victory is VERY close…too close to call now, it’ll depend on the teams we beat finish up. If it ended right now though, we would win…barely.

Result = Too close to call, as of now, the #6 seed

AND Bal wins out, NYJ win out:
Eliminated all non 9-7 teams which just leaves us and the Jets…and common opponents, which I broke down in a later scenario, favor the Jets, so they would get the #6 seed.

AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT wins out

--This one isn’t as fun for us, although I am not 100% sure on the end ruling. Of the remaining contenders Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are 8-8, while Baltimore, Pittsburgh and us are all 9-7. There’s two ways to interpret the tie breaker, and I don’t work for the NFL and can’t give you the correct interpretation. It says in the tiebreaking procedures to “apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.”.

Now, does this mean you eliminate the second divisional player only for the first seed and they’re eligible for the second, or does it mean you eliminate the second divisional team and it comes down to the remaining teams for both spots.
If it’s the first, Baltimore and PIT get the two spots. If it’s the second, Baltimore is the five seed and we are the sixth seed.


AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA wins out, NYJ splits, PIT splits

--Eliminate Jacksonville, the Jets and Pittsburgh

This one is pretty fun actually…Baltimore’s head to head tiebreaker with us is gone in this scenario, because they didn’t also beat Miami. We would all be 7-5 in conference, which is the next step. So the next step is common games…which teams did all three teams play (there must be 4)? Pittsburgh, New England, Indy and San Diego, so yes, this step will work. Assuming the Baltimore split means that they lost to Pittsburgh and beat Oakland…the records are as follows. Denver 2-3, Baltimore 2-3 and Miami 2-3. Wow! Now it all comes down to strength of victory…pretty crazy. Here’s how that plays out assuming the Chiefs lose out, Cleveland loses out, Oakland splits and Houston loses out…which are all most likely to happen. All others teams thrown in are going to be judged by their current record, hopefully there’s enough of a difference that it won’t have to go into further detail. Records are accurate within 2 games…lots of numbers…
Denver’s is 60-72, Baltimore’s is 48-88, Miami’s is 57-75….if the Giants win tonight ours would be 61-72.

So while this may be a game or two off, it DOES look like based off this scenario, we would be the #5 seed. Don’t fret though, even if Miami beat us out, our SOV is still better than Baltimore, and it does not revert back to the beginning, this step would be the deciding factor. So Baltimore would miss the playoffs in this situation. We want this. Baltimore, Denver and Miami tied….RESULT = PLAYOFFS, but close.

Yes, these go on and on….
AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami and the Jets split

Eliminate the Jets and Dolphins at 8-8….it goes down to a 4 way tiebreaker, and PIT is eliminated first because of the divisional record. Whether this means for the #5 and #6 seeds or just the #5, I’m not sure. But for the #5 seed it’d be between Baltimore, Jacksonville and us. In this scenario, Jacksonville has the better conference record at 8-4, and only because Baltimore and Denver would be TIED here, it reverts back to step 1 (with Pittsburgh? I don’t know…to be honest, I don’t think so, I think they’d be eliminated). Since we were tied and it reverts back to step 1…Baltimore beat us head to head, so they’d be the #6 seed.

RESULT= NO PLAYOFFS

AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out JAX wins out, MIAMI wins out, Jets Win out

Why not get a little complicated, right? A 6 way tie at 9-7 is not going to be fun for me to figure out, but let’s go for it. First things first, goodbye Pittsburgh because they lose the divisional race to Baltimore (because of Division record, in case anyone was curious). Secondly, goodbye NYJ as they lose the division race to Miami. So that takes care of 1/3 of those teams. Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Miami are left. Jacksonville would have the best conference record and get the 5 seed, and then it comes down to Denver Baltimore and Miami again…based off my projections, Baltimore is clearly out and it comes down to us vs. Miami. It really is too close to call though, as of right now, we’d have the edge, but all that means is ROOT FOR ALL THE TEAMS THAT WE BEAT.

Result = TOO SOON TO TELL, but as of now, 6th seed.

AND BAL SPLITS, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out
Sticking with the complicated stuff, rule Miami out here and Keep 5 teams in at 9-7. Eliminate the Steelers because of the division, and give Jacksonville #5 because of the conference record. Comes down to common games first between us three teams…there are enough common games: Cincy, Indy, Oakland and New England.
Denver was 3-2 in these games, while Baltimore was 1-5 and the Jets, unfortunately, were 4-1. They would get the 6th spot…I know, the Jets making it over us would be absolutely terrible, but they’d have to earn it beating two great teams in 2 weeks.

Result = NO PLAYOFFS

That covers the Baltimore splitting scenarios….

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami wins out, Jets win out

Baltimore will be eliminated in all these scenarios, except for the ones where all of these guys lose out, except PIT splits, so we won’t worry about that yet. But in this scenario Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are all tied with us at 9-7. Eliminate the Jets through the divisional tiebreaker. Then wish the Steelers a good night with their conference record, While Jacksonville gets the #5 spot through conference record. Miami and Denver would again duke it out through SOV, which is anyone’s game.

Result= Too soon to tell

And BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out

Here it comes down to common opponents between us and the Jets, as Jacksonville gets the #5 seed, and the Jets have us beat through common opponents, so they would get the #6 seed

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami and the Jets split

Jacksonville is the #5, we’re the #6 as Pitt is eliminated through conference record.

AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, all the rest split:

We would be #6, Pit #5 because of our head to head loss.

AND BAL loses out, all of them split:

We’re the #5 seed, who cares after that…

NOTE:

--The Texans and Titans can both make the playoffs, however, neither team would make it over us if we were 9-7 in any scenario, so I did not include them in this.

--Also, I’m not even going to get into if we finish 8-8, because in that case, we’d need a lot to happen. DEFINITELY possible, but we’d need a lot to happen.

--One last thing…if we only win 1 of these last 2 games, it is WAY more important that it’s the KC game. Forget strength of victory, our conference record would eliminate us from most tiebreakers first…winning in Philly only helps if we can win out, or if enough teams finish 8-8 that we squeak in, which isn’t likely. Not to say we shouldn’t root for us to beat Philly…I’m very hopeful we beat KC, so a win in Philly could clinch our spot, practically.

--Next week is obviously the last week of this, let’s hope the scenarios are short and sweet with us at 9-7 and enough of the guys right behind us losing.

WHO TO ROOT FOR:

We really have to root hard all across the board this week…
--We’re rooting for the following: San Diego (Yes, San Diego) on Christmas, Oakland (for SOV purposes), Houston (over Miami), Pittsburgh (over Baltimore), the Giants over Carolina (for SOV), New England over Jax, New Orleans over tampa (SOV), DENVER (obviously), INDY over the Jets.

In order of importance:

1) DENVER: Clearly a big game, we win this we could win out and secure our spot in the playoffs as the #5 or 6 seed
2) New England: Helps our SOV out, but also ruins Jacksonville’s chances, and JAX is our biggest threat other than Baltimore because of the Head to Head
3) Pittsburgh over Baltimore: If we win out, this would give us the #5, and also because a Baltimore split helps us in most situations if there are multiple teams at 9-7, because Baltimore’s SOV sucks.
4) INDY over the Jets: The Jets can beat us in tiebreakers if they finish ahead of the Dolphins, so it is important they lsoe
5) Houston: Though Houston is technically still a threat, they are far less a threat than Miami.
6) Giants: This one helps us only for SOV
7) Oakland: See above
8) San Diego: Beats Tennessee which helps us, although only if we lose out, so it shouldn’t matter that much since losing out screws us over anyway. And they’re still San Diego. But I sure as hell don’t want to play them in the first round, so a win here gives them the bye for sure.
9) New Orleans: Just for the SOV, no big deal here. But if you’re going to root for someone, root for them.

So there you have it, 9 of these games have a big impact on us. Root hard all week!



In terms of our current draft position: The Bears currently have what would be the 9th pick in the draft, and depending on how things go, that can move all the way up to most likely the highest being 6th, and the lowest being around 16th or so. If it stays where it is though and we get a top 10 draft pick, then DAMN, that worked out well.

And that’s all for this week…hopefully we pulled off the upset next week and are in good shape for week 17, but if not…these scenarios already tell you what you need to know. :)

:thanku:

I don't know what you do for a living, but I'm impressed with the depth of this post.

OBF1
12-21-2009, 04:07 PM
Here is all anyone really needs brother...... Denver wins out and we do not give a rats ass what anyone else does. This is the only scenerio I care about. If we lose Sunday, put a fork in it and lets get ready for 2010.

Good work on putting this all together.

This seems way to familiar to last years collapse, Just sayin

Ambiguous
12-21-2009, 04:21 PM
:thanku:

I don't know what you do for a living, but I'm impressed with the depth of this post.

Do you really need to quote that for a one sentence reply? I'm trying to read this on my phone, lol.

Arkie
12-21-2009, 06:02 PM
what if:

Bengals and Patriots lose out
Broncos and Ravens split
Steelers, Titans, Jags, Jets, and Texans win out

and there is a nine-way tie at 9-7?

RunYouOver26
12-21-2009, 06:59 PM
what if:

Bengals and Patriots lose out
Broncos and Ravens split
Steelers, Titans, Jags, Jets, and Texans win out

and there is a nine-way tie at 9-7?

Oh my god....I'll get back to you in a little bit ROFL!

Scratch that...I'll get back to you tomorrow...Miami and New England would have the same divisional record, if New England wins it though, the Miami would knock the Jets out...and Cincy would win the division because of head to head sweeps of PIT and BAL. But that would be a mess.

Ambiguous
12-21-2009, 07:17 PM
what if:

Bengals and Patriots lose out
Broncos and Ravens split
Steelers, Titans, Jags, Jets, and Texans win out

and there is a nine-way tie at 9-7?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=41015155&15=50004450&16=15105515

Quoydogs
12-21-2009, 07:25 PM
Nice post man. How do you figure all this SH@t out. Man Thanks.
PS My wife says if you have anymore free time our garage needs cleaned thanks.

Crushaholic
12-22-2009, 12:04 AM
I think it would be a great idea if we finish the regular season with a two-game winning streak...:bronxrox:

BroncoDoug
12-22-2009, 02:28 AM
I think it would be a great idea if we finish the regular season with a two-game winning streak...:bronxrox:

lets just finish the whole season with a 5 game win streak

long beach bronco
12-22-2009, 04:34 AM
A 6 game win streak would be better. ;)

long beach bronco
12-22-2009, 04:35 AM
We started with 6 wins, lets finish with 6 wins.

HorseHead
12-22-2009, 05:41 AM
can you do my taxes?

go_broncos
12-22-2009, 06:28 AM
with the way we are playing..it is very difficult to beat PHI.
It will be like CAR game we played last year.

Crushaholic
12-22-2009, 08:36 AM
lets just finish the whole season with a 5 game win streak

Ah, yes. Even better...:thumbsup:

BigPlayShay
12-22-2009, 09:05 AM
According to NFL.com we have a clinching scenario this week:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

CLINCHING SCENARIO: Broncos clinch a playoff spot a win + losses by JAC, MIA, NYJ and PIT.

missingnumber7
12-22-2009, 09:07 AM
Cliff notes version for everyone...The only version of this that matters. Broncos win out...Broncos in. Nuff said.

Broncoman13
12-22-2009, 09:10 AM
Long, Long post...don't expect most to read it all, look through and find what interests you. Enjoy.

...


:)

Major props for that post... did you come up with all of this yourself or did you get it from somewhere else? I'm curious b/c that is the most thorough breakdown I've seen yet and if it's yours you should be calling CBS, Fox, and the other major websites to use this... Outstanding work, and again if it's yours you're my new favorite poster on the Mane... or one of them any way. I really like that Broncofan7 guy. ;D Ha

55CrushEm
12-22-2009, 09:19 AM
According to NFL.com we have a clinching scenario this week:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

CLINCHING SCENARIO: Broncos clinch a playoff spot a win + losses by JAC, MIA, NYJ and PIT.

It goes without saying....that IF we do lose one more game to finish 9-7.....Philly is the game we want to lose. Kansas City, being an AFC team, is the more important game to win.

sgbfan
12-22-2009, 10:42 AM
100 post rule ;)

sutoazul
12-22-2009, 11:30 AM
we have to pull for New England and for Baltimore this week. Then even if we lose to Philly we most likely get in.

Ambiguous
12-22-2009, 11:35 AM
According to NFL.com we have a clinching scenario this week:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

CLINCHING SCENARIO: Broncos clinch a playoff spot a win + losses by JAC, MIA, NYJ and PIT.

I really don't like the chances of Houston helping us out there, but that would be awesome.

That whole winning in Philly thing looks a bit iffy too.

Rohirrim
12-22-2009, 11:38 AM
10 and 6 are our magic numbers. I'm calling in an expert:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/15/Shona_witch_doctor_(Zimbabwe).jpg/410px-Shona_witch_doctor_(Zimbabwe).jpg

Pontius Pirate
12-22-2009, 11:38 AM
I spotted two grammatical errors in your post. By law, your post is now invalid. Please erase and start over. Thank you.

RunYouOver26
12-22-2009, 12:40 PM
Major props for that post... did you come up with all of this yourself or did you get it from somewhere else? I'm curious b/c that is the most thorough breakdown I've seen yet and if it's yours you should be calling CBS, Fox, and the other major websites to use this... Outstanding work, and again if it's yours you're my new favorite poster on the Mane... or one of them any way. I really like that Broncofan7 guy. ;D Ha

Did it myself for the broncos boards I'm a member at...here, the official one, and BroncosForums.

There's a couple little mistakes in there that I'll fix up...I'm pretty sure after further reading into it that a 3 way tie between us, PIT and BAL eliminates Pit only for the #5 seed, not the 6, so you can go ahead and root for Baltimore to eliminate Pitt.

And our clinching scenario for this week is a Baltimore win (decent chance), Jacksonville loss (against new england, good chance), a jets loss (against Indy, great chance) and a miami loss (against houston, decent chance).

The hardest part of that scenario is us winning against Philly...not very likely.

long beach bronco
12-24-2009, 03:31 PM
But if we do lose to Philly and all those other 4 things happen, all we have to do then is beat KC in the final week.

Cmac821
12-24-2009, 03:41 PM
Holy smokes that is an incredible break down