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View Full Version : Looking ahead: To reach the playoffs


TheReverend
12-20-2009, 10:56 PM
Denvers remaining games
@ Philly
Vs KC

Balt (5 seed, hold tie breaker over Den)
@ Pitt
@ Oakland

Pitt (in the hunt, hold tie breaker over Den)
vs Balt
@ Miami

Jax (in the hunt, hold tie breaker to superior AFC record)
@ NE
@ Cleveland

Okay so I did this much more thoroughly a few mins ago but comp froze so here's just a simple run down of our main competition.

Naturally, our best scenario is to win out. If we don't, we need to AT LEAST put KC away at home.

At 9-7 we're still probably locks to the six seed due to:

Balt or Pitt will knock one of each other off. If Pitt beats Bal, AND beats Miami... then we're ****ed though.

Outside of that scenario, our conference record should lock us into a playoff berth unless Jax runs the tables vs NE and Cleveland. That would bring them to 8-4 and leave us at 7-5 (assuming we beat KC)/

Summary:
In week 16, root for Baltimore and New England, and we should be poised to clinch week 17 with a KC win whether or not we get roflstomped by Philly

bombquixote
12-20-2009, 11:02 PM
Well, I guess it's a good thing September games count.

TheReverend
12-20-2009, 11:04 PM
Well, I guess it's a good thing September games count.

Yes, but I'd gladly trade the Cinci and NE wins for victories over Balt and Pitt...

ZONA
12-20-2009, 11:13 PM
I would not assume for one second the Broncos can win either of the last 2 games. I think they can beat KC at home but I also thought they would have no problem with Oakland at home either. As for Philly on the road, forget it, not gonna happen.

SureShot
12-20-2009, 11:53 PM
Yep it will be a reach.

HAT
12-21-2009, 12:05 AM
Summary:
In week 16, root for Baltimore and New England, and we should be poised to clinch week 17 with a KC win whether or not we get roflstomped by Philly


Root for Houston over Miami too. That way IF Pitt beats Balty this week....Miami could beat Pitt in week 17 and both would have 8 losses.

TheReverend
12-21-2009, 12:12 AM
Root for Houston over Miami too. That way IF Pitt beats Balty this week....Miami could beat Pitt in week 17 and both would have 8 losses.

No... that doesn't matter. Miami has to win out to match our 7-5 AFC record (assuming we beat KC). Still, we win the next tie breaker: Vs Common Opponents. So Miami is not an issue.

I explained that in my original version that got wiped out.

The ONLY threats (assuming we beat KC) are Pitt and Balt and a longshot in Jax. Now, if we dont beat KC, we dont belong anywhere near the ****ing playoffs anyways.

OBF1
12-21-2009, 12:57 AM
This is strarting to look way too much like last season.

strafen
12-21-2009, 01:01 AM
I saw in the news tonight that, if the season were to end as is today, we would be in, and we would be playing New England in New England.
Food for thought...

Broncos4Life
12-21-2009, 01:41 AM
I saw in the news tonight that, if the season were to end as is today, we would be in, and we would be playing New England in New England, and losing in New England.
Food for thought...
Fixed it for ya......

Taco John
12-21-2009, 01:57 AM
Fixed it for ya......


Just wait until we tune up the Wild Left Tackle passing attack. You'll eat your words then.

WolfpackGuy
12-21-2009, 05:52 AM
Shouldn't be in this position.

The losses to WAS and OAK are just inexcusable.

Hulamau
12-21-2009, 06:01 AM
Denvers remaining games
@ Philly
Vs KC

Balt (5 seed, hold tie breaker over Den)
@ Pitt
@ Oakland

Pitt (in the hunt, hold tie breaker over Den)
vs Balt
@ Miami

Jax (in the hunt, hold tie breaker to superior AFC record)
@ NE
@ Cleveland

Okay so I did this much more thoroughly a few mins ago but comp froze so here's just a simple run down of our main competition.

Naturally, our best scenario is to win out. If we don't, we need to AT LEAST put KC away at home.

At 9-7 we're still probably locks to the six seed due to:

Balt or Pitt will knock one of each other off. If Pitt beats Bal, AND beats Miami... then we're ****ed though.

Outside of that scenario, our conference record should lock us into a playoff berth unless Jax runs the tables vs NE and Cleveland. That would bring them to 8-4 and leave us at 7-5 (assuming we beat KC)/

Summary:
In week 16, root for Baltimore and New England, and we should be poised to clinch week 17 with a KC win whether or not we get roflstomped by Philly

Good breakdown Rev,

At least we are even in position to debate what our chances are. Not many thought we would be three months ago. That said, I'd rather have lost 6 of the first 8 and won the last 6 and be playing strong at the end.

We need Buck next week to change it up with Moreno. Moreno is better when Buck can break those holes and loosen the D a bit. Our Oline blocking is terrible they sucked on the run and pass protection yesterday.

Lets see if we can pull another Giants game like effort together next week, stomp KC the following and make it in playing on a higher note regardless.

I think the team is sufficiently embarrassed by this Screw Job to respond next week. Just hope we catch Philly coasting a bit too .... Can happen.

Hulamau
12-21-2009, 06:04 AM
Root for Houston over Miami too. That way IF Pitt beats Balty this week....Miami could beat Pitt in week 17 and both would have 8 losses.

Could happen, Houston usually goes on a win streak once they have nothing to play for!

bloodsunday
12-21-2009, 07:54 AM
Summary:
In week 16, root for Baltimore and New England, and we should be poised to clinch week 17 with a KC win whether or not we get roflstomped by Philly

Yeah this is what I thought as well.

It's actually a pretty realistic scenario as well. It's not like we are hoping for miracles like the Browns to beat anyone.

Baltimore and NE still have plenty to play for. NE is VERY good at home. I'm a little more worried about Pittsburgh winning out than J'ville. That said, even if Pittsburgh gets by Baltimore this week, Miami will give them all they want. If they take that traveling road show (The Big Ben hold the ball for seven seconds circus), Big Ben may end up taking 10 sacks in that game.

Cito Pelon
12-21-2009, 08:01 AM
Well, it's nice to still have a chance. I hope Denver doesn't collapse.

LetsGoBroncos
12-21-2009, 08:52 AM
Rev, the only thing I see that I think you are wrong on is Miami. If the win out and we lose to philly and beat K.C., we are both 7-5 in the conference. Next tiebreaker is common opponents which are Indy, SD, Pitt and NE and we will both be 2-3

TheReverend
12-21-2009, 10:20 AM
Rev, the only thing I see that I think you are wrong on is Miami. If the win out and we lose to philly and beat K.C., we are both 7-5 in the conference. Next tiebreaker is common opponents which are Indy, SD, Pitt and NE and we will both be 2-3

Oooooh, you're right. When I looked at common opponents I hadn't looked at remaining games.

Nice catch, thanks and my apologies for an inaccurate OP.

This brings up strength of victory... in which case we might be boned. We ran it up on KC, but we've had some serious nail biters.

Requiem
12-21-2009, 10:25 AM
I'll take it one game at a time. Do your homework. Revert to what got you six wins in a row early in the season. We can beat the Eagles. With the roster and personnel turnover we had on this team, to even win eight games was huge for me. We are all just jaded because this is so much like last season with the collapse that it is almost unbearable two years in a row.

I have faith that this team can make the playoffs and do better as McDaniels gets a better grasp of things and is able to get our roster in functioning order. This team needs a complete overhaul on the interior, especially LG and C and unless Harris is ready to go next season, we already need more depth at RT. I love Harris, but I'm not so sure if he is our guy on that side moving forward, especially with Josh here.

Good news for us, we have a top ten draft pick coming our way and a decent amount of picks to follow. Cheer up.

PaintballCLE
12-21-2009, 10:31 AM
Oooooh, you're right. When I looked at common opponents I hadn't looked at remaining games.

Nice catch, thanks and my apologies for an inaccurate OP.

This brings up strength of victory... in which case we might be boned. We ran it up on KC, but we've had some serious nail biters.

just FYI

strenght of victory is record of teams you beat not by the points you won by.

HAT
12-21-2009, 10:31 AM
Oooooh, you're right. When I looked at common opponents I hadn't looked at remaining games.

Nice catch, thanks and my apologies for an inaccurate OP.

This brings up strength of victory... in which case we might be boned. We ran it up on KC, but we've had some serious nail biters.

That's why I'm saying root for Houston over Miami. Miami would then be out at 8 losses & free to beat Pitt in week 17 should Pitt get by Baltimore this week.

10-6 fixes all of this of course but it would be nice to know going in to week 17 that Denver just needs to win and their in. That can happen next Sunday if Pitt, Jax & Miami lose.

TheReverend
12-21-2009, 01:42 PM
just FYI

strenght of victory is record of teams you beat not by the points you won by.

just FYI

no it's not. That's "strength of schedule".

Head to head tie-breaker procedure:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

TheReverend
12-21-2009, 01:44 PM
That's why I'm saying root for Houston over Miami. Miami would then be out at 8 losses & free to beat Pitt in week 17 should Pitt get by Baltimore this week.

10-6 fixes all of this of course but it would be nice to know going in to week 17 that Denver just needs to win and their in. That can happen next Sunday if Pitt, Jax & Miami lose.

Yup, you were right. I didn't take the week 17 Pitt game into account. That's my fault.

Rabb
12-21-2009, 01:50 PM
I would just like to get back to the days of leaving no doubt or control to another team for our success, let's close this bitch out on our own

then again, I thought that yesterday too

55CrushEm
12-21-2009, 01:52 PM
Yup, you were right. I didn't take the week 17 Pitt game into account. That's my fault.

If you run the yahoo playoff generator.....Miami does NOT beat us in a 9-7 tiebreak (I think we would own strength of victory)......but I think you forgot about the J-E-T-S.....they WOULD own a 9-7 tiebreak over us.....

So, Rev, you are right, we need to root for Baltimore and New England this weekend......but the Jets also need to drop 1 more game.

Ambiguous
12-21-2009, 02:01 PM
If you run the yahoo playoff generator.....Miami does NOT beat us in a 9-7 tiebreak (I think we would own strength of victory)......but I think you forgot about the J-E-T-S.....they WOULD own a 9-7 tiebreak over us.....

So, Rev, you are right, we need to root for Baltimore and New England this weekend......but the Jets also need to drop 1 more game.


This is what worries me... Most likely, the jets don't play a single team that can change their playoff seeding by winning or losing. They looked pretty bad yesterday, but they could very easily win the next 2.

Broncomutt
12-21-2009, 02:02 PM
just FYI

no it's not. That's "strength of schedule".

Head to head tie-breaker procedure:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.



Strength of Victory was the record of the teams you have beaten.

Strength of Schedule is the record of the teams you have beaten and lost to.

Points don't come into play until the next tiebreaker.

The Joker
12-21-2009, 02:03 PM
just FYI

no it's not. That's "strength of schedule".

Head to head tie-breaker procedure:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Strength of victory is the combined records of the teams you beat, whereas strength of schedule is combined records of all the teams you've played.

Strength of victory has nothing to do with how many points you actually win your games by.

55CrushEm
12-21-2009, 02:04 PM
This is what worries me... Most likely, the jets don't play a single team that can change their playoff seeding by winning or losing. They looked pretty bad yesterday, but they could very easily win the next 2.

I'm a bit worried about that, too. Does Indy try to keep the undefeated streak alive? If they do, I think they beat the Jets easily. If not, who knows.
Then, as you say, in week 17, the Bengals would most likely be playing only to shuffle themselves between the 3 & 4 seed....so they may not care.

Jets may very well benefit just on the TIMING of these last 2 opponents.

HAT
12-21-2009, 02:05 PM
just FYI

no it's not. That's "strength of schedule".

Head to head tie-breaker procedure:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.


Rev,
You are thinking of margin of victory.

Strength of victory is the winning percentage of teams that Denver beat.
Strength of schedule is the winning percentage of all 16 teams on the schedule.

TheReverend
12-21-2009, 02:07 PM
Strength of victory is the combined records of the teams you beat, whereas strength of schedule is combined records of all the teams you've played.

Strength of victory has nothing to do with how many points you actually win your games by.

I won't swear to this, but I thought:

Strength of Victory was the record of the teams you have beaten.

Strength of Schedule is the record of the teams you have beaten and lost to.

Points don't come into play until the next tiebreaker.

I misread the post he put up. Thank you.

Ambiguous
12-21-2009, 02:10 PM
I won't swear to this, but I thought:

Strength of Victory was the record of the teams you have beaten.

Strength of Schedule is the record of the teams you have beaten and lost to.

Points don't come into play until the next tiebreaker.

Strength of Victory - If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.

Schedule is wins and losses.

LetsGoBroncos
12-21-2009, 02:16 PM
There is one thing I am confused on. So if say 4 teams are tied at 9-7, and 2 of those teams are Pittsburgh and Baltimore, then they eliminate one of those2 teams first since they are in the same division right? So if say us, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston were all 9-7 and they eliminated Pittsburgh because Baltimore is ahead of them on tiebreakers...so then it is us houston and Baltimore and Baltimore gets in, does it start over again and bring Pittsburgh back into the picture?

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

bronco militia
12-21-2009, 02:20 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=01015155&15=00000000&16=14501160

UberBroncoMan
12-21-2009, 03:18 PM
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&14=01015155&15=00000000&16=14501160

That helped... I'm actually surprised how feasible finishing 9-7 is.

All these teams have losable games ahead of them too... just like the Broncos do with Philly.

Miami is pretty much done for unless all these teams including us meltdown or they win the division from NE.

NYJ needs to lose 1 game - faces Indy/Cinci

Pitt needs to lose 1 game - faces Balt/Miami

Jags need to lose 1 game - faces NE/Cleavland - 2nd game should be a win.

So there you have it.

Indy win/Balt win/NE win ='s a 9-7 lock for us.

55CrushEm
12-21-2009, 03:21 PM
That helped... I'm actually surprised how feasible finishing 9-7 is.

All these teams have losable games ahead of them too... just like the Broncos do with Philly.

Miami is pretty much done for unless all these teams including us meltdown or they win the division from NE.

NYJ needs to lose 1 game - faces Indy/Cinci

Pitt needs to lose 1 game - faces Balt/Miami

Jags need to lose 1 game - faces NE/Cleavland - 2nd game should be a win.

So there you have it.

Indy win/Balt win/NE win ='s a 9-7 lock for us.

That's what I've been saying all day......where have you been? You can step away from the ledge now.

Pontius Pirate
12-21-2009, 03:39 PM
http://msp73.photobucket.com/albums/i201/aykis16/playoffs.jpg

Ambiguous
12-21-2009, 03:45 PM
lol. Pleayoffs?