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View Full Version : Win two and in?


Jesterhole
12-19-2009, 07:07 AM
Is there any scenario where we win two out of our last three and still don't make the playoffs?

The Joker
12-19-2009, 07:18 AM
Baltimore winning out would pass us.

If our one loss comes against either Kansas or Oakland, then Miami could too.

I'm not sure who has the tie-breaker between us and Miami if they win out and we lose to Philly and finish 10-6?

KevinJames
12-19-2009, 07:35 AM
yes win two and were in.

we hold tie breakers over every team but the Ravens.

Conklin
12-19-2009, 08:04 AM
yes win two and were in.

we hold tie breakers over every team but the Ravens.

and stealers, and miami if we lose to an afc team

BigPlayShay
12-19-2009, 08:12 AM
and stealers, and miami if we lose to an afc team

Steelers have 7 losses, they can't catch us if we win 2.

gyldenlove
12-19-2009, 09:07 AM
If we win 2, regarless of who we lose to Baltimore can get ahead of us in the standing based on head to head.

If we win 2 AFC games, and Miami wins out then it will be decided by which group of teams wins more games in the last 3 weeks: Cincinnati, 2xOakland, Cleveland, 2xKansas City, Dallas, Giants, San Diego or Buffalo, Jetsx2, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Pittsburgh.

Currently the strength of victory tie breaker is exactly even if we win over Kansas City and Oakland and the Dolphins win out, so if the teams we have beaten win more of their last games than the teams the Dolphins have beaten we are in with 2 AFC wins and if not then Miami can still pass us.

UberBroncoMan
12-19-2009, 09:18 AM
If we win 2, regarless of who we lose to Baltimore can get ahead of us in the standing based on head to head.

If we win 2 AFC games, and Miami wins out then it will be decided by which group of teams wins more games in the last 3 weeks: Cincinnati, 2xOakland, Cleveland, 2xKansas City, Dallas, Giants, San Diego or Buffalo, Jetsx2, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Pittsburgh.

Currently the strength of victory tie breaker is exactly even if we win over Kansas City and Oakland and the Dolphins win out, so if the teams we have beaten win more of their last games than the teams the Dolphins have beaten we are in with 2 AFC wins and if not then Miami can still pass us.

Well... lets hope Miami and Balt each lose one game so we don't have to worry about winning out.

Titans, Texans, Steelers isn't exactly easy for Miami... and they are ALL AFC teams :).

broncofan2438
12-19-2009, 09:23 AM
This game against Oakland has me worried a bit. I hope we come out playing good ball or its gonna get ugly

Pony Boy
12-19-2009, 09:29 AM
If we can't win two of the next three by convincing margins. then we should be sitting on our ass at home.

beanerbronco
12-19-2009, 10:40 AM
If we can't win two of the next three by convincing margins. then we should be sitting on our ass at home.

I couldn't agree more. If we don't beat the raiders or the chiefs (Who we just killed two weeks ago) we don't deserve to go in the playoffs.
Hopefully we don't have our usual December meltdown this year.

strafen
12-19-2009, 11:10 AM
We need to win out. Anything less than that and thing will become interesting for us.Oakland has proven they can stage an upset against the top teams in the league, having beaten in their 4 wins 3 play-off contender teams -at the time anyway- @ Pittsburgh, then Philadelphia and Cincinnati

enjolras
12-19-2009, 12:07 PM
I'm confused. Yes Baltimore can pass us, but aren't there two wildcard spots?

atomicbloke
12-19-2009, 02:00 PM
If our 2 wins are against Chiefs and Raiders, then we are in barring a very extraordinary set of circumstances.

If Broncos, Ravens and Dolphins all finish 10-6, then head to head won't count since Dolphins haven't played the Broncos and Ravens. Conference record will be tied at 8-4. Common opponents won't count since there needs to be a minimum of 4.

So it comes down to strength of victory. The Broncos currently hold that tiebreaker over both the Ravens and the Dolphins. It would take an extra-ordinary set of circumstances for both of them to pass the Broncos on that tie-breaker.

However, if Denver finish 10-6 by beating Philly and dropping one to Chiefs or Raiders, and Ravens and Dolphins also finish 10-6, then Denver will be eliminated since both Ravens and Dolphins will have the conference tie-breaker.

Archer81
12-19-2009, 02:09 PM
Win out. 11-5 and it wont be a problem.


:Broncos:

Paladin
12-19-2009, 02:29 PM
All will be revealed to you at 6:00PM RMST December 19.

Broncos win and then it will becomes clear.....

Patience, Grasshopper.......

orange 4 life
12-19-2009, 03:16 PM
Without the detailed analysis (but thanks to those that did so) the bottom line is if we win two (against oak and kc) we're VIRTUALLY assured of a playoff spot.

On another note (and forgive the excessive optimism) the division IS still in reach!!
It's a stretch, but maybe not as much as many think.
We of course must win out, but given the schedule (and the fact that we SHOULD'VE just beat the Colts on the road) why can't we?

In addition, we would need the chargers to lose to Tenn. and Cinci, but is that really THAT MUCH of a stretch?
Titans are playing for pride, and playing a lot better, and Cinci is due for a turnaround.
Someone (by all means please do) could confirm or deny, but if we win out and they lose those two games (both to AFC opponents) we'd have the tiebreaker with the 11-5 record and win the division.

Anyway, I realize it's unlikely, but it's a whole lot more likely than what happened to the same two teams last season!
Here's to hoping. One game at a time.

Jake

Atwater His Ass
12-19-2009, 03:50 PM
yes win two and were in.

we hold tie breakers over every team but the Ravens.

not true at all.

if we lose against oak or kc, mia holds tie breaker based on conference record with us (if 10-6 is the cutoff)

Atwater His Ass
12-19-2009, 03:58 PM
If our 2 wins are against Chiefs and Raiders, then we are in barring a very extraordinary set of circumstances.

If Broncos, Ravens and Dolphins all finish 10-6, then head to head won't count since Dolphins haven't played the Broncos and Ravens. Conference record will be tied at 8-4. Common opponents won't count since there needs to be a minimum of 4.

So it comes down to strength of victory. The Broncos currently hold that tiebreaker over both the Ravens and the Dolphins. It would take an extra-ordinary set of circumstances for both of them to pass the Broncos on that tie-breaker.

However, if Denver finish 10-6 by beating Philly and dropping one to Chiefs or Raiders, and Ravens and Dolphins also finish 10-6, then Denver will be eliminated since both Ravens and Dolphins will have the conference tie-breaker.

it wouldn't be so extrodinary really.

DEN strength of victory is .490
MIA is .384
BAL is .397

However, as I posed in another thread, you really get hammered by beating bad teams and really get helped by beating good teams in this calculation (duh).

Denver plays out against two of the worst teams in the league, OAK (.308 %) and KC (.231%), which they have to win.

If MIA wins out, which they have to in order to be having this discussion, they beat HOU, TEN, and PIT which currently avg a .472 winning %.

So in other words, MIA will get a large boost to their strength of victory, and DEN will take a large decline.

It is possible (and not extermely unlikely in either case) that with a 3-way tie for the WC at 10-6, that DEN can win the #5 seed or be eliminated all together.

atomicbloke
12-19-2009, 04:22 PM
it wouldn't be so extrodinary really.

DEN strength of victory is .490
MIA is .384
BAL is .397

However, as I posed in another thread, you really get hammered by beating bad teams and really get helped by beating good teams in this calculation (duh).

Denver plays out against two of the worst teams in the league, OAK (.308 %) and KC (.231%), which they have to win.

If MIA wins out, which they have to in order to be having this discussion, they beat HOU, TEN, and PIT which currently avg a .472 winning %.

So in other words, MIA will get a large boost to their strength of victory, and DEN will take a large decline.

It is possible (and not extermely unlikely in either case) that with a 3-way tie for the WC at 10-6, that DEN can win the #5 seed or be eliminated all together.

Yes, but that figure will change depending on how TEN, PIT and HOU do on their other 2 games. Other than MIA, TEN plays SD and @SEA, PIT plays GB and BAL, and HOU plays @STL and NE. So these 3 teams will lose to MIA (for this discussion to matter) and have at least 1 other difficult game, and PIT has 2. So that .472 winning % for MIA could go down too.

As I said, it is very convoluted.