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Bronco Rob
12-16-2009, 04:27 AM
Draft redux

Re-projecting the 2009 first round based on season-to-date performances


It's 20-20 hindsight time, when I get to re-pick the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft with the benefit of 14 weeks of regular season results to guide by. Our sixth annual December NFL re-draft attempts to detail the way things should have unfolded in New York on April 26th, based on how things have gone so far this season. As always, rookie-season production, for the most part, wins out over potential and projection in our re-draft.


1.) Detroit Lions (Original pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia)

RE-DO PICK: MICHAEL OHER, OT, OLE MISS

I'm not making the case that Stafford was a mistake, only that playing a franchise quarterback before you have an offensive line to protect him is putting the cart before the horse. Stafford has gotten killed this season (24 sacks in 10 games), and it makes more sense for Detroit to have gone for Oher, the draft's top-performing tackle, to protect someone's, uh, Blind Side. Oher has played well at both right and left tackle for Baltimore this season, and scouts say he'd be a consensus top 5 pick if the draft were re-held today.


2.) St. Louis Rams (Original pick: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor)

RE-DO PICK: MATTHEW STAFFORD, QB, GEORGIA

The Rams have passed on at least four first-round quarterbacks in the past two drafts -- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in 2009 -- and there's no team in more obvious need of a new starting quarterback for 2010. With that in mind, and Smith having underperformed as a rookie, I'd select Stafford here, with the knowledge that St. Louis could have given him a redshirt season of sorts while Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller served out this long and trying season for the Rams.


3.) Kansas City Chefs (Original pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU)

RE-DO PICK: PERCY HARVIN, WR-KR, FLORIDA

With six receiving touchdowns, two kick return touchdowns, and 13 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards, Harvin has been the league's most electrifying rookie play-maker. The Chiefs could sure have used a jolt of offense from their rookie class. They've scored 16 points or fewer in nine of 13 games this season, and their offense ranks 30th overall in yards (272.4), and 28th in points (15.8).


4.) Seattle Seahawks (Original pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest)

RE-DO PICK: BRIAN CUSHING, LB, USC

Curry has been very solid for the Seahawks, but Cushing has been downright spectacular for the Texans and is already one of the league's most effective outside linebackers. He finds the ball consistently, and can rush the passer, play the run, and shows up strong in pass coverage. What else is there? As much as Seattle could have made use of an offensive tackle this year, Cushing has been too good to pass on.


5.) New York Jets (Original pick: Mark DIRTY Sanchez, QB, USC)

RE-DO PICK: SANCHEZ

Sure, it has been a rollercoaster first season for "the Sanchise" in New York, but that's a fairly typical rookie experience for a quarterback, at least before Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco blew the curve for everyone last year. The Jets needed a quarterback, and they took a quarterback. Now it's time to grow with him. Sanchez showed flashes of brilliance early, but his limited collegiate playing experience eventually caught up with him.


6.) Cincinnati Bengals (Original pick: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama)

RE-DO PICK: PHIL LOADHOLT, OT, OKLAHOMA

The juxtaposition must have been a bit obvious Sunday in Minneapolis. The Bengals gave Smith his long-awaited first start at right tackle, and he fared OK against the Vikings defensive line. But Minnesota selected Loadholt toward the end of the second round (54th) and he has excelled at right tackle, starting 12 of 13 games and handling most everything thrown at him.


7.) Chokeland Raiders (Original pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland)

RE-DO PICK: MICHAEL CRABTREE, WR, TEXAS TECH

C'mon, we couldn't resist. Crabtree was right. He should have never gotten past the Raiders in April's first round and we're here to right the wrong. Despite the belated start to his rookie season, his half-year of work is pretty impressive. He has 37 catches for 473 yards and a pair of touchdowns in eight games, and if you doubled those numbers, his 16-game production would be the stuff of an Offensive Rookie of the Year winner.


8.) Jacksonville Jaguars (Original pick: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia)

RE-DO PICK: SEBASTIAN VOLLMER, OT, HOUSTON

The Jaguars have started their two rookie offensive tackles, Monroe and second-rounder Eben Britton, for most of the season, and both have had their highs and lows. But Vollmer, the 58th overall pick, has been one of the draft's bigger surprises, starting 11 games and playing well enough at left tackle to probably end Matt Light's tenure in New England in the near future. All you really need to know is that Bill Belichick clearly trusts Vollmer to protect Tom Brady's blind side.


9.) Green Bay Packers (Original pick: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College)

RE-DO PICK: CLAY MATTHEWS JR., LB, USC

The Packers sure could have used a young offensive tackle to help protect Aaron Rodgers earlier this season, but with the three best ones (Oher, Loadholt and Vollmer) already gone, it's logical to bump the play-making Matthews up to this slot. Because there's no way he'll last until Green Bay's No. 26 pick this time around. Matthews' eight sacks rank second among league rookies, and he continues to improve as the season unfolds. 10


10.) San Francisco 49ers (Original pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech)

RE-DO PICK: JEREMY MACLIN, WR, MISSOURI

With Crabtree already in Oakland according to our re-draft, the 49ers would be fortunate to find Maclin still available. The Eagles receiver has been among the leading rookie play-makers all season, and before suffering a foot injury Sunday night against the Giants, he had 46 catches for 623 yards and four touchdowns in Philly's explosive offense. 11


11.) Buffalo Bills (Original pick: Aaron Maybin, DE-OLB, Penn State)

RE-DO PICK: BRIAN ORAKPO, LB-DE, TEXAS

Orakpo has a whopping 11 sacks to lead all rookie pass rushers, and that's exactly 11 more than the Bills have gotten from Maybin, one of the first round's biggest disappointments. Orakpo dropped Raiders quarterbacks four times on Sunday in Oakland, vaulting himself into strong contention for Defensive Rookie of the Year.


12.) THE Denver Broncos (Original pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia)

RE-DO PICK: MORENO

With the possible exception of having Moreno hold on to the ball as he crossed the goal line a few weeks back against San Diego, I wouldn't change a thing about his rookie season for the Broncos. He leads all rookie rushers with 837 yards and five touchdowns, and has been the picture of consistency, with seven games of at least 75 yards.


18.) THE Denver Broncos (Original pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee)

RE-DO PICK: LOUIS DELMAS, S, WESTERN MICHIGAN

Given the age and wealth of experience the Broncos have in their secondary, a young, play-making presence like Delmas would be a great fit for the future. Delmas has been one of the bright spots in Detroit this season, and the undersized hard hitter is reportedly the first rookie in NFL history to notch a safety, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception in the same season. Works for me.



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/15/redraft/index.html

OBF1
12-16-2009, 04:38 AM
* First-round picks who did not make the cut this time: No. 2 Jason Smith, Rams, OT; No. 3 Tyson Jackson, Chiefs, DE; No. 6 Andre Smith, Bengals, OT; No. 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders, WR; No. 8 Eugene Monroe, Jaguars, OT; No. 11 Aaron Maybin, Bills, DE; No. 16 Larry English, Chargers, LB; No. 18 Robert Ayers, Broncos, DE-LB; No. 21 Alex Mack, Browns, C; No. 24 Peria Jerry, Falcons, DT; No. 27 Donald Brown, Colts, RB; No. 28 Eric Wood, Bills, G-C; No. 32 Evander Hood, Steelers, DT.

OBF1
12-16-2009, 04:40 AM
5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.

barryr
12-16-2009, 06:25 AM
5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.

Many won't. The Cutler fans will demand a QB no matter what with the top pick.

Rock Chalk
12-16-2009, 06:30 AM
5 of the top 10 picks did not make the re-do. 13 of 32 overall. Shows what a crap shoot the 1st round is. Remember this fans when it comes draft time.

It's early yet for a redo. Some players take longer to develop than others.

I figure of the 13 that didnt make the re-do, probably 6 or 7 of them will by year 3 be worth their #1 draft slot.

I dont think more than 6 or 7 players from the 1st round are busts in any given year. I think that number jumps probably 2 or 3 players per round though.

So by the second round you have 8-10 busts, the third round 10-15 busts, etc.

Bronco Boy
12-16-2009, 07:15 AM
They should do it again in 5 years.

vancejohnson82
12-16-2009, 07:35 AM
but, but, but....Moreno is a BUST

remember???

cmhargrove
12-16-2009, 08:15 AM
I agree that Ayers hasn't played like a first rounder....yet.

However, he has been a contributor as a rookie and he looks like he is definitely capable. I am going with Mike Mayock here in saying Ayers could be one of the top D-linemen from this draft in about 2-3 years. He's at least moving in the right direction.

I also think Moreno will get even better this offseason. I think that McCoach and McDennison will get very serious about LG and C this offseason and we will be even stronger running between the tackles. Most RB's not named Barry Sanders usually get tackled for no gain when the O-line gets pushed back 2 yards at the snap.

I think we did ok this draft. My biggest question mark is still Alphonso Smith. I don't mind that he hasn't been extremely productive, the other side is how many penalties he seems to draw on ST. That's a minus in my book. The jury is still out on Smith.

Garcia Bronco
12-16-2009, 08:19 AM
Al Wilson wasn't the badass he was his first year either.

Hercules Rockefeller
12-16-2009, 08:33 AM
Al Wilson wasn't the badass he was his first year either.

And some 1st round bust named Trevor Pryce was almost cut in camp and wasn't active for the first half of the season. That guy must have worked his way up to ass't manager at a McDonald's by now.

Rohirrim
12-16-2009, 08:35 AM
But, but, but I thought the draft experts on the Mane said the USC LBs were going to be a bunch of busts. ???

WolfpackGuy
12-16-2009, 08:49 AM
How about a 2010 first round projection with the Broncos two first round picks?

Oh...wait...

Bronco Rob
12-17-2009, 03:30 AM
:sunshine:

Dos Rios
12-17-2009, 07:59 AM
What's the story with Tyson Jackson this year?

Fan In Exile
12-17-2009, 08:58 AM
I would much prefer Raji over Delmas. I'm convinced that D-line has a far greater impact than safety does.

TonyR
12-17-2009, 09:23 AM
This is exactly why those melting down over Denver's picks need to relax. For one, it's too early. For another, you can go back and second guess almost every pick in every draft. For example, we all love Eddie Royal but if you could go back would you take DeSean Jackson instead? I would, and that's no knock on Eddie or the pick. Jackson is just more of a difference maker. Also note how many of the 11 teams who picked ahead of Denver this year made "mistakes". Many of us wanted Tyson Jackson or Raji. Instead of moaning about the "failure" of Ayers perhaps we should be happy we didn't move up and pay these guys top 10 money.

Also note that many were moaning about Denver not taking Hood or Jerry, who were evaluated here to not make the cut.

Tombstone RJ
12-17-2009, 09:38 AM
Denver Broncos (Original pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee)


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/15/redraft/index.html#ixzz0ZxuNyeNc
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription
RE-DO PICK: LOUIS DELMAS, S, WESTERN MICHIGANGiven the age and wealth of experience the Broncos have in their secondary, a young, play-making presence like Delmas would be a great fit for the future. Delmas has been one of the bright spots in Detroit this season, and the undersized hard hitter is reportedly the first rookie in NFL history to notch a safety, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception in the same season. Works for me.

Its too soon to call this a bad pick. Way too soon. This is just nit picking BS on Sports Crapastrated's part.

SonOfLe-loLang
12-17-2009, 09:44 AM
I agree that Ayers hasn't played like a first rounder....yet.

However, he has been a contributor as a rookie and he looks like he is definitely capable. I am going with Mike Mayock here in saying Ayers could be one of the top D-linemen from this draft in about 2-3 years. He's at least moving in the right direction.

I also think Moreno will get even better this offseason. I think that McCoach and McDennison will get very serious about LG and C this offseason and we will be even stronger running between the tackles. Most RB's not named Barry Sanders usually get tackled for no gain when the O-line gets pushed back 2 yards at the snap.

I think we did ok this draft. My biggest question mark is still Alphonso Smith. I don't mind that he hasn't been extremely productive, the other side is how many penalties he seems to draw on ST. That's a minus in my book. The jury is still out on Smith.

Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out:)

TonyR
12-17-2009, 09:46 AM
Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out:)

I've always said that Sanders was/is at least mildly overrated but I take a lot of flak for that opinion.

Garcia Bronco
12-17-2009, 10:01 AM
Not to split hairs, but Barry Sanders used to get tackled for loss all the time. He'd just break a 60 yarder to even it out:)

This. Sanders, IMO, is overrated.

gtown
12-17-2009, 12:35 PM
* First-round picks who did not make the cut this time: No. 2 Jason Smith, Rams, OT; No. 3 Tyson Jackson, Chiefs, DE; No. 6 Andre Smith, Bengals, OT; No. 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders, WR; No. 8 Eugene Monroe, Jaguars, OT; No. 11 Aaron Maybin, Bills, DE; No. 16 Larry English, Chargers, LB; No. 18 Robert Ayers, Broncos, DE-LB; No. 21 Alex Mack, Browns, C; No. 24 Peria Jerry, Falcons, DT; No. 27 Donald Brown, Colts, RB; No. 28 Eric Wood, Bills, G-C; No. 32 Evander Hood, Steelers, DT.

Look at how many of these guys are playing positions that take a few years to learn. Six of them are D lineman, five are O lineman, and two are skills position players. This list proves nothing except that drafting some positions offers a much more immediate reward than others, such as RB and LB, or are too hard to judge right away, like QB.

Popps
12-17-2009, 12:39 PM
but, but, but....Moreno is a BUST

remember???


Taco and Dragster are not going to be happy with this.

LonghornBronco
12-17-2009, 12:50 PM
This. Sanders, IMO, is overrated.

NO WAY! You guys are crazy:loopy: Immagine Sanders behind a mediocre line. The guy had to make 2 people miss just to get to the line of scrimmage.

watermock
12-17-2009, 02:27 PM
Can we trade Smith and a 3rd for Tyson?

TonyR
12-17-2009, 02:31 PM
Can we trade Smith and a 3rd for Tyson?

Mike Tyson?

Bronco Rob
12-19-2009, 03:43 AM
:rofl:

watermock
12-19-2009, 03:53 AM
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/5v0vl6iTlC4&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5v0vl6iTlC4&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>.

watermock
12-19-2009, 03:56 AM
Tyson Jackson.

Broncoman13
12-19-2009, 12:51 PM
And some 1st round bust named Trevor Pryce was almost cut in camp and wasn't active for the first half of the season. That guy must have worked his way up to ass't manager at a McDonald's by now.


I knew Trevor struggled his rookie year, but I didn't know it was that bad to almost get cut... Is that exaggeration or a true story? Not calling you out, just curious.

Broncoman13
12-19-2009, 01:04 PM
Denver Broncos (Original pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee)


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/15/redraft/index.html#ixzz0ZxuNyeNc
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription
RE-DO PICK: LOUIS DELMAS, S, WESTERN MICHIGANGiven the age and wealth of experience the Broncos have in their secondary, a young, play-making presence like Delmas would be a great fit for the future. Delmas has been one of the bright spots in Detroit this season, and the undersized hard hitter is reportedly the first rookie in NFL history to notch a safety, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception in the same season. Works for me.

Its too soon to call this a bad pick. Way too soon. This is just nit picking BS on Sports Crapastrated's part.


Nitpicking? Sorry but given the body of work which each rookie on this list has had to work with, Ayers isn't worth a first round pick. I expect production from a first round pick. I think guys like Orakpo, Cushing, and Harvin are exceeding expectations of a first round pick. Guys like Moreno, Stafford, Oher, and Sanchez are right where they should be as rookies, playing valuable roles and showing great promise for the future but they aren't quite in that Pro-Bowl category yet (though Oher will likely be b/c of the extra fame his movie brought him). Guys like Ayers who have very little impact on game day and are even healthy game day sits in their rookie seasons deserve to be criticized. Most rode Jarvis Moss' ass his rookie year, why wouldn't we do the same with Ayers?

Moss, one pick higher than Ayers.

Moss' rookie season- 6 games, 12 tackles, 1 Sack.

Ayers' rookie season- 12 games, 16 tackles, 0 Sacks.

-Stats per NFL.com

Statistically speaking, Moss out played Ayers. And you seriously think that is nitpicking to call Ayers out?

Inkana7
12-19-2009, 01:42 PM
Except that Moss was never noticed his rookie year, or any year. Ever. His sack consisted of running into Ben Roethlisberger after Dumervil chased him out of the pocket. Ayers has actually had impact on games.

snowspot66
12-19-2009, 02:12 PM
Nitpicking? Sorry but given the body of work which each rookie on this list has had to work with, Ayers isn't worth a first round pick. I expect production from a first round pick. I think guys like Orakpo, Cushing, and Harvin are exceeding expectations of a first round pick. Guys like Moreno, Stafford, Oher, and Sanchez are right where they should be as rookies, playing valuable roles and showing great promise for the future but they aren't quite in that Pro-Bowl category yet (though Oher will likely be b/c of the extra fame his movie brought him). Guys like Ayers who have very little impact on game day and are even healthy game day sits in their rookie seasons deserve to be criticized. Most rode Jarvis Moss' ass his rookie year, why wouldn't we do the same with Ayers?

Moss, one pick higher than Ayers.

Moss' rookie season- 6 games, 12 tackles, 1 Sack.

Ayers' rookie season- 12 games, 16 tackles, 0 Sacks.

-Stats per NFL.com

Statistically speaking, Moss out played Ayers. And you seriously think that is nitpicking to call Ayers out?

Difference is people actually see Ayer's number on the screen doing things. Things that don't get recorded in the stat book. With Moss when he did anything it was like "whoa, where did he come from, haven't seen him all day".

gunns
12-19-2009, 03:50 PM
They should do it again in 5 years.

No they shouldn't. If a team is taking a 1st round prospect and paying them first round money, they better produce that season.

There's no way anyone can say Sanders is overrated. He may have been but what he did with a lousy team, lousy QB's and lousy line was carry that team for whatever success they had.

Durango
12-19-2009, 04:32 PM
I don't follow this stuff with the passion of lot of younger fans do, but on a re-do, I would want the Broncos to take Orakpo. After the disaster that is Jarvis Moss, a success would've been nice at the position and a Buckhalter-Hillis 1-2 punch at RB would've been fine in my opinion.

cutthemdown
12-19-2009, 04:38 PM
NO WAY! You guys are crazy:loopy: Immagine Sanders behind a mediocre line. The guy had to make 2 people miss just to get to the line of scrimmage.

They had some good olines during his time. IMO Walter Payton ran with worst blocking.

strafen
12-19-2009, 04:58 PM
but, but, but....Moreno is a BUST

remember???Oh boy. You sure love to open up a can worms, don't ya'?
I believe what I see more than what I read.
He's been hyped by the media and by the fans.
He's done jack-**** to even consider him an impact player.
The fact that he leads all rookies, should tell you to look at what his competition is and get a clear idea if we're talking about a fair competition, or if it even can be called competition.

That being said, I agree. He's been a model of consistency. Solid 64 ypg and no 100-yard game is pretty consistent to me.

Did I say he's got 19 receptions for 109 yards?
What his name did last year?

If anything, Correl Buckhalter should be the primary rusher. Not Moreno.
But we all know what our rookie head coach wants to prove, don't we?

We still have 3 more games left on the season. Let's be patient and then re-group...