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View Full Version : AFC West will be decided in 9 days


gyldenlove
11-13-2009, 04:46 PM
In 9 days we play the Chargers at Invesco, a win in that game means we will win the division and get home field in at least 1 playoff game.

In the next 9 games we face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so that should be 4 victories taking us to 10. Likewise the Chuggers face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so would be 4 victories for them as well bringing them to 9.

This means that is we beat the Chuggers in 9 days we are looking at a most likely scenario that has us 2.5 games ahead of the Chuggers, meaning we would have to lose at home to the Giants and away to Philly and Indy while Sandy eggo would have to win at home over the Eagles, away over Dallas and at home over the Bengals.

If we lose to the Chuggers on the other hand we would be tied in all tie breakers as of now, meaning it comes down to if we can beat more teams from the group Giants, Eagles and Colts than the Chuggers can beat from the group Eagles, Cowboys and Bengals. That is a much less certain proposition.

spdirty
11-13-2009, 04:50 PM
A lot depends on Sunday. We take care of bizness against Washington and Philly takes care on their end, THEN we beat Sandy Eggo, we're lookin good.

OBF1
11-13-2009, 05:01 PM
Why even play the rest of the season since you have laid out the entire "Plan"

Any team can lose on any given week, thinking otherwise gets you the Bronco's of 2008

gyldenlove
11-13-2009, 05:06 PM
Why even play the rest of the season since you have laid out the entire "Plan"

Any team can lose on any given week, thinking otherwise gets you the Bronco's of 2008

Dude, if you don't want to think, feel free to skip my posts.

Arkie
11-13-2009, 05:25 PM
Philly may not take care of their end. They have to fly coast to coast again to SD, and they didn't do very good in Oakland.

snowspot66
11-13-2009, 05:28 PM
Flying East to West isn't really a disadvantage. They just didn't show up to play in that game.

Gort
11-13-2009, 05:30 PM
In 9 days we play the Chargers at Invesco, a win in that game means we will win the division and get home field in at least 1 playoff game.

In the next 9 games we face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so that should be 4 victories taking us to 10. Likewise the Chuggers face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so would be 4 victories for them as well bringing them to 9.

This means that is we beat the Chuggers in 9 days we are looking at a most likely scenario that has us 2.5 games ahead of the Chuggers, meaning we would have to lose at home to the Giants and away to Philly and Indy while Sandy eggo would have to win at home over the Eagles, away over Dallas and at home over the Bengals.

If we lose to the Chuggers on the other hand we would be tied in all tie breakers as of now, meaning it comes down to if we can beat more teams from the group Giants, Eagles and Colts than the Chuggers can beat from the group Eagles, Cowboys and Bengals. That is a much less certain proposition.

realistically, what the Broncos are playing for is the difference between the 4th playoff seed and the 5th playoff seed for the rest of this season.

let's pencil in INDY, NE, and PIT at #1 - #3.

from there, you have 2 scenarios. DEN wins the West or DEN gets a WC out of the West.

if DEN wins the west, we're probably looking at DEN, CIN, BAL at #4 - #6, though BAL makes it with a not very impressive record by beating SD on tie breakers.

if DEN only gets a WC, then it's SD, DEN, CIN at #4 - #6.

get the 4th and you have a home game against CIN.

get the 5th and you travel to SD.

of course this is all conjecture and based on how the 1st half of the season has played out and lots of things could change. but right now, that's what we're looking at... beating SD in 9 days could be the difference between a home game against CIN and a road game against SD.

i'd prefer a home game with CIN. :)

Anaximines
11-13-2009, 05:33 PM
makes a lot of sense, which means it probably won't go down that way :)

OBF1
11-13-2009, 05:39 PM
Dude, if you don't want to think, feel free to skip my posts.

Thanks for the advice, I am hoping on getting this wasted minute back sometime in my life. You were one of the assclowns thinking playoff scenerio last season and look what it got you then.:notworthy

Gort
11-13-2009, 05:47 PM
makes a lot of sense, which means it probably won't go down that way :)

i was just looking at CIN's remaining games and they could end up 12-4 and still not win the North. if that happens, DEN falls to the #6 slot and we'd have to travel to #3, which would either be NE or PIT in all likelihood. that's even worse than going to SD. d'oh.

we really need to sweep SD this year.

watermock
11-13-2009, 06:22 PM
It's pretty simple. Despite the 2 losses we are going to win the division with 2 wins the next 2 weeks.

We should be favored in both.

hambone13
11-13-2009, 06:27 PM
It's pretty simple. Despite the 2 losses we are going to win the division with 2 wins the next 2 weeks.

We should be favored in both.

I can't see us being favored against SD. They're hot offensively and their D is looking better than when we played. Our offense is just plain bland and underperforming. I'm really sweating the SD game...

Arkansas Bronco
11-13-2009, 06:30 PM
Why even play the rest of the season since you have laid out the entire "Plan"

Any team can lose on any given week, thinking otherwise gets you the Bronco's of 2008

No i think when we lost to the jags in the playoffs a fears back when we owned the AFC.

UberBroncoMan
11-13-2009, 08:02 PM
People might rag on the OP but it's valid.

If we beat San Diego we own the tiebreaker flat out (granted if they beat us we would likely tie the division record BUT we should win the conference record).

Winning the game essentially give us 2 games up on them instantly because of us gaining the tiebreaker.

If we beat Washington and then San Diego... we're 8-2 right there and they are 6-4 at best (with no tiebreaker) meaning they'd have to finish a game above us just to win the division.

... and if Philly takes care of San Deigo... they would be 5-5 and we'd be 8-2. Which is essentially a 4 game lead with 6 to play (which consists of 3 gimme games for the Broncos)

... and lets be honest the odds of them getting a game ahead of us with KC x2 and Oakland (2 of them at home) on the schedule, is next to none for San Diego.

So I agree with the OP. We beat San Diego in two weeks and we're in the playoffs SO LONG as we beat Washington this week.

If we can't do that I have little faith in us the rest of the way.

ZONA
11-13-2009, 08:21 PM
Why the hell is anybody giving the Steelers the North? The Bengals have the same record at 6-2 and have the tie breaker because they already beat the Steelers head to head, AND they also have already beat the Ravens and the Steelers still have 2 games to play against the Ravens. The Bengals are in the driver seat. In fact, I'm going to call it and say they win that division since 5 of their last 8 games come against the Lions, Chiefs, Jets, Browns and Raiders.

I think we will handle the skins but I agree, we must beat SD for hopes of a home game if we make the playoffs.

Gort
11-14-2009, 12:28 AM
Why the hell is anybody giving the Steelers the North? The Bengals have the same record at 6-2 and have the tie breaker because they already beat the Steelers head to head, AND they also have already beat the Ravens and the Steelers still have 2 games to play against the Ravens. The Bengals are in the driver seat. In fact, I'm going to call it and say they win that division since 5 of their last 8 games come against the Lions, Chiefs, Jets, Browns and Raiders.

I think we will handle the skins but I agree, we must beat SD for hopes of a home game if we make the playoffs.

PIT's remaining tough games: CIN, BAL x 2
CIN's remaining tough games: @PIT, @MIN, @SD

the schedule favors PIT

BroncoMan4ever
11-14-2009, 12:29 AM
Philly may not take care of their end. They have to fly coast to coast again to SD, and they didn't do very good in Oakland.

i think that had to do more with them just overlooking the Raiders as a ****ty team that they could just show up and get a win. they won't do that with SD. also, east coast teams traveling west isn't a big deal.

watermock
11-14-2009, 01:01 AM
Just thank God that McD hasn't been crowned the Mesiah just yet.

Atwater His Ass
11-14-2009, 01:03 AM
In 9 days we play the Chargers at Invesco, a win in that game means we will win the division and get home field in at least 1 playoff game.

In the next 9 games we face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so that should be 4 victories taking us to 10. Likewise the Chuggers face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so would be 4 victories for them as well bringing them to 9.

This means that is we beat the Chuggers in 9 days we are looking at a most likely scenario that has us 2.5 games ahead of the Chuggers, meaning we would have to lose at home to the Giants and away to Philly and Indy while Sandy eggo would have to win at home over the Eagles, away over Dallas and at home over the Bengals.

If we lose to the Chuggers on the other hand we would be tied in all tie breakers as of now, meaning it comes down to if we can beat more teams from the group Giants, Eagles and Colts than the Chuggers can beat from the group Eagles, Cowboys and Bengals. That is a much less certain proposition.

Have you been completely obilvious to the last 3 years in the afc west?

Do some research before you sound any dumber with your "must win" game before december bull****.

watermock
11-14-2009, 01:09 AM
Bull.

Wer win the next 2 weeks or even against the chargers we win the division.

We lose both, Cutler will be a faint memory.

meangene
11-14-2009, 02:44 AM
In 9 days we play the Chargers at Invesco, a win in that game means we will win the division and get home field in at least 1 playoff game.

In the next 9 games we face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so that should be 4 victories taking us to 10. Likewise the Chuggers face 4 opponents who have won no more than 2 games, so would be 4 victories for them as well bringing them to 9.

This means that is we beat the Chuggers in 9 days we are looking at a most likely scenario that has us 2.5 games ahead of the Chuggers, meaning we would have to lose at home to the Giants and away to Philly and Indy while Sandy eggo would have to win at home over the Eagles, away over Dallas and at home over the Bengals.

If we lose to the Chuggers on the other hand we would be tied in all tie breakers as of now, meaning it comes down to if we can beat more teams from the group Giants, Eagles and Colts than the Chuggers can beat from the group Eagles, Cowboys and Bengals. That is a much less certain proposition.

I think your analysis is pretty much right on as far as we are concerned. We win the next two weeks and I think we would demonstrate we have solved, at least to some extent, the offensive woes. We would be in good shape to win the division just by winning the games we are supposed to win. I'm not so much concerned about the Chargers losing games - they are talented enough to win all of them. It's more about how we are playing. Beating the Skins is a must. Beating the Chargers for a second time would speak volumes about this team and the rest of the season.

watermock
11-14-2009, 04:14 AM
Very Genius.

We win the next 2 and have 3 against 3 win teams total.

s0phr0syne
11-14-2009, 06:52 AM
This is a good Burger Bill post (i know, I know, oxymoron) that addresses this very subject

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/6516/going-down-the-stretch-with-denver-and-san-diego


Down the stretch with Denver, San Diego
November, 13, 2009
By Bill Williamson


Things have suddenly tightened up in the AFC West. What appeared to be a foregone conclusion has become a legitimate race.

On Oct.19, Denver won at San Diego to improve to 6-0 and dropped the Chargers to 2-3. Denver entered its bye week with a commanding 3.5-game lead. Since then, though, the division has taken a dramatic turn. The Chargers have won three straight games while Denver stumbled out of its bye week with two straight losses. At the midseason point, Denver is 6-2 and San Diego is 5-3.

Denver's lead has shriveled to one game as we head to the second half and a showdown in Denver between the Broncos and Chargers looming on Nov. 22. The shift has inspired us to take a look at each team’s schedule as in the second half. We enlisted the help of Gary Horton of Scouts Inc.

Horton thinks the Broncos have the tougher remaining schedule of the two teams and he thinks San Diego is the better team right now.

Denver:

Denver's Schedule
If the Broncos take care of the winnable games on their schedule, they should remain in the driver's seat.

Week Date Opponent
10 Sun, Nov 15 at Washington
11 Sun, Nov 22 San Diego
12 Thu, Nov 26 N.Y. Giants
13 Sun, Dec 6 at Kansas City
14 Sun, Dec 13 at Indianapolis
15 Sun, Dec 20 Oakland
16 Sun, Dec 27 at Philadelphia
17 Sun, Jan 3 Kansas City

The Broncos are still in control of this division. If they win favorable matchups with Washington, Kansas City (twice), and Oakland and if they beat San Diego, they will be in great shape. They could lose their three other remaining games and be 11-5 with the tiebreaker over San Diego. In that case, San Diego would have to win every other game besides the Denver game to finish 12-4.

‘Denver still has a real good chance here,” Horton said. “They have to win the winnable games.”

Horton said the next two games are paramount to Denver’s success. He calls Sunday’s trip to Washington as a potential “trap game” for Denver.

“I don’t think it is going to be that easy for Denver this weekend,” Horton said. “Washington plays good defense. Kyle Orton is struggling. If Denver loses this game, it will be in trouble .... But if Denver can avoid the trap and then beat San Diego, it should be fine.”

Four days after playing San Diego, Denver plays host to the New York Giants on Thanksgiving.

“You can beat the Giants if you can throw the deep ball,” Horton said. “But Orton hasn’t shown he can do that … So this is going to be a tough game for Denver.”

The Broncos then go to Kansas City on Dec. 6. That should be a very winnable game for the Broncos. Then, the schedule toughens again with a trip to Indianapolis. Horton is not hopeful for Denver in that game.

“I don’t see any way Denver can win that game at Indianapolis,” Horton said.

Then, Denver goes home to play host to Oakland on Dec. 20. That should be a winnable game. The Broncos’ last road tilt is Dec. 27 at Philadelphia.

“That is going to be very difficult for Denver,” Horton said. “The Eagles are probably going to be playing for a playoff spot and that will be a very difficult game for Denver to win.”

The Broncos end their season at home against the Chiefs.

“Denver just better win the games they should win,” Horton said. “If they stumble even once, I think they will be in trouble. They have games against Indianapolis, Philadelphia and the Giants that will probably be losses.”


San Diego:

San Diego's Schedule
The Chargers' next two games against Philadelphia and Denver could be critical for their chances of winning the division.

Week Date Opponent
10 Sun, Nov 15 Philadelphia
11 Sun, Nov 22 at Denver
12 Sun, Nov 29 Kansas City
13 Sun, Dec 6 at Cleveland
14 Sun, Dec 13 at Dallas
15 Sun, Dec 20 Cincinnati
16 Fri, Dec 25 at Tennessee
17 Sun, Jan 3 Washington

While Denver has to avoid a trap Sunday, the Chargers have to take care of business against the Eagles on Sunday before meeting Denver.

“That game in Denver won’t mean as much if the Chargers lose to the Eagles,” Horton said. “That can happen. Philadelphia is tough right now. The Chargers have to find a way to win that game and then they have to find a way to beat the Broncos. If the Chargers win the next two games, they really are in control of the division because their schedule is easier than Denver’s down the stretch.”

San Diego has two very winnable games after playing Denver. They play hostto Kansas City and then travel to Cleveland. However, the Chargers travel to Dallas on Dec. 13.

“I’m going to give San Diego a loss in that game,” Horton said. “That’s going to be tough.”

A pivotal game for San Diego is Dec. 20 when it plays host to Cincinnati. If the Chargers are still in the race in Week 15, they must win this game. The problem for San Diego is that the Bengals, currently 6-2, likely will be playing for something as well.

Making the game against the Bengals even more crucial is that Horton thinks the Chargers could be in trouble Christmas night at Tennessee.

“You can beat San Diego if you can run the ball,” Horton said. “Tennessee can run the ball and I think the Chargers could easily lose that game. That game worries me.”

The Chargers end the season at home against Washington. Thus, both teams end the season with a winnable home game. While this race has a chance to go to the wire, it will become more clear after the Nov. 22 showdown.

“That game has a chance to be nasty,” Horton said. “The winner should end up winning the division.”

The Joker
11-14-2009, 07:04 AM
I love how the lead has dropped from 3.5 games to 1 game.

Where'd that .5 go? We lose a game to San Diego behind closed doors on Thursday or something?

But yeah, beat San Diego at Invesco and I think we have the division. Lose and we're 50/50.

watermock
11-14-2009, 07:07 AM
Leave it up to burger bill to explain.

Rabb
11-14-2009, 07:40 AM
PIT's remaining tough games: CIN, BAL x 2
CIN's remaining tough games: @PIT, @MIN, @SD

the schedule favors PIT

I don't see how that favors Pitt when Cincy already beat them and the Ravens are their thorn every year no matter what

if anything, Cincy has the easier schedule there IMO

Gort
11-14-2009, 08:48 AM
I don't see how that favors Pitt when Cincy already beat them and the Ravens are their thorn every year no matter what

if anything, Cincy has the easier schedule there IMO

PIT gets CIN and BAL at home. they also play BAL away.
CIN has three tough road games. that's why PIT has the easier schedule. we've forgotten what home field advantage means here in DEN, but PIT still has that when they play at home.

HAT
11-14-2009, 10:16 AM
realistically, what the Broncos are playing for is the difference between the 4th playoff seed and the 5th playoff seed for the rest of this season.

let's pencil in INDY, NE, and PIT at #1 - #3.

)

Let's not.

Denver is 100% in that mix. Likely that Denver and Indy are both 9-3 heading into their 12/13 match-up. Sucks that Pitt has the tie-break over Denver but Denver has it over NE.

HEAV
11-14-2009, 10:37 AM
To win the West the Broncos have to beat the West. It's just that simple... Beat KC twice, beat the Raiders one more time and beat the Chargers.

That's how ant team wins their respective division. Sweep the teams in your Division and you win it.

BroncoMan4ever
11-15-2009, 12:03 AM
To win the West the Broncos have to beat the West. It's just that simple... Beat KC twice, beat the Raiders one more time and beat the Chargers.

That's how ant team wins their respective division. Sweep the teams in your Division and you win it.

agreed. if Denver wants this division they need to take it. they can't hope that at the end of the season SD just gives it away, they need to go to work and make it known, that Denver owns the West.

Rausch 2.0
11-15-2009, 12:27 AM
agreed. if Denver wants this division they need to take it. they can't hope that at the end of the season SD just gives it away, they need to go to work and make it known, that Denver owns the West.

Under Freddy the Chargers have always started poorly and finished strong.

If Denver wants the west they can't lay off late...

BroncoMan4ever
11-15-2009, 12:37 AM
Under Freddy the Chargers have always started poorly and finished strong.

If Denver wants the west they can't lay off late...

that is something that doesn't worry me as much about this regime like it did under Shanahan. this team seems to have a lot more discipline and veteran leadership than teams in the past have had.

Archer81
11-15-2009, 12:47 AM
We'll see.

Lets beat Washington first before we worry about SD.

:Broncos:

Rausch 2.0
11-15-2009, 01:41 AM
We'll see.

Lets beat Washington first before we worry about SD.

:Broncos:

If you lost to Washington there's a legitimate reason to worry about the future...