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Broncos_OTM
10-27-2009, 03:11 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/10276600/Cowboys-agree-to-6-year-extension-with-Ware Quote:The Dallas Cowboys and star defensive end DeMarcus Ware have agreed to a blockbuster six-year extension, FOXSports.com has learned. The deal will be worth nearly $13 million per season and approaching $40 million in guaranteed money

UberBroncoMan
10-27-2009, 04:18 AM
Yeah... Dumervil happens to peak on his contract year and we still have to pay Marshall, Kuper, Orton, and Scheffler. All five of these people are currently being paid close to rookie deals (Marshall is getting by far the most $ at a mere 2.2 mill).

We might only be able to keep 3 of these people. Sucks balls.

Drek
10-27-2009, 05:03 AM
Yeah... Dumervil happens to peak on his contract year and we still have to pay Marshall, Kuper, Orton, and Scheffler. All five of these people are currently being paid close to rookie deals (Marshall is getting by far the most $ at a mere 2.2 mill).

We might only be able to keep 3 of these people. Sucks balls.

Kuper and Scheffler aren't going to be market setting deals. Doom, Marshall, and Orton are all probably looking at good money, but Ware is a poor comp for Doom. James Harrison is a better comp and he won DPOY last year. Ware has been a beast for nearly half a decade now and is unquestionably the most consistently productive rush OLB in the league. He's not the benchmark for anyone else.

peacepipe
10-27-2009, 07:02 AM
Kuper and Scheffler aren't going to be market setting deals. Doom, Marshall, and Orton are all probably looking at good money, but Ware is a poor comp for Doom. James Harrison is a better comp and he won DPOY last year. Ware has been a beast for nearly half a decade now and is unquestionably the most consistently productive rush OLB in the league. He's not the benchmark for anyone else.

If it wasn't for an injury Harrison would not have been a starter. He may not have made the team & you think he's a better comp. to elvis. He had a combined 12.5 sacks combined from 2002-2007.

Dumervils #s are equivelent if not better than those of demarcus ware through their 1st 4 yrs. Ware has 53 sacks, dumervil will end somewhere in the 44-50 range by the end of his 4th season. Hell, Dumervil had to do it out of the 4-3.

Wares' contract set the bar for OLB throughout the NFL, Dumervil will be asking for at least that amt. He'll get it with us or someoneelse.

Elway777
10-27-2009, 07:14 AM
If Dumervil wants that much then the Broncos might have to let him walk. I would try and sign Dumervil for 6 year 42 million with 20 million signing bonus. I also might trade Marshall for 2 rounder and 4 rounder then go try and sign Vicent Jackson for about 6 million a year. Kuper sould cost about 4 million and franchise Scheffer for about 4 million. Orton should be signed for 3 year 18 million with 10 million signing bonus.

Drek
10-27-2009, 07:35 AM
If it wasn't for an injury Harrison would not have been a starter. He may not have made the team & you think he's a better comp. to elvis. He had a combined 12.5 sacks combined from 2002-2007.

Dumervils #s are equivelent if not better than those of demarcus ware through their 1st 4 yrs. Ware has 53 sacks, dumervil will end somewhere in the 44-50 range by the end of his 4th season. Hell, Dumervil had to do it out of the 4-3.

Wares' contract set the bar for OLB throughout the NFL, Dumervil will be asking for at least that amt. He'll get it with us or someoneelse.

No one in the entire world could possibly think that Dumervil should get paid more than Demarcus Ware.

If anything this sets a high water mark that Doom can't exceed. Dumervil was looking at a modest deal before this season and moving to a 3-4, he'll likely be an RFA next year unless some miracle happens with the CBA, and his best comp for signing a new deal off a single breakout season is James Harrison.

Doom is playing some great football right now, but if his agent asks for Suggs or Ware money then the Broncos should let him test the market. There isn't a team in the league that will pay him that kind of money.

Beantown Bronco
10-27-2009, 07:44 AM
We've been over this a thousand times, if not more.

Not one of these guys, not one, is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season unless something crazy happens in the next month with the CBA negotiations......which is only slightly more likely than me hitting Powerball in the near future.

All of these guys are property of the Broncos for the 2010 season, unless the Broncos let them go for a king's ransom (at least a first and a third rounder with the high tender, which costs pennies).

Drek
10-27-2009, 08:25 AM
We've been over this a thousand times, if not more.

Not one of these guys, not one, is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season unless something crazy happens in the next month with the CBA negotiations......which is only slightly more likely than me hitting Powerball in the near future.

All of these guys are property of the Broncos for the 2010 season, unless the Broncos let them go for a king's ransom (at least a first and a third rounder with the high tender, which costs pennies).

Exactly.

What I'm expecting is the following:

RFA tenders on Doom, Marshall, Orton, Kuper, and Scheffler.

Then new deals for Doom, Marshall, and Orton all in the same basic area of 6 years, $50-$55M with $20-$25M guaranteed. Not only do we hold the RFA tag leverage on them, thats respectable market value compared to what Harrison, Roddy White, and Matt Cassel (when you take out the difference between an RFA tag and the $14.7M he was guaranteed already) got on their new deals. The fact that you can offer our three young star players all basically the exact same deal also puts some peer pressure on them. No one wants to be the guy who says "I deserve more than this other star player".

Kuper and Scheffler are offered reasonable money deals, probably 4 or 5 year extensions worth around $4-$5M AAV. If they don't want to take them then play a year on the RFA tag and test the market after that.

peacepipe
10-27-2009, 12:24 PM
Exactly.

What I'm expecting is the following:

RFA tenders on Doom, Marshall, Orton, Kuper, and Scheffler.

Then new deals for Doom, Marshall, and Orton all in the same basic area of 6 years, $50-$55M with $20-$25M guaranteed. Not only do we hold the RFA tag leverage on them, thats respectable market value compared to what Harrison, Roddy White, and Matt Cassel (when you take out the difference between an RFA tag and the $14.7M he was guaranteed already) got on their new deals. The fact that you can offer our three young star players all basically the exact same deal also puts some peer pressure on them. No one wants to be the guy who says "I deserve more than this other star player".

Kuper and Scheffler are offered reasonable money deals, probably 4 or 5 year extensions worth around $4-$5M AAV. If they don't want to take them then play a year on the RFA tag and test the market after that.

No one wants to be the guy that brings down the market value for a given position either.

peacepipe
10-27-2009, 12:28 PM
No one in the entire world could possibly think that Dumervil should get paid more than Demarcus Ware.
If anything this sets a high water mark that Doom can't exceed. Dumervil was looking at a modest deal before this season and moving to a 3-4, he'll likely be an RFA next year unless some miracle happens with the CBA, and his best comp for signing a new deal off a single breakout season is James Harrison.

Doom is playing some great football right now, but if his agent asks for Suggs or Ware money then the Broncos should let him test the market. There isn't a team in the league that will pay him that kind of money.

No one!? Are you serious. Maybe he won't exceed it but he'll definetly match it. Either way a good hold out will usually outweight any leverage gained by RFA tag.

Mountain Bronco
10-27-2009, 12:31 PM
Doom is arguably better than Ware. He is having a better year his first year at the possition. Just saying that is probably his or his agents message they will send to the Broncos. **** Jerry Jones that stupid cock****er.

Master___Pain
10-27-2009, 12:42 PM
I don't see Scheffler getting big money. He's talented but receiving TEs like him are becoming more common with the number of college team using the spread O. I certainly would not slap a franchise tag on him as was suggested above.

TheReverend
10-27-2009, 12:52 PM
At Dum's current pace, he's definitely set to be making that kind of money.

However, the Cowboy's, much like the Redskins, actually seem to love paying people huge contracts. I look for Elvis to be reasonable and take 10-20% less than that and stay here.

anon
10-27-2009, 02:41 PM
This may be heresy around here (especially right now) but I'd like to see Elvis be consistent for an entire season and show up in every game before presuming he deserves a huge contract. He's in line for a very significant raise but I want to see more consistency over a season first.

Eldorado
10-27-2009, 02:43 PM
Burn him!!!

Elway777
10-27-2009, 03:34 PM
I don't see Scheffler getting big money. He's talented but receiving TEs like him are becoming more common with the number of college team using the spread O. I certainly would not slap a franchise tag on him as was suggested above.
The Franchise tag for a tight end is only 4 million . Gates only makes 3 million. This way the Broncos save money on paying signing bonus .

Master___Pain
10-27-2009, 03:42 PM
The Franchise tag for a tight end is only 4 million . Gates only makes 3 million. This way the Broncos save money on paying signing bonus .

Yeah, but Scheffler is not worth 4 million a year. He a decent TE. He's no All pro, and certainly not worthy of a franchise tag.

Atwater His Ass
10-27-2009, 04:16 PM
This may be heresy around here (especially right now) but I'd like to see Elvis be consistent for an entire season and show up in every game before presuming he deserves a huge contract. He's in line for a very significant raise but I want to see more consistency over a season first.

Thank you.

Doom will not be getting Ware type money. He will get paid, but not like a QB.

Atwater His Ass
10-27-2009, 04:19 PM
Yeah, but Scheffler is not worth 4 million a year. He a decent TE. He's no All pro, and certainly not worthy of a franchise tag.

You're taking whta Scheffler brings to the team for granted. There's not anyone else on the team we can split out wide and get either a safety or LB covering him. That's a 100% advantage to Scheffler and Orton.

Tony is more than worth a pidly $4 million tag for 1 season. That's peanuts, and Bowlen is more concerned about up front money (aka signing bonuses) then a yearly salary.

And it gives both sides more time to work out a long term deal. It's a win win situation in my mind.

Master___Pain
10-27-2009, 04:31 PM
You're taking whta Scheffler brings to the team for granted. There's not anyone else on the team we can split out wide and get either a safety or LB covering him. That's a 100% advantage to Scheffler and Orton.

Tony is more than worth a pidly $4 million tag for 1 season. That's peanuts, and Bowlen is more concerned about up front money (aka signing bonuses) then a yearly salary.

And it gives both sides more time to work out a long term deal. It's a win win situation in my mind.

All I'm saying is of all the guys to be re-signed, I think he's the least likely and that there are guys coming out of college that could fill his shoes pretty easily. Not a diss on Schef, but he's low man on the class of 2006 totem pole IMO.

Atwater His Ass
10-27-2009, 04:35 PM
Sure he's low man. But it's still peanuts to sign the guy really. No reason to take a flier on a rook that may or may not work out, when you have a guy that already knows what's going on.

I would think after franchising (if it came to that) if they can't work out a long term deal, you let him walk and move on.

But Scheff brings enough talent to the table that in my mind it's worth giving a best effort to sign him.

enjolras
10-27-2009, 05:09 PM
Thank you.

Doom will not be getting Ware type money. He will get paid, but not like a QB.

Ya.. he really worries me. He's having the type of season that leads to a big contract... but I'm still convinced that he's really the answer. He still has trouble detaching from blockers, and gets eaten up if he doesn't get the corner.

Don't get me wrong. I love what Doom is doing, but he's not really a physical player. I have to feel like that might eventually catch up with him.

snowspot66
10-27-2009, 05:16 PM
Lets just pay them and front load it all into the uncapped year. They may even take a discount if we give it to them upfront.

peacepipe
10-27-2009, 05:34 PM
He's going to get a big payday regardless,they franchise him he gets top 5 money, he goes to another team he gets #1 money.From cleveland,green bay & others that have switched to a 3-4 defense.

maher_tyler
10-27-2009, 07:47 PM
At Dum's current pace, he's definitely set to be making that kind of money.

However, the Cowboy's, much like the Redskins, actually seem to love paying people huge contracts. I look for Elvis to be reasonable and take 10-20% less than that and stay here.

Considering we're the team that took a chance when know one else would!

Beantown Bronco
10-28-2009, 07:22 AM
Let's try this again.

Guys, FORGET THE FRANCHISE TAG. Please, get it out of your head. It's not an option here because it doesn't apply to restricted free agents, which all these guys are going to be. You can only franchise tag UN-restricted free agents.

These guys, if not extended, will all get one year tender offers, which are completely different and MUCH cheaper.

Drek
10-28-2009, 07:54 AM
No one wants to be the guy that brings down the market value for a given position either.

And how is taking a top 5 contract at your position, comparable to what guys like James Harrison, Roddy White, etc. have signed, bringing down the market value?

All of our key FAs for next off-season have questions about them. Doom hasn't been consistent and only just now is moving to a 3-4. Even if he plays great over 16 games he's still not going to have the track record of guys like Suggs and Ware who have been sack monsters from nearly day one in the league from the 3-4 OLB position. Marhsall's off-field antics WILL cost him money, primarily in terms of up front bonuses. Orton is going to have one great season at the most to make his argument off of.

All of them will almost definitely be under an RFA tender, which means if they don't negotiate a new deal they get to play another season at around $2-$3M.

They'll jump at new deals as long as the new deals pay them a close proximity of fair market value. Top 5 money for your position is fair market value for anyone. Their agents know that top 5 money is hard to get period, even if you're a UDFA, and getting their clients to free agency while still in their early 30's, setting up for another big contract, is almost as important as getting a good first deal.

peacepipe
10-28-2009, 08:51 AM
And how is taking a top 5 contract at your position, comparable to what guys like James Harrison, Roddy White, etc. have signed, bringing down the market value?

All of our key FAs for next off-season have questions about them. Doom hasn't been consistent and only just now is moving to a 3-4. Even if he plays great over 16 games he's still not going to have the track record of guys like Suggs and Ware who have been sack monsters from nearly day one in the league from the 3-4 OLB position. Marhsall's off-field antics WILL cost him money, primarily in terms of up front bonuses. Orton is going to have one great season at the most to make his argument off of.

All of them will almost definitely be under an RFA tender, which means if they don't negotiate a new deal they get to play another season at around $2-$3M.

They'll jump at new deals as long as the new deals pay them a close proximity of fair market value. Top 5 money for your position is fair market value for anyone. Their agents know that top 5 money is hard to get period, even if you're a UDFA, and getting their clients to free agency while still in their early 30's, setting up for another big contract, is almost as important as getting a good first deal.
Lets compare their sack totals for their 1st 4 seasons
terrell suggs through his 1st 4 full seasons had 42 sacks.
elvis through 31/3 seasons has 36.5 & should easily surpass Suggs totals.
Demarcus Ware has 53 sacks through 4 seasons
elvis will be within 6-8 sacks from that total.He may even match that(unlikely).
Elvis is has put up the #s to secure a big contract.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 09:01 AM
If Dumervil wants that much then the Broncos might have to let him walk. I would try and sign Dumervil for 6 year 42 million with 20 million signing bonus. I also might trade Marshall for 2 rounder and 4 rounder then go try and sign Vicent Jackson for about 6 million a year. Kuper sould cost about 4 million and franchise Scheffer for about 4 million. Orton should be signed for 3 year 18 million with 10 million signing bonus.

Thankfully, you aren't running the front office. With the ridiculous low-balling you suggest, we wouldn't be able to retain any of these player. If you think we are going to sign Orton to a deal with a total value of $18 million when David Garrard got that amount in guaranteed money alone, you're absolutely nuts.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 09:09 AM
No one in the entire world could possibly think that Dumervil should get paid more than Demarcus Ware.

If anything this sets a high water mark that Doom can't exceed. Dumervil was looking at a modest deal before this season and moving to a 3-4, he'll likely be an RFA next year unless some miracle happens with the CBA, and his best comp for signing a new deal off a single breakout season is James Harrison.

Doom is playing some great football right now, but if his agent asks for Suggs or Ware money then the Broncos should let him test the market. There isn't a team in the league that will pay him that kind of money.

You're acting as if Dumervil is coming out of nowhere to have success. He had 8.5 sackes as a rookie, then upped that to 12.5 his second season. He only had 5 in 2008, true, but he's already doubled that total in only six games this season. He has been a consistent pass rusher all 4 of his seasons in the league. As someone pointed out, Harrison only totaled 12.5 sacks between 2002-2007 before his breakout year. That is not at all comparable to Doom. Ware is actually a great comp, as they will likely end up with very similar sack numbers over their first 4 seasons. You are correct that if no CBA is reached it does give us more leverage since he will be a RFA. And I wouldn't expect his deal to exceed Ware's, but it WILL be a deal in that neighborhood, whether we are giving him the money or someone else.

Drek
10-28-2009, 10:14 AM
Lets compare their sack totals for their 1st 4 seasons
terrell suggs through his 1st 4 full seasons had 42 sacks.
elvis through 31/3 seasons has 36.5 & should easily surpass Suggs totals.
Demarcus Ware has 53 sacks through 4 seasons
elvis will be within 6-8 sacks from that total.He may even match that(unlikely).
Elvis is has put up the #s to secure a big contract.

Except Suggs didn't sign a big new contract after his 4th season, he showed the ability to be a game changer for over six years before getting his new deal.

And Ware has been an elite player from almost day one in this league. 6-8 sacks over the course of four seasons is a big difference (especially since you're projecting another 8-10 sacks for Doom to reach that). Not to mention a 20 sack season just last year that Doom will have to match if he wants to even have a hope of being considered that same level of pass rusher.

More importantly, Suggs was looking at true FA or a franchise tag, not RFA, when he got his new deal last off-season. He had the Ravens over a barrel in every way possible including his DC moving to a new team that probably would have loved to pay him. He's also a three time pro-bowler and former DROY.

As for Ware, he plays in Dallas which obviously carries a higher profile. He's been to three consecutive pro-bowls, was a 2nd team All-Pro in '06, and a first team All-Pro the last two years. Dumervil hasn't made a single pro-bowl, even as an alternate.

I'm a big Dumervil fan. I said this off-season that he was going to blow up in this defense. But short of him setting the all time sack record, dominating in the playoffs, winning DPOY, and being a first team All-Pro and pro bowler his resume is a whole lot closer to James Harrison than Ware or Suggs. So will his leverage in negotiations when a new CBA isn't hammered out.

I honestly don't see how you guys think its somehow lowballing Dumervil to offer him a top 5 contract for his position. If Dallas offered to trade us Demarcus Ware for Elvis Dumervil right now you get bet your ass the FO would take it, without hesitation. They'd do the same for Terrell Suggs too. Doom is looking real good but those guys have been taking over games from the 3-4 OLB position for the duration of their careers. Doom will get paid very well, but it won't be franchise QB money like Ware just got. If that is what it takes for him to take an extension he's probably not going to be a Denver Bronco after 2010.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 10:31 AM
Drek, your problem is that you talk about deals the way you think they ought to be rather than looking at the reality of the way the NFL market works. When we were discussing Orton, you were given four or five examples of QBs comparable to Orton and the deals they got. Then you dismissed them as aberrations where their teams overpayed. Well, it's obviously NOT an aberration if their are multiple examples. In fact, it may actually help Orton at the bargaining table that some of those QBs haven't faired as well as hoped. I am sure his agents will go to the negotiating table and say something like, "Look, Matt Cassel and Jake Delhomme got x amount of dollars last offseason. Kyle Orton is at LEAST as good as those guys. Let's start with those deals and see what we can work out." Like it or not, NFL player salaries are always on an upward arc. Agents are always looking to trump previous deals and usually succeed. Whether or not you believe KC and Carolina overpayed for their QBs, those deals nevertheless set a precedent that agents will use as a reference point. Same thing with Doom. Whether you think Doom is as good as Ware or Suggs is irrelevant; the difference in production is not that significant. No CBA helps, certainly, and my save us a couple million, but at the end of the day Doom's deal WILL fall somewhere in the neighborhood of what Suggs and Ware got. There are always teams willing to throw money at pass rushers and overpay...always. Either we will be paying Doom that money or someone else will. That's just the nature of NFL salaries...always on the upward arc.

Mountain Bronco
10-28-2009, 10:42 AM
I don't know where this Doom has to prove it crap comes from. His numbers will be better than Suggs, and comparable to Ware. What more does he need to prove? The reality of the NFL is he will get a top 5 money offer from someone. It is that simple.

peacepipe
10-28-2009, 11:19 AM
Drek, your problem is that you talk about deals the way you think they ought to be rather than looking at the reality of the way the NFL market works. When we were discussing Orton, you were given four or five examples of QBs comparable to Orton and the deals they got. Then you dismissed them as aberrations where their teams overpayed. Well, it's obviously NOT an aberration if their are multiple examples. In fact, it may actually help Orton at the bargaining table that some of those QBs haven't faired as well as hoped. I am sure his agents will go to the negotiating table and say something like, "Look, Matt Cassel and Jake Delhomme got x amount of dollars last offseason. Kyle Orton is at LEAST as good as those guys. Let's start with those deals and see what we can work out." Like it or not, NFL player salaries are always on an upward arc. Agents are always looking to trump previous deals and usually succeed. Whether or not you believe KC and Carolina overpayed for their QBs, those deals nevertheless set a precedent that agents will use as a reference point. Same thing with Doom. Whether you think Doom is as good as Ware or Suggs is irrelevant; the difference in production is not that significant. No CBA helps, certainly, and my save us a couple million, but at the end of the day Doom's deal WILL fall somewhere in the neighborhood of what Suggs and Ware got. There are always teams willing to throw money at pass rushers and overpay...always. Either we will be paying Doom that money or someone else will. That's just the nature of NFL salaries...always on the upward arc.

well said.

Elway777
10-28-2009, 12:22 PM
He Dumervil wants Suggs or Ware type money then the Broncos will looking at a outside linebacker with the first pick of Draft or finally giving Moss a shot at starting.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 12:26 PM
He Dumervil wants Suggs or Ware type money then the Broncos will looking at a outside linebacker with the first pick of Draft or finally giving Moss a shot at starting.

And we will be back to square one with regards to our pass rush. Why are you always so eager to low-ball players? We'd never sign anybody if we offered them the type of money you usually suggest.

Elway777
10-28-2009, 12:34 PM
And we will be back to square one with regards to our pass rush. Why are you always so eager to low-ball players? We'd never sign anybody if we offered them the type of money you usually suggest. I don't think the Broncos are going be over paying people because of the economy and their financial situation.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 12:45 PM
I don't think the Broncos are going be over paying people because of the economy and their financial situation.

Well, we have to field a team. You are not going to be able to sign anybody if you low-ball people. At some point you have to be willing to pay what the market dictates if you want to be competitve.

cutthemdown
10-28-2009, 12:45 PM
I don't see Scheffler getting big money. He's talented but receiving TEs like him are becoming more common with the number of college team using the spread O. I certainly would not slap a franchise tag on him as was suggested above.

Mcdaniels puts a premium on experienced dbacks, WR, pass rushers, but not really pass catching TE. Like you said Mcdaniels may feel keeping Graham more important.

I think doom will be kept and made the center piece of the broncos pass rush for yrs to come.

cutthemdown
10-28-2009, 12:48 PM
Ayers and doom compliment each other well. One big mauler, the other a quick agile raptor like player.

The offense doesn't know where they will line up. You could be looking at a power player, or you could be looking at pure speed. Tough for an outside blocker to prepare for both. It keeps TE busy and backs wary that is for sure.

Watch the rbs when broncos are blitzing, they don't know if its coming outside or inside. Makes for players not reacting quickly and qbs getting sacked.

Even LT was out there whiffing on inside rushers because he was caught worrying about doom.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 12:50 PM
Mcdaniels puts a premium on experienced dbacks, WR, pass rushers, but not really pass catching TE. Like you said Mcdaniels may feel keeping Graham more important.

I think doom will be kept and made the center piece of the broncos pass rush for yrs to come.

It's going to be interesting to see how McD handles the upcoming FA period. We have three guys inline for major paydays (Doom, Orton, and Marshall) and two others who will be getting nice money relative to their position (Kuper and Scheffler). If he follows the NE model, he will be reluctant to hand out too many big contracts. If the CBA were in play, I'd expect us to lose at least a couple of the above five, but it may be possible to keep them all with RFA tags and no cap to worry about.

Drek
10-28-2009, 01:40 PM
Drek, your problem is that you talk about deals the way you think they ought to be rather than looking at the reality of the way the NFL market works.
No, I'm thinking about it from the perspective of how teams and agents actually negotiate.

When we were discussing Orton, you were given four or five examples of QBs comparable to Orton and the deals they got. Then you dismissed them as aberrations where their teams overpayed. Well, it's obviously NOT an aberration if their are multiple examples. In fact, it may actually help Orton at the bargaining table that some of those QBs haven't faired as well as hoped. I am sure his agents will go to the negotiating table and say something like, "Look, Matt Cassel and Jake Delhomme got x amount of dollars last offseason. Kyle Orton is at LEAST as good as those guys. Let's start with those deals and see what we can work out."
An agent should be sued for negligence if he brings up Jake Delhomme's deal when negotiating a QB contract. Much like in baseball where Zito's deal set a new high water mark for mediocre pitching, and the entire league basically laughed at it for several years running with no comparable deals given out, Jake Delhomme's deal is a laugher in NFL circles. No one is going to listen to any agent who tries to use that as a measuring stick.

David Garrard? Maybe, but lets see if Orton goes the whole season with only 3 picks and a QB rating over 100. If he does then sure, something of a game changer there. And honestly, David Garrard's deal is incredibly team friendly. High AAV sure, but low guaranteed dollars. That was a team saying "you've only had one great year, we're going to protect ourselves". I expect the Broncos to offer Orton more guaranteed but in return he'll be expected to take a lower AAV for an easier cap number.

Cassel? Great comp, except that Orton will have a $2-$3M RFA tag while Cassel had a $14.7M franchise tag. Cassel was guaranteed nearly as much money in the '09 season alone as David Garrard got in his entire deal ($18M). The Chiefs put themselves in a bad spot contract-wise there and so Cassel got a better deal than he would have otherwise.

Like it or not, NFL player salaries are always on an upward arc. Agents are always looking to trump previous deals and usually succeed.
Sure didn't in baseball last year, and short of a few big overpays this off-season the NFL didn't go real crazy either. Also 2010 might take away the salary cap, but it also takes away the salary floor. Smaller market out of contention teams no longer need to meet a financial minimum and so will be even more reticent to spend in FA.

Tough economies tend to slow down those arcs. Its why Vlad Guerrero and JD Drew got paid the same amount the last few years. One signed in a slight economic lull, the other in an economic upswing. We're now in a big lull.

Whether or not you believe KC and Carolina overpayed for their QBs, those deals nevertheless set a precedent that agents will use as a reference point. Same thing with Doom. Whether you think Doom is as good as Ware or Suggs is irrelevant; the difference in production is not that significant.
But it is significant. Where are Doom's pro-bowl appearances, All-Pro nominations, and DROY awards? Those headline awards are what makes for huge deals, not just abstract numbers on the field with no context. That is how contracts are negotiated, and if Doom doesn't have that kind of punctuation then he's much less marketable.

No CBA helps, certainly, and my save us a couple million, but at the end of the day Doom's deal WILL fall somewhere in the neighborhood of what Suggs and Ware got. There are always teams willing to throw money at pass rushers and overpay...always. Either we will be paying Doom that money or someone else will. That's just the nature of NFL salaries...always on the upward arc.
Those teams won't be able to make offers to Doom, so he'll either take what we offer or hope to have another standout season, at which point we can still tag him. So no, either Doom takes the money the Broncos offer or he goes season to season through 2010 at minimum, very possibly through 2011.

This is why James Harrison's contract plus a small bump is a great fit for Doom. Something like 6 years, $52-$55M with $20-$25M guaranteed. That would make him the 3rd highest paid OLB in the NFL, with an AAV higher than what he could expect even as a franchise tagged player, and nearly double what he'd get over the next two years if he tries to play out an RFA and then franchise tag.

His agent's job isn't to get him Ware/Suggs money. His agent's job is to get the deal done this off-season for the upper end of those numbers, with as much front loaded money as possible, so that his client is closer to his next pay day in his early 30's.

Same with Brandon Marshall. If he didn't have the off-field questions he'd definitely be the #2 highest paid WR behind only Fitzgerald. But he does and that will bring down his AAV. As a result he's probably looking at a similar deal to Doom's, which will make him the 2nd or 3rd highest paid WR depending on how high he gets within that range.

This FO won't pay top dollar for the position to any of these guys. None of them have the resumes of the guys who are the current #1's, pretty much all of whom have signed recent deals (within the last calendar year). At the same time they'll have the leverage with RFA tenders and franchise tags to control them all for one more season and at least one of them for two if need be. Their agents meanwhile are obviously going to be thinking about getting their clients through their first big money deal at an age where a second is a distinct possibility. Doom, Marshall, and Orton are all three young enough where signing a 4-6 year deal this off-season puts them in position to get another fat contract in their early 30's. Putting it off for a year or two only puts that second deal further at risk.

Scott Boras is the master at this in baseball, and works his magic through something the NFL doesn't have, player opt outs. But he's constantly showing his clients the benefits of planning for that second deal well in advance. In the NFL this can be controlled with massive back end years on contracts, forcing a team to renegotiate or release your client.

I'm not saying the Broncos are going to low ball these guys with $5-6M AAV offers. They'll likely get offers with AAVs above what a franchise tag would even pay them. But none of them are viewed as the singular premiere player at their respective positions and so a top 5 money deal, while under an RFA tender, is the best an agent can hope to accomplish.

BroncoInferno
10-28-2009, 02:02 PM
Drek, using baseball and Barry Zito as an argument for how the NFL FA markets works simply does not wash. They are two totally different types of markets. You are a savvy fan....surely you've followed the FA market over the years and seen time and again pass rushers with marginal resumes get paid well above what their impact on the field actually is (Reggie Hayward, for example). No matter how many times it blows up in a teams face, someone is always willing to throw cash at pass rushers in hope of a quick fix. You say other teams can't bid on Dumervil. You're wrong. They can, they just have to be willing to fork over 1st and 3rd rounders in exchange. Do you honestly believe there won't be at least one team willing to forfeit those picks for a proven pass rusher rather than rolling the dice on a draft pcik? Not one? C'mon now. I mean, The Lions got a 1st, 3rd and 5th for Roy Williams, an underachieving receiver. You can call that an aberration, but it only takes ONE team to make it happen. I am sure you are aware of the fact that pass rushers are second only to QBs in terms of their market value. There WILL be at least a couple of teams willing to bid on Dumervil even with the RFA tag, and that will drive up the bidding.

As far as Orton goes, you can say what you want about the Delhomme deal, but it DOES set a precedent that agents will use as a negiotiating reference point. Baseball and Barry Zito does not have a thing to do with it. Give me NFL example of something like that happening. I could see Orton taking a hometown discount a la Brady because successful QBs rarely leave their current team barring unusual circumstances, but I wouldn't count on that from Doom.

Drek
10-28-2009, 02:56 PM
Drek, using baseball and Barry Zito as an argument for how the NFL FA markets works simply does not wash. They are two totally different types of markets. You are a savvy fan....surely you've followed the FA market over the years and seen time and again pass rushers with marginal resumes get paid well above what their impact on the field actually is (Reggie Hayward, for example). No matter how many times it blows up in a teams face, someone is always willing to throw cash at pass rushers in hope of a quick fix. You say other teams can't bid on Dumervil. You're wrong. They can, they just have to be willing to fork over 1st and 3rd rounders in exchange. Do you honestly believe there won't be at least one team willing to forfeit those picks for a proven pass rusher rather than rolling the dice on a draft pcik? Not one? C'mon now. I mean, The Lions got a 1st, 3rd and 5th for Roy Williams, an underachieving receiver. You can call that an aberration, but it only takes ONE team to make it happen. I am sure you are aware of the fact that pass rushers are second only to QBs in terms of their market value. There WILL be at least a couple of teams willing to bid on Dumervil even with the RFA tag, and that will drive up the bidding.
If we're resigning Dumervil he shouldn't be talking to other teams because the extension will be done before free agency opens. Same with Marshall. If they insist on testing the market then you let them walk, that simple.

Maybe some team will be willing to grossly overpay for them. At that point we just take the 1st and 3rd rounders and be happy with it. I'd be surprised if there are many teams willing to throw huge FA money out there for pass rushing OLBs myself. Washington won't pursue Doom, he's proven his obvious superiority in the 3-4. Dallas just extended Ware, they don't need another weak side pass rusher. The Jets have Calvin Pace on a fat deal and Vernon Ghoston on a top 5 rookie contract, doubt they want to commit more money when their pass rush is pretty solid as it is. The Patriots value draft picks too highly to give up that much for one guy. So where is the big money team that will top Ware's deal? You can basically eliminate every playoff team from the list because in an uncapped year teams who make the playoffs are restricted in FA spending, they can only bring in an equal dollar amount to what they're letting walk. How many playoff teams will have ~$10M in contracts coming free that they can spend on just one guy, and still field as complete a team as they're used to?

I just don't see the huge money market out there.

Marshall maybe, but his off-field antics the last few years, coupled with needing to give a big deal along with a 1st and 3rd? I don't see teams killing themselves to make him the highest paid WR in the NFL.

But again, if these guys want to test FA they can take that risk, and we can match any deal that isn't stuffed with a poison pill.

As far as Orton goes, you can say what you want about the Delhomme deal, but it DOES set a precedent that agents will use as a negiotiating reference point. Baseball and Barry Zito does not have a thing to do with it. Give me NFL example of something like that happening. I could see Orton taking a hometown discount a la Brady because successful QBs rarely leave their current team barring unusual circumstances, but I wouldn't count on that from Doom.
Its the exact same situation from the perspective of contract negotiation. Teams didn't suddenly start treating Nate Clements' deal with San Francisco as the gold standard for CBs. Asante Samuel and Namdi Asomougha have both sides contracts with less total value and less guaranteed money than what Clements got from San Francisco, because everyone knew it was a horrible deal basically the day it was signed. Darryl Gardner's deal here didn't suddenly start setting the market for DTs, it was just viewed as a really bad signing. Jordan Gross, one of the best OTs in the NFL, only got $3M total and $0.5M guaranteed over Jake Long's rookie contract nearly a full year after Long was drafted, and Gross' deal is for six years while Long's is only for five. Or how about Adam Archuleta? Six year, $30M deal with $10M in guarantees back in 2006. Benched mid-season, cut the next off-season. Troy Polamalu and Adrian Wilson are obviously vastly better players and they both just signed deals this past off-season worth only a million or so more per year than what Archuleta got. He didn't set a new pay scale for safeties by any means.

It happens in the NFL all the time. It is most often avoided because a lot of guys understand how much their success depends on where they play and who they play with. As long as you put up fair market value the vast majority of players will sign, take the guaranteed cash, and not have to risk going somewhere to flop massively. Suggs could have gotten more if he tested the market. Ware probably could have too. Ray Lewis considered it and avoided doing so at the last minute this past off-season. Polamalu and Wilson both probably could have played out this last year and each one walk into a record setting deal for a safety, bringing down near elite corner back money. They both passed.

Most NFL players aren't all looking for the new highest contract for their position, they just want a respectable offer and the security that comes with it.

But if Doom, Marshall, Orton, etc. do want every last dollar they can squeeze out? They won't be Broncos for very long, simple as that. This team isn't going to give out contracts like that. Guys will get a reasonable offer for their skills, minus a modest hometown discount. If they don't want it then they aren't wanted here. That is how Belichick has treated all his FAs and that is how McDaniels will treat ours. You take the deal offered and you're a favorite son. Don't and you could find yourself playing the twilight of your career in Oakland, complaining that you can't beat a high school team.

peacepipe
10-28-2009, 03:46 PM
Maybe some team will be willing to grossly overpay for them


No one is saying grossly overpay him,but the market has been set. Doom & his agent will be looking to cash in especially considering that he's outplayed his current contract. This "home town discount" is BS,These owners don't hesistate to cut players. I agree with you on one thing he'll get paid,be it here or somewhereelse.