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Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:03 PM
I love it, personally. Now, I realize that betting lines have nothing to do with how good teams are, but more about how good people THINK teams are, so they can get folks to actually bet on games. But it goes to show you, most folks still think the Broncos are frauds.

Good. Keep thinking that. I hope we grow a chip on our shoulder's that won't go away anytime soon.

Favored by 3.5 (.5 points). A 3-3 team over a 6-0 team. Gotta love it. :wiggle:

Rohirrim
10-26-2009, 01:04 PM
We don't have a chance.

Rock Chalk
10-26-2009, 01:05 PM
I have come to accept the fact that Vegas still hates us and we will be dogs in every game that is against a team with a .500 record or better.

Man-Goblin
10-26-2009, 01:06 PM
Right where I thought it would be. Ironically, Vegas is getting killed this year because the favorites keep covering, but the Broncos are 5-0 as underdogs.

Garcia Bronco
10-26-2009, 01:07 PM
3.5 is .5 short of a push. Home team get 3 points. They will be tough. But at 3.5....I'd take that bet.

Baba Booey
10-26-2009, 01:09 PM
"The press seems to think that we'd save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give 'em all a nice big ****burger to eat!"

-Lou Brown

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:11 PM
Yes, but how many times do you seen an unbeaten team even get a push, against a 3-3 team. It doesn't happen often. I guess they favor the best 3-3 team in the universe against the worst 6-0 team in the galaxy or something like that. I don't mind at all. Slap that line up in the locker room though McD!

Gort
10-26-2009, 01:11 PM
i've been peeking at a Ravens forum. most of them think the Ravens beating the Broncos is a near certainty and are more worried about PIT, CIN, and IND down the road. very few think Denver or Orton is for real and most of them think that the only reason BAL isn't 6-0 is because they are not playing to their potential or that the refs jobbed them. the consider their season to be on the line for this game and they assume that the Ravens will simply come out and manhandle the Broncos.

a bunch of asshats. all of them.

Peoples Champ
10-26-2009, 01:14 PM
I love it, we havent been favored in our last couple games.

barryr
10-26-2009, 01:14 PM
It will be the Broncos toughest game yet. The Ravens have already lost 1 home game and they don't usually lose many of them, so the Broncos will have to play even better to get this win.

Bronco Boy
10-26-2009, 01:17 PM
I would guess this line moves pretty quick the other way over the course of the week.

underrated29
10-26-2009, 01:18 PM
It comes to two things. Shutting down ray badass rice. And keeping orton upright with time.

If we do those, we got this. Their corners blow and dont stand a chance against our arsenal. But their LB and DL is amazing. As long as we keep them off Kyle. We should be able to go for 300+ in the air.

Foxworth is in deep trouble.

bronco militia
10-26-2009, 01:22 PM
point spreads are not a sign of disrespect.....

it's about making money

idiots

orangemonkey
10-26-2009, 01:25 PM
It will be the Broncos toughest game yet. The Ravens have already lost 1 home game and they don't usually lose many of them, so the Broncos will have to play even better to get this win.

I agree. The Ravens/Steelers obviously the best all-around D's we've faced. Orton and Broncos O will definitely be tested.

WolfpackGuy
10-26-2009, 01:29 PM
Ravens corners and wide receivers are trash.

Keeping/not keeping Ray Rice under control will decide this game.

bronco militia
10-26-2009, 01:29 PM
the ravens defense is overated.


http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:29 PM
point spreads are not a sign of disrespect.....

it's about making money

idiots

Nonsense.. it's absolutely about respect, in a roundabout way. They place the lines at a point where people will feel compelled to bet on the games. They clearly expect that the general public (out of Denver) does NOT respect the Broncos, at least not for their record. If they did, the line would be much higher. An unbeaten team that has already beaten the vaunted Pats?

Like I said, I think the majority of people (outside of Denver) still consider us a fluke.

bronco militia
10-26-2009, 01:30 PM
Nonsense.. it's absolutely about respect, in a roundabout way.
.

ummm what? LOL

anyway, if more money moves to denver this week, the spread will drop

FYi, the broncos are 6-0 vs the spread this year

OBF1
10-26-2009, 01:30 PM
Playing a tough Baltimore team at home is not disrespectful when they have to lay -3.5

Like was mentioned before, home teams give 3 points, so basically this is a push game and until we prove we can beat them at home the line sounds fair.

OBF1
10-26-2009, 01:33 PM
Nonsense.. it's absolutely about respect, in a roundabout way. They place the lines at a point where people will feel compelled to bet on the games. They clearly expect that the general public (out of Denver) does NOT respect the Broncos, at least not for their record. If they did, the line would be much higher. An unbeaten team that has already beaten the vaunted Pats?

Like I said, I think the majority of people (outside of Denver) still consider us a fluke.

If the line is so bad why not go ahead and put a 2nd mortgage on your home and place it on the Bronco's to win. Do a buy up and take the Bronco's even, you will make enough money to cover your ass for years to come.

But remember, every football fan in the world thought that the Eagles were going to pound the faiders into submission in week 6.

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:36 PM
If I were a rich man, I would. Had I done it the last 6 games, I'd be rich indeed, since we've covered every spread to this point. Yea yea.. any given Sunday... I'm just saying, I hope this sort of thing gets under the skin of the players.

Bronco Warrior
10-26-2009, 01:37 PM
Odds are a calculated expectation of a winner and by atleast X amount of points... ie the spread. There is no way it doesn't equate to "respect"! If odds-makers respected us as a team versus a 3-3 Ravens team then we wouldn't be dogs in this one! I'll take it though...Josh and Orton's record versus Vegas 6-0! 6 times underdogs, 6 times winners! Keep those picks coming!!

TailgateNut
10-26-2009, 01:41 PM
Odds are a calculated expectation of a winner and by atleast X amount of points... ie the spread. There is no way it doesn't equate to "respect"! If odds-makers respected us as a team versus a 3-3 Ravens team then we wouldn't be dogs in this one! I'll take it though...Josh and Orton's record versus Vegas 6-0! 6 times underdogs, 6 times winners! Keep those picks coming!!

Wow! That should be headline material.:spit:

Bronco Warrior
10-26-2009, 01:41 PM
A Push? We are less than even with a 3-3 team who lost to a team we beat handily in NE and barely beat a team we asswhipped in San Diego! That is disrespect...or their odds calculator in broken! :D

cutthemdown
10-26-2009, 01:42 PM
I love it, personally. Now, I realize that betting lines have nothing to do with how good teams are, but more about how good people THINK teams are, so they can get folks to actually bet on games. But it goes to show you, most folks still think the Broncos are frauds.

Good. Keep thinking that. I hope we grow a chip on our shoulder's that won't go away anytime soon.

Favored by 3.5 (.5 points). A 3-3 team over a 6-0 team. Gotta love it. :wiggle:

nope the betting line is what vegas thinks they can make the money as even as possible. They make money of the juice.

Trust me being a true handicapper is one of the most sought after jobs in vegas. These dudes know sports. Had the priviledge of throwing a few back with a guy that only worked for the handicapper. They do exhaustive research on what they think score will be. Then they look at how that team plays at home, how the other team is on road, and usually bump 1 1/2 to 3 points based on whose at home.

They aren't dissin Broncos. They only feel making Broncos an underdog brings out the action on them early. Then the late money probably on the ravens.

If they get all the action on on team, they will lay off some of it at another casino. Honestly these guys are the masters, being one of them would be a really pimp job.

Managing a sportsbook got be a really hard job.

Bronco Warrior
10-26-2009, 01:42 PM
Wow! That should be headline material.:spit:

Just stating the painfully obvious for those who think that odds and respected are mutually exclusive ;)

TailgateNut
10-26-2009, 01:44 PM
Just stating the painfully obvious for those who think that odds and respected are mutually exclusive ;)

Slow much?

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:44 PM
I agree they know what they are doing.. but... the last 6 weeks.. the Broncos have covered the final spread each time. Expected even by those experts? I don't think so.. unless they enjoy losing money.

OBF1
10-26-2009, 01:46 PM
Remember.... Bronco Warrior INVENTED the line. nuff said

bronco militia
10-26-2009, 01:48 PM
I agree they know what they are doing.. but... the last 6 weeks.. the Broncos have covered the final spread each time. Expected even by those experts? I don't think so.. unless they enjoy losing money.

they don't lose as much money as you hope

TailgateNut
10-26-2009, 01:49 PM
Remember.... Bronco Warrior INVENTED the line. nuff said


When I got on the mane last night and saw the "DUDE" thread, I couldn't stop laughing. Then I went to the link and just about lost it.

This guy is a "winner". :rofl:

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 01:51 PM
they don't lose as much money as you hope

They probably lose more in a day than I make in a year, and make more in a week than I'll make in my life. I effing hate them. Just saying...

broncocalijohn
10-26-2009, 02:00 PM
I love it, personally. Now, I realize that betting lines have nothing to do with how good teams are, but more about how good people THINK teams are, so they can get folks to actually bet on games. But it goes to show you, most folks still think the Broncos are frauds.

Good. Keep thinking that. I hope we grow a chip on our shoulder's that won't go away anytime soon.

Favored by 3.5 (.5 points). A 3-3 team over a 6-0 team. Gotta love it. :wiggle:

this is how my dad made a few extra $ in 1977 when he knew how good the team was going to be compared to 1976.

Archer81
10-26-2009, 02:11 PM
So the Ravens are favored to win at home...good for them. They are gonna be sad lil monkeys come monday morning.

:Broncos:

*Edit* Nothing racial was intended by the use of monkey.

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 02:12 PM
this is how my dad made a few extra $ in 1977 when he knew how good the team was going to be compared to 1976.

That reminds me of that deal a local TV shop made that year. At the start of the year, they offered an HD TV deal, that went: No payments until after the SB. If the Broncos win the SB, you don't have to pay for the TV, it's yours!

Needless to say... they lost a lot of money on that deal. :yayaya:

Que
10-26-2009, 02:12 PM
We don't have a chance.

We are totally screwed. Our only hope is that Ray's will get a little too crazy with his pregame dance and will attempt to dry hump Ed Reed's leg. In his ferocity, he will injure Reed's femur who will fall into Flacco and cause a lower body contusion. Then and only then will we stand a chance or losing by 21.

Rabb
10-26-2009, 02:13 PM
Slow much?

in his defense after he played for the Ravens, he managed a sports book

:wiggle:

Kaylore
10-26-2009, 02:17 PM
point spreads are not a sign of disrespect.....

it's about making money

idiots

Thank you. This is more about Vegas cashing in on the rest of America not believing. It's not a "Vegas hates us!" thing.

BroncoFanDoug
10-26-2009, 02:19 PM
point spreads are not a sign of disrespect.....

it's about making money

idiots

It is not a sign fo disrespect by Las Vegas - they don't care! It is however a sign of disrespect by the gambling public.

Hogan11
10-26-2009, 02:19 PM
I love it, personally. Now, I realize that betting lines have nothing to do with how good teams are, but more about how good people THINK teams are, so they can get folks to actually bet on games. But it goes to show you, most folks still think the Broncos are frauds.

http://www.affordablehousinginstitute.org/blogs/us/gomer_pyle_surprise.jpg

"Surprise surprise surprise!!!!"

Kaylore
10-26-2009, 02:20 PM
Odds are a calculated expectation of a winner and by atleast X amount of points... ie the spread. There is no way it doesn't equate to "respect"! If odds-makers respected us as a team versus a 3-3 Ravens team then we wouldn't be dogs in this one! I'll take it though...Josh and Orton's record versus Vegas 6-0! 6 times underdogs, 6 times winners! Keep those picks coming!!

False. They are calculated against how they think people will bet and while the expected winner is factored in, they are trying to set a stage for betting to offset how people cash in. This why as people bet heavily on one team you'll see the spread shift during the week as casinos try and recoup possible expected losses. If it was really purely mathematical, the spread wouldn't shift throughout the week based on how people were betting. Vegas always sets the spread in a way where they (Vegas) is favored to make money on the betting.

Mediator12
10-26-2009, 02:27 PM
False. They are calculated against how they think people will bet and while the expected winner is factored in, they are trying to set a stage for betting to offset how people cash in. This why as people bet heavily on one team you'll see the spread shift during the week as casinos try and recoup possible expected losses. If it was really purely mathematical, the spread wouldn't shift throughout the week based on how people were betting. Vegas always sets the spread in a way where they (Vegas) is favored to make money on the betting.

AND, they really make money on the TOTAL amount bet. SO, it behooves them to make controversial odds that get people to bet MORE.

The psychological aspects can NOT be dismissed when it comes to Vegas making money....

Old Dude
10-26-2009, 02:27 PM
Denver has never beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. (zip for 3, including 12/31/00 playoff loss.)

However, it's been six years since the last time the Ravens hosted the game.

UberBroncoMan
10-26-2009, 02:32 PM
Statistically our chance of losing a game increases over time.

Their LT is back from injury (they were not allowing many sacks when he was active and Gorin was at RT).

They are 2-1 at home with the 1 loss being a nail biter to the Bengals.

Thy also have a quality screen option with Rice, who will be the hardest one we've played all season due to his speed and difficulty to tackle. They also have a great TE and decent (not amazing) WR options.

I'm not surprised we're not favorites.

I doubt we will be vs Pitt the following week either... after all they are coming off a Bye.

Archer81
10-26-2009, 02:32 PM
Denver has never beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. (zip for 3, including 12/31/00 playoff loss.)

However, it's been six years since the last time the Ravens hosted the game.


Jeebis...6 years...first year of the plummer experiment...


:Broncos:

Kaylore
10-26-2009, 02:32 PM
Denver has never beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. (zip for 3, including 12/31/00 playoff loss.)

However, it's been six years since the last time the Ravens hosted the game.

We've won the last two, but both of those were at home. I think it takes away the "the Ravens own us" thing a bit, but going in there after they're coming off a bye is going to be pretty hard. Especially since if they have to win to keep contention in that division.

DenverBrit
10-26-2009, 02:36 PM
3-1/2 points is basically an opening push, it will be interesting to see where the line goes.

Respect?

Vegas respects the dollar, they don't care about team respect, nor should they, they care about even betting and the vig.

bronco militia
10-26-2009, 02:39 PM
Jeebis...6 years...first year of the plummer experiment...


:Broncos:


Danny Kanell started and it was John Mobley's last game in the NFL

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 02:44 PM
http://www.affordablehousinginstitute.org/blogs/us/gomer_pyle_surprise.jpg

"Surprise surprise surprise!!!!"

A few years back when I used to come here, the board was full of some good folks. And except for the trolls that would visit, the board-members were pretty cool with each other.

Now, there are plenty of people here that act like dicks. There a particular reason for this? Love rubbing your nose into crap, love to demean and ridicule the other members.. what the hell happened to this board? It's like it's evolving into one of those great Raider boards where everyone acts like they are tough-****, know-it-alls about everything.

No skin off my back honestly, but I may start to visit other sites, I don't feel the need to hang out where people feel the need to belittle others to pass the time.

Broncos4tw
10-26-2009, 02:46 PM
Denver has never beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. (zip for 3, including 12/31/00 playoff loss.)

However, it's been six years since the last time the Ravens hosted the game.

I was actually worried about this game, since we've historically had issues beating them in the past. But after a bit of thought, both teams are so different from the past teams, I don't think it matters. I'm more worried about Pitts now, and Colts, than anyone else.

Bronco Warrior
10-26-2009, 02:46 PM
If odds weren't based on expectation of outcome nobody would trust them and wouldn't bet based on them. The oddsmakers have to be right most ogf the time to be viable as a gambling success predicter. Points give a better a margin for error ie I can take Denver to win or lose by three or less. No matter what you say it is still a expectation of outcome. And if Vegas oddsmakers pic us get beat by 4 points or more by a 3-3 team there is no way it isn't a slight!. The only time the spread changes..it isn't us getting more respect, it's the public putting too much money one side or the other...and they are trying to encourage a balance in their favor. Opening spread is what the gambling gods really think! And we have gotten no respect all year...and we keep winning..so I'll take it!

Soul-Bronco
10-26-2009, 02:49 PM
i think mcdainels has been saving some deep pass plays for this game. the ravens are going to be studying alot of film that shows orton going short. Great time to get the running game going then fake the short pass and go deep!

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 02:51 PM
Well, I don't care too much about who's favored as long as the opposition looks exhausted and beaten down after the closing whistle. Have that vacant look in their eyes, that "WTF happened?" look.

BALT will be firing on all cylinders, no doubt about it. They're at home and they know winning will help their playoff chances against a playoff caliber Bronco team. BALT is a good team, good coaching staff, good skill players. Denver has that ooh so scary East Coast trip to make :D.

Balt has maybe the best run attack in the league, Denver can stop it. Balt can diversify to the pass. This is gonna be interesting. They'll have to beat Champ. They'll have to. The good O's know they'll have to beat Champ to win, so they'll try. So we'll see how it pans out.

Kaylore
10-26-2009, 02:54 PM
If odds weren't based on expectation of outcome nobody would trust them and wouldn't bet based on them.
No. You're wrong. They are based on making people give the Casino Money.

Mogulseeker
10-26-2009, 02:55 PM
I love it, we havent been favored in our last couple games.

The only game we were favorites in was the Cleveland game.

We're 6-0, even though Vegas is 1-5 in predicting our games.

Archer81
10-26-2009, 02:56 PM
Oh Vegas...you silly whore...


:Broncos:

SureShot
10-26-2009, 03:00 PM
Remember.... Bronco Warrior INVENTED the line. nuff said

He was mentored by Jimmy The Greek.

azbroncfan
10-26-2009, 03:13 PM
Line is set by vegas on how they can get equal money on both sides. 3.5 is a good number for Denver. Balt is in need of a win a lot more than Denver and Denver is due for a let down along with early game on east coast.

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 03:13 PM
Remember.... Bronco Warrior INVENTED the line. nuff said

C'mon, that's enough of that. Dude wants to contribute, let him contribute.

underrated29
10-26-2009, 03:15 PM
Right. Vegas makes money on the .5 part. They need enough teams to bet on both sides of the ball...

Do you guys have that poster Morambarintx? He made one of the greatest threads about vegas and betting i have ever seen.

I cant remember exactly how it all worked out, but my dumbed down version is. Vegas lures a team in, then adjusts for the opposing side of the team. They want an equal or close to balance of betters on both sides. So that no matter which team wins, they use the others teams money to pay off the winners. And vegas Keeps the .5 they got from BOTH sides.

or seomthing like that. I dont know, because i only bet on stuff that i can control the outcome. But thats how i best remember it being explained.

Houshyamama
10-26-2009, 03:17 PM
i've been peeking at a Ravens forum. most of them think the Ravens beating the Broncos is a near certainty and are more worried about PIT, CIN, and IND down the road. very few think Denver or Orton is for real and most of them think that the only reason BAL isn't 6-0 is because they are not playing to their potential or that the refs jobbed them. the consider their season to be on the line for this game and they assume that the Ravens will simply come out and manhandle the Broncos.

a bunch of asshats. all of them.

Meh, the majority of those fans don't know what's going on with the Broncos. Their opinions are less than meaningless, if that's possible. Who cares?

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 03:34 PM
He was mentored by Jimmy The Greek.

Yeah, well, Rev was mentored by Vinnie the talking mule and Dortoh was mentored by Mary the butt-sniffing goat.

I've noticed those two jackasses like to try and run people off the board, and I notice they have their sycophants that have their nose up their asses.

Rev is cute and humorous, but probably the biggest jackass I've seen on this board, and Dortoh is his waterboy. Anybody that rides on those two coattails is a mini-me kind of jackass.

azbroncfan
10-26-2009, 03:36 PM
Vegas just wants equal money on both sides and take the 10 percent.

Bronx33
10-26-2009, 03:41 PM
Yeah, well, Rev was mentored by Vinnie the talking mule and Dortoh was mentored by Mary the butt-sniffing goat.

I've noticed those two jackasses like to try and run people off the board, and I notice they have their sycophants that have their nose up their asses.

Rev is cute and humorous, but probably the biggest jackass I've seen on this board, and Dortoh is his waterboy. Anybody that rides on those two coattails is a mini-me kind of jackass.



Don't hold back cito it's not healthy:clown:

azbroncfan
10-26-2009, 03:42 PM
Denver has never beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. (zip for 3, including 12/31/00 playoff loss.)

However, it's been six years since the last time the Ravens hosted the game.

Wasn't the last one the monday night debacle during Portis's rookie year with Grease monkey at the helm? Todd Heap's coming out party?

Gort
10-26-2009, 03:59 PM
Meh, the majority of those fans don't know what's going on with the Broncos. Their opinions are less than meaningless, if that's possible. Who cares?

but... it's... the... internet! we must protect its integrity. ;)

http://mohel.dk/grafik/andet/Someone_Is_Wrong_On_The_Internet.jpg

Sassy
10-26-2009, 03:59 PM
Ha! nfln Just said the Broncos were playing the Steelers sunday.

Houshyamama
10-26-2009, 04:05 PM
but... it's... the... internet! we must protect its integrity. ;)

http://mohel.dk/grafik/andet/Someone_Is_Wrong_On_The_Internet.jpg

:rofl:

Atwater His Ass
10-26-2009, 04:19 PM
i've been peeking at a Ravens forum. most of them think the Ravens beating the Broncos is a near certainty and are more worried about PIT, CIN, and IND down the road. very few think Denver or Orton is for real and most of them think that the only reason BAL isn't 6-0 is because they are not playing to their potential or that the refs jobbed them. the consider their season to be on the line for this game and they assume that the Ravens will simply come out and manhandle the Broncos.

a bunch of asshats. all of them.

sounds like normal fans to me talking about their team on theri board.

this place is no different when it comes to the bronocs either.

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 04:23 PM
Right. Vegas makes money on the .5 part. They need enough teams to bet on both sides of the ball...

Do you guys have that poster Morambarintx? He made one of the greatest threads about vegas and betting i have ever seen.

I cant remember exactly how it all worked out, but my dumbed down version is. Vegas lures a team in, then adjusts for the opposing side of the team. They want an equal or close to balance of betters on both sides. So that no matter which team wins, they use the others teams money to pay off the winners. And vegas Keeps the .5 they got from BOTH sides.

or seomthing like that. I dont know, because i only bet on stuff that i can control the outcome. But thats how i best remember it being explained.

Pretty much the commissions/margins. They have the market cornered.

rbackfactory80
10-26-2009, 04:25 PM
Every week if you bet, draw up your own lines prior to seeing what Vegas posts. This week I drew up the Ravens game at Ravens -2. The actual spread is -3.5. This tells me to take the Broncos as seeing Baltimore win by more than three is highly unlikely. The point 5 though to me says Vegas wants you to take Denver. Three points says its a push, 3.5 is a minor edge they think to the Ravens. Its kind of begging you to take Denver.

OABB
10-26-2009, 04:28 PM
A few years back when I used to come here, the board was full of some good folks. And except for the trolls that would visit, the board-members were pretty cool with each other.

Now, there are plenty of people here that act like *****. There a particular reason for this? Love rubbing your nose into crap, love to demean and ridicule the other members.. what the hell happened to this board? It's like it's evolving into one of those great Raider boards where everyone acts like they are tough-****, know-it-alls about everything.

No skin off my back honestly, but I may start to visit other sites, I don't feel the need to hang out where people feel the need to belittle others to pass the time.

fu*k you.

Hotwheelz
10-26-2009, 04:56 PM
You're all idiots.

Denver will be pounded by the public. It'll be like 60-30.

broncogary
10-26-2009, 05:08 PM
AND, they really make money on the TOTAL amount bet. SO, it behooves them to make controversial odds that get people to bet MORE.

The psychological aspects can NOT be dismissed when it comes to Vegas making money....

Where did you get this? Are you testing us? ???

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 05:09 PM
BALT should be favored. They're a good team, and at home. They have an impressive running and passing attack. They're no slouches and they have legitimate aspirations as a playoff contender. Denver as another AFC contender is certainly in the way of their aspirations. BALT at 3-3 wants this win badly, they need this win, this is gonna be a tough game.

SureShot
10-26-2009, 05:11 PM
Where did you get this? Are you testing us? ???

I love this place. So many smartasses so few threads.:rofl:

DivineLegion
10-26-2009, 05:16 PM
This is the first real test for the offense so we will see what happens. Baltimore hasent been stellar this season because they lack in pass protection, but they are great at stopping the run and forcing teams to be one dimensional. The Pitt game will really define this team, if we win that game we are one of the best teams in the AFC for sure. I expect a lot of screen passes (as usual) to help stretch out Baltimores front 7 and open up the interior run game. Im excited to see what Brandons going to do against our old friend Veronica Foxworthy. The focus of this game is going to be our offense vs their Defense, I feel confident in our Defense. 2000000 to 6 Baltimore wins.

broncogary
10-26-2009, 05:18 PM
I love this place. So many smartasses so few threads.:rofl:

Actually I wasn't being a smart ass. I thought his statement was totally wrong, but I've never seen him be very wrong before, so I thought it was a trick.

SonOfLe-loLang
10-26-2009, 05:18 PM
This is the first real test for the offense so we will see what happens. Baltimore hasent been stellar this season because they lack in pass protection, but they are great at stopping the run and forcing teams to be one dimensional. The Pitt game will really define this team, if we win that game we are one of the best teams in the AFC for sure. I expect a lot of screen passes (as usual) to help stretch out Baltimores front 7 and open up the interior run game. Im excited to see what Brandons going to do against our old friend Veronica Foxworthy. The focus of this game is going to be our offense vs their Defense, I feel confident in our Defense. 2000000 to 6 Baltimore wins.

Vivica Foxworth

DivineLegion
10-26-2009, 05:20 PM
Vivica Foxworth

Mrs. Martian 2008, what ever you want to call him.

HEAV
10-26-2009, 05:21 PM
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broncofan2438
10-26-2009, 05:24 PM
This game could be scary. Ravens just came off a game that they were looking about to win toward the end of that vs vikings. Flacco can really sling that ball down the field.
I look forward to Nolan getting this D ready to kick some ass

Soul-Bronco
10-26-2009, 05:32 PM
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that had to be one of the best youtube videos ever created!:thanku:

HAT
10-26-2009, 05:39 PM
This thread has obscene amounts of FAIL.

Lev Vyvanse
10-26-2009, 05:42 PM
A few years back when I used to come here, the board was full of some good folks. And except for the trolls that would visit, the board-members were pretty cool with each other.

Now, there are plenty of people here that act like *****. There a particular reason for this? Love rubbing your nose into crap, love to demean and ridicule the other members.. what the hell happened to this board? It's like it's evolving into one of those great Raider boards where everyone acts like they are tough-****, know-it-alls about everything.

No skin off my back honestly, but I may start to visit other sites, I don't feel the need to hang out where people feel the need to belittle others to pass the time.
Yeah it really went to hell after slap left.

SureShot
10-26-2009, 05:55 PM
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Broncotilldeath
10-26-2009, 06:05 PM
We don't have a chance.

Crows - 76

Denver - 0

Mediator12
10-26-2009, 06:30 PM
Where did you get this? Are you testing us? ???

Your kidding right? The books make money from the "juice" they collect on every single bet placed. More money collected, the more they get. The trick they use to manipulate the money being even is to "Adjust the line". As someone here said, they use other peoples bet money to pay the money they owe the winners. However, they keep the juice from both sides.....

They manipulate bets psychologically by using peoples inherent biases against them. One statisitical bias is one that someone here used earlier.

1. Gambler's fallacy the tendency to assume that individual random events are influenced by previous random events. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin so many times that tails is bound to come up sooner or later." I think someone actually said:

Statistically our chance of losing a game increases over time.

2. Bandwagon effect the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias.

This one really affects gambling and the media. "No WAY the Broncos are that good. BAL is really the better team and will prove it @ home because they need a win!" The same people who believe this are the same ones who thought SD would win their home game as well.

3. Anchoring the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.

Vegas loves this one. No one fact can really decide an NFL game. Yet, many people bet based on one thing each week....

4. Ludic fallacy the analysis of chance related problems with the narrow frame of games. Ignoring the complexity of reality, and the non-gaussian distribution of many things.

This is WHY I never predict an outcome of a game or season. There are so many related variables that go into the outcome of every game that there is no way to reliably predict that outcome.

You can bet that all these, and many more, decision-making and outcome probability biases are used by the Vegas odds makers.

broncogary
10-26-2009, 06:37 PM
Your kidding right? The books make money from the "juice" they collect on every single bet placed. More money collected, the more they get. The trick they use to manipulate the money being even is to "Adjust the line". As someone here said, they use other peoples bet money to pay the money they owe the winners. However, they keep the juice from both sides.....

They manipulate bets psychologically by using peoples inherent biases against them. One statisitical bias is one that someone here used earlier.

1. Gambler's fallacy the tendency to assume that individual random events are influenced by previous random events. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin so many times that tails is bound to come up sooner or later." I think someone actually said:



2. Bandwagon effect the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias.

This one really affects gambling and the media. "No WAY the Broncos are that good. BAL is really the better team and will prove it @ home because they need a win!" The same people who believe this are the same ones who thought SD would win their home game as well.

3. Anchoring the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.

Vegas loves this one. No one fact can really decide an NFL game. Yet, many people bet based on one thing each week....

4. Ludic fallacy the analysis of chance related problems with the narrow frame of games. Ignoring the complexity of reality, and the non-gaussian distribution of many things.

This is WHY I never predict an outcome of a game or season. There are so many related variables that go into the outcome of every game that there is no way to reliably predict that outcome.

You can bet that all these, and many more, decision-making and outcome probability biases are used by the Vegas odds makers.

I think they try their best to equalize the amount bet on both sides, and the closer they keep the spread between their initial and final line, the more money they will make in the long run. Otherwise, they're just gambling like everyone else.

HAT
10-26-2009, 06:55 PM
I think they try their best to equalize the amount bet on both sides, and the closer they keep the spread between their initial and final line, the more money they will make in the long run. Otherwise, they're just gambling like everyone else.

Sharp bookmakers are not afraid to gamble some as long as they are not *too* exposed. (Pinnacle for example)

The notion that they want 50/50 action on every game is simply not true.


And like I said in another thread....this line has already moved to -3 (-120) at some places while others still have it at -3.5 (-105)

I think we will see it settle at -3, -120 most everywhere by Wednesday and the vig will slowly move Denver's way over the next couple of days....

+3 +100
+3 -105
+3 -110
+3 -115

No way in hell it moves to 2.5 though (Barring a MAJOR injury)....The books don't want to be exposed to that kind of middle opportunity. Early bettors that took Denver +3.5 would buy back Balty at -2.5 and hope Balty wins by a FG.

broncogary
10-26-2009, 07:18 PM
Sharp bookmakers are not afraid to gamble some as long as they are not *too* exposed. (Pinnacle for example)

The notion that they want 50/50 action on every game is simply not true.


And like I said in another thread....this line has already moved to -3 (-120) at some places while others still have it at -3.5 (-105)

I think we will see it settle at -3, -120 most everywhere by Wednesday and the vig will slowly move Denver's way over the next couple of days....

+3 +100
+3 -105
+3 -110
+3 -115

No way in hell it moves to 2.5 though (Barring a MAJOR injury)....The books don't want to be exposed to that kind of middle opportunity. Early bettors that took Denver +3.5 would buy back Balty at -2.5 and hope Balty wins by a FG.

I'm reading a book about Bear Stearns right now. They thought they were pretty sharp, and look what happened.

Lev Vyvanse
10-26-2009, 07:19 PM
No way in hell it moves to 2.5 though (Barring a MAJOR injury)....The books don't want to be exposed to that kind of middle opportunity. Early bettors that took Denver +3.5 would buy back Balty at -2.5 and hope Balty wins by a FG.

You've got to explain to me how this would make any sense. Remember that I'm slow, so really spell it out.

fdf
10-26-2009, 07:57 PM
I guess they favor the best 3-3 team in the universe against the worst 6-0 team in the galaxy or something like that. I don't mind at all.

I call foul. At some point, San Diego was 3-3 this season. So it is logically impossible for the Ravens to be the best 3-3 team in the universe.

rastaman
10-26-2009, 08:02 PM
This is the first real test for the offense so we will see what happens. Baltimore hasent been stellar this season because they lack in pass protection, but they are great at stopping the run and forcing teams to be one dimensional. The Pitt game will really define this team, if we win that game we are one of the best teams in the AFC for sure. I expect a lot of screen passes (as usual) to help stretch out Baltimores front 7 and open up the interior run game. Im excited to see what Brandons going to do against our old friend Veronica Foxworthy. The focus of this game is going to be our offense vs their Defense, I feel confident in our Defense. 2000000 to 6 Baltimore wins.

Ed Reed will be important in this game. We will need our RB's to hold on to the ball b/c the Ravens will definitely try to strip the ball.

HAT
10-26-2009, 08:19 PM
You've got to explain to me how this would make any sense. Remember that I'm slow, so really spell it out.

Since the line opened at 3.5 and is likely headed to 3.....It would take ALOT (Like a major Balty injury) to move to 2.5.

Instead, the more money that comes in on Denver at +3...they will simply make Balty -3 more appealing (assuming that they do in fact want a balanced sheet) by lowering the juice.

If they move to 2.5 they are too exposed to being "middled"

Say I bet Denver +3.5 yesterday at the standard -110....Risk 110 to win 100...

If the line moved to 2.5 I could then bet Balty -2.5 for the same amount, 110 to win 100.

If Balty wins by 3 (a very likely margin of victory) I win both bets, or 200.
Any other result and I simply lose 10 bucks. I'm essentially getting 20-1 that Balty wins by a FG......Now imagine the Pros out there that could do the same for 10's of thousands of dollars.

RunSilentRunDeep
10-26-2009, 08:22 PM
Anyone just see the poll on MNF? 78% of the ESPN audience thinks Denver will be the first of the undefeateds to fall. Here's hoping the crew was watching.

broncogary
10-26-2009, 08:23 PM
Since the line opened at 3.5 and is likely headed to 3.....It would take ALOT (Like a major Balty injury) to move to 2.5.

Instead, the more money that comes in on Denver at +3...they will simply make Balty -3 more appealing (assuming that they do in fact want a balanced sheet) by lowering the juice.

If they move to 2.5 they are too exposed to being "middled"

Say I bet Denver +3.5 yesterday at the standard -110....Risk 110 to win 100...

If the line moved to 2.5 I could then bet Balty -2.5 for the same amount, 110 to win 100.

If Balty wins by 3 (a very likely margin of victory) I win both bets, or 200.
Any other result and I simply lose 10 bucks. I'm essentially getting 20-1 that Balty wins by a FG......Now imagine the Pros out there that could do the same for 10's of thousands of dollars.

You've just made my point. The farther they move from the original line they put out, the bigger the chance they get middled.

Lev Vyvanse
10-26-2009, 08:41 PM
Since the line opened at 3.5 and is likely headed to 3.....It would take ALOT (Like a major Balty injury) to move to 2.5.

Instead, the more money that comes in on Denver at +3...they will simply make Balty -3 more appealing (assuming that they do in fact want a balanced sheet) by lowering the juice.

If they move to 2.5 they are too exposed to being "middled"

Say I bet Denver +3.5 yesterday at the standard -110....Risk 110 to win 100...

If the line moved to 2.5 I could then bet Balty -2.5 for the same amount, 110 to win 100.

If Balty wins by 3 (a very likely margin of victory) I win both bets, or 200.
Any other result and I simply lose 10 bucks. I'm essentially getting 20-1 that Balty wins by a FG......Now imagine the Pros out there that could do the same for 10's of thousands of dollars.

It's 20 bucks right? So you are betting 10 to 1 that -3 hits exactly?

HAT
10-26-2009, 09:22 PM
You've just made my point. The farther they move from the original line they put out, the bigger the chance they get middled.

It depends on the number.....Either side of 3, Always. Either side of 7, usually. Either side of 4, maybe. Either side of 10, rarely.

Even at 20-1 odds...trying to middle dead numbers is a bankroll buster.

It's not a big deal for them to move several points on non-key numbers. a 4.5 point spread isn't that much different from 6.5. Same for 7.5 and 9.5...10.5 and 13.5, etc.

Denver vs. Oak opened at Oakland -2.5 I think and closed at Denver -1.5....That's a 4 point swing but pretty irrelevant from a middling standpoint.

HAT
10-26-2009, 09:25 PM
It's 20 bucks right? So you are betting 10 to 1 that -3 hits exactly?

20-1. Ypu only pay the vig on the losing bet. In my example:

Denver +3.5, 110 for 100
Balty -2.5, 110 for 100

If Balty wins by 7.... I win 100 on the second bet and lose 110 on the first. $10 net loss.

BroncoBuff
10-26-2009, 09:28 PM
Vegas is getting killed this year because the favorites keep covering, but the Broncos are 5-0 as underdogs.

The Broncos are something-and-0 any way you break it down ;D

Lev Vyvanse
10-26-2009, 09:36 PM
20-1. Ypu only pay the vig on the losing bet. In my example:

Denver +3.5, 110 for 100
Balty -2.5, 110 for 100

If Balty wins by 7.... I win 100 on the second bet and lose 110 on the first. $10 net loss.

Thank you. I got it now. I don't bet much and by that I mean never.

listopencil
10-26-2009, 10:39 PM
A few years back when I used to come here, the board was full of some good folks. And except for the trolls that would visit, the board-members were pretty cool with each other.

Now, there are plenty of people here that act like *****. There a particular reason for this? Love rubbing your nose into crap, love to demean and ridicule the other members.. what the hell happened to this board? It's like it's evolving into one of those great Raider boards where everyone acts like they are tough-****, know-it-alls about everything.

No skin off my back honestly, but I may start to visit other sites, I don't feel the need to hang out where people feel the need to belittle others to pass the time.



http://www.theboxset.com/images/reviewcaptures/612capture_tombstone03.jpg

TheReverend
10-26-2009, 10:40 PM
Yeah, well, Rev was mentored by Vinnie the talking mule and Dortoh was mentored by Mary the butt-sniffing goat.

I've noticed those two jackasses like to try and run people off the board, and I notice they have their sycophants that have their nose up their asses.

Rev is cute and humorous, but probably the biggest jackass I've seen on this board, and Dortoh is his waterboy. Anybody that rides on those two coattails is a mini-me kind of jackass.

Dude, why are over 50% of your posts about me when I never even engage in conversation with you?

It's a little un-nerving actually...

Ironlung
10-26-2009, 11:21 PM
http://www.theboxset.com/images/reviewcaptures/612capture_tombstone03.jpg

I thought I saw the gif of this around here somewhere?

azbroncfan
10-26-2009, 11:29 PM
No way in hell it moves to 2.5 though (Barring a MAJOR injury)....The books don't want to be exposed to that kind of middle opportunity. Early bettors that took Denver +3.5 would buy back Balty at -2.5 and hope Balty wins by a FG.

Yep the line won't even move off of 3.5. The books will keep adjusting the money payout like you pointed out.

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 11:32 PM
Dude, why are over 50% of your posts about me when I never even engage in conversation with you?

It's a little un-nerving actually...

Because you're so loud-mouthed it's fun to pick on you.

TheReverend
10-26-2009, 11:34 PM
Because you're so loud-mouthed it's fun to pick on you.

Are you this desperate for my attention?

I'm replying to you now, Cito. There, that make you feel all better? Poor wittle boy...

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 11:41 PM
Are you this desperate for my attention?

I'm replying to you now, Cito. There, that make you feel all better? Poor wittle boy...

Yer a good girl replying to Daddy Cito. Are you in a safe place? Tell Dad you're in a safe place so I can have a good night's sleep.

TheReverend
10-26-2009, 11:43 PM
Yer a good girl replying to Daddy Cito. Are you in a safe place? Tell Dad you're in a safe place so I can have a good night's sleep.

Is this you "picking" on me? See I can't tell because it's usually all homosexual innuendo... like you referring to me as "cute" and even saying you "want to spank" me.

It's enough, Cito. You've crossed into creepy territory a long time ago.

Cito Pelon
10-26-2009, 11:47 PM
Is this you "picking" on me? See I can't tell because it's usually all homosexual innuendo... like you referring to me as "cute" and even saying you "want to spank" me.

It's enough, Cito. You've crossed into creepy territory a long time ago.

OK, enough.

Bob's your Information Minister
10-26-2009, 11:48 PM
If you guys beat Baltimore the curse of Shanny will be lifted indefinitely...

OABB
10-26-2009, 11:52 PM
If you guys beat Baltimore the curse of Shanny will be lifted indefinitely...

don't jinx it bobo, please please please tell us how our slide will begin and how Baltimore will kill us.

You are the golden goose. Don't **** it up blubber****.

Sassy
10-27-2009, 03:04 AM
So were the ChargeLESS ;D
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/attachment.php?attachmentid=25283&stc=1&d=1256136977

BossChief
10-27-2009, 03:55 AM
Baltimore will test you guys.

A lot will be showed with how your team plays against them.

Alot of questions will be answered, and more will be brought up after the game.

Gort
10-27-2009, 07:12 AM
people are giving the Ravens too much respect. they are 3-3. they have gone 2-2 against teams we have gone 4-0 against. Minnesota was manhandling them until they went to a 4th quarter soft/prevent defense that allowed the Ravens to put up a bunch of points and make the game close at the end.

azbroncfan
10-27-2009, 11:55 AM
If you guys beat Baltimore the curse of Shanny will be lifted indefinitely...

I think Denver has won the past 3 meetings with them. Stand correct last 2 meetings. Plummer was 2-0 against them.