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View Full Version : Teamrankings.com (ESPN) Week 5 pick


Rulon Velvet Jones
10-09-2009, 11:14 AM
They got the Cowboys matchup correct, predicting a Denver win and cover with 2 stars for the win and 1 for the cover.

This week - even better.

2 stars for the win and another 2 in confidence for the cover (+3)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/pickcenter?providerid=2&gameid=291011007

Boatload of numbers below:

The New England Patriots (3-1, #8 Overall power ranking) hit the road in Week 5, going 1,757 miles to battle #4 ranked Denver (4-0). In their last game, closing point spreads saw the Patriots as a 1 point home favorite against #12 ranked Baltimore. New England outperformed that expectation, winning by 6, 27-21, after being up by 10 at the half. The Patriots are now 2-2-0 ATS.

Recently, New England has gone 3-1 and now ranks #8 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The Patriots went 2-2-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the Patriots score their highest marks in first downs per game (24.4, #1 rank), opponent points per game (14.9, #2 rank), and opponent yards per game (278.0, #2 rank).

The Denver Broncos remain at home after a 17-10 home win against the Dallas Cowboys. In their last game, the Broncos were a 1 point home underdog vs. #20 ranked Dallas. Denver outperformed that expectation, winning by 7 after being down by 3 at the half. The Broncos are now 4-0-0 ATS.

In recent games, Denver has gone 4-0 and now ranks #4 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The Broncos went 4-0-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the Broncos score their highest marks in yards per rush attempt (5.3, #2 rank), yards per game (384.4, #5 rank), and opponent third down conversion percentage (34.5%, #8 rank).
Similar Historical MatchupsOur data driven algorithms have analyzed 1,664 regular season and post season NFL games since September 2003. Out of 75 historical matchups that featured teams statistically most similar to the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos:

The team like the Broncos won 60.6% of games, and won 10 of the 15 most similar
The team like the Broncos covered 63.8% of games, and covered in 10 of the 15 most similar The table below presents the 15 most similar historical games identified by our data algorithms.

# Date Like NWE Like DEN Spread Score Win Cover
1 10/22/06 Pittsburgh at Atlanta PIT -2.5 38-41 DEN DEN
2 09/20/09 New England at NY Jets NWE -3.5 9-16 DEN DEN
3 09/21/09 Indianapolis at Miami IND -3.0 27-23 NWE NWE
4 09/27/09 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati PIT -3.5 20-23 DEN DEN
5 09/09/07 Philadelphia at Green Bay PHI -3.0 13-16 DEN DEN
6 09/30/07 Philadelphia at NY Giants PHI -2.0 3-16 DEN DEN
7 10/03/04 Tennessee at San Diego TEN -3.0 17-38 DEN DEN
8 10/10/04 Baltimore at Washington BAL Pick 17-10 NWE NWE
9 09/25/05 Carolina at Miami CAR -3.5 24-27 DEN DEN
10 10/28/07 Philadelphia at Minnesota PHI +1.0 23-16 NWE NWE
11 10/17/04 Kansas City at Jacksonville KAN -1.0 16-22 DEN DEN
12 10/05/03 Minnesota at Atlanta MIN -5.0 39-26 NWE NWE
13 10/09/05 Philadelphia at Dallas PHI -3.5 10-33 DEN DEN
14 10/09/06 Baltimore at Denver BAL +5.5 3-13 DEN DEN
15 10/16/05 Carolina at Detroit CAR +1.0 21-20 NWE NWE

Win/Loss RecordsRecord NWE Adv. DEN
Season 3-1 4-0
Last 5 Games 3-1 4-0
vs Top 25% 0-1 1-0
vs Top 50% 1-1 1-0
Streak W2 W4
Home/Away 0-1 2-0
ATS RecordsRecord NWE Adv. DEN
Season 2-2-0 4-0-0
Last 5 Games 2-2-0 4-0-0
vs Top 25% 0-1-0 1-0-0
vs Top 50% 1-1-0 1-0-0
Streak W2 W4
Home/Away 0-1-0 2-0-0
Offensive StatsStat NWE Adv. DEN
Points/Game 21.8 19.8
Avg Score Margin +4.0 +13.2
Yards/Game 376.0 365.0
Yards/Rush 3.7 4.7
Yards/Pass 6.3 7.4
Completion % 62.1% 59.0%
3D Conversion % 45.8% 36.7%
RZ Scoring % 38.9% 37.5%
Defensive/Other StatsStat NWE Adv. DEN
Opp Points/Game 17.8 6.5
TO Margin/Game +0.5 +1.8
Opp Yards/Game 287.5 239.8
Opp Yards/Rush 4.5 3.2
Opp Yards/Pass 6.3 5.1
Penalty Yds/Game 35.0 50.0
Opp 3D Conv % 40.9% 26.4%
Opp RZ Scoring % 54.5% 33.3%
New England Best/Worst StatsBest Stats Value Rank
First Downs/Game 24.4 1
Opp Points/Game 14.9 2
Opp Yards/Game 278.0 2
Opp FDs/Game 15.7 2
Avg Score Margin +13.1 2
Worst Stats Value Rank
Interception % 1.4% 29
RZ Scoring % 45.5% 26
Opp RZ Scoring % 57.1% 23
Takeaways/Game 1.3 22
Opp 3D Conv % 40.2% 22
SOS PR 27.7 8
Denver Best/Worst StatsBest Stats Value Rank
Yards/Rush 5.3 2
Yards/Game 384.4 5
Opp 3D Conv % 34.5% 8
Opp TDs/Game 2.1 9
Interception % 3.5% 9
Worst Stats Value Rank
RZ Scoring % 33.3% 30
Opp FG Conv % 100.0% 29
Opp RZ Scoring % 66.7% 29
TDs/Game 2.0 23
Penalty Yds/Game 52.3 23
SOS PR 22.0 29