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24champ
10-05-2009, 03:19 PM
I was searching around on google/yahoo to find out what percentage of teams that start out 4-0, go on to make the playoffs? Anyone know this?


Although I found on "accuscore" that they project that we have 49.5% chance of winning the division, and the Chargers have a 49.9% of winning the division. Raiders and Chiefs have zero chance.

They also say that Denver has 66% chance to make the playoffs, Chargers 67%, Raiders 1%, Chiefs 1%...


http://accuscore.com/nfl/tools/team-win-forecasts

TheElusiveKyleOrton
10-05-2009, 03:28 PM
I was wondering about this yesterday, actually. The teams that started 0-3 and made the playoffs wasn't that impressive, but you've got to figure it's higher for 4-0...

I would guess 70-80%. Perhaps even higher.

atomicbloke
10-05-2009, 03:33 PM
I remember a few years back the Vikings started 6 - 0 and failed to make the playoffs.

cutthemdown
10-05-2009, 03:39 PM
It's too early to worry or wonder about playoffs.

People went from we are going 2-14 this yr, to we are going to win division!!!

Arkie
10-05-2009, 03:42 PM
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?

chadta
10-05-2009, 03:42 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/West/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs

24champ
10-05-2009, 03:45 PM
It's too early to worry or wonder about playoffs.

Yeah for the players and coaches.

As a fan, this was discussed after the game, fans are excited and curious to how far this team could go. I am curious about what the statistics are for 4-0 teams that go to the playoffs.

broncofan2438
10-05-2009, 03:50 PM
Way to early to talk playoffs. This thread needs to go

24champ
10-05-2009, 03:51 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/West/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs

Whoa.

That site lists a 96.1% chance of getting into the playoffs. Seems a little high.

I am still looking for a STATISTIC of 4-0 teams that make the playoffs.

DenverBrit
10-05-2009, 03:52 PM
I believe I heard this right: the last 5 times Denver started 4-0, they went to the SB four of those years....and won two. ;D

bombay
10-05-2009, 03:54 PM
Heard 86% of 4-0 teams make the playoffs on Mike & Mike's show this morning. They were actually speaking of the Broncos at the time.

Mr. Elway
10-05-2009, 03:57 PM
You have to take into account that we are the worst 4-0 team in history.

Doggcow
10-05-2009, 04:10 PM
we have a harder schedule with NE and Indy than SD does though, remember that.

atomicbloke
10-05-2009, 04:11 PM
You have to take into account that we are the worst 4-0 team in history.

Yeah.... and in addition to that, the Chargers are the best team in the history of the NFL....

Que
10-05-2009, 04:21 PM
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?

99.9%*

* see Denver Broncos, 2008

Pretty sure it was 100% until last year

DaFace
10-05-2009, 04:29 PM
For what it's worth, there's a guy on ChiefsPlanet (cdcox) who is a major stats geek. He's designed a little program to predict the rest of the season given the results of previous weeks. This takes into account much more than just scores and results, so you get a pretty good peek at how things might play out.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

Anyway, his software is currently putting the Broncos' playoff chances at around 94.5%. Just thought you'd like to know.

P.S. Broncos suck. :)

DaFace
10-05-2009, 04:31 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/West/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs

Cool site. The one big advantage that the program I posted above has over that site is that you have the ability to run scenarios if you'd like. In other words, you can override the assumptive odds of winning in a given game to say "If the Broncos lose their last four games, what are the odds they'll still make the playoffs" and that type of thing.

Que
10-05-2009, 04:55 PM
For what it's worth, there's a guy on ChiefsPlanet (cdcox) who is a major stats geek. He's designed a little program to predict the rest of the season given the results of previous weeks. This takes into account much more than just scores and results, so you get a pretty good peek at how things might play out.

http://nfl-forecast.com/

Anyway, his software is currently putting the Broncos' playoff chances at around 94.5%. Just thought you'd like to know.

P.S. Broncos suck. :)

This is a really cool site.

Swedish Extrovert
10-05-2009, 04:59 PM
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?

Last year's Broncos were the first team in NFL history to do that.

DaFace
10-05-2009, 05:02 PM
This is a really cool site.

I suppose I should mention the caveat given by cdcox himself:

The "power ratings" are purely based on a team's performance thus far in the regular season. Four games is a pretty small sample size, so things could always change that would fundamentally shift the assumptions of the model. The basic idea is that the program assumes the team will play reasonably close to the way it has played thus far in the year.

Gort
10-05-2009, 05:16 PM
What's the percentage of teams that make the playoffs that are up 3 games with 3 to go?

with or without Cutler?

with = 0%
without = 100%

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sIvWMQvGKyA/SVqqMqybPLI/AAAAAAAABxM/X264IvgZk8w/s400/emo+jay+cutler.jpg

Dagmar
10-05-2009, 05:20 PM
http://i28.tinypic.com/2vsesug.gif

Tankgunner95
10-05-2009, 05:26 PM
PLAYOFFS? your are talking about PLAYOFFS?

tsiguy96
10-05-2009, 05:35 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/West/Broncos.html

i like this site better tho for following chances of making playoffs

this site gives us a great, great chance at 12-4, really good chance at 11-5 and 13-3.

cowman
10-05-2009, 06:12 PM
I'm the site owner of nfl-forecast.com (http://nfl-forecast.com) (cdcox on ChiefsPlanet). Last year, with a 3 game lead with 3 games to go the Broncos had a 97% chance of winning the Division. I use http://advancednflstats.com to calculate my single game odds. That power rating system had the Chargers rated as a better team than Denver all season long, despite the Bronco's better record for most of the season.

Here is a graph showing the Bronco's playoff chances this year as a function of number of games won. 10-6 gives you a really good chance, anything better is an almost lock. The tie-breakers in the software are rock solid, which become really important near the end of the season. After about week 10 or so you can do some really detailed scenario analysis with the software. It would be cool if someone on this site became the playoff expert. As DaFace pointed out, results this early in the season should be taken with a grain of salt.

24champ
10-05-2009, 06:34 PM
Heard 86% of 4-0 teams make the playoffs on Mike & Mike's show this morning. They were actually speaking of the Broncos at the time.

Sounds about right. Thanks.

Bronco X
10-05-2009, 06:44 PM
The Buffalo Bills last year started 4-0 (and was 5-1 at one point) and finished 7-9.

cowman
10-05-2009, 07:04 PM
The Buffalo Bills last year started 4-0 (and was 5-1 at one point) and finished 7-9.

When Buffalo was 4-1 last season, I had their odds of making the playoffs at only 58%. I didn't save the predictions when they were 4-0 or 5-1.

Last year, the Broncos were playing worse than their record would indicate and San Diego was playing better than their record would indicate. I had San Diego favored to win the division last season even after week 12. This year, so far at least, Denver is playing up to their record and San Diego is both playing mediocre football and has a mediocre record. It's still early, but if the Broncos continue to play like they've been playing they'll probably make the playoffs.

Dagmar
10-05-2009, 08:18 PM
84% according to MNF

lex
10-05-2009, 08:18 PM
84%...this very stat was just on.

tsiguy96
10-05-2009, 08:20 PM
When Buffalo was 4-1 last season, I had their odds of making the playoffs at only 58%. I didn't save the predictions when they were 4-0 or 5-1.

Last year, the Broncos were playing worse than their record would indicate and San Diego was playing better than their record would indicate. I had San Diego favored to win the division last season even after week 12. This year, so far at least, Denver is playing up to their record and San Diego is both playing mediocre football and has a mediocre record. It's still early, but if the Broncos continue to play like they've been playing they'll probably make the playoffs.

yea broncos went 8-8 despite allowing more points than scoring. theyd either win by a few or get blown out big time.

JLesSPE
10-05-2009, 08:27 PM
The graphic they just showed on MNF said 84% of teams that start 4-0 have made the playoffs since 1990. 3-1 was 61% and 2-2 was 32% or somethin like that.

BroncoMan4ever
10-05-2009, 10:51 PM
I was wondering about this yesterday, actually. The teams that started 0-3 and made the playoffs wasn't that impressive, but you've got to figure it's higher for 4-0...

I would guess 70-80%. Perhaps even higher.

4-0 almost guarantees playoffs. i remember seeing somewhere that the stat is almost 90% that you will make the playoffs if you begin the season 4-0

basically once you get to 4-0 all you really need to do is go at least .500 the rest of the year and you are almost assured of going to the playoffs.

baja
10-05-2009, 10:58 PM
What does 6 and 0 do for ya?

DBroncos4life
10-05-2009, 10:58 PM
They should do the odds of a 4-0 team making the playoffs with 3 total games vs KC and Oakland remaining :rofl:

baja
10-05-2009, 11:00 PM
They should do the odds of a 4-0 team making the playoffs with 4 total games vs KC and Oakland remaining :rofl:

do we play Oakland 3 times

DBroncos4life
10-05-2009, 11:09 PM
do we play Oakland 3 times
Opps

dbroncos31
10-05-2009, 11:14 PM
http://www.coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp?i=1

seems to work pretty well for MLB

Kaylore
10-05-2009, 11:16 PM
There was a stat on All-Access that Vic Lombardi dropped that might be interesting. The Broncos have gone 4-0 five times in their history. They've reached the playoffs all five times and four of those times they went to the Super Bowl.;D

24champ
10-05-2009, 11:50 PM
4-0 almost guarantees playoffs. i remember seeing somewhere that the stat is almost 90% that you will make the playoffs if you begin the season 4-0

basically once you get to 4-0 all you really need to do is go at least .500 the rest of the year and you are almost assured of going to the playoffs.

I think it's 84% of 4-0 teams going to the playoffs since the wildcard was implemented in the NFL.

atomicbloke
10-05-2009, 11:53 PM
There was a stat on All-Access that Vic Lombardi dropped that might be interesting. The Broncos have gone 4-0 five times in their history. They've reached the playoffs all five times and four of those times they went to the Super Bowl.;D

And won 2 of them :strong:

4 games remaining against KC, OAK and Washington... unless injuries strike, those are winnable.... this bunch doesn't have the look of a team that can get caught in a trap game....

so at a minimum 8 games should be in the bag....

That means we have to steal around 3 from the remaining 8.... I think its very much possible...

24champ
10-05-2009, 11:55 PM
There was a stat on All-Access that Vic Lombardi dropped that might be interesting. The Broncos have gone 4-0 five times in their history. They've reached the playoffs all five times and four of those times they went to the Super Bowl.;D


http://i33.tinypic.com/1o13dx.gif

DBroncos4life
10-06-2009, 12:05 AM
http://i33.tinypic.com/1o13dx.gif

If someone would just put boobs on that we would have the perfect gif.

cutthemdown
10-06-2009, 01:16 AM
It's a nice start but I just can't care about these types of percentages after what happened last yr.

Now if we beat Patriots that may change. Dallas hasn't beat anyone, but the Pats are a test for any team in the NFL. Plus they absolutely destroyed us last yr.

rastaman
10-06-2009, 01:41 AM
4-0 almost guarantees playoffs. i remember seeing somewhere that the stat is almost 90% that you will make the playoffs if you begin the season 4-0

basically once you get to 4-0 all you really need to do is go at least .500 the rest of the year and you are almost assured of going to the playoffs.

Actually the NFL for the most part is a parity 8-8 team type of league. Shanny relinquist a team to McD that wasn't really all that bad. It wasn't like Shanny's 08 team was the Detroit Lions. So really it isn't a great accomplishment that McD and Nolan has the Broncos 4-0 at this time. Shanny, Bates, and Cutler could have had the Broncos 4-0 at this point as well.

This season will be interesting b/c unlike last year, this years Broncos have so far fielded an 05-06 Coyer Defense, while the 09 Offense is rather stagnant and stale and inconsistent. Lets just say the 09 Bronco offense is so inconsistent......it can actually wear down the Defense down the stretch.

cutthemdown
10-06-2009, 01:53 AM
Actually the NFL for the most part is a parity 8-8 team type of league. Shanny relinquist a team to McD that wasn't really all that bad. It wasn't like Shanny's 08 team was the Detroit Lions. So really it isn't a great accomplishment that McD and Nolan has the Broncos 4-0 at this time. Shanny, Bates, and Cutler could have had the Broncos 4-0 at this point as well.

This season will be interesting b/c unlike last year, this years Broncos have so far fielded an 05-06 Coyer Defense, while the 09 Offense is rather stagnant and stale and inconsistent. Lets just say the 09 Bronco offense is so inconsistent......it can actually wear down the Defense down the stretch.

If we had Nolan, Dawkins, Davis, Goodman, Hill, and got rid of Engleberger, Webster, Winborn etc then yes we might still be 4-0 right now.

Remember how good Brady Quinn looked vs the Broncos when we played them with Shanny at helm? Compared to this yr?

Once you make a move it changes things all over. Keeping Shanny would have meant so many different things there is a chance we could be the worst defense in the NFL right now. Shanny may not have went after Dawkins. etc etc etc.

Shanny would have wanted to prove some of his moves were smart. Would not have drafted Moreno etc etc.

So really you can't say that. You thought we would stink and now you want to say with that we would be 4-0 either way. You are about the most illogical poster on the whole board. It doesn't matter if its football, or in the WPR.

Get a friggin clue.

cutthemdown
10-06-2009, 01:55 AM
We might still have Webster and Winborn on the team. Shanny loved those guys.

fdf
10-06-2009, 02:18 AM
You have to take into account that we are the worst 4-0 team in history.

Really sucks we have to be in the same division with the best 2-2 team in history.

rastaman
10-06-2009, 02:21 AM
If we had Nolan, Dawkins, Davis, Goodman, Hill, and got rid of Engleberger, Webster, Winborn etc then yes we might still be 4-0 right now.

Remember how good Brady Quinn looked vs the Broncos when we played them with Shanny at helm? Compared to this yr?

Once you make a move it changes things all over. Keeping Shanny would have meant so many different things there is a chance we could be the worst defense in the NFL right now. Shanny may not have went after Dawkins. etc etc etc.

Shanny would have wanted to prove some of his moves were smart. Would not have drafted Moreno etc etc.

So really you can't say that. You thought we would stink and now you want to say with that we would be 4-0 either way. You are about the most illogical poster on the whole board. It doesn't matter if its football, or in the WPR.

Get a friggin clue.

Clueless! Okay wouldn't it be safe to say that their is so much parity in the NFL and balance btwn tinkering around with your team is the difference btwn a team going 13-3 last year and starting out this season at 0-4 or 0-5 i.e, the Tenn. Titans! You can only assume that Shanny would not have had the Broncos at 4-0 this season.

But hey Cutty....you go ahead and continue to be "A Legend In Your Own Mind". I wont distrub you.;)

cutthemdown
10-06-2009, 02:32 AM
Clueless! Okay wouldn't it be safe to say that their is so much parity in the NFL and balance btwn tinkering around with your team is the difference btwn a team going 13-3 last year and starting out this season at 0-4 or 0-5 i.e, the Tenn. Titans! You can only assume that Shanny would not have had the Broncos at 4-0 this season.

But hey Cutty....you go ahead and continue to be "A Legend In Your Own Mind". I wont distrub you.;)

I won't assume anything. I said no one could know what team would look like right now. Once you change the person making the decisions everything changes. There is just no way the team would be the same players we have now.

Your the one coming out and saying we would still be 4-0. Me a legend? You seem to be the one who thinks his mind is all powerful making predictions not of the future, but of how the present would have played out under a whole new set of facts.

There is parity in NFL, you are right about that. But the reality is mcdaniels inherited a defense that had been bad for a number of yrs. Had the worst special teams in afc west and didn't win more then 7-9 games a yr.

I'm not even sure what your point is. Is your point the Broncos were actually really good team, and that Bowlen panicked and fired Shanny right before he was going to take us to 12-4 and win Superbowl? And that the only reason we are 4-0 is because of the talent shanny left behind?

Is that seriously your point?

chadta
10-06-2009, 04:44 AM
its gonna be a long year if were talkin playofs already

Mr. Elway
10-06-2009, 07:06 AM
Actually the NFL for the most part is a parity 8-8 team type of league. Shanny relinquist a team to McD that wasn't really all that bad. It wasn't like Shanny's 08 team was the Detroit Lions. So really it isn't a great accomplishment that McD and Nolan has the Broncos 4-0 at this time. Shanny, Bates, and Cutler could have had the Broncos 4-0 at this point as well.

Actually the 08 defense was almost exactly like Detroit, and the 2008 Broncos were 3-1 at this point having recently sustained an asskicking by the Chiefs.

But why let little things like facts get in the way of rooting for the phantom 2009 Shanahan and Cutler Broncos?

TotallyScrewed
10-06-2009, 07:09 AM
What does 6 and 0 do for ya?

Well...this year...it might mean your 2-3 games away from locking up the AFCW title.

Beantown Bronco
10-06-2009, 07:14 AM
I found on "accuscore" that they project that we have 49.5% chance of winning the division, and the Chargers have a 49.9% of winning the division. Raiders and Chiefs have zero chance.

So that means there is a 0.6% chance that nobody wins the division. That would be pretty interesting.

Mr. Elway
10-06-2009, 07:16 AM
So that means there is a 0.6% chance that nobody wins the division. That would be pretty interesting.

I think you've just uncovered Al Davis' secret plot.

24champ
10-07-2009, 01:29 PM
http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_nfl_experts__16/ept_sports_nfl_experts-849475870-1254939108.jpg?ymk3mACDI6.IT8kC


http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-absurdly-premature-playoff-picture-Week-4;_ylt=Av9873ozGpSRip5eeO.78yVDubYF?urn=nfl,194601

bronco militia
10-07-2009, 01:34 PM
the steelers with a 1st round bye makes no sense

24champ
10-12-2009, 12:37 PM
Bump.:wave:

Punisher
10-12-2009, 12:55 PM
<table class="team_stats" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="team_name_td">indianapolis colts</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">0</td> <td align="center">13.8</td> <td align="center">2.2</td> <td align="center">100%</td> <td align="center">100%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="team_stats" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="team_name_td">new york giants</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">0</td> <td align="center">11.9</td> <td align="center">4.2</td> <td align="center">59%</td> <td align="center">84%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="team_stats" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="team_name_td">minnesota vikings</td> <td align="center">5</td> <td align="center">0</td> <td align="center">12.5</td> <td align="center">3.5</td> <td align="center">81%</td> <td align="center">92%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="team_stats" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="team_name_td">new orleans saints</td> <td align="center">4</td> <td align="center">0</td> <td align="center">12.1</td> <td align="center">3.9</td> <td align="center">70%</td> <td align="center">91%</td></tr></tbody></table>

All these teams have a higher chance of going to the playoffs then us. WHY?

atomicbloke
10-12-2009, 01:19 PM
All these teams have a higher chance of going to the playoffs then us. WHY?

Let's be fair, unless proven otherwise... those teams are better than us on paper, if only by a little...

UberBroncoMan
10-12-2009, 03:23 PM
I was searching around on google/yahoo to find out what percentage of teams that start out 4-0, go on to make the playoffs? Anyone know this?


Although I found on "accuscore" that they project that we have 49.5% chance of winning the division, and the Chargers have a 49.9% of winning the division. Raiders and Chiefs have zero chance.

They also say that Denver has 66% chance to make the playoffs, Chargers 67%, Raiders 1%, Chiefs 1%...


http://accuscore.com/nfl/tools/team-win-forecasts

I think I should throw out (if no one else has yet) that the Buffalo Bills were 5-0 last season and missed the playoffs.

Still a lot of season left.

Oh and they changed the %... we're a 76% chance now and San Diego is a 58% chance.

LetsGoBroncos
10-12-2009, 03:30 PM
Buffalo was 4-0 last season and then lost to Arizona

http://espn.go.com/nfl/teams/schedule?team=buf&year=2008

UberBroncoMan
10-12-2009, 03:38 PM
Buffalo was 4-0 last season and then lost to Arizona

http://espn.go.com/nfl/teams/schedule?team=buf&year=2008

Ah thanks for the correction then. I heard on the New England forum they (Bills) were 5-0, and still sucked as an excuse why they would beat us.

LetsGoBroncos
10-12-2009, 03:41 PM
Also, their 4-0 was very different from ours. Look at their 4 wins. Rams, Raiders, Jags, Seahawks. Those teams finished a combined 16-48.

cowman
10-19-2009, 11:14 PM
My software now predicts Denver to have a 99.6% chance of winning the division.

For those of you that are gun shy, this situation is much different than last year. 91.7% was the high water mark, even with a 3 game lead with 3 to play. See, last year Denver was a weak team that happened to have a better record than would be expected based on the quality of their play. At the same time, San Diego was a good team with a worse record than they should have based on their play. One piece of evidence supporting that was the early season Denver victory over the Chargers given by the refs. Here are my predictions from last season, after each team I list there records and my predictions of their chances of winning the division (all archived at http://files.nfl-forecast.com/):

Week 10
Denver 5-4; 31.9%
San Diego 4-5; 68%

Week 11
Denver 6-4; 63%
San Diego 4-6; 37%

Week 12
Denver 6-5; 44%
San Diego 4-7; 56%

Week 13
Denver 7-5; 87%
San Diego 4-8; 13%

Week 14
Denver 8-5; 91.7%
San Diego 5-8; 8.3%

Week 15
Denver 8-6; 90.5%
San Diego 6-8; 9.5%

Week 16
Denver 8-7; 22.3%
San Diego 7-8; 77.7%

Week 17
Denver 8-8 0%
San Diego 8-8 100%

This year is much different. Denver is playing like one of the elite teams (at least so far) and San Diego is playing like an average team. It is nothing like last year except for the names of the teams.

TotallyScrewed
10-20-2009, 10:14 AM
When does the software say Denver has locked up the division, given that they are undefeated?

Arkie
12-20-2009, 09:26 PM
My software now predicts Denver to have a 99.6% chance of winning the division.


What's the software say now?