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broncosteven
10-05-2009, 04:02 PM
Should Owners change their HC every 5 -7 years despite what the HC accomplished?

Shanny came in and had success by his 2nd year and won back to back SB's by end of 5th year.

1999 was bad for lots of reasons including losing Elway and TD.

I was thinking should Bolwen be constantly looking for the next great coach and blowup and reload the franchise after say 6 years.

At somepoint you can tell a window has closed on a teams SB run and it's time for a change anyway.

I really liked Shanny but it is clear that the team has been extremely weak on D and ST's for last 10 years.

It is apparent that a change was what this team needed.

It is also apparent that even though Jeff Fisher is a great coach maybe his time has passed in Tenn, and I would venture to say that NE would be revitalized if Belly moved on.

Sure Cower finnaly won late in his tenure but the ending of the Schula, Landry, Brown, even Ditaka tenures were disasters long in comming.

If the HC has SB experience or Potential isn't it better for him and the franchise to move on after their success rather than watching the legacy fade into disgust?

The down side would be going from a Johnson to a Wanny or a Ditka to a Wanny and then getting locked into a Coaching carousel year after year but if you can find the right talent you are golden.

If I were an owner, after the last couple years, I am guessing I would always be evaluating HC talent and rotating the HC every 6-7 years dispite the record.

tsiguy96
10-05-2009, 04:07 PM
no, but i think there is a point where every HC message gets old. when that happens, and it probably did with shanny, they need to change. bowlen is not a dumb man, i think he knew that time was up.

Archer81
10-05-2009, 04:14 PM
I think Bill B in NE's time is drawing short. Not because Kraft will fire him, but probably because the challenge is gone with the players he has. Even a team first message gets stale after a decade in one place. I believe the same is true for Jeff Fisher. The guy is a good coach, but 15 years with one franchise? He accomplished alot in Hou/Tenn, but move on.

:Broncos:

BroncoDoug
10-05-2009, 04:18 PM
I think Bill B in NE's time is drawing short. Not because Kraft will fire him, but probably because the challenge is gone with the players he has. Even a team first message gets stale after a decade in one place. I believe the same is true for Jeff Fisher. The guy is a good coach, but 15 years with one franchise? He accomplished alot in Hou/Tenn, but move on.

:Broncos:

I agree Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league, but I was thinking about this last night, what has he really accomplished? One super bowl loss? I see him getting the ax this year if things dont turn around.

uplink
10-05-2009, 04:32 PM
I agree Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league, but I was thinking about this last night, what has he really accomplished? One super bowl loss? I see him getting the ax this year if things dont turn around.

I think after ~6 years coaches have to show that the team is moving forward to greater success or they will be canned. Seems Fisher is gone unless the Titans finish strong.

houghtam
10-05-2009, 05:29 PM
I don't believe this is actually that bad of an idea, in theory, as long as the owner didn't stick to it to the letter. If you're in year 6 and your team just won the division, you obviously don't blow things up and start over.

I would definitely like to see some stats and accomplishments of coaches in their first 6-7 years with the same team vs. years 8+.

edit: Obviously this would be a shorter list, considering there aren't a TON of coaches that stick with the same team that long..still...

Archer81
10-05-2009, 05:31 PM
I agree Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league, but I was thinking about this last night, what has he really accomplished? One super bowl loss? I see him getting the ax this year if things dont turn around.


Thats more than alot of coaches get.


:Broncos:

houghtam
10-05-2009, 05:56 PM
Just a quick list I put together of coaches since the merger who spent long tenures with one team (at least 9-10 years) and did/did not fit Broncosteven's profile.

Coach Who Fit - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Andy Reid - 7-5, NFCC - 3-2
Jeff Fisher - 3-1, AFCC - 2-5
Tom Flores - 8-2, 2 SB - 0-1
Chuck Knox - 3-4 - 0-0
Marty Schottenheimer - 3-5 - 0-3
Mike Shanahan - 7-2, 2 SB - 1-3

Coach Who Did Not Fit - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Joe Gibbs - 8-3, SB, NFCC - 8-2, 2 SB
Dan Reeves - 2-3, AFCC - 5-3, 2 AFCC
Mike Holmgren - 0-2 - 4-3, NFCC
Bill Cowher - 5-6, AFCC - 7-3, SB

Coaches Somewhere in the Middle - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Don Shula - 8-2, 2 SB, AFCC - 6-8, 2 AFCC
Marv Levy - 5-4, 2 AFCC - 6-4, 2 AFCC

I'm sure I missed several. Still though, an interesting premise.

That One Guy
10-05-2009, 06:08 PM
If only one team in 32 wins the SB every year, it can hardly be held against a coach for not doing it in 5-10 years.

HAT
10-05-2009, 06:10 PM
As posted in Wolf's fire Shanny thread about 23 months ago......

Not going to harp on today's result or even last weeks b/c my point this entire thread has been the bigger picture.

SB Champ. / Coach / years as coach
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

colts / Dungy / 5th
pitt / Cowher / 13th
NE / Bellicheck / 5th
NE / Bellicheck / 4th
TB / Gruden / 1st
NE / Bellicheck / 2nd
Balt / Billick / 2nd
Stl / Dick4meal / 3rd
Den / Shanny / 4th
Den / Shanny / 3rd
GB / Holmgren / 5th
Dal / Switzer / 2nd
SF / Siefert / 6th
Dal / JJ / 5th
Dal / JJ / 4th
Wash / Gibbs / 11th
NYG / Parcells / 8th
SF / Siefert / 1st
SF / Walsh / 10th

(Got tired of searching after 20 years)

Clearly, it's pretty rare for a 10+ year tenured HC to strike gold....just like it is for a first or second year one. Years 3-6 are the money years.

Makes sense if you think about it. 1st & 2nd year coaches are usually inheriting terrible teams and need time to implement their own brand of football, with personell of their choosing & to build continuity. (Sans Siefert/Gruden). Long time HC's (9.10,11 + years) have either burntout, lost their ability to motivate or the game has just flat passed them by.

Let's see if Shanny can strike gold in 2008 (his 14th year). I don't care if they win it all, go 1 and done in the PO's or finish 6-10 again.....2008 needs to be his last year.

Let's make it current.......

SB Champ. / Coach / years as coach
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Pitt / Tomlin / 2nd
NYG / Coughlin / 4th


To answer the OP......5-7 may be to early if the current coach in question is still getting them to the playoffs regularly. No question though that 95+ % of the time change is in order after 9-10 years.

And for the record....I still believe Shanny has another SB in him, it just wasn't going to happen here.

broncosteven
10-06-2009, 03:27 PM
If only one team in 32 wins the SB every year, it can hardly be held against a coach for not doing it in 5-10 years.

Some owners don't care about winning the SB, they are just happy owning a team.

Mike Brown, Ford family, the McCaskets, Who ever owns the Browns. Sometimes their teams win and get the SB inspite of them, like AZ last year and McCaskets and the dude in Tampa.

I just thought that if an Owner really wanted to win and compete for a SB every couple years he should not stick with one guy instead keep his eyes open for talent and make moves earlier rather than later.

broncosteven
10-06-2009, 03:29 PM
Just a quick list I put together of coaches since the merger who spent long tenures with one team (at least 9-10 years) and did/did not fit Broncosteven's profile.

Coach Who Fit - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Andy Reid - 7-5, NFCC - 3-2
Jeff Fisher - 3-1, AFCC - 2-5
Tom Flores - 8-2, 2 SB - 0-1
Chuck Knox - 3-4 - 0-0
Marty Schottenheimer - 3-5 - 0-3
Mike Shanahan - 7-2, 2 SB - 1-3

Coach Who Did Not Fit - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Joe Gibbs - 8-3, SB, NFCC - 8-2, 2 SB
Dan Reeves - 2-3, AFCC - 5-3, 2 AFCC
Mike Holmgren - 0-2 - 4-3, NFCC
Bill Cowher - 5-6, AFCC - 7-3, SB

Coaches Somewhere in the Middle - Playoff Record Years 1-6 - Playoff Record Year 7+

Don Shula - 8-2, 2 SB, AFCC - 6-8, 2 AFCC
Marv Levy - 5-4, 2 AFCC - 6-4, 2 AFCC

I'm sure I missed several. Still though, an interesting premise.

Reid is a good guy to mention, he seems to win but can't get to the big game, I wonder if both he and the Eagles would be better off if he moved on.