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View Full Version : Shocking Statistic #1 - Kyle Orton: 0 Interceptions through 4 Weeks


epicSocialism4tw
10-05-2009, 12:58 AM
I think that just about every Bronco fan had some of those INT fears after Orton's preseason. Maybe he got the boneheaded plays out of the way quickly. Or maybe theyre just around the corner (knock on wood). After all, he did throw a left-handed red zone pick. Ha!

But seriously...congrats to Orton for clearly getting a grasp on what he needs to do in this offense and playing smart. Hopefully he'll continue to get more and more comfortable with this offense and the passing game will open up to him more as the season moves forward.

atomicbloke
10-05-2009, 01:01 AM
He's on pace for 20 TDs and 0 INTs for the season...

Of course it won't last...

But most fans will be happy with something like 16 TDs and 5 INTs for the season.

Archer81
10-05-2009, 01:12 AM
Shocking what happens when you give any QB time to throw and talent at the WR position...


:Broncos:

Popps
10-05-2009, 01:40 AM
98 QB rating through 4 games.

Damned fine.

Again, I'm the first to say that I really like Orton, but I'm not positive he's the long-term answer. That said, I really do think he'll improve as he settles in and gets that glove off.

What a job he's done. Some guys just have a way of winning. It's not pretty, but they get it done. Clearly, McD has him in a mindset that's working for him... and who cares if he doesn't have huge yardage numbers. I'd rather we let our D and running game keep us in games, and let Kyle take shots when they're there.

What a start. This guy was tossed into the middle of a ****-storm by no doing of his own. You have to be happy to see him having some success.

lex
10-05-2009, 01:44 AM
98 QB rating through 4 games.

Damned fine.

Again, I'm the first to say that I really like Orton, but I'm not positive he's the long-term answer. That said, I really do think he'll improve as he settles in and gets that glove off.

What a job he's done. Some guys just have a way of winning. It's not pretty, but they get it done. Clearly, McD has him in a mindset that's working for him... and who cares if he doesn't have huge yardage numbers. I'd rather we let our D and running game keep us in games, and let Kyle take shots when they're there.

What a start. This guy was tossed into the middle of a ****-storm by no doing of his own. You have to be happy to see him having some success.

Way to go out on a limb. LOL.

Taco John
10-05-2009, 01:55 AM
I actually don't think this is a very shocking statistic given the body of work that Orton has turned in. I think people put way too much stock in his pre-season kinks.

lex
10-05-2009, 02:01 AM
I actually don't think this is a very shocking statistic given the body of work that Orton has turned in. I think people put way too much stock in his pre-season kinks.

His body of work is an INT:ATT ratio that isnt THAT much better than Cutler's and thats with a lower degree of difficulty.

But he was actually kind of like this his rookie year when the Bears had a great defense and he knew he had to protect the ball. He wasnt horrible for a 4th round rookie pressed into service. It wasnt like he could win a game aside from possibly making a play here and there. That was kind of his MO his rookie year. More recently he's been more mistake prone as he has tried to do more. I cant remember what his stats were as a rookie. He may have thrown a few INTs but its relative to expectations.

Kaylore
10-05-2009, 02:06 AM
I believe Brandstater has a shot to be a good starter, but he's a few years away. And I think an opportunity to learn under Orton will be a boon to him. I'm fine with Orton. I'm excited to see what he looks like as they get in rhythm and the glove comes off.

Taco John
10-05-2009, 02:15 AM
Well, I watched a few Bears games last year because I'm a fan of Forte, and my impression of Kyle before I ever had even a ghost of an idea that he'd be a Broncos QB is that he didn't make a lot of errors. He went out, managed the game, played within himself, and took advantage of the system. The thing that I really like about Kyle is that he seems to know his limitations, and doesn't try to play outside of them. This is something that both Griese and Plummer had a lot of trouble with. If the team got into a situation, Griese and Plummer would try to push their limitations to make something happen. You don't see that sort of pressing with Orton. He seems very content to just play within himself and let the team around him operate - let the chips fall where they may.

What we haven't seen, though, is a concerted strategy to make Orton beat a team. That's where the rubber will meet the road. Unfortunately, Orton hasn't been able to make anybody pay with the deep ball yet. It may get there, but my sense going back even to what I remember from last season is that Orton's accuracy beyond 20 yards isn't there - at least not consistently. So we'll see.

lex
10-05-2009, 02:27 AM
Well, I watched a few Bears games last year because I'm a fan of Forte, and my impression of Kyle before I ever had even a ghost of an idea that he'd be a Broncos QB is that he didn't make a lot of errors. He went out, managed the game, played within himself, and took advantage of the system. The thing that I really like about Kyle is that he seems to know his limitations, and doesn't try to play outside of them. This is something that both Griese and Plummer had a lot of trouble with. If the team got into a situation, Griese and Plummer would try to push their limitations to make something happen. You don't see that sort of pressing with Orton. He seems very content to just play within himself and let the team around him operate - let the chips fall where they may.

What we haven't seen, though, is a concerted strategy to make Orton beat a team. That's where the rubber will meet the road. Unfortunately, Orton hasn't been able to make anybody pay with the deep ball yet. It may get there, but my sense going back even to what I remember from last season is that Orton's accuracy beyond 20 yards isn't there - at least not consistently. So we'll see.

One thing Orton struggles with is scanning for his receivers. He tends to lock on to guys at times. I agree with much of what you said otherwise. He has always played within himself and that was really evident when he was a rookie, as I mentioned.

All in all, Orton's career is kind of part to describe because when he was a rookie. He then spent a couple of years waiting behind Grossman and then last year he emerged but obviously he was more polished than he was as a rookie but maybe not what youd call "polished".

Lets not forget that even though he has no INTs to this point, he has made a few throws that could have been intercepted but werent. But there will also come a time when he has some INTs that werent his fault.

Taco John
10-05-2009, 02:31 AM
Lets not forget that even though he has no INTs to this point, he has made a few throws that could have been intercepted but werent. But there will also come a time when he has some INTs that werent his fault.


I personally never count non-interceptions. Interceptions are interceptions. Non-interceptions are incompletions.

lex
10-05-2009, 02:38 AM
I personally never count non-interceptions. Interceptions are interceptions. Non-interceptions are incompletions.


I dont either because, like I said, there are times when he does get picked when it was someone elses fault. So its problematic to get into all that except in certain contexts such as discussing how careful someone is with the ball.

chrisp
10-05-2009, 03:01 AM
I dont either because, like I said, there are times when he does get picked when it was someone elses fault. So its problematic to get into all that except in certain contexts such as discussing how careful someone is with the ball.

I think that stuff tends to balance itself out over the course of a season, but over just 4 games you can get lucky, so whilst Orton deserves some credit for not having thrown a pick yet, we may well find this stat deteriorates through no major fault of his own.


But he is erring on the side of caution at the moment, which is also why the stats look the way they do. That may ease up as he gets more comfortable or it may always be a knock on the guy - that he's over-cautious.

I think he is more inclined to take calculated risks later on in the game when there's less to lose. To key plays to Marshall, both the TD last night, and the key third-down completion late on that iced the game against the raiders, both balls were somewhat interceptable, and not perfect throws, but he put it somewhere that Marshall could make a play on the ball. Play like that could turn out to bite us later on, but it also serves as evidence that he is capable of taking risks when he has to...

chrisp
10-05-2009, 03:03 AM
Just want to add, right now I'm glad he's erring on the side of caution, but I think he's definitely missing some opportunities. It looked like McD was really angry with him for calling the timeout on third down late on (I think it was just before we kicked the field goal...) and I got the impression that even the coach may feel he's being too cautious at times...

lex
10-05-2009, 08:37 AM
I think that stuff tends to balance itself out over the course of a season, but over just 4 games you can get lucky, so whilst Orton deserves some credit for not having thrown a pick yet, we may well find this stat deteriorates through no major fault of his own.


But he is erring on the side of caution at the moment, which is also why the stats look the way they do. That may ease up as he gets more comfortable or it may always be a knock on the guy - that he's over-cautious.

I think he is more inclined to take calculated risks later on in the game when there's less to lose. To key plays to Marshall, both the TD last night, and the key third-down completion late on that iced the game against the raiders, both balls were somewhat interceptable, and not perfect throws, but he put it somewhere that Marshall could make a play on the ball. Play like that could turn out to bite us later on, but it also serves as evidence that he is capable of taking risks when he has to...


The first TD pass to Moreno could have easily been a pick. Plus there was a play where Orton forced one when down close to the goal line on that drive where we had to settle for a FG. But him getting sacked is him not wanting to put it up for grabs.

Rock Chalk
10-05-2009, 08:40 AM
More shocking is his 4th quarter stats IMO.

Broncoman13
10-05-2009, 09:02 AM
His body of work is an INT:ATT ratio that isnt THAT much better than Cutler's and thats with a lower degree of difficulty.



Are you talking career wise or so far this year???

lex
10-05-2009, 09:04 AM
Are you talking career wise or so far this year???


I think the stats I drilled into a while back were for last year. It wouldnt really be as relevant otherwise. Before last year the bulk of Orton's play was as a rookie.

yerner
10-05-2009, 09:09 AM
I just wish he would get the ball to Royal and Marshall more. The offense seems pretty average right now. Matchups with the wrs and even Hillis aren't being used as much as the should. Not complaining really, just wonder how they are not getting the best players the ball more to pressure defenses.

Bigdawg26
10-05-2009, 09:14 AM
Yeah he is really managing the game well, but he isn't the answer at quarterback. He very rarely stretches the field by going down field (just dink and donk down the field). Honestly he could have easily blew two games with throwing and pick against cincy but the corner had one foot out of bounds than if roy williams wouldnt have went for the kill shot he coulda pick it off. Also, If Brandon Marshall didn't take the ball away from Terrence Newman that could have/should have been a pick if Brandon wasn't so strong. I mean do I think he can manage a game yes, but do I trust him to win the close one no because those game winning plays could have gone the other way if not for great wide outs.

Garcia Bronco
10-05-2009, 09:15 AM
98 QB rating through 4 games.

Damned fine.

Again, I'm the first to say that I really like Orton, but I'm not positive he's the long-term answer. That said, I really do think he'll improve as he settles in and gets that glove off.

What a job he's done. Some guys just have a way of winning. It's not pretty, but they get it done. Clearly, McD has him in a mindset that's working for him... and who cares if he doesn't have huge yardage numbers. I'd rather we let our D and running game keep us in games, and let Kyle take shots when they're there.

What a start. This guy was tossed into the middle of a ****-storm by no doing of his own. You have to be happy to see him having some success.

Great post. I feel the same way.

Broncoman13
10-05-2009, 09:55 AM
I'm pretty torn on Orton. I was beyond frustrated in the first half yesterday. He missed a lot of open receivers. Not just on throws but on reads as well. There were at least three plays where he left a ton of yards (and TDs) on the field. The first and most obvious was the overthrow to Jab in the first Quarter. He was wide open and if he puts a little air under the ball and lets Jab run to it, it's at minimum a 50 yard gain and most likely a TD. The second one was along the goal line. His indecision after the PA allowed the defense to react. Kind of like the play that went to Eddie Royal, in the endzone he had a wide open TE. He missed the read. The final play that sticks out was in the 4th quarter (or late in the 3rd). He threw the ball to the side line... it was the 3rd quarter b/c we were going N-S. The pass was to a well covered Scheff and 20 yards down field. Incomplete. 6 yards away was a wide open Knowshon and there wasn't a defender within 15 yards of him. Exactly what we want, Knowshon in the open field.

Anyhow, after the game Kyle Orton commented on a couple of those plays so he knows that he can improve. And to his credit he has improved each week. He is throwing with a glove on and a bum finger so I'm doing my best to be patient. Not sure if he is the long term answer or not. I kind of think that anybody can improve with repetition so he could well be the long term answer. I really don't know... but he's doing enough to win games and that's really all that matters.

lex
10-05-2009, 09:59 AM
I'm pretty torn on Orton. I was beyond frustrated in the first half yesterday. He missed a lot of open receivers. Not just on throws but on reads as well. There were at least three plays where he left a ton of yards (and TDs) on the field. The first and most obvious was the overthrow to Jab in the first Quarter. He was wide open and if he puts a little air under the ball and lets Jab run to it, it's at minimum a 50 yard gain and most likely a TD. The second one was along the goal line. His indecision after the PA allowed the defense to react. Kind of like the play that went to Eddie Royal, in the endzone he had a wide open TE. He missed the read. The final play that sticks out was in the 4th quarter (or late in the 3rd). He threw the ball to the side line... it was the 3rd quarter b/c we were going N-S. The pass was to a well covered Scheff and 20 yards down field. Incomplete. 6 yards away was a wide open Knowshon and there wasn't a defender within 15 yards of him. Exactly what we want, Knowshon in the open field.

Anyhow, after the game Kyle Orton commented on a couple of those plays so he knows that he can improve. And to his credit he has improved each week. He is throwing with a glove on and a bum finger so I'm doing my best to be patient. Not sure if he is the long term answer or not. I kind of think that anybody can improve with repetition so he could well be the long term answer. I really don't know... but he's doing enough to win games and that's really all that matters.

I actually think Orton was right by leading Gaffney was he did. When you lead a WR in way where he flattens his route, you leave more margin for error and give the WR a better ability to adjust than when youre running away from the QB. Also, in this case, he would have been leading Gaffney way from the defense. It looked like Orton might have been throwing to an open space that Gaffney could run to.

TonyR
10-05-2009, 10:06 AM
I'm pretty torn on Orton. I was beyond frustrated in the first half yesterday.

I feel pretty much the same way. Another play that bugged me was the red zone pass to Moreno that got stopped on 3rd down. Brandon drew single coverage and he looked pretty frustrated that Orton didn't take a shot his way. Aikman pointed this out but of course hindsight is 20/20. Overall hard to complain with the results but there is certainly lots of room for improvement.

UberBroncoMan
10-05-2009, 10:34 AM
If our offense actually could finally live up to the talent that's on it we should be blowing out teams - controlling the clock, and our defense should be owning even more due to extended rest.

We had 6 INT's all last year... we have 6 in the first four games this year. Hell we're 11 sacks away from matching last years total too.

With the only REAL changes being a downgrade (talent wise) at QB and better RB's you'd think we'd be putting up the yards we did last year on offense...

A lot of this is learning system and bad deep ball's though.

I really really hope the O can just click, because if it does I know we'll make the playoffs... if it doesn't our D isn't going to be invincible forever.

spdirty
10-05-2009, 10:38 AM
I'm not positive he's the long-term answer.

Yikes! How dare you bash our beloved quarterback.

Broncomutt
10-05-2009, 10:41 AM
98 QB rating through 4 games.

Damned fine.

Again, I'm the first to say that I really like Orton, but I'm not positive he's the long-term answer. That said, I really do think he'll improve as he settles in and gets that glove off.

What a job he's done. Some guys just have a way of winning. It's not pretty, but they get it done. Clearly, McD has him in a mindset that's working for him... and who cares if he doesn't have huge yardage numbers. I'd rather we let our D and running game keep us in games, and let Kyle take shots when they're there.

What a start. This guy was tossed into the middle of a ****-storm by no doing of his own. You have to be happy to see him having some success.


What he said.

broncofan2438
10-05-2009, 10:43 AM
The announcers yesterday were saying how much they were impressed with Orton and that he and Marshall put in a lot of work

loborugger
10-05-2009, 10:50 AM
Orton was 20 or 29 for 243 yds and 2 TDs. When I saw that stat line, I was really surprised. I didnt think he played that well. And that is a pretty good stat line.

After 6 years of Plummer and Cutler, Denver fans are used to a LOT different QB play. Flashy throws, locking on recievers, fumbles, INTS that defy logic... Granted, both of those guys made some good plays. But its manic. One play is great, the next play is "Dear God, dont let him throw into triple coverage AGAIN!"

Orton's only play that was exciting was the throw to Knowshon that really shoulda been intercepted. Other than that, the dude is boring. I dont think we are used to boring QB play.

mwill07
10-05-2009, 10:52 AM
just for fun, here's Cassel's #s from the start of last year:


Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A
@ NYJ W 19-10 16 23 69.60% 165 0 0 89.9 7.17
MIA L 13-38 19 31 61.30% 131 1 1 68.1 4.23
@ SFO W 30-21 22 32 68.80% 259 1 2 77.5 8.09
@ SDG L 10-30 22 38 57.90% 203 0 1 61.6 5.34
DEN W 41-7 18 24 75.00% 185 3 0 136.3 7.71
STL W 23-16 21 33 63.60% 267 1 2 73.7 8.09
@ IND L 15-18 25 34 73.50% 204 0 1 76.1 6

one big game vs a terrible Den D, and a whole bunch of not very good outings.

After the indy game, here's what happened:
Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A
BUF W 20-10 22 32 68.80% 234 0 0 89.8 7.31
NYJ L 31-34 30 51 58.80% 400 3 0 103.4 7.84
@ MIA W 48-28 30 43 69.80% 415 3 1 114 9.65
PIT L 10-33 19 39 48.70% 169 0 2 39.4 4.33
@ SEA W 24-21 26 44 59.10% 268 1 0 84.3 6.09
@ OAK W 49-26 18 30 60.00% 218 4 1 108.1 7.27
ARI W 47-7 20 36 55.60% 345 3 0 116.1 9.58
@ BUF W 13-0 6 8 75.00% 78 0 0 105.2 9.75

much, much better down the stretch, minus the terrible game vs an outstanding Pitt D.

What this tells me is that it can take a while for a QB to fully grasp McD's offense. pre-season work doesn't help that much - it's all about seeing what happens in games and making the correct pre-snap reads. Corrections have to be made, bugs have to be worked out, it takes some time.

Couple the learning curve with the lacerated finger, and we should have expected Orton to struggle early. The fact that he isn't playing all that well but still putting up decent numbers is very encouraging, I've said in several posts already - this O looks like it is still a work in progress. Not all the pieces are fitting in and they are trying to find their way. Once the O gets tuned up and Orton is in sync, I think this O can match the D. At that point, Denver will be challenging SD for the division title.