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Rulon Velvet Jones
10-02-2009, 01:29 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/pickcenter?providerid=2&gameid=291004007

TeamRankings.com PicksType Pick Conf
Win Pick Broncos (2 of 3 stars "confidence")
ATS Pick Broncos (+3.0) (1 of 3 stars "confidence")

Win and ATS picks from our math models.
Pick confidence from 1 (low) to 3 (high) stars.
Visit TeamRankings.com for prediction tools.

Pick Performance HistoryWin Picks
Last Week 8-3 (73%) 5-0 (100%) 0-0 (0%)
Last 3 Weeks 16-11 (59%) 15-6 (71%) 0-0 (0%)
This Season 16-11 (59%) 15-6 (71%) 0-0 (0%)
ATS Picks
Last Week 7-9 (44%) 0-0 (0%) 0-0 (0%)
Last 3 Weeks 23-25 (48%) 0-0 (0%) 0-0 (0%)
This Season 23-25 (48%) 0-0 (0%) 0-0 (0%)

About Early Season PicksHistorically, the accuracy of our math models tends to improve as the current season plays out. In the early weeks of a new season, our models make no assumptions about the potential effects of off-season player, coaching, or strategy changes. Actual game results are all that matter.

The models primarily use data from last season for Week 1 picks, then gradually incorporate more current season data as games are played.

About TeamRankings.com PredictionsPredictions for this game were generated by 100% objective mathematical models developed by TeamRankings.com. These models leverage advanced statistics, power ratings, and proprietary data algorithms that analyze years of historical game and performance information.

How to Use Math Model PicksOur data driven predictive models help remove subjective bias and incorrect assumptions from the prediction process. They evaluate games from a purely objective standpoint, using over six seasons worth of quantitative information about teams, game situations, and game results.

However, certain game factors are difficult if not impossible to model effectively with hard data. Some examples include recent personnel changes, potential adverse weather, or the effectiveness of a team's advance preparation for a specific opponent.

As a result, math model predictions typically provide a solid foundation for an overall picking strategy. In addition, it can help to apply subjective adjustments for more "intangible" aspects of games, especially when evaluating picks against the point spread.

About TeamRankings.comSerious sports fans visit TeamRankings.com to get smart about the games they love. Developed by a team of Stanford engineers, our objective data and tools enable pick'em players and sports wagerers to make better decisions.

Team Performance SummariesThe Dallas Cowboys (2-1, #18 Overall power ranking) hit the road in Week 4, going 655 miles to battle #2 ranked Denver (3-0). In their last game, closing point spreads saw the Cowboys as a 3 point away favorite against #10 ranked New York. Dallas underperformed that expectation, losing by 2, 33-31, after being down by 3 at the half. The Cowboys are now 2-1-0 ATS.

Recently, Dallas has gone 2-1 and now ranks #18 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The Cowboys went 2-1-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the Cowboys score their highest marks in yards per rush attempt (5.6, #1 rank), opponent red zone scoring percentage (38.1%, #3 rank), and opponent third down conversion percentage (31.9%, #3 rank).

The Denver Broncos return home after a 23-3 away win against the Oakland Raiders. In their last game, the Broncos were a 1 point away favorite vs. #22 ranked Oakland. Denver greatly outperformed that expectation, winning by 20 after being up by 10 at the half. The Broncos are now 3-0-0 ATS.

In recent games, Denver has gone 3-0 and now ranks #2 in our Last 5 Games power ratings, which incorporate opponent strength and home/away status. The Broncos went 3-0-0 ATS in those games.

Statistically, the Broncos score their highest marks in yards per rush attempt (5.2, #2 rank), yards per game (397.0, #3 rank), and first downs per game (21.4, #5 rank).

Similar Historical MatchupsOur data driven algorithms have analyzed 1,650 regular season and post season NFL games since September 2003. Out of 75 historical matchups that featured teams statistically most similar to the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos:

The team like the Broncos won 57.8% of games, but only won 7 of the 15 most similar
The team like the Broncos covered 52.2% of games, but only covered in 6 of the 15 most similar
The table below presents the 15 most similar historical games identified by our data algorithms.

# Date Like DAL Like DEN Spread Score Win Cover
1 10/17/04 Washington at Chicago WAS -1.5 13-10 DAL DAL
2 09/28/08 Minnesota at Tennessee MIN +3.0 17-30 DEN DEN
3 10/17/04 Green Bay at Detroit GNB +1.5 38-10 DAL DAL
4 10/09/05 New England at Atlanta NWE +3.0 31-28 DAL DAL
5 09/20/09 New Orleans at Philadelphia NOR -2.5 48-22 DAL DAL
6 09/20/09 Seattle at San Francisco SEA +1.0 10-23 DEN DEN
7 09/09/07 Denver at Buffalo DEN -3.0 15-14 DAL DEN
8 09/14/08 Indianapolis at Minnesota IND -1.0 18-15 DAL DAL
9 10/02/05 Detroit at Tampa Bay DET +6.5 13-17 DEN DAL
10 09/27/09 Tennessee at NY Jets TEN +1.0 17-24 DEN DEN
11 09/28/08 Houston at Jacksonville HOU +6.5 27-30 DEN DAL
12 10/16/05 Minnesota at Chicago MIN +1.0 3-28 DEN DEN
13 10/19/03 Tennessee at Carolina TEN +1.5 37-17 DAL DAL
14 10/17/04 Seattle at New England SEA +4.5 20-30 DEN DEN
15 10/07/07 Chicago at Green Bay CHI +3.0 27-20 DAL DAL

Win/Loss RecordsRecord DAL Adv. DEN
Season 2-1 3-0
Last 5 Games 2-1 3-0
vs Top 25% 0-0 1-0
vs Top 50% 0-1 1-0
Streak W1 W3
Home/Away 1-0 2-0
ATS RecordsRecord DAL Adv. DEN
Season 2-1-0 3-0-0
Last 5 Games 2-1-0 3-0-0
vs Top 25% 0-0-0 1-0-0
vs Top 50% 0-1-0 1-0-0
Streak W1 W3
Home/Away 1-0-0 2-0-0
Offensive StatsStat DAL Adv. DEN
Points/Game 28.7 20.7
Avg Score Margin +8.3 +15.3
Yards/Game 429.7 374.3
Yards/Rush 6.8 4.7
Yards/Pass 8.0 7.4
Completion % 57.3% 55.7%
3D Conversion % 41.2% 41.0%
RZ Scoring % 60.0% 33.3%
Defensive/Other StatsStat DAL Adv. DEN
Opp Points/Game 20.3 5.3
TO Margin/Game -0.3 +2.0
Opp Yards/Game 382.7 214.7
Opp Yards/Rush 4.7 3.3
Opp Yards/Pass 7.1 4.8
Penalty Yds/Game 57.0 39.7
Opp 3D Conv % 33.3% 28.2%
Opp RZ Scoring % 37.5% 33.3%
Dallas Best/Worst StatsBest Stats Value Rank
Yards/Rush 5.6 1
Opp RZ Scoring % 38.1% 3
Opp 3D Conv % 31.9% 3
Opp FG Conv % 75.0% 4
FG Conversion % 90.9% 8
Worst Stats Value Rank
Penalty Yds/Game 62.1 32
TO Margin/Game -1.0 30
Completion % 56.8% 28
Opp Yards/Rush 4.7 25
Interception % 1.8% 25
SOS PR 20.0 30
Denver Best/Worst StatsBest Stats Value Rank
Yards/Rush 5.2 2
Yards/Game 397.0 3
First Downs/Game 21.4 5
3D Conversion % 46.6% 6
Opp FDs/Game 16.6 7
Worst Stats Value Rank
RZ Scoring % 40.0% 30
Opp FG Conv % 100.0% 27
Opp RZ Scoring % 66.7% 26
FG Conversion % 75.0% 25
Opp Yards/Rush 4.5 20
SOS PR 22.2 26

cmhargrove
10-02-2009, 01:33 PM
I thought football was a game where you hit people and ran the ball.

Is it really a game for math geeks?

Rocket 7
10-02-2009, 01:46 PM
I thought football was a game where you hit people and ran the ball.

Is it really a game for math geeks?

Unless you play Marty ball. Just need to get the gleam.

cousinal11
10-02-2009, 02:22 PM
2 of 3 stars for a Bronco win, but only 1 of 3 for Broncos to cover spread (+3).

Yeah, that makes sense.

Don Flamenco
10-02-2009, 03:05 PM
Frat!

Chris
10-02-2009, 03:08 PM
http://science.kukuchew.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/chris-farley-photograph-c10101992-fat-neck.jpeg