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ak1971
06-20-2013, 06:15 PM
Wasnt this supposed to be over $2K by now...

http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk298/AK7745/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif (http://s283.photobucket.com/user/AK7745/media/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif.html)

El Minion
06-20-2013, 06:21 PM
Gold will never go below $1500/oz again.

???

Wasnt this supposed to be over $2K by now...

http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk298/AK7745/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif (http://s283.photobucket.com/user/AK7745/media/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif.html)

Arkie
06-21-2013, 09:40 AM
I admit when I'm wrong. I never thought the price would fall below $1500. It's not as ridiculous as the OP and other posts on the first page saying gold was in a bubble 4 years ago at $1000. When we have a short-term spike, gold is in a bubble. It's a bad investment. When we have a short-term collapse, gold is becoming worthless. It's a bad investment. That's how some people see it.

When you look back at the stock supercycle, stocks collapsed in '87, 89, 90, 94, 97, 98. And every time, people said the bull market is over, but it wasn't until 2000. The gold supercycle began over a decade ago. A 6 month chart showing a collapse doesn't change anything. I'm shocked how cheap gold is currently selling, or how much more of a profit you'll make at the end of this long term cycle.

baja
06-21-2013, 09:47 AM
Buy Buy Buy

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 11:34 AM
Buy Buy Buy

Why, why, why? ;)

Gold doesn't pay a dividend, can be subject to 28% tax, mining stocks are the only sensible option and they are subject to market downturns.

Gold took over 30 years to recover from its last slump and only an exceptional, near depression, gave it legs enough to climb in value. It's a very speculative investment at best and even while stocks are sliding, gold is too.

It may well go lower yet....closer to $1k than $1500. But it's all guesswork with metals.

baja
06-21-2013, 11:41 AM
Why, why, why? ;)

Gold doesn't pay a dividend, can be subject to 28% tax, mining stocks are the only sensible option and they are subject to market downturns.

Gold took over 30 years to recover from its last slump and only an exceptional, near depression, gave it legs enough to climb in value. It's a very speculative investment at best and even while stocks are sliding, gold is too.

It may well go lower yet....closer to $1k than $1500. But it's all guesswork with metals.

Suit yourself.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 11:48 AM
Suit yourself.

So you don't have a reason, just a reaction. Facts too much for ya? :clown:

baja
06-21-2013, 11:58 AM
So you don't have a reason, just a reaction. Facts too much for ya? :clown:


It's not my job to convince you gold is a good thing to own during these economically tumultuous times. It will be come a substitute currency as it always has throughout history.

Paul Greg Roberts -
I was the first to point out that the Federal Reserve was rigging all markets, not merely bond prices and interest rates, and that the Fed is rigging the bullion market in order to protect the US dollar’s exchange value, which is threatened by the Fed’s quantitative easing. With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is increasing, the price or exchange value of the dollar is set up to fall.

A fall in the dollar’s exchange rate would push up import prices and, thereby, domestic inflation, and the Fed would lose control over interest rates. The bond market would collapse and with it the values of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big too fail” balance sheets. The financial system would be in turmoil, and panic would reign.

Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.

According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.

A naked short is when the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do not need to be covered with the physical metal.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-craig-roberts/

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 12:22 PM
It's not my job to convince you gold is a good thing to own during these economically tumultuous times. It will be come a substitute currency as it always has throughout history.

Paul Greg Roberts -
I was the first to point out that the Federal Reserve was rigging all markets, not merely bond prices and interest rates, and that the Fed is rigging the bullion market in order to protect the US dollar’s exchange value, which is threatened by the Fed’s quantitative easing. With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is increasing, the price or exchange value of the dollar is set up to fall.

A fall in the dollar’s exchange rate would push up import prices and, thereby, domestic inflation, and the Fed would lose control over interest rates. The bond market would collapse and with it the values of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big too fail” balance sheets. The financial system would be in turmoil, and panic would reign.

Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.

According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.

A naked short is when the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do not need to be covered with the physical metal.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-craig-roberts/

LOL.

Alex Jones used PCR's bs, along with a couple of other conspiracy nuts, to make that looney claim.

It is utter bull**** and worthy of Gaffney and his wacko theories. But go ahead and pour everything you have into gold, if you haven't already.

Rohirrim
06-21-2013, 12:23 PM
Do what the rich guys do: Invest in broad spectrum stocks for the long term and internationalize your portfolio as a currency hedge.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 12:35 PM
Do what the rich guys do: Invest in broad spectrum stocks for the long term and internationalize your portfolio as a currency hedge.

Pretty much. I prefer dividend stocks so I get income even when the ****-hits-the fan.

baja
06-21-2013, 12:47 PM
LOL.

Alex Jones used PCR's bs, along with a couple of other conspiracy nuts, to make that looney claim.

It is utter bull**** and worthy of Gaffney and his wacko theories. But go ahead and pour everything you have into gold, if you haven't already.


Than I guess all I have to add is **** you

Yu should be able to check if in fact the fed is shorting gold.


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Assault On Gold Update -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org
www.paulcraigroberts.org/ 2013/ 04/ 13/ assault-on-gold-update-paul-craig-roberts/ - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
13 Apr 2013 ... With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that ... up on physical gold at the low prices made possible by the short selling.
The Fed's Assault On Gold: “Short Selling” and ... - Global Research
www.globalresearch.ca/ the-feds-assault-on-gold-short-selling-and-the-rigging-of-the-gold-ma rket/ 5331359 - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
15 Apr 2013 ... The Fed's Assault On Gold: “Short Selling” and the Rigging of the Gold ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that ...
The Assault On Gold: The Fed's Attempt to “Scare People Away ...
www.globalresearch.ca/ the-assault-on-gold-the-feds-attempt-to-scare-people-away-from-gold-a nd-silver/ 5330015 - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
5 Apr 2013 ... When gold prices hit $1,917.50 an ounce on August 23, 2011, ... The Federal Reserve used its dependent “banks too big to fail” to short the precious metals markets. By selling naked shorts in the paper bullion market against the rising ... the Federal Reserve was able to drive the
Federal Reserve's Attack on Gold & Silver A Warning Sign All ...
www.americanfreepress.net/?p=9899 - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
24 Apr 2013 ... By selling naked shorts in the paper bullion market against the rising demand ... The Federal Reserve began its April Fool's assault on gold by sending the ... Short sales that drive down the price, trigger stop-loss orders that ...
Why Is Gold Crashing? | Zero Hedge
www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-04-15/why-gold-crashing - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
15 Apr 2013 ... The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1540 which was ... James Rickards thinks the Fed is manipulating the gold market (and every ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that ...
After Gold Crash, Experts Point to Central Bank Manipulation
www.thenewamerican.com/ economy/ markets/ item/ 15116-after-gold-crash-experts-point-to-central-bank-manipulation - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
16 Apr 2013 ... “The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that ... actual metal with which to back up the short selling, they could be met with ...
*****Gold Manipulation And Naked Short Selling Are ONE ...
www.marketskeptics.com/ 2011/ 12/ gold-manipulation-and-naked-short-selling-are-one-conspiracy.html - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
5 Dec 2011 ... This is often referred to as “NAKED SHORT SELLING.” Hedge funds use this tactic to flood the market with supply and drive down prices ...
Gold Crashes Most in 30 Years … What Does It Really Mean ...
www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/04/why-is-gold-crashing.html - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
15 Apr 2013 ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that .... You know it is time to sell your gold when the Fed funds rate is 10%+ and ...
Fed's Assault On Gold Futile...Dollar Collapse Inevitable... | Economy
www.beforeitsnews.com/ economy/ 2013/ 04/ feds-assault-on-gold-futile-dollar-collapse-inevitable-2509336.html - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
10 Apr 2013 ... When gold prices hit $1,917.50 an ounce on August 23, 2011, a gain ... The Federal Reserve used its dependent “banks too big to fail” to short the precious metals markets. By selling naked shorts in the paper bullion market against the ... Federal Reserve was able to drive the pr
The Fed's Assault On Gold: “Short Selling” and the Rigging of the ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2203792/pg1 - View by Ixquick Proxy - Highlight
The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect ... Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that ...
1 2345678910 Next >>

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:09 PM
Baja, every one of the 'Feds shorting gold' claims are either PCR or they are attributed to him. Did you read what you linked? If you did, then you'd know that the more rational of those links offer many realistic and factual causes for gold prices dropping, but none have the Feds shorting gold.

On the contrary, the run up of gold prices have been attributed to the fed and their policies.

One of the reasons why the price of gold has been so well-bid in recent years is a direct result of the Fed’s policy — the new dollars created under so-called quantitative easing have found themselves recycled in financial markets and many of them have gone to the perceived haven of gold.

The collapse in prices has been foreshadowed by a string of bearish calls by analysts. In February Credit Suisse predicted the market had already peaked; Société Générale said the “end of the gold era” was nigh; and last week Goldman Sachs recommended investors short the metal.
.........

“Since [stocks vs. gold bottomed in 2011], the fever has begun to break,” he writes. “Washington is fractious, but not like it was in 2011. Housing, which was central to America’s national malaise, has begun to turn around for real.”

“So ultimately, the decline of gold and the rise of stocks is a big trend that everyone should cheer.”


The only 'conspiracy' is from those who totally got gold's ascent 'wrong' and are now looking for excuses to cover their asses. They never understood gold and what makes it move in the first place, they just parroted the 'end of the world' mantra.

baja
06-21-2013, 01:15 PM
After Gold Crash, Experts Point to Central Bank Manipulation


In the wake of gold prices cratering in recent days, more than a few prominent experts have already started pinning the blame on Western central banks — especially the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). According to numerous analysts, the central bankers are desperate to salvage their fiat currencies and eliminate competition as "monetary authorities" continue to create ever-greater quantities of euros and dollars out of thin air.

Some experts, whistleblowers, traders, and former officials say the Fed dumped as much as 400 or even 500 tons of “paper gold” on the market — metals that it might not even have — as part of a naked short sale aimed at driving down the prices. Other analysts, especially among the establishment, pointed to the ECB chief’s recent suggestion that struggling European authorities in countries such as Cyprus would have to sell their precious metals to keep receiving bailouts.



http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets/item/15116-after-gold-crash-experts-point-to-central-bank-manipulation

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:16 PM
As price of gold falls, conspiracy theories rise

Pity the poor gold bugs. After a terrific decade-long run up the mountain, their favourite metal has slid into a deep crevasse, all while they wait patiently for their most fervently held beliefs to come true.

Sadly, the U.S. dollar is showing no signs of collapsing, the euro is still with us and deflation remains a bigger concern than inflation in most key economies, despite the most aggressive global monetary easing in history. Not even heightened geopolitical risks thanks, to the Kim family kleptocracy, could prevent a dramatic decline that culminated Monday in the biggest one-day fall for gold in 30 years.

And when it comes to falling gold prices, conspiracy theories can’t be far behind. The current list includes Cyprus’s plan to sell off some $500-million worth of gold from its reserves – the largest bullion sale in the euro zone in four years – to meet its soaring obligations, which would quickly be followed by similar gold sales from much bigger stashes held by Italy, Portugal and other deficit-ridden members of the euro zone.

The latest theory involves a plot by the Federal Reserve and other central banks (usually at the heart of most gold conspiracies) and the big investment banks to cause panic-selling and get the general public out of the market..........................

...........So there you have it. There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with gold’s fundamentals, and there’s usually a secret plot behind every sharp decline. Rarely do we hear of a conspiracy at work when prices go in the other direction.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/as-price-of-gold-falls-conspiracy-theories-rise/article11245980/

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:21 PM
After Gold Crash, Experts Point to Central Bank Manipulation


In the wake of gold prices cratering in recent days, more than a few prominent experts have already started pinning the blame on Western central banks — especially the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). According to numerous analysts, the central bankers are desperate to salvage their fiat currencies and eliminate competition as "monetary authorities" continue to create ever-greater quantities of euros and dollars out of thin air.

Some experts, whistleblowers, traders, and former officials say the Fed dumped as much as 400 or even 500 tons of “paper gold” on the market — metals that it might not even have — as part of a naked short sale aimed at driving down the prices. Other analysts, especially among the establishment, pointed to the ECB chief’s recent suggestion that struggling European authorities in countries such as Cyprus would have to sell their precious metals to keep receiving bailouts.



http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets/item/15116-after-gold-crash-experts-point-to-central-bank-manipulation

LOL

From your link: Economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, assistant treasury secretary during the Reagan administration and former editor of the Wall Street Journal, is one of many experts who argue that the recent collapse in gold and silver prices was carefully orchestrated by the Fed and a coalition of allied mega-banks. In a widely cited analysis of the recent plunge in precious metals entitled “Assault On Gold Update,” he said the U.S. central bank was “rigging all markets” — bond prices, interest rates, and of course, the bullion market.


You keep using PCR and his 'conspiracy' theories as a foundation for your argument. Didn't you predict gold prices would go off into the stratosphere because the world's economies are about to crash and currency will be worthless....or was it Gaffney....or both of you?

Fedaykin
06-21-2013, 01:22 PM
If you want to buy and store metals as an investment -- **** gold. You want to invest in

* copper/zinc
* lead

baja
06-21-2013, 01:22 PM
All you have to do is call it a conspiracy theory and poof it's a ridiculed non story.

If it's not from the highly controlled main stream media than it's gotta be a conspiracy theory. So willing to believe all is well.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:26 PM
]All you have to do is call it a conspiracy theory and poof it's a ridiculed non story.
[/B]
If it's not from the highly controlled main stream media than it's gotta be a conspiracy theory. So willing to believe all is well.

It's what every sane analysts calls those absurd explanations to normal events. Gold prices have ALWAYS responded to people's fears about the economy and as those fears recede, so do gold prices.

What's you conspiracy theory to account for gold's run in the first place?

Or do your theories only kick in when you're wrong? ;)

baja
06-21-2013, 01:29 PM
It's what every sane analysts calls those absurd explanations to normal events. Gold prices have ALWAYS responded to people's fears about the economy and as those fears recede, so do gold prices.

What's you conspiracy theory to account for gold's run in the first place?

Or do your theories only kick in when you're wrong? ;)


Of course it's demand driven never said it wasn't

do you agree selling short futures of gold will drive prices down if the volume is large enough?

Do you know for a fact the fed is not shorting gold futures?

mhgaffney
06-21-2013, 01:36 PM
What does it mean?

Curious that the latest drastic manipulation (by the Fed) of gold and silver down

occurs simultaneous with Bernanke's announcement on Thursday that the Fed will start easing back on Quantitive Easing in September --

You think these are not connected? Of course they are!

Analysis: The Fed is in deep trouble. They can't continue with QE because it is destroying the dollar. But they can't stop either because then the big banks will fail. The too big to fail banks need continuous infusions of free money from the Fed simply to stay afloat. The 2008 bail out was only the start -- it has continued ever since.

Bernanke is warning us that in September the Fed will set in motion a controlled crash. The announcement alone caused a 300 point drop in the Dow. Imagine what will happen when the QE cutbacks start.

The simultaneous manipulation of gold/silver is intended to strengthen the dollar. To maintain confidence. This manipulation is illegal -- if you or I did this we would go to prison. But the Fed does it with impunity because the SEC is controlled by the Fed.

Conclusion: buy gold now if you can find it. Get ready for the coming meltdown.
MHG

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:40 PM
Of course it's demand driven never said it wasn't

do you agree selling short futures of gold will drive prices down if the volume is large enough?

Do you know for a fact the fed is not shorting gold futures?

I don't need to, show proof they did, it's your assertion, not mine.

But I do know that if they were, it would be widely known, yet only the resident kook, PCR is the one making the claim.

Persons and institutions making 'shorts' have to be identified, they can't be anonymous or hidden, the brokerage has to know who their client is. If the Feds were 'shorting' the world would know and the investigation and impeachment would be underway. You think the Fed hating Tea Party wouldn't be all over this?

PCR is bull****ing to fit his long held conspiracy theories.....and I think you know that.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 01:42 PM
What does it mean?

Curious that the latest drastic manipulation (by the Fed) of gold and silver down

occurs simultaneous with Bernanke's announcement on Thursday that the Fed will start easing back on Quantitive Easing in September --

You think these are not connected? Of course they are!

Analysis: The Fed is in deep trouble. They can't continue with QE because it is destroying the dollar. But they can't stop either because then the big banks will fail. The too big to fail banks need continuous infusions of free money from the Fed simply to stay afloat. The 2008 bail out was only the start -- it has continued ever since.

Bernanke is warning us that in September the Fed will set in motion a controlled crash. The announcement alone caused a 300 point drop in the Dow. Imagine what will happen when the QE cutbacks start.

The simultaneous manipulation of gold/silver is intended to strengthen the dollar. To maintain confidence. This manipulation is illegal -- if you or I did this we would go to prison. But the Fed does it with impunity because the SEC is controlled by the Fed.

Conclusion: buy gold now if you can find it. Get ready for the coming meltdown.
MHG

Hilarious! The resident idiot on cue. Grow a pair Gaffney, you're a pussy at the first sign of trouble.

mhgaffney
06-21-2013, 01:46 PM
Bernanke is telling us that the Bull stock market is over -- or will be soon. Retards like Brit won't find out until the market bites them in the shorts.

Some idiots just never learn.

baja
06-21-2013, 01:54 PM
I don't need to, show proof they did, it's your assertion, not mine.

But I do know that if they were, it would be widely known, yet only the resident kook, PCR is the one making the claim.

Persons and institutions making 'shorts' have to be identified, they can't be anonymous or hidden, the brokerage has to know who their client is. If the Feds were 'shorting' the world would know and the investigation and impeachment would be underway. You think the Fed hating Tea Party wouldn't be all over this?

PCR is bull****ing to fit his long held conspiracy theories.....and I think you know that.

I am not invested in convincing you of anything. I don't care how you chose to invest, it's non of my business.


My position is buying gold is the play and will be until the fiat money system is dumped in favor of asset backed currencies. There will be a global reset of currencies, it is inevitable . The fiat ponzi scheme has run it predictable course. I am sure you will invest as you see fit as will I.

mhgaffney
06-21-2013, 02:00 PM
Wasnt this supposed to be over $2K by now...

http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk298/AK7745/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif (http://s283.photobucket.com/user/AK7745/media/au2013_zpsb9bfaf9b.gif.html)

Your chart tells only part of the story.

Here's the full chart showing the steady rise in gold after the September 11 attacks. Note the 2008 meltdown caused only a brief blip. The price went up even more steeply after it.

Then in 2011 the Fed began illegally manipulating the market. Is this too big for you to get your brain around?
MHG

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 02:28 PM
Bernanke is telling us that the Bull stock market is over -- or will be soon. Retards like Brit won't find out until the market bites them in the shorts.

Some idiots just never learn.

You know nothing about investing, you've shown that over the years.

You're describing 'opportunity,' but as you're both clueless and can only make a buck from someone's tragedy, it will pass you by, just like the rest of your sad little life.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 02:31 PM
Your chart tells only part of the story.

Here's the full chart showing the steady rise in gold after the September 11 attacks. Note the 2008 meltdown caused only a brief blip. The price went up even more steeply after it.

Then in 2011 the Fed began illegally manipulating the market. Is this too big for you to get your brain around?
MHG

ROFL! Christ, you miss the obvious even when it's a chart. Gold followed it's normal trajectory after a crisis or event of that magnitude. There was no manipulation, it was an historical norm, you are one clueless idiot.

mhgaffney
06-21-2013, 04:03 PM
ROFL! Christ, you miss the obvious even when it's a chart. Gold followed it's normal trajectory after a crisis or event of that magnitude. There was no manipulation, it was an historical norm, you are one clueless idiot.

Its normal trajectory?

Where'd you read that, in the Wall Street Journal?

hahahahahahahahaa

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 05:18 PM
Its normal trajectory?

Where'd you read that, in the Wall Street Journal?

hahahahahahahahaa

Deranged much? :loopy:

Gold has a history, but you have never let facts get in your way when lying through your teeth to connect your imaginary dots.

mhgaffney
06-21-2013, 05:29 PM
Deranged much? :loopy:

Gold has a history, but you have never let facts get in your way when lying through your teeth to connect your imaginary dots.

Gold has a history, yes, and so does the US intelligence community, which you know zero about.

Why don't you admit that you are only in it for numero uno, yourself, as in: me, me, me, me?

You are just another selfish bastard, just another greedy materialistic American.

You think because you've made money in the markets that you are now an expert.

In the coming daze lots of guys just like you are going to be ground up and plowed under. Grist for the New World Odor -- and I do mean odor.

It is going to stink to high heaven.

Bernanke has given a clear signal that the markets will soon be shaken. But fools like Brit who drank the kool aide listen only to themselves.

MHG

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 05:38 PM
Just follow the instructions before you hurt yourself.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dV25edwMZdA/TdrIMm3XXMI/AAAAAAAAG8w/SiNw8z7O5mw/s1600/child%2Bproof%2Bcap.jpg

houghtam
06-21-2013, 07:09 PM
Gold has a history, yes, and so does the US intelligence community, which you know zero about.

Why don't you admit that you are only in it for numero uno, yourself, as in: me, me, me, me?

You are just another selfish bastard, just another greedy materialistic American.

You think because you've made money in the markets that you are now an expert.

In the coming daze lots of guys just like you are going to be ground up and plowed under. Grist for the New World Odor -- and I do mean odor.

It is going to stink to high heaven.

Bernanke has given a clear signal that the markets will soon be shaken. But fools like Brit who drank the kool aide listen only to themselves.

MHG

Soon? How soon? Any firm date? Otherwise it's just more of your "doom and gloom soon" mantra, steeped and generalities and mixed with vagaries for a nice BS Tea.

DenverBrit
06-21-2013, 07:51 PM
Soon? How soon? Any firm date? Otherwise it's just more of your "doom and gloom soon" mantra, steeped and generalities and mixed with vagaries for a nice BS Tea.

The market is due a correction, even more so now the fed has hinted at slowing its monthly buying of bonds.

Gaffney is parroting what he's read and attempting to make it another conspiracy, he's otherwise clueless.

ak1971
06-21-2013, 11:11 PM
Bernanke is telling us that the Bull stock market is over -- or will be soon. Retards like Brit won't find out until the market bites them in the shorts.

Some idiots just never learn.

ok....so tell me what I should invest in. genius..

http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk298/AK7745/tin_foil_hat_cat_man_zps93bb74a0.jpg (http://s283.photobucket.com/user/AK7745/media/tin_foil_hat_cat_man_zps93bb74a0.jpg.html)

DenverBrit
06-22-2013, 09:51 AM
ok....so tell me what I should invest in. genius..

http://i283.photobucket.com/albums/kk298/AK7745/tin_foil_hat_cat_man_zps93bb74a0.jpg (http://s283.photobucket.com/user/AK7745/media/tin_foil_hat_cat_man_zps93bb74a0.jpg.html)

Gaffney will only get worse, so.........

http://forthemommas.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/reynolds-wrap.png

Arkie
06-22-2013, 12:49 PM
ROFL! Christ, you miss the obvious even when it's a chart. Gold followed it's normal trajectory after a crisis or event of that magnitude. There was no manipulation, it was an historical norm, you are one clueless idiot.

9/11 had very little to do with gold's trajectory. It slowly went up about $25/yr after 9/11. It was around 2006 when more and more savvy investors began to see the upcoming financial crisis that accelerated the rise in gold. It was becoming clear that quantitative easing was inevitable, that government would have to pick winners and losers, that the debt ceiling would have to rise higher and more frequently, etc. Our economic model is flawed. The markets will crash if they pull back on QE, but that can't go on forever. The debt will only decline through inflation or default, and both make gold more expensive.

DenverBrit
06-22-2013, 01:35 PM
9/11 had very little to do with gold's trajectory. It slowly went up about $25/yr after 9/11. It was around 2006 when more and more savvy investors began to see the upcoming financial crisis that accelerated the rise in gold. It was becoming clear that quantitative easing was inevitable, that government would have to pick winners and losers, that the debt ceiling would have to rise higher and more frequently, etc. Our economic model is flawed. The markets will crash if they pull back on QE, but that can't go on forever. The debt will only decline through inflation or default, and both make gold more expensive.

I was talking about 2008 and the financial meltdown. ;)

edit. Ok, I see what you're looking at. I bolded his entire statement while responding to his 2008 comment.

DenverBrit
06-22-2013, 01:44 PM
9/11 had very little to do with gold's trajectory. It slowly went up about $25/yr after 9/11. It was around 2006 when more and more savvy investors began to see the upcoming financial crisis that accelerated the rise in gold. It was becoming clear that quantitative easing was inevitable, that government would have to pick winners and losers, that the debt ceiling would have to rise higher and more frequently, etc. Our economic model is flawed. The markets will crash if they pull back on QE, but that can't go on forever. The debt will only decline through inflation or default, and both make gold more expensive.

Only if the quarterly data doesn't justify the easing.

The market has been expecting a correction for a few months now, and since the Fed announcement, bonds will likely take a dive....as will equities, but a crash would mean more significant bad news. ie, unemployment rising or stagnant, manufacturing, housing numbers dropping etc.

Time will tell if the Feds are right about the economy, and there is no guarantee they won't continue to support bonds if the data looks fragile.

W*GS
06-22-2013, 02:34 PM
You are just another selfish bastard, just another greedy materialistic American.

Sayeth the guy who's always trying to pimp his "books" here, cashing in on the victims of 9/11 for his own personal gain.

mhgaffney
06-23-2013, 03:28 PM
Only if the quarterly data doesn't justify the easing.

The market has been expecting a correction for a few months now, and since the Fed announcement, bonds will likely take a dive....as will equities, but a crash would mean more significant bad news. ie, unemployment rising or stagnant, manufacturing, housing numbers dropping etc.

Time will tell if the Feds are right about the economy, and there is no guarantee they won't continue to support bonds if the data looks fragile.

Speak English, anyone? WTF does this even mean?

The truth is that the QE is nothing but a continuance of the 2008 bail out -- which the too big to fails must have to stay afloat. Unfortunately the Fed and the US gov't have committed to this agenda -- much to the nation's detriment.

For the record, I have never claimed to be an investor -- only a writer. That's evidently too much to get your itsy-bitsy mind around.
MHG

DenverBrit
06-23-2013, 07:46 PM
Speak English, anyone? WTF does this even mean?

The truth is that the QE is nothing but a continuance of the 2008 bail out -- which the too big to fails must have to stay afloat. Unfortunately the Fed and the US gov't have committed to this agenda -- much to the nation's detriment.

For the record, I have never claimed to be an investor -- only a writer. That's evidently too much to get your itsy-bitsy mind around.
MHG

Shouldn't a 'writer'....and I use the term loosely, have access to a thesaurus??

Easing: Reduction, decrease, relaxation.

If the rest of the sentence is beyond your comprehension, then your claim to being a 'writer' is as nonsensical as your looney 911 theories.

As for you not being an 'investor,' I doubt anyone would have thought otherwise.

Go do an honest days work instead of leaching off the victims of 911.

Garcia Bronco
06-24-2013, 10:39 AM
**** guys...now it's time to buy...well wait 30 days or so but I think Silver is the best way to go because you can get more of it for a hedge later on.

broncocalijohn
06-24-2013, 01:28 PM
**** guys...now it's time to buy...well wait 30 days or so but I think Silver is the best way to go because you can get more of it for a hedge later on.

33% lower year to date.

baja
06-24-2013, 01:32 PM
Gold & silver is not acquired as an investment. It is a hedge on inflation and an instrument of barter when an economy collapses IE the fiat system that is on life support as you read this.

Garcia Bronco
06-24-2013, 01:38 PM
33% lower year to date.

I bet it goes lower still in the next 30 days or so.

Garcia Bronco
06-24-2013, 01:40 PM
Speak English, anyone? WTF does this even mean?

The truth is that the QE is nothing but a continuance of the 2008 bail out -- which the too big to fails must have to stay afloat. Unfortunately the Fed and the US gov't have committed to this agenda -- much to the nation's detriment.

For the record, I have never claimed to be an investor -- only a writer. That's evidently too much to get your itsy-bitsy mind around.
MHG

QE is about manipulating an equation to equilibrium. And finlaly they are making plans to taper it off so we have some real ****ing interest rates. And while the rest of the world is lowering their, we'll be raising ours.

We still drive the ship, bro.

houghtam
06-24-2013, 01:43 PM
Gold & silver is not acquired as an investment. It is a hedge on inflation and an instrument of barter when an economy collapses IE the fiat system that is on life support as you read this.

In a true barter economy after the collapse you keep talking about, your gold will be worth less than my beet seeds.

baja
06-24-2013, 02:01 PM
In a true barter economy after the collapse you keep talking about, your gold will be worth less than my beet seeds.


Actually your can of Spam will trump both gold and seeds as will cigarettes.

Gold and Silver will have value during the rebuilding process.

The most valuable instrument one can possess in these times is a Spiritual relationship with your Maker.

W*GS
06-24-2013, 02:05 PM
The most valuable instrument one can possess in these times is a Spiritual relationship with your Maker.

Meaning? Most of us will be dead and thus our souls need to know where to go?

Or just pure gobbledygook?

baja
06-24-2013, 02:12 PM
Meaning? Most of us will be dead and thus our souls need to know where to go?

Or just pure gobbledygook?

I am not surprised you have to ask this Wags.


A true connection with the Spiritual Source is really all that truly matters

It is what Shakespeare was referring to with "To be or not to be that is the question."

houghtam
06-24-2013, 02:15 PM
I am not surprised you have to ask this Wags.


A true connection with the Spiritual Source is really all that truly matters

It is what Shakespeare was referring to with "To be or not to be that is the question."

Sounds to me you need to re-read Hamlet. That's not at all what it is referring to, and with "wherefore art thou Romeo", this is the most misinterpreted quote of his (their) entire collection of work.

mhgaffney
06-24-2013, 02:37 PM
QE is about manipulating an equation to equilibrium. And finlaly they are making plans to taper it off so we have some real ****ing interest rates. And while the rest of the world is lowering their, we'll be raising ours.

We still drive the ship, bro.

They can't raise interest rates or the bond market will collapse.

They are stuck. They can't go forward and can't stand still.

They can't continue the QE or they crash the dollar. But they can't stop QE or the too big to fail banks go under.

I wouldn't want to be in Bernanke's shoes, right now.

MHG

DenverBrit
06-24-2013, 03:00 PM
They can't raise interest rates or the bond market will collapse.

They are stuck. They can't go forward and can't stand still.

They can't continue the QE or they crash the dollar. But they can't stop QE or the too big to fail banks go under.

I wouldn't want to be in Bernanke's shoes, right now.

MHG

And yet, one or other will happen. ::)

broncocalijohn
06-24-2013, 09:46 PM
In a true barter economy after the collapse you keep talking about, your gold will be worth less than my beet seeds.

I will be living high and mighty off of sun rays and will therefore be in the market to sell some of my sun rays for gold. **** beet seeds. The beet juice will run into my other good food and destroy it.

ak1971
06-24-2013, 09:54 PM
Actually your can of Spam will trump both gold and seeds as will cigarettes.

Gold and Silver will have value during the rebuilding process.

The most valuable instrument one can possess in these times is a Spiritual relationship with your Maker.

Ill club you in the head w a gold brick and take your seeds and smokes.

Garcia Bronco
06-25-2013, 09:36 AM
They can't raise interest rates or the bond market will collapse.

They are stuck. They can't go forward and can't stand still.

They can't continue the QE or they crash the dollar. But they can't stop QE or the too big to fail banks go under.

I wouldn't want to be in Bernanke's shoes, right now.

MHG

No and no and no and no.

You don't get it. The math and manipulation is beyond you. That's why they're making plans to taper it off. The Bond market will no crash. Sure current investors will feel the pinch, but with raised rates, getting into the bond market will be good. Banks have been storing up cash and assets as well. The US is actually in good shape except for our debt, which is relative because just about everybody else is in debt too.

The outlook is good.

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 09:38 AM
No and no and no and no.

You don't get it. The math and manipulation is beyond you. That's why they're making plans to taper it off. The Bond market will no crash. Sure current investors will feel the pinch, but with raised rates, getting into the bond market will be good. Banks have been storing up cash and assets as well. The US is actually in good shape except for our debt, which is relative because just about everybody else is in debt too.

The outlook is good.

Bingo! Interest rates could double overnight and still be absurdly low.

Getting unemployment down is still the #1 priority....or it should be.

Rohirrim
06-25-2013, 09:40 AM
Bingo! Interest rates could double overnight and still be absurdly low.

Getting unemployment down is still the #1 priority....or it should be.

That's what Krugman has been telling these idiots in Washington for two years. They still don't get it.

Garcia Bronco
06-25-2013, 09:58 AM
Unemployment is roughly only 2 percent above average. I mean I get the need, but 2 points on all those workers isn't as big a deal. Of course that's spreadsheet thinking. And before anyone says it's really at blah..blah..blah...the measuring stick is the measuring stick.

Garcia Bronco
06-25-2013, 10:02 AM
Bingo! Interest rates could double overnight and still be absurdly low.



I hope they do. I mean right now there are whole product lines in demand deposit banks that are dead or don't exist.

Anyone bought a CD lately? WhyTF would you? Been keeping money in the savings account? You're better off spending it.

baja
06-25-2013, 10:07 AM
Ill club you in the head w a gold brick and take your seeds and smokes.

Ever see a film called "The Road"?

mhgaffney
06-25-2013, 02:24 PM
No and no and no and no.

You don't get it. The math and manipulation is beyond you. That's why they're making plans to taper it off. The Bond market will no crash. Sure current investors will feel the pinch, but with raised rates, getting into the bond market will be good. Banks have been storing up cash and assets as well. The US is actually in good shape except for our debt, which is relative because just about everybody else is in debt too.

The outlook is good.

You overlook the fact that the too big to fails are way over-leveraged. Their reserves are tiny compared with their exposure to credit default swaps and other toxic debt. On an order of 30 to 1 or even worse.

This is not good. This is why the QE 3 was put in place in the first place -- and why if the Fed backs off the too bigs will be in big trouble.

MHG

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 03:21 PM
You overlook the fact that the too big to fails are way over-leveraged. Their reserves are tiny compared with their exposure to credit default swaps and other toxic debt. On an order of 30 to 1 or even worse.

This is not good. This is why the QE 3 was put in place in the first place -- and why if the Fed backs off the too bigs will be in big trouble.

MHG

How about a source?

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 03:22 PM
That's what Krugman has been telling these idiots in Washington for two years. They still don't get it.

Partisan politics are much more important. They just don't have the time to address the issues that matter.

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 03:23 PM
Unemployment is roughly only 2 percent above average. I mean I get the need, but 2 points on all those workers isn't as big a deal. Of course that's spreadsheet thinking. And before anyone says it's really at blah..blah..blah...the measuring stick is the measuring stick.

A few million more consumers and tax payers wouldn't hurt.

mhgaffney
06-25-2013, 04:01 PM
How about a source?

There are many sources on this. Do a search. Here is one:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2013/04/02/an-overleveraged-fed-punishes-better-capitalized-banks/

It is not only US banks. The Euro banks are just as bad. Deutsche Bank's reserves may be leveraged 60 X !

http://alternativeeconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/deutsche-bank-60-times-over-leveraged-and-a-72-trillion-derivative-exposure/

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 05:58 PM
There are many sources on this. Do a search. Here is one:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2013/04/02/an-overleveraged-fed-punishes-better-capitalized-banks/

It is not only US banks. The Euro banks are just as bad. Deutsche Bank's reserves may be leveraged 60 X !

http://alternativeeconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/deutsche-bank-60-times-over-leveraged-and-a-72-trillion-derivative-exposure/

I've searched in the past and not found anything like the "30-1 or worse ratio" you claimed.

From your Forbes link.

the top eighteen banks are leveraged by just 12:1 (average), while the three censured banks are leveraged by only 10:1

Very manageable, and very different from the 'sky is falling' picture you're trying to paint.

houghtam
06-25-2013, 06:08 PM
I've searched in the past and not found anything like the "30-1 or worse ratio" you claimed.

From your Forbes link.



Very manageable, and very different from the 'sky is falling' picture you're trying to paint.

Is it 30:1 in lizard years?

DenverBrit
06-25-2013, 06:25 PM
Is it 30:1 in lizard years?

Most likely. I'm sure it was a typo and Gaff didn't mean to exaggerate. :P

chadta
06-26-2013, 03:39 AM
I've searched in the past and not found anything like the "30-1 or worse ratio" you claimed.

From your Forbes link.



Very manageable, and very different from the 'sky is falling' picture you're trying to paint.


so 12 - 1 is good ?

Am I the only one who thinks banks should only be able to lend what they have ? If any other kind of company kept records like banks it would be fraud, but not in the banking world, its business as usual.

Fedaykin
06-26-2013, 04:23 AM
so 12 - 1 is good ?

Am I the only one who thinks banks should only be able to lend what they have ? If any other kind of company kept records like banks it would be fraud, but not in the banking world, its business as usual.

Fractional Reserve Banking is what enables banks to loan money based on deposits. Without fractional reserve banking, a bank would have to keep 100% of deposits as cash on hand -- meaning it couldn't lend that money out.

A leveraging ratio describes how much cash on hand the bank has to cover deposits (and other liabilities). For example, if a bank has 10 customers all with $10 deposited, a 10:1 leveraging ratio would mean that the bank was loaning out $90 and keeping $10 in cash (i.e. $100 in liabilities : $10 in assets). If the ratio was 1:1 (no fractional reserve), the bank would have to keep all $100 in cash and be unable to actually loan any money out.

It's a bit more complicated, because leveraging ratios are inclusive of all bank liabilities (customer deposits, outstanding loans, etc.). But that's the gist.

Previously the legal limit of FRB was 4:1. Under that limit, the solvency of the bank was only threatened if more than 25% of its total liabilities were called in (withdrawals, defaults on loans, etc.)

A little over a decade ago, that limit was completely abolished, which is pretty much the root cause of the 2008 financial crisis where many institutions were leveraged far, far beyond that original 4:1 limit (most at 50:1 or more, some even as high as 500:1).

At 50:1, only 2% of liabilities being called in would cause the bank to be insolvent. At 500:1, only 0.2% would cause insolvency.

Of course, any effort to get back to a sane compromise such as 4:1 limits is consistently met with ZOMG BIG GOVERNMENT!

DenverBrit
06-26-2013, 06:06 AM
so 12 - 1 is good ?

Am I the only one who thinks banks should only be able to lend what they have ? If any other kind of company kept records like banks it would be fraud, but not in the banking world, its business as usual.

12-1 is manageable.

Without leverage, would anyone be able to get a mortgage or finance a car?

Fedaykin
06-26-2013, 06:32 AM
On the subject of the OP, Glad I dumped all my precious metal ETFs in March. Only wish I had done so in Oct. GLD alone is down 35% since OCT12, with silver down almost 50%

Rohirrim
06-26-2013, 06:41 AM
Is there any difference between gold and pork bellies, as far as the commodities market is concerned?

baja
06-26-2013, 06:44 AM
One frys up better then the other.

Fedaykin
06-26-2013, 08:44 AM
Gold drops to near $1200, still falling fast. Down 40% in the last 6 months. Gold speculators and retailers rake in the dough. Regular Joes conned into buying hyper inflated commodity get screwed, as always.

houghtam
06-26-2013, 08:56 AM
Gold drops to near $1200, still falling fast. Down 40% in the last 6 months. Gold speculators and retailers rake in the dough. Regular Joes conned into buying hyper inflated commodity get screwed, as always.

This is why I think the people who invest in gold are generally deficient where it counts.

It's not that gold is a bad investment, per se. It's that most of the people who invest in gold are doing so because of some irrational fear and as insurance during a time of a barter economy, presumably at some undetermined time in the future.

Forget about whether or not gold will have any actual worth in a true barter economy (I for one think it will be worthless, considering it has no real value other than it looks shiny).

In order to invest in gold as insurance against a collapsing economy, you have to be one of those people who believes it's inevitable. That means that until the economy actually collapses, you're going to keep buying, and you're never going to sell. Like you said, it's the speculators who are making the money, and they're doing it on the backs of people like baja, gaff and several others in this thread.

Rohirrim
06-26-2013, 09:06 AM
This is why I think the people who invest in gold are generally deficient where it counts.

It's not that gold is a bad investment, per se. It's that most of the people who invest in gold are doing so because of some irrational fear and as insurance during a time of a barter economy, presumably at some undetermined time in the future.

Forget about whether or not gold will have any actual worth in a true barter economy (I for one think it will be worthless, considering it has no real value other than it looks shiny).

In order to invest in gold as insurance against a collapsing economy, you have to be one of those people who believes it's inevitable. That means that until the economy actually collapses, you're going to keep buying, and you're never going to sell. Like you said, it's the speculators who are making the money, and they're doing it on the backs of people like baja, gaff and several others in this thread.

In a survivalist economy the guy with the aquaculture tanks in his back yard is better off than the guy with the Krugerrands in his safe.

Arkie
06-26-2013, 04:41 PM
Gold drops to near $1200, still falling fast. Down 40% in the last 6 months. Gold speculators and retailers rake in the dough. Regular Joes conned into buying hyper inflated commodity get screwed, as always.

Regular Joes selling their gold at selling cost are getting screwed. The average cost to mine gold over the last few years is about $1000 per oz. This includes some deeper mines recently that cost over $1500/oz. Those same gold speculators will take the regular Joe's lunch over the next few months.

mhgaffney
06-26-2013, 05:13 PM
In a survivalist economy the guy with the aquaculture tanks in his back yard is better off than the guy with the Krugerrands in his safe.

Why not both?

houghtam
06-26-2013, 05:24 PM
Why not both?

Because with the money you saved on not buying a shiny piece of metal, you could have spent on more food, weapons, ammo and land.

That is, if you're concerned about that sort of thing.

DenverBrit
06-26-2013, 06:35 PM
Why not both?


I make you very good price.


http://organicconnectmag.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pyrite.jpg

peacepipe
07-06-2013, 10:35 AM
It seems most people don't get it,you buy low sell high. That's why the fat cats are usually the only ones to benefit from buying gold. They can afford to buy it cheap & sit on it until the economy hits a pot hole when they then can dbl their money.

Fedaykin
07-06-2013, 10:43 AM
Regular Joes selling their gold at selling cost are getting screwed. The average cost to mine gold over the last few years is about $1000 per oz. This includes some deeper mines recently that cost over $1500/oz. Those same gold speculators will take the regular Joe's lunch over the next few months.

Even presuming you aren't FOS, the only reason mining gold @ $1500/oz is worthwhile is if the price is inflated to > $1500/oz. It does not mean that $1000-1500/oz is the cost of mining gold in general.

It's exactly parallel to the tar sands and oil. All the morons who claim extracting the tar sands will reduce the price of oil don't understand the basic economics of the situation. The only reason extracting oil out of tar sands is starting to make economic sense is because of the high cost of oil. If the cost of oil drops again, it won't be economically viable to extract oil from tar sands.

Same with gold or any other mineral that requires significant effort to extract. The price of the commodity determines what operations are economically viable, not the other way around.

DenverBrit
07-06-2013, 11:47 AM
It seems most people don't get it,you buy low sell high. That's why the fat cats are usually the only ones to benefit from buying gold. They can afford to buy it cheap & sit on it until the economy hits a pot hole when they then can dbl their money.

Gold is an 'emotional' investment, making it a lousy investment choice for most people. When it starts paying a dividend, I'll buy some. ;D


Warren Buffet on gold.

“Why do you think gold bugs get so irate? Because they really do come out. If you go on CNBC and say that bonds are kind of a poor investment, people don’t get mad at you. You don’t hear from the Treasury. You can knock almost any investment and nothing happens. But when you talk about gold it’s different. Of course that says something about their motivation for ownership. They want people to agree with them. They want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold. Caves might be a better investment than gold. At least they’re not producing more caves all the time. So they want people to be as afraid as they are. Incidentally, they’re right to be afraid of paper money. Their basic premise that paper money around the world is going to be worth less and less over time is absolutely correct. They have the correct basic premise. They should run from paper money. But where they run to is the mistake.”

Arkie
07-07-2013, 10:33 AM
Even presuming you aren't FOS, the only reason mining gold @ $1500/oz is worthwhile is if the price is inflated to > $1500/oz. It does not mean that $1000-1500/oz is the cost of mining gold in general.

It's exactly parallel to the tar sands and oil. All the morons who claim extracting the tar sands will reduce the price of oil don't understand the basic economics of the situation. The only reason extracting oil out of tar sands is starting to make economic sense is because of the high cost of oil. If the cost of oil drops again, it won't be economically viable to extract oil from tar sands.

Same with gold or any other mineral that requires significant effort to extract. The price of the commodity determines what operations are economically viable, not the other way around.

Goldcorp costs are about average, and they're operating on razor thin margins in 2013.

Goldcorp Inc. (TSX: G)(NYSE: GG), a leading global gold producer, is one of the companies that report all-in sustaining costs per ounce. Citing the company’s 2013 first-quarter results, all-in sustaining cash costs totaled $1,135 per ounce.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/06/14/feature-is-it-sustainable-to-mine-gold-in-this-current-price-environment/



The most expensive place to mine gold is in South Africa. They have mines that cost over $1500/oz. Obviously, they slowed down or stopped production. I googled an article written today that estimates that 60% of the South African industry is in loss-making territory at these prices.

Analysis: Price-cost pinch dulls last luster of South Africa's gold (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-safrica-gold-decline-analysis-20130707,0,6652505.story)


The cheapest place to mine is in Nevada at $500/oz. But gold would be worth a lot more than cost if Nevada had the only mines in operation.

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 12:27 PM
Goldcorp costs are about average, and they're operating on razor thin margins in 2013.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/06/14/feature-is-it-sustainable-to-mine-gold-in-this-current-price-environment/



The most expensive place to mine gold is in South Africa. They have mines that cost over $1500/oz. Obviously, they slowed down or stopped production. I googled an article written today that estimates that 60% of the South African industry is in loss-making territory at these prices.

Analysis: Price-cost pinch dulls last luster of South Africa's gold (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-safrica-gold-decline-analysis-20130707,0,6652505.story)


The cheapest place to mine is in Nevada at $500/oz. But gold would be worth a lot more than cost if Nevada had the only mines in operation.

The average cost to mine gold you cite is quite silly. It includes the high cost mines in operation only because it's profitable to operate at high prices.

Like I said (and you have rebutted with nothing). The cost of gold is irrespective of it's cost to mine. The market price of gold is what determines which mining operations are viable, and which are not.

mhgaffney
07-07-2013, 02:51 PM
Brit evidently thinks the collapsed gold price is the result of market forces at work.

How then to explain why the demand for gold has never been higher. High demand should have driven up the price. Hmm...

This tells us the collapse has been engineered.

A friend thinks that the banksters are attempting to take control of various gold mines -- by driving them into chapter 11 -- or forcing them to close down -- or by making their stock so low they simply buy it up cheap.

In short -- it's a scam -- a rigged game.

This kind of manipulation of the market is illegal. Are we a nation of law? Evidently not -- when banksters can get away with this.

MHG

DenverBrit
07-07-2013, 03:04 PM
Brit evidently thinks the collapsed gold price is the result of market forces at work.

How then to explain why the demand for gold has never been higher. High demand should have driven up the price. Hmm...

This tells us the collapse has been engineered.

A friend thinks that the banksters are attempting to take control of various gold mines -- by driving them into chapter 11 -- or forcing them to close down -- or by making their stock so low they simply buy it up cheap.

In short -- it's a scam -- a rigged game.

This kind of manipulation of the market is illegal. Are we a nation of law? Evidently not -- when banksters can get away with this.

MHG

Gaffney, you have no idea what you're talking about. However, Buffet was talking about people like you.

He nailed it.

They want everybody to get so scared they run to a cave with gold. Caves might be a better investment than gold. At least they’re not producing more caves all the time. So they want people to be as afraid as they are.

W*GS
07-07-2013, 04:10 PM
How then to explain why the demand for gold has never been higher.

"Never"?

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/511d435eecad04ac3c000002-960/moneygame-cotd-021413.jpg

http://www.gold.org/assets/images/content/investment/Demand_and_supply.gif

W*GS
07-07-2013, 04:13 PM
Gaffney, you have no idea what you're talking about.

A very very common occurrence with der gaffe.

baja
07-07-2013, 04:18 PM
"Never"?

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/511d435eecad04ac3c000002-960/moneygame-cotd-021413.jpg


Thank you for this Wags.


I have been looking for information on the Fed's gold purchases.


Note the only time the Fed bought gold was the last three years, massively increasing their purchases in the last two years.Not only that the chart shows the fed selling gold all the previous years on the chart.

The chart also shows gold purchases for investment is strong and steady.


It looks like the fed is trying to drive down the gold price.

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 04:33 PM
Thank you for this Wags.


I have been looking for information on the Fed's gold purchases.


Note the only time the Fed bought gold was the last three years, massively increasing their purchases in the last two years.Not only that the chart shows the fed selling gold all the previous years on the chart.

The chart also shows gold purchases for investment is strong and steady.


It looks like the fed is trying to drive down the gold price.


You're going to want to review your basic economics there.

DenverBrit
07-07-2013, 04:34 PM
Thank you for this Wags.


I have been looking for information on the Fed's gold purchases.


Note the only time the Fed bought gold was the last three years, massively increasing their purchases in the last two years.Not only that the chart shows the fed selling gold all the previous years on the chart.

The chart also shows gold purchases for investment is strong and steady.


It looks like the fed is trying to drive down the gold price.

LOL

Really?? Investors have been dumping gold and moving billions into equities.

Is the news not getting through to Baja?

http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/screen-shot-2013-04-15-at-10-04-28-am.png?w=1024&h=625

DenverBrit
07-07-2013, 04:37 PM
Gold and conspiracy junkies go hand in hand. The plunge in gold prices is no mystery.

It's not the FEDS, it's the the idiot gold bugs, the doom and gloom crowd dumping gold as fast as they can, now that 'investors' are taking their profits.

Why is gold plunging? The most important factor is that global inflation is falling, reducing gold’s value as a hedge against rising prices. Gold bugs who were betting on an outburst of inflation are scrambling to reverse their bets and exit their gold positions at any price.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-15/the-price-of-gold-is-crashing-dot-heres-why

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 04:39 PM
LOL

Really?? Investors have been dumping gold and moving billions into equities.

Is the news not getting through to Baja?

http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/screen-shot-2013-04-15-at-10-04-28-am.png?w=1024&h=625

Gold investment demand is down 50% y2y. ETF investors are dumping it like it's toxic. They rode the bubble, and cashed out, leaving all the chumps that bought hard and expensive to move physical gold in the lurch.

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 04:49 PM
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1373240904419&chddm=97359&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSEARCA:GLD&ntsp=0&ei=HP7ZUYjuEoOiqwGsrwE

DenverBrit
07-07-2013, 08:20 PM
Thank you for this Wags.


I have been looking for information on the Fed's gold purchases.


Note the only time the Fed bought gold was the last three years, massively increasing their purchases in the last two years.Not only that the chart shows the fed selling gold all the previous years on the chart.

The chart also shows gold purchases for investment is strong and steady.


It looks like the fed is trying to drive down the gold price.

Baja, where do you get this?? If the Fed were buying, gold would be increasing in value, not dropping.
The 'Central banks' in the chart are mostly eastern European, Turkey and Russian CBs replenishing their gold reserves. Typically, they are sellers, not buyers.

By the look of their timing, they screwed up. They were buying when gold was $1600+ an ounce.

baja
07-07-2013, 09:45 PM
Baja, where do you get this?? If the Fed were buying, gold would be increasing in value, not dropping.
The 'Central banks' in the chart are mostly eastern European, Turkey and Russian CBs replenishing their gold reserves. Typically, they are sellers, not buyers.

By the look of their timing, they screwed up. They were buying when gold was $1600+ an ounce.

If they were shorting gold would it not show as a purchase?

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 10:01 PM
If they were shorting gold would it not show as a purchase?


LMAO No. Shorting is when you borrow something that has already been purchased and SELL it with the later promise to buy the same number of shares later to repay the lender share for share.

And, when shorting, it's the brokerage/whatever doing the lending that shows up as the buyer/seller. They don't actually give you X shares to sell. They sell X shares they own and provide you with the proceeds. When you go to cover the short, you give them the cash necessary to repurchase X shares (assuming they want to actually repurchase shares, which is not required).

Bacchus
07-07-2013, 10:36 PM
It's over bought and over priced and the bubble will burst.

Carry on. :)

He/she/it has always been a bad investment

Bacchus
07-07-2013, 10:39 PM
Gold and conspiracy junkies go hand in hand. The plunge in gold prices is no mystery.

It's not the FEDS, it's the the idiot gold bugs, the doom and gloom crowd dumping gold as fast as they can, now that 'investors' are taking their profits.



http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-15/the-price-of-gold-is-crashing-dot-heres-why

Yep, mostly gun-toting, conspiracy loving, Obama haters getting bleached on this one. Run for the hills buy lots of gold.

Fedaykin
07-07-2013, 10:58 PM
The shorting conspiracy theory doesn't even begin to make sense.

Gold peaked in mid to late 2011, hovered for around a year, and then started dropping in late 2012. The Fine Chart (TFC) shows the central banks selling off hundreds of tons/year of gold up to about 2008, then no real activity until they started buying it up again in 2011.

In order to short gold, the Fed would have to be borrowing it from someone willing to bet against the Fed (all shorting is a bet/counter bet between the lender and the borrower) -- most likely those central banks that the Fed holds all the gold for. In any event, to short it enough to affect the markets, they would have to sell a LOT of it, and they'd have to be selling it sometime before/during the actual drop in price. As TFC shows, we do see a lot of gold being sold in 2002-2008, but also a steady, unrelenting rise in cost of the price of gold. In other words, even central banks selling hundreds of tons/year didn't cause a drop in the price.


In order for the shorting conspiracy theory to make even a lick of sense, you'd expect there to be massive central bank sell offs (as they sell off the gold and provid ethe proceeds to the Fed) starting sometime in early to mid 2011. How massive? Something more than 100s of tons/year which didn't cause a price drop before.

What we actually see is those large central banks making large PURCHASES of gold starting in early to mid 2011. An action that could only help to prop up the price of gold (see: economics 101)

DenverBrit
07-08-2013, 06:41 AM
If they were shorting gold would it not show as a purchase?

If the FED were shorting gold, it would be front page news. Only the conspiracy/gold bug sites report that scenario as a way to explain how wrong they are.....and have been for years.

Gold prices dropping are a sign of investor confidence and profit taking. It's business as usual.

Arkie
07-08-2013, 09:49 AM
Great advice! Sell your gold for $1000 and buy it back for $1200. Just kidding. I know there were many opportunities to make money short term buying and selling, but gold is about long term investing. It hasn't even been 4 years yet, the long term move was to buy in 2009 even after this big correction. I feel bad for anybody who has to sell today at these cheap prices, but it's still better than it was during the "bubble territory" of 2009. Hilarious!


It's over bought and over priced and the bubble will burst.

Carry on. :)
9-30-2009

**** guys...now it's time to buy...well wait 30 days or so but I think Silver is the best way to go because you can get more of it for a hedge later on.
6-24-2013

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 11:42 AM
The value of my house went down a lot in 2008-2010. Must be those damn builders shorting houses! ****ing NWO!!!!

houghtam
07-08-2013, 12:34 PM
The value of my house went down a lot in 2008-2010. Must be those damn builders shorting houses! ****ing NWO!!!!

Baja or Gaff with a link to a PCR Information Clearinghouse article on how the lizard people were behind the housing bubble in 5...4...3...2...

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 01:08 PM
Baja or Gaff with a link to a PCR Information Clearinghouse article on how the lizard people were behind the housing bubble in 5...4...3...2...

More likely from Mike "Germ Theory is Wrong, Bill Gates is working on a sinister eugenics experiment, Sandy Hook was faked, etc." Adams from Natural News.

Rohirrim
07-08-2013, 01:11 PM
I'm no Warren Buffett, but I think the best long term hedge against inflation would be land.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 01:15 PM
I'm no Warren Buffett, but I think the best long term hedge against inflation would be land.

Yep, the only real wealth is real estate (but of course, not all real estate is valuable). If you want a hedge against inflation that's your best bet.

Gold is just a convenient currency with no real inherent practical value except in a high tech economy where it has some use as a high quality conductor.

houghtam
07-08-2013, 01:20 PM
I'm no Warren Buffett, but I think the best long term hedge against inflation would be land.

Absolutely, assuming (since you're a reasonable person) you're talking about a realistic scenario of economic hardship.

The "sky is falling" gold buying dupes, on the other hand, have a vision (fantasy?) of a barren wasteland where there is no government, the world is run on a local scale by roving bands of armed warlords, and somehow gold can still be used as a barter currency. :rofl:

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 01:22 PM
Great advice! Sell your gold for $1000 and buy it back for $1200. Just kidding. I know there were many opportunities to make money short term buying and selling, but gold is about long term investing.

Shorting is an extremely risky bet. A long position (the standard bet that a stock will go up) only puts your original capital at risk. If you buy $10,000 worth of Apple, you can only lose up to $10,000.

However, a short position has, effectively, no limit to your losses. If you short $10,000 of a stock, and that stock triples in value, you're suddenly $20,000 in debt ($30,000 if you're trading on a margin without putting up the original $10,000 in collateral) instead of just losing the $10,000. There's no limit to your potential financial losses.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 01:26 PM
Great advice! Sell your gold for $1000 and buy it back for $1200.

Actually though, it's borrowing $1000 of gold from someone, selling it, and then buying the same amount back for $1200 and repaying the loan of gold. You lose $200, the person you borrowed from gains $200.

Rohirrim
07-08-2013, 01:27 PM
Absolutely, assuming (since you're a reasonable person) you're talking about a realistic scenario of economic hardship.

The "sky is falling" gold buying dupes, on the other hand, have a vision (fantasy?) of a barren wasteland where there is no government, the world is run on a local scale by roving bands of armed warlords, and somehow gold can still be used as a barter currency. :rofl:

In that scenario, the best barter item would be food or fuel. And since land is needed to grow food... ;D

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 01:35 PM
In that scenario, the best barter item would be food or fuel. And since land is needed to grow food... ;D


...and to extract and/or grow fuel.

Garcia Bronco
07-08-2013, 01:58 PM
Great advice! Sell your gold for $1000 and buy it back for $1200. Just kidding. I know there were many opportunities to make money short term buying and selling, but gold is about long term investing. It hasn't even been 4 years yet, the long term move was to buy in 2009 even after this big correction. I feel bad for anybody who has to sell today at these cheap prices, but it's still better than it was during the "bubble territory" of 2009. Hilarious!



9-30-2009


6-24-2013


You forgot the part about me being right. :)

And about now is the time to buy. Let's be clear. I don;t think buying and taking possession of metals is a bad idea.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 02:26 PM
You forgot the part about me being right. :)

And about now is the time to buy. Let's be clear. I don;t think buying and taking possession of metals is a bad idea.

Most reputable dealers charge ~5% over spot in amounts a typical person can afford to buy (a few ounces) Disreputable dealers charge more. Unless you do a wire transfer, they'll charge you another 3-4% to buy with a credit card. Oh, then another 2-3% in shipping fees and insurance. And, if you try to sell it back, you'll incur all those fees again (shipping, handling, payment fees, etc. ) and you won't be getting 5% over spot when you sell (more like 1-2% if you're lucky).

In other words, you're probably losing 15-25%+ in transaction and other fees. That's a huge hit. You're a lot better off buying a zero transaction overhead ETF and using the proceeds to acquire real wealth (real estate) instead of shiny useless metal.

mhgaffney
07-08-2013, 02:29 PM
Conspiracy nonsense?

A number of major gold traders and hedge fund managers agree with Baja and I -- and PCR.

You can check them out at KingWorldNews.com

Some of these guys are billionaires.

The wacko BS at the OM never ends. If you look at Brit's gold chart -- it conforms perfectly with what these gold traders and PCR have been saying. The manipulation started back in July 2011 - at a time when the gold price was moving steeply higher -- it had reached 1900/ounce.

The Fed stopped the rise via market manipulation. The latest even more intense round of manipulation started this past April -- with the Fed not simply preventing a further rise -- but actually forcing the price way down. This continues as we speak.

MHG

houghtam
07-08-2013, 02:40 PM
Conspiracy nonsense?

A number of major gold traders and hedge fund managers agree with Baja and I -- and PCR.

You can check them out at KingWorldNews.com

Some of these guys are billionaires.

The wacko BS at the OM never ends. If you look at Brit's gold chart -- it conforms perfectly with what these gold traders and PCR have been saying. The manipulation started back in July 2011 - at a time when the gold price was moving steeply higher -- it had reached 1900/ounce.

The Fed stopped the rise via market manipulation. The latest even more intense round of manipulation started this past April -- with the Fed not simply preventing a further rise -- but actually forcing the price way down. This continues as we speak.

MHG

LOL

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 02:50 PM
Conspiracy nonsense?

A number of major gold traders and hedge fund managers agree with Baja and I -- and PCR.

You can check them out at KingWorldNews.com

Some of these guys are billionaires.

The wacko BS at the OM never ends. If you look at Brit's gold chart -- it conforms perfectly with what these gold traders and PCR have been saying. The manipulation started back in July 2011 - at a time when the gold price was moving steeply higher -- it had reached 1900/ounce.

The Fed stopped the rise via market manipulation. The latest even more intense round of manipulation started this past April -- with the Fed not simply preventing a further rise -- but actually forcing the price way down. This continues as we speak.

MHG

What manipulation? How does one "manipulate the markets" to drive the price of a commodity down? Shorting it? The evidence shows they aren't shorting it.

Mind control rays perhaps?

DenverBrit
07-08-2013, 03:32 PM
Conspiracy nonsense?

A number of major gold traders and hedge fund managers agree with Baja and I -- and PCR.

You can check them out at KingWorldNews.com

Some of these guys are billionaires.

The wacko BS at the OM never ends. If you look at Brit's gold chart -- it conforms perfectly with what these gold traders and PCR have been saying. The manipulation started back in July 2011 - at a time when the gold price was moving steeply higher -- it had reached 1900/ounce.

The Fed stopped the rise via market manipulation. The latest even more intense round of manipulation started this past April -- with the Fed not simply preventing a further rise -- but actually forcing the price way down. This continues as we speak.

MHG

Hilarious!

http://seoblackhat.com/upimage/tinfoilhat.jpg

baja
07-08-2013, 03:41 PM
I'm no Warren Buffett, but I think the best long term hedge against inflation would be land.

Best long term investment = Your health

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 03:47 PM
Google tells me the market manipulation is "naked shorts" -- the Fed selling gold it doesn't have as paper IOUS. Hundreds of tons of it!

So how come there is no evidence that the Fed is selling gold -- naked shorts or otherswise -- at all? In fact, as I previously pointed out, TFC shows that central banks are BUYING hundreds of tons of gold since 2011.

Apparently my tinfoil hat needs another fold or something...

Rohirrim
07-08-2013, 03:48 PM
Best long term investment = Your health

I can't hand that off to my kids when I'm gone. ;D

baja
07-08-2013, 03:49 PM
I can't hand that off to my kids when I'm gone. ;D

You can do better - more quality years with them.

Arkie
07-08-2013, 04:21 PM
Most reputable dealers charge ~5% over spot in amounts a typical person can afford to buy (a few ounces) Disreputable dealers charge more. Unless you do a wire transfer, they'll charge you another 3-4% to buy with a credit card. Oh, then another 2-3% in shipping fees and insurance. And, if you try to sell it back, you'll incur all those fees again (shipping, handling, payment fees, etc. ) and you won't be getting 5% over spot when you sell (more like 1-2% if you're lucky).

In other words, you're probably losing 15-25%+ in transaction and other fees. That's a huge hit. You're a lot better off buying a zero transaction overhead ETF and using the proceeds to acquire real wealth (real estate) instead of shiny useless metal.

Stacking physical gold is good for long term plans like retirement. You only pay a 5% premium for gold eagles from a brick and mortar store, and it's even less for Krugerrands. It helps to only buy on the dips. Set your money aside and wait for the inevitable dips. A 5% dip will make up for the premium.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 05:03 PM
Stacking physical gold is good for long term plans like retirement. You only pay a 5% premium for gold eagles from a brick and mortar store, and it's even lower for Krugerrands. It helps to only buy on the dips. Set your money aside and wait for the inevitable dips. A 5% dip will make up for the premium.

A brick and mortar store only saves you shipping/handling. You still pay the spot premium + other transaction fees.

And you still end up with a pile of useless shiny metal that's hard to transport, hard to store and hard to sell. And there is absolutely no guarantees associated with it's price.

You're a lot better off investing in something with low transaction fees (ETFs or other equities) and/or with real tangible value (real estate).

What would the picture be like if you had invested in gold or just the DJIA 30 years ago?

Gold
83: ~$400
current: 1,240
years: 30

Annualized Return: = (1240/342) ^ (1/30) - 1 = 0.04 = 4% average annual return

DJIA:
83: ~1200
current: 15200
years: 30

Annualized Return: = (15200/1200) ^ (1/30) - 1 = 0.08 = 8% average (ignoring dividends!) annual return


And that's with a near depression happening in that 30 year period and a gold speculation bubble. (the 100 year average stock market return is around 10%) And, it's before taxes and fees. The taxes and fees associated with investing in gold are a lot higher than the taxes and fees associated with investing in the stock market.

And, if the sh*t really does hit the fan, like it was said, you're much better off stocking up on practical things (real estate, ammo, knowledge, etc.) than shiny chunks of metal.

DenverBrit
07-08-2013, 05:25 PM
A brick and mortar store only saves you shipping/handling. You still pay the spot premium + other transaction fees.

And you still end up with a pile of useless shiny metal that's hard to transport, hard to store and hard to sell. And there is absolutely no guarantees associated with it's price.

You're a lot better off investing in something with low transaction fees (ETFs or other equities) and/or with real tangible value (real estate).

What would the picture be like if you had invested in gold or just the DJIA 30 years ago?

Gold
83: ~$400
current: 1,240
years: 30

Annualized Return: = (1240/342) ^ (1/30) - 1 = 0.04 = 4% average annual return

DJIA:
83: ~1200
current: 15200
years: 30

Annualized Return: = (15200/1200) ^ (1/30) - 1 = 0.08 = 8% average (ignoring dividends!) annual return


And that's with a near depression happening in that 30 year period and a gold speculation bubble. (the 100 year average stock market return is around 10%) And, it's before taxes and fees. The taxes and fees associated with investing in gold are a lot higher than the taxes and fees associated with investing in the stock market.

And, if the sh*t really does hit the fan, like it was said, you're much better off stocking up on practical things (real estate, ammo, knowledge, etc.) than shiny chunks of metal.

That's a good illustration as to why gold is only a short term buy-and sell play. It's a lousy long term investment that only the tin foil brigade and gold bugs can love.

It is the ultimate 'sucker bet' of investing.

Too reinforce your point.

After reaching a record high of $850 per ounce in January 1980, gold’s price fell almost 44% in two months. It didn’t reach $850 again until January 2008, meaning it was flat while inflation rose 175%, Mr. Condon calculates. Indeed, today’s gold price is far below its 1980 apex when inflation is factored in: That $850 is worth $2,206 in today’s dollars.

Bacchus
07-08-2013, 05:34 PM
I'm no Warren Buffett, but I think the best long term hedge against inflation would be land.

Well, the housing crash of 2008 screwed thousands of real estate people.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 05:35 PM
That's a good illustration as to why gold is only a short term buy-and sell play. It's a lousy long term investment that only the tin foil brigade and gold bugs can love.

It is the ultimate 'sucker bet' of investing.

Too reinforce your point.

Yep, another good point. Average inflation from 1983-present is:

(234/100)^(1/30)-1= 0.03 or 3%

So gold as an inflation hedge is OK, assuming the fees/taxes/etc. don't eat up that last 1%/year (quite possible).

However, simply dumping that money into an index fund gets you a return of triple or more the rate of inflation (after dividends, etc.)

In other words, if you want to actually make money, Gold is a bad bet. And, if you want to have it actually be a hedge against inflation, you better hope there is a speculation bubble or you are totally screwed.

Maybe that's why the speculators have wipping up all the gold bugs? Nah, they'd never use fearmongering to create a financial advantage for themselves!

Arkie
07-08-2013, 07:13 PM
Look at long term cycles and the dow/gold ratio. It shows how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the dow. Between 1980 and 1999, it was an equity bull market. The ratio grows bigger during this leg of the cycle like it did up until 1999. You could have used the same strategy. Buy stocks on the market dips. Wait until it inevitably drops 5% and buy more. Nobody knew that was the top at the time. Since 1999, it's been a better long term strategy to buy gold on the dips. Nobody knows if its the bottom. I don't think the ratio dropped low enough for a long term cyclical turnaround. Gold still hasn't reached it's all-time high set in 1980. I think the ratio will get closer to 1 than 40 long term. Then it will be time to apply this strategy to the stock market. It's not all black and white. It's best to diversify. These cycles can simply be used to determine how much to hedge your long term portfolio.

http://www.abload.de/img/dow_gold_ratio-kopie1fqtg.jpg

DenverBrit
07-08-2013, 07:33 PM
Look at long term cycles and the dow/gold ratio. It shows how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the dow. Between 1980 and 1999, it was an equity bull market. The ratio grows bigger during this leg of the cycle like it did up until 1999. You could have used the same strategy. Buy stocks on the market dips. Wait until it inevitably drops 5% and buy more. Nobody knew that was the top at the time. Since 1999, it's been a better long term strategy to buy gold on the dips. Nobody knows if its the bottom. I don't think the ratio dropped low enough for a long term cyclical turnaround. Gold still hasn't reached it's all-time high set in 1980. I think the ratio will get closer to 1 than 40 long term. Then it will be time to apply this strategy to the stock market. It's not all black and white. It's best to diversify. These cycles can simply be used to determine how much to hedge your long term portfolio.

http://www.abload.de/img/dow_gold_ratio-kopie1fqtg.jpg

Market timing, a long term strategy that's virtually impossible......without a time machine.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 08:19 PM
Look at long term cycles and the dow/gold ratio. It shows how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the dow. Between 1980 and 1999, it was an equity bull market. The ratio grows bigger during this leg of the cycle like it did up until 1999. You could have used the same strategy. Buy stocks on the market dips. Wait until it inevitably drops 5% and buy more. Nobody knew that was the top at the time. Since 1999, it's been a better long term strategy to buy gold on the dips. Nobody knows if its the bottom. I don't think the ratio dropped low enough for a long term cyclical turnaround. Gold still hasn't reached it's all-time high set in 1980. I think the ratio will get closer to 1 than 40 long term. Then it will be time to apply this strategy to the stock market. It's not all black and white. It's best to diversify. These cycles can simply be used to determine how much to hedge your long term portfolio.

http://www.abload.de/img/dow_gold_ratio-kopie1fqtg.jpg

You entirely miss the point. As a true long term investment, the Dow has performed over twice as well, on average, as gold over the last 30 years.

What you're describing above is NOT long term investment. If you want to toss your money at something for the long term (i.e. a retirement account), it's a LOT better idea to just buy a Dow index fund than to buy and store physical gold.

Full stop.

bowtown
07-08-2013, 08:26 PM
I like to chart the price of gold against Gaff's book sales. You can barely tell one line from the other.

Arkie
07-08-2013, 09:07 PM
You entirely miss the point. As a true long term investment, the Dow has performed over twice as well, on average, as gold over the last 30 years.

What you're describing above is NOT long term investment. If you want to toss your money at something for the long term (i.e. a retirement account), it's a LOT better idea to just buy a Dow index fund than to buy and store physical gold.

Full stop.

You're the one missing the point. The dow performs better, then gold performs better. Three cycles that go back to 1896. That's long term by my definition. You're just looking at one period when gold was coming off it's all time high as a starting point.

DenverBrit
07-08-2013, 09:52 PM
You're the one missing the point. The dow performs better, then gold performs better. Three cycles that go back to 1896. That's long term by my definition. You're just looking at one period when gold was coming off it's all time high as a starting point.

In my investment lifetime, gold has 'performed' twice, had you invested in gold 1980, you would have got your ass handed to you even if you held it up to the recent $1600 price. Gold lost value during that period in 'today's' dollars because inflation was in triple digits. Gold was held as a hedge against inflation. It failed miserably.

Gold is a sucker bet, the Dow has crushed gold as an investment during that period. And if you also held dividend stocks, you'd have made a fortune.

You really should Google Warren Buffet and gold investing.

Fedaykin
07-08-2013, 10:38 PM
You're the one missing the point. The dow performs better, then gold performs better. Three cycles that go back to 1896. That's long term by my definition. You're just looking at one period when gold was coming off it's all time high as a starting point.

~1 decade is not the type of investment we're talking about. You expressly said gold was a better investment for long term investing such as for retirement. I quote:


Stacking physical gold is good for long term plans like retirement.


The investment period for a retirement plan is ~30-40 years (getting longer all the time). Over that time period, the stock market has always handedly outperformed gold.

Now of course, it's silly to not actively manage your portfolio, so of course you want to follow the cycles. When the markets are good, you buy stocks and other higher risk/higher reward things that will maximize your return (unless you are near retirement of course). When the market does poorly, you shift everything into lower risk/lower reward things like gold/ETFs, bonds, etc. But, putting all or the majority of your retirement into gold is foolhardy. If you really want to not deal with your retirement, your absolute best option is to dump it into an index fund and call it a 4 decade.

Of course, the need to follow those cycles is another knock against physical gold. It gets real expensive really quick to be buying/selling physical gold to follow the market. It will put a huge dent in your gains real quick (see my previous post to GB).

And finally, long term gold cap gains is taxed at 28% (it's considered a collectable and as such taxed differently). Long term stocks are taxed @ 15%. 401k/IRA withdrawls are taxed as regular income (or not taxed during withdrawl at all if you do a roth style). Given current tax rates, for a typical retiree that could mean as much as 2-4 times the tax rate for gold.

No thanks, I'll stick to a nice diverse portfolio that only includes a bit of gold/precious metals ETFs.

Also, gold has been a great investment since 2002ish. I wouldn't trade my AAPL stock for it though.

APPL in 2002: @7/share
in 2013: $420/share
Average yearly return: 45%

Gold in 2002: ~$300
in 2013: $1240
Average yearly return: 13%

Garcia Bronco
07-09-2013, 09:50 AM
Gold at best is 3rd or 4th investment after you're maxing out 401ks and other investment vehicles. It's a hedge against inflation to have some money in case of the near worst. In the total collapse some people are calling for, dreaming for, afraid of...whatever you want to call it....in that senario all bets are off. You cannot prepare for it, you can try, but you can't.

Rohirrim
07-09-2013, 10:01 AM
Well, the housing crash of 2008 screwed thousands of real estate people.

If you look at real estate values over 30 years, you see the big bubble that started in about 2000, and then after the crash, values went down to where they would have been anyway on the same upward continuum. The idiots who got wiped out were the ones buying fix and flips at the top of the bubble. Long term, real estate always goes up. It's not the kind of investment that is going to make you a bunch of money, but it's a much more reliable hedge against inflation than any commodity you can name.

Garcia Bronco
07-09-2013, 10:24 AM
If you look at real estate values over 30 years, you see the big bubble that started in about 2000, and then after the crash, values went down to where they would have been anyway on the same upward continuum. The idiots who got wiped out were the ones buying fix and flips at the top of the bubble. Long term, real estate always goes up. It's not the kind of investment that is going to make you a bunch of money, but it's a much more reliable hedge against inflation than any commodity you can name.

Especially if said land has water.

mhgaffney
07-09-2013, 11:35 AM
What manipulation? How does one "manipulate the markets" to drive the price of a commodity down? Shorting it? The evidence shows they aren't shorting it.

Mind control rays perhaps?

The bond market is rigged -- why not gold?

They've done it before -- it's nothing new. In the 1980s the US intelligence community -- using naked shorts -- drove down the price of oil. The US also persuaded our ally Saudi Arabia to increase production.

The two in tandem drove the world price of a gallon of oil way down to under $10/barrel.

The US oil/gas industry went into a tailspin -- but the goal was nonetheless achieved. The USSR's oil revenues dried up -- bankrupting the Soviets. It's one big reason the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. There were other causes-- but this covert policy was a major reason.

Don't take my word for it. Check out James Norman's fine book THE OIL CARD.
http://www.amazon.com/Oil-Card-Economic-Warfare-Century/dp/097779539X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1373394890&sr=1-1&keywords=the+oil+card

Arkie
07-09-2013, 11:46 AM
~1 decade is not the type of investment we're talking about. You expressly said gold was a better investment for long term investing such as for retirement. I quote:



The investment period for a retirement plan is ~30-40 years (getting longer all the time). Over that time period, the stock market has always handedly outperformed gold.

Now of course, it's silly to not actively manage your portfolio, so of course you want to follow the cycles. When the markets are good, you buy stocks and other higher risk/higher reward things that will maximize your return (unless you are near retirement of course). When the market does poorly, you shift everything into lower risk/lower reward things like gold/ETFs, bonds, etc. But, putting all or the majority of your retirement into gold is foolhardy. If you really want to not deal with your retirement, your absolute best option is to dump it into an index fund and call it a 4 decade.

Of course, the need to follow those cycles is another knock against physical gold. It gets real expensive really quick to be buying/selling physical gold to follow the market. It will put a huge dent in your gains real quick (see my previous post to GB).

And finally, long term gold cap gains is taxed at 28% (it's considered a collectable and as such taxed differently). Long term stocks are taxed @ 15%. 401k/IRA withdrawls are taxed as regular income (or not taxed during withdrawl at all if you do a roth style). Given current tax rates, for a typical retiree that could mean as much as 2-4 times the tax rate for gold.

No thanks, I'll stick to a nice diverse portfolio that only includes a bit of gold/precious metals ETFs.

Also, gold has been a great investment since 2002ish. I wouldn't trade my AAPL stock for it though.

APPL in 2002: @7/share
in 2013: $420/share
Average yearly return: 45%

Gold in 2002: ~$300
in 2013: $1240
Average yearly return: 13%

I agree with you for the most part. You can always cherry pick certain stocks that perform better than gold during a gold bull market. For example, Apple increased 6 fold, while gold quadrupled and the dow doubled over the last 10 years. Also, when it comes to timing the markets, the bull markets for stocks last longer than gold. The average gold bear market lasts about 30 years. The average gold bull market only lasts about 10 years. This one's been dragging on longer due to the Fed manipulating the money supply. We still haven't gone full circle back to 1980 unless you think 2011 was the high for gold. I would disagree with that, but none of us know for sure.

DenverBrit
07-09-2013, 11:53 AM
The bond market is rigged -- why not gold?

They've done it before -- it's nothing new. In the 1980s the US intelligence community -- using naked shorts -- drove down the price of oil. The US also persuaded our ally Saudi Arabia to increase production.

The two in tandem drove the world price of a gallon of oil way down to under $10/barrel.

The US oil/gas industry went into a tailspin -- but the goal was nonetheless achieved. The USSR's oil revenues dried up -- bankrupting the Soviets. It's one big reason the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. There were other causes-- but this covert policy was a major reason.

Don't take my word for it. Check out James Norman's fine book THE OIL CARD.
http://www.amazon.com/Oil-Card-Economic-Warfare-Century/dp/097779539X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1373394890&sr=1-1&keywords=the+oil+card

Asylums are full of 'crazy people,' why not you?

Fedaykin
07-09-2013, 12:26 PM
Gold at best is 3rd or 4th investment after you're maxing out 401ks and other investment vehicles. It's a hedge against inflation to have some money in case of the near worst. In the total collapse some people are calling for, dreaming for, afraid of...whatever you want to call it....in that senario all bets are off. You cannot prepare for it, you can try, but you can't.

Agreed.

mhgaffney
07-10-2013, 11:21 AM
Looks like the banksters have ****** us again:

Game Over - “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone”


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/9_Game_Over_-_Its_All_A_Farce,_The_Fed_&_German_Gold_Is_Gone.html

mhgaffney
07-10-2013, 11:22 AM
also check out the interview on this with hedge trader William Kaye:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/7/10_William_Kaye.html

DenverBrit
07-11-2013, 11:55 AM
Looks like the banksters have ****** us again:

Game Over - “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone”


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/7/9_Game_Over_-_Its_All_A_Farce,_The_Fed_&_German_Gold_Is_Gone.html

You really need an avatar.

Bacchus
07-11-2013, 10:37 PM
~1 decade is not the type of investment we're talking about. You expressly said gold was a better investment for long term investing such as for retirement. I quote:



The investment period for a retirement plan is ~30-40 years (getting longer all the time). Over that time period, the stock market has always handedly outperformed gold.

Now of course, it's silly to not actively manage your portfolio, so of course you want to follow the cycles. When the markets are good, you buy stocks and other higher risk/higher reward things that will maximize your return (unless you are near retirement of course). When the market does poorly, you shift everything into lower risk/lower reward things like gold/ETFs, bonds, etc. But, putting all or the majority of your retirement into gold is foolhardy. If you really want to not deal with your retirement, your absolute best option is to dump it into an index fund and call it a 4 decade.

Of course, the need to follow those cycles is another knock against physical gold. It gets real expensive really quick to be buying/selling physical gold to follow the market. It will put a huge dent in your gains real quick (see my previous post to GB).

And finally, long term gold cap gains is taxed at 28% (it's considered a collectable and as such taxed differently). Long term stocks are taxed @ 15%. 401k/IRA withdrawls are taxed as regular income (or not taxed during withdrawl at all if you do a roth style). Given current tax rates, for a typical retiree that could mean as much as 2-4 times the tax rate for gold.

No thanks, I'll stick to a nice diverse portfolio that only includes a bit of gold/precious metals ETFs.

Also, gold has been a great investment since 2002ish. I wouldn't trade my AAPL stock for it though.

APPL in 2002: @7/share
in 2013: $420/share
Average yearly return: 45%

Gold in 2002: ~$300
in 2013: $1240
Average yearly return: 13%

Yes the stock market has outperformed gold. The trouble with the stock market is that there have been collapses every 7-10 years or so. If you do not have a lot of money to re-invest after a collapse then you will never make that money back.

Rich people do not have this problem they can lose a bunch of money in the market and double their investment knowing that it will bounce back. When you are investing in your retirement and then you lose it. Its gone forever mostly.

DenverBrit
07-12-2013, 06:40 AM
Yes the stock market has outperformed gold. The trouble with the stock market is that there have been collapses every 7-10 years or so. If you do not have a lot of money to re-invest after a collapse then you will never make that money back.

Rich people do not have this problem they can lose a bunch of money in the market and double their investment knowing that it will bounce back. When you are investing in your retirement and then you lose it. Its gone forever mostly.

You have to remember, you only lose money if you sell during a Bear market.

If you're invested properly and for the long term, you ride it out, and if you hold dividend yielding stocks, you continue to get the same income.

Meck77
07-18-2013, 10:08 AM
In my investment lifetime, gold has 'performed' twice, had you invested in gold 1980, you would have got your ass handed to you even if you held it up to the recent $1600 price. Gold lost value during that period in 'today's' dollars because inflation was in triple digits. Gold was held as a hedge against inflation. It failed miserably.

Gold is a sucker bet, the Dow has crushed gold as an investment during that period. And if you also held dividend stocks, you'd have made a fortune.

You really should Google Warren Buffet and gold investing.

If...if..if....

Any investment is a sucker bet if you don't play the peaks and valleys correctly.

BTW....I'm calling Bernakes bluff that he will be ending QE soon. I don't think they can or will.

Interesting times ahead! :yayaya: Bubble bubble bubble...pop...bubble bubble bubble pop!

Arkie
07-18-2013, 10:28 AM
BTW....I'm calling Bernakes bluff that he will be ending QE soon. I don't think they can or will.


He can, but the market will crash. QE is artificially pumping it up. Investors are betting this will continue. If they just hint that they will ease up, the market comes down. QE 1 wasn't enough. Neither was QE 2. QE Infinity is our new reality. That's not entirely true. It won't last forever, but the market will crash when QE eases up. The longer this goes on, the worse it will crash.

DenverBrit
07-18-2013, 10:54 AM
If...if..if....

Any investment is a sucker bet if you don't play the peaks and valleys correctly.

BTW....I'm calling Bernakes bluff that he will be ending QE soon. I don't think they can or will.

Interesting times ahead! :yayaya: Bubble bubble bubble...pop...bubble bubble bubble pop!

Not sure I get your point. There was no 'if', just facts.

As for 'any investment is a sucker bet" I disagree. Market timing is the sucker bet, dollar cost averaging into dividend stocks has been the play the last several years.....and still is.

mhgaffney
07-21-2013, 08:41 AM
Anyone hear what Bernanke said last week?

He said -- if we raise interest rates the economy will tank...

Exactly what Baja and I have been saying for many months.

MHG

DenverBrit
07-21-2013, 09:18 AM
Anyone hear what Bernanke said last week?

He said -- if we raise interest rates the economy will tank...

Exactly what Baja and I have been saying for many months.

MHG

Hardly earth shattering news. Economy 101, but keep beating your chest.

Rohirrim
07-21-2013, 09:56 AM
Hardly earth shattering news. Economy 101, but keep beating your chest.

I was going to say. Is there anybody who doesn't know that?

mhgaffney
07-21-2013, 10:22 AM
Well the real story is what PCR has been telling you doofs -- the fed has no wiggle room to fix anything.

There are no policy solutions -- assuming the status quo of protecting the too bigs.

The real solution would be to step back and watch them collapse -- like Madoffs ponzi scheme
MHG

baja
07-21-2013, 10:54 AM
Well the real story is what PCR has been telling you doofs -- the fed has no wiggle room to fix anything.

There are no policy solutions -- assuming the status quo of protecting the too bigs.

The real solution would be to step back and watch them collapse -- like Madoffs ponzi scheme
MHG


You better be deep in the woods with a lot of Rice-a-roni when that happens.

DenverBrit
07-21-2013, 01:55 PM
I was going to say. Is there anybody who doesn't know that?

Apparently, it was quite the revelation for Gaffney.

mhgaffney
07-21-2013, 04:07 PM
You better be deep in the woods with a lot of Rice-a-roni when that happens.

Rice A Roni is loaded with monosodium glutamate. I'll pass.

:)

mhgaffney
07-21-2013, 04:09 PM
They will keep pumping up the bubble until the system gets so weird that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon adds the last straw....

baja
07-21-2013, 04:21 PM
Rice A Roni is loaded with monosodium glutamate. I'll pass.

:)


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/MSpkLk0vYmk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

mhgaffney
07-21-2013, 04:53 PM
Right.

I have dropped all corn and soy products from my diet. Almost all of them are laced with Roundup, a serious carcinogen. It also destroys the liver and kidneys.

Monsanto has a near monopoly.

I now buy organic wheat bread -- which I am told is non GMO.

I also drink from my own private non fluoridated well water.

Please read labels BEFORE you buy processed food. If you do -- you won't buy it.

BTW, guess who was the Corporate CEO who used his sharp elbows to muscle Aspartame through the FDA approval process?

Yep, Rummy -- one of the architects of 9/11.
MHG

MHG

W*GS
07-21-2013, 05:59 PM
I also drink from my own private non fluoridated well water.

Interesting you call your own bladder a "well".

Rohirrim
07-21-2013, 07:37 PM
Right.

I have dropped all corn and soy products from my diet. Almost all of them are laced with Roundup, a serious carcinogen. It also destroys the liver and kidneys.

Monsanto has a near monopoly.

I now buy organic wheat bread -- which I am told is non GMO.

I also drink from my own private non fluoridated well water.

Please read labels BEFORE you buy processed food. If you do -- you won't buy it.

BTW, guess who was the Corporate CEO who used his sharp elbows to muscle Aspartame through the FDA approval process?

Yep, Rummy -- one of the architects of 9/11.
MHG

MHG

I'm surprised you don't make your own bread. All you have to have is a Nutrimill electric grain mill. Then you can buy 25# of wheat berries at a time. Cheap, and the bread is ten times better than anything you can buy. Better crumb. Better air. Better rise. Better taste.

mhgaffney
07-22-2013, 10:46 AM
I'm surprised you don't make your own bread. All you have to have is a Nutrimill electric grain mill. Then you can buy 25# of wheat berries at a time. Cheap, and the bread is ten times better than anything you can buy. Better crumb. Better air. Better rise. Better taste.

Good idea.

The organic bread in the store is also pretty expensive.

Rohirrim
07-22-2013, 11:16 AM
Good idea.

The organic bread in the store is also pretty expensive.

And don't use yeast. Yeast limits you to a single organism and limited taste. Make your own starter and just keep it going. It gets better with age.

mhgaffney
07-23-2013, 01:33 PM
David Stockman - Expect Financial Collapse & Flight To Gold

Today David Stockman warned King World News that there is a great “unwind” ahead that will “ricochet” violently through all global financial markets. Stockman also predicted there will be a worldwide flight to gold during the coming panic which will eclipse the mania seen in gold in 1980. KWN takes Stockman’s warning very seriously because he is the man former President Reagan called on in 1981, during that crisis, to become Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Below is what Stockman had to say in this powerful and exclusive interview.

Stockman: “The markets are just irrationally thrashing around in response to a Fed that has lost control of policy. They have been working their way to the edge of a cliff, I think, for years now with this massive money printing, bond buying, and zero interest rates.

They are saying through 2015 we are not going to tighten the short-term interest rate, which means it will be zero for (a total of) six years. That is just crazy, almost lunatic....

Listen to the David Stockman interview here...
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/7/23_David_A._Stockman.html

baja
07-23-2013, 02:07 PM
My advice; GET OUT OF DOLLARS. Buy rural land with water and fertile soil. Buy guns and amino, heirloom seeds, silver. Off the grid items i.e. solar panels switch small engines to propane, store a very large tank of propane. solar powered well pumps. Solar powered security cameras, root cellar. try and live amongst similar minded and prepared people. Once you have done all that sit back and enjoy life because right now is as good as it gets for a long while.

Fedaykin
07-24-2013, 02:46 AM
My advice; GET OUT OF DOLLARS. Buy rural land with water and fertile soil. Buy guns and amino, heirloom seeds, silver. Off the grid items i.e. solar panels switch small engines to propane, store a very large tank of propane. solar powered well pumps. Solar powered security cameras, root cellar. try and live amongst similar minded and prepared people. Once you have done all that sit back and enjoy life because right now is as good as it gets for a long while.
http://www.mattftw.com/wp-content/uploads/EndIsNear1.jpg

baja
07-24-2013, 04:47 AM
http://www.mattftw.com/wp-content/uploads/EndIsNear1.jpg

I never said the end is near the transition to a new human consciousness is near though and there will be a rough period.

Fedaykin
07-24-2013, 04:55 AM
I never said the end is near the transition to a new human consciousness is near though and there will be a rough period.

.. which of course is just another way of saying it's the end of the world as we know it. Bat**** crazy dressed up in newagey verbage is still bat**** crazy.

baja
07-24-2013, 05:32 AM
.. which of course is just another way of saying it's the end of the world as we know it. Bat**** crazy dressed up in newagey verbage is still bat**** crazy.

what ever you say

Like your fear will fix the problems.

Fedaykin
07-24-2013, 06:25 AM
what ever you say

Like your fear will fix the problems.

what fear are you imagining?

Arkie
07-24-2013, 10:48 AM
what fear are you imagining?

Fear of reality. You're in denial if you believe the US Dollar will be the reserve currency forever, and Americans can continue to live beyond their means like they have for the last 70 years. Anything other than that will be the end of the world as Americans know it.

DenverBrit
07-24-2013, 03:39 PM
http://www.mattftw.com/wp-content/uploads/EndIsNear1.jpg

:)

houghtam
07-24-2013, 04:26 PM
Fear of reality. You're in denial if you believe the US Dollar will be the reserve currency forever, and Americans can continue to live beyond their means like they have for the last 70 years. Anything other than that will be the end of the world as Americans know it.

The difference though is that "some people" are imagining roving bands of mobs and a post-apocalyptic scene directly out of Hollywood. The US may fall, but it won't be out of the Top 5 for a very long time. Quality of life may no longer support two cars, a boat and a 3500 sq ft house, but it's definitely not going to necessitate a bunker, 5 years worth of beet seeds and 100,000 rounds of ammunition.

Infrastructure and interdependence are too firmly entrenched to let that happen unless the rest of the world goes through the same thing.

So unless an asteroid hits or Yellowstone blows up or a zombie apocalypse happens, the preppers (and the people who buy gold as a hedge against economic collapse) are just wasting their time and money.

If an asteroid does hit, then it will just be the gold buyers that look dumb.

Meck77
07-24-2013, 04:48 PM
The difference though is that "some people" are imagining roving bands of mobs and a post-apocalyptic scene directly out of Hollywood. The US may fall, but it won't be out of the Top 5 for a very long time. Quality of life may no longer support two cars, a boat and a 3500 sq ft house, but it's definitely not going to necessitate a bunker, 5 years worth of beet seeds and 100,000 rounds of ammunition.

Infrastructure and interdependence are too firmly entrenched to let that happen unless the rest of the world goes through the same thing.

So unless an asteroid hits or Yellowstone blows up or a zombie apocalypse happens, the preppers (and the people who buy gold as a hedge against economic collapse) are just wasting their time and money.

If an asteroid does hit, then it will just be the gold buyers that look dumb.

Happiness and peace are a state of mind. Some people have chosen to live in an apocalpytic state of mind since the 60's. ;D

"Oh the 60's were the glory years we will never be that free again"
"The 70's they were the best!"
"Y2k....hide!"
"9-11 this is the big one"
"2012!!!!"
"2014 this has to be it"

so on and so on......

All of a sudden 50 years passes you by and you never lived at peace.

If a nuclear bomb hit my house today I would care less because ya'll are going with me anyway.

mhgaffney
07-25-2013, 10:26 AM
Meck - what a bunch of BS. Baja has made it clear he enjoys life -- and I do as well

It's about waking up to reality --

The biggest problem now is mind control.

People are not aware of the true extent of government lying -- on a range of issues -- and when I say gov't I include corporate America.

The gov't now serves the too bigs. simple as that

Fedaykin
07-25-2013, 10:34 AM
Fear of reality. You're in denial if you believe the US Dollar will be the reserve currency forever, and Americans can continue to live beyond their means like they have for the last 70 years. Anything other than that will be the end of the world as Americans know it.

I'm not the one who has issues dealing with reality. Baja envisions an apocalypse resulting in an agrarian society, which is not what the things you describe (which I don't dispute) would cause.

Meck77
07-25-2013, 06:14 PM
Meck - what a bunch of BS. Baja has made it clear he enjoys life -- and I do as well

It's about waking up to reality --

The biggest problem now is mind control.

People are not aware of the true extent of government lying -- on a range of issues -- and when I say gov't I include corporate America.

The gov't now serves the too bigs. simple as that

One cannot be at peace if they are in constant attack mode. How one interacts in this community is a reflection of life.

Anger and living in the past are wasted emotions/energy.

Who rules the world is irrelevant to ones personal inner peace.

baja
07-25-2013, 06:45 PM
One cannot be at peace if they are in constant attack mode. How one interacts in this community is a reflection of life.

Anger and living in the past are wasted emotions/energy.

Who rules the world is irrelevant to ones personal inner peace.


Dude you crack me up - You really think you have a clue about my inner peace by reading a message board.

You have no clue about who I am. Hell you don't even understand the point of most of my posts. You think I hate the USA while in fact I am pointing out there is a takeover of the USA by sinister outside forces

Now lets see you post a pic of a lizard.

You're pretty dumb Meck.

houghtam
07-25-2013, 07:01 PM
Dude you crack me up - You really think you have a clue about my inner peace by reading a message board.

You have no clue about who I am. Hell you don't even understand the point of most of my posts. You think I hate the USA while in fact I am pointing out there is a takeover of the USA by sinister outside forces

Now lets see you post a pic of a lizard.

You're pretty dumb Meck.

No, he's pretty spot on, actually. "Sinister outside forces" would not affect your "inner peace" if you actually had any.

baja
07-25-2013, 07:22 PM
No, he's pretty spot on, actually. "Sinister outside forces" would not affect your "inner peace" if you actually had any.

My only reason for posting what i do is in hopes of waking up people because if enough people wake up the worst case scenario can be avoided. It is so easy to stop this if enough people wake up. Consider my effort a public service. Either way I will be fine because I, like all humans, am not my body.

It is amazing how so many of you project your latent fears onto messengers like Mark and myself. It is guys like you and Meck that harbor latent fear of the future I warn about, You know it is coming, you feel it but you can't accept this reality because it's just too damn scary. That is why you can't allow yourself to see these things as they are even though they are in plain sight. Like Jack Nicholson said, "You can't handle the truth". ;D


None the less I see it as my duty to try and enlighten you as to what is afoot.

Rohirrim
07-25-2013, 07:38 PM
My only reason for posting what i do is in hopes of waking up people because if enough people wake up the worst case scenario can be avoided. It is so easy to stop this if enough people wake up. Consider my effort a public service. Either way I will be fine because I, like all humans, am not my body.

It is amazing how so many of you project your latent fears onto messengers like Mark and myself. It is guys like you and Meck that harbor latent fear of the future I warn about, You know it is coming, you feel it but you can't accept this reality because it's just too damn scary. That is why you can't allow yourself to see these things as they are even though they are in plain sight. Like Jack Nicholson said, "You can't handle the truth". ;D


None the less I see it as my duty to try and enlighten you as to what is afoot.

You need to watch this vid: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3882509&postcount=29

ak1971
07-25-2013, 08:37 PM
Well the real story is what PCR has been telling you doofs -- the fed has no wiggle room to fix anything.

There are no policy solutions -- assuming the status quo of protecting the too bigs.

The real solution would be to step back and watch them collapse -- like Madoffs ponzi scheme
MHG

Do you jerk off to this guy or what? Or do you show up and just blow him?

baja
07-25-2013, 08:42 PM
You need to watch this vid: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3882509&postcount=29


That's pretty funny.;D

Terrorists are not our problem.

baja
07-25-2013, 09:29 PM
You need to watch this vid: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3882509&postcount=29


Here's one for you;

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/3F3ovb2kZ9Q" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

mhgaffney
07-26-2013, 02:09 AM
Do you jerk off to this guy or what? Or do you show up and just blow him?

It's rare when someone tells the truth. Apparently you don't give a shyte.

Fine. Be a slug. Live a slug's life. At some point you may be stepped on.

MHG

ak1971
07-27-2013, 08:48 AM
It's rare when someone tells the truth. Apparently you don't give a shyte.

Fine. Be a slug. Live a slug's life. At some point you may be stepped on.

MHG

so you admit you have his balls in your mouth..

mhgaffney
07-31-2013, 05:37 PM
CEO Eric Sprott says we have seen the bottom on gold - - from here we go up up up

The shorts are running scared... it's about to turn...


http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/7/28_Eric_Sprott.html

mhgaffney
07-31-2013, 05:47 PM
Swiss Finance manager says the bond market will collapse in the biggest meltdown the world has ever seen...

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/7/27_Egon_von_Greyerz.html

ak1971
07-31-2013, 11:34 PM
Swiss Finance manager says the bond market will collapse in the biggest meltdown the world has ever seen...

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/7/27_Egon_von_Greyerz.html

Yawn...so when is gold hitting 2k? Thought that was in 07?

baja
08-01-2013, 05:42 AM
Yawn...so when is gold hitting 2k? Thought that was in 07?

It got close enough for some of us to make a handsome profit. Currently I'll be staying out of the gold market it is being manipulated so no thanks.

and being liquid in dollars is just as stupid.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 10:56 AM
Gold is a sucker bet
date: 07/08/2013
price: $1,238/oz (on it's way up from $1200)

today's price: $1,311/oz. :thanku:

Only the suckers sold their gold in the low $1200's. It won't be back down there for a long time.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 10:58 AM
Yawn...so when is gold hitting 2k? Thought that was in 07?

$79. That's how close it got to 2k. It will be back up there before it ever drops to 1K.

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 11:09 AM
date: 07/08/2013
price: $1,238/oz (on it's way up from $1200)

today's price: $1,311/oz. :thanku:

Only the suckers sold their gold in the low $1200's. It won't be back down there for a long time.


It got close enough for some of us to make a handsome profit. Currently I'll be staying out of the gold market it is being manipulated so no thanks.

5.8%? Weak. In the current market that chump change. I've gotten a 30% overall return on my rather conservative investments in that three weeks.

In the span of the last 6 months, I have close to a 300% return (take out the one lucky pick, and it's still 150% or more). Gold is still down 20% in the last 6 months. Even my conservative mutual fund retirement investments have returned 40% in the last 6 months.

And, when things take a downturn (as they inevitably will) I'll probably cash out and pay off my mortgage and will then have real wealth rather than shiny chunks of useless metal.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 03:36 PM
5.8%? Weak. In the current market that chump change. I've gotten a 30% overall return on my rather conservative investments in that three weeks.

In the span of the last 6 months, I have close to a 300% return (take out the one lucky pick, and it's still 150% or more). Gold is still down 20% in the last 6 months. Even my conservative mutual fund retirement investments have returned 40% in the last 6 months.

And, when things take a downturn (as they inevitably will) I'll probably cash out and pay off my mortgage and will then have real wealth rather than shiny chunks of useless metal.

That's great! :thumbs:
I bet gold outperforms the Dow over the next 6 months. We can bring this thread back up when it does. Then you can tell us how your portfolio grows over the next 6 months. You can list the stocks now or just wait and post them in 6 months after you cherry pick the winners.

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 04:13 PM
That's great! :thumbs:
I bet gold outperforms the Dow over the next 6 months. We can bring this thread back up when it does. Then you can tell us how your portfolio grows over the next 6 months. You can list the stocks now or just wait and post them in 6 months after you cherry pick the winners.

And what if it does? Like I already showed, the DOW has outperformed gold over the long term since its inception, by a large margin. And that's the DOW, not individual portfolios that are carefully managed.

I could lose almost everything and I'd still be ahead of gold. I started investing about 5 years ago. Gold is up 43% in that time. I'm up nearly 1000% on the original money I invested 5 years ago (my cumulative return is significantly less, but only because I keep adding to the pot).

Predicting that the markets are going to correct sometime in the near future is about as lame a financial prediction as a person can make. We're almost 5 years into a bull market and the average bull market only lasts 5-7 years.

Besides -- when the markets correct, that's good. Just means everything's on sale. Sell high, buy back in low.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 05:30 PM
And what if it does? Like I already showed, the DOW has outperformed gold over the long term since its inception, by a large margin. And that's the DOW, not individual portfolios that are carefully managed.


I'm not disputing that. Gold was at a fixed price for most of that time. The Dow and gold have performed about the same since the early 70's when we dropped the fixed price. Gold performed better from 1970-2011. Gold has performed better since 1999 even with the Fed throwing every trick at Wall Street.


I could lose almost everything and I'd still be ahead of gold. I started investing about 5 years ago. Gold is up 43% in that time. I'm up nearly 1000% on the original money I invested 5 years ago (my cumulative return is significantly less, but only because I keep adding to the pot).


I agree. The Dow has outperformed gold over the past 5 years, but that's only been true over the last 7 months when gold tanked. Gold is cheap again. Also, keep in mind the Fed is running out of tricks. They've set fed rates to 0% four years running, bailed out Wall St, implemented QE1, QE2, and an open-ended QE3.


Predicting that the markets are going to correct sometime in the near future is about as lame a financial prediction as a person can make. We're almost 5 years into a bull market and the average bull market only lasts 5-7 years.


So we both agree on this too. It may not be such a lame prediction though. The buyers are betting we're wrong.



Besides -- when the markets correct, that's good. Just means everything's on sale. Sell high, buy back in low.

I agree, but somebody has to be willing to buy high for you to sell at that price (or sell to you at a low price after holding the bag on the way down.) It's only good for half the people at the top and half the people at the bottom. Even fewer people manage to position themselves in both the right half at the top and the bottom.

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 05:57 PM
I'm not disputing that. Gold was at a fixed price for most of that time. The Dow and gold have performed about the same since the early 70's when we dropped the fixed price. Gold performed better from 1970-2011. Gold has performed better since 1999 even with the Fed throwing every trick at Wall Street.


Sorry, you're entirely wrong. The DOW has cleaned gold's clock (long term) since 1970. No competition. At times gold outperforms for a while, but over the long haul, the DOW has always done way better.

See my earlier posts in this thread.


I agree. The Dow has outperformed gold over the past 5 years, but that's only been true over the last 7 months when gold tanked. Gold is cheap again. Also, keep in mind the Fed is running out of tricks. They've set fed rates to 0% four years running, bailed out Wall St, implemented QE1, QE2, and an open-ended QE3.


You seriously need to learn some math and apply it to this situation. The DOW (and other stock markets) have been raping gold on an ROI for a lot longer than 7 months. And it's not that gold is a bad thing to diversify with (I have physical gold myself -- it's about 3-5% of my holdings as well as gold ETFs -- another 5-8%), but as an investment (per the OP), it's been far, far inferior to stocks for pretty much ever.

As an all-in investment it's completely idiotic. (which could be said about pretty much any investment, not ragging on gold there).


So we both agree on this too. It may not be such a lame prediction though. The buyers are betting we're wrong.


The buyers are betting, and that's fine.


I agree, but somebody has to be willing to buy high for you to sell at that price (or sell to you at a low price after holding the bag on the way down.) It's only good for half the people at the top and half the people at the bottom. Even fewer people manage to position themselves in both the right half at the top and the bottom.

Even with a meltdown on the scale of 2007/8, we're talking a 50% loss in value, in which case I'm still way ahead of gold. And, I invest only in companies with solid fundamentals, so in the event of a crash

a.) I won't be stuck with worthless TP overnight and
b.) worst case scenario I just have to hold on until things eventually come back. You only lose money (on a stock with a solid company) in a downturn if you sell during the downturn.

Look at Apple. In 2009 they dipped down to $80 from $200. If you had Apple stock in $200/share stock in 2009 and panicked, you would have lost more than half your investment. Had you looked at Apple, and seen that even in 2009 they were operating from a solid foundation, you would have been fine, and now doubled your money instead (or more than tripled if you sold in 2012 instead).

And in actuality, I've already liquidated about 1/3 of my holdings (mostly my higher risk holdings and holdings that are interest rate sensitive), just to hedge against the typical summer slump in the markets and because of the possible QE changes and rising interest rates. Assuming things look good, I'll buy back in fully in OCT. If things start to falter, I'll pull back even more and exit anything resembling high risk.

The people that take the biggest hit are the people that start tossing money at high risk investments near the end of a bull market. Be educated, apply some investment 101 knowledge, and you'll do fine.

It's pretty much investing 101. Don't chase returns (especially in times of uncertainty!), guard against slumps. Losing 50% of an investment means you need to double what you have left to get back to square 1.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 06:27 PM
The DOW has cleaned gold's clock (long term) since 1970.

Gold started at $37 and was $1,920 in 2011. Like I said, even at $1,300 it's outperformed the Dow over the last 15 years.

houghtam
08-01-2013, 06:50 PM
Gold started at $37 and was $1,920 in 2011. Like I said, even at $1,300 it's outperformed the Dow over the last 15 years.

Dude my left nut has outperformed the Dow over the last 15.

He's talking about an investment lifetime here, which is much longer.

Rohirrim
08-01-2013, 06:57 PM
http://prhalloffame.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/bling-king.gif?w=510

Arkie
08-01-2013, 07:08 PM
Dude my left nut has outperformed the Dow over the last 15.

He's talking about an investment lifetime here, which is much longer.

He said the Dow cleaned gold's clock since 1970. That's not true. In fact, gold performed better 1970-2011.

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/dow_jones_to_gold_ratio_1970-20121.gif

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 07:19 PM
Gold started at $37 and was $1,920 in 2011.


LMAO

$37 was a fixed, legislated price (i.e. the gold standard), not a market price. It only existed at a time when it was illegal for individuals or companies to possess gold in significant quantities.

Sure, if you happened to illegally own a large amount of gold during that transition, you made some serious money (or went to prison). It wasn't legal to own large amounts of physical gold until 1974, after the U.S. exited the gold standard.

In other words, calling $35 the starting market price of gold is silly, bordering on the absurd. The only people that had any serious investment opportunity starting at that price were unlawfully in posession of that gold.

In 1974, after it was legal to actually posses in large (investment) quantities, the price of gold started at $155/oz.

In other words, an ~8x gain is the best you could legally get out of gold (~12x if you sold at peak in 2011). The Dow has gained ~25x in that same time frame.


Like I said, even at $1,300 it's outperformed the Dow over the last 15 years.

It's cute that you specifically pick the peak of a DOW bubble as your starting point. A few months in either direction and it completely changes the outcome (see: bubble!). I can play that game too! how about we pick 1980-present for a comparison?

We've already been over this multiple times...

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 07:27 PM
Hell, even at the depths of the great recession (2009) the DOW was still clocking in @ nearly 12x (7000/600) overall ROI, while gold was clocking in at only 6x (1000/155)

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 07:30 PM
And that's only considering GROWTH, not dividends!

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 07:36 PM
I will cop to being lazy saying 1970 instead of 1974...

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 07:52 PM
another fun comparison:

1900:
Dow: $68
Gold: $20.67

2013:
Dow: 15,600
Gold (peak!): 1920

Overall ROI:

Gold (peak!!!): 1920/20.67 = 93x
Gold (present): 1300/20.67: 63x
Dow: 15600/68 = 229x

The Dow >>>> Gold in the long term. Absolutely no competition. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

Arkie
08-01-2013, 08:11 PM
another fun comparison:

1900:
Dow: $68
Gold: $20.67

2013:
Dow: 15,600
Gold (peak!): 1920

Overall ROI:

Gold (peak!!!): 1920/20.67 = 93x
Gold (present): 1300/20.67: 63x
Dow: 15600/68 = 229x

The Dow >>>> Gold in the long term. Absolutely no competition. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

I've already agreed with that several posts ago. Gold was fixed for 2/3rds that time. They are comparable since the 70's, and comparing them to the present will put the Dow in it's best light. It's at an all time high and gold is selling cheap.

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 08:15 PM
I've already agreed with that several posts ago. Gold was fixed for 2/3rds that time. They are comparable since the 70's, and comparing them to the present will put the Dow in it's best light. It's at an all time high and gold is selling cheap.

They are only comparable if you POSSESSED GOLD ILLEGALLY UNDER THE GOLD STANDARD.

If you IGNORE CRIMINALS, the dow has spanked gold hands down.

Fedaykin
08-01-2013, 08:16 PM
Post 706 Arkie. Read it.

houghtam
08-01-2013, 11:18 PM
LMAO

$37 was a fixed, legislated price (i.e. the gold standard), not a market price. It only existed at a time when it was illegal for individuals or companies to possess gold in significant quantities.

Sure, if you happened to illegally own a large amount of gold during that transition, you made some serious money (or went to prison). It wasn't legal to own large amounts of physical gold until 1974, after the U.S. exited the gold standard.

In other words, calling $35 the starting market price of gold is silly, bordering on the absurd. The only people that had any serious investment opportunity starting at that price were unlawfully in posession of that gold.

In 1974, after it was legal to actually posses in large (investment) quantities, the price of gold started at $155/oz.

In other words, an ~8x gain is the best you could legally get out of gold (~12x if you sold at peak in 2011). The Dow has gained ~25x in that same time frame.



It's cute that you specifically pick the peak of a DOW bubble as your starting point. A few months in either direction and it completely changes the outcome (see: bubble!). I can play that game too! how about we pick 1980-present for a comparison?

We've already been over this multiple times...

In other words...

Let's pretend someone is paying $250/oz for marijuana, which is currently illegal and I in no way shape or form condone... At some point in the future when marijuana is legalized, if it were a publicly traded commodity, starting from what that person paid in 2013 ($250/oz) to wherever the commodity was valued 40 years from the point at which it was legalized and became publicly traded is not exactly a very good method of measurement, especially against a standard of measurement (the Dow) which had been around for far longer.

Fedaykin
08-02-2013, 07:16 AM
In other words...

Let's pretend someone is paying $250/oz for marijuana, which is currently illegal and I in no way shape or form condone... At some point in the future when marijuana is legalized, if it were a publicly traded commodity, starting from what that person paid in 2013 ($250/oz) to wherever the commodity was valued 40 years from the point at which it was legalized and became publicly traded is not exactly a very good method of measurement, especially against a standard of measurement (the Dow) which had been around for far longer.

The 5x price increase between 1970 and 1974 was essentially a price correction for gold having been artificially pegged to the dollar at a ridiculously low price, because yes, even during the gold standard inflation occurred. There's nothing about saying pieces of paper are backed by gold that prevents extra pieces of paper from being printed. If you believe otherwise, I have a bridge to sell ya...

mhgaffney
08-15-2013, 02:56 PM
Are we in the calm before the storm? Some think so. MHG

Gold & Silver To Skyrocket As Stocks Begin Historic Collapse

On the heels of recent strength in gold and silver, today a 58-year market veteran warned King World News that global stock markets are now poised for a breathtaking collapse. Ron Rosen, who has been at this business for almost six decades, also told KWN that gold and silver will skyrocket as the markets begin this historic collapse.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/8/14_Gold_%26_Silver_To_Skyrocket_As_Stocks_Begin_Hi storic_Collapse.html

Meck77
08-27-2013, 10:49 AM
If...if..if....

Any investment is a sucker bet if you don't play the peaks and valleys correctly.

BTW....I'm calling Bernakes bluff that he will be ending QE soon. I don't think they can or will.

Interesting times ahead! :yayaya: Bubble bubble bubble...pop...bubble bubble bubble pop!

Well the markets seem to be agreeing with me. Perhaps if you listened you are up about 20% since this post.

DenverBrit
08-27-2013, 11:01 AM
Well the markets seem to be agreeing with me. Perhaps if you listened you are up about 20% since this post.

Gold is responding to equities, as it always does....especially after the spectacular drop in gold's value. Nothing new or unexpected and not a 'wealth preservation' play, more like a Vegas play. :)

This is a good time to look at moving away from bonds and getting ready for a buying opportunity in stocks.

Gold will drop again when equities have fully 'corrected' and get back to a bull market.

In the meantime, stocks pay out the same dollar amount in dividends while we wait.

Meck77
08-27-2013, 11:08 AM
Gold is responding to equities, as it always does....especially after the spectacular drop in gold's value. Nothing new or unexpected and not a 'wealth preservation' play, more like a Vegas play. :)

This is a good time to look at moving away from bonds and getting ready for a buying opportunity in stocks.

Gold will drop again when equities have fully 'corrected' and get back to a bull market.

In the meantime, stocks pay out the same dollar amount in dividends while we wait.

I have my share of dividend stocks, rentals, other business interests. My point was there was a 20% opportunity that just happened. You either took advantage of it or in your case sounds like you didn't. $18.75 silver is feeling real good right now!

The $1,000 gold club ak1971 will have to keep on waiting...and waiting...and waiting.....It's not happening...

Arkie
08-27-2013, 11:09 AM
Pay attention to the dow gold ratio.

DenverBrit
08-27-2013, 11:14 AM
I have my share of dividend stocks, rentals, other business interests. My point was there was a 20% opportunity that just happened. You either took advantage of it or in your case sounds like you didn't. $18.75 silver is feeling real good right now!

The $1,000 gold club ak1971 will have to keep on waiting...and waiting...and waiting.....It's not happening...

You're right, I didn't, but then I didn't have the benefit of your hindsight. If I did, I'd have known which stocks to sell to pay for the gold. ;D

So how long will that gold be worth what you paid for it and on which date will you sell?

Meck77
08-27-2013, 12:45 PM
You're right, I didn't, but then I didn't have the benefit of your hindsight. If I did, I'd have known which stocks to sell to pay for the gold. ;D

So how long will that gold be worth what you paid for it and on which date will you sell?

It's impossible to time to tops and bottoms. I'm sure you have a few stocks in your portfolio you bought a little high. The key is to be able to double down on "buying opportunities". It all equals out in the wash. Never opposed to locking in profits though. Just have to go with your gut.

Precious metals took a dive on the Fed fake they were going to taper QE. I thought it was BS in july and I still maintain that it's crap.

Even if they do the debt ceiling will be hit yet again in Oct. Unemployment numbers aren't were they have been targeting them to be. Factor in another war with Syria commodity prices could get real interesting.

"You go to know when to hold em...know when to fold em...know when to walk away know when to run"....

mhgaffney
08-27-2013, 02:59 PM
Question: When is a "correction" not a correction?

Answer: When it's a crash.

MHG

Arkie
08-28-2013, 04:04 PM
You're right, I didn't, but then I didn't have the benefit of your hindsight. If I did, I'd have known which stocks to sell to pay for the gold. ;D

So how long will that gold be worth what you paid for it and on which date will you sell?

You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost. My challenge still stands. Pick any stock you think will outperform gold over 6 months starting today.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3886419&postcount=698

This challenge is just a game, not investment advice for people taking my side. Timing the market is the hardest part. I don't pick the dates when to sell, just the prices. I won't sell in 6 months if gold outperforms stocks. I will only sell some gold when it's over $2200, or when the dow/gold ratio is below 5. That could be a matter of months or years. Too many variables are in play that can be manipulated.

ZONA
08-28-2013, 04:06 PM
When I first read this I thought it said "Golf is now a bad investment."

We don't care about your bad eyesight

Fedaykin
08-28-2013, 04:39 PM
You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost. My challenge still stands. Pick any stock you think will outperform gold over 6 months starting today.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3886419&postcount=698

This challenge is just a game, not investment advice for people taking my side. Timing the market is the hardest part. I don't pick the dates when to sell, just the prices. I won't sell in 6 months if gold outperforms stocks. I will only sell some gold when it's over $2200, or when the dow/gold ratio is below 5. That could be a matter of months or years. Too many variables are in play that can be manipulated.


You still don't understand. Six months is nothing. It's pretty sad at this point.

DenverBrit
08-28-2013, 04:54 PM
You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost. My challenge still stands. Pick any stock you think will outperform gold over 6 months starting today.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showpost.php?p=3886419&postcount=698

This challenge is just a game, not investment advice for people taking my side. Timing the market is the hardest part. I don't pick the dates when to sell, just the prices. I won't sell in 6 months if gold outperforms stocks. I will only sell some gold when it's over $2200, or when the dow/gold ratio is below 5. That could be a matter of months or years. Too many variables are in play that can be manipulated.

When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it. :thumbsup:

Fedaykin
08-28-2013, 05:15 PM
Well the markets seem to be agreeing with me. Perhaps if you listened you are up about 20% since this post.

Gold has been a decent short term play the last 6 weeks, for sure, but the general "bounce" from QE shenanigans was not limited to gold by any means. Many of my investment are up that much or more in that time period (one is up almost 70%), though the bulk of what I have is in mutual funds that have been net flat (value wise) since the end of June so overall I'm only up (value wise) about 7% in that time. I haven't done the math on dividends, but typically in a quarter I make 2-3% in dividends too which would put me at about 10% up. I'm (mostly) a long game investor, not a short term gambler, so that's how it rolls.

Yay for short term plays!

Fedaykin
08-28-2013, 05:17 PM
When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it. :thumbsup:

And when you don't lose 20% to fees, markup, shipping, etc. Or pay double the tax on long term gains.

Fedaykin
08-28-2013, 05:35 PM
You should sell any stocks to pay for gold at today's prices and especially at the prices a month ago when gold was at selling cost.


Sell all your stocks and go all in on Gold? That's perhaps the singularly most idiotic financial advice I have seen in years.

Fedaykin
08-28-2013, 06:30 PM
Arkie and Meck77: Let's do the math on this, shall we?

Say, for argument's sake, you were clarvoyant, and knew to buy gold @ ~$1220 when it bottomed out in July. The current spot price is 1409. Say you bought 10 gold bullion coins.

So, you're now up 15.5% right? (note, this isn't even the 20% that has, I think, been claimed). That's a really great return for 30 days! Woohoo!

Err wait, not so fast. Despite the spot price being $1220, that's not what you could actually buy gold for. You had to buy from a cheap online dealer, and even the reputable ones charge 5-6% over spot (in quantities of at least $10,000/purchase) as their base price. There are also several other fees:

* If you're smart and pay cash, you have to do a wire transfer which can cost an average of $20
* If you're dumb and buy with a credit card, you typically pay another 3% fee since the dealers want to recover their fees to the credit card companies. (many dealers won't even accept credit cards)
* Then you have to ship/insure, which is typically a flat fee + a % of your purchase. Kitco is a dealer I've used before, and they charge $30 + $4/$1,000 (7.5/1000 for silver). For our purchase, that's about $80 in shipping.

Then, when I go to sell, I have to pay wire transfer fees and shipping fees again. It's almost certain that it'll cost significantly more to ship to a dealer since they probably get a bulk discount on shipping, but for argument's sake we'll say it's the same cost again (another $20 + $80 ).

Most dealer's won't pay you that 5% over spot to buy it back, typically they buy back @ 1-2% over spot.

So, to turn around those 10 coins at a buy spot price of $1220 and a sell spot price of 1409, I actually have to pay (using real values from Kitco)

Purchase:
$12,200 + $650 (markup) + $20 (wire fee buy) + $80 (shipping from) = $12,950 or $1,295 per coin ($75 over spot)

Sale:
$14,090 + $250 (markup) - $20 (wire fee) - $80 (shipping fee) = $14,240 or $1,424 per coin ( $15 over spot)

So, my actual return (bets case scenario) is: 10%

If I buy locally, the shipping/insurance/etc. is just built into the markup instead.

Taking gold as a short term play is not a particularly good idea (it's worked out fairly well in this case, but only because of a particularly large bounce). The risk/reward just isn't there for that kind of high risk move. The hit you take in markup and fees (in this case 1/3) is brutal.

I made that (10%) with stocks/mutual funds being very conservative having the bulk of my assets in mutual funds. (note:I pay right now $4.99 a trade, which actually get's figured into my gains/losses which helps mitigate that). Had I been a lot more into my aggressive investments, I could have made significantly more in that time frame.

Also: not unsurprisingly, 10% is pretty much exactly the performance of gold ETFs over this time period

ak1971
08-28-2013, 09:32 PM
Arkie and Meck77: Let's do the math on this, shall we?

Say, for argument's sake, you were clarvoyant, and knew to buy gold @ ~$1220 when it bottomed out in July. The current spot price is 1409. Say you bought 10 gold bullion coins.

So, you're now up 15.5% right? (note, this isn't even the 20% that has, I think, been claimed). That's a really great return for 30 days! Woohoo!

Err wait, not so fast. Despite the spot price being $1220, that's not what you could actually buy gold for. You had to buy from a cheap online dealer, and even the reputable ones charge 5-6% over spot (in quantities of at least $10,000/purchase) as their base price. There are also several other fees:

* If you're smart and pay cash, you have to do a wire transfer which can cost an average of $20
* If you're dumb and buy with a credit card, you typically pay another 3% fee since the dealers want to recover their fees to the credit card companies. (many dealers won't even accept credit cards)
* Then you have to ship/insure, which is typically a flat fee + a % of your purchase. Kitco is a dealer I've used before, and they charge $30 + $4/$1,000 (7.5/1000 for silver). For our purchase, that's about $80 in shipping.

Then, when I go to sell, I have to pay wire transfer fees and shipping fees again. It's almost certain that it'll cost significantly more to ship to a dealer since they probably get a bulk discount on shipping, but for argument's sake we'll say it's the same cost again (another $20 + $80 ).

Most dealer's won't pay you that 5% over spot to buy it back, typically they buy back @ 1-2% over spot.

So, to turn around those 10 coins at a buy spot price of $1220 and a sell spot price of 1409, I actually have to pay (using real values from Kitco)

Purchase:
$12,200 + $650 (markup) + $20 (wire fee buy) + $80 (shipping from) = $12,950 or $1,295 per coin ($75 over spot)

Sale:
$14,090 + $250 (markup) - $20 (wire fee) - $80 (shipping fee) = $14,240 or $1,424 per coin ( $15 over spot)

So, my actual return (bets case scenario) is: 10%

If I buy locally, the shipping/insurance/etc. is just built into the markup instead.

Taking gold as a short term play is not a particularly good idea (it's worked out fairly well in this case, but only because of a particularly large bounce). The risk/reward just isn't there for that kind of high risk move. The hit you take in markup and fees (in this case 1/3) is brutal.

I made that (10%) with stocks/mutual funds being very conservative having the bulk of my assets in mutual funds. (note:I pay right now $4.99 a trade, which actually get's figured into my gains/losses which helps mitigate that). Had I been a lot more into my aggressive investments, I could have made significantly more in that time frame.

Also: not unsurprisingly, 10% is pretty much exactly the performance of gold ETFs over this time period

:thumbs: IMHO the play with gold is with the miners ETFs

baja
08-28-2013, 09:46 PM
Currency is the play right now. Remember this statement

BowlenBall
08-29-2013, 02:49 AM
Currency is the play right now. Remember this statement

All currency? Isn't that a zero-sum game?

baja
08-29-2013, 06:43 AM
All currency? Isn't that a zero-sum game?

not ALL currency just the one's that are about to revalue

Arkie
08-29-2013, 10:46 AM
When gold starts paying at least a 6% dividend, raises it annually and can be valued based upon earnings and profits, I'll look at it. :thumbsup:

Here's a few gold mining stocks with 5-7% divs

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/10664_13664634386117_0.png

Arkie
08-29-2013, 10:56 AM
You still don't understand. Six months is nothing. It's pretty sad at this point.

13 years and counting...

The gold bull started in 1999, but the bull run is measured in price not years. The 2nd half may only take a year. The first half has taken 13 years. The correction from 2011 to 2013 reminds me of the gold correction from 1975 to 1977.

DenverBrit
08-29-2013, 11:04 AM
Here's a few gold mining stocks with 5-7% divs

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/4/10664_13664634386117_0.png

They do, but mining stocks have been lousy investments.

Take a look at some of the traded oil services Limited Partnerships, they have both excellent growth and good dividend yields.

Rohirrim
08-29-2013, 11:07 AM
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/g4Uv4ftekaI?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Arkie
08-29-2013, 03:37 PM
Sell all your stocks and go all in on Gold? That's perhaps the singularly most idiotic financial advice I have seen in years.

Read what I said. ANY stocks, not ALL stocks. I can't think of a single stock that has a better chance than gold over the short term. Neither can you. You've already stated that a downturn is inevitable, and that you would cash in and pay off your mortgage. That would be a smart move while stocks are still high. Have you done that already?

Arkie
08-29-2013, 03:42 PM
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/g4Uv4ftekaI?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Also gold dealers short their gold. They only make money off the spread. If gold goes down, they are protected by the short. If it goes up, they aren't any richer because they shorted it.

Meck77
08-29-2013, 04:34 PM
Fedyakin. You made a lot of assumptions. The biggest one was paying above spot for gold. You'd be shocked at how much under spot people are willing to sell for. My margins are greater than 20% the last few months. There are many ways to skin a cat. Gold certainly isn't the only tool to make a buck or I should say transform a dollar.

Try buying stocks at a 5-10% discount.

Fedaykin
08-30-2013, 01:15 PM
Fedyakin. You made a lot of assumptions. The biggest one was paying above spot for gold. You'd be shocked at how much under spot people are willing to sell for.


Such as? Please do tell the group.

No doubt someone very plugged into the gold markets can find a good deal. A typical investor? Not so much.


My margins are greater than 20% the last few months. There are many ways to skin a cat. Gold certainly isn't the only tool to make a buck or I should say transform a dollar.


Good for you.

Like I said a few posts ago, I've more than doubled my "play" money in the last few months. Not because I'm some great investor, just due to the nature of the markets and because I'm willing to tolerate (and closely manage!) the risk necessary to do that.


Try buying stocks at a 5-10% discount.

Buying stock "at a discount" is called waiting for a market correction or a panic on a particular stock due to, for example, slightly less than expected profits reported (you can do very well by working panic sell offs, I have). Hell, because of the Syria business lots of stocks are at a 5-10% discount right now.

Fedaykin
08-30-2013, 01:58 PM
Read what I said. ANY stocks, not ALL stocks. I can't think of a single stock that has a better chance than gold over the short term. Neither can you.


I can think of many investments (not necessarily stocks) that have a better chance than gold over the short term if there is a significant downturn. For example, a selection of hundreds of reverse ETFs (ETFs that seek to perform inversely to an index, market segment, etc. via shorting and other "betting against the market" strategies -- these are pretty much the go to "make money during a downturn" investment options).

Remember: judging any single investment by it's previous performance is pretty much investment suicide. Gold *might* go up, or it *might* go down. IMHO it's currently still highly over valued. Right now it's something people are investing in for emotional, not practical reasons. The big boys already have started getting out (as we discussed several pages back). They've squeezed what they think they can get out of the bubble, and are taking their profits and running.


You've already stated that a downturn is inevitable, and that you would cash in and pay off your mortgage. That would be a smart move while stocks are still high. Have you done that already?

I'm watching things very closely and will make more moves when I see it as necessary. I've already made some moves, and despite a poor couple of weeks for various markets, I'm still up a bit, in particularly because of the moves I've made already. The thing is, it's a really bad move to act rashly, as there are tax implications.

That's the real key to investing by the way. It's not about chasing gains or even about trying to perfectly time peaks and valleys. You'll never do that. What you want to do is focus on mitigating losses during down turns.

One thing you never, ever do is put all or even most of your eggs in one basket (gold or otherwise).

It's also why your challenge about the next six months just proves you aren't really understanding investment. There is no single investment I would *ever* pick for *any* six month period and hang my hopes on it. Successful investment is a process, not a set of picks.

ak1971
08-30-2013, 02:14 PM
I can think of many investments (not necessarily stocks) that have a better chance than gold over the short term if there is a significant downturn. For example, a selection of hundreds of reverse ETFs (ETFs that seek to perform inversely to an index, market segment, etc. via shorting and other "betting against the market" strategies -- these are pretty much the go to "make money during a downturn" investment options).

Remember: judging any single investment by it's previous performance is pretty much investment suicide. Gold *might* go up, or it *might* go down. IMHO it's currently still highly over valued. Right now it's something people are investing in for emotional, not practical reasons. The big boys already have started getting out (as we discussed several pages back). They've squeezed what they think they can get out of the bubble, and are taking their profits and running.



I'm watching things very closely and will make more moves when I see it as necessary. I've already made some moves, and despite a poor couple of weeks for various markets, I'm still up a bit, in particularly because of the moves I've made already. The thing is, it's a really bad move to act rashly, as there are tax implications.

That's the real key to investing by the way. It's not about chasing gains or even about trying to perfectly time peaks and valleys. You'll never do that. What you want to do is focus on mitigating losses during down turns.

One thing you never, ever do is put all or even most of your eggs in one basket (gold or otherwise).

It's also why your challenge about the next six months just proves you aren't really understanding investment. There is no single investment I would *ever* pick for *any* six month period and hang my hopes on it. Successful investment is a process, not a set of picks.

excellent post. my gamble pick for the next 6 mo is FNMA been riding it up and down like a cheap whore. if by some wild chance it ever comes out of conservatorship and gets relisted...well a guy can dream

mhgaffney
09-18-2013, 04:52 PM
Canadian Billionaire Predicts End of US Dollar as World's Reserve Currency

Video

Canadian billionaire businessman Ned Goodman predicts the end of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. He predicts the transition out of the U.S. Dollar will become, "...quite ugly."

Lecture at Cambridge House's Toronto Resource Investment Conference 2013 on Thursday, September 12, 2013.

"In my view, the dollar is about to become dethroned as the world's de facto currency. I'll tell you how I came to that conclusion so quickly... the new President of China, Xi Jinping, his first visit on the day of his becoming President, was at his request to meet with Mr. Putin. And he immediately made a deal with Mr. Putin to get all the oil that he needs, which he can buy in Renminbi."

"We're headed to a period of stagflation, maybe serious inflation, but stagflation for sure, and the United States will be losing the privilege to print at its will, the world's reserve currency. A period that's going to be very inflationary, and I can t


http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article36274.htm

ak1971
09-18-2013, 08:55 PM
Canadian Billionaire Predicts End of US Dollar as World's Reserve Currency

Video

Canadian billionaire businessman Ned Goodman predicts the end of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. He predicts the transition out of the U.S. Dollar will become, "...quite ugly."

Lecture at Cambridge House's Toronto Resource Investment Conference 2013 on Thursday, September 12, 2013.

"In my view, the dollar is about to become dethroned as the world's de facto currency. I'll tell you how I came to that conclusion so quickly... the new President of China, Xi Jinping, his first visit on the day of his becoming President, was at his request to meet with Mr. Putin. And he immediately made a deal with Mr. Putin to get all the oil that he needs, which he can buy in Renminbi."

"We're headed to a period of stagflation, maybe serious inflation, but stagflation for sure, and the United States will be losing the privilege to print at its will, the world's reserve currency. A period that's going to be very inflationary, and I can t


http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article36274.htm

shouldnt you be blowing Paul now?

Meck77
09-19-2013, 05:12 AM
Everything is fine! Well except that Obama's new buddy at the treasury says we are on the brink of another financial crisis if obama can't get another blank check...

Another nice dip on the bluff the fed will taper. Nothing but straight up bull ****.

Going to get interesting the next couple of months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us-usa-debt-idUSBRE98G0KD20130917

Fedaykin
09-19-2013, 05:29 AM
Everything is fine! Well except that Obama's new buddy at the treasury says we are on the brink of another financial crisis if obama can't get another blank check...

Another nice dip on the bluff the fed will taper. Nothing but straight up bull ****.

Going to get interesting the next couple of months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us-usa-debt-idUSBRE98G0KD20130917

LMAO Yeah, because defaulting on our debts (i.e. not paying for what we've already spent) is the greatest plan ever to improve our economy!

The GOP isn't just playing with fire, they are treating the demon core like a toy, and we're all going to get burnt if they let it go critical.

Meck77
09-19-2013, 11:22 AM
LMAO Yeah, because defaulting on our debts (i.e. not paying for what we've already spent) is the greatest plan ever to improve our economy!


:oyvey:

Let me make this simple. "Yes we can! Change" is not working.

As a result QE without end is underway. This has negative effects on the paper you keep in the bank. Those with large quantities of paper are at risk of holding paper and need to put it somewhere. If you have enough paper, real estate, business that cash flows, stocks, bonds etc people savy investors turn to gold on dips. See the charts today as the markets call out more BS from the fed.

Buy the dips. Another just happened. You might even consider locking in some of your precious profits and protect some of your wealth/family.

Blame the GOP blame who you want. I don't really care. We will soon be pushing 17 trillion in debt and their is a VERY clear relationship between the US debt and the price of gold/the value of the DXY. The true owners play this game on a huge scale.