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View Full Version : Enough opinion ... cold hard stats on "expert picks"


prunch
09-10-2009, 12:25 AM
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/251517-nfl-preview-experts-predictions-analysis

We may stink it up, we may not

but don't get too down on the expert predictions

tsiguy96
09-10-2009, 12:37 AM
thats some funny ****, and exactly why i dont get into "preseason power rankings" and all that BS.

Baba Booey
09-10-2009, 12:38 AM
"ZOMGGGGG THEY LOST CUTLER...TEH MARSHULL SITUATION"

...is basically all people are basing their predictions on.

A. Marshall will probably play
B. Orton is fine for our system, not to mention he has double the amount of weapons and a better line to boot than he did in Chi-town
C. There is absolutely no way with Nolan and the new additions that our D will be as bad as last year's

That people are saying we will be worse than the Chiefs an Raiders is ****ing hysterical.

tsiguy96
09-10-2009, 12:40 AM
"ZOMGGGGG THEY LOST CUTLER...TEH MARSHULL SITUATION"

...is basically all people are basing their predictions on.

A. Marshall will probably play
B. Orton is fine for our system, not to mention he has double the amount of weapons and a better line to boot than he did in Chi-town
C. There is absolutely no way with Nolan and the new additions that our D will be as bad as last year's

That people are saying we will be worse than the Chiefs an Raiders is ****ing hysterical.

exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.

Baba Booey
09-10-2009, 12:45 AM
exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.

Outside of the QB position we are better everywhere...literally...every position.

tsiguy96
09-10-2009, 12:50 AM
Outside of the QB position we are better everywhere...literally...every position.

only Q-mark i have is the man blocking scheme with o-line. they arent really built for it, but teh last game showed it will be essentially a zone running attack between the 20s...

DBroncos4life
09-10-2009, 12:55 AM
exactly. hell the D has showed signs of being AVERAGE to GOOD this year. orton is obviously still a question mark and he hasnt answered anything yet, but the rest of the team has essentially taken leaps forward.

Got that out of those meaningless pre-season games did ya?

Rock Chalk
09-10-2009, 12:57 AM
That's probably the best "article" Ive ever read on Bleacher Report.

Actually had facts, and the guy did research.

And anytime someone is bashing "experts" Im all for it.

3 of the 7 teams NO ONE Picked are in the AFC West. Thats sad.

tsiguy96
09-10-2009, 01:04 AM
Got that out of those meaningless pre-season games did ya?

when you are getting pressure against first stringers and the D actually looks like it wants to be out there, its an improvement ;)

Popps
09-10-2009, 01:18 AM
The last time expectations were this low for us was definitely pre-internet days, so there's no way to even reference it as far as writers/etc.

As I've said, I love it. Please count this team out... overlook us... assume we'll be garbage.

Hopefully our opponents buy into the same hype.

I just watched some fat **** on NFLN saying the AFC West was a one team division with the remainders challenging Detroit for the #1 overall pick next year.


Keep it up the good work media!

ZONA
09-10-2009, 01:43 AM
it's confirmed..........John Clayton is an "IDIOT"


I love it.

:strong:

watermock
09-10-2009, 02:25 AM
Funny you posted the link but not this:

Consensus - The Steelers, Chargers and Patriots were picked by all 31 experts to make the playoffs - All of them picked San Diego and New England to win the division. I can see that because of the competition, but not one person took a chance with a different team. New England should win the East, but they are one Brady injury away from a lot of trouble and Miami should still be competitive. The Chargers were 5-8 at one point last year. Are they really worthy of consensus, with Norv Turner as the coach, even if any of the other 3 teams winning would be stretch? The consensus teams of last year were the Cowboys and the Patriots, and we saw how well that worked out for them.



Almost Consensus - The Giants and Eagles were picked by 28 experts and the Colts by 27 experts – The Giants play in a tough division and have a lot of offensive questions. The Eagles are going to take a separate article to show why they won’t make the playoffs. The Colts have two major things going against them. Since 1983, only 1 team has made the playoffs 8 years in a row and that was the 49ers from 83-90. Also, 8 times in the last 9 years, the #5 seed in the AFC have not made the playoffs. With a new coach and a questionable defense, the Colts look far from a sure thing.



Popular Picks – The Falcons, Ravens and Titans were picked by 25 experts – The Ravens and Falcons both came up from bad records the previous year with rookie quarterbacks to make the playoffs. In the last 6 years, 15 teams rose up from 6 wins or less to make the playoffs. Only 3 of them returned to the playoffs the next year. Out of the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens, at least two of them are not going back.



The rest of the totals are below, and as you can see a lot of teams are already written off. I guarantee at least 1 of those teams with 0 or 1 or 2 people picking them makes the playoffs. How the experts picked the rest of the lot:



18 experts - Packers

17 experts – Cardinals

12 experts – Seahawks

11 experts – Saints

8 experts – Cowboys and Bears

6 experts – Panthers and Texans

3 experts – 49ers

2 experts – Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (good luck with that)

1 expert – Jets and Redskins

Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs

watermock
09-10-2009, 02:29 AM
Wow..

Considering or line and WR core, and revamped secondary, you would think ONE "expert", would pick the Broncos.

watermock
09-10-2009, 02:32 AM
Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs.

Wow.

5 months and we're bottom feeders.

IN OUR OWN DIVISION!

BroncoMan4ever
09-10-2009, 03:00 AM
i love it, in 4 months we get to serve the sports world a big plate of crow

extralife
09-10-2009, 03:12 AM
The last time expectations were this low for us was definitely pre-internet days, so there's no way to even reference it as far as writers/etc.

As I've said, I love it. Please count this team out... overlook us... assume we'll be garbage.

Hopefully our opponents buy into the same hype.

I just watched some fat **** on NFLN saying the AFC West was a one team division with the remainders challenging Detroit for the #1 overall pick next year.


Keep it up the good work media!

and if you weren't a Broncos fan you'd agree with them.

tsiguy96
09-10-2009, 03:25 AM
and if you weren't a Broncos fan you'd agree with them.

Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly

DBroncos4life
09-10-2009, 03:46 AM
Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly

Other then the fact we play in the worst division in football right now I have seen very little done this off-season that leads me to think that the media is wrong for thinking we are in for a long year. This isn't our first go around with "insert wonder DC with lots of success in the NFL" and poof everything is all better now. We play a lot of NFL teams that more often then not are ready to play good football every Sunday. 6 of them. NE, Balt, Pitt, Indy, NYG, and Philly. Those are not teams I want to see with this much change going on with the team. Still its only 6 games out of 16. The other 4 non division games are winnable, I will give our team that. Then there is the AFC West games which no matter how good or bad a team is those games are never a lock. I'm sticking to my 8-8 prediction because we still have Marshall. He makes our O better and with him I think we can steal a game or two, but Orton needs to play better then he has in preseason, if he doesn't we won't win more then 5.

watermock
09-10-2009, 03:54 AM
Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly

Regardless.

9 picks and plenty of FA money and a new DC as coach...


NONE pick us as a playoff team.

In fact, noone picks any team from the AFC West.

UberBroncoMan
09-10-2009, 04:16 AM
Regardless.

9 picks and plenty of FA money and a new DC as coach...


NONE pick us as a playoff team.

In fact, noone picks any team from the AFC West.

Except the mighty Chargers (everyone said they were in - makes sense when everyone says the other 3 teams won't be) who will yet again not make the Super Bowl.

extralife
09-10-2009, 04:43 AM
Agreing with people who are wrong more often then right is prety silly

well of course they're wrong more often than they're right! ask someone to pick a super bowl winner, and they're picking one team. that means they are not picking 31 other teams. ask them for playoff teams, and they are picking twelve teams, which means they are not picking 20 others. ask them for a division winner, and they are picking one team, which means they are not picking three other teams. odds are they'd be wrong much more often than they'd be right! but they beat those odds by a significant margin fairly consistently, which is about all you can ask.

footstepsfrom#27
09-10-2009, 05:01 AM
The one problem I see with this analysis predicting new playoff teams is that the author failed to distinguish what constitutes "new". I would suggest that a new playoff team should not receive that designation if they made the playoffs 5 years in a row, then skipped a year with an injured quarterback before returning the following season, but if that's how he identified new playoff participants, the results would prove less significant than if he counted only teams returning after a 2 or 3 year absence, etc... He ought to clarify this. I'd also like to know how many of the new teams won divison titles vs. winning wild cards. Suppose a team hovering around 8-8 for a couple years then goes 9-7 and gets in via the wild card. Have they really accomplished much? A won-loss breakdown would be ideal here.

watermock
09-10-2009, 05:08 AM
Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs

that means the bottom has 3 of 4 AFC West teams.

By CONSENSUS.

watermock
09-10-2009, 05:26 AM
The one problem I see with this analysis predicting new playoff teams is that the author failed to distinguish what constitutes "new". I would suggest that a new playoff team should not receive that designation if they made the playoffs 5 years in a row, then skipped a year with an injured quarterback before returning the following season, but if that's how he identified new playoff participants, the results would prove less significant than if he counted only teams returning after a 2 or 3 year absence, etc... He ought to clarify this. I'd also like to know how many of the new teams won divison titles vs. winning wild cards. Suppose a team hovering around 8-8 for a couple years then goes 9-7 and gets in via the wild card. Have they really accomplished much? A won-loss breakdown would be ideal here.


Wow....

Care to put that in an equation?

I would put the 98 Broncos in that mix.

Dedhed
09-10-2009, 07:03 AM
Shocking that John Clayton is in the "Idiots" section, isn't it?

Rock Chalk
09-10-2009, 07:45 AM
shocking that john clayton is in the "idiots" section, isn't it?

no

TheElusiveKyleOrton
09-10-2009, 07:57 AM
.

Wow.

5 months and we're bottom feeders.

IN OUR OWN DIVISION!

http://blogs.babycenter.com/momformation/files/2008/09/crying_baby.jpg

Dukes
09-10-2009, 08:34 AM
.

Wow.

5 months and we're bottom feeders.

IN OUR OWN DIVISION!

Mock, you've become as uplifting as Euthanasia

nickademus
09-10-2009, 08:54 AM
This was a fairly good article and from the bleacher report no less. I would love for some one to explain how we go from manuel and mccree to dawkins and hill and dont improve by at lest two games (I know our schedual is a bitch but this is at least a wash) Orton is a downgrade from Cutler but if he plays the way he did in Chicago we may not loose alot of ground in the W-L column. I loved Jay C but honestly he cost us a few W's with some pretty bad decisions. All the experts point to the change to the 3-4 as being a huge problem for this team but did any of them watch our D last year? We were horrible anyways and IMHO there is only way way to go from the bottom. I feel like 8-8 is not far off and the optimist in me says 9-7 while I dont feel like we are a playoff team we are not the Raiders.

Punisher
09-10-2009, 09:13 AM
I think a lot of people think where the laughing stock of the League, that's fine a lot of people taught Atl and the Dolphins sucked too boy did they prove them wrong.

fontaine
09-10-2009, 09:31 AM
I don't see Denver doing much better defensively, and offensively we've taken a big step back.

6 wins maybe, but they'll definitely be a change at QB later in the season with McDaniel throwing in Simms when Orton goes down in flames.

TonyR
09-10-2009, 10:02 AM
...a lot of people taught Atl and the Dolphins sucked too...

Yep, I wonder what percentage of "experts" predicted that Atlanta, Miami, and Arizona would make the playoffs last year...

colonelbeef
09-10-2009, 10:02 AM
Why the experts are down on the Broncos

1. Orton is terrible

colonelbeef
09-10-2009, 10:04 AM
Yep, I wonder what percentage of "experts" predicted that Atlanta, Miami, and Arizona would make the playoffs last year...

Lots of people had the Cards making the playoffs.

Aside from that, all 3 teams have valid QBs in the above average to former MVP star category, whereas the Broncos do not.

Punisher
09-10-2009, 10:08 AM
Why the experts are down on the Broncos

1. Orton is terrible

Mark my words

Orton will throw for 3,200 yards and 14 TDS

prunch
09-10-2009, 10:10 AM
Must every thread go this way ..... c'mon ... everyone has more than voiced their opinions several times over.

TheReverend
09-10-2009, 10:11 AM
Yep, I wonder what percentage of "experts" predicted that Atlanta, Miami, and Arizona would make the playoffs last year...

Out of curiosity, do you REALLY think any of those teams are viable comparisons?

fontaine
09-10-2009, 10:12 AM
Mark my words

Orton will throw for 3,200 yards and 14 TDS

That's less than one TD a game. Given this offense, WRs etc those would be poor numbers.

fontaine
09-10-2009, 10:15 AM
Must every thread go this way ..... c'mon ... everyone has more than voiced their opinions several times over.

Well, I don't like it either, but get used to it.

The qb position is the most important one in the team and it'll continue to get talked about until this team finds a long term replacement.

Orton is just a stopgap and a poor one at that.

Mountain Bronco
09-10-2009, 10:15 AM
It is highly unlikely the Broncos make the playoffs this year. Simple as that.

Mr.Meanie
09-10-2009, 10:18 AM
That's less than one TD a game. Given this offense, WRs etc those would be poor numbers.

You're right...if he has roughly the same output as Roethlisberger that would be awful. ::)

Mountain Bronco
09-10-2009, 10:18 AM
Lots of people had the Cards making the playoffs.

Aside from that, all 3 teams have valid QBs in the above average to former MVP star category, whereas the Broncos do not.

Pennington to me is very much like Orton. He has a noodle arm, but if he isn't asked to do to much and has solid support, he can be good (not great by any means). That means the D has to be solid, which is a bigger questionmark than Orton in my mind. We have no idea how the D will play. Probably better, but by how much. We need to be a 15th rank D or so to make Orton good because we can't ask him to put up 28 pts a game.

Punisher
09-10-2009, 10:20 AM
That's less than one TD a game. Given this offense, WRs etc those would be poor numbers.

Maybe i jump the gun on that

27 TDS!

fontaine
09-10-2009, 10:22 AM
You're right...if he has roughly the same output as Roethlisberger that would be awful. ::)

You're comparing apples to oranges and I'm pretty sure you know it.

Pitt only needs to score two TDs, a couple of field goals for their defense to do the rest.

Like it or not, because of our weak defense, we need to score that much in just one half.

fontaine
09-10-2009, 10:25 AM
Pennington to me is very much like Orton. He has a noodle arm, but if he isn't asked to do to much and has solid support, he can be good (not great by any means). That means the D has to be solid, which is a bigger questionmark than Orton in my mind. We have no idea how the D will play. Probably better, but by how much. We need to be a 15th rank D or so to make Orton good because we can't ask him to put up 28 pts a game.

Yeah that's the way I see it too.

Except, the disapointing thing is we already went down that road with Plummer for three years. When the D was doing it's job, Plummer delivered. When the D fell apart then Plummer was too ordinary to do anything about it.

It just seems like a rehash of the same tired crap the team rolled out before with Plummer when the D went bad. Only now, the defense is much, much worse.

TheReverend
09-10-2009, 10:27 AM
Maybe i jump the gun on that

27 TDS!

lolz

gunns
09-10-2009, 10:31 AM
"Consensus - The Steelers, Chargers and Patriots were picked by all 31 experts to make the playoffs - All of them picked San Diego and New England to win the division. I can see that because of the competition, but not one person took a chance with a different team. New England should win the East, but they are one Brady injury away from a lot of trouble and Miami should still be competitive. The Chargers were 5-8 at one point last year. Are they really worthy of consensus, with Norv Turner as the coach, even if any of the other 3 teams winning would be stretch? The consensus teams of last year were the Cowboys and the Patriots, and we saw how well that worked out for them."


Hilarious!

Nobody Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs



OMG, how the mighty have fallen! Let's prove them wrong team

TonyR
09-10-2009, 10:32 AM
Out of curiosity, do you REALLY think any of those teams are viable comparisons?

Yes and no, particularly for Atlanta and Miami.

Yes to the extent that Atl and Mia were a mess prior to last season and nobody expected them to be very good last season. And frankly I don't buy the argument that Chad Pennington in one case, and a rookie QB in another, automatically buy you as many wins as they did last season.

No because those teams didn't downgrade at the QB position as this Broncos team has. But again, the QB ugrades were only one factor in the improvements of those teams.

For the record, I don't think the Broncos will make the playoffs this year. But I also don't think this is a bottom 5 team unless things go really, really wrong.

TheReverend
09-10-2009, 10:34 AM
Yes and no, particularly for Atlanta and Miami.

Yes to the extent that Atl and Mia were a mess prior to last season and nobody expected them to be very good last season. And frankly I don't buy the argument that Chad Pennington in one case, and a rookie QB in another, automatically buy you as many wins as they did last season.

No because those teams didn't downgrade at the QB position as this Broncos team has. But again, the QB ugrades were only one factor in the improvements of those teams.

For the record, I don't think the Broncos will make the playoffs this year. But I also don't think this is a bottom 5 team unless things go really, really wrong.

How about going from horrid coaching to good coaching?

We're going from a HoFer to an unknown commodity.

Edit: In fact, McD makes a decent comparison to Cam Cameron...

TonyR
09-10-2009, 10:44 AM
How about going from horrid coaching to good coaching?


Valid point. Sparano and Smith both appear to be very good. But again, who had high expectations for either of these previously unknowns? Let's see how they do this year now that they won't be sneaking up on anybody.

TheReverend
09-10-2009, 10:49 AM
Valid point. Sparano and Smith both appear to be very good. But again, who had high expectations for either of these previously unknowns? Let's see how they do this year now that they won't be sneaking up on anybody.

No, it's less about Sparano and Smith being very good and more about Petrino and Cameron being god awful.

We're not moving from a horrible coaching situation and a mess at QB.

Comparisons to Atlanta or Miami DO. NOT. APPLY.

Archer81
09-10-2009, 11:02 AM
Never know what will happen in a season. We'll see how it goes.


:Broncos:

vindico
09-10-2009, 11:04 AM
Mark my words

Orton will throw for 3,200 yards and 14 TDS

Orton's not going to go out there and shatter the NFL record or anything, but 48 TDs is certainly within the realm of possibility (if BMarsh plays)

footstepsfrom#27
09-10-2009, 11:23 AM
Wow....

Care to put that in an equation?

I would put the 98 Broncos in that mix.
The '98 Broncos were a new playoff team? I think not.

TonyR
09-10-2009, 11:31 AM
Comparisons to Atlanta or Miami DO. NOT. APPLY.

Like I said, they do to the extent that both teams were supposed to be awful last year but weren't. I agree that you can't compare the situations very well other than this.

TheReverend
09-10-2009, 11:32 AM
Like I said, they do to the extent that both teams were supposed to be awful last year but weren't. I agree that you can't compare the situations very well other than this.

But that prediction was lazy carry over from their prior season performance!

We missed the play-offs by a tie-breaker... we're predicted to be awful BECAUSE of actions taken. Those teams were predicted to be awful because journalists are lazy.

TailgateNut
09-10-2009, 11:37 AM
Hilarious!



OMG, how the mighty have fallen! Let's prove them wrong team

The mighty???

kamakazi_kal
09-10-2009, 12:13 PM
Orton's not going to go out there and shatter the NFL record or anything, but 48 TDs is certainly within the realm of possibility (if BMarsh plays)

48TD's ..... thrown by Orton .... really.

DBroncos4life
09-10-2009, 01:37 PM
You're right...if he has roughly the same output as Roethlisberger that would be awful. ::)

yeah I would say we are just about on par with the Steelers so there is no need for great QB play when we got such a great D to rely on.