View Full Version : FF : Will Brandon Marshall be a boom or bust in '09?

Bronco Rob
08-03-2009, 03:35 PM
Will Brandon Marshall be a boom or bust in '09?

Posted Aug. 03, 2009 @ 4:23 p.m.
By The Fantasy Doctor

Doc -

Do you honestly think in a contract year that Brandon Marshall is going to allow his numbers to decrease? A lot of "fantasy experts" are ranking him as low as 24th at WR. I feel this guy will play with a chip on his shoulder and will thrive in the Broncos' new system on routes between 10 and 30 yards. I see him having his best year yet, especially with a guy like Kyle Orton who some say doesn't have a "big arm," which is totally not true throwing him the rock. Orton will thrive in those areas of the field. I see Marshall catching 10-15 TDs. Thoughts? Thanks!


"Well, Ron, it's clear that you're pretty high on Marshall this season. I agree that he's probably one of the league's top wideouts in terms of pure talent, but that doesn't always translate into production, and I simply don't think he'll live up to expectations in 2009.

Of course, in a contract year he's going to do all he can to put up huge numbers and prove he's worthy of big money, but he can only control his stats so much. Even if he's motivated and totally healthy both big question marks after his tumultuous offseason, which included his surgery he can't throw the ball to himself. Like all receivers, Marshall is very dependent on his QB to get him the football at the right place and time, and in '09, that QB will be Orton, not Jay Cutler. The adjustment from a Pro Bowl passer in Cutler to an average one in Orton almost certainly will cause Marshall's numbers to slip.

And to say Orton has a big arm is to go against everything he has displayed as a pro. Last season he averaged a lackluster 6.4 yards per attempt and had just 34 completions of 20-plus yards. Of the top 20 QBs in terms of passing yardage, nobody had a lower YPA and only Eli Manning had fewer than 34 completions of at least 20 yards. Sure, the Bears' system didn't allow Orton to throw downfield much, but it's unlikely that he'll suddenly become a proficient deep passer just because he's on a new team with a different offense.

Although Marshall should continue to pile up plenty of catches and yardage, as he's done in each of the past two years, expecting 10-15 TDs is extreme. His career high in that category is seven, so to anticipate an increase given everything that's going against him this season wouldn't be wise. A more likely scenario would have him finishing with between 6-8 scores.

While I don't think Marshall should be ranked No. 24 among WRs, I also don't see him in the top 10. Somewhere in the 12-15 range is probably where he belongs. As a guy with a huge ceiling but also carrying a lot of risk, Marshall is going to be a boom-or-bust fantasy player in '09."


08-03-2009, 03:49 PM
McDaniels offense is based on getting into the end zone. also with Marshall being in a contract year, he is going to light the scoreboards up this season. 1300 yards and 11 TDs is what I am betting on him this season.

08-03-2009, 03:52 PM
royal may have more receptions, but i think marshall will have more yards...

08-03-2009, 04:39 PM
Just a hunch: I would not be surprised if Gaffney beats out Marshall. You heard it here first. Ha!

08-03-2009, 05:09 PM
BOOM !!!! :strong:

08-03-2009, 05:11 PM
I think Marshall will have fewer catches (around 85-90) with similar yards (better average) and more TD's. If the Patriots offense is anything to go by, that is. Now Royal will become Welker version 2.0 Western Edition.


08-03-2009, 05:22 PM
I'll be picking Eddie as my number two.

08-03-2009, 05:49 PM
Assuming Marshall had made a full recovery, I believe his numbers will be very similar to those of last year. I think this offense will want to spread the ball to more backs coming out of the backfield but I also have to believe that no defense can be as bad as the one that took the field for us last year, so that should translate into at least a little bit better defense this year, which means more offensive possessions resulting in Marshall getting the ball about the same amount of times.

08-03-2009, 06:05 PM
The thing about fantasy football is consistency, especially in the playoffs. Marshall has NEVER been a consistent 10 point scorer, but he is the classic 2-3 games in a row of 20 points against weak ass teams. I Would not take him in the first 2 WR position slots because of that, but he would be a great 3rd WR if you could get him there. Anywhere before that and you risk having 4 point games in the playoffs from a starter....

08-03-2009, 06:29 PM
Yea, someone needs to talk to "Fantasy Doctor" and teach him a little bit about the real world.

In the real world, the top 5 WRs in the NFL last year worked with the following quarterbacks...

1. Matt Schaub
2. Kurt Warner
3. Jake Delhomme
4. Matt Ryan
5. Dan Orlovsky

Only one of those guys is what you might call a WR-helper.

This notion that star WRs are made by their QBs is nonsense. Calvin Johnson had the worst group of slobs in the league throwing the ball to him, and he put up massive numbers. In fact, sometimes a quality QB like P. Manning will end up spreading the ball around more, simply because he can. He doesn't need to lock in on one WR every play.

Fantasy Doctor needs to retire.

WR production isn't purely about the QB. There are a ton of other factors that play into a WR's production. If Marshall didn't have big year in our system, it would likely be more a result of the system than Kyle Orton.