Bronco Rob
08-03-2009, 02:35 PM
Will Brandon Marshall be a boom or bust in '09?
Posted Aug. 03, 2009 @ 4:23 p.m.
By The Fantasy Doctor
Doc -
Do you honestly think in a contract year that Brandon Marshall is going to allow his numbers to decrease? A lot of "fantasy experts" are ranking him as low as 24th at WR. I feel this guy will play with a chip on his shoulder and will thrive in the Broncos' new system on routes between 10 and 30 yards. I see him having his best year yet, especially with a guy like Kyle Orton — who some say doesn't have a "big arm," which is totally not true — throwing him the rock. Orton will thrive in those areas of the field. I see Marshall catching 10-15 TDs. Thoughts? Thanks!
— Ron
"Well, Ron, it's clear that you're pretty high on Marshall this season. I agree that he's probably one of the league's top wideouts in terms of pure talent, but that doesn't always translate into production, and I simply don't think he'll live up to expectations in 2009.
Of course, in a contract year he's going to do all he can to put up huge numbers and prove he's worthy of big money, but he can only control his stats so much. Even if he's motivated and totally healthy — both big question marks after his tumultuous offseason, which included his surgery — he can't throw the ball to himself. Like all receivers, Marshall is very dependent on his QB to get him the football at the right place and time, and in '09, that QB will be Orton, not Jay Cutler. The adjustment from a Pro Bowl passer in Cutler to an average one in Orton almost certainly will cause Marshall's numbers to slip.
And to say Orton has a big arm is to go against everything he has displayed as a pro. Last season he averaged a lackluster 6.4 yards per attempt and had just 34 completions of 20-plus yards. Of the top 20 QBs in terms of passing yardage, nobody had a lower YPA and only Eli Manning had fewer than 34 completions of at least 20 yards. Sure, the Bears' system didn't allow Orton to throw downfield much, but it's unlikely that he'll suddenly become a proficient deep passer just because he's on a new team with a different offense.
Although Marshall should continue to pile up plenty of catches and yardage, as he's done in each of the past two years, expecting 10-15 TDs is extreme. His career high in that category is seven, so to anticipate an increase given everything that's going against him this season wouldn't be wise. A more likely scenario would have him finishing with between 6-8 scores.
While I don't think Marshall should be ranked No. 24 among WRs, I also don't see him in the top 10. Somewhere in the 12-15 range is probably where he belongs. As a guy with a huge ceiling but also carrying a lot of risk, Marshall is going to be a boom-or-bust fantasy player in '09."
:afro:
Posted Aug. 03, 2009 @ 4:23 p.m.
By The Fantasy Doctor
Doc -
Do you honestly think in a contract year that Brandon Marshall is going to allow his numbers to decrease? A lot of "fantasy experts" are ranking him as low as 24th at WR. I feel this guy will play with a chip on his shoulder and will thrive in the Broncos' new system on routes between 10 and 30 yards. I see him having his best year yet, especially with a guy like Kyle Orton — who some say doesn't have a "big arm," which is totally not true — throwing him the rock. Orton will thrive in those areas of the field. I see Marshall catching 10-15 TDs. Thoughts? Thanks!
— Ron
"Well, Ron, it's clear that you're pretty high on Marshall this season. I agree that he's probably one of the league's top wideouts in terms of pure talent, but that doesn't always translate into production, and I simply don't think he'll live up to expectations in 2009.
Of course, in a contract year he's going to do all he can to put up huge numbers and prove he's worthy of big money, but he can only control his stats so much. Even if he's motivated and totally healthy — both big question marks after his tumultuous offseason, which included his surgery — he can't throw the ball to himself. Like all receivers, Marshall is very dependent on his QB to get him the football at the right place and time, and in '09, that QB will be Orton, not Jay Cutler. The adjustment from a Pro Bowl passer in Cutler to an average one in Orton almost certainly will cause Marshall's numbers to slip.
And to say Orton has a big arm is to go against everything he has displayed as a pro. Last season he averaged a lackluster 6.4 yards per attempt and had just 34 completions of 20-plus yards. Of the top 20 QBs in terms of passing yardage, nobody had a lower YPA and only Eli Manning had fewer than 34 completions of at least 20 yards. Sure, the Bears' system didn't allow Orton to throw downfield much, but it's unlikely that he'll suddenly become a proficient deep passer just because he's on a new team with a different offense.
Although Marshall should continue to pile up plenty of catches and yardage, as he's done in each of the past two years, expecting 10-15 TDs is extreme. His career high in that category is seven, so to anticipate an increase given everything that's going against him this season wouldn't be wise. A more likely scenario would have him finishing with between 6-8 scores.
While I don't think Marshall should be ranked No. 24 among WRs, I also don't see him in the top 10. Somewhere in the 12-15 range is probably where he belongs. As a guy with a huge ceiling but also carrying a lot of risk, Marshall is going to be a boom-or-bust fantasy player in '09."
:afro: