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View Full Version : Orton vs Cassel


slyinky
05-06-2009, 04:26 AM
While it is popular to compare Orton to Cutler, we will never know how Jay would have faired under McDaniels offense. We do, however, know how Cassel performed under McDaniels and Matt is also the guy that Josh considered in a trade which brought about McJay gate. By comparing Orton to Cassel, perhaps we can get a better feel for what to expect from our QB this year.

Cassel had a better year throwing the ball than Orton did last year but when considering the different offensive scheme and talent employed by the Pats and Bears, perhaps a closer look at the numbers can shed some light. Matt Cassel was 10th in passer rating while averaging 7.16 Yards Per Attempt which ranked 15th (Cutler's YPA was slightly better at 7.35). Orton, on the other hand, was 25th in passer rating and averaged just 6.39 YPA. With Denver's offensive line and receiving weapons, I think most fans feel comfortable with Orton's ability in the short passing game under McD's offense. It's the downfield passing that raises question marks. Kyle's perceived lack of arm strength and accuracy. His ability to make plays downfield. If you believe that Orton can be as comparably effective to Cassel in the short to intermediate passing game under McD's offense than let's look at the downfield passing.

Passes thrown over 20 yards:

Matt Cassel
8 of 38 for 271 yds 4 TD's 2 Int's--21.1 CMP%

Kyle Orton
18 of 57 for 509 yds 5 TD's 4 Int's-31.6 CMP%

While Cassel had a better TD/INT ratio, Orton was far more accurate. And only 38 passes of more than 20 yards out of 516 total attempts called by Josh tells me that Orton probably won't be throwing the deep ball much anyway. Couple the fact that Cassel only completed 8 passes over 20 yards with the fact that he was also sacked a league leading 47 times (Orton was only sacked 27 times behind an inferior Chicago O-Line compared to Denver's) and I don't see any reason why Orton can't be just as successful as Matt was last year. Maybe even more so.

That being said, Simms will probably wind up as the starter. ???

Odysseus
05-06-2009, 04:56 AM
I cannot find anybody that really knows Orton. Everybody I talked to says that both Cutler and Orton are going to suffer in this trade. Cassel is a mystery more than Orton.

Simms is done unless he regrows a spleen or figures out how to hang his spine again. He should be better than he is but since he was injured has not found his game again.

Everything to me seems to point to Orton doing much better than the average fan expects but until I see how Mc Duck does with this team it's kind of hard to figure what to expect.

I would not want to depend on Orton to "save" any games but I want to know that he won't lose any.

DeuceOfClub
05-06-2009, 06:39 AM
While Orton will probably bring memories of Cutler for Broncos' fans during the season, with no line and no weapons Cassel will bring up memories of Croyle.

Advantage: Orton.

jayman_37
05-06-2009, 07:14 AM
Couple the fact that Cassel only completed 8 passes over 20 yards with the fact that he was also sacked a league leading 47 times (Orton was only sacked 27 times behind an inferior Chicago O-Line compared to Denver's) and I don't see any reason why Orton can't be just as successful as Matt was last year. Maybe even more so.

That being said, Simms will probably wind up as the starter. ???

I don't think you can look at sacks and say it is just the offensive line. I mean it isn't like the Patriots O-line was that horrible. I mean the year before they were considered unbelievable, until the Super Bowl that is. You have to say that part of those sacks fall on Cassell as well. Not really sure about Orton since I didn't watch any bears games.

slyinky
05-06-2009, 08:03 AM
I don't think you can look at sacks and say it is just the offensive line. I mean it isn't like the Patriots O-line was that horrible. I mean the year before they were considered unbelievable, until the Super Bowl that is. You have to say that part of those sacks fall on Cassell as well. Not really sure about Orton since I didn't watch any bears games.
I didn't say that it was just the offensive line. My point is, despite being sacked 47 times (along with the lack of downfield passing and his efficiency in that regard), Cassel put up some very good numbers. Whether the high sack total was due more to Cassel or the offensive line is irrelevant. Leading the league in being sacked is not something that is going to help your passing efficiency as a QB. Orton was, comparatively, only sacked 27 times. Combine the fact that he will probably be sacked even less in Denver with the assumption that his downfield passing ability shouldn't be as big a factor as many believe, Orton putting up similar or better numbers than Cassel did last year is by no means a stretch.

Chris
05-06-2009, 11:05 AM
I cannot find anybody that really knows Orton. Everybody I talked to says that both Cutler and Orton are going to suffer in this trade.

How is Orton going to suffer as a result of this trade? He's got a better line protecting him, better receivers and an O friendly coach now..

Tombstone RJ
05-06-2009, 11:33 AM
I cannot find anybody that really knows Orton. Everybody I talked to says that both Cutler and Orton are going to suffer in this trade. Cassel is a mystery more than Orton.

Simms is done unless he regrows a spleen or figures out how to hang his spine again. He should be better than he is but since he was injured has not found his game again.

Everything to me seems to point to Orton doing much better than the average fan expects but until I see how Mc Duck does with this team it's kind of hard to figure what to expect.

I would not want to depend on Orton to "save" any games but I want to know that he won't lose any.

Orton is kind of an anomaly. He's a guy that's been around for 4 years but has not really done anything great. On the other hand, when I look at what he has accomplished under trying circumstances (and the fact that his teammates speak highly of him) I get the feeling he's a QB with a lot of untapped potential.

My hope is that under McD, he maximizes his potential. Cetainly, McD has proved he can groom a QB for success in his offense. But every QB is a little different and here in lies the rub. Will Orton become the next great QB under McD, or will McD be searching for another QB next year?

vancejohnson82
05-06-2009, 11:57 AM
Simms is done unless he regrows a spleen or figures out how to hang his spine again. He should be better than he is but since he was injured has not found his game again.

Simms hasnt taken a regular season snap since that injury...and Gruden really never liked him....i think its unfair to say he hasnt found his game since the injury

ZONA
05-06-2009, 12:59 PM
How is Orton going to suffer as a result of this trade? He's got a better line protecting him, better receivers and an O friendly coach now..

Exactly. I was reading that part also and going HUH?


It doesn't surprise me that Orton had decent downfield numbers. I'll say this for the 50th time in the last 2 weeks. Most passing plays that go over 25 yards are not necessarily 70 yards in the air passes. They are usually thrown about 20 to 30 yards and the WR racks up the rest on the run. You don't need a cannon to be a good down the field passer. You need to be on time and accurate more then you need to chuck the ball 70 yards into the air. Yeah, we all love the big cannon arms and they are a nice commodity to have, but in the end, doesn't mean you get the job done any more effectively. Peyton has probably the best downfield throws of anybody in the NFL and while he had good arm strength, he doesn't possess a "cannon". Manning is so good because he is almost always right on time with the pass and extremely accurate with his placement.

So can we all just move on past the "cannon" talk and realize some of the greatest QB's to ever play did not have "cannons".

KCStud
05-06-2009, 02:17 PM
While Orton will probably bring memories of Cutler for Broncos' fans during the season, with no line and no weapons Cassel will bring up memories of Croyle.

Advantage: Orton.

Orton may have the better surrounding talent, but he is NOT Cutler and isn't the talent that Cutler is.

Odysseus
05-06-2009, 02:30 PM
How is Orton going to suffer as a result of this trade? He's got a better line protecting him, better receivers and an O friendly coach now..

I am not saying Orton will pass or fail. I am saying I cannot find anyone who is defending Orton on any level. As a Broncos fan I like to take the orange glasses off and take a look at the numbers.

On paper Orton is a mixed bag. All the guys getting a chubby over isolated statistics are lying to themselves. I am looking for something on this guy that matters. I would like to think the Josh McDaniels is a competent coach but I am not convinced his rookie draft mistakes do not extend to rookie coaching mistakes. I think we are going to have to wait and see.

Odysseus
05-06-2009, 02:32 PM
Simms hasnt taken a regular season snap since that injury...and Gruden really never liked him....i think its unfair to say he hasnt found his game since the injury

I think it is unfair that Terrell Davis had his career cut short. I wish Simms all the best but on paper there is nothing on this guy.

Odysseus
05-06-2009, 02:40 PM
Exactly. I was reading that part also and going HUH?


It doesn't surprise me that Orton had decent downfield numbers. I'll say this for the 50th time in the last 2 weeks. Most passing plays that go over 25 yards are not necessarily 70 yards in the air passes. They are usually thrown about 20 to 30 yards and the WR racks up the rest on the run. You don't need a cannon to be a good down the field passer. You need to be on time and accurate more then you need to chuck the ball 70 yards into the air. Yeah, we all love the big cannon arms and they are a nice commodity to have, but in the end, doesn't mean you get the job done any more effectively. Peyton has probably the best downfield throws of anybody in the NFL and while he had good arm strength, he doesn't possess a "cannon". Manning is so good because he is almost always right on time with the pass and extremely accurate with his placement.

So can we all just move on past the "cannon" talk and realize some of the greatest QB's to ever play did not have "cannons".

Agreed. I am not a big fan of long ball. I am one of those fans who thinks that most of the game takes place on the LOS.

When I preach the running attack my focus is taking time off the clock and keeping the defense fresh. We don't have a defense that can stop anybody. We need to wear teams down so a "cannon" is not a top priority. The question on the table is who is Kyle Orton and what is he going to look like playing for the orange and blue. The answer is still I do not know.

kamakazi_kal
05-06-2009, 02:40 PM
Orton may have the better surrounding talent, but he is NOT Cutler and isn't the talent that Cutler is.

wow.....I agree with a chief fan..... this is one jacked up offseason.

Odysseus
05-06-2009, 02:46 PM
Orton is kind of an anomaly. He's a guy that's been around for 4 years but has not really done anything great. On the other hand, when I look at what he has accomplished under trying circumstances (and the fact that his teammates speak highly of him) I get the feeling he's a QB with a lot of untapped potential.

My hope is that under McD, he maximizes his potential. Cetainly, McD has proved he can groom a QB for success in his offense. But every QB is a little different and here in lies the rub. Will Orton become the next great QB under McD, or will McD be searching for another QB next year?

It still comes down to what McD really going to do on offense. Is he going to make rookie coaching mistakes along with rookie drafting mistakes? I would have to assume yes.

This biggest problem with all of the tangential statistics is the simple fact that we all have to wait until this team is unveiled. I am not sure what can be uncovered in spring training reports but it should prove interesting.