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footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:45 AM
Why isn't this dude getting more attention in here? I hate UT too...but I'm trying to get beyond my own bias here...this guy's a freaking beast.

This draft has suspect value in the top 10 picks. Is there a single player there that's a can't miss guy? I don't see one. I do however, see a guy here that has the physical talent to dominate where we need it most, in the pass rush, and when you get right down to it, this guy's the nearest thing in the draft to Shawne Merriman. Physically, if you're looking at pure athletic talent and the potential for stardom, nobody in this draft has what Brian Orakpo has. When Merriman came out he measured 6'4:, 272, put up 25 reps in the BP and ran a 4.64 forty. By contrast, Orakpo goes 6'3 1/2", 263, ran 4.7 and put up 31 reps, plus a 39 1/2" vertical...good enough for 1st, 6th and 1st respectively among the LB's. He tweaked a hamstring and didn't do the other agility drills, however he did perform drills at the Texas pro day and reported blew scouts away.

Close enough.

This guy's a physical freak with a 515 pound BP. He's got 8% body fat and looks like he's cut from granite. He built himself up from 210 pounds as a freshman basketball player when he got to UT...basketball requires some nice agility. He performed on the field also so he's not just a workout warrior. Freshman All American, ...last year with 42 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 30 pressures, and 11.5 sacks (6th in the nation). He won the Lombardi for the country’s best lineman, the Hendricks Award for best defensive end, and The Nagurski Trophy for the nation’s top defensive player. He was 1st team All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year.

Except for the fact that he played where Tim Crowder did...what's not to like? Every 3-4 OLB in the nation is a question mark and most have nowhere near the size, speed and strength this guy does. He's apparently got a great work ethic also. He even did well on the Wonderlic (25)...so there you have it.

If he's there at #12, and we don't do something stupid like taking Sanchez, how could we do better if we're looking for a pass rusher? I'm thinking he might be worth moving up a few spots for. If he's there at 8, and we could move the 12th pick and that 3rd we got from Chicago...why not?

Thoughts?

socalorado
04-23-2009, 08:49 AM
Ask Drek. He will explain the "TEXAS way" to you.
Physical superhuman beast, ABSOLUTELY NO football smarts.

Kaylore
04-23-2009, 08:51 AM
I brought this up a few times in the draft thread: too many Texas haters so all everyone here ignores the good prospects out of spite.

You can make the case that the guy comes from a program that doesn't teach their players technique and instead relies heavily on athleticism, but that's how most of the players in the draft are anyway.

Jens1893
04-23-2009, 08:54 AM
Ask Drek. He will explain the "TEXAS way" to you.
Physical superhuman beast, ABSOLUTELY NO football smarts.

I΄ve seen Med raise similar doubts about UT prospects. And he actually based it on prospects drafted in the past few years.

oubronco
04-23-2009, 08:55 AM
He is a freak specimen but he won't be there at 12 so it doesn't matter

rugbythug
04-23-2009, 08:56 AM
He is a top 5 pick. that is why no one is talking about him.

KillerBronco#76
04-23-2009, 08:59 AM
He would be a merriman type player if we could manage to get him. Needs to develope some more moves though but the physical part is there.

55CrushEm
04-23-2009, 09:00 AM
Remember Mike Mamula ?

Tombstone RJ
04-23-2009, 09:01 AM
Why isn't this dude getting more attention in here? I hate UT too...but I'm trying to get beyond my own bias here...this guy's a freaking beast.

This draft has suspect value in the top 10 picks. Is there a single player there that's a can't miss guy? I don't see one. I do however, see a guy here that has the physical talent to dominate where we need it most, in the pass rush, and when you get right down to it, this guy's the nearest thing in the draft to Shawne Merriman. Physically, if you're looking at pure athletic talent and the potential for stardom, nobody in this draft has what Brian Orakpo has. When Merriman came out he measured 6'4:, 272, put up 25 reps in the BP and ran a 4.64 forty. By contrast, Orakpo goes 6'3 1/2", 263, ran 4.7 and put up 31 reps, plus a 39 1/2" vertical...good enough for 1st, 6th and 1st respectively among the LB's. He tweaked a hamstring and didn't do the other agility drills, however he did perform drills at the Texas pro day and reported blew scouts away.

Close enough.

This guy's a physical freak with a 515 pound BP. He's got 8% body fat and looks like he's cut from granite. He built himself up from 210 pounds as a freshman basketball player when he got to UT...basketball requires some nice agility. He performed on the field also so he's not just a workout warrior. Freshman All American, ...last year with 42 tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 30 pressures, and 11.5 sacks (6th in the nation). He won the Lombardi for the country’s best lineman, the Hendricks Award for best defensive end, and The Nagurski Trophy for the nation’s top defensive player. He was 1st team All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year.

Except for the fact that he played where Tim Crowder did...what's not to like? Every 3-4 OLB in the nation is a question mark and most have nowhere near the size, speed and strength this guy does. He's apparently got a great work ethic also. He even did well on the Wonderlic (25)...so there you have it.

If he's there at #12, and we don't do something stupid like taking Sanchez, how could we do better if we're looking for a pass rusher? I'm thinking he might be worth moving up a few spots for. If he's there at 8, and we could move the 12th pick and that 3rd we got from Chicago...why not?

Thoughts?

http://grfx.cstv.com/schools/tex/graphics/fb-wallpaper/08_wp_orakpo_camp_1280.jpg


UT players: Look like Tarzan, play like Jane.

Old Dude
04-23-2009, 09:08 AM
I've seen a little bit of film on him. Like others have said - - - The highlights are pretty impressive. The lowlights suggest he has very little technique and no clue what he's supposed to be doing.

supermanhr9
04-23-2009, 09:09 AM
exactly.... Look at big bad Vince Young, Selvin Young, Cedric Benson, a case could be made about Ricky Williams, but he was the man before he lost his mind, and the list can go on.

UT players are great college players, but rarley amount to anything because they have no mental skill. In the NFL every guy around you is superhuman, that doesn't cut it anymore, you gotta be smart. Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison didn't succeed because they are gifted like B-Marsh or Randy Moss (size wise) They were smart players who out played their opponents mentally, UT does not teach this.

rugbythug
04-23-2009, 09:11 AM
Remember Mike Mamula ?

Yeah I do-Do you? Mike Mamula would be great as a 3-4 OLB. Mike Mamula was a great player at BC before the combine. Orakpo could have sat out the combine and been a top 10 pick.

Gcver2ver3
04-23-2009, 09:13 AM
i like Orakpo...

many people want to call him the next Vernon Gholston...

2 things about that:

1. He's not Vernon Gholston...

2. Gholston has played 1 yr and people already call him a bust?...Didn't people do the same thing with Mario Williams?...

Tombstone RJ
04-23-2009, 09:19 AM
Mayock broke down some film on Orakpo and when he's in a three technique and all he has to do is rush the QB, he's great. But Mayock showed him getting swallowed up on run plays to his side.

Basically, Mayock thinks the guy has talent, he just doesn't know if he'll transition well to the NFL, esp if he has to drop back into space or play the run to his side.

Broncoman13
04-23-2009, 09:21 AM
Med was actually kind of high on Orakpo. Not the typical UT prospect. And while many people are quick to point out guys like Vince Young and Tim Crowder... they forget about guys like Priest Holmes, Leonard Davis (at OG), and Shaun Rogers. And for every Michael Huff there is a Michael Griffin. Quintten Jammer... Nathan Vasher. Ross seems to be a heck of a player. I'd consider moving up a bit for Orakpo. And, if I was a betting man, I'd bet that Orakpo is high on the Broncos board. Thing is, we need somebody on the other side of him, therefore guys like Cushing are more valuable to us.

bap454
04-23-2009, 09:21 AM
This guy couldnt even beat Crowder out of the starting position at Texas... need I say more.

Gcver2ver3
04-23-2009, 09:22 AM
Mayock broke down some film on Orakpo and when he's in a three technique and all he has to do is rush the QB, he's great. But Mayock showed him getting swallowed up on run plays to his side.

Basically, Mayock thinks the guy has talent, he just doesn't know if he'll transition well to the NFL, esp if he has to drop back into space or play the run to his side.

maybe...but him on one side and doom on the other rushing the passer = very little need to blitz...

i'd be willing to coach him on his other areas if he can help us with that...

baja
04-23-2009, 09:23 AM
get rid of the big ass picture.

55CrushEm
04-23-2009, 09:26 AM
Yeah I do-Do you? Mike Mamula would be great as a 3-4 OLB. Mike Mamula was a great player at BC before the combine. Orakpo could have sat out the combine and been a top 10 pick.

Yes, you are right.....Mamula was great in college....but an enormous bust in the NFL.

That's the point of the discussion....no one is arguing that Orakpo has been great in college......

Beantown Bronco
04-23-2009, 09:26 AM
This guy couldnt even beat Crowder out of the starting position at Texas... need I say more.

Damn. Even his dog felt that one.

epicSocialism4tw
04-23-2009, 09:32 AM
There's alot of USC love here and alot of Texas hate. Anyone's guess as to why that is the case because just as many overhyped athletes bust from USC as anywhere in the nation.

I saw alot of Orakpo here, and he is certainly a game changer. He's the best DE prospect in the draft. He showed up with force and ferocity against the big schools. I think that he has the motivation to make a difference in the NFL...its just a matter of time.

As an Oklahoma fan, I hated Orakpo. That should tell you a little about him.

SonOfLe-loLang
04-23-2009, 09:34 AM
I brought this up a few times in the draft thread: too many Texas haters so all everyone here ignores the good prospects out of spite.

You can make the case that the guy comes from a program that doesn't teach their players technique and instead relies heavily on athleticism, but that's how most of the players in the draft are anyway.

You do the same to USC guys!!!!! Cali hater:) Embrace the love, Kaylore, sunshine is a good thing

baja
04-23-2009, 09:39 AM
Ever notice how every year a hand full of players are hyped by everybody connected with the game of football yet there is always a player or two that gets picked high that was hardly ever mentioned and later we find out he was high on every teams draft board. Seems like these guys are purposely not mentioned.

bap454
04-23-2009, 09:44 AM
There's alot of USC love here and alot of Texas hate. Anyone's guess as to why that is the case because just as many overhyped athletes bust from USC as anywhere in the nation.

I saw alot of Orakpo here, and he is certainly a game changer. He's the best DE prospect in the draft. He showed up with force and ferocity against the big schools. I think that he has the motivation to make a difference in the NFL...its just a matter of time.

As an Oklahoma fan, I hated Orakpo. That should tell you a little about him.

Nice prespective...you are probly right to some degree. I think of REY REY and I think of all the greats like Seau, Mcginnist, Polamaulal, Lott, Rivers....etc. I think Texas and all that comes to mind is Crowder... that still burns.

Tombstone RJ
04-23-2009, 09:50 AM
Ever notice how every year a hand full of players are hyped by everybody connected with the game of football yet there is always a player or two that gets picked high that was hardly ever mentioned and later we find out he was high on every teams draft board. Seems like these guys are purposely not mentioned.

Yah, no one is really talking about Orakpo... makes you wonder if he's the sleeping giant of the draft...

TheDave
04-23-2009, 09:53 AM
Top 11 players taken on Saturday...

QB's - Stafford, Sanchez
OT's - Smith, Monroe, Smith
LB's - Curry
WR's - Crabtree, Macklin
Dline - Raji, Jackson, Orakpo


So unless we trade up... I't not going to matter.

baja
04-23-2009, 09:58 AM
Top 11 players taken on Saturday...

QB's - Stafford, Sanchez
OT's - Smith, Monroes, Smith
LB's - Curry
WR's - Crabtree, Macklin
Dline - Raji, Jackson, Orakpo


So unless we trade up... I't not going to matter.

It's almost a guarantee that one of those players will drop a place or two. We should get a shot at one of those players you mentioned I only hope it is a DL player.

Mogulseeker
04-23-2009, 09:59 AM
Damn. Even his dog felt that one.

Didn't Tom Brady back up Brian Griese at Michigan?

epicSocialism4tw
04-23-2009, 09:59 AM
Nice prespective...you are probly right to some degree. I think of REY REY and I think of all the greats like Seau, Mcginnist, Polamaulal, Lott, Rivers....etc. I think Texas and all that comes to mind is Crowder... that still burns.

Here are some notable Texas alums with modern significance:

Tom Landry
Earl Campbell
Priest Holmes
Casey Hampton
Quentin Jammer
Micheal Griffin
Cedric Griffin
Bryant Westbrook
Nathan Vasher
Chris Simms
Shaun Rogers
Leonard Davis
Justin Blalock

Not everyone makes it in the league from any school, but Texas has put some decent players into the league in recent years. Casey Hampton stands out, as well as Michael Griffin.

Gcver2ver3
04-23-2009, 10:06 AM
Top 11 players taken on Saturday...

QB's - Stafford, Sanchez
OT's - Smith, Monroe, Smith
LB's - Curry
WR's - Crabtree, Macklin
Dline - Raji, Jackson, Orakpo


So unless we trade up... I't not going to matter.

some players that may be drafted before 12th that you didn't include...

Michael Oher - OT...

Aaron Mayben - DE...

Robert Ayers - DE...

Everette Brown - DE...

hopefully your list doesn't play out, but i see your point...trading up may be an option for us to look into...

Tombstone RJ
04-23-2009, 10:09 AM
Here are some notable Texas alums with modern significance:

Tom Landry
Earl Campbell
Priest Holmes
Casey Hampton
Quentin Jammer
Micheal Griffin
Cedric Griffin
Bryant Westbrook
Nathan Vasher
Chris Simms
Shaun Rogers
Leonard Davis
Justin Blalock

Not everyone makes it in the league from any school, but Texas has put some decent players into the league in recent years. Casey Hampton stands out, as well as Michael Griffin.

Tony Brackens wasn't bad either...

Beantown Bronco
04-23-2009, 10:13 AM
Didn't Tom Brady back up Brian Griese at Michigan?

There was a reason for that. Tom Brady was also a completely undeveloped 170 lb scrawny Sophomore or Junior at that point.....and pretty much completely sucked until he had a full year of NFL "training" and coaching. Big difference between counting on a 6th rounder to pan out and taking one in the top 10 or so.

Carmelo15
04-23-2009, 10:14 AM
Top 11 players taken on Saturday...

QB's - Stafford, Sanchez
OT's - Smith, Monroe, Smith
LB's - Curry
WR's - Crabtree, Macklin
Dline - Raji, Jackson, Orakpo


So unless we trade up... I't not going to matter.

I think theres a very good chance Michael Oher goes in the top 11. The 49ers are rumored to like him a lot and the Bills suddenly need a LT with the trade of Jason Peters. Don't be surprised if the Bills take Robert Ayers at 11 either. I wouldn't be surpised to see Malcolm Jenkins slip into that top 11 either. The point is, one of those guys you listed will more than likely fall to 12, possibly two of them.

Old Dude
04-23-2009, 10:15 AM
Top 11 players taken on Saturday...

QB's - Stafford, Sanchez
OT's - Smith, Monroe, Smith
LB's - Curry
WR's - Crabtree, Macklin
Dline - Raji, Jackson, Orakpo


So unless we trade up... I't not going to matter.

That's kind of what I'm hearing from most of the networks and it does seem to be settling in, which sucks because I'd really like to see Jackson here.

I've seen a few where Jenkins or Oher, or Ayers or one of the USC backers slips into the top 10, but I think we're probably looking at one of these guys at 12.

DrFate
04-23-2009, 10:15 AM
Isn't he the guy who Mayock said is boom or bust?

Rohirrim
04-23-2009, 10:19 AM
Here's a nice list of players:
Tom Ashworth - Seattle Seahawks - Offensive Tackle
Justin Bannan - Baltimore Ravens - Defensive Tackle
Tyler Brayton - Oakland Raiders - Defensive End
Chris Brown - Houston Texans - Running Back
Mason Crosby - Green Bay Packers - Kicker
Christian Fauria - Washington Redskins - Tight End
Daniel Graham - Denver Broncos - Tight End
Andre Gurode - Dallas Cowboys - Center
D.J. Hackett - Carolina Panthers - Wide Receiver
Brian Iwuh - Jacksonville Jaguars - Linebacker
Joe Klopfenstein - St. Louis Rams - Tight End
Michael Lewis - San Francisco 49ers - Strong Safety
Chris Naeole - Jacksonville Jaguars - Offensive Guard
Hannibal Navies - San Francisco 49ers - Linebacker
Donald Strickland - San Francisco 49ers - Cornerback
Quinn Sypniewski - Baltimore Ravens - Tight End
Lawrence Vickers - Cleveland Browns - Fullback
Abraham Wright - Miami Dolphins - Linebacker
Terrence Wheatley - New England Patriots - Cornerback
Jordon Dizon - Detroit Lions - Outside
(Oh boy. Anybody can play this game!)

I would like the Broncos to draft Orakpo in a New York minute (;D) but I know it's not going to happen unless they are willing to trade up big time. That's why nobody mentions him. We could launch a bunch of threads talking about Curry in the O&B too, for all the good it will do us.

TheDave
04-23-2009, 10:20 AM
I do think there is a possibility of a run on tackles and Oher gets slotted a head of us. The other possibility is that Someone falls in love with Freeman and is afraid we might take him.

As far as the other DE's mayben, brown, etc.... IMO they are just too similiar to to all the other DE/OLB conversion types. I think most teams willing to wait and see who is still there in the 2nd.

SoonerBronco
04-23-2009, 10:27 AM
Remember Mike Mamula ?


Yeah, but Arakpo actually made plays in college. He is a stud, if we have the chance to get him we should.

barryr
04-23-2009, 10:27 AM
I like Orakpo a lot. I just have figured he'll be gone by the Bronco pick, so haven't spent much time talking about him.

socalorado
04-23-2009, 10:42 AM
There's alot of USC love here and alot of Texas hate. Anyone's guess as to why that is the case because just as many overhyped athletes bust from USC as anywhere in the nation.

I saw alot of Orakpo here, and he is certainly a game changer. He's the best DE prospect in the draft. He showed up with force and ferocity against the big schools. I think that he has the motivation to make a difference in the NFL...its just a matter of time.

As an Oklahoma fan, I hated Orakpo. That should tell you a little about him.

Your fuggin crazy!
Theres alot of HATE for BOTH USC and UT here! LOTS and LOTS!
Trust me, i would LOVE to have MGriffin on DEN!!!
USC just happens to have a bunch of players that are need positions for DEn this year, so they are scrutinized over and over mercilessly until SAT............































WHen DEN drafts at least 2 of em!!! ;D

Old Dude
04-23-2009, 10:46 AM
Buffalo is probably a key. Peters is gone, so they badly need an OT. If they stay stuck at 11 and the other three OT s are gone (Smith x2 and Monroe) they would probably take Oher. But if they trade up, Oher most likely drops out of the top 11.

Maylock is super-high on Ayers and has predicted that in three years, he will be the best defensive player to come out of this draft. But who among the bottom feeders can afford to wait three years?

rugbythug
04-23-2009, 10:47 AM
Yes, you are right.....Mamula was great in college....but an enormous bust in the NFL.

That's the point of the discussion....no one is arguing that Orakpo has been great in college......

Mamula was not as bad as people seemed to think. He average 6.5 Sacks a year and 42 tackles. Better than more than half of the first round DE picked.

Rohirrim
04-23-2009, 10:54 AM
The other point re Orakpo is, does he bring something a whole lot more to the table than what the Broncos already have with Dumervil?

baja
04-23-2009, 11:09 AM
Buffalo is probably a key. Peters is gone, so they badly need an OT. If they stay stuck at 11 and the other three OT s are gone (Smith x2 and Monroe) they would probably take Oher. But if they trade up, Oher most likely drops out of the top 11.

Maylock is super-high on Ayers and has predicted that in three years, he will be the best defensive player to come out of this draft. But who among the bottom feeders can afford to wait three years?

After reading your draft posts I realize draft speculation is exactly like Survivor strategy. ;D

epicSocialism4tw
04-23-2009, 11:13 AM
The other point re Orakpo is, does he bring something a whole lot more to the table than what the Broncos already have with Dumervil?

Orakpo is a 2-way guy. He also has game-changing ability, or at least he showed that regularly in college. His potential is that of a great 2-way DE, not just a situational pass rusher.

Kaylore
04-23-2009, 11:38 AM
You do the same to USC guys!!!!! Cali hater:) Embrace the love, Kaylore, sunshine is a good thing

Oh that's not true. I have no problems with Cushing or Mathews and I said Sanchez is the best QB this year. All I said was Rey-Rey is football dumb and many of their players bust.

SonOfLe-loLang
04-23-2009, 11:44 AM
Oh that's not true. I have no problems with Cushing or Mathews and I said Sanchez is the best QB this year. All I said was Rey-Rey is football dumb and many of their players bust.

But many of their players succeed too...i remember having this convo in another thread and put up a nice list of their successes. Most college football players bust, i dont think thats unique to USC

Rohirrim
04-23-2009, 11:51 AM
But many of their players succeed too...i remember having this convo in another thread and put up a nice list of their successes. Most college football players bust, i dont think thats unique to USC

I was reading somthing about the draft on some NFL site a few days ago that stated that draft success averages about 30%. Not good odds.

Old Dude
04-23-2009, 11:58 AM
After reading your draft posts I realize draft speculation is exactly like Survivor strategy. ;D

Yeah, and like my survivor theories, I'll be wrong on all of this too.

But I'm thinking this. The one major position we probably don't need to fill at this point is OT (knock on wood). So the more of them who go in the first 11picks, the more likely it is that a blue chip player at a needed position will fall to us. Some mock drafts are now showing Oher moving into the top ten or eleven picks. That would be good news.

Drek
04-23-2009, 11:58 AM
Med was actually kind of high on Orakpo. Not the typical UT prospect. And while many people are quick to point out guys like Vince Young and Tim Crowder... they forget about guys like Priest Holmes, Leonard Davis (at OG), and Shaun Rogers. And for every Michael Huff there is a Michael Griffin. Quintten Jammer... Nathan Vasher. Ross seems to be a heck of a player. I'd consider moving up a bit for Orakpo. And, if I was a betting man, I'd bet that Orakpo is high on the Broncos board. Thing is, we need somebody on the other side of him, therefore guys like Cushing are more valuable to us.

Vasher is a solid player, Jammer is solid but was over drafted for what he actually produces on the field. Griffin looks pretty good but his career is still early and he plays safety.

The problem isn't UT, its Mack Brown. He inherited Rogers, Hampton, and Len Davis. Since then what elite player that he's "produced" has lived up to the hype?

How many of the guys who have left that program turned out to be incredibly raw athletic talents who take forever to get it together in the NFL?

The problem I have isn't a UT bias, its a Mack Brown bias. He does a horrible job at actually developing guys to play in the NFL. Thats perfectly fine, he does what he needs to win, but I'm not buying the hype on any Texas prospect because once in the last 7 years one guy lived up to the hype (Griffin) and produced out of over a dozen guys who've busted.

Orakpo looks like a gamer, he's supposed to have a real good motor. Maybe he's going to buck the trend. I won't throw **** through a window if we take him at #12, but I'd much rather see him off the board forcing another value slider down to us. He should be a #12-#18 pick, not a top ten talent we're hoping slides to us.

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 12:00 PM
Ask Drek. He will explain the "TEXAS way" to you.
Physical superhuman beast, ABSOLUTELY NO football smarts.

That's funny, because Drek's avatar is Tim Crowder in a Longhorns uniform.

He doesn't have avatars turned on he told me, but stil ... ::)

baja
04-23-2009, 12:08 PM
Yeah, and like my survivor theories, I'll be wrong on all of this too.

But I'm thinking this. The one major position we probably don't need to fill at this point is OT (knock on wood). So the more of them who go in the first 11picks, the more likely it is that a blue chip player at a needed position will fall to us. Some mock drafts are now showing Oher moving into the top ten or eleven picks. That would be good news.

Exactly lets have a run on O line and Corners

55CrushEm
04-23-2009, 12:43 PM
Well, let's see....not sure why I did this....but here's list of all USC and Texas players taken in the FIRST & SECOND rounds only (didn't want to go any further), since 1994.....just so we can eyeball, and determine who's been a bust or boom player....or somewhere in between

1994
#4 - Willie McGinest, LB - USC (New England)
#57 - Van Malone, DB - Texas (Detroit)

1995
#2 - Tony Boselli, OT - USC (Jacksonville)
#29 - Blake Brokenmeyer, OT - Texas (Carolina)

1996
#1 - Keyshawn Johnson, WR - USC (NY Jets)
#27 - John Michels, OT - USC (Green Bay)
#33 - Tony Brackens, DE - Texas (Jacksonville)
#46 - Israel Ifeanyichukwu, DE - USC (San Fran) - WTF kind of name is that?

1997
#2 - Darrell Russell, DE - USC (Oakland)
#5 - Bryant Westbrook, CB - Texas (Detroit)
#38 - John Allred, TE - USC (Chicago)

1998
#45 - Brian Kelly, DB - USC (Tampa Bay)

1999
#5 - Ricky Williams, RB - Texas (New Orleans)
#9 - Chris Claiborne, LB - USC (Detroit)

2000
#29 - R. Jay Soward, WR - USC (Jacksonville)
#37 - Travis Claridge, OG - USC (Atlanta)

2001
#2 - Leonard Davis, OG - Texas (Arizona)
#19 - Casey Hampton, NT - Texas (Pittsburgh)
#61 - Shaun Rogers, NT - Texas (Detroit) - wow, 2 NT's same year, same school

2002
#4 - Mike Williams, OT - Texas (Detroit)
#5 - Quentin Jammer, CB - Texas (San Diego)

2003
#1 - Carson Palmer, QB - USC (Cincinnati)
#16 - Troy Polamalu, DB - USC (Pittsburgh)

2004
#7 - Roy Williams, WR - Texas (Detroit)
#20 - Kenechi Udeze, DE - USC (Minnesota)
#23 - Marcus Tubbs, DT - Texas (Seattle)
#52 - Jacob Rogers, OT - USC (Dallas)
#62 - Keary Colbert, WR - USC (Carolina)

2005
#4 - Cedric Benson, RB - Texas (Chicago)
#10 - Mike Williams, WR - USC (Detroit)
#15 - Derrick Johnson, LB - Texas (Kansas City)
#31 - Mike Patterson, DT - USC (Philadelphia)
#37 - Shaun Cody, DE - USC (Detroit)
#45 - Lofa Tatupu, LB - USC (Seattle)

2006
#2 - Reggie Bush, RB - USC (New Orleans)
#3 - Vince Young, QB - Texas (Tennessee)
#7 - Michael Huff, SS - Texas (Oakland)
#10 - Matt Leinart, QB - USC (Arizona)
#39 - Winston Justice, OT - USC (Philadelphia)
#41 - Deuce Lutui, OG - USC (Arizona)
#45 - LenDale White, RB - USC (Tennessee)
#48 - Cedric Griffin, CB - Texas (Minnesota)

2007
#19 - Michael Griffin, FS - Texas (Tennessee)
#20 - Aaron Ross, CB - Texas (NY Giants)
#39 - Justin Blalock, OG - Texas (Atlanta)
#45 - Dwayne Jarrett, WR - USC (Carolina)
#51 - Steve Smith, WR - USC (NY Giants)
#56 - Tim Crowder, DE - Texas (Denver)
#59 - Ryan Kalil, C - USC (Carolina)

2008
#7 - Sedrick Ellis, DT - USC (New Orleans)
#9 - Keith Rivers, LB - USC (Cincinnati)
#21 - Sam Baker, OT - USC (Atlanta)
#28 - Lawrence Jackson, DE - USC (Seattle)
#39 - Chilo Rachal, OG - USC (San Fran)
#48 - Fred Davis, TE - USC (Washington)
#53 - Limas Sweed, WR - Texas (Pittsburgh)
#63 - Terrell Thomas, CB - USC (NY Giants)

LonghornBronco
04-23-2009, 12:51 PM
Y'all don't know what you are talking about. You just regurgetate what the talking heads say. Here is an article... now go educate yourself before you embarras yourself...

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=938175


<OBJECT id=rvflash codeBase=http://active.macromedia.com/flash2/cabs/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0 height=60 width=620 classid=clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000>
























<EMBED SRC=http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Study%3A+UT+dominates+the+ Big+12+in+NFL+production+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink= WIDTH=620 HEIGHT=60 SALIGN=lt QUALITY=best SCALE=noborder wmode=transparent ID=rvflash NAME=rvflash BGCOLOR=#FFFFFF allowscriptaccess=always TYPE=application/x-shockwave-flash PLUGINSPAGE=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash></EMBED></OBJECT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></P>Geoff Ketchum
Orangebloods.com Publisher
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>I am not a math geek.
Before we go any further, let's get that out of the way. The origin of the assignment that I created had nothing to do with any personal fascination with mathematical analysis. The truth of the matter is that this entire numbers crunching project began with a question - does Texas produce soft players for the NFL?
We all know the story.
In the first half of this decade, the Texas program was pushed around on the field by Oklahoma and it wasn't until 2004 that the Longhorns truly started to produce like a big-boy national football program.
<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/MACKBROWN250_1128.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Mack Brown\'s players have gone on to staggering success in the NFL.', 'Rivals.com', 1240333393000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=252>http://vmedia.rivals.com/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/MACKBROWN250_1128.JPG</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Mack Brown's players have gone on to staggering success in the NFL.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->Three BCS game wins over the likes of USC, Ohio State and Michigan in the last five seasons, along with a 3-1 record against Oklahoma since 2005 and a national championship, would seem to have dispelled that national myth a long time ago. But we all know that the nation is often slow to catch on to the new talking points.
Meanwhile, we also know that Texas has produced some interesting NFL test study subjects over the years. Ricky Williams is Ricky Williams, and we have known that for the last decade. But, the trials and tribulations of a few guys like Mike Williams, Cedric Benson and Vince Young have caused the program to get an undeserved reputation.
It seems like the large pool of Pro Bowl/All-Pro players around the league that were drafted out of Texas were getting left out of the conversation. Texas might produce a few guys that are "squirrelly," but certainly not soft.
For instance, we can concede that Young and Benson have been a little squirrelly over the years, but would you really call those guys soft? You can say a lot of things about them, but soft isn't something I would call either player.
The bottom line is that I made the decision that I would take a pool of select teams and breakdown the production in the NFL from those schools. In choosing to quickly sample Texas, Oklahoma and USC, I figured my initial results would indicate that all three schools measured very evenly, which would in some way dispel the notion that Texas' NFL player production was somehow inferior to that of its peers around the nation.
I was wrong. Texas was much, much better. Upon initial glance of an unsophisticated analysis that I put together in less than an hour, the Longhorns statistically outclassed the Sooners and Trojans in a major way.
Say what?
That's exactly what I said after finding some really unexpected results from just a little bit of fact-checking. It made me wonder what a full breakdown of the nation's superpowers would produce.
From a full statistical perspective, with as little personal opinion as possible, I decided to find out.
ESTABLISHING GUIDELINES
Overall, there were three very important things that I needed to establish before I did anything else.
- No. 1 – The timeframe …
This was pretty easy for me to settle on. I wanted to do a study from this decade, so the starting point was the 2000 NFL Draft. After considering some of the possible categories that I would be using, I determined that I couldn't use any of the results from the 2007-08 drafts in the study because two years is hardly enough time to define a draft class. That left me with a seven-year window to work with and I felt fairly confident that it would provide a large enough sample size that we could actually draw something from the numbers of the very top programs in the nation.
Also, we did not factor in players that went undrafted, even if they emerged as an elite-level player, because there's no way to invest any kind of bust label on a player that makes the team as an undrafted free agent. With me trying to keep this as simple as possible, I decided to keep this focused on the thousands of drafted players, while also acknowledging in the college notes section if there were other players that warranted mentioning.
- No. 2 – The categories …
It was important to me that I create several levels of discussion if I was going to put the many man-hours into this project that was needed. If we're talking about NFL talent, we need to acknowledge that there are tiers of NFL players that range from the superstars of the sport to the unknown on special teams.
If we're going to grade a school's ability to develop NFL players, we need to establish that there are many degrees of success for each player that's drafted. That's why I created five primary categories in which to slot all of the players in this analysis, and it was important to establish a hard-line criteria for evaluating the merits of each drafted player. First, let's take a look at the categories we created:
Pro Bowl/All-Pros
In order to keep it simple, we put any player that was named as either into this category, which was created in an effort to identify elite-level talents without opinion being part of the discussion. All it took was one Pro Bowl bid or one year with All-Pro honors for a player to end up in this category. While the worth of a Pro Bowl bid is minimal in the real world of the NFL because so many players drop out each year that a huge number of guys ended up receiving bids, that actually proved to be a good thing as it relates to this discussion because it saves me the trouble of having to debate someone about whether a player belongs in the elite category. Hell, I almost made the Pro Bowl one year, so if you want to argue that a player is elite and he hasn't even been named as a Pro Bowler in his career, save your words because it's not a debate.
Large second or third contracts
It's one thing for a high NFL pick to earn millions off of his first deal, but it seems to me one of the best ways to evaluate an NFL player's success in the league is with his second or third contract. The theme here is simple – we're trying to find out what percentage of players coming from each school are emerging as valuable commodities after they've been in the league for a while.
So, what did I decide was a post-draft contract? A minimum of three years on the contract and an average of at least four million dollars per year is what I came up with.
Therefore, a three-year/12 million dollar contract was the starting point for the newly created big contracts category.
I'm not even sure how I settled on these numbers, but they just seemed reasonable to me because it allowed a large range of players to fall into the category.
Also, any player that was hit with a "franchise" or "transition" tag by his parent NFL team was given credit for a big contract. This would seem to be a no-brainer, since most of the contracts that are given to players with the designated titles are well above the minimum bar we established. Let's call this the kicker rule, as I didn't want to punish an elite player at a position in the kicking game because the pay scale for that player was lower than the bar I created. Seriously, this only impacted a few players, but we need to get all of the technical stuff out of the way.
Multi-year starters
This was yet another category that we created and in order for a player to qualify, he needed to start a minimum of eight games in at least two NFL seasons.
If a player started seven games for two straight seasons, I didn't count him. If he started 20 games over the course of four seasons, but never more than eight games in a season, he wasn't counted.
Bottom line – we're trying to determine which schools are creating quality players and in the spirit of what we're really trying to learn, I decided to set the bar high and it definitely eliminated some fringe players that had some starting experience, but nothing that could remotely be considered serious. Again, I felt like the bar was fair because it was applied to every player for every school in the nation.
Multi-year contributors
This is the very next step in our progression of rating players from great to very good to solid. In this situation, any player that played eight or more games in a season for two years was slotted into this category.
By creating this category, we were able to completely cut out fringe players that might have played only a game or two in their NFL careers and created a category for good, solid NFL players.
Busts
It means exactly what you think it means. If a player failed to live up to any of the standards we created for each round, he was labeled a bust. If a player went on to become a quality or even great NFL player after his initial failure with the team that drafted him, it didn't keep him from being listed with a "bust" label.
For instance, Marc Colombo of Boston College was without question a first-round bust by the Chicago Bears, but he also eventually emerged as a solid starter and big-contact recipient from the Dallas Cowboys. There are going to be occasions when players end up being rated as draft busts, but still end up being very good players.
It's no different than if a kid transfers from a program and hits it big on his second stop. In most cases a draft bust label will accurately encapsulate the career of those that achieve such an honor, but it certainly doesn't tell the story of every player. See Marc Colombo.
- No. 3 - Definition of success …
This was the tricky part. In order to evaluate the success or failure of each draft pick, we needed to come up with a set of guidelines that could be used for every player researched. I'll be the first to admit that it's not a perfect system, but I think it effectively accomplished what I was looking to do, which is eliminate as much personal opinion from this process as possible.
Here is how I defined success with each round of the draft:
<!--Start Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/902/787967.jpg', '787967.jpg', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Casey Hampton is one of several Longhorns that have gone on to success in the NFL.', '', 1240333903000, 'Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg', 902, 'Align=Right'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=6 rowSpan=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD><TD width=252>http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/902/787967.jpg</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Casey Hampton is one of several Longhorns that have gone on to success in the NFL.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg Image-->First Round – This one is the only round that carries even a piece of personal opinion or common sense into the equation. There are a couple of things that a first-round player needed to accomplish in order to be considered a success in our eyes. First, the player needed to be a multi-year starter with the team that drafted him. Period.
Unless a player was traded to another team and not released, there's no wiggle room in our evaluation here. Regardless of his position, if he couldn't at least start for a couple of seasons, he wasn't a success as a first round pick and I doubt few will contest that point.
Also, any player that was rewarded with a big second contract from any NFL team was eliminated from all bust consideration. If a player plays well enough to get paid a lot of money, he's almost certainly not a bust. Again, there might be an argument here and there, but rules needed to be in place and this seemed like a good one, especially with first-round picks.
If a first-round pick finished out his first contract with a team and did not receive a second contract of note with either his original team or someone in free agency, then we labeled them as busts.
We'll call this the Mike Williams rule. The former Texas Longhorns offensive lineman was a top-five pick by the Buffalo Bills and he started for a few seasons, but he was eventually released and the lack of continued interest from other NFL teams allowed him to fall into the "bust" category.
When you're a top pick, being a starter isn't enough. Therefore, for the guys that were selected at the top of the draft, starting for a couple of seasons wasn't enough. There needed to be something extra.
Second/Third rounds – In order for a player to escape bust status from these rounds, he needed to start for a minimum of eight games for two years with the team that originally drafted him. If a player was released before he could start two seasons, he was automatically became a bust.
Fourth/Fifth rounds – Any player selected in these rounds needed to start at least eight games for one season and he needed to play in at least eight games for three seasons. If a player was released before he could achieve either, he was automatically became a bust.
Sixth/Seventh rounds – Any player selected in these rounds needed to play in at least eight games for two seasons. If a player was released before he played the majority of the games for two seasons, he was automatically became a bust. There you have it. That's the formula. Now it's time to sort through the data.

SoonerBronco
04-23-2009, 01:39 PM
Y'all don't know what you are talking about. You just regurgetate what the talking heads say. Here is an article... now go educate yourself before you embarras yourself...

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=938175


<OBJECT id=rvflash codeBase=http://active.macromedia.com/flash2/cabs/swflash.cab#version=6,0,0,0 height=60 width=620 classid=clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000>
























<EMBED SRC=http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Study%3A+UT+dominates+the+ Big+12+in+NFL+production+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink= WIDTH=620 HEIGHT=60 SALIGN=lt QUALITY=best SCALE=noborder wmode=transparent ID=rvflash NAME=rvflash BGCOLOR=#FFFFFF allowscriptaccess=always TYPE=application/x-shockwave-flash PLUGINSPAGE=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash></EMBED></OBJECT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></P>Geoff Ketchum
Orangebloods.com Publisher
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>I am not a math geek.
Before we go any further, let's get that out of the way. The origin of the assignment that I created had nothing to do with any personal fascination with mathematical analysis. The truth of the matter is that this entire numbers crunching project began with a question - does Texas produce soft players for the NFL?
We all know the story.
In the first half of this decade, the Texas program was pushed around on the field by Oklahoma and it wasn't until 2004 that the Longhorns truly started to produce like a big-boy national football program.
<!--Start Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/MACKBROWN250_1128.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Mack Brown\'s players have gone on to staggering success in the NFL.', 'Rivals.com', 1240333393000, '', 1014, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=252>http://vmedia.rivals.com/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/MACKBROWN250_1128.JPG</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Mack Brown's players have gone on to staggering success in the NFL.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->Three BCS game wins over the likes of USC, Ohio State and Michigan in the last five seasons, along with a 3-1 record against Oklahoma since 2005 and a national championship, would seem to have dispelled that national myth a long time ago. But we all know that the nation is often slow to catch on to the new talking points.
Meanwhile, we also know that Texas has produced some interesting NFL test study subjects over the years. Ricky Williams is Ricky Williams, and we have known that for the last decade. But, the trials and tribulations of a few guys like Mike Williams, Cedric Benson and Vince Young have caused the program to get an undeserved reputation.
It seems like the large pool of Pro Bowl/All-Pro players around the league that were drafted out of Texas were getting left out of the conversation. Texas might produce a few guys that are "squirrelly," but certainly not soft.
For instance, we can concede that Young and Benson have been a little squirrelly over the years, but would you really call those guys soft? You can say a lot of things about them, but soft isn't something I would call either player.
The bottom line is that I made the decision that I would take a pool of select teams and breakdown the production in the NFL from those schools. In choosing to quickly sample Texas, Oklahoma and USC, I figured my initial results would indicate that all three schools measured very evenly, which would in some way dispel the notion that Texas' NFL player production was somehow inferior to that of its peers around the nation.
I was wrong. Texas was much, much better. Upon initial glance of an unsophisticated analysis that I put together in less than an hour, the Longhorns statistically outclassed the Sooners and Trojans in a major way.
Say what?
That's exactly what I said after finding some really unexpected results from just a little bit of fact-checking. It made me wonder what a full breakdown of the nation's superpowers would produce.
From a full statistical perspective, with as little personal opinion as possible, I decided to find out.
ESTABLISHING GUIDELINES
Overall, there were three very important things that I needed to establish before I did anything else.
- No. 1 – The timeframe …
This was pretty easy for me to settle on. I wanted to do a study from this decade, so the starting point was the 2000 NFL Draft. After considering some of the possible categories that I would be using, I determined that I couldn't use any of the results from the 2007-08 drafts in the study because two years is hardly enough time to define a draft class. That left me with a seven-year window to work with and I felt fairly confident that it would provide a large enough sample size that we could actually draw something from the numbers of the very top programs in the nation.
Also, we did not factor in players that went undrafted, even if they emerged as an elite-level player, because there's no way to invest any kind of bust label on a player that makes the team as an undrafted free agent. With me trying to keep this as simple as possible, I decided to keep this focused on the thousands of drafted players, while also acknowledging in the college notes section if there were other players that warranted mentioning.
- No. 2 – The categories …
It was important to me that I create several levels of discussion if I was going to put the many man-hours into this project that was needed. If we're talking about NFL talent, we need to acknowledge that there are tiers of NFL players that range from the superstars of the sport to the unknown on special teams.
If we're going to grade a school's ability to develop NFL players, we need to establish that there are many degrees of success for each player that's drafted. That's why I created five primary categories in which to slot all of the players in this analysis, and it was important to establish a hard-line criteria for evaluating the merits of each drafted player. First, let's take a look at the categories we created:
Pro Bowl/All-Pros
In order to keep it simple, we put any player that was named as either into this category, which was created in an effort to identify elite-level talents without opinion being part of the discussion. All it took was one Pro Bowl bid or one year with All-Pro honors for a player to end up in this category. While the worth of a Pro Bowl bid is minimal in the real world of the NFL because so many players drop out each year that a huge number of guys ended up receiving bids, that actually proved to be a good thing as it relates to this discussion because it saves me the trouble of having to debate someone about whether a player belongs in the elite category. Hell, I almost made the Pro Bowl one year, so if you want to argue that a player is elite and he hasn't even been named as a Pro Bowler in his career, save your words because it's not a debate.
Large second or third contracts
It's one thing for a high NFL pick to earn millions off of his first deal, but it seems to me one of the best ways to evaluate an NFL player's success in the league is with his second or third contract. The theme here is simple – we're trying to find out what percentage of players coming from each school are emerging as valuable commodities after they've been in the league for a while.
So, what did I decide was a post-draft contract? A minimum of three years on the contract and an average of at least four million dollars per year is what I came up with.
Therefore, a three-year/12 million dollar contract was the starting point for the newly created big contracts category.
I'm not even sure how I settled on these numbers, but they just seemed reasonable to me because it allowed a large range of players to fall into the category.
Also, any player that was hit with a "franchise" or "transition" tag by his parent NFL team was given credit for a big contract. This would seem to be a no-brainer, since most of the contracts that are given to players with the designated titles are well above the minimum bar we established. Let's call this the kicker rule, as I didn't want to punish an elite player at a position in the kicking game because the pay scale for that player was lower than the bar I created. Seriously, this only impacted a few players, but we need to get all of the technical stuff out of the way.
Multi-year starters
This was yet another category that we created and in order for a player to qualify, he needed to start a minimum of eight games in at least two NFL seasons.
If a player started seven games for two straight seasons, I didn't count him. If he started 20 games over the course of four seasons, but never more than eight games in a season, he wasn't counted.
Bottom line – we're trying to determine which schools are creating quality players and in the spirit of what we're really trying to learn, I decided to set the bar high and it definitely eliminated some fringe players that had some starting experience, but nothing that could remotely be considered serious. Again, I felt like the bar was fair because it was applied to every player for every school in the nation.
Multi-year contributors
This is the very next step in our progression of rating players from great to very good to solid. In this situation, any player that played eight or more games in a season for two years was slotted into this category.
By creating this category, we were able to completely cut out fringe players that might have played only a game or two in their NFL careers and created a category for good, solid NFL players.
Busts
It means exactly what you think it means. If a player failed to live up to any of the standards we created for each round, he was labeled a bust. If a player went on to become a quality or even great NFL player after his initial failure with the team that drafted him, it didn't keep him from being listed with a "bust" label.
For instance, Marc Colombo of Boston College was without question a first-round bust by the Chicago Bears, but he also eventually emerged as a solid starter and big-contact recipient from the Dallas Cowboys. There are going to be occasions when players end up being rated as draft busts, but still end up being very good players.
It's no different than if a kid transfers from a program and hits it big on his second stop. In most cases a draft bust label will accurately encapsulate the career of those that achieve such an honor, but it certainly doesn't tell the story of every player. See Marc Colombo.
- No. 3 - Definition of success …
This was the tricky part. In order to evaluate the success or failure of each draft pick, we needed to come up with a set of guidelines that could be used for every player researched. I'll be the first to admit that it's not a perfect system, but I think it effectively accomplished what I was looking to do, which is eliminate as much personal opinion from this process as possible.
Here is how I defined success with each round of the draft:
<!--Start Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/902/787967.jpg', '787967.jpg', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Casey Hampton is one of several Longhorns that have gone on to success in the NFL.', '', 1240333903000, 'Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg', 902, 'Align=Right'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=258 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=6 rowSpan=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD><TD width=252>http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/902/787967.jpg</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/spacer1.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Casey Hampton is one of several Longhorns that have gone on to success in the NFL.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Casey Hampton 250X300.jpg Image-->First Round – This one is the only round that carries even a piece of personal opinion or common sense into the equation. There are a couple of things that a first-round player needed to accomplish in order to be considered a success in our eyes. First, the player needed to be a multi-year starter with the team that drafted him. Period.
Unless a player was traded to another team and not released, there's no wiggle room in our evaluation here. Regardless of his position, if he couldn't at least start for a couple of seasons, he wasn't a success as a first round pick and I doubt few will contest that point.
Also, any player that was rewarded with a big second contract from any NFL team was eliminated from all bust consideration. If a player plays well enough to get paid a lot of money, he's almost certainly not a bust. Again, there might be an argument here and there, but rules needed to be in place and this seemed like a good one, especially with first-round picks.
If a first-round pick finished out his first contract with a team and did not receive a second contract of note with either his original team or someone in free agency, then we labeled them as busts.
We'll call this the Mike Williams rule. The former Texas Longhorns offensive lineman was a top-five pick by the Buffalo Bills and he started for a few seasons, but he was eventually released and the lack of continued interest from other NFL teams allowed him to fall into the "bust" category.
When you're a top pick, being a starter isn't enough. Therefore, for the guys that were selected at the top of the draft, starting for a couple of seasons wasn't enough. There needed to be something extra.
Second/Third rounds – In order for a player to escape bust status from these rounds, he needed to start for a minimum of eight games for two years with the team that originally drafted him. If a player was released before he could start two seasons, he was automatically became a bust.
Fourth/Fifth rounds – Any player selected in these rounds needed to start at least eight games for one season and he needed to play in at least eight games for three seasons. If a player was released before he could achieve either, he was automatically became a bust.
Sixth/Seventh rounds – Any player selected in these rounds needed to play in at least eight games for two seasons. If a player was released before he played the majority of the games for two seasons, he was automatically became a bust. There you have it. That's the formula. Now it's time to sort through the data.

Longhorn...

Anything written by that tard (and homer) will not give any credit to your boys...

Drek
04-23-2009, 01:55 PM
That's funny, because Drek's avatar is Tim Crowder in a Longhorns uniform.

He doesn't have avatars turned on he told me, but stil ... ::)

In my defense, I didn't buy the "UT doesn't make good NFL players" notion until I saw just how raw and unrefined "ready to play" Tim Crowder was and still is.

Also, back when I did have avy's on I was starting a trend of picking a new non-first round rookie every year for my avy. This year's was supposed to be Peyton Hillis. I updated it like three times and for some reason it's never took.

Not a long tradition, started in '06 with Tony Scheffler.

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 02:23 PM
Also, back when I did have avy's on I was starting a trend of picking a new non-first round rookie every year for my avy. This year's was supposed to be Peyton Hillis. I updated it like three times and for some reason it's never took.

Not a long tradition, started in '06 with Tony Scheffler.

That's a pretty long tradition around here ... 3 years going on 4 this weekend?

We have posters younger than that ... Cough!rockchalkCough!


Here's hoping this year will be Ron Brace or Fili Moala or Dorrell Scott ^5

Drek
04-23-2009, 02:30 PM
That's a pretty long tradition around here ... 3 years going on 4 this weekend?

We have posters younger than that ... Cough!rockchalkCough!


Here's hoping this year will be Ron Brace or Fili Moala or Dorrell Scott ^5

Depends, I might break the no first rounder stipulation if we get Curry. :D

But I'm probably going to aim later round than usual this year and probably try to avoid the defensive front seven. Its all about picking a guy who isn't getting the pub around the board that they should probably deserve.

When I chose Scheffler it was because so many here that year where flipping out that we passed on Leonard Pope and took him. I wondered that myself initially, but after reading up on the guy I was sold on him.

Then I went with Crowder because he didn't get as much pub as Moss (for obvious reasons) and hell, we only made four picks. I wanted to go Ryan Harris, but didn't want the ND homerism to show quite that strongly.

Last year I said all off-season that if we gave Hillis the chance to tote the rock he might never give the job back, and I still believe that.

I'm hoping for an interesting OL prospect (Alex Fletcher?) or a later round 5-tech that people will dismiss (Zach Potter, Will Johnson, Rulon Davis). But if we draft Todd Boeckman I'd have to go with him since I said months ago that he seemed like a McDaniels' QB.

cmhargrove
04-23-2009, 02:48 PM
The other point re Orakpo is, does he bring something a whole lot more to the table than what the Broncos already have with Dumervil?

Somewhere deep in my heart I remember Dumervil being an extremely quick 13 sack D-end who has to be chip blocked by the RB (double teamed) on a great deal of plays.

I watched his interview the other day - Elvis looks lean, I mean really lean. I think he was presented his role a long time ago and has been working out like a mofo and as he said - he has been eating very healthy. I think Elvis is a special player, and is getting ready to make a successful transition to OLB.

We need 3-4 DE's and NT's, not really Orakpo. If he drops to 12 and Nolan likes him, so be it. But, we will have our choice of OLB's. Given my choice, I would take Larry English in a New York minute over Orakpo. I like his football smarts, his leadership, his open field ability, and I think he just plays harder. Plus he was the "starter" for three years where he got a lot more experience.

Just my opinion. Skip Orakpo, take English at 18. Better football player, more upside.

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 04:12 PM
Last year I said all off-season that if we gave Hillis the chance to tote the rock he might never give the job back, and I still believe that.

My thought exactly. I love his vision ... he never loses yards because he's looking ahead even before he gest the ball. I have no problem with 20 carries a game for him, depending on performance.

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 04:16 PM
Somewhere deep in my heart I remember Dumervil being an extremely quick 13 sack D-end who has to be chip blocked by the RB (double teamed) on a great deal of plays.

I watched his interview the other day - Elvis looks lean, I mean really lean. I think he was presented his role a long time ago and has been working out like a mofo and as he said - he has been eating very healthy. I think Elvis is a special player, and is getting ready to make a successful transition to OLB.

Speaking of Elvis ... what do you think of Phillip Hunt? He put up sick playmaker numbers ... never missed a game .... and might not get drafted cause he's a DE/LB tweener.

Reminds me of Elvis: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=2391276#post2391276

Drek, hargrove ... you guys like Hunt? Could be a late gem.

Drek
04-23-2009, 04:55 PM
Speaking of Elvis ... what do you think of Phillip Hunt? He put up sick playmaker numbers ... never missed a game .... and might not get drafted cause he's a DE/LB tweener.

Reminds me of Elvis: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=2391276#post2391276

Drek, hargrove ... you guys like Hunt? Could be a late gem.

I wouldn't compare him to Dumervil. Elvis had 50% more sacks in his best season while playing at Louisville versus Hunt at Houston. Legitimate competition gap there, and the productivity gap is massive.

But he shouldn't be undrafted. I'd be very excited to see him as a late round pickup for the Broncos in fact. His measured speed, strength, and size are mediocre at best, but he showed some explosiveness with his vertical and broad jump.

What I like most about him is that he played OLB as his primary position in college. A lot of these 3-4 "tweeners" are collegiate DEs who don't know much about playing standing up. Those guys scare me because they've got a lot to learn before you can trust them on the field in any down or yardage situation.

From the 5th on I'd have no problems with his selection. You could probably maybe even sell me on the 4th. Its stupid that someone so productive wasn't invited to the combine. Looks like an immediate special teams contributor out of the gate and if he shows some physical maturation (getting stronger, faster, and/or bigger) in the pros he could legitimately look to find a home in a lot of different roles in the 3-4.

FireFly
04-23-2009, 05:15 PM
Yah, no one is really talking about Orakpo... makes you wonder if he's the sleeping giant of the draft...

No one outside of the top 10 is talking about him anyhow. There's no need, because he'll be gone by 11.

If we got him at 12 I'd be over the moon. Nervous as hell, because the guy does have a huge Boom or Bust factor. I believe Mayock said something like on of the highest ceilings in the draft, but also a VERY low floor. But I'd still be happy with the pick!

jutang
04-23-2009, 05:26 PM
With all the misinformation out there, I'm not really sure where he gets picked. A month ago, he was projected to be in the top 10, but with Jackson moving up the charts someone has to drop. I would be thrilled if he drops to the Broncos. He has boom bust material, but so does Raji and I feel Orakpo has a higher ceiling.

epicSocialism4tw
04-23-2009, 05:40 PM
Vasher is a solid player, Jammer is solid but was over drafted for what he actually produces on the field. Griffin looks pretty good but his career is still early and he plays safety.

The problem isn't UT, its Mack Brown. He inherited Rogers, Hampton, and Len Davis. Since then what elite player that he's "produced" has lived up to the hype?

How many of the guys who have left that program turned out to be incredibly raw athletic talents who take forever to get it together in the NFL?

The problem I have isn't a UT bias, its a Mack Brown bias. He does a horrible job at actually developing guys to play in the NFL. Thats perfectly fine, he does what he needs to win, but I'm not buying the hype on any Texas prospect because once in the last 7 years one guy lived up to the hype (Griffin) and produced out of over a dozen guys who've busted.

Orakpo looks like a gamer, he's supposed to have a real good motor. Maybe he's going to buck the trend. I won't throw **** through a window if we take him at #12, but I'd much rather see him off the board forcing another value slider down to us. He should be a #12-#18 pick, not a top ten talent we're hoping slides to us.

You really could make just about all of those points about any college out there. We have our very own Florida Gator super bust in Jarvis Moss, and you could say that just about every QB and WR to ever come out of there has been a bust.

Not every player hits. I dont think that you can make the generalization that a higher percentage of Texas players misses per draft slot than any other school. That would take a pretty complicated analysis.

Pete Carroll's USC might rank pretty high on the bust-o-meter with Reggie Bush, Leinart, and Mike Williams leading the way in bustage recently.

Generalizing it as a Texas problem doesnt make sense. Especially when you have alot of players per sample from that school and the likelyhood of them all becoming pro-bowlers is slim. Same can be said for the other power schools like Oklahoma, Florida, USC, etc.

TheChamp24
04-23-2009, 05:58 PM
Y'all don't know what you are talking about. You just regurgetate what the talking heads say. Here is an article... now go educate yourself before you embarras yourself...

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=938175


lol, seriously? You are going to back up what everybody is saying with some article on a TEXAS LONGHORN site, written by a Longhorn fan who obviously has bias?

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 06:07 PM
The problem isn't UT, its Mack Brown. He inherited Rogers, Hampton, and Len Davis. Since then what elite player that he's "produced" has lived up to the hype?

How many of the guys who have left that program turned out to be incredibly raw athletic talents who take forever to get it together in the NFL?

The problem I have isn't a UT bias, its a Mack Brown bias. He does a horrible job at actually developing guys to play in the NFL.

I agree ... pass on Orakpo. And far be it from me to defend the Mack Brown, but what you are accurately descibing, the underachievment of UT players in the League, is really a compliment to Brown. His job is not to develop NFL talent, it's to win Big XII games and Bowl games. He does that pretty well.

BroncoBuff
04-23-2009, 06:18 PM
You really could make just about all of those points about any college out there.

....

Generalizing it as a Texas problem doesnt make sense.

The U is an exception ... they have a remarkable success rate for guys in the League, even later round guys like Chris Myers, Frank Gore, Najeh Davenport.

Miami's NFL player-prodution rate is WAY above Texas's, even though the Longhorns have won more games this past decade. That's a tribute to Mack Brown I think.

ohiobronco2
04-23-2009, 06:32 PM
You can't really bash USC because they have actually produced decent D talent. Now their offensive players have not lived up to the hype. Anyways, I didn't see any Texas games, except their game vs OSU. Orakpo played against Boone who was beat like a drum against Florida (Moss, Harvey). I didn't see many impact plays out of him. I think he got to the QB twice in that game if I remember correctly. I'm sure they were double teaming him and maybe that is why I remember Meltons name being called so often, but I wasn't terribly impressed in that game. Hel* maybe it was the running of Wells often and the mobility of Pryor that kept him from racking up sacks.

Competition(Ranking on sacks given up in NCAA)-Number of sacks in game

Utep(88) -2 sacks
Rice (83)-2 sacks
Arkansas (118)-2 sacks
Oklahoma (3)-2 sacks
Oklahoma St (17)-1 sack
Texas A&M (115)-1 sack
OSU (83)-1 sack

He also had 15 QB hurries and 4 forced fumbles.

Drek
04-23-2009, 07:46 PM
You really could make just about all of those points about any college out there. We have our very own Florida Gator super bust in Jarvis Moss, and you could say that just about every QB and WR to ever come out of there has been a bust.

Not every player hits. I dont think that you can make the generalization that a higher percentage of Texas players misses per draft slot than any other school. That would take a pretty complicated analysis.

Pete Carroll's USC might rank pretty high on the bust-o-meter with Reggie Bush, Leinart, and Mike Williams leading the way in bustage recently.

Generalizing it as a Texas problem doesnt make sense. Especially when you have alot of players per sample from that school and the likelyhood of them all becoming pro-bowlers is slim. Same can be said for the other power schools like Oklahoma, Florida, USC, etc.

Should Mike Williams even count? He left USC for over a year before being drafted.

Also, while Bush hasn't lived up to the #2 overall hype he's been a more productive player than any UT offensive prospect (Roy Williams being the most noteworthy).

Lendale White, Carson Palmer, and several very solid OLs have come from USC.

Are USC guys universally overhyped? Sure are and I'm about as willing to take Orakpo at #12 as any of the USC LBs in this class. But at least they have the fundamentals of an NFL level system when they come out of college.

I agree ... pass on Orakpo. And far be it from me to defend the Mack Brown, but what you are accurately descibing, the underachievment of UT players in the League, is really a compliment to Brown. His job is not to develop NFL talent, it's to win Big XII games and Bowl games. He does that pretty well.

Exactly, its not an attack on Mack Brown. They guy leads an incredibly successful program. But he doesn't do it through superior fundamentals development, not by a long shot. He does it by superior recruiting and putting all that athletic talent in positions to let them shine.

And every school has their history of busts. The important thing as it pertains to UT however is just how often guys are considered elite prospects and bust from their program. The same applies to USC, though for different reasons, and other big programs. Its the national media hype, but in UT's case its exacerbated by player's raw undeveloped athletic talent and at USC its exacerbated because everyone talks about how Carroll's "33rd franchise" has them ready for the NFL from day one, which simply isn't true.

Its analyst self hype and double speak, and too often people overlook big problems with a player because of it. Not any different from when an analyst will literally say in the same segment that a team should take best player available all the time, but then lauds the Patriots, who instead take the best system fit at a need position all the time, as a symbol of drafting excellence.

Orakpo might be a stud, but I wouldn't put him any higher up the board than Everette Brown. They should both be early to late teens selections. Neither one is even remotely close to the player that Aaron Curry is. The gap there is bigger than the gap between Orakpo/Brown and guys like Barwin and Sintim.

Bronco Boy
04-23-2009, 08:04 PM
Maybin's a better prospect than Orakpo, IMO.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:40 PM
UT players: Look like Tarzan, play like Jane.
Except that he didn't play like Jane. All American...Big 12 Player of the Year...team MVP...you make no sense. Then again...you rarely do.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:43 PM
exactly.... Look at big bad Vince Young, Selvin Young, Cedric Benson, a case could be made about Ricky Williams, but he was the man before he lost his mind, and the list can go on.

UT players are great college players, but rarley amount to anything because they have no mental skill. In the NFL every guy around you is superhuman, that doesn't cut it anymore, you gotta be smart. Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison didn't succeed because they are gifted like B-Marsh or Randy Moss (size wise) They were smart players who out played their opponents mentally, UT does not teach this.
Perhaps...I think that's a stretch to indict the entire university due to some notable busts. This guy is Nigerian...I'm not sure how long he's been here, but he may be a different kind of player than you imagine. Keep in mind...he came in as a basketball player. He built himself up from 212 pounds in the weight room so he's obviously got a great work ethic. He scored a 28 on the Wonderlic so he's not a stupid guy. I think the jury's out on whether he's stupid or not just because he went to UT.

Triplelefthook
04-23-2009, 08:48 PM
How does Everette Brown differ from Jarvis Moss? Both guys seem drastically undersized for DE's. I havent seen much of Brown but would he be a good pick for Denver at #18?

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:48 PM
Mayock broke down some film on Orakpo and when he's in a three technique and all he has to do is rush the QB, he's great. But Mayock showed him getting swallowed up on run plays to his side.
Basically, Mayock thinks the guy has talent, he just doesn't know if he'll transition well to the NFL, esp if he has to drop back into space or play the run to his side.
So he can't play the run...interesting. Here's a stat that suggests otherwise: http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=33734&draftyear=2009&genpos=de On 38 running plays he made plays on, the opposing RB netted a total of 1 yard...a .026 ypc average. That doesn't seem to support what you're saying. Of course now you'll tell me he rarely made the tackle...you can do so if you actualy broke down game film over his entire career...doubt that's the case.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:55 PM
This guy couldnt even beat Crowder out of the starting position at Texas... need I say more.
Yes...you do.

Crowder was a senior in 2006 and Orakpo didn't back him up he split time with returning starter Brian Robison on the other side. He weighed 248 at that time.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 08:57 PM
get rid of the big ass picture.
Done. It was annoying me too.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 09:08 PM
The other point re Orakpo is, does he bring something a whole lot more to the table than what the Broncos already have with Dumervil?
Ah...now we're getting somewhere. That depends on whether you think Elvis can play the OLB or not. About a year ago I suggested he get a shot at that and was laughed to scorn in here. Multiple posters said it was a stupid idea, that he was to slow, to inflexible, played like crap against the run, couldn't react with instinct...etc...etc...but NOW that the boy genius is trying him out there...

Crickets...

Now I'm the one asking the question. Can Elvis do it? That's the question with every "tweener" isn't it? This guys run in the 4.65 range before and seems to be extremely active against the run in spite of suggestons to the contrary. What I'm wondering is if they could BOTH be in there at the same time. Dallas started Greg Ellis out there opposite Ware...he's no coverage guy at all. They seemed to function OK with it. Maybe Elvis moves back to 3rd down situational rush end...who knows? All I'm sure of right now is that we do need pass rushers.

footstepsfrom#27
04-23-2009, 09:24 PM
How does Everette Brown differ from Jarvis Moss? Both guys seem drastically undersized for DE's. I havent seen much of Brown but would he be a good pick for Denver at #18?
Brown has vastly superior upper body strength to Moss. I think he's pressed about 480. Jarvis of course has had the developmental delay due to his illness, but that's not helping him now either. He's just a lean body type of player. I think somebody might give brown a shot at 4-3 DE though.

cmhargrove
04-23-2009, 09:53 PM
Speaking of Elvis ... what do you think of Phillip Hunt? He put up sick playmaker numbers ... never missed a game .... and might not get drafted cause he's a DE/LB tweener.

Reminds me of Elvis: http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=2391276#post2391276

Drek, hargrove ... you guys like Hunt? Could be a late gem.

I don't know much about Hunt, so I can't comment, but the Broncos have already taken a look at Cody Brown DE from UConn. So, don't be surprised if you hear his name in the lower rounds.

Drek
04-24-2009, 05:33 AM
How does Everette Brown differ from Jarvis Moss? Both guys seem drastically undersized for DE's. I havent seen much of Brown but would he be a good pick for Denver at #18?

Brown measured in at 6'2", 256 (thats about the same weight as Moss but about 5 inches shorter), he's also a much stronger player.

More importantly, we're now going to be a 3-4 base defense so that changes everything. Also, Brown has experience at both DE and OLB plus he actually has some pass rush fundamentals.

He isn't a can't miss prospect by any stretch, but I like him better than I like Kamereon Wimbley who went pretty high.

Ah...now we're getting somewhere. That depends on whether you think Elvis can play the OLB or not. About a year ago I suggested he get a shot at that and was laughed to scorn in here. Multiple posters said it was a stupid idea, that he was to slow, to inflexible, played like crap against the run, couldn't react with instinct...etc...etc...but NOW that the boy genius is trying him out there...

Crickets...
Yes, because OLB in a 4-3 (what we were playing last year) is identical to OLB in a 3-4 or hybrid 3-4.

Now I'm the one asking the question. Can Elvis do it? That's the question with every "tweener" isn't it? This guys run in the 4.65 range before and seems to be extremely active against the run in spite of suggestons to the contrary. What I'm wondering is if they could BOTH be in there at the same time. Dallas started Greg Ellis out there opposite Ware...he's no coverage guy at all. They seemed to function OK with it. Maybe Elvis moves back to 3rd down situational rush end...who knows? All I'm sure of right now is that we do need pass rushers.

Dallas' 3-4 isn't what we'll be running either FYI, they basically run a 5-2. We'll employ more of a Patriots and Ravens style D where the WOLB will be a pretty straight up pass rusher and the SOLB will need to be a jack of all trades type who can run but also cover a TE down field if asked.

I think Dumervil has some good potential as a 3-4 OLB at this point. I questioned it up until recently because coming out of college he was rather outspoken on preferring 4-3 DE. Now he seems excited about the role that Nolan has planned for him and for Dumervil that's half the battle, he's too solid a player fundamentally to not find a way to be productive in a role he embraces.

As for Doom's 40 time, didn't he run that on a bad ankle? I recall Marcus Vick stomping on his ankle in the last game of the season or something, and it lingering through the combine.

footstepsfrom#27
04-24-2009, 06:11 AM
Yes, because OLB in a 4-3 (what we were playing last year) is identical to OLB in a 3-4 or hybrid 3-4.
Obviously not, but you're still talking about a guy who has to operate in space at times, and on top of that it was his suppsosed inability to play the run that was a major factor in people suggesting that not only was he not an OLB, he wasn't even a starting DE but a situational pass rush specialist instead. Magically he's now fully ready to assume the role most thought he couldn't a short while ago. He's gone from starter by default in the position he was familar with to the projected starter in a positin he's not familar with and the sole reason is the fact that we have a new coach. If that argument for the capabilities of Nolan is advanced for Elvis, I can advance it for considering Moss for a while longer.
Dallas' 3-4 isn't what we'll be running either FYI, they basically run a 5-2. We'll employ more of a Patriots and Ravens style D where the WOLB will be a pretty straight up pass rusher and the SOLB will need to be a jack of all trades type who can run but also cover a TE down field if asked.
I"ve seen Greg Ellis dropping in pass coverage regardless of what you call it. It wasn't pretty.
I think Dumervil has some good potential as a 3-4 OLB at this point. I questioned it up until recently because coming out of college he was rather outspoken on preferring 4-3 DE. Now he seems excited about the role that Nolan has planned for him and for Dumervil that's half the battle, he's too solid a player fundamentally to not find a way to be productive in a role he embraces.
So Elvis falling off dramatically against top competition isn't a concern? Keep in mind I suggested to begin with that he should get a try at the OLB spot, so I think he can handle it. None the less...do you not see a risk factor here just like you would with any of the college hybrids? Essentially my primary argument for considering Orakpo is that the athleticism of the player should be the most important consideration. ANY player picked for this role is going to have a transitional experience to go through, just as Orakpo would also. Most of the arguments presented on this thread are questionable and appear to be lacking in factual basis.

It's a crapshoot...I think you gamble on the best talent. Unless a guy's either got rotten character, a history of injury, is a complete nitwit or has some other serious issue, I prefer a guy whose both a physical freak and has also produced on the field to one lacking either of those qualities.

uplink
04-24-2009, 06:13 AM
Check out this recent mock from PFT with Orakpo falling all the way to #23!
I do think this particular mock may be right in the top 5-6 picks though.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/24/the-second-mr-x-mock-draft/

footstepsfrom#27
04-24-2009, 06:18 AM
Check out this recent mock from PFT with Orakpo falling all the way to #23!
I do think this particular mock may be right in the top 5-6 picks though.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/24/the-second-mr-x-mock-draft/
Darrius Heyward-Bey at 7 to the Faid? Hakeem Nix at 17? I can't see either of those happening and Orakpo at 23 is ridiculous.

Drek
04-24-2009, 06:27 AM
Obviously not, but you're still talking about a guy who has to operate in space at times, and on top of that it was his suppsosed inability to play the run that was a major factor in people suggesting that not only was he not an OLB, he wasn't even a starting DE but a situational pass rush specialist instead. Magically he's now fully ready to assume the role most thought he couldn't a short while ago. He's gone from starter by default in the position he was familar with to the projected starter in a positin he's not familar with and the sole reason is the fact that we have a new coach. If that argument for the capabilities of Nolan is advanced for Elvis, I can advance it for considering Moss for a while longer.
The change in what we ask OLBs to do and the improvement in coaching staff quality should in tandem make a transition more viable for Dumervil, Moss, and Crowder.

As for Dumervil's weakness against the run, its not a recognition/reaction problem. He's just too light and short to shift off a 6'5", 300 pound LT who knows its a running down. So moving back to OLB will probably only help him there.

I'm not crazy in love with Doom as our starting WOLB. But I think he's a better option there than anyone else in our front four besides Davis at SILB and DJ at WILB, and I wouldn't be surprised if DJ plays SOLB instead because we don't have another good option for that job (Orakpo can't do it).


I"ve seen Greg Ellis dropping in pass coverage regardless of what you call it. It wasn't pretty.
He does some yes, but then in a 4-3 we dropped Ekuban in coverage several times back when Coyer was the DC. Guys try different things to throw opposing offenses a change-up. But Ellis and Ware spend most of their time lookin to attack the passer, whereas for us the SOLB will look to rush only a little more than our ILBs will, while the WOLB will be a nearly every down rusher.

So Elvis falling off dramatically against top competition isn't a concern? Keep in mind I suggested to begin with that he should get a try at the OLB spot, so I think he can handle it. None the less...do you not see a risk factor here just like you would with any of the college hybrids? Essentially my primary argument for considering Orakpo is that the athleticism of the player should be the most important consideration. ANY player picked for this role is going to have a transitional experience to go through, just as Orakpo would also. Most of the arguments presented on this thread are questionable and appear to be lacking in factual basis.
Dumervil is a question to succeed, sure. But he's more likely to do so than what we're penciling into most of our front seven right now, and so the debate of whether Orakpo is a better prospect than Dumervil at WOLB is rather moot. There are four or five other holes of equal or greater importance on the D, so we don't need to overpick a guy who should probably be an early teens to late teens pick instead of taking a guy who actually belongs at or maybe even higher than #12.

We also need to start with guys who are solid contributors. I'm not a huge Tyson Jackson fan, I think to take a 5-tech that high you'd ideally want him to be a difference maker like Richard Seymour. But for the Broncos, as they stand right now, there is a lot to be said for taking a guy like Jackson, who will probably never be great but should be at least above average from day one.

Its also why when talking about OLBs I'd prefer to see us lean towards a guy like Clint Sintim in the 2nd, over Orakpo or Brown in the first. Sintim isn't nearly the physical specimen, but he's gotten it done in a 3-4 and is a safe pick. We need to put down a foundation of solid contributors while we see if Dumervil, DJ, Woodyard, Larsen, Thomas, Powell, etc. even belong on the roster. Then in 2010 we can look for difference makers what will hopefully be a better top 15 talent pool in the draft.

footstepsfrom#27
04-24-2009, 07:03 AM
Dumervil is a question to succeed, sure. But he's more likely to do so than what we're penciling into most of our front seven right now, and so the debate of whether Orakpo is a better prospect than Dumervil at WOLB is rather moot.
I don't know about that. DJ's been a productive player as was Davis and Thomas seems to be at least as reasonable a fit as Elvis, if not more so and Powell appears suited for the responsibilities of run support, at least based on his physical measurables and the fact that he was a run stuffer in college. Elvis' sack numbers fell off dramatically last year. Who else do we have who can rush the passer? I think the rush side LB is at least as big a question as these other guys.
There are four or five other holes of equal or greater importance on the D, so we don't need to overpick a guy who should probably be an early teens to late teens pick instead of taking a guy who actually belongs at or maybe even higher than #12.
Most people seem think this guy could go as high as 5, not early to late teens. What draft geek is suggesting that? Also, there may be four or five equal or greater needs, but who is available to fill them? I don't see an athlete in this draft on defense better than this cat, let alone one at a spot we need. Jackson? He's rumored to go as high as 3 now so he's probably to expensive. What exactly has he done anyway? His college production was not that impressive and his combine numbers aren't either. He looks like he's rising just because he's a 3-4 DE with the size and played at a major school. The San Jose kid was more productive by far. Safety? Nobody is ranked up there high enough for consideration, and the best one is a CB with poor speed who might be forced to move there. ILB? Rey Rey may be shuttled off the field on 3rd down...how much does he play against the Colts? NT? Raji almost certainly won't be there and some think he's not a nose guy anyway. What's that leave? Mainly some 4-3 DT's that would shift to DE or the tweener guys on the defensive line. If it's a choice between Jerry or Orakpo I don't see the risk in going with the proven pass rusher over another guy switching positions.
We also need to start with guys who are solid contributors. I'm not a huge Tyson Jackson fan, I think to take a 5-tech that high you'd ideally want him to be a difference maker like Richard Seymour. But for the Broncos, as they stand right now, there is a lot to be said for taking a guy like Jackson, who will probably never be great but should be at least above average from day one.
I disagree. I think you go for the best player regardless of position unless it's an OT, WR or QB. Jackson to me looks like just another guy. The NFL's full of journeyman type starting DE's who didn't go in the top 10 picks. I'd rather take the guy with the high ceiling. Don't we now have great defensive coaches? Supposedly so...so why can't we trust them to coach this guy to what he ought to be?
Its also why when talking about OLBs I'd prefer to see us lean towards a guy like Clint Sintim in the 2nd, over Orakpo or Brown in the first. Sintim isn't nearly the physical specimen, but he's gotten it done in a 3-4 and is a safe pick.
When I advance this argument for the OSU kid at ILB...a guy with major production whose probably the safest pick in the draft...almost nobody liked the idea. So if being a safe pick is primary...we're probably going to get what we expect...a guy who is OK but not great. How does that help us win?
We need to put down a foundation of solid contributors while we see if Dumervil, DJ, Woodyard, Larsen, Thomas, Powell, etc. even belong on the roster. Then in 2010 we can look for difference makers what will hopefully be a better top 15 talent pool in the draft.
The guys you mention as bubble guys...I think those ARE the sold contributors. Larsen has the physical presence and production from college plus he was obviously very aggressive and played well in his time on the defense. Woodyard's small but the guy's a playmaker. Powell...unknown but the guy is stout and thick like you'd want in a 3-4 DE...he's the same size and stronger than Tyson Jackson. I don't see any major bump ups coming out of the draft that look significantly better than these guys. I also think you look for difference makers in EVERY draft, not just the ones that look more talented.

Rohirrim
04-25-2009, 10:41 AM
Just watched Tom Jackson do a breakdown of Orakpo on ESPN with some nice film clips and virtual imagery. He says the guy Orakpo reminds him most of is Freeney. Orakpo is impressive. Benches 515. What I can't figure out is where he fits in with a 3-4. He looks like a great DE for a 4-3. But do you line him up as a Seymour type in a 3-4, or is that a waste of talent?

BTW, they just did a story on Oher that brought a tear to the eye. Great story.

lex
04-25-2009, 10:48 AM
Ive kind of liked Moss' play recognition when he has ventured into space. I also like his athleticism and height. He has seemed fairly comfortable in these limited situations.

footstepsfrom#27
04-25-2009, 11:33 AM
Just watched Tom Jackson do a breakdown of Orakpo on ESPN with some nice film clips and virtual imagery. He says the guy Orakpo reminds him most of is Freeney. Orakpo is impressive. Benches 515. What I can't figure out is where he fits in with a 3-4. He looks like a great DE for a 4-3. But do you line him up as a Seymour type in a 3-4, or is that a waste of talent?
You've got the same question on every one of these tweener type guys. He seems to have the athleticism of a linebacker and the strength of a D-lineman. People call him a workout warrior but he's been productive on the field. Besides...almost every player in the league has to face adjustments when they get to the NFL.

Rohirrim
04-25-2009, 12:03 PM
You've got the same question on every one of these tweener type guys. He seems to have the athleticism of a linebacker and the strength of a D-lineman. People call him a workout warrior but he's been productive on the field. Besides...almost every player in the league has to face adjustments when they get to the NFL.

Maybe the next evolution in defense is a floater type of concept where you only have a limited number of guys playing "set" positions (NT, SOLB) and the rest, maybe four players out of your front seven, are athletes who can move around and play a kind of mixed run-zone/pass-rush position? I'd like to see a QB do a pre-snap read on something like that. ;D

Gcver2ver3
04-25-2009, 12:05 PM
Everette Brown is the best pass rusher in the draft IMO...

if we draft him, i will smile...

Atlas
04-25-2009, 12:08 PM
exactly.... Look at big bad Vince Young, Selvin Young, Cedric Benson, a case could be made about Ricky Williams, but he was the man before he lost his mind, and the list can go on.

UT players are great college players, but rarley amount to anything because they have no mental skill. In the NFL every guy around you is superhuman, that doesn't cut it anymore, you gotta be smart. Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison didn't succeed because they are gifted like B-Marsh or Randy Moss (size wise) They were smart players who out played their opponents mentally, UT does not teach this.

Selvin Young was an undrafted FA.