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View Full Version : Under which Scenerio Do you Win, Lose, or Push on the trade.


v2micca
04-16-2009, 08:39 AM
Everyone has an opinion on this trade, I've seen it compared to the John Elway trade on one end of the spectrum to the Jeff George trade at the other. Personally, I think it is way to early to decide which end of the spectrum the Jay Cutler trade will end up falling in. However, I think by the end of the '09 Season we will definitely have a better idea.

So, these are the possible scenerios (possible in the quantum sense that all states are possible until you take the cat out of the box) under which I would consider the trade a Win, Lose, Or Push for the '09 Broncos.


Win

The Broncos parlay the draft picks into at least two impact players, finish above .500 and make the play-offs. The Bears fail to make the Play-offs.

Lose

The Broncos finish way south of .500 and our Defense shows no notable improvements. The Bears win their division and make a deep run into the play-offs possibly even the Superbowl.

Push

The Broncos finish around .500 but finish the season strong and show signs of life on the Defense. We get 1 impact player from the draft as well as several solid contributors. The Bears make it to the Play-Offs, but get eliminated in the second round.

Give me your scenarios.

Rabb
04-16-2009, 08:41 AM
Win - We draft defense

Lose - We trade up for Sanchez

Push - there is no push, we put ourselves into a win/lose situation

colonelbeef
04-16-2009, 08:43 AM
anything less than 2 stars from the picks and a QB that develops into a well above average player is a total loss.

Rohirrim
04-16-2009, 08:44 AM
In about three years, we'll know.

BroncoFiend
04-16-2009, 08:45 AM
Everyone has an opinion on this trade, I've seen it compared to the John Elway trade on one end of the spectrum to the Jeff George trade at the other. Personally, I think it is way to early to decide which end of the spectrum the Jay Cutler trade will end up falling in. However, I think by the end of the '09 Season we will definitely have a better idea.

So, these are the possible scenerios (possible in the quantum sense that all states are possible until you take the cat out of the box) under which I would consider the trade a Win, Lose, Or Push for the '09 Broncos.


Win

The Broncos parlay the draft picks into at least two impact players, finish above .500 and make the play-offs. The Bears fail to make the Play-offs.

Lose

The Broncos finish way south of .500 and our Defense shows no notable improvements. The Bears win their division and make a deep run into the play-offs possibly even the Superbowl.

Push

The Broncos finish around .500 but finish the season strong and show signs of life on the Defense. We get 1 impact player from the draft as well as several solid contributors. The Bears make it to the Play-Offs, but get eliminated in the second round.

Give me your scenarios.

It would be unreasonable to declare the trade as a win or a loss after only this year.

TheElusiveKyleOrton
04-16-2009, 08:46 AM
Two (or more) solid players (preferably on defense) and one winning QB = win

One (or less) solid players and a so-so QB = lose

The Bears really need to be removed from the equation altogether, IMO. That defense almost willed them to the playoffs last season, so them making the playoffs this year doesn't really have any bearing. Hell, they went to the Super Bowl with the Sex Cannon a few years ago, and it was fully because of the D.

Rabb
04-16-2009, 08:48 AM
the Bears put themselves in a hole for the future really, they have some amazingly glaring gaps on their team that now they cannot fix

they actually might stand to be worse off than we will if they did not hit on the trade with Cutler

TheChamp24
04-16-2009, 08:50 AM
It is impossible to say if it is a win or loss or push even after 1 year. I'd say even 2 years.

no-pseudo-fan
04-16-2009, 08:51 AM
We win with this trade if...

We can get 2 Pro Bowlers with the 1's and a solid starter with the 3rd. Orton throws more TD's than Cutler and less INT's....or

Cutler throws out his arm or knee early next season and it never the same.

We loss if....

The Bears are a Super Bowl Contender every year and we suck

Hercules Rockefeller
04-16-2009, 09:00 AM
Short-term: Bears, they got the best player in the trade

Long-term: Bears still win unless Denver can find a QB who can put up similar numbers and also do something with the picks they received.

SonOfLe-loLang
04-16-2009, 09:06 AM
Win - We have a winning record and become a playoff team over the course of the next 5 years

Lose - We dont

SonOfLe-loLang
04-16-2009, 09:07 AM
Short-term: Bears, they got the best player in the trade

Long-term: Bears still win unless Denver can find a QB who can put up similar numbers and also do something with the picks they received.

Completely wrong. Lets say Denver drafts defense heavy and, for the sake of argument, they all become fantastic players. With a new, improved re-vamped defense, the offense is asked to do less and we become, again for argument sake, the Ravens or steelers. If our QB becomes a caretaker and we go 12-4, who gives a **** if our QB isnt putting up similar numbers

SoDak Bronco
04-16-2009, 09:18 AM
Win - We draft defense

Lose - We trade up for Sanchez

Push - there is no push, we put ourselves into a win/lose situation

based of your opinion? I trust Mayock and other top evaluators who think he is a top QB prospect and a franchise QB. If he can be had for our 3rd rounder and a 1st, why the hell not. This guy is going to be a stud, and we do need a QB now that Cutler is gone.

TheReverend
04-16-2009, 09:18 AM
Completely wrong. Lets say Denver drafts defense heavy and, for the sake of argument, they all become fantastic players. With a new, improved re-vamped defense, the offense is asked to do less and we become, again for argument sake, the Ravens or steelers. If our QB becomes a caretaker and we go 12-4, who gives a **** if our QB isnt putting up similar numbers

Because in the trade we only gained 2 extra picks, so who's to say those two picks are going to be the difference on D?

SonOfLe-loLang
04-16-2009, 09:21 AM
Because in the trade we only gained 2 extra picks, so who's to say those two picks are going to be the difference on D?

Did you actually even read what i wrote? It doesn't friggin matter, the only thing that matters in football is wins. If we win, its not a bad trade, if we lose, its a bad trade.

TheDave
04-16-2009, 09:24 AM
Win: Properly replace cutler and improve the rest of the team via the draft picks.

Lose: Everything else.

cdesignmaster
04-16-2009, 09:48 AM
Win: Broncos go 4-12, McD gets fired, Shanahan rehired, Broncos trade 2 #1, a #3 and Orton to Chicago for Cutler and a #5

Lose: That's already happened

TheElusiveKyleOrton
04-16-2009, 09:50 AM
Win: Broncos go 4-12, McD gets fired, Shanahan rehired, Broncos trade 2 #1, a #3 and Orton to Chicago for Cutler and a #5

Lose: That's already happened

Worst. Post. Ever.

http://www.weeklyreader.com/readandwriting/content/binary/ComicBookGuy1.jpg

Rohirrim
04-16-2009, 09:52 AM
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/image.php?u=7659&dateline=1239526655

This is visual proof that reality trumps philosophy. This woman had an idea that swimming with the polar bears would be a wonderful experience.

Wrong.

Rabb
04-16-2009, 09:56 AM
based of your opinion? I trust Mayock and other top evaluators who think he is a top QB prospect and a franchise QB. If he can be had for our 3rd rounder and a 1st, why the hell not. This guy is going to be a stud, and we do need a QB now that Cutler is gone.

This was an opinion post, what else would I base it on?

it is my opinion that I don't care if Sanchez is a stud or not, if we pass on 1st round defensive talent we are no better than we were at the end of the season except we have a younger QB

sorry but I guess I want to give Orton a chance with an actual defense...something we haven't seen a semblance of in 2 years at least and look how far a stud QB got us with that scenario

SonOfLe-loLang
04-16-2009, 10:01 AM
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/image.php?u=7659&dateline=1239526655

This is visual proof that reality trumps philosophy. This woman had an idea that swimming with the polar bears would be a wonderful experience.

Wrong.

I know, i'd love to know what was going on in that woman's head. Now, panda bears i get:)

TheReverend
04-16-2009, 10:12 AM
Did you actually even read what i wrote? It doesn't friggin matter, the only thing that matters in football is wins. If we win, its not a bad trade, if we lose, its a bad trade.

:spit:

Kaylore
04-16-2009, 10:22 AM
In about three years, we'll know.

This.

It will come down to what we get with out draft picks. If we really hit on them and Cutler plays well it's a push. If we have mixed results and Cutler plays well it's lose. I would go so far to say if Cutler busts in Chi-town and we still miss on our picks it's a lose because we blew an opportunity.

Orton's success here will be a huge part of this, too. Ultimately it will take three to four years because this and next years' draft and how they pan out has to be factored.

chadta
04-16-2009, 10:35 AM
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/image.php?u=7659&dateline=1239526655

This is visual proof that reality trumps philosophy. This woman had an idea that swimming with the polar bears would be a wonderful experience.

Wrong.

actually they do that up here in ontario

http://www.polarbearhabitat.ca/

DrFate
04-16-2009, 10:41 AM
Win - the Broncos use the draft picks to acquire quality pieces and the Orton/Simms duo plays well enough to keep the team competitive on offense

Lose - McDaniels fired after 2 years and 10 total wins OR Cutler makes a postseason run

Push - both teams do well OR both teams struggle

baja
04-16-2009, 10:51 AM
What about the Cutler becomes an obnoxious tool that thinks he is too good to be coached up and hurts his team by being an asshole option?

v2micca
04-16-2009, 10:56 AM
What about the Cutler becomes an obnoxious tool that thinks he is too good to be coached up and hurts his team by being an a-hole option?


You tell us. The point of the thread is to specify the scenarios in which you think we won, lost, or pushed on the trade. Bile is optional.

baja
04-16-2009, 11:00 AM
You tell us. The point of the thread is to specify the scenarios in which you think we won, lost, or pushed on the trade. Bile is optional.

OK I will tell ya. If Cutler crashes and burns and we got the picks at the peak of his value than we win. I chose that option and where is the bile you speak of. I think it is more a case that you think I threatened your little thread is some way.

Rohirrim
04-16-2009, 11:06 AM
We should all keep in mind when judging this trade that the Broncos are not at fault here. There was Phase I when McD entertained offers to trade Cutler for Cassell. Then, there was Phase II, where McD tried to convince Jay that he was the QB of Denver's future, tried to patch up the difficulty, and Jay refused to be swayed. Then, there was Phase III where Jay refused to take Pat's calls and through his actions made it clear he would never play for the Broncos again. Phase IV was the forced trade.

I really dislike these various reorganizations of history where those who are emotionally attached to Jay (for some reason) alter reality to placate their emotional loss. Whether we win in this deal or not, it was not the Broncos' choice to make this trade.

Inkana7
04-16-2009, 11:11 AM
We weren't winning with Cutler. If we win without him, it is a win. If we're .500 in two years, it's a push, if we're more than 1 game under .500, it's a loss.

RocBronc
04-16-2009, 11:23 AM
To me the key to this trade is Orton... McD purposely talked to the Bears because of Orton, he needs to be at least an slightly above average QB or we are really screwed because we'll have to spend the acquired draft picks (or one of our own high picks) on a QB instead of on defense which we really needs to be improved for us to be a championship contender. I think McD is rolling the dice with Orton which means I don't see him taking a QB in the first 2 rounds this year (doubtful even the third round) because he's betting he can be playoff competitive with Orton.

atomicbloke
04-16-2009, 11:23 AM
I already know we lost the trade... no need to wait till the end of the season...

footstepsfrom#27
04-16-2009, 11:24 AM
Win: Score two major impact players on defense OR parlay one pick into a pro bowl player on D and the other into additional picks for next season that we use to draft Bradford
Win: Orton proves he's the real deal AND at least one impact player plus one soldi starter

Lose: Anything less than the above or below

Draw: Defense gets a major boost and Orton proves he's capable but not quite the whole package; playoffs by 2010

Los Broncos
04-16-2009, 11:26 AM
If we don't draft defense = lose

DrFate
04-16-2009, 11:34 AM
We should all keep in mind when judging this trade that the Broncos are not at fault here.

You realize that your revisionism is no more valid than any other's, right? Your scenario is akin to saying 'the final domino fell because the third from last domino fell'. When, in fact, all the preceeding dominos played a part as well. There was an entire unfolding of events here - and to say the franchise is not at fault is, at best, laughable homerism.

broncosteven
04-16-2009, 11:48 AM
Why do we have to win the trade.

We got fair value for Cutler, if the FO makes the right moves on Draft day then it will strengthen our team. IF they move up to draft a replacement QB it will have been a waste.

Hard to say who won or lost any trade. Even the Redskin trade we thought we raped them on is up for debate 5 years later. Portis is still playing at a high level and Champ is on the worst bronco D in over 30 years. I did think at the time Champ made us better.

Punisher
04-16-2009, 11:54 AM
Devin Hester,Earl Bennett anit no Marshall and Royal good luck Cutler

snowspot66
04-16-2009, 11:55 AM
Portis plays at a high level when he's not injured. Which he has been quite a bit. Champ did help and the trade would have been a clear win if we had done anything else with the defense. As it is we still got to the AFCCG while the Skins went nowhere but cap hell.

The Bears need to hope Cutler can still do it with inferior talent surrounding him, a lack of high picks to get that talent, and inferior coaching for him and the talent.

We need to fix our defense. I'm ok with Orton at QB. The guy does have some talent and has great work ethic.

broncosteven
04-16-2009, 01:02 PM
Portis plays at a high level when he's not injured. Which he has been quite a bit. Champ did help and the trade would have been a clear win if we had done anything else with the defense. As it is we still got to the AFCCG while the Skins went nowhere but cap hell.

The Bears need to hope Cutler can still do it with inferior talent surrounding him, a lack of high picks to get that talent, and inferior coaching for him and the talent.

We need to fix our defense. I'm ok with Orton at QB. The guy does have some talent and has great work ethic.

Turner is no master mind but he gets very good production out of his QB's and they are not afraid to run 5 or 7 step drops and heave it deep.

If Da Bears land a WR in the 2nd and a S, DL, OL they will be ok.

snowspot66
04-16-2009, 04:04 PM
Turner is no master mind but he gets very good production out of his QB's and they are not afraid to run 5 or 7 step drops and heave it deep.

If Da Bears land a WR in the 2nd and a S, DL, OL they will be ok.

If they hit on the picks. Considering their win-loss record in the past two decades I'll believe it when I see it.

frerottenextelway
04-16-2009, 04:08 PM
We were 8-8 last year. That's a good starting point.

Rohirrim
04-16-2009, 04:13 PM
You realize that your revisionism is no more valid than any other's, right? Your scenario is akin to saying 'the final domino fell because the third from last domino fell'. When, in fact, all the preceeding dominos played a part as well. There was an entire unfolding of events here - and to say the franchise is not at fault is, at best, laughable homerism.

Sorry to upset your Jaylove. I know it's strong. :wiggle:

I'll stick with the team. You stick with Mopey Jay.