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View Full Version : Good, Bad and Ugly stats on Orton vs. Jay


RunSilentRunDeep
04-08-2009, 01:54 PM
I was starting to warm to Orton during an earlier thread that discussed Kyle being more efficient in the red zone than Cutler (96.0 rating to 74.1) but I'm concerned how the wheels start to fall off as the game progresses and especially when he gets behind by double digits. Hopefully, the answer for his struggles lie in poor coaching adjustments than his balls seeking shelter in his stomach during crunch time.

See for yourself.

Orton sit stats

http://www.nfl.com/players/kyleorton/situationalstats?id=ORT716150

Cutler sit stats

http://www.nfl.com/players/jaycutler/situationalstats?id=CUT288111

Beantown Bronco
04-08-2009, 02:00 PM
but I'm concerned how the wheels start to fall off as the game progresses and especially when he gets behind by double digits.

No QB shines in that scenario. Look at Cutler's numbers.

With one or two exceptions, he flat out sucked in 3rd quarters and any time they got down by 9 or more pts.

rugbythug
04-08-2009, 02:01 PM
Good God. The stats are killing me.

RunSilentRunDeep
04-08-2009, 02:04 PM
For those who are overwhelmed by the entire NFL.com pages:
Orton QB rating in 2008
1st Quarter: 116.1
2nd Quarter: 76.2
3rd Quarter: 66.5
4th Quarter: 65.7
4th Quarter within 7: 62.2

Behind by 9-16 Points: 54.4
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 105.1


Cutler QB rating 2008:
1st Quarter: 89.4
2nd Quarter: 85.5
3rd Quarter: 74.9
4th Quarter: 94.2
4th Quarter within 7: 91.7

Behind by 9-16 Points: 68.0
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 82.4

fdf
04-08-2009, 02:11 PM
For those who are overwhelmed by the entire NFL.com pages:
Orton QB rating in 2008
1st Quarter: 116.1
2nd Quarter: 76.2
3rd Quarter: 66.5
4th Quarter: 65.7
4th Quarter within 7: 62.2

Behind by 9-16 Points: 54.4
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 105.1


Cutler QB rating 2008:
1st Quarter: 89.4
2nd Quarter: 85.5
3rd Quarter: 74.9
4th Quarter: 94.2
4th Quarter within 7: 91.7

Behind by 9-16 Points: 68.0
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 82.4

Good summary. Thank you. This says, I think, that when Chicago was down, the OL was not able to keep the other team from teeing off on Orton with the blitz. It also says he probably needs some work handling pressure.

Doggcow
04-08-2009, 02:14 PM
Cutler was always pretty studly in the 4th, especially on game winning drives.

BroncoMan4ever
04-08-2009, 02:24 PM
Good summary. Thank you. This says, I think, that when Chicago was down, the OL was not able to keep the other team from teeing off on Orton with the blitz. It also says he probably needs some work handling pressure.

get him a RB to take pressure off and the line will take care of him as long as he can slide a little in the pocket.

the OL was his main problem in Chicago. once he got behind defenses would rush him and tee off on him. our line can protect him, and with a potent running game he can have pressure taken off him.

as much as i hate to say it because i miss Jay and hate McDaniels, but if we can get a good RB we might be better on offense with Orton than we were last season.
less mistakes, we will see more of Orton throwing it away as opposed to forcing a pass, taking a sack instead of forcing a pass. and with a running game we might be balanced, and there is no possible way our defense can be worse than last year, so we might not have the record that shows it, but we will probably be a better team than last season

baja
04-08-2009, 02:33 PM
69

37

42

79

50

27.56

BMarsh615
04-08-2009, 02:33 PM
and there is no possible way our defense can be worse than last year

I think everyone was saying that last year :spit:

CHANGSTER
04-08-2009, 02:45 PM
I think everyone was saying that last year :spit:

Yeah, that seems to be said just about every year... and I believe it! Maybe were due...

USMCBladerunner
04-08-2009, 03:09 PM
Man...For the most part, I'm with the FO on this whole episode, as I think Jay really showed his ass, but the only way this team is better off is if they really hit with their draft picks...

On the field, I just don't see Orton outperforming Cutler within any system. This isn't to say that I think the Broncos are doomed, I don't think that at all, but I'm not looking for ways to feel that Orton will be better than Cutler. If the odds were even decent that he would, Denver wouldn't have gotten 2 firsts and a upgrade from 5th to 3rd with him.

If Denver is better it's because of an effort to improve the overall talent and performance of the team, but it will be in spite of a downgrade at QB and Josh McDaniels knows it.

Mountain Bronco
04-08-2009, 03:20 PM
Cutler was always pretty studly in the 4th, especially on game winning drives.

You seem to forget his season killing interception. Specifically the one on the goal line against the bills. Studly my butt.

Rock Chalk
04-08-2009, 03:30 PM
Cutler = Steaming Pile of Red Zone Turnover Poo.

Orton = Not Cutler.

Advantage: Denver.

colonelbeef
04-08-2009, 04:02 PM
Cutler = Steaming Pile of Red Zone Turnover Poo.

Orton = Not Cutler.

Advantage: Denver.

Orton= not a good QB

advantage=Bears

BroncoMan4ever
04-08-2009, 04:03 PM
Yeah, that seems to be said just about every year... and I believe it! Maybe were due...

good point. thanks for screwing up my day Debbie Downer....lol

although, with stability, good coaching, actual vocal leadership from Dawkins, dumping the trash players we had, we have already improved over last season.

also Nolan is a tough bastard, no way in hell is he going to allow anyone on the defensive side of the ball to be soft or let anyone take plays off.

i can't see how we can be worse, but the last few years have all proven that we can get worse on defense.

lostknight
04-08-2009, 04:21 PM
I will be interested to see what Orton can do with a better line.I went back and watched some youtube video on him, and dear God, he was running for his life on every bloody play.

broncosteven
04-08-2009, 04:24 PM
Stats can be massaged to make whatever point you want.

I think Orton will be better with our receivers but he won't be able to make the throws Cutler can. Which isn't a bad thing because we have a new O and new routes.

I can't wait until we get to see these guys play.

RunSilentRunDeep
04-08-2009, 05:27 PM
I'm not buying Orton's decline throughout the game because of poor protection. Was the Bears offensive line awesome is the first quarter when he posted a 116 rating?

He actually only got sacked twice in the 4th quarter all season (5 times in the first, 10 each in the 2nd and 3rd). So either his coaches got dumber as the game went on or Kyle starts to take a dump in his pants late in games.

If you're wondering, Forte averaged 4.2 per carry in the 4th so it wasn't the lack of a running game that was the problem.

Dedhed
04-08-2009, 05:50 PM
If Denver is better it's because of an effort to improve the overall talent and performance of the team, but it will be in spite of a downgrade at QB and Josh McDaniels knows it.
And he won't care one one iota, and neither will I.

SportinOne
04-08-2009, 06:41 PM
NFL stats are the hardest to draw conclusions from of any sport.

I don't care if Cutler is favored or not, the stats are NOT going to predict future results. They are merely a record of what happened. That's it.

The best way to judge talent in the NFL is to use your eyes.

SportinOne
04-08-2009, 06:43 PM
And he won't care one one iota, and neither will I.

If Vegas has us at an over/under of 6 i would put my life savings on the under.


Everyone here can save this to their archives if they'd like. We are just not going to be that good next year, barring a miracle draft of NFL ready players who surpass expectations. It's possible, but highly unlikely.

I'm not really worried about it. I didn't want Cutler to go but I feel as though we got solid value for him, if there is such a thing. Keep building, keep building that defense.

worm
04-08-2009, 06:56 PM
If Vegas has us at an over/under of 6 i would put my life savings on the under.


Everyone here can save this to their archives if they'd like. We are just not going to be that good next year, barring a miracle draft of NFL ready players who surpass expectations. It's possible, but highly unlikely.

I'm not really worried about it. I didn't want Cutler to go but I feel as though we got solid value for him, if there is such a thing. Keep building, keep building that defense.


I will take that bet.

RunSilentRunDeep
04-09-2009, 06:47 AM
NFL stats are the hardest to draw conclusions from of any sport.

I don't care if Cutler is favored or not, the stats are NOT going to predict future results. They are merely a record of what happened. That's it.

The best way to judge talent in the NFL is to use your eyes.

Well, I'm guessing most people's eyes would say Orton sucks balls in the 4th quarter. There's got to be something to Orton having a QB rating 50 points lower in the 4th than in the 1st -- especially when he was sacked less in the 4th and the running game was strong.

Stats may not predict the future but they reveal trends. For instance, I wouldn't let Charles Manson babysit my kids based on his past statistics. Am I being silly?

RaiderH8r
04-09-2009, 06:55 AM
Well, I'm guessing most people's eyes would say Orton sucks balls in the 4th quarter. There's got to be something to Orton having a QB rating 50 points lower in the 4th than in the 1st -- especially when he was sacked less in the 4th and the running game was strong.

Stats may not predict the future but they reveal trends. For instance, I wouldn't let Charles Manson babysit my kids based on his past statistics. Am I being silly?

Charles Manson=Kyle Orton

Advantage: Chicago

oubronco
04-09-2009, 07:03 AM
For those who are overwhelmed by the entire NFL.com pages:
Orton QB rating in 2008
1st Quarter: 116.1
2nd Quarter: 76.2
3rd Quarter: 66.5
4th Quarter: 65.7
4th Quarter within 7: 62.2

Behind by 9-16 Points: 54.4
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 105.1


Cutler QB rating 2008:
1st Quarter: 89.4
2nd Quarter: 85.5
3rd Quarter: 74.9
4th Quarter: 94.2
4th Quarter within 7: 91.7

Behind by 9-16 Points: 68.0
Ahead by 9-16 Points: 82.4

all this says is what we already knew, that Cutler is far better and Mcdipshyt screwed up

vancejohnson82
04-09-2009, 07:38 AM
If Vegas has us at an over/under of 6 i would put my life savings on the under.


Everyone here can save this to their archives if they'd like. We are just not going to be that good next year, barring a miracle draft of NFL ready players who surpass expectations. It's possible, but highly unlikely.

I'm not really worried about it. I didn't want Cutler to go but I feel as though we got solid value for him, if there is such a thing. Keep building, keep building that defense.

I'll take that bet too...right off the top of my head I can name at least 4 games we win...Raiders at home, Chiefs at home, Cleveland at home, Cincy on the road

supermanhr9
04-09-2009, 07:45 AM
stats mean nothing,,, Kyle will eb in a completely different scheme here, as well as Jay in Chicago. Either of them could either excel or fail miserably. It's a waste of time to compare them until the end of the upcoming seaosn wouldn't you agree?