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View Full Version : Consult the chart: Bears traded equivalent of top-10 pick, Orton for Cutler


mikeauran
04-06-2009, 06:19 PM
http://nflblogs.profootballweekly.com/AroundtheNFL/2009/04/consult_the_chart_bears_traded.html

Consult the chart: Bears traded equivalent of top-10 pick, Orton for Cutler

First things first. You know that draft trade value chart? You know, the ones that are all over the Internet that assign mock point values to draft picks? Jimmy Johnson came up with one of these years ago, and now one version of it has floated from one end of cyberspace and back and now finds itself on any page that comes up when you Google "nfl draft."

Well, I was talking to a scouting director who laughed when I brought it up a few years ago. He informed me that, yes, every team including his assigned values to picks based on years of charting the success rates of players, round by round and pick by pick, also taking into consideration the salaries each of those spots earn plus a few other factors.

And what he said was that the version that you and I see online is not necessarily the one NFL teams use. Certain teams, for instance, value top-10 picks lower because of the financial commitments and success rates of those players being out of whack.

But for sake of argument, let's use the one everyone sees and come up with a value for what the Bears paid to get Jay Cutler. They traded No. 18, No. 84, a first-round pick in 2010 and Kyle Orton for Cutler and the No. 140 pick.

Add the values for 18 (900 points) plus No. 84 (170) and subtract No. 140 (36). And though the Bears surrender a first-rounder in '10, NFL teams tend to drop the value of a future pick by one round, so a first-rounder next year is worth about a second-rounder this year. For sake of this argument, let's assign a value of that pick equal to this year's No. 35, the third pick into Round Two. Add that value (550) to our previous subtotal and we get ...

The Bears gave up 1586 points worth of pick, which is close to the 1600-point value of the No. 6 pick this year, plus Orton, to get Cutler.

And the beauty of the deal is that he's signed, sealed and delivered -- with no contract negotiation. Cutler has three years left of a six-year deal. Last year's No. 6 pick, Vernon Gholston, signed a five-year deal worth at least $40 million but up to $50 million.

Now do you think the Bears overpaid? They pretty much know what they are getting with Cutler -- unless there are concerns about his maturity -- as opposed to gambling on a college player who never has played a down in the NFL. Who would you rather have, Gholston and Orton or Cutler? That's an easy choice.

And I thought I would pass on what Court Mann, former PFW associate editor and current fantasy contributor, had to say on the Cutler character questions. I thought Court made a few good points in our email back-and-forth this morning:

I love how his immaturity portends an inability to handle adversity on the field or to serve as a leader. As if Lance Briggs didnít embarrass himself publicly for two summers running Ö as if Brian Urlacher didnít do his contract song-and-dance. Did they have any trouble retaining leadership in the locker room? For that matter, didnít Brett Favre -- the ultimate leader of men -- do his own thing last summer? I find the self-righteous, petulant-child argument completely ridiculous. I mean, Cutler deserves criticism for the way he handled himself to be certain, but donít tell me it foreshadows poor performance.

I agree 100 percent that his behavior demands that you at least consider whether you are getting T.O. or Ryan Leaf or the like. It sounds to me that based on their draft prep from three years ago, their Nashville-based scout, and the three Vandy players they have on the roster, they have done their due diligence and determined that risk is relatively small.

Another thing to consider: Given how much of a hit Cutlerís image has taken in the last few months, doesnít he now have every incentive to fall in line? Not only should he feel compelled to defend himself, justify the Bearsí faith in him, and prove the Broncos wrong, but much more significantly, heís playing to cement his second and most substantial NFL contract.

cutthemdown
04-06-2009, 06:21 PM
Trade value chart is no longer accurate. Even Jimmy Johnson said that his old one wouldn't work that well anymore.

I see where you are coming from though. Skins pick at 18 not that high, but you don't know what next yrs will be, it could be top 15 for all we know, or even top 10.

Teams with good qbs often miss playoffs, no sure thing Bears make it. The defense has been going downhill there.

telluride
04-06-2009, 06:42 PM
What these "experts" fail to acknowledge is that Cutler's immaturity *was* affecting his performance on the field. That pouty, blame-others, let-the-opposing-team-get-in-your-head stuff contributed to his awful red zone decisions, and his inability to close out games that needed to be closed out. The fact is, despite the 4k passing yardage, Cutler was regressing as a QB, not progressing. Can any one say that his footwork was improving? His check-offs? His read and reax? His ability to call his own plays during tech outages?

Listen, immaturity is not a situational handicap, relevant only when a player is off the field. It affects the locker room, performance during games, study time on non-game days, and so on. To pretend otherwise is idiotic.

(Also, these guys conveniently forget that Cutler is a type-1 diabetic who likes to party. That's a maturity issue too -- and one that cost the Broncos a game or two this past season.)

Dedhed
04-06-2009, 07:36 PM
How does that math work if the 2010 pick is in the top 10?

Bronx33
04-06-2009, 07:51 PM
Another thing to consider: Given how much of a hit Cutler’s image has taken in the last few months, doesn’t he now have every incentive to fall in line? Not only should he feel compelled to defend himself, justify the Bears’ faith in him, and prove the Broncos wrong, but much more significantly, he’s playing to cement his second and most substantial NFL contract.


Or you can say hes added a massive amount of pressure on himself to produce, it can easily go the other way Mr Edholm.

watermock
04-06-2009, 08:47 PM
Or you can say hes added a massive amount of pressure on himself to produce, it can easily go the other way Mr Edholm.

That means nothing. Here's the gist:

The Bears gave up 1586 points worth of pick, which is close to the 1600-point value of the No. 6 pick this year, plus Orton, to get Cutler.

And the beauty of the deal is that he's signed, sealed and delivered -- with no contract negotiation. Cutler has three years left of a six-year deal. Last year's No. 6 pick, Vernon Gholston, signed a five-year deal worth at least $40 million but up to $50 million.



Oh, I forgot. This was all about a new contract, RIGHT? WRONG!

THAT'S the reason noone want's the first 10 picks, UNLESS THEY ARE LOOKING FOR A RARE FRANCHISE QB.

Pseudofool
04-06-2009, 09:30 PM
Meh. The point system isn't a good barometer to measure a veteran player's worth. The system also has basic flaw in that it fails to consider how inflated the contracts become in for Top 10 rookies.

RunSilentRunDeep
04-06-2009, 10:03 PM
The chart was always a fraud and anyone that puts any stock into it is a total fool. Jimmy Johnson created it when the Cowboys had tons of high picks thanks to Hershel Walker and Steve Walsh. He temporarily set a market for morons but most GMs laugh at it.

The real mechanism for measuring player value is the Boner Meter. Mike Dikta broke it when trading for Ricky Williams.

Hercules Rockefeller
04-06-2009, 10:43 PM
People credit Jimmy with the chart but always fail to mention what Jimmy said about future picks: You devalue every future pick a round EXCEPT for future 1sts.

We can have the argument that dollar today will be worth more than a dollar at this time next year, but in this case Denver's not trading a dollar today (their 1st) for a dollar next year (someone else's 1st). That buck Denver got from the Bears could be a twenty this time next year. I'll take the chance to wait a year and be in a position to acquire elite talent anytime.

HEAV
04-06-2009, 11:15 PM
Let's face it the BEARS are one injury away from giving the BRONCOS a top 5 pick.

If something happens to Jay, then the BEARS are toast.

snowspot66
04-07-2009, 07:20 AM
Hmmmm.....hadn't thought of that. :)

Mogulseeker
04-07-2009, 07:56 AM
They still got Grossman

Jerry Curl
04-07-2009, 08:44 AM
no they don't....


Grossman became a free agent on March 1, 2009. Bears Head Coach Lovie Smith said that Grossman is not in the team's plans for the 2009 season.
and that was way before the trade.

Mogulseeker
04-07-2009, 08:47 AM
My bad... yeah the Bears are screwed if Cutler goes down.

baja
04-07-2009, 09:14 AM
My bad... yeah the Bears are screwed if Cutler goes down.

We should trade them Chris Simms for a second and our 5 th.

Hulamau
04-07-2009, 11:15 AM
What these "experts" fail to acknowledge is that Cutler's immaturity *was* affecting his performance on the field. That pouty, blame-others, let-the-opposing-team-get-in-your-head stuff contributed to his awful red zone decisions, and his inability to close out games that needed to be closed out. The fact is, despite the 4k passing yardage, Cutler was regressing as a QB, not progressing. Can any one say that his footwork was improving? His check-offs? His read and reax? His ability to call his own plays during tech outages?

Listen, immaturity is not a situational handicap, relevant only when a player is off the field. It affects the locker room, performance during games, study time on non-game days, and so on. To pretend otherwise is idiotic.

(Also, these guys conveniently forget that Cutler is a type-1 diabetic who likes to party. That's a maturity issue too -- and one that cost the Broncos a game or two this past season.)

Hell, for all we know Cutler gets knocked out for the season in training camp and the Bears take a swan dive from the high board! ..... (update) Ah I see now others had the same view already :P

robbieopperude
04-07-2009, 02:45 PM
Unless Cutler gets injured the Bears will win double digit games next year. At least I would say there is a 75 percent chance they will. Packers and Vikes they can split with and they will take two from Det. That puts them at 4 and 2 right there and well on there way to 10 and 6 or better.

The pick from the Bears next year will likely be in the mid 20's somewhere with an outside chance of late 20's.

Trade value chart is no longer accurate. Even Jimmy Johnson said that his old one wouldn't work that well anymore.

I see where you are coming from though. Skins pick at 18 not that high, but you don't know what next yrs will be, it could be top 15 for all we know, or even top 10.

Teams with good qbs often miss playoffs, no sure thing Bears make it. The defense has been going downhill there.

cutthemdown
04-07-2009, 02:57 PM
Unless Cutler gets injured the Bears will win double digit games next year. At least I would say there is a 75 percent chance they will. Packers and Vikes they can split with and they will take two from Det. That puts them at 4 and 2 right there and well on there way to 10 and 6 or better.

The pick from the Bears next year will likely be in the mid 20's somewhere with an outside chance of late 20's.

So a team with a bad oline, bad WR, and a QB learning a new system and a defense that is not as good as it was a couple yrs ago, is a sure thing for double digits win as long as Cutler doesn't go down?

I disagree totally. I don't think Cutler will be playing that well early in the yr, I think he will struggle to find WR open and I think Pace will be a bust at LT.

cutthemdown
04-07-2009, 03:02 PM
Unless Cutler gets injured the Bears will win double digit games next year. At least I would say there is a 75 percent chance they will. Packers and Vikes they can split with and they will take two from Det. That puts them at 4 and 2 right there and well on there way to 10 and 6 or better.

The pick from the Bears next year will likely be in the mid 20's somewhere with an outside chance of late 20's.

Besides why do people think Cutler going to a team with a great defense? Bears were ranked what 22nd last yr in total defense? Gave up what 350 points? Sure sounds great compared to our 450 points but really nothing to be proud of.

Having a 20th ranked defense is not anything to be proud of. The Bears defense is vastly overrated because of how good they were 2-3 yrs ago but last yr they weren't that good.

Tombstone RJ
04-07-2009, 04:40 PM
If Jay stays healthy, and da bears draft a decent WR/TE to throw to, then I see the team competing with Green Bay for the Norris Division. Forte is the real deal and Cutler will benefit greatly from his presence.

Really, it will be about da bears defense. I'd be concerned about injuries to the defense and how that will effect the team, more than the offense.

cutthemdown
04-07-2009, 04:56 PM
If Jay stays healthy, and da bears draft a decent WR/TE to throw to, then I see the team competing with Green Bay for the Norris Division. Forte is the real deal and Cutler will benefit greatly from his presence.

Really, it will be about da bears defense. I'd be concerned about injuries to the defense and how that will effect the team, more than the offense.

How the 2 OT play is key i think. Pace is old, been injured a little last 3 yrs, missed a whole yr 2 yrs back. The OT Chris Williams from Cutlers old college team has to prove he can play still, and has been struggling getting back from a nasty back surgery.

If both those guys play well I think Cutler kicks ass. If one or both don't the whole oline may fall apart. Kruetz still good but not as good, Garza a journeyman, the other guard Beekman both stink. I mean they are crap and the buzz is one of them will be replaces by frank omiyale who IMO is another journeyman. Both of the Broncos guards and maybe even some of the bkups would start on Chicago.

By the way Omiyale hasn't played much and is listed on some sits as an OT, but then i read bears want him to play guard, sounds like a project to me.