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View Full Version : Michael Crabtree vs. Austin Collie


BowlenBall
03-27-2009, 01:54 AM
In the OM Mock Draft I, I just picked up one of my targeted players, WR Austin Collie from BYU. It's pretty interesting to look at his biography, especially as it compares to one of the 'premier' picks in the draft, WR Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech. Check it out:

Height:
Crabtree: 6' 1" 3/8
Collie: 6' 0" 7/8

Weight:
Crabtree: 215
Collie: 200

Date of Birth:
Crabtree: 9/14/87 (will be 22 for most of the 2009 season)
Collie: 11/11/85 (will be 23 for most of the 2009 season)

2008 Stats:
Crabtree: 97 receptions, 1165 yards, 19 touchdowns
Collie: 106 receptions, 1453 yards, 15 touchdowns

40-yard dash:
Crabtree: 4.55 (estimated, has not run for scouts)
Collie: 4.54 (pro day time)

Positives:
Crabtree: Consistent production, regardless of opponent (13 straight games with TD + 5 catches); Made some clutch catches to win games; Great hands; Good Character
Collie: Consistent production, regardless of opponent (11 straight 100-yard games); Made some clutch catches to win games; Great hands; among the top 10 wide receivers at the combine in bench press, 3-cone drill, and 60-yard shuttle; Very smart -- 4.0 GPA in high school, Academic all-conference honors in college; Eagle Scout and Missionary (might not be considered a positive by everyone, but does give some indication of character and mental make-up)

Negatives:
Crabtree: Played in a pass-happy offense; has foot injury which requires surgery; did not work out at combine; did not work out at pro day; 15 on the Wonderlic means he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Collie: Played in a pass-happy offense, is from a 2nd-tier football conference

Draft Projection:
Crabtree: High 1st round (3rd-7th overall pick)
Collie: 3rd - 5th round (ranked around 120 on most draft sites)

Summary: While I'm not saying that Collie will be anywhere near as good as Crabtree in the pros (who knows?) , there does seem to be an odd disconnect here between these players' physical ability, college production, and their draft ranking.

I'd be interested to hear everyone's opinions on why Crabtree is rated so much higher. Is it just a media thing, or do you think that NFL teams also have a 100-pick spread between the two players?

BroncoMan4ever
03-27-2009, 03:07 AM
i think it is a small school bias with guys like Collie.

i mean look at Marshall, his freakish measurables, good hands good college career and yet he lasted til the 4th, and i think a lot of that goes to being a smaller college prospect. Yet the Detroit receivers, Mike Williams from USC was a top 10 pick, Charles Rodgers another top 10 pick from a big time college and both sucked. too much stock is put into guys who go to the big time colleges, and a lot of more talented smaller school guys are overlooked.

another example. ROD SMITH. undrafted out of Missouri Southern after breaking that conferences records in receiving yards and TDs and his schools record for receptions. He was a finalist for the Harlon Hill Trophy which is basically the Heisman for Division II football. and he still went undrafted. had his stats been put up in USC or Texas he would have been a very high draft pick. of the 94 draft where Rod went undrafted, the only other receiver worth a damn was Isaac Bruce.

because of Rod and it wouldn't surprise me to see Collie actually have a really good career, possibly surpassing that of Crabtree even though he is not seen in the same league as Crabtree right now.

WABronco
03-27-2009, 03:21 AM
As OM Draft GAWD Mike Mayock would say, "look at the game tape"...

Have never seen Collie play, but I'm gonna assume that he wasn't as physically dominant as Crabtree.

gyldenlove
03-27-2009, 08:28 AM
There is always a small school bias, it is easier to be outstanding against poor opponents.

With players like this there is always an element of certainty in the scouting, how certain people are that the play and talent of a player will translate to the pros. It is easier to be certain of a player who has played against players who will be or is already in the pros. We have seen lots of examples of small school players who became great, but it is just too hard to judge and most teams wouldn't want to take that chance early in the draft.

You can consider it like this, you can buy 2 stocks, one has a very high probability of giving a good return, the other has some probability of a high return and some probability of becoming worthless, if the stock is expensive you are going to get the one that has the highest probability of giving a good return, while you would wait for the other stock to lose value and then try to pick it up.

Mediator12
03-27-2009, 09:03 AM
As OM Draft GAWD Mike Mayock would say, "look at the game tape"...

Have never seen Collie play, but I'm gonna assume that he wasn't as physically dominant as Crabtree.

That is it Precisely WAbronco!

Crabtree's tape is as good as Calvin Johnson's coming out a few years ago. It's the little things he consistently does well like protecting the ball in flight, getting open in tight coverage rolled to him, TD production, gets off the jam right away using quickness and physicality, and his hands are excelllent. Those are the little things he does that make him a top 10 pick on film.

Austin Collie is just a real good football player, who also lacks a top gear to get deep without a double move. He has about the same route running ability, but is a step down in seperation and quickness than Crabtree. He is really savy, but does not use his body as physically as Crabtree to get and maintain seperation. His tape is very nice though, And I would not be surprised if he goes much higher than the late fourth come April.

Personally, I like Collie a lot and If I did not already get James Casey in round 2, then I would have probably pulled the trigger on him right before you ;D

TheChamp24
03-27-2009, 07:44 PM
i think it is a small school bias with guys like Collie.

i mean look at Marshall, his freakish measurables, good hands good college career and yet he lasted til the 4th, and i think a lot of that goes to being a smaller college prospect. Yet the Detroit receivers, Mike Williams from USC was a top 10 pick, Charles Rodgers another top 10 pick from a big time college and both sucked. too much stock is put into guys who go to the big time colleges, and a lot of more talented smaller school guys are overlooked.

another example. ROD SMITH. undrafted out of Missouri Southern after breaking that conferences records in receiving yards and TDs and his schools record for receptions. He was a finalist for the Harlon Hill Trophy which is basically the Heisman for Division II football. and he still went undrafted. had his stats been put up in USC or Texas he would have been a very high draft pick. of the 94 draft where Rod went undrafted, the only other receiver worth a damn was Isaac Bruce.

because of Rod and it wouldn't surprise me to see Collie actually have a really good career, possibly surpassing that of Crabtree even though he is not seen in the same league as Crabtree right now.

Mike Williams was straight up hype IMO and way too overrated. Charles Rogers was a great prospect who if he didn't keep getting injured would've been a solid WR in the NFL. Top 5 pick good, no, but still decent. Watch his Michigan State highlites, he was worthy of that high he was amazing.
And yes, there is a small school bias. Rod Smith kicked butt, but it was against inferior talent. Of course people aren't going to take those stats seriously and question an athlete's ability.
What makes Crabtree special? Just take a look at his game winning TD catch against Texas. That makes him special, not very many WR's would have the ability to stay with the ball, stop, catch it, dodge 2 defenders and score. Now, I don't think he will be amazing and an All-Pro every year, but still good.

David Wooderson
03-27-2009, 09:02 PM
Collie is white and they're usually busts at the skill positions...statistically speaking..of course ..:).

Kaylore
03-27-2009, 11:52 PM
I think playing in a spread offense should hurt Crabtree as much as Collie. Collie isn't as explosive as Crabtree, but the things that give me doubts about Collie as a pro prospect are the same things about Crabtree. Honestly he reminds me of a smaller Keyshawn Johnson in terms of the type of player. So I think the comparison is fair but more as a knock on Crabtree than an endorsement of Collie. We'll have to see.

BroncoMan4ever
03-28-2009, 12:06 AM
Mike Williams was straight up hype IMO and way too overrated. Charles Rogers was a great prospect who if he didn't keep getting injured would've been a solid WR in the NFL. Top 5 pick good, no, but still decent. Watch his Michigan State highlites, he was worthy of that high he was amazing.
And yes, there is a small school bias. Rod Smith kicked butt, but it was against inferior talent. Of course people aren't going to take those stats seriously and question an athlete's ability.
What makes Crabtree special? Just take a look at his game winning TD catch against Texas. That makes him special, not very many WR's would have the ability to stay with the ball, stop, catch it, dodge 2 defenders and score. Now, I don't think he will be amazing and an All-Pro every year, but still good.

the 1st line right there completely illustrates my point about how players from top schools catch undeserved hype.

and while the competition may be inferior in Division II, it isn't as big of a difference, that it should have made a guy like Rod Smith with all of his records and ass kicking in general be a completely unnoticed guy come draft day, i could understand it lowering his draft positioning, but making him undrafted was crazy. the guy was a finalist for the Division II equivalent of the Heisman, which means he had the skills to hang with the top flight schools, and get notice on draft day. had he played at USC, he would have been one of the top receivers drafted in 94.

while i agree that Crabtree looks good on film and does all the little things well, the offense he played in has me being cautious in whether i see him as a guy who is going to come in and be a major receiving weapon. he has Calvin Johnson hype right now, and nowhere near the ability. i am not really big on any of the receiving talent in this draft class, and don't think there is a big difference between the supposed top tier guys and the rest of the available receivers.

Broncos_OTM
03-28-2009, 12:57 AM
Collie is white and they're usually busts at the skill positions...statistically speaking..of course ..:).

Tell that to eddie mac

BroncoMan4ever
03-28-2009, 01:32 AM
Tell that to eddie mac

and currently stokley

UberBroncoMan
03-28-2009, 02:55 AM
Just a heads up. Spencer Larsen is also a Mormon who did the whole missionary thing and ended up being drafted extremely low.

Mediator12
03-28-2009, 09:38 AM
the 1st line right there completely illustrates my point about how players from top schools catch undeserved hype.

and while the competition may be inferior in Division II, it isn't as big of a difference, that it should have made a guy like Rod Smith with all of his records and ass kicking in general be a completely unnoticed guy come draft day, i could understand it lowering his draft positioning, but making him undrafted was crazy. the guy was a finalist for the Division II equivalent of the Heisman, which means he had the skills to hang with the top flight schools, and get notice on draft day. had he played at USC, he would have been one of the top receivers drafted in 94.

while i agree that Crabtree looks good on film and does all the little things well, the offense he played in has me being cautious in whether i see him as a guy who is going to come in and be a major receiving weapon. he has Calvin Johnson hype right now, and nowhere near the ability. i am not really big on any of the receiving talent in this draft class, and don't think there is a big difference between the supposed top tier guys and the rest of the available receivers.

I really disagree with you here. Crabtree is much more refined coming out than Calvin Johnson was, but he does not have the speed. They are 2 totally different types of WR's. Johnson has Randy Moss type Skills, Crabtree has Anquan Boldin type skills. Both are Top WR skillsets, just one is a homerun deep ball threat with little over the middle ability in traffic and the other is a underneath nightmare who catches everything in traffic with deep ability if you overplay him. They are both top 10 talent type skillsets @ WR in today's NFL, they just fit Different systems and different Situations.

And, BTW Georgia Tech and Texas Tech are nowhere near College Powerhouse schools, so calling Crabtree a big shool hype player is very misleading. Tech has emerged on the scene because of the greatness of Crabtree and some other very good players, not because they are a college powerhouse.

TheChamp24
03-28-2009, 02:20 PM
Also, talking about Rod Smith, didn't he have an injury in college that sort of made teams back away? And wasn't he older than some other guys? Plus, his stats in college weren't THAT stellar, his senior year he had 63 catches, 986 yards and 13 TD's. He was small as well, not an ideal type of WR teams would be looking at.

With Crabtree, I don't think he will ever be Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith good, but he can still play ball and very good at it.

Drek
03-28-2009, 05:05 PM
Just a heads up. Spencer Larsen is also a Mormon who did the whole missionary thing and ended up being drafted extremely low.

Is that supposed to be surprising?

Tim Tebow does missionary work, but he does it over the summer, not during football season, because he's an elite prospect.

If Larsen or Collie were elite talents then they probably would've done that too.

Also, as soon as a guy takes years off from football they immediately take away one plus from their scouting profile, age. The NBA is a good example of this, its a league so obsessed with the youth movement that upper classmen, not even graduating seniors, are basically pariahs in their draft. That carries over some into the NFL, as teams are less willing to spend top picks on players in their mid-20's.

barryr
03-28-2009, 05:47 PM
What hurts Collie is that BYU is still considered a pass happy school in a pass happy conference and that many BYU WR's lately have not gone on to do much in the NFL. Not saying that's fair, but that's why he'll be somewhat underrated.

gyldenlove
03-29-2009, 10:11 PM
What hurts Collie is that BYU is still considered a pass happy school in a pass happy conference and that many BYU WR's lately have not gone on to do much in the NFL. Not saying that's fair, but that's why he'll be somewhat underrated.

That only hurts you so much, Lelie was taken early out of Hawaii and Crabtree will be taken early out of Texas Tech the 2 most pass happy schools in the universe.

Kaylore
03-29-2009, 11:01 PM
Is that supposed to be surprising?

Tim Tebow does missionary work, but he does it over the summer, not during football season, because he's an elite prospect.

If Larsen or Collie were elite talents then they probably would've done that too.


You're talking about something you know nothing about. Standard LDS missions are two years for men whether you're elite or not. Tim Tebow isn't LDS and so can go on the shorter kind of service mission (whatever his denomination offers). It has nothing to do with being "an elite prospect." I don't know if Tim Tebow would have served a mission if he was Mormon, but if he did, he would also serve the standard two years.

lex
03-29-2009, 11:43 PM
Calvin Johnson and Crabtree were in two totally different situations. The QB throwing trying to throw the ball to Johnson was among the worst passing QBs Ive ever seen in college. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is one of the most effective passing teams year in and year out.

oubronco
03-30-2009, 07:28 AM
If Crabtree were to fall to us and we passed on him what would everybody think of McD then?

Mediator12
03-30-2009, 02:03 PM
Calvin Johnson and Crabtree were in two totally different situations. The QB throwing trying to throw the ball to Johnson was among the worst passing QBs Ive ever seen in college. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is one of the most effective passing teams year in and year out.

Yes, and your point is?

Calvin ran a prostyle offense with a poor QB and Crabtree ran a spread offense with a QB that can only throw about 5 routes and none of the more difficult NFL throws. Calvin caught a bunch of homerun balls and Crabtree caught almost everything underneath and very little even @ intermediate.

2 Totally different situations, 2 totally different skillsets, but 2 of the best WR's on tape to come out in the last 6-7 years base on what type they are.

lex
03-30-2009, 04:24 PM
Yes, and your point is?

Calvin ran a prostyle offense with a poor QB and Crabtree ran a spread offense with a QB that can only throw about 5 routes and none of the more difficult NFL throws. Calvin caught a bunch of homerun balls and Crabtree caught almost everything underneath and very little even @ intermediate.

2 Totally different situations, 2 totally different skillsets, but 2 of the best WR's on tape to come out in the last 6-7 years base on what type they are.


People really didnt know Johnsons limitations due to the QB situation. The things Johnson did used skills/talents that Crabtree doesnt have. Its impossible to know if Crabtree has any advantage over Johnson because that part comparison is apples and oranges since there is no basis for comparison.

Mediator12
03-30-2009, 05:07 PM
People really didnt know Johnsons limitations due to the QB situation. The things Johnson did used skills/talents that Crabtree doesnt have. Its impossible to know if Crabtree has any advantage over Johnson because that part comparison is apples and oranges since there is no basis for comparison.

That is what scouting and projection is all about. Delineating skills and talents from Physical attributes, mental makeup, gamefilm, scheme limitations, personnel limitations, and level of competition to name a few.

These are not similar players at all skill wise, they are totally different types of players. Yet, each are uniquely talented at what they do and bring to a team. Both rated as high as any WR in their type in many years. Crabtree rates much higher than Boldin coming out, yet both are the same type of Player. Johnson is the highest rated Type of his kind since Randy Moss in 1998. Both players grades are skillset based and not Overall based. Johnson is not going to excel in playing a WCO system, but Crabtree will. Crabtree is not going to excel in vertical passing offense, but Johnson will. The only other comparable players that have graded out that high @ WR the last 6-7 years are Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.

lex
03-30-2009, 05:10 PM
That is what scouting and projection is all about. Delineating skills and talents from Physical attributes, mental makeup, gamefilm, scheme limitations, personnel limitations, and level of competition to name a few.

These are not similar players at all skill wise, they are totally different types of players. Yet, each are uniquely talented at what they do and bring to a team. Both rated as high as any WR in their type in many years. Crabtree rates much higher than Boldin coming out, yet both are the same type of Player. Johnson is the highest rated Type of his kind since Randy Moss in 1998. Both players grades are skillset based and not Overall based. Johnson is not going to excel in playing a WCO system, but Crabtree will. Crabtree is not going to excel in vertical passing offense, but Johnson will. The only other comparable players that have graded out that high @ WR the last 6-7 years are Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.


Again, the only way to know that would be if Calvin Johnson were playing in an offense with a more functional QB. Without that, you dont truly know that Crabtree can do things that Johnson couldnt. The only thing you know is that Crabtree is probably not as fast as Johnson and is definitely not as tall.