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View Full Version : MLB: who will win the AL east?


PaintballCLE
03-25-2009, 09:30 PM
Just a quick preseason poll

BizzyBone7
03-25-2009, 09:31 PM
I dont see anyone beating the Yankees pitching, and depth in the lineup, even with ARod out.

Los Broncos
03-26-2009, 12:02 AM
Tampa Bay

SouthStndJunkie
03-26-2009, 12:09 AM
I think Tampa Bay will win the division.

Boston would be my second choice.

Killericon
03-26-2009, 12:13 AM
I only wish the Blue Jays could do it.

Ramathorn
03-26-2009, 09:26 AM
Red sox have the best starting pitching. beckett, WBC MVP Dice K, Jon Lester, 4everyoung John Smoltz, with buckholz getting better and a rejuvinated Brad Penny and throw in the ol knuckleballer for good measure. The lineup is not to be messed with. Red sox easily win the divison by 8+games.

vancejohnson82
03-26-2009, 09:28 AM
I'm a Red Sox fan and I say Tampa will win it one more time

TheElusiveKyleOrton
03-26-2009, 09:32 AM
I'm a Sox fan.

SAWX.

broncofan7
03-26-2009, 09:36 AM
O-R-I-O-L-E-S. mark it down baby! We are due!

backup qb
03-26-2009, 11:05 AM
1. Sox
2. Rays
3. Yanks
4. O's
5. Jays

backup qb
03-26-2009, 11:05 AM
Oh and I hate the yankees. Sorry, I just like saying that.

ayjackson
03-26-2009, 11:15 AM
Gotta be Tornot!!!

Beantown Bronco
03-26-2009, 11:22 AM
I dont see anyone beating the Yankees pitching, and depth in the lineup, even with ARod out.

If I had a dollar for every time I saw a similar post in March.....

TonyR
03-26-2009, 11:34 AM
Red sox have the best starting pitching. beckett, WBC MVP Dice K, Jon Lester, 4everyoung John Smoltz, with buckholz getting better and a rejuvinated Brad Penny and throw in the ol knuckleballer for good measure. The lineup is not to be messed with. Red sox easily win the divison by 8+games.

You may end up being right but I think you dismiss the Yankees far too quickly.

The Yankees finished 8 out of first, and 6 behind Boston, with Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson pitching significant innings for them because of injuries (primarily Wang) and ineffectiveness. Now they'll more than replace those innings with not only Wang but also Sabathia and Burnett and they've added Teixeira to the lineup. And while the Yanks are dealing with the health issues of A-Rod the Sox have their own concerns with Ortiz, Drew, Penny, and Smoltz, among other.

To put things more simply, the Yanks added the top two available starting pitchers and the best available offensive player in FA to a team that finished 8 out of first despite numerous injury problems. They won 89 games last year. How many wins do you add for Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and a healthy Wang? (we all want a healthy Wang...)

Snarfalicious
03-26-2009, 11:56 AM
The Rays will win this division this year. All of the guys on this team are level-headed (Apart from possibly BJ Upton) and know the task at hand. One thing that most of the other teams in this division has (Apart from the Orioles with Matt Wieters, assuming he starts in AAA, which I don't think he will) is a AAA team with about 4-5 guys who could come up and give the Rays quality innings and at-bats if one of their main guys go down.

They have the rare ability to start a future stud like David Price in AAA which is saying a lot about the opening day talent. Also, the lurking presence of David Price will help the Starters and bullpen pitchers strive to keep their spot because they know if any of them faulters, he will be there to pick up the slack in a phone-calls notice.

They have the speed (Crawford, Upton, Iwamura, Joyce, Bartlett) along with the power (Burrell, Pena, Longoria, Aybar) and not to mention one of the bests, if not the best Defenses in baseball. From top-to-bottom, the Rays have exactly what every other team wishes they could have, and at a much cheaper price tag.

The Yankees of course have the best talent on paper, but somehow, someway, they won't live up to their potential and teams like the Rays will flourish with their workmanlike approach knowing that nothing comes easy.

Drek
03-26-2009, 12:10 PM
You may end up being right but I think you dismiss the Yankees far too quickly.

The Yankees finished 8 out of first, and 6 behind Boston, with Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson pitching significant innings for them because of injuries (primarily Wang) and ineffectiveness. Now they'll more than replace those innings with not only Wang but also Sabathia and Burnett and they've added Teixeira to the lineup. And while the Yanks are dealing with the health issues of A-Rod the Sox have their own concerns with Ortiz, Drew, Penny, and Smoltz, among other.

To put things more simply, the Yanks added the top two available starting pitchers and the best available offensive player in FA to a team that finished 8 out of first despite numerous injury problems. They won 89 games last year. How many wins do you add for Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and a healthy Wang? (we all want a healthy Wang...)

They also lost Mike Mussina (20 game winner last year), Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu. They haven't improved that much.

That had a ton of luck factored into it for Mussina, sure, but luck corrects from season to season as well. If Sabathia wins 16+ you could say he off-sets the loss of Mussina, but expecting him to deliver more wins than Mussina did is presumptuous at best.

AJ Burnett could be an upgrade, but will he be healthy? He's got a horrible track record of bouncing back after 200+ inning seasons, and age doesn't help those kinds of problems. He's also only been a ~4.00 ERA pitcher since coming to the AL East, thats good but it isn't set the world on fire great. He's a classic Yankee-killer signing by the Steinbrenner clan, and those rarely pay off well.

Jason Giambi was good for a .875 OPS last year and Bobby Abreu had an .842. Teixeira's career OPS average is a .919 so he's a solid but not remarkable upgrade over Giambi at the plate, and they replaced Abreu with Xavier Nady who's a career sub-.800 OPS guy except for a hot first half of the season with Pittsburgh last year. That is a net loss.

They also got a surprisingly good season out of Damon last year after a poor '07, but at this point he's probably more likely to further regress towards those '07 numbers than his '08 line.

They were hardly the snake bit team the New York media tries to portrait them as. They got a lot of big years from older vets who either aren't with the team anymore or are a year older and a year closer to the end. Kennedy and Hughes didn't produce, but I think most people in the know saw that Kennedy was a smoke and mirrors product of the Yankee hype machine more than anything, and to a lesser extent the same could be said for Phil Hughes who was billed as a can't miss prospect when in reality no young pitcher is a "can't miss".

I'm a Sox fan myself and expect the Sox to win the division. Not just because I'm a fan, but because I think they did the best job building a 162 game roster. Tampa Bay was freakishly healthy last year, especially in the rotation and the bullpen. Not only did they have few long term or nagging injuries, their injuries were almost perfectly timed so that they rarely were without multiple stars for prolonged periods. The chances of that happening again are remote, and even with that massive run of luck they barely won the division from a team that had a massive internal issue mid-way through the season, not to mention injuries to three key position players (Lowell, Drew, and Ortiz).

In fact, if it hadn't been for Lowell getting injured, or if Francona had gone with even a marginally better bat than Kotsay at 1B, the Red Sox likely win the ALCS last year and very possibly the World Series. Since then they've added a depth of pitching talent in the bullpen and starting rotation along with probably the best 4th OF in the game (Baldelli). Regressions can be expected from Youkilis and Pedroia, who had phenomenal seasons, but conservative projections would expect significant rebounds for Ortiz and Lowell as well as better productivity out of the two youngest starters, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie, after overcoming rookie slumps and jitters.

They also are now carrying a depth of corner OF bats with good skills (Van Every, Carter, and Bailey) at AAA, with the pride of the farm Lars Anderson likely available in an emergency at CI. Add Josh Bard in the bullpen and Bowden in the rotation down at AAA and you have a farm that can fill holes better than almost any other team in baseball.

Every team is beholden to if they stay healthy. But I'd take a 100% healthy Sox team over every other team in baseball, and a 90% healthy Sox team over every other team still at 100% besides the Yankees. They have too much organizational depth built for the 162 game marathon that is the MLB regular season.

SportinOne
03-26-2009, 01:27 PM
Drek... We get it, you are a huge Red Sox fan. Stop trying to twist numbers and situations in your favor. Baseball is the ONLY sport that you can isolate a hitters or pitchers stats to their own performance. However, statistics are merely a measure of production as well as record of the past. They do not accurately predict future results. For every case where they did "predict" a result I will show you 5 to 10 where they didn't.

As for who will win the AL East, I'm a national league fan and I simply don't care.

Natedog24
03-26-2009, 01:31 PM
Real baseball fans cheer for a team without the DH :wave:

Beantown Bronco
03-26-2009, 01:33 PM
Real baseball fans cheer for a team without the DH :wave:

So do wussy pitchers.

Drek
03-26-2009, 01:37 PM
Drek... We get it, you are a huge Red Sox fan. Stop trying to twist numbers and situations in your favor. Baseball is the ONLY sport that you can isolate a hitters or pitchers stats to their own performance. However, statistics are merely a measure of production as well as record of the past. They do not accurately predict future results. For every case where they did "predict" a result I will show you 5 to 10 where they didn't.

As for who will win the AL East, I'm a national league fan and I simply don't care.
I'm not twisting anything, just giving my own opinion while pointing out disagreements with the opinions of others, i.e. discussing.

Not my problem if you can't handle a logical discussion.

Oh, and statistical predictions are pretty important tools in every day life, and are right a hell of a lot more than 50% of the time, including in something like baseball.

WolfpackGuy
03-26-2009, 01:47 PM
I don't think they'll see an avalanche of injuries like last year, so Yankees.
Finally getting rid of Giambi and Abreu will help a lot, but still having Damon for two more years sucks.

Drek
03-26-2009, 01:56 PM
I don't think they'll see an avalanche of injuries like last year, so Yankees.
Finally getting rid of Giambi and Abreu will help a lot, but still having Damon for two more years sucks.

How does replacing the 3 and 5 hitters, who where the 2nd and 3rd best offensive producers by OPS last season, one with over 600 ABs and the other with 450, help?

Teixeira is an upgrade over Giambi, but a big part of that boost in defensive. Offensively he's an upgrade but not a huge one. Definitely a smaller one than the offensive regression of going from Abreu to Xavier Nady.

What the Yankees most need is to see Posada be able to play catcher and hit like he did in the last couple years pre-injury, and also hope that Cano's '07 wasn't the aberration and that he can actually show some plate discipline. Baseball lineups are most successful when they go 1-9, not just a powerful top end.

MileHighMagic
03-26-2009, 02:00 PM
Rays will repeat.

Yanks & Sox battle it out for second.

Go Cubs!

FADERPROOF
03-26-2009, 02:11 PM
Yankees will end up winning the division, sadly, if not then Boston, sadly.

WolfpackGuy
03-26-2009, 02:35 PM
How does replacing the 3 and 5 hitters, who where the 2nd and 3rd best offensive producers by OPS last season, one with over 600 ABs and the other with 450, help?

Teixeira is an upgrade over Giambi, but a big part of that boost in defensive. Offensively he's an upgrade but not a huge one. Definitely a smaller one than the offensive regression of going from Abreu to Xavier Nady.

What the Yankees most need is to see Posada be able to play catcher and hit like he did in the last couple years pre-injury, and also hope that Cano's '07 wasn't the aberration and that he can actually show some plate discipline. Baseball lineups are most successful when they go 1-9, not just a powerful top end.

Money's not an issue, but the team had to get younger, and I also don't think Abreu and Giambi (especially) fit into the style Girardi wants to play.

Yeah, Giambi was juicing back in the day, but he hasn't been the same player since he left Oakland where he would actually hit to the opposite field with regularity. He became so pull conscious in New York, he could barely hit over .225. He had a high OPS because he either walked or hit a bomb, but when you put those numbers beside how many times he struck out, he really wasn't that good. Not to mention he could barely run or figure out which hand his golve went on.

Face it, Abreu hasn't been the same since he hit all those homers in the Derby a few years back. I didn't realize how LAZY he was until arrived in New York which was a knock on him in Philly. He's a decent to pretty good fielder and a great runner. Hittingwise, I've never seen anybody take more meatballs for first pitch strikes. That had to be a running joke in the league that he wouldn't offer at the first pitch.

I'm worried about Cano. I think the extension he signed went to his head, has a lazy problem, and swings at too many bad pitches. He really should be doing better with the natural talent he has.

I think Posada's days are numbered. He's had a good run, but 38 year old catchers coming off shoulder surgery don't usually improve with age.