PDA

View Full Version : Great article on Culter


Stormontheplains
03-18-2009, 02:36 PM
All things considered, it will take a considerable offer to land Cutler
By Pat Kirwan | NFL.com
Senior Analyst




The football topic that swamped the media last year was Brett Favre's relationship with the Green Bay Packers. The star quarterback finally wound up in a New York Jets uniform after months of speculation.

This year, center stage belongs to Jay Cutler, quarterback of the Denver Broncos (for now). Favre and Cutler have the same agent (Bus Cook), by the way, and that just adds to the intrigue surrounding this year's soap opera.

However, Cutler's case is much more interesting than last year's situation with the aging Favre. While Favre had no more than one or two years left in him when he departed from Green Bay, Cutler will be 26 years old on April 29 and could play for another 10 years.

Before any team calls the Broncos to inquire about what it would take to acquire Cutler -- if Denver even really wants to trade him -- it must look at his production.

Cutler has numbers that seem to command a big price tag. Take a look at what he did in 2008 and consider that the Broncos' defense was ranked 29th overall and last in creating turnovers with just 13 takeaways. They were 30th in points allowed. Overall, they had 44 starts from rookies -- the second-highest total in the NFL behind a Kansas City Chiefs team that was in a full-blown youth movement. In contrast, the Pittsburgh Steelers had only one start by a rookie all season on their way to winning the Super Bowl.

Other interesting facts about Cutler:

He guided the second-ranked offense in the NFL.

He was No. 1 in fewest percentage of sacks, with 11 in 627 pass plays. That equates to one sack every 57 pass attempts.

He was No. 3 in the NFL in third-down efficiency, the "money" down. The average NFL team converted 39.5 percent of its third downs; Cutler converted 47.5 percent.

He was No. 3 in the AFC in yards per pass play (7.3).

He threw for more yards than Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, to name a few.

He had just two 100-yard rushing days from a running back all season: Peyton Hillis (129 against the Jets) and Michael Pittman (109 against the Jacksonville Jaguars).

He had eight games of 300-plus passing yards (five of those at 350 or more), connecting for 15 touchdowns in those contests.

Sure, he threw 18 interceptions, which is unacceptable, but his ratio of picks to attempts was 1:34, which tells a slightly different story. Last season, Brees had an interception every 37 pass attempts. Favre's ratio was 1:23, and Roethlisberger's was 1:31. Cutler's career ratio is 1:33.

Only Jacksonville's David Garrard threw more passes in the fourth quarter of games than Cutler, who completed 100 of 167 passes for 1,212 yards and 11 touchdowns with just four interceptions.

Cutler is not a finished product, but when you consider his age, production (54 touchdown passes in 37 games) and contract, he has serious trade value. If Cutler is traded, the prorated signing bonus stays behind with Denver. Only his salary, workout bonus and likely-to-be-earned bonuses go to the new team.

Here's a look at Cutler's deal if the roster bonuses are to be paid:

Contract remaining if traded
Year Salary Roster bonus Workout bonus Cap number
2009 $1,035,000 $0 $100,000 $1,135,000
2010 $1,422,500 $4,000,000 $100,000 $5,522,500
2011 $1,810,000 $12,000,000 $100,000 $13,910,000




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




So, for $20.567 million, a team can acquire Cutler for three years ($6.86 million annually) and not have to come up with big money until 2011, when the $12 million roster bonus is due. That's a good deal for any team. Plus, it could then use a franchise tag on Cutler (assuming there will be franchise tags in the next collective bargaining agreement).

This year's draft class also must be factored into Cutler's value because he is young enough to play as long as any rookie can. The three top-rated quarterbacks -- Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman -- in the draft all are juniors, which involves risk. All three had fewer career starts in college than Cutler has in three pro seasons (37).



It will take time for any of these guys to develop in the NFL and, as we all know, coaches and front offices don't have the luxury of time. If Stafford is potentially the first pick in the draft, then Cutler is worth more than him on sheer football ability. Factoring in his age and tradable contract, Cutler is worth a second first-round pick.

This notion was confirmed Monday night when a former NFL general manager said to me: "Cutler goes for two No. 1 picks and a player, or he doesn't go at all."

Ask yourself this: How many teams would be better right away with Cutler under center? Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo, Washington, the Jets, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, Cleveland, Tennessee and St. Louis all have to entertain that question. As my retired GM friend said, "It only takes one team to realize it and a deal could get done."

Cutler hasn't helped himself with the way he has handled his situation in Denver. On the other hand, a new team might like that he's pressing the issue for a trade and will not even factor in what on the surface appears to be a maturity issue.

So, what would the Broncos do for a quarterback if Cutler is traded? That's an even bigger question and probably more difficult to answer. Do they turn to the draft picks? Do they insist on a quarterback in the trade as a short-term solution? Or do they step back and conclude that they just can't pull the trigger?

The kid from Santa Claus, Ind., would make a nice early Christmas present for some NFL team, but the Broncos may decide he's worth keeping under their tree.

TheReverend
03-18-2009, 02:42 PM
Smart guy

fontaine
03-18-2009, 02:57 PM
Like I keep saying. Cutler is a franchise QB and trading him away is like cutting of your head to spite your nose.

Every damn team has at least a couple of players who's deals etc get contentious and if the GM/HC aren't ready to manage it, and deal with it then they're in the wrong line of work.

LonghornBronco
03-18-2009, 03:23 PM
5 players
3 firsts
3 seconds
a third
a sixth

Minimum.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade

Drek
03-18-2009, 04:38 PM
Like I keep saying. Cutler is a franchise QB and trading him away is like cutting of your head to spite your nose.

Every damn team has at least a couple of players who's deals etc get contentious and if the GM/HC aren't ready to manage it, and deal with it then they're in the wrong line of work.

The problem is if Cutler just doesn't want to be in Denver. If this is what it looks like to many here, a way to force his way out of town and to a new place where he gets a fat extension, then its a whole lot better for the Broncos to make the move now while they're rebuilding the D and can get maximum value in a market with no real alternatives, no good rookies, and a ton of bidders.

The alternative to that would be making him play, hoping he doesn't shoot the tires off the bus, and then seeing if maybe you get lucky and things smooth over with time. Thats a pretty risky proposition, since this could flare up a year from now or two years from now if Cutler doesn't feel like they're taking care of Sheffler, Marshall, etc. like they should.

Trading Cutler is in no way the ideal move. But if he isn't going to be cooperative regardless then the Broncos need to move him by the weekend of the draft this year and get maximum return while they can.

TheReverend
03-18-2009, 04:44 PM
The problem is if Cutler just doesn't want to be in Denver. If this is what it looks like to many here, a way to force his way out of town and to a new place where he gets a fat extension, then its a whole lot better for the Broncos to make the move now while they're rebuilding the D and can get maximum value in a market with no real alternatives, no good rookies, and a ton of bidders.

The alternative to that would be making him play, hoping he doesn't shoot the tires off the bus, and then seeing if maybe you get lucky and things smooth over with time. Thats a pretty risky proposition, since this could flare up a year from now or two years from now if Cutler doesn't feel like they're taking care of Sheffler, Marshall, etc. like they should.

Trading Cutler is in no way the ideal move. But if he isn't going to be cooperative regardless then the Broncos need to move him by the weekend of the draft this year and get maximum return while they can.

LOL

A few days ago you were suggesting that the Broncos actually bench him this year and then even pick up his option to bench him again...

Remember that?

ZONA
03-18-2009, 05:04 PM
Looking at this from a logical stand point, I would say....

* Keeping Cutler is your best option. He's got some kinks in his chain for sure but he's a young all pro QB who can make all the throws. Sure you risk having problems with the coach but that can be worked out. Elway and Reeves hated one another but went to 3 superbowls. When Cutler takes the field, I don't think he will be thinking about how much he can't trust McD when the ball is snapped, he'll be too busy trying to find open WR's and such.

* If you do end up trading him, IMO, I think the most sense is to get a really great defensive player for him and picks. I put the player in there because I want somebody who can come in right away and sorta help fill that gap. It won't be at QB but a big time quality defensive player sure would help. Now, about those picks. This is how I see it working out best for the Broncos. Next years schedule is brutal. We just lost Cutler and indeed next year is a growing year with hardly any expectations. The draft, by many experts perspectives is a very very weak draft. Not many marque players at all. Of course the Broncos are going to get 2 first round picks out of this, but if they were smart, they would get even more picks by moving some of those to year 2010. That draft could be much stronger and experts think the available QB's in that draft (such as McCoy) are considered much better prospects. I think the Broncos could (not including the player we pick up via trade) get something like this.

2009: 1st round pick, 3rd round pick
2010: 1st round pick, 3rd round pick
2011: 2nd round pick

I would want the extra 1st round pick for 2010 so we made sure we could move up and take McCoy. We probably would be drafting higher then #12 so actually we might be able to just trade up by giving up the 2nd rounder. But the idea of spreading your picks out over this draft and then next and maybe even 2011, I like that alot. You are getting multiple high round picks for the next few years and that will be great when you are rebuilding a team. You can't do it all in one year.

fontaine
03-19-2009, 03:58 AM
The problem is if Cutler just doesn't want to be in Denver. If this is what it looks like to many here, a way to force his way out of town and to a new place where he gets a fat extension, then its a whole lot better for the Broncos to make the move now while they're rebuilding the D and can get maximum value in a market with no real alternatives, no good rookies, and a ton of bidders.

The alternative to that would be making him play, hoping he doesn't shoot the tires off the bus, and then seeing if maybe you get lucky and things smooth over with time. Thats a pretty risky proposition, since this could flare up a year from now or two years from now if Cutler doesn't feel like they're taking care of Sheffler, Marshall, etc. like they should.

Trading Cutler is in no way the ideal move. But if he isn't going to be cooperative regardless then the Broncos need to move him by the weekend of the draft this year and get maximum return while they can.

Actually the real problem is if either side doesn't want Cutler here.

McDaniels is obviously capable of trying to trade Cutler, but Jay has already said that he wanted to stay in Denver and will report to mandatory camps but needs to know he's the guy in Denver (through a contract now or a guarantee of one very soon).

But it's going to take both sides to give in and compromise, not just Cutler.

UberBroncoMan
03-19-2009, 04:10 AM
I think some Starbucks and a movie can fix all of this.