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View Full Version : Staying at #12 is looking like bad news


ZONA
03-06-2009, 01:30 PM
I have reviewed every player in the 1st round on almost all mock drafts there are and tried to see how they would fit in with the Broncos and then take in account where we would draft them.

The draft is about 2 things. Getting a player you need and getting value.

I don't think you will see much movement in the top 5 slots. The teams slotted to pick there I think will stay because I don't think most teams will want to move up that high. So picks 6-15 I think is where alot of teams would like to be. I believe the Broncos will be contacted for a trade for that 12th pick and I think it makes the most sense based on what players I think will be there versus our teams needs.

When I look at all the players projected to go in the 1st round, these 14 guys below to me will surely go in the top 14. From 15-20 I think that's where it starts to get tricky and some surprises picks can show up.

QB Matt Stafford
LB, Aaron Curry
DT, B. J. Raji
DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Jason Smith
WR, Michael Crabtree
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

I have no doubts that Stafford, Raji, Curry, Smith and Crabtree will be the top 5 picks.

So that leaves these 9 guys at 6-14

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

We don't need any OT's, WR's, or TE's. That would not be a value pick for us.

So that leaves these 5 players left who would give us the most value because we need to improve our defense.

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
DT, Peria Jerry

But here is my big stink. I think with the 12th pick, none of these guys to me are a lock in our system and we already have some guys on our team that have skills similar.

Everette Brown - When looking at this strengths & weaknesses, he compares to Doom quite a bit. More suited for pass rush, decent against the run but struggles dropping back into coverage. Not the best value for us at #12 because we have somebody pretty close to that already.

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Brian Orakpo - This pick would kinda scare me. It's said he isn't the most gifted athelete and truly doesn't do any one thing great. But instead is a solid player in alot of areas. We drafted a DE from Texas not long ago with those same tags on him and Crowder has showed us that review of him was dead on. To me, not so much about value here but not sure taking a risk on a guy with not much upside in terms of him already peaking physically would be a smart move at #12.

Peria Jerry - I can't help but think he is a slightly bigger version of Marcus Thomas. Not a true run plugging strong NT but instead more of a penetrating NT who depends more on hands, speed and moves then he does pure brute size and strength. If we can't move down, I could live with this pick because I think he would handle the NT better then anybody we have but the value isn't great here because he isn't the "type" of NT we are looking for and the fact Thomas is somewhat close to the same type of player, value is a little shady at #12.

Vontae Davis - Fast, great cover guy, doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses to his game. With a dominant CB on our team already, again, having 2 seems a little overkill when you have so much need on the DL. A solid player who I think will be a great player soon in the NFL, his value for us would be okay. Not what we would prefer, but okay.


So to me, the value truly is in moving down because then we would get additional picks to help build depth and it would allow us to pick up a player close to these top guys lower in the 1st.

I think the top 2 guys on my board for value to this team if we had to stay at 12 and the 5 guys just above were available, I would have to say Davis and Perry would be our best choices and provide us the best VALUE at #12.

Man-Goblin
03-06-2009, 01:32 PM
I wouldn't be so quick to rule out WR.

Peoples Champ
03-06-2009, 01:35 PM
There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

vancejohnson82
03-06-2009, 01:38 PM
where is Rey Rey??

ZONA
03-06-2009, 01:38 PM
There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

No duh, there is no way you factor that in who you pick because nobody knows who the sleepers or busts are. So then you look to value and need.

cousinal11
03-06-2009, 01:39 PM
Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

socalorado
03-06-2009, 01:39 PM
There are sleepers and busts at every pick in every round

YEAH! Quit yer bitchin!

I say Cushing. He can play outside or inside.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 01:41 PM
where is Rey Rey??

Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

socalorado
03-06-2009, 01:42 PM
Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

Hey dude, DEN is just going to have to grow a pair, man up and pick one!

barryr
03-06-2009, 01:42 PM
The Broncos need a guy that can get pressure on the QB, either at a DL spot or an OLB spot if in a 3-4 defense. To me, that's the biggest need.

If going with a 3-4, if Dumervil stays, which is a big if, they need another rusher on the other side. The best 3-4 defenses have 2 OLB's that give the OL trouble in the passing game.

Dukes
03-06-2009, 01:43 PM
Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

Except he plays for UT

vancejohnson82
03-06-2009, 01:44 PM
You're evaluation of Rey is off....


That's just my opinion but I put him in the 11-16 range

bap454
03-06-2009, 01:47 PM
Great thread. I have this bad gut feeling (these are usually spot on) that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. While thinking that if the draft falls the way it should. We will have to make our defualt pick between Jackson from LSU or Rey M. from USC. While I think there is a good chance Raji will fall to us, I think ultimately that Orakpo and Bj will go right before we pick. Im scarred.

Peoples Champ
03-06-2009, 01:48 PM
No duh, there is no way you factor that in who you pick because nobody knows who the sleepers or busts are. So then you look to value and need.



Right, which is why I wouldnt worry about having the 12th pick, or the 5th or the 19th or the 25th, or the 1st.

No need to get worried about having the 12th pick, we just have to hope the coaching staff will pick what they think is the best player at the position we need most. We can criticize or praise the coaches on our opinions after they pick. No need to get hyped about how good/bad the 12th pick is.

Triplelefthook
03-06-2009, 01:50 PM
Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.

If we are going to take a LB in the first round, he had better be able to rush the passer... my hope would be Cushing from that standpoint.

I am a big subscriber to the University of Texas Bust Theory.... just look at everyone that has come out of that University since Ricky Williams and look how their pro career has gone. I would say no to Orakpo as well.

Looking at it this way I kind of hope we don't stay at #12 this year, move up or move down.

And can we please not call any more football players "Rey-Rey" or any variation unless you are doing so to mock them?

ZONA
03-06-2009, 01:50 PM
Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

He's not a freak dude. Brown is a much more gifted athlete then Orakpo is. Orakpo is gifted but I think he is much more in the lines of a Simeon Rice type of DE. A true undersized DE suite to play the weakside in a 4-3. I think he could do okay in the NFL in a 3-4 but I don't think that's where he would excell. To me, yeah, I could live with him if we couldn't move down, but I'd still rather have Perry or Davis instead of him if all 3 were available at #12. Just because some mock drafts have him slated around 8-10 or so doesn't mean he's a great value for us at #12.

OBF1
03-06-2009, 01:51 PM
Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

vancejohnson82
03-06-2009, 01:53 PM
And can we please not call any more football players "Rey-Rey" or any variation unless you are doing so to mock them?

No No, Way Way

barryr
03-06-2009, 01:56 PM
What about Sintim from Virginia? He's an DE/OLB hybrid type who put up good numbers.

Triplelefthook
03-06-2009, 01:59 PM
No No, Way Way

it's very gay-gay

ZONA
03-06-2009, 01:59 PM
Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

True, you have to have I think several teams wanting your spot for a deal to go through because if you have just one team asking, you basically almost have to accept their terms. But I think in the past more teams wanted to get into the top 10 where as now, I think most teams will want 10-15 just so they can get some relief from those huge contracts. I think if some of these top rated OT's still on the board, we could very well see some teams trying to move up to our slot to get one. OT is still regarded as a premier position. And there are 3 or 4 guys at OT I think that could go in the top 15.

Rohirrim
03-06-2009, 02:00 PM
I wouldn't be sad if we traded down with the Vikes for their #54 and next year's fourth and picked Clay Matthews at 22. We could watch Bellychuck squeal when we stole his player right from under his nose. Then with the #48 and #54 we could walk away with Ayers and Jarius Byrd. Works for me. ;D

ZONA
03-06-2009, 02:02 PM
What about Sintim from Virginia? He's an DE/OLB hybrid type who put up good numbers.

See, now that's what this thread is all about. Moving out of #12, getting a pick or 2 extra and getting a player like this is what you call VALUE and addressing your needs.

Well done mate.

socalorado
03-06-2009, 02:03 PM
I wouldn't be sad if we traded down with the Vikes for their #54 and next year's fourth and picked Clay Matthews. We could watch Bellychuck squeal when we stole his player right from under his nose. Then with the #48 and #54 we could walk away with Ayers and Jarius Byrd. Works for me. ;D
Get Cushing at #12.
I think CMathews will be there at #48
Or maybe package some pics to move up into the top of the 2nd round and get Cmathews.

oubronco
03-06-2009, 02:06 PM
Except he plays for UT

I hope that with a REAL Defensive coach Crowder will come to life

Gcver2ver3
03-06-2009, 02:06 PM
#12 is a perfect spot to be at...

Taco John
03-06-2009, 02:07 PM
I like the idea of trading down. I've kind of gotten in this discussion in another thread (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=77987). I think it would be a crime not to get one of the two top NTs in this draft - and we're not going to get BJ Raji. I think we should trade down - but staying ahead of Green Bay, and draft Ron Brace.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 02:08 PM
Get Cushing at #12.
I think CMathews will be there at #48
Or maybe package some pics to move up into the top of the 2nd round and get Cmathews.

Mathews will not be there at #48 bro, moving up to like #34-#38 would probably be your best shot at getting him. But I don't think using your first two picks on LB's is smart. You can't wait till the 3rd round to start looking at project DT and DE's. That is just so pressing right now.

Triplelefthook
03-06-2009, 02:11 PM
I like the idea of trading down. I've kind of gotten in this discussion in another thread (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=77987). I think it would be a crime not to get one of the two top NTs in this draft - and we're not going to get BJ Raji. I think we should trade down - but staying ahead of Green Bay, and draft Ron Brace.

I agree 100%. I was just about to post this sort of thing as a scenario and you beat me to it.

maher_tyler
03-06-2009, 02:13 PM
If we trade back i think we should take a look at this guy...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/518624

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cousinal11
03-06-2009, 02:14 PM
He's not a freak dude. Brown is a much more gifted athlete then Orakpo is. Orakpo is gifted but I think he is much more in the lines of a Simeon Rice type of DE. A true undersized DE suite to play the weakside in a 4-3. I think he could do okay in the NFL in a 3-4 but I don't think that's where he would excell. To me, yeah, I could live with him if we couldn't move down, but I'd still rather have Perry or Davis instead of him if all 3 were available at #12. Just because some mock drafts have him slated around 8-10 or so doesn't mean he's a great value for us at #12.



He'll be long gone anyway.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 02:16 PM
I like the idea of trading down. I've kind of gotten in this discussion in another thread (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=77987). I think it would be a crime not to get one of the two top NTs in this draft - and we're not going to get BJ Raji. I think we should trade down - but staying ahead of Green Bay, and draft Ron Brace.

I like Brace also for a 2nd round pick. I think he could be there at #48. In fact, if we don't draft Raji or Perry and we end up with somebody else in the 1st, then Brace to me is an absolute no brainer in the 2nd. I might even be temped to give up a 6th rounder or 5th in 2010 to move up to around #40 to snag him.

orange skier
03-06-2009, 02:16 PM
I think I remember hearing similar things about Jarvis Moss...and Crowder, and a few others..........the question is who brings it to the field......???

socalorado
03-06-2009, 02:17 PM
Mathews will not be there at #48 bro, moving up to like #34-#38 would probably be your best shot at getting him. But I don't think using your first two picks on LB's is smart. You can't wait till the 3rd round to start looking at project DT and DE's. That is just so pressing right now.
Sure you can! And your overrating some of the players and situation.
Theres a VERY good chance that CMathews will be there at #48.
Also, BJ Raji is a 4-3 DT and nothing more. Hes been over hyped here for quite a while. Not missing anything there.
Heres a more than legit mock with all the needs addressed.....bro.

1
http://walterfootball.com/college/USC_logo.gif Brian Cushing, USC (http://walterfootball.com/pro2009bcushing.php) OLB
Height: 6-3. Weight: 243.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Combine 40 Time: 4.79.
Benchx225: 30. Vertical: 35.
Projected Round (2009): Top 25 Pick.
1/10/09: Voted to the AP All-America Second Team.

12/6/08: In a solid senior season for USC, Brian Cushing has 38 tackles, nine TFL and 2.5 sacks going into the UCLA game. He's a late first-round, early second-round prospect.

5/16/08: It seems like Brian Cushing can play any position. He was at strong safety and defensive end previously before moving to strongside linebacker in 2007. He was hindered by an injured ankle last year, so if he stays healthy he's bound to have an incredible 2008 campaign.

2
http://walterfootball.com/college/USC_logo.gif Clay Matthews, USC OLB
Height: 6-3. Weight: 240.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Combine 40 Time: 4.67.
Benchx225: 23. Vertical: 35.
Projected Round (2009): 2.
2/24/09: Clay Matthews ran well at the 2009 NFL Combine, recording a 4.67. He also had a 35-inch vertical and a 10-1 broad jump. He may have pushed himself into the first round.

1/10/09: A member of the All-Pac 10 Second Team, Clay Matthews (sounds like a guy on American Idol) managed 10.5 TFL, three sacks and six passes broken up.

3
http://walterfootball.com/college/Stillman_logo.gif Sammie Lee Hill, Stillman NT
Height: 6-4. Weight: 329.
Projected 40 Time: 5.23.
Combine 40 Time: 5.11.
Benchx225: 27. Vertical: .
Projected Round (2009): 3.
2/24/09: Sammie Lee Hill ran very well for his frame. Considering how rare quality nose tackles are, he definitely increased his stock.

2007: Sammie Lee Hill had 14 TFL and 4.5 sacks as a junior.

4
http://walterfootball.com/college/Iowa_logo.gif Mitch King, Iowa DE
Height: 6-2. Weight: 280.
Projected 40 Time: 4.72.
Combine 40 Time: 4.89.
Benchx225: 23. Vertical: .
Projected Round (2009): 3-4.
1/9/09: Mitch King's 15.5 TFL were pretty impressive. He had 54 tackles and two sacks on the year.

11/16/08: Should be a solid 3-4 reserve in the NFL for a number of years.

5/7/08: Mitch King had 4.5 sacks in 2007, and is looking like a solid, mid-round defensive end in the 2009 Draft.


5B
http://walterfootball.com/college/VirginiaTech_logo.gif Orion Martin, Virginia Tech DE
Height: 6-2. Weight: 262.
Projected 40 Time: 4.70.
Combine 40 Time: 4.88.
Benchx225: 24. Vertical: .
Projected Round (2009): 5-6.
1/9/09: Orion Martin finished strong, collecting 13 TFL, 7.5 sacks and four passes broken up.

5/7/08: Probably a right end in the 3-4 at the next level. Orion Martin notched 78 tackles and 4.5 sacks last season.

7A SLEEPER
http://walterfootball.com/college/Maryland_logo.gif Jeremy Navarre, Maryland DT/DE
Height: 6-3. Weight: 284.
Projected 40 Time: 4.92.
Projected Round (2009): 7.
1/9/09: Jeremy Navarre completed his senior campaign with 7.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks.

11/16/08: A 3-4 end who can get to the quarterback occasionally.

5/7/08: If Jeremy Navarre can get his 40 down, he'll shoot up this board. He had 4.5 sacks in 13 starts in 2007.
7B SUPER SLEEPER
http://walterfootball.com/college/FloridaAtlantic_logo.gif Jervonte Jackson, Florida Atlantic NT
Height: 6-3. Weight: 300.
Projected 40 Time: 5.03.
Combine 40 Time: 5.07.
Benchx225: 21. Vertical: 23.5.
Projected Round (2009): FA.
11/23/08: Jervonte Jackson finally missed a game this year. In nine contests, he has 35 tackles, 2.5 TFL and two sacks.

5/9/08: Solid defenders have been known to come out of the Sun Belt (particularly Troy State). Jervonte Jackson had three sacks in 2007, one coming against South Carolna.

2007: Jervonte Jackson hasn't missed a game in two years. He had 46 tackles in 2006, including one sack against South Carolina.

Taco John
03-06-2009, 02:17 PM
I like Brace also for a 2nd round pick. I think he could be there at #48. In fact, if we don't draft Raji or Perry and we end up with somebody else in the 1st, then Brace to me is an absolute no brainer in the 2nd. I might even be temped to give up a 6th rounder or 5th in 2010 to move up to around #40 to snag him.

I don't think that there's any way in hell that Brace makes is past Green Bay twice.

NFLBRONCO
03-06-2009, 02:17 PM
Don't we say this every year about where we pick? Denver needs a QB to be available at 12 for trade bait.

Rohirrim
03-06-2009, 02:18 PM
Get Cushing at #12.
I think CMathews will be there at #48
Or maybe package some pics to move up into the top of the 2nd round and get Cmathews.

I am 100% sure that Clay doesn't get out of the first round.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 02:24 PM
I am 100% sure that Clay doesn't get out of the first round.

He might but it won't be but maybe a few picks into the 2nd before he goes. I would go to Vegas and bet if they set odds that he would be there at #48. That's money in the bank right there.

socalorado
03-06-2009, 02:25 PM
I am 100% sure that Clay doesn't get out of the first round.

Thats a bit much. Maybe, MAYBE he goes in the 1st. But DEN needs a Jack, and keeping him and Cushing as LB bookends on the same team would be pure evil.

I think if DEN could move up to the top of the 2nd, he would be there for sure.
I will even revise my draft to reflect Cmathews being available in the top of the 2nd, and DEN trades its 5A and 6th to SEA to move up and get him.

Broncojef
03-06-2009, 02:27 PM
Maualuga Is the man at 12 IMO.

NFLBRONCO
03-06-2009, 02:31 PM
Maualuga Is the man at 12 IMO.

Yep or Tyson Jackson

cmhargrove
03-06-2009, 02:39 PM
Finding a partner to trade back with and get equal value is easier said than done.

If Crabtree or Maclin os still on the board when we pick, we should call Philly.

telluride
03-06-2009, 02:44 PM
Great thread. I have this bad gut feeling (these are usually spot on) that we are stuck between a rock and a hard place. While thinking that if the draft falls the way it should. We will have to make our defualt pick between Jackson from LSU or Rey M. from USC. While I think there is a good chance Raji will fall to us, I think ultimately that Orakpo and Bj will go right before we pick. Im scarred.

No need to get scarred.

Broncojef
03-06-2009, 02:48 PM
Dude, that is what I am talking about. Did you not read this part:

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Rey Rey is projected 20-25.

Again, you have so many LB's similar (Cushing, Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin) who are so very close in talent, it doesn't make sense to take any one of them at #12 when you could get the ones left on the board around #25.


We need to stop trying to get value at a pick, we are in the drivers seat to pick between 4-5 stud LBs which is a major area of need on this team. Stop trying to be cute and trading down and evaluate the best guy and get him at 12. I say its Maualuga.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 04:48 PM
We need to stop trying to get value at a pick, we are in the drivers seat to pick between 4-5 stud LBs which is a major area of need on this team. Stop trying to be cute and trading down and evaluate the best guy and get him at 12. I say its Maualuga.

I say you would make a lousy GM if the way you think is to take a player at #12 who could be had at #20 and not even TRY to move down for sake of appearing to be "cute".

I don't think I have ever heard one GM or coach say they need to stop trying to get value in the draft. That's like saying we don't need to worry about how much we pay somebody we like. Just pay him.

I mean listen to what you are saying. Go ahead, say it back to yourself and see if it makes sense. You say there are are 4 or 5 studs at LB. I'm assuming you are talking about (Brown, Cushing, Mathews, Maualuga, Laurinaitis) because Curry and Orakpo will probably be gone. So with 5 stud LB's who will probably (most of them) be available when we pick, you just go ahead and take one with #12 knowing there will be at least 2 of them left around pick #20 just so you don't look cute? I sure hope you are talking to football fools around the water cooler at work dude because I would have spit my water out laughing all the way back to my desk.

Br0nc0Buster
03-06-2009, 04:56 PM
I honestly wouldnt mind Vontae Davis
I know you are supposed to build front to back, but the guy really has potential

If the value just isnt there at LB or Dline, I am fine with it

gyldenlove
03-06-2009, 04:58 PM
Right now my pick is Tyson Jackson or Malcolm Jenkins assuming that usual suspects end up in the top 11.

Tyson Jackson is not great value as things stand, but with the Chargers losing Olshansky and generally getting a little long in the tooth up front, we may have to jump on him before they do. Malcolm Jenkins is hard to gauge, if teams think he can play CB he will be gone in the top 11, if he is only viewed as a FS he will still be there for us. We could certainly use a centerfielder at FS to groom.

Right now I like Jackson the best, he fits in very well, his type of play and his personality are both well suited to the 3-4 and he has excellent intangibles.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 05:10 PM
I honestly wouldnt mind Vontae Davis
I know you are supposed to build front to back, but the guy really has potential

If the value just isnt there at LB or Dline, I am fine with it

I hope Jenkins and Davis are available when #12 comes, guaranteed we get a few calls then. CB is one of the premier positions and if both guys are there, I think we do make a deal to trade down.

broncofan7
03-06-2009, 05:18 PM
Orakpo is a freak. He would be an absolute steal at 12.

cosign--
He does not compare to crowder AT ALL. Orpako is EXPLOSIVE and DISRUPTIVE.

lex
03-06-2009, 05:19 PM
I see a lot of talk about LB. But who do we currently have at LB?

DJ Williams
Spencer Larsen
Jarvis Moss
Elvise Dumervil
Wesley Woodyard

But we have no NT, which is kind of important in a 3-4. Besides, if McDaniels holds true to "the patriot way", there will be a greater tendency to draft DLine and sign FA LBs.

I think if they like Raji, there will be a reluctance to trade down until draft day, due to the possibility that they will want to see if he slides.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 05:34 PM
Right now my pick is Tyson Jackson or Malcolm Jenkins assuming that usual suspects end up in the top 11.

Tyson Jackson is not great value as things stand, but with the Chargers losing Olshansky and generally getting a little long in the tooth up front, we may have to jump on him before they do. Malcolm Jenkins is hard to gauge, if teams think he can play CB he will be gone in the top 11, if he is only viewed as a FS he will still be there for us. We could certainly use a centerfielder at FS to groom.

Right now I like Jackson the best, he fits in very well, his type of play and his personality are both well suited to the 3-4 and he has excellent intangibles.

Yes, both Jenkins and Jackson would help and if we were able to trade down even 5 spots (and pick up a low 2nd) I would for sure take Jackson around #18. That is great value because you picked up the extra 2nd round pick (maybe a high 3rd instead of low 2nd, either one) and you got a true lagit 3-4 DE in round one. I would not be sad at all if that's how things unfolded draft day.

_Oro_
03-06-2009, 05:43 PM
I see a lot of talk about LB. But who do we currently have at LB?

DJ Williams
Spencer Larsen
Jarvis Moss
Elvise Dumervil
Wesley Woodyard

But we have no NT, which is kind of important in a 3-4. Besides, if McDaniels holds true to "the patriot way", there will be a greater tendency to draft DLine and sign FA LBs.

I think if they like Raji, there will be a reluctance to trade down until draft day, due to the possibility that they will want to see if he slides.

The "Patriot Way" last year reached big time for Jerod Mayo... I see
us doing exactly the same and reaching for Rey-Rey.

Br0nc0Buster
03-06-2009, 05:48 PM
The "Patriot Way" last year reached big time for Jerod Mayo... I see
us doing exactly the same and reaching for Rey-Rey.

Hopefully we can have similar resutls
Mayo won defensive rookie of the year

baja
03-06-2009, 05:50 PM
I have reviewed every player in the 1st round on almost all mock drafts there are and tried to see how they would fit in with the Broncos and then take in account where we would draft them.

The draft is about 2 things. Getting a player you need and getting value.

I don't think you will see much movement in the top 5 slots. The teams slotted to pick there I think will stay because I don't think most teams will want to move up that high. So picks 6-15 I think is where alot of teams would like to be. I believe the Broncos will be contacted for a trade for that 12th pick and I think it makes the most sense based on what players I think will be there versus our teams needs.

When I look at all the players projected to go in the 1st round, these 14 guys below to me will surely go in the top 14. From 15-20 I think that's where it starts to get tricky and some surprises picks can show up.

QB Matt Stafford
LB, Aaron Curry
DT, B. J. Raji
DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Jason Smith
WR, Michael Crabtree
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

I have no doubts that Stafford, Raji, Curry, Smith and Crabtree will be the top 5 picks.

So that leaves these 9 guys at 6-14

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

We don't need any OT's, WR's, or TE's. That would not be a value pick for us.

So that leaves these 5 players left who would give us the most value because we need to improve our defense.

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
DT, Peria Jerry

But here is my big stink. I think with the 12th pick, none of these guys to me are a lock in our system and we already have some guys on our team that have skills similar.

Everette Brown - When looking at this strengths & weaknesses, he compares to Doom quite a bit. More suited for pass rush, decent against the run but struggles dropping back into coverage. Not the best value for us at #12 because we have somebody pretty close to that already.

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Brian Orakpo - This pick would kinda scare me. It's said he isn't the most gifted athelete and truly doesn't do any one thing great. But instead is a solid player in alot of areas. We drafted a DE from Texas not long ago with those same tags on him and Crowder has showed us that review of him was dead on. To me, not so much about value here but not sure taking a risk on a guy with not much upside in terms of him already peaking physically would be a smart move at #12.

Peria Jerry - I can't help but think he is a slightly bigger version of Marcus Thomas. Not a true run plugging strong NT but instead more of a penetrating NT who depends more on hands, speed and moves then he does pure brute size and strength. If we can't move down, I could live with this pick because I think he would handle the NT better then anybody we have but the value isn't great here because he isn't the "type" of NT we are looking for and the fact Thomas is somewhat close to the same type of player, value is a little shady at #12.

Vontae Davis - Fast, great cover guy, doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses to his game. With a dominant CB on our team already, again, having 2 seems a little overkill when you have so much need on the DL. A solid player who I think will be a great player soon in the NFL, his value for us would be okay. Not what we would prefer, but okay.


So to me, the value truly is in moving down because then we would get additional picks to help build depth and it would allow us to pick up a player close to these top guys lower in the 1st.

I think the top 2 guys on my board for value to this team if we had to stay at 12 and the 5 guys just above were available, I would have to say Davis and Perry would be our best choices and provide us the best VALUE at #12.

Nice reasoning Zona, good post!

Have you thought about trade down scenarios for Denver?

Maybe we should trade down to about 25. Thoughts?

lex
03-06-2009, 05:58 PM
The "Patriot Way" last year reached big time for Jerod Mayo... I see
us doing exactly the same and reaching for Rey-Rey.


No kidding. I realize that. But if you look at what they had done prior to that, it was Vrabel, Seau, Thomas, Colvin...all FAs. Meanwhile, their entire DLine was drafted. And if you look at the FAs this year, youll see that there were more quality LBs available than quality DLinemen.

Not only that but McDaniels said he wants smart players. Lack of discipline is one of the biggest complaints about Maualuga.

_Oro_
03-06-2009, 06:25 PM
No kidding. I realize that. But if you look at what they had done prior to that, it was Vrabel, Seau, Thomas, Colvin...all FAs. Meanwhile, their entire DLine was drafted. And if you look at the FAs this year, youll see that there were more quality LBs available than quality DLinemen.

Not only that but McDaniels said he wants smart players. Lack of discipline is one of the biggest complaints about Maualuga.

I'll give you that Maualuga doesn't fit the blue collar/ disciplined / smart category. So which projected 1st rounder really fits the Patriot build?

Northman
03-06-2009, 06:31 PM
See, now that's what this thread is all about. Moving out of #12, getting a pick or 2 extra and getting a player like this is what you call VALUE and addressing your needs.

Well done mate.


What NFL team do you work for again?

ZONA
03-06-2009, 06:43 PM
Of course Mayo looked good. He was surrounded by solid players on a solid scheme with an offense that didn't force them on the field all day long. Put Mayo on the Bengals and you might have a different story. He's a solid player but he looked even better because of the team he was on.

Baja - trying to evaluate moving down is tough because you don't know who is going to want to move up. I think it will boil down to draft day because as it unfolds, their could be a player slip down to #12 that we don't have a need for but another team originally might have thought he was going to go higher and they might think moving up to #12 is doable where they might not have wanted to pay the price to move up to say #8.

But, moving down in itself alone isn't enough. Sure you pick up the extra pick(s) but you also have to still be targeting a guy you want and you have to try your best to evaluate the teams picking through #13 to where we would end up picking in the first. The player we may want most could be coveted by a team picking just right before where we would. But my thoughts for this draft are that there are so many good LB's available that even if we didn't get the guy we wanted most, I still think it's a good chance we could end up with one of those LB's in the lower first and getting the extra picks so I think it's a SAFE move down regardless.

I think a dream scenario (within reason) for the Broncos would be moving down to like #18 and picking up a high 2nd rounder. With #18 I would snag Jackson because I think DL players have more value on them then LB's do (generally speaking). To me it's tremendous value for the Broncos because Jackson is probably the best true NFL 3-4 DE in the draft and we really need one. Then, my hopes would be one of those top LB's falling to us in the high 2nd. Maybe Mathews, maybe Laraunitis. You're getting 2 good defensive players for probably close to the same contract you would have had to give #12.

There are a few other players you could plug into that scenario but I like the value better for us moving down far enough to pick up the high 2nd pick and adding more players to our needy defense.

And it's not just teams wanting to move up. You could have a situation where a team like Detroit goes ahead and snags Jason Smith with pick #1 and sees Sanchez there on the board and calls us and gives us their high 2nd round pick and a 2nd & 3rd round pick in 2010 and swaps 2010 1st rounders with us (probably would be terms in there that if they had a top 5 pick or we had a pick lower then #20 where they would then compensate us with a 2010 3rd and 4th, something like that). I still think we could land one of the great LB's in the 2nd this year and then next year we would be set. A high 1st rounder (top 10 probably), 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders. There's lots of cool scnearios you could do. Especially if you are willing to get picks in the following year. That's when they turn into high picks and not 4th and 5th rounders.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 06:52 PM
What NFL team do you work for again?

I could tell you but then I would have to kill you ROFL!


It's called an opinion, we are all welcome to have one. I just try to use logic, past draft knowledge and expert draft scouting knowledge produced by both stats and player guru's such as Mayock and others.

So do you think we should take Rey at #12 and then watch Laruanitis, Mathews, and possibly Cushing go lower, knowing we could have had one of them probably at around #25 and added a 2nd round pick? Seems logical to me to add more picks when you have so many holes on defense and this draft is deep in quality LB's so it's probably safe to move down because there is going to be a player we can use lower in the first and there very well could be a LB that could have gone in the 1st fall to us in the 2nd. Getting 2 quality defenders in the top say 38 picks for roughly the same contract you would have given Rey at #12. You don't need to work for an NFL team to see that.

Northman
03-06-2009, 07:08 PM
I could tell you but then I would have to kill you ROFL!


It's called an opinion, we are all welcome to have one. I just try to use logic, past draft knowledge and expert draft scouting knowledge produced by both stats and player guru's such as Mayock and others.

So do you think we should take Rey at #12 and then watch Laruanitis, Mathews, and possibly Cushing go lower, knowing we could have had one of them probably at around #25 and added a 2nd round pick? Seems logical to me to add more picks when you have so many holes on defense and this draft is deep in quality LB's so it's probably safe to move down because there is going to be a player we can use lower in the first and there very well could be a LB that could have gone in the 1st fall to us in the 2nd. Getting 2 quality defenders in the top say 38 picks for roughly the same contract you would have given Rey at #12. You don't need to work for an NFL team to see that.


Im just busting your balls Zona. But, it just depends on how you value a certain player. I think Maualuga is better than the rest of the LB's that you have listed. Just like i think Sidbury is a better DE than his 6th-7th round projection. However, some people including you will see it differently. I think that Rey would be an ideal playmaker over the others but its just my opinion but in the end he could be bust or be the best one of the group. We could trade down and take a guy like Connor or Cushing but what happens if we pass on Rey and then the guy we take busts? See what i mean. Its all hypothetical unfortuantely. Im sure its good for debate but in the end all that matters is how McD and company feel about said draft pick there. Last year a lot of Guru's saw the 1st round going differently but then all of a sudden there was a huge run on Olineman. Something they werent expecting.

ZONA
03-06-2009, 07:32 PM
Im just busting your balls Zona. But, it just depends on how you value a certain player. I think Maualuga is better than the rest of the LB's that you have listed. Just like i think Sidbury is a better DE than his 6th-7th round projection. However, some people including you will see it differently. I think that Rey would be an ideal playmaker over the others but its just my opinion but in the end he could be bust or be the best one of the group. We could trade down and take a guy like Connor or Cushing but what happens if we pass on Rey and then the guy we take busts? See what i mean. Its all hypothetical unfortuantely. Im sure its good for debate but in the end all that matters is how McD and company feel about said draft pick there. Last year a lot of Guru's saw the 1st round going differently but then all of a sudden there was a huge run on Olineman. Something they werent expecting.

That's why I try to view it as an NFL scout or GM would. They place value not only on individual players based on their "board" but as a general rule, most teams do have some type of standard value chart based on position. That is why you don't see kickers taken very high and positions like Center, Safety, TE you might see one or 2 taken in the first round but generally teams think they can find those positions later in the draft. There's no rules to this as you know but positions such as QB, DE, CB and LT are usually the highest valued positions, and now that more and more teams are turning to the 3-4 defense, we may see a little more value placed on NT. I've always thought that college had plenty of the "tweener" DE's who could end up playing the OLB in a 3-4 and generally you could find them after the 1st round.

Hey, Rey could very well be the best of all them. But if you take him at #12 and he busts, that's a high priced bust. If you moved down and got 2 players, I think your odds go up a little bit that one of them will be good and if one is a bust then your not out the high priced #12 contract (see Jarvis Moss - and we moved UP to get him. Talk about bad moves, damn).

It's obvious to me we are in a rebuilding mode and with having so many needs on defense, I think it makes the most sense for our team to try and move down. Yup, it could turn out where we can't work a deal and we just have to pick at #12. But I think we should be able to move out of #12 and we should not be in a hurry to rebuild. Say Detroit picks #1 as I say and get OT and they want Sanchez at #12 but all they have to offer is their #1 next year and their 2nd rounder next year (or their 3rd and 4th instead of 2nd), I would jump on that. It's gonna take some time to right this ship. I don't think the Broncos are headed to the Superbowl next year so as a GM I am thinking down the road and if giving up #12 this year get me to a situation where next year I have two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks, I do the deal (if it's indeed a team like Detroit or Cinci - getting their 1st round pick probably will result in a top 10 pick and their 2nd round pick will be high also). I mean, that could translate into having 4 picks in the top 40 players next year. That's when your odds go way up that you are gonna find some players. Next year could be the learning year. Everybody gets used to each other, learns the new schemes, plays and all that jaz, super tough ass schedule. Then in 2010, with all those picks, you not only have all those picks but you have a better understanding of where your team is under McD.

Alright, done typing for a bit. I think I've expressed how I feel good enough :strong:

TheDave
03-06-2009, 07:35 PM
My vote is for Tyson Jackson, but with "Ike Turner" acting up again i wouldn't be a bit surprised if we took a reciever @ #12

Anaximines
03-06-2009, 07:53 PM
Right now my pick is Tyson Jackson or Malcolm Jenkins assuming that usual suspects end up in the top 11.

I've been thinking about these two guys too lately....

bap454
03-06-2009, 08:04 PM
My vote is for Tyson Jackson, but with "Ike Turner" acting up again i wouldn't be a bit surprised if we took a reciever @ #12

IKE TURNER!!!Hilarious!

baja
03-06-2009, 08:29 PM
Of course Mayo looked good. He was surrounded by solid players on a solid scheme with an offense that didn't force them on the field all day long. Put Mayo on the Bengals and you might have a different story. He's a solid player but he looked even better because of the team he was on.

Baja - trying to evaluate moving down is tough because you don't know who is going to want to move up. I think it will boil down to draft day because as it unfolds, their could be a player slip down to #12 that we don't have a need for but another team originally might have thought he was going to go higher and they might think moving up to #12 is doable where they might not have wanted to pay the price to move up to say #8.

But, moving down in itself alone isn't enough. Sure you pick up the extra pick(s) but you also have to still be targeting a guy you want and you have to try your best to evaluate the teams picking through #13 to where we would end up picking in the first. The player we may want most could be coveted by a team picking just right before where we would. But my thoughts for this draft are that there are so many good LB's available that even if we didn't get the guy we wanted most, I still think it's a good chance we could end up with one of those LB's in the lower first and getting the extra picks so I think it's a SAFE move down regardless.

I think a dream scenario (within reason) for the Broncos would be moving down to like #18 and picking up a high 2nd rounder. With #18 I would snag Jackson because I think DL players have more value on them then LB's do (generally speaking). To me it's tremendous value for the Broncos because Jackson is probably the best true NFL 3-4 DE in the draft and we really need one. Then, my hopes would be one of those top LB's falling to us in the high 2nd. Maybe Mathews, maybe Laraunitis. You're getting 2 good defensive players for probably close to the same contract you would have had to give #12.

There are a few other players you could plug into that scenario but I like the value better for us moving down far enough to pick up the high 2nd pick and adding more players to our needy defense.

And it's not just teams wanting to move up. You could have a situation where a team like Detroit goes ahead and snags Jason Smith with pick #1 and sees Sanchez there on the board and calls us and gives us their high 2nd round pick and a 2nd & 3rd round pick in 2010 and swaps 2010 1st rounders with us (probably would be terms in there that if they had a top 5 pick or we had a pick lower then #20 where they would then compensate us with a 2010 3rd and 4th, something like that). I still think we could land one of the great LB's in the 2nd this year and then next year we would be set. A high 1st rounder (top 10 probably), 2 second rounders and 2 third rounders. There's lots of cool scnearios you could do. Especially if you are willing to get picks in the following year. That's when they turn into high picks and not 4th and 5th rounders.

I like the two player for one idea (Hopefully we find a team willing to play) but I doubt the other scenario will happen. Our first year coach may be reluctant to trade for future picks even if they are as soon as next year. I agree we need all the picks on the field this season.BTW Nice take thanks.

Broncojef
03-06-2009, 08:42 PM
I say you would make a lousy GM if the way you think is to take a player at #12 who could be had at #20 and not even TRY to move down for sake of appearing to be "cute".

I don't think I have ever heard one GM or coach say they need to stop trying to get value in the draft. That's like saying we don't need to worry about how much we pay somebody we like. Just pay him.

I mean listen to what you are saying. Go ahead, say it back to yourself and see if it makes sense. You say there are are 4 or 5 studs at LB. I'm assuming you are talking about (Brown, Cushing, Mathews, Maualuga, Laurinaitis) because Curry and Orakpo will probably be gone. So with 5 stud LB's who will probably (most of them) be available when we pick, you just go ahead and take one with #12 knowing there will be at least 2 of them left around pick #20 just so you don't look cute? I sure hope you are talking to football fools around the water cooler at work dude because I would have spit my water out laughing all the way back to my desk.


What I'm saying is the whole draft crowd like yourself spend all day worrying if a guy will fall 3-4 spots and its worthless. Make your, mind up on who you really want Get the guy you want and stop out thinking yourself. I'd rather have 3 or 4 quality guys that I really believe in than the 20 picks some of you think we need to trade down and acquire every year with half of those picks never playing a down or mattering to the team. Guys like yourself would consider it a victory to end up with those 20 picks and I just don't get it.

Dedhed
03-06-2009, 08:42 PM
When you start worm-holing about value, you're over thinking the process. Just take the player who you think is going to help your team the most.

Maualuga is that guy for me. He's the most violent defender in this draft, and would bring exactly what this defense has lacked in recent years. I don't much care if he might be available at #20 or #25.

Broncojef
03-06-2009, 08:44 PM
When you start worm-holing about value, you're over thinking the process. Just take the player who you think is going to help your team the most.

Maualuga is that guy for me. He's the most violent defender in this draft, and would bring exactly what this defense has lacked in recent years. I don't much care if he might be available at #20 or #25.

My feelings exactly!!

Hercules Rockefeller
03-06-2009, 08:55 PM
How many mocks were by Internetz superstars who only think they have a ****ing clue about where players are valued?

baja
03-06-2009, 08:59 PM
My feelings exactly!!

If you can get the guy at 20 and have a way to get there with another high pick to boot you gotta do that.

I could see your point if there is only one special guy for the position but this year at LB that is just not the case. It is insane to pass up a high second to trade down, this would be low risk high reward situation .

Remember we never expected Royal to be as good as he is can you imagine another player of that caliber with a free high second. That's not called over thinking that's being a great GM.

I agree with Zona on this one.

baja
03-06-2009, 09:21 PM
I didn't get that anyone was complaining about the 12 pick just discussing options.

Pony Boy
03-06-2009, 10:37 PM
You have to say to yourself "WHAT WOULD THE PAT"S DO" ?
They would trade #12 for multiple value picks. Face it we are now in full New England mode.

Broncojef
03-06-2009, 10:47 PM
You have to say to yourself "WHAT WOULD THE PAT"S DO" ?
They would trade #12 for multiple value picks. Face it we are now in full New England mode.

New England also has a core of SB talent, our front 7 for the most part are unnamed marginal talent guys. At 12 we owe ourselves a future leader and an impact player. Maualuga is that guy IMO. After that focus on a couple of nice fat boys.

Pony Boy
03-06-2009, 10:56 PM
New England also has a core of SB talent, our front 7 for the most part are unnamed marginal talent guys. At 12 we owe ourselves a future leader and an impact player. Maualuga is that guy IMO. After that focus on a couple of nice fat boys.

I don't agree with trading the picks, I just think that's what this guy will do. I agree 100% "Maualuga" is the man and would a perfect pick here. We need someone who will deliver the killer blows.

NFLBRONCO
03-06-2009, 11:01 PM
I don't agree with trading the picks, I just think that's what this guy will do. I agree 100% "Maualuga" is the man and would a perfect pick here. We need someone who will deliver the killer blows.


Hasn't NE traded or traded down every draft recently? I agree with you I expect a trade down as well.

OrangeRising
03-06-2009, 11:05 PM
I'm just hoping Junior doesn't try to become the next Bill Belichick in one year by wheeling and dealing, and end up getting schooled by someone. The Broncos just have to many needs for McDaniels or Xanders to start playing the numbers game with the draft picks.

Pony Boy
03-06-2009, 11:15 PM
Hasn't NE traded or traded down every draft recently? I agree with you I expect a trade down as well.

You right NE won't pay out the money for a #12 pick. At the rate we are signing free agents we wont have enough money left to go after a #12.

enjolras
03-07-2009, 01:10 AM
I think moving the 12th pick is going to be VERY difficult unless Stafford falls out of the top ten (unlikely). On the surface this is a bad draft class, and everyone knows it.

baja
03-07-2009, 01:49 AM
I think moving the 12th pick is going to be VERY difficult unless Stafford falls out of the top ten (unlikely). On the surface this is a bad draft class, and everyone knows it.

Truethat!

Dedhed
03-07-2009, 05:00 AM
If you can get the guy at 20 and have a way to get there with another high pick to boot you gotta do that.

I could see your point if there is only one special guy for the position but this year at LB that is just not the case. It is insane to pass up a high second to trade down, this would be low risk high reward situation .

Remember we never expected Royal to be as good as he is can you imagine another player of that caliber with a free high second. That's not called over thinking that's being a great GM.

I agree with Zona on this one.
But unless you have the vision, you have no way of knowing whether your guy will be there. Let's say you trade back miss your guy and end up taking the next best player who is fine, but he doesn't fit into your system like the first guy does and ends up being just an average player where the other guy may have been a real difference maker on your team.

BTW, I'm picturing Maualuga and Laurinaitis in that scenario. Yeah, Laurinaitis may be a pretty similar talent to Maualuga, but I don't think he'll ever be the heart and soul of a defense. If we had a real emotional leader on defense, I might rate the two equally, but Maualuga has the ability to energize an entire team and that's exactly what the Broncos need moving into the future.

To me that's worth taking a guy a few picks before where Mel Kiper says his value lies, and I don't think it's worth the risk of missing out on that guy.

baja
03-07-2009, 08:49 AM
Dedhed,

Well you think Maualuga is that "special" player I talked of and if the Broncos view him as so than of course they should take him at 12 and be grateful. We are talking about different scenarios

Tombstone RJ
03-07-2009, 09:10 AM
I have reviewed every player in the 1st round on almost all mock drafts there are and tried to see how they would fit in with the Broncos and then take in account where we would draft them.

The draft is about 2 things. Getting a player you need and getting value.

I don't think you will see much movement in the top 5 slots. The teams slotted to pick there I think will stay because I don't think most teams will want to move up that high. So picks 6-15 I think is where alot of teams would like to be. I believe the Broncos will be contacted for a trade for that 12th pick and I think it makes the most sense based on what players I think will be there versus our teams needs.

When I look at all the players projected to go in the 1st round, these 14 guys below to me will surely go in the top 14. From 15-20 I think that's where it starts to get tricky and some surprises picks can show up.

QB Matt Stafford
LB, Aaron Curry
DT, B. J. Raji
DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Jason Smith
WR, Michael Crabtree
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

I have no doubts that Stafford, Raji, Curry, Smith and Crabtree will be the top 5 picks.

So that leaves these 9 guys at 6-14

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OT, Eugene Monroe
WR, Jeremy Maclin
OT, Michael Oher
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
TE, Brandon Pettigrew
DT, Peria Jerry

We don't need any OT's, WR's, or TE's. That would not be a value pick for us.

So that leaves these 5 players left who would give us the most value because we need to improve our defense.

DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo
OLB, Everette Brown
LB, Brian Cushing
CB, Vontae Davis
DT, Peria Jerry

But here is my big stink. I think with the 12th pick, none of these guys to me are a lock in our system and we already have some guys on our team that have skills similar.

Everette Brown - When looking at this strengths & weaknesses, he compares to Doom quite a bit. More suited for pass rush, decent against the run but struggles dropping back into coverage. Not the best value for us at #12 because we have somebody pretty close to that already.

Brian Cushing - Sure, we could use a LB like him no doubt. But with Laurinaitis, Maualuga, Mathews and Barwin who are so very close in talent and physical ability that can be had at a much lower pick, again, we lose the value picking any of these guys at #12.

Brian Orakpo - This pick would kinda scare me. It's said he isn't the most gifted athelete and truly doesn't do any one thing great. But instead is a solid player in alot of areas. We drafted a DE from Texas not long ago with those same tags on him and Crowder has showed us that review of him was dead on. To me, not so much about value here but not sure taking a risk on a guy with not much upside in terms of him already peaking physically would be a smart move at #12.

Peria Jerry - I can't help but think he is a slightly bigger version of Marcus Thomas. Not a true run plugging strong NT but instead more of a penetrating NT who depends more on hands, speed and moves then he does pure brute size and strength. If we can't move down, I could live with this pick because I think he would handle the NT better then anybody we have but the value isn't great here because he isn't the "type" of NT we are looking for and the fact Thomas is somewhat close to the same type of player, value is a little shady at #12.

Vontae Davis - Fast, great cover guy, doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses to his game. With a dominant CB on our team already, again, having 2 seems a little overkill when you have so much need on the DL. A solid player who I think will be a great player soon in the NFL, his value for us would be okay. Not what we would prefer, but okay.


So to me, the value truly is in moving down because then we would get additional picks to help build depth and it would allow us to pick up a player close to these top guys lower in the 1st.

I think the top 2 guys on my board for value to this team if we had to stay at 12 and the 5 guys just above were available, I would have to say Davis and Perry would be our best choices and provide us the best VALUE at #12.

excellent post Zona. I say trade up or down if your the Broncos. Your premis is spot on, getting value and production at #12 is hard for the Broncos based on their needs.

No way Cushing is worth the #12 pick. Not with all the other LBer talent floating around the first round.

So, what about a DT? Yah, the Broncos need one, but aside from Raji, why possibly waste a pick on a prospect similar to what the Broncos already have on a roster?

My only caveat with your post is at WR. With Marshal being an idiot, I can see the #2 best WR taken at 12.

gyldenlove
03-07-2009, 09:42 AM
I think moving the 12th pick is going to be VERY difficult unless Stafford falls out of the top ten (unlikely). On the surface this is a bad draft class, and everyone knows it.

The only way we can realisticly move the 12th pick is if an OT or Sanchez falls. The Redskins could be looking for an OT and the Jets, Bears and Bucs are all looking for QB, so it is not unfeasable that a team with a need for OT could jump ahead of the Redskins to pick up a good one or that one of the 3 QB teams or even Detroit at 20 would move up to pick up a falling QB ahead of the pack.

I think the best thing that could happen is that Oher and Andre Smith both jump up the charts so we end up with 4 OTs at least in the top 12, 2 QBs, Curry, Crabtree, Orakpo, Brown and Jenkins/Maclin, that would leave Raji nicely at number 12.

Dedhed
03-07-2009, 02:55 PM
Dedhed,

Well you think Maualuga is that "special" player I talked of and if the Broncos view him as so than of course they should take him at 12 and be grateful. We are talking about different scenarios
I understand that, and let's face it, what I think about specific players is of no use in this discussion. I just think the draft is too much of a crap shoot anyway to add in trying to trade back to get better value for a guy you like.

I think there is something to say for trading back if there isn't anyone you really like, but if there's a guy at #12 who the Broncos think can make an immediate impact they should take him regardless of whether he may last into the 20s.

ZONA
03-07-2009, 05:11 PM
I understand that, and let's face it, what I think about specific players is of no use in this discussion. I just think the draft is too much of a crap shoot anyway to add in trying to trade back to get better value for a guy you like.

I think there is something to say for trading back if there isn't anyone you really like, but if there's a guy at #12 who the Broncos think can make an immediate impact they should take him regardless of whether he may last into the 20s.

The original post laid it out quite nicely. More then likely we will be drafting on the defensive side of the ball first. I think we all can agree we are not using our first round pick on a OT, OG, C, QB, RB, TE or WR. Not with all the holes on defense to fill. Taking an offensive player in the first round is suicide. Some of you may think with the recent Marshall problems that a WR could be possible but that it the one offensive position that has more bust player in the 1st round then any. Not a smart move in my book.

I think we all realize how important it is for us to build a better front 7 and would like to focus our pics there, but a top rated CB might be in the discussion also.

Okay man, so you like Rey. No big deal. He could turn out to be a great player. But I just don't think he's going to be light years ahead of Cushing, Mathews or Laruanitis. Nothing tells me he is that much better, if at all, then the other LB's. His tape, his stats, his measurables. They are all close. So if I can trade #12 and get a high 2nd, you are damn right I am gonna do it. We will still land 2 great defensive players with those picks and I know at least one of them will be one of those great LB's, if not two of them.

I mean, it could very well end up where we trade #12 and move to #18 and draft Maualuga there and who knows, maybe somebody like Brace is there at say #38 (our extra pick from moving out of #12). You can't deny getting that extra player would really help out this defense. You say it's a gamble but what I'm trying to tell you is that the risk is low because there are so many good LB's this year. We're going to get one of them AND another defensive player we like to boot.

Now if we can't move, and they like Maualuga that much, then you gotta do what you gotta do. But my buck says that McD is going to try to move down.

rastaman
03-08-2009, 05:18 AM
The Broncos need a guy that can get pressure on the QB, either at a DL spot or an OLB spot if in a 3-4 defense. To me, that's the biggest need.

If going with a 3-4, if Dumervil stays, which is a big if, they need another rusher on the other side. The best 3-4 defenses have 2 OLB's that give the OL trouble in the passing game.

I think this is why Denver needs to move up and draft Aron Curry. He gives you that extra deminsion of a LB that can provide the pass rush and run support required from LB's in a 3-4 defense.