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View Full Version : Football Outsiders "Speed Score": Denver has THREE potentially elite RBs.


Hallside
02-26-2009, 07:27 PM
Football Outsiders has a good article on a metric they call the "speed score" which they explain in this article: http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2009/speed-score-2009

From the article: "Speed score (explained in detail in PFP 2008 and in this 2008 article) takes into account each player's 40 time and weight to produce a number scaled around 100; the average speed score for a drafted back is 102.4, a number which rises to 111.1 for backs taken in the first round. The formula -- (Weight x 200)/(40-yard^4) -- adjusts the minuscule differences in 40 times from player-to-player by accounting for the weight each player has to lug around on his 40-yard dash. The result is a metric that has a stronger correlation to NFL performance on a one-year, three-year or five-year stretch than any other combine drill, including the standard 40-yard dash.

Last year, speed score pegged Chris Johnson (121.9) as the best back in the class, with Darren McFadden (120.0) and Jonathan Stewart (116.7) shortly behind. It predicted Matt Forte' (109.7) to be a sleeper, while believing that Ray Rice (99.8), Kevin Smith (98.6) and Steve Slaton (96.9) would struggle. Speed score is certainly not a foolproof indicator, but as you can see from that level of performance, it can be a useful one."



Anyway, in case you were wondering, here are the speed scores of some RBs on Denver's roster:

Peyton Hillis (240 lbs., 4.57 s): 110.05

Andre Hall (208 lbs., 4.42 s): 108.99

Ryan Torain (222 lbs., 4.51 s): 107.32

Anthony Alridge [just for fun] (170 lbs., 4.33 s): 96.72

Selvin Young (207 lbs., 4.58 s): 94.09

According to this powerful metric, we have three RBs on our roster with the measurables commensurate with a first round pick.

I'm expecting big things out of Hillis, Torain, and Hall.

If only we can stay healthy...

Historical combine stats from:
http://900footballlinks.net/broncos.htm
http://900footballlinks.net/bucs.htm

vancejohnson82
02-26-2009, 07:34 PM
interesting...i usually get a lot out of Football Outsiders stuff

nice

Broncos_OTM
02-26-2009, 07:34 PM
it's kinda funny how alot of people dont like hillis. their was a video of Hillis taking a run 65 yards against the LSU defense. and same thing with wells. same length of run same LSU defense. I think we got our Wells in Hillis.

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at 2:10

BABronco
02-26-2009, 07:42 PM
I think it would be a crying shame if Hillis wasnt given a legit shot at starter next season. He is a great runner and he plays with more heart than ive ever seen a pro play with.

vancejohnson82
02-26-2009, 07:52 PM
I think it would be a crying shame if Hillis wasnt given a legit shot at starter next season. He is a great runner and he plays with more heart than ive ever seen a pro play with.

yea, he was impressive...i was at the Jets game and in that weather, the way he ran, i was extremely impressed...he's the kind of guy that energizes an offense when he touches the ball and even when he's out there blocking and pumping guys up...GIVE HIM A SHOT

Sassy
02-26-2009, 07:53 PM
I love Hillis...
(Sassy #22!)

Dedhed
02-26-2009, 08:23 PM
I liked Hillis as a FB in Shanahan's system, but his potential went through the roof when McDaniels came on board. He's the perfect back for a single back set that places a premium on either blocking or receiving on any given play.

McDaniels offense requires a back that can:
1-Catch the ball out of the backfield.
2-help in pass protection.
3-Pick up tough yards running the football.

Hillis's skill set matches up tremendously well with those requirements. He has amazing potential in this system.

Sassy
02-26-2009, 08:24 PM
THe only game the Broncos seemed fired up...was the game Hillis played.

bronco militia
02-26-2009, 08:39 PM
I love hillis, but he's not even close to being an elite player.

throwing in hall and torrian's name into the mix does little support this statement

Hallside
02-26-2009, 08:43 PM
I love hillis, but he's not even close to being an elite player.

throwing in hall and torrian's name into the mix does little support this statement

"Elite" was a strong word perhaps, but I'm allowed to sensationalize in the thread title a bit and I obviously didn't mean it in the HOF sense.

What it does mean, however, is that we have three RBs whose measurables are in the range of what you'd expect in the first round of the NFL draft. I promise you most teams do not have three RBs with speed scores like this.

BroncoMan4ever
02-26-2009, 08:56 PM
too bad Torain is made of glass, and Hall sucks. but at least we will have Hillis and the guy we draft

epicSocialism4tw
02-26-2009, 09:00 PM
I like that Hillis brings fire and grit to the field. He wants the ball and wants to pound somebody.

We need those types of players in a bad way.

tsiguy96
02-26-2009, 09:15 PM
I love hillis, but he's not even close to being an elite player.

throwing in hall and torrian's name into the mix does little support this statement

how many "elite" players are there in the NFL? how many do the broncos have? so now the broncos RB must be "elite" to even be on the team?

he picks up the tough yards and has deceptive speed in the secondary. perfect match for single back/spread formation and he can receive with the best of them as well.

Taco John
02-26-2009, 09:15 PM
I love Hillis.

The idea that Hall or Torain are elite is pretty good for a laugh.

DBroncos4life
02-26-2009, 09:23 PM
how many "elite" players are there in the NFL? how many do the broncos have? so now the broncos RB must be "elite" to even be on the team?

he picks up the tough yards and has deceptive speed in the secondary. perfect match for single back/spread formation and he can receive with the best of them as well.

AP is "elite" pretty sure there won't be anyone mistaking Hillis and AP anytime soon.
Odds seem to good that Hillis could be a productive for us but I doubt he comes close to ever being "elite".

Hallside
02-26-2009, 09:28 PM
Jesus Christ, drop the bitching about the word "elite."

Clearly it's a bit of thread title sensationalism and I obviously don't mean it in the all-pro or HOF sense.

Moreover, they are elite (very high end) young RBs according to this specific metric, which is exactly what the thread title says, nothing less and certainly nothing more.

bpc
02-26-2009, 09:34 PM
Really, who doesn't like Hillis? Smack them folk over the head.

The guy is a stud. If McDaniels can do one very important thing with Jay, it's to teach him how to use the short passing game to improve his efficiency, open up the long ball and the running game.

If Jay can do that, Hillis could be a huge stud as a starting HB. With his hands and toughness, he could be a 1200 yd rusher with 400 or 500 yd receiving. That isn't anything to scoff at.

tsiguy96
02-26-2009, 09:41 PM
AP is "elite" pretty sure there won't be anyone mistaking Hillis and AP anytime soon.
Odds seem to good that Hillis could be a productive for us but I doubt he comes close to ever being "elite".

thats exactly my point. we have a super productive RB who could be killer in the flats too, why is everyone so worried about replacing him?

cutthemdown
02-26-2009, 09:42 PM
when they say elite it means in terms of size speed ratios for pro rbs. All these guys at this point are elite athletes it's just pro football is really hard.

People who haven't played football have no idea how hard it is to play it well. Those of us who played a little when we were kids have no idea what college ball is like let alone the pros.

What those numbers tell me is if healthy Torrain has a shot to compete, Hillis as well.

With Hall I sort of thought when I watched him he seemed a little stiff and lacked wiggle but I guess him as well.

IMO though Broncos would still be wise to keep with the theory of adding a young runner every yr or even looking for a more proven one like Ward.

I think though everyone can agree Hillis has a spot on the team whether or not he's the every down RB. Torrain and Hall I'm not so sure about but maybe.

One thing though...Rbs in Mcdaniels system catch a lot of balls. Hillis has proven he does that well. Hall and Torain? Did they do that well in college? I don't follow college enough to know so i will leave that to someone else.

I do know Pats churned out about 1000 yrds a yr in recieving yrdage to RBS.

cutthemdown
02-26-2009, 09:45 PM
thats exactly my point. we have a super productive RB who could be killer in the flats too, why is everyone so worried about replacing him?

One thing I liked when Hillis was playing, and Graham started to be part of the passing game, was how physical Broncos looked. With Marshall dwarfing dback, Graham like a running olineman, and Hillis running into people full speed head down, Broncos were scary big.

Broncojef
02-26-2009, 09:47 PM
Maybe with the new regime guys will actually play their designed position. I'm tired of seeing TE's converted to OT etc. Hillis is the only FB I'm excited about. Say what you want about Hall and Torrain but they come up way short on any serious starting RB talk for me. Do me a favor McD if they are first round talent please trade them now and bring in someone who can play the entire season, be durable and consistent.

lostknight
02-26-2009, 10:07 PM
THe only game the Broncos seemed fired up...was the game Hillis played.


The only?

As I recall, he energized every game he started in, from Miami on.

DBroncos4life
02-26-2009, 10:10 PM
thats exactly my point. we have a super productive RB who could be killer in the flats too, why is everyone so worried about replacing him?

Because its possible that he won't be good.

lostknight
02-26-2009, 10:11 PM
One more note, looking at the 2009 scores, Peyton is better then any RB in the draft this year. He's got a better RB coach, and "the best hand I have ever seen" according to the man formally known as Goodman.

Shanahan underutilized him. I don't think McDaniels will make the same mistake.

tsiguy96
02-26-2009, 10:19 PM
Because its possible that he won't be good.

he has ALREADY been good, you think hes gonna get worse?

he came in after 1 week of practicing at RB and killed it for 5 weeks (not so much oakland because bates was too busy playing madden ball, but still)

after an entire offseason hes gonna be damn good.

footstepsfrom#27
02-26-2009, 10:21 PM
What did cooked crack score?

Broncojef
02-26-2009, 10:25 PM
Hillis is a FB, the reason he looked so good is we have had marginal talent at best there ever since Portis's departure because Shanahan was certain he could get average guys to be productive. A stud RB behind Hillis would set this offense totally off. Hillis can still get his carries and passes out of the backfield but a true talented back, that can stay healthy would give us the offense everyone has dreamed about since Griffith and TD departed the scene.

tsiguy96
02-26-2009, 10:28 PM
Hillis is a FB, the reason he looked so good is we have had marginal talent at best there ever since Portis's departure because Shanahan was certain he could get average guys to be productive. A stud RB behind Hillis would set this offense totally off. Hillis can still get his carries and passes out of the backfield but a true talented back, that can stay healthy would give us the offense everyone has dreamed about since Griffith and TD departed the scene.

why is he a FB and not a RB?

what makes you say that, besides the fact thats what he got stuck with in college?

keep in mind shanahan is gone, running game wont be the same regardless of whos coaching them. mcdaniels offense is a spread single back formation, which means no FB. should he be on the bench?

mhgaffney
02-26-2009, 10:47 PM
What is amazing is we got him in the 7th round.

It proves there is quality on the second day. Let us hope McDaniel does the scouting work needed to find several more gems this year.
MHG

Broncojef
02-26-2009, 10:56 PM
why is he a FB and not a RB?

what makes you say that, besides the fact thats what he got stuck with in college?

keep in mind shanahan is gone, running game wont be the same regardless of whos coaching them. mcdaniels offense is a spread single back formation, which means no FB. should he be on the bench?

I said he should be our FB not on the bench. Find some tough nose runningbacks to follow Hillis as our power fullback and we'll start having some success consistently from the running game. I love Hillis just don't think his bruising style lends well to 16 game health as a RB.

Houshyamama
02-26-2009, 10:59 PM
Hillis is a great route runner and can block.

As mentioned before he can get the tough yardage.

He is a PERFECT fit for McDaniels, barring injury he's going to have a HUGE year.

BroncoMan4ever
02-26-2009, 11:19 PM
One more note, looking at the 2009 scores, Peyton is better then any RB in the draft this year. He's got a better RB coach, and "the best hand I have ever seen" according to the man formally known as Goodman.

Shanahan underutilized him. I don't think McDaniels will make the same mistake.

i am thinking the signings of Arrington and Buckhalter mean McDaniels has no faith in Torain coming back healthy, and has decided he will make Hillis our starter, Arrington our 3rd down back and Buckhalter a backup to Hillis

tsiguy96
02-26-2009, 11:23 PM
I said he should be our FB not on the bench. Find some tough nose runningbacks to follow Hillis as our power fullback and we'll start having some success consistently from the running game. I love Hillis just don't think his bruising style lends well to 16 game health as a RB.

again, mcdaniels runs a spread singleback way more often then not, which means hillis will be on the bench. how is that good?

Bronco Yoda
02-27-2009, 02:02 AM
I love Hillis.

The idea that Hall or Torain are elite is pretty good for a laugh.

So, you've finally changed your tune?

Guess I'm not the only Hillis fanboy now then?

slyinky
02-27-2009, 02:46 AM
Football Outsiders has a good article on a metric they call the "speed score" which they explain in this article: http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2009/speed-score-2009

the average speed score for a drafted back is 102.4, a number which rises to 111.1 for backs taken in the first round.



Anyway, in case you were wondering, here are the speed scores of some RBs on Denver's roster:

Peyton Hillis (240 lbs., 4.57 s): 110.05

Andre Hall (208 lbs., 4.42 s): 108.99

Ryan Torain (222 lbs., 4.51 s): 107.32

Anthony Alridge [just for fun] (170 lbs., 4.33 s): 96.72

Selvin Young (207 lbs., 4.58 s): 94.09

According to this powerful metric, we have three RBs on our roster with the measurables commensurate with a first round pick.
Where exactly are you getting that "we have three RBs on our roster with the measurables commensurate with a first round pick" ?

dbfan21
02-27-2009, 07:09 AM
If only Andre Hall could hold on to the ball....:oyvey:

Hallside
02-27-2009, 09:14 AM
Where exactly are you getting that "we have three RBs on our roster with the measurables commensurate with a first round pick" ?

Are you kidding me? It's because 1-4 points difference is almost no variance at all and because 111 is just an average of previous first rounders, not a hard and fast cutoff point. Torain, for example, would be at 111 if he gained 3 lbs and shaved 0.03 off of his 40 time. We're talking about differences that are a challenge even to measure accurately.

Hillis, Torain and Hall all have speed scores in the range that you would expect from a 1st round RB.

Kaylore
02-27-2009, 09:26 AM
If only Andre Hall could hold on to the ball....:oyvey:

That was the single most annoying thing about that Patriots game. He fumbles twice within a few carries, and both were preventable.

MagicHef
02-27-2009, 09:31 AM
That was the single most annoying thing about that Patriots game. He fumbles twice within a few carries, and both were preventable.

I liked the way that he was put on IR with a hand injury right after the game, which he didn't seem to sustain in that game. If his hand was so injured that he couldn't hold onto the ball, maybe he shouldn't have been returning kicks.

slyinky
03-01-2009, 06:53 AM
Are you kidding me? It's because 1-4 points difference is almost no variance at all and because 111 is just an average of previous first rounders, not a hard and fast cutoff point. Torain, for example, would be at 111 if he gained 3 lbs and shaved 0.03 off of his 40 time. We're talking about differences that are a challenge even to measure accurately.

Hillis, Torain and Hall all have speed scores in the range that you would expect from a 1st round RB.
Wow, thanks for my first ever negative rep. I'm sooo crushed. :Whaaaa!:















Actually I'm just kidding. I couldn't care less. _i_O_i_ :loser:

elsid13
03-01-2009, 07:05 AM
why is he a FB and not a RB?

what makes you say that, besides the fact thats what he got stuck with in college?

keep in mind shanahan is gone, running game wont be the same regardless of whos coaching them. mcdaniels offense is a spread single back formation, which means no FB. should he be on the bench?

My problem with Hillis that he doesn't have the speed to attempt to attack the edge of the formation. Most of his good runs were the result of good blocking and him running dive plays. When teams have enough film on him the will shift the defense to stop those plays. The couple of the big run he had to the outside was result of the defense already cheating inside and Clady making a very good block to seal both the DE/LB.

I expect will we see Hillis in Evan type of role, some short line carries, some H-Back and some FB responsibilities.

Jesterhole
03-01-2009, 07:05 AM
The problem is getting any kind of accurate 40 time in the first place. Athletes train for that one drill alone like no other. TD ran a 4.7 40 at the combine coming out. What kind of score does that give him?

slyinky
03-02-2009, 02:30 AM
Are you kidding me? It's because 1-4 points difference is almost no variance at all and because 111 is just an average of previous first rounders, not a hard and fast cutoff point. Torain, for example, would be at 111 if he gained 3 lbs and shaved 0.03 off of his 40 time. We're talking about differences that are a challenge even to measure accurately.

Hillis, Torain and Hall all have speed scores in the range that you would expect from a 1st round RB.

Sorry to inform you but Torain would have to shave off a little more than 0.03 off his 40 considering he ran a 4.61 not 4.51. Might want to get your facts straight. ;)

Let's see. Where is Torain? Oh, there he is. Right ahead of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

http://blog.nj.com/eagles/2008/04/large_RB%20Analysis.png

Even if you weren't wrong and Torain did have a speed score of 107.32, that would mean 10 RB's last year had "measurables commensurate with a first round pick." Uhh

So, go ahead and give me my third negative rep. I want to see how many I can collect from you. ROFL!

(What, exactly, is rep for anyway?)