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View Full Version : Anyone interested in trading back up into the 1st?


montrose
02-24-2009, 11:43 AM
I've been advocate of picking up another Day 1 pick (essentially a 2nd rounder) by either moving down in Round 1 or moving assets that may not fit the new scheme such as Elvis Dumervil.

With much discussion of so many guys who can help our defense that has many holes, and some of those guys being projected as reaches at #12 - what are your guys thoughts on moving back up into the bottom of round 1 for two 1st round picks? I don't want to sacrifice our 2nd day picks but I'd be willing to use some combination of our 2nd, picks next year and assets such as Dumervil to try and move back into 1st round.

It would take us out of the Clay Matthews/Ron Brace 2nd round mix but I'd love the chance to grab a guy like Malcolm Jenkins (who NFLN is now projecting as a possible Pro Bowl caliber FS), Maualuga or one of the pass rushers at #12 and then pickup a Tyson Jackson or Brian Cushing as well. Yeah I know I'm dreaming here but just wanted to pose the thought.

kdissette
02-24-2009, 11:48 AM
i would rather swing a trade with philly and trade back in the 1st and get lito sheppard and possibly an extra 3rd rd pk

Kaylore
02-24-2009, 11:58 AM
It would depend on who we got and what we gave up. I'd rather keep my picks and go BPA.

gyldenlove
02-24-2009, 12:14 PM
It would depend on who we got and what we gave up. I'd rather keep my picks and go BPA.

I agree with that, trades are very unpredictable and unless you have a clear idea of what you want and what you have to give up to get it you often end up giving up value for nothing.

montrose
02-24-2009, 12:18 PM
It would depend on who we got and what we gave up. I'd rather keep my picks and go BPA.

I don't want to give up extra picks this year, but if the opportunity was there to move a guy like Dumervil and a 2010 pick to move up from #48 to land Tyson Jackson or Brian Cushing and compliment our #12 pick, I'd be all over it. It would really allow us to go BPA at #12 (which might be Jenkins realistically) without feeling guilty for not addressing the front-7 in round 1.

I'll admit that a lot of this is based on my new man-crushes on Jackson (because you've got to build from the inside-out and he's a stud, natural 3-4 DE), Jenkins (a guy who Mayock believes could be a Pro Bowl FS as a rookie and is ranked in top 7-8 of nearly every overall board I see) and Cushing (who I think is going to be a really solid, safe, versatile SOLB in a 3-4 defense).

socalorado
02-24-2009, 12:23 PM
i would rather swing a trade with philly and trade back in the 1st and get lito sheppard and possibly an extra 3rd rd pk

KDs onto something here. I like this
PHIL TRADES LITO SHEPPARD AND #21 TO DEN FOR #12

Now thats a solid deal. Get Cushing at #21

cmhargrove
02-24-2009, 12:23 PM
I don't feel really good about watching Elvis trying to drop into zone coverage, but he really, really is good at rushing the passer. I think the defensive scheme last year really sucked, and when he was in an obvious passing situation, he was generally held or double teamed.

Don't give up on Elvis yet. Keep the picks.

I would trade next year's second rounder for another second this year in a heartbeat. We need to start developing as many good players as we can, and borrowing from next year's second wouldn't be a bad thing.

Forget all the player trade stuff, just flat up trade next year's second rounder for another one this year. Get us another starter this year.

PRBronco
02-24-2009, 01:11 PM
KDs onto something here. I like this
PHIL TRADES LITO SHEPPARD AND #21 TO DEN FOR #12

Now thats a solid deal. Get Cushing at #21

Yessss shut down cornars and a linebacker with more athleticism than production?

Maybe we should spend our free agency money on veteran safeties who have lost a step too!

BroncoMan4ever
02-24-2009, 01:12 PM
why are you so ready to dump Doom? he is probably the only DE who will be able to make the transition to OLB.

i would be willing to bet he is in for a good year not having to play face-to-face with the LT every play.

socalorado
02-24-2009, 01:38 PM
Yessss shut down cornars and a linebacker with more athleticism than production?

Maybe we should spend our free agency money on veteran safeties who have lost a step too!

Hilarious!

montrose
02-24-2009, 02:14 PM
why are you so ready to dump Doom? he is probably the only DE who will be able to make the transition to OLB.

i would be willing to bet he is in for a good year not having to play face-to-face with the LT every play.

Two Reasons:

1) I highly doubt he's in the team's long-term plans. The guy has never played the WOLB position before and while we may be in a hybrid this season, the goal is to eventually move to a 3-4. He's shown the ability to do nothing more than rush the passer and while Nolan's past 30-fronts have generally used the WOLB as an exclusive pass rusher - the "Patriot Way" McDaniels is bringing in is to find versatile players that can fit many schemes. I recently posted the notion of comparing him to James Harrison (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=76839), however after re-watching him last season, he's not a complete player and just doesn't have the necessarily skills to be an every-down WOLB on a good 3-4 defense. Dumervil isn't a great tackler, has limited experience playing in space (and those experiences haven't been pretty) and has shown to be a guy who wears down when he's attacked. You can be certain that if he's playing the WOLB spot, teams will attack him with Off Tackle runs, sweeps and pulling guards. Not only is he easily worn down in the running game, he doesn't have very good technique in containing the outside run which is important for a WOLB (Jarvis is actually pretty underrated at this). Elvis is a 4-3 situational pass rusher. That's what he is, that doesn't mean he couldn't have some success as a 3rd down WOLB, but I imagine that at an incredibly important position on a rebuilding defense - the Broncos are going to want a guy to man that position full-time naturally. It could be Dumervil but I greatly doubt it for the reasons listed above. It could even be Jarvis or a 1st rounder like Orakpo, Brown or Maybin. In the long run, however, Elvis isn't going to be here. He may stick around until he's a FA but then he's going to bolt for a 4-3 team that will pay him admirably as a situational pass rusher. Considering we're rebuilding now, I just assume we move him and get some value while letting someone who has the chance to be "the guy" get experience now.

2) He's arguably our most tradable asset. Still relatively young at 25 years old, Dumervil is a pass rusher - one of the most sought after commodities in football. Furthermore, he's a situational pass rusher (to every team other than Denver that idiotically decided to make him an every down DL) which means his cost is less than a guy like Jared Allen or Julius Peppers. Since he's not an every down player, you could get him for a conditional mid-round pick and hopefully land 8-12 sacks out of him as a 3rd down rusher at only $530k for the season. Then, he's a RFA who can be tendered at his original round compensation and you either get him for another year at a budget-friendly $1 million or recoup the mid-rounder you got for him from another. If you really want to keep him , just tender him at a 2nd round level that no one will match and bring him back at $1.5 million. For a team acquiring him, it's a really nice bargain for a good, situational, 4-3 pass rusher. For the Broncos he's the one guy they'd be willing to move who could net a mid-round pick or help them move up in a given round.

Let me make something clear. I like Elvis, I like him a lot. My frustration was with the coaching staff not using him correctly and some posters on the Mane (previous to this season) completely overrating the guy and putting him in the category of top NFL pass-rushers. I brought up trading him a year ago and received some interesting feedback (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=66752). I think we waited a year too late and could've gotten much more value for him then. If we don't trade him now, we won't get anything for him. Barring me being completely wrong and Elvis becoming a monster pass-rusher as an WOLB, we'll be looking at tagging him with original round compensation which I doubt is matched and then he comes back for another season as a backup and is let go, or we don't even tender the guy next season and he leaves. We should've moved on him a year ago, I don't think we should make the same mistake again.

yerner
02-24-2009, 02:35 PM
why does anyone assume philly wants to trade up? they are normally always a team that tries to trade down.

Mediator12
02-24-2009, 02:41 PM
why does anyone assume philly wants to trade up? they are normally always a team that tries to trade down.

Because they are in the market for an elite OT and they are not in position @ 20 to get one of the top 4, let alone top 3. That team has issues on the OL with age and Free agency and Andy Reid likes the big guys up front.

I did a mock for PHI last year and researched their draft style. They will move around the draft to get their type of player, they moved to get Sheppard and Brown a few years ago. So, they will move if necessary.

montrose
02-24-2009, 02:42 PM
why does anyone assume philly wants to trade up? they are normally always a team that tries to trade down.

You're exactly correct, I stated this earlier. They actually have two 1st rounders this year as well. I suppose some of us are speculating they'd be interested in a move up because Michael Crabtree would be a great fit for them and they have a CB they want to move in Lito Shepherd. Perhaps if Crabtree fell to #12 they'd be interested in hopping division foe Washington to grab him. However, considering Washington took Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly last year, still has Santana Moss under contract and I believe just restructured Antwan Randel El's deal - I'm not so sure they'd take Crabtree either.

Philly would be in the market for one of the OT's if they fell, and that is something Washington would be interested in. Didn't Philly draft and develop Winston Justice not that long ago? What happened there?

On a side note, the backlash on Lito Shepherd here would be incredible considering the burn Dre' Bly got. You think Bly was a bad #2 CB? Wait till you take Gamblin' Lito who still found a way to get beat relatively often with the perennially ferrous Eagles rush and put him on this defense.

socalorado
02-24-2009, 02:44 PM
why does anyone assume philly wants to trade up? they are normally always a team that tries to trade down.

PHIL has some difficult needs to fill. they still need to get a quality OT, which are hard to find inthe lower part of round 1, and they need another WR, as of right now. Of course if they get Boldin or Housh that changes things, but PHIL is a team on the verge of being somewhat over the hill at specific positions.
OT
S
WR
are pretty big needs as of right now. Westbrook isnt getting any younger either.

UberBroncoMan
02-24-2009, 04:13 PM
I believe our #1 is worth Phily's 1st + their 2nd...

They also have 2 1st round picks so, perhaps we could get that done.

Then we could get Ron Brace with our new lower end 1st and Philly could use what we gave them to get a stud WR.

Then hopefully with our 2nd rounder we'd get Jarron Gilbert and then the other 2nd we could get a solid backfield prospect... sure would be nice if Sean Smith lasted that long... doubt it though.

BroncoMan4ever
02-24-2009, 04:50 PM
Since he's not an every down player, you could get him for a conditional mid-round pick and hopefully land 8-12 sacks out of him as a 3rd down rusher at only $530k for the season.

those were both really valid reasons, but, if we trade him, it shouldn't be for conditional picks. if he is used properly how he should be, and not as a starter how we have used him the last few years, he is easily a guy who will go out and get 12 sacks a year as a situational pass rusher.

with his skills alone, a 2nd rounder this year for him from a team that already has a pair of good starting DE's but need another pass rusher would not be out of the question.

my thinking is, outside of him, we have no one on the roster who has shown any ability to get to the QB. if we go with Nolan's Defense and use the WOLB as a pass rusher only he will be really good at it. and i think we will use Nolan's defensive strategy because i doubt Nolan would have taken a job where McDaniels is going to make him follow his defensive ideas.

add in good coaching and i am sure his tackling and his general techniques will improve and make him a complete OLB.

i would bet on Doom becoming a Pro Bowl WOLB over betting on Moss becoming a solid contributor to this or any team in the league.

BroncoMan4ever
02-24-2009, 04:54 PM
I believe our #1 is worth Phily's 1st + their 2nd...

They also have 2 1st round picks so, perhaps we could get that done.

Then we could get Ron Brace with our new lower end 1st and Philly could use what we gave them to get a stud WR.

Then hopefully with our 2nd rounder we'd get Jarron Gilbert and then the other 2nd we could get a solid backfield prospect... sure would be nice if Sean Smith lasted that long... doubt it though.

i say we try to trade our 1st and a 3rd and aquire both of Philadelphia's 1st rounders and get Cushing and Tyson Jackson in the 1st, Chung in the 2nd and then Rashard Jennings with our remaining 3rd

we immediately upgrade our front 7 with 2 guys who should start in Denver immediately, our secondary is upgraded, and we finally get our workhorse RB and balance out the offense.

Breaker
02-24-2009, 04:55 PM
It is absolutely insane that people still insist on trading down to pick up more picks when all the available evidence points to sacrificing lower end picks to MOVE UP and take a higher rated player. Here is a list of Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers taken in every round since the 1977 season.

Rd

1. 330
2. 153
3. 93
4. 45
5. 49
6. 43
7. 30
8. 19
9. 9
10. 10
11. 2
12. 7
Undrafted: 28

Now I realize this only shows HOF and PB but the evidence is very real that you should use lower end draft picks to move up to a higher round. This gives you a better chance at not only a HOF but a PB as well.

Individuals who constantly advocate dropping down and picking up an extra pick or two simply do not look at the statistics of quality players and where they are taken. Yes, 1st round busts are going to be more costly, however you have a greater chance of missing lower in the draft, that is why they are there in the first place.

I am sorry but with 10 draft picks we do not need any more picks, we need quality players that will turn into something rather than wasting low end draft picks on people that will never amount to anything.

mattob14
02-24-2009, 05:32 PM
With our defensive needs this year, we need to pick up as many picks from the last 3rd of the 1st round through the 2nd round. I can see players like Barwin, Matthews, Sintim, Jackson, Gilbert, Hood, Maualuga, Delmas, Moore, Chung, and Smith all going in that range, along with some solid RB's and the top C prospects. I don't see a big difference in talent between that group and the group that should be available at #12.

I'd be all for moving #12 and our 3rd for Philly's 2 firsts, then possibly moving Doom and our 4th for another mid-late 2nd. With those 4 picks, we could potentially add:

#21- Tyson Jackson
#28- Rey Maualuga- After his 40-time at the combine and hamstring injury, I believe he'll be around at the bottom of round 1
Round 2- Connor Barwin
Round 2b- Patrick Chung

That would address holes at all levels of our D and provide value with each of those picks. If that supplemented a FA class with some solid veterans like Wright, Fields, Bartell, and Sanders/Wilson at Safety, we'd have the makings of a very solid D.

mattob14
02-24-2009, 05:43 PM
It is absolutely insane that people still insist on trading down to pick up more picks when all the available evidence points to sacrificing lower end picks to MOVE UP and take a higher rated player. Here is a list of Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers taken in every round since the 1977 season.

Rd

1. 330
2. 153
3. 93
4. 45
5. 49
6. 43
7. 30
8. 19
9. 9
10. 10
11. 2
12. 7
Undrafted: 28

Now I realize this only shows HOF and PB but the evidence is very real that you should use lower end draft picks to move up to a higher round. This gives you a better chance at not only a HOF but a PB as well.

Individuals who constantly advocate dropping down and picking up an extra pick or two simply do not look at the statistics of quality players and where they are taken. Yes, 1st round busts are going to be more costly, however you have a greater chance of missing lower in the draft, that is why they are there in the first place.

I am sorry but with 10 draft picks we do not need any more picks, we need quality players that will turn into something rather than wasting low end draft picks on people that will never amount to anything.

No one's going to argue the fact that you are much more likely to find an impact player in round 1 than round 3, but you also have to consider relative value into the equation too. In other words, the first round is roughly twice as likely as the 2nd to produce a PB/HOF player, but if we were to trade #12, the value of that pick (if we were to move completely out of round 1) would likely be (2) 2nds and a 3rd. Using the numbers provide in your chart, there is actually a GREATER possibility of finding a HOF/PB player with one of those three picks, they come at lower salaries, and adding multiple players negates the downside of having 1 player who is either boom or bust.

montrose
02-24-2009, 07:29 PM
those were both really valid reasons, but, if we trade him, it shouldn't be for conditional picks. if he is used properly how he should be, and not as a starter how we have used him the last few years, he is easily a guy who will go out and get 12 sacks a year as a situational pass rusher.

with his skills alone, a 2nd rounder this year for him from a team that already has a pair of good starting DE's but need another pass rusher would not be out of the question.

Maybe a year ago but not now. Draft picks at are at the highest premium they've been in years because of the economy and looming uncapped year.

my thinking is, outside of him, we have no one on the roster who has shown any ability to get to the QB.

This is true. Jarvis is the only other guy with the potential to do so. But that's before the draft when we could go after a guy like Orakpo, Brown or Maybin.

if we go with Nolan's Defense and use the WOLB as a pass rusher only he will be really good at it.

It's still a big question mark. What makes Elvis a good pass rusher is that he's very quick in firing out of his 3 point stance and has some good pass rush moves. I have no idea how he'd do coming from a 2 point stance, and that's just as a pass rusher. If I'm an offense and I see Elvis standing up outside the weak-side tackle, I'm running right at him regardless of the down and distance. That's going to wear him down. Even if he were effective as an exclusive 3rd down WOLB, that's not going to be want the Broncos want long-term.

add in good coaching and i am sure his tackling and his general techniques will improve and make him a complete OLB.

The coaching could help, but he just hasn't shown the athletic ability to man the position full-time. I'd love to think that Doom would be a great OLB, but his skills don't transfer well to the position and even last year when we experimented with the 3-4 and stand-up pass rushers, Moss, Boss, Winborn and even Louis Green were used there while Elvis was on the DL.

[QUOTE=BroncoMan4ever;2300876]i would bet on Doom becoming a Pro Bowl WOLB over betting on Moss becoming a solid contributor to this or any team in the league.

I'll take that bet. I think Moss will become a solid contributor to some team once he receives improved coaching. I don't think he'll ever merit his 1st round status, but I do believe he can contribute in this league. Elvis wasn't a Pro Bowler at his natural position, he wasn't even a capable starter so I've got no reason to believe he's going to become a Pro Bowler at a position that he's less suited to play.

BroncoMan4ever
02-24-2009, 10:13 PM
I'll take that bet. I think Moss will become a solid contributor to some team once he receives improved coaching. I don't think he'll ever merit his 1st round status, but I do believe he can contribute in this league. Elvis wasn't a Pro Bowler at his natural position, he wasn't even a capable starter so I've got no reason to believe he's going to become a Pro Bowler at a position that he's less suited to play.

i should have phrased that differently, cause i didn't mean an actual bet. what i meant is i have more faith in Doom than i ever will in Moss.

Doom does nothing but prove people wrong. he was said to be too small coming out of college and he has proven if used properly he can and will get to the QB, and now people say he lacks the ability to convert to WOLB, and it would not surprise me to see him become a really good OLB for us.

TheChamp24
02-24-2009, 10:51 PM
It is absolutely insane that people still insist on trading down to pick up more picks when all the available evidence points to sacrificing lower end picks to MOVE UP and take a higher rated player. Here is a list of Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers taken in every round since the 1977 season.

Rd

1. 330
2. 153
3. 93
4. 45
5. 49
6. 43
7. 30
8. 19
9. 9
10. 10
11. 2
12. 7
Undrafted: 28

Now I realize this only shows HOF and PB but the evidence is very real that you should use lower end draft picks to move up to a higher round. This gives you a better chance at not only a HOF but a PB as well.

Individuals who constantly advocate dropping down and picking up an extra pick or two simply do not look at the statistics of quality players and where they are taken. Yes, 1st round busts are going to be more costly, however you have a greater chance of missing lower in the draft, that is why they are there in the first place.

I am sorry but with 10 draft picks we do not need any more picks, we need quality players that will turn into something rather than wasting low end draft picks on people that will never amount to anything.

We aren't looking for Pro Bowlers or Hall of Famers, we are looking for guys that will get the Broncos a Super Bowl. You do that by adding quality players throughout the entire draft, and add depth to areas in the draft.

BroncoMan4ever
02-24-2009, 11:53 PM
It is absolutely insane that people still insist on trading down to pick up more picks when all the available evidence points to sacrificing lower end picks to MOVE UP and take a higher rated player. Here is a list of Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers taken in every round since the 1977 season.

Rd

1. 330
2. 153
3. 93
4. 45
5. 49
6. 43
7. 30
8. 19
9. 9
10. 10
11. 2
12. 7
Undrafted: 28



that argument is not right, especially when you consider that as many as 300 new players enter the draft every year, and guys from every round become important pieces to their franchise.

also, the majority of strong, good players who are of big importance to teams who win super bowls do not go to the pro bowl or are ever mentioned when it comes to naming top players.

look at our Super Bowl teams, we had so much talent on those teams, but when it is all said and done, in the end there may be at most 6 guys who end up in the hall of fame, but as it stands now not all these guys will make it in.(Elway, Zimmerman, Atwater, Sharpe, Rod and TD)

for example in the importance of a player not being connected to pro bowls and Hall of Fame members, would Denver's rushing attack in the late 90's been anywhere near as good as it was without Howard Griffith cracking skulls and paving the way for TD.....no way, he was hugely important to us, but he didn't get the recognition and he will never get to the Hall of Fame

the list of players that are and were important to their teams is not noticed in Hall of Fame and pro bowl notice.

this april, i don't care if we draft 9 guys who never go to a pro bowl or are ever Hall of Famers as long as they are good players who work hard and make the team better.

MVP-06
02-25-2009, 11:12 AM
To get back into the 1st round we would have to give up next years 1st rounder. Were just not that good to be giving up those kinds of picks.

Kaylore
02-25-2009, 11:45 AM
I would not be against moving any player that no longer fits our needs for more draft picks.

Breaker
02-25-2009, 03:30 PM
that argument is not right, especially when you consider that as many as 300 new players enter the draft every year, and guys from every round become important pieces to their franchise.

also, the majority of strong, good players who are of big importance to teams who win super bowls do not go to the pro bowl or are ever mentioned when it comes to naming top players.

look at our Super Bowl teams, we had so much talent on those teams, but when it is all said and done, in the end there may be at most 6 guys who end up in the hall of fame, but as it stands now not all these guys will make it in.(Elway, Zimmerman, Atwater, Sharpe, Rod and TD)

for example in the importance of a player not being connected to pro bowls and Hall of Fame members, would Denver's rushing attack in the late 90's been anywhere near as good as it was without Howard Griffith cracking skulls and paving the way for TD.....no way, he was hugely important to us, but he didn't get the recognition and he will never get to the Hall of Fame

the list of players that are and were important to their teams is not noticed in Hall of Fame and pro bowl notice.

this april, i don't care if we draft 9 guys who never go to a pro bowl or are ever Hall of Famers as long as they are good players who work hard and make the team better.

The problem with you theory is that you are assuming that you are only finding quality players that are not PB or HOF quality in the later rounds. It stands to reason that if you are going to be finding more HOF and PB in the higher rounds then you are also going to find more quality players that are not PB or HOF in the higher rounds. You look at the law of diminishing returns in the later rounds. If you have two 4ths its makes sense to package them and move into the 3rd. You have only one shot to get it right as opposed to two, but the fact remains that the third round pick has a great probability to become at minimum of a quality player. Constantly trading down to pick up extra draft picks is just foolish. Especially when you have 10 draft picks already, what do you want to have 15 or 20 with more than half being in the 5th round or lower at the cost of moving to the back half of the first 3 rounds ? That makes absolutely no sense in any world.

BroncoMan4ever
02-25-2009, 04:34 PM
The problem with you theory is that you are assuming that you are only finding quality players that are not PB or HOF quality in the later rounds. It stands to reason that if you are going to be finding more HOF and PB in the higher rounds then you are also going to find more quality players that are not PB or HOF in the higher rounds. You look at the law of diminishing returns in the later rounds. If you have two 4ths its makes sense to package them and move into the 3rd. You have only one shot to get it right as opposed to two, but the fact remains that the third round pick has a great probability to become at minimum of a quality player. Constantly trading down to pick up extra draft picks is just foolish. Especially when you have 10 draft picks already, what do you want to have 15 or 20 with more than half being in the 5th round or lower at the cost of moving to the back half of the first 3 rounds ? That makes absolutely no sense in any world.

how do you figure, the majority of our good players are strong quality guys we found later in the draft. our entire OL minus Clady were late rounders, Hillis a guy we are counting on big time this season late round, the only Safety still on the team Barrett a late round guy, Woodyard undrafted, Marshall later round, Doom later round.

the point i was making is that with the pro bowl being somewhat of a popularity contest and players from the top teams that year send the majority of the players, and with the Hall of Fame only recognizing maybe 6 guys a year when as many as 300 new college players come into the league every year that the numbers regarding who and what round that person are not an accurate description of the kinds of guys you get in later rounds.