Peter Schiff Predicted This in 06

[Smiling Assassin27]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Here's what Schiff now says about the stimulus and about the way out..The video's hilarious as everyone is piling on the guy.

OPINION JANUARY 15, 2009, 3:11 P.M. ET There's No Pain-Free Cure for Recession
Belt-tightening is required by all, including government.Article

By PETER SCHIFF
As recession fears cause the nation to embrace greater state control of the economy and unimaginable federal deficits, one searches in vain for debate worthy of the moment. Where there should be an historic clash of ideas, there is only blind resignation and an amorphous queasiness that we are simply sweeping the slouching beast under the rug.

With faith in the free markets now taking a back seat to fear and expediency, nearly the entire political spectrum agrees that the federal government must spend whatever amount is necessary to stabilize the housing market, bail out financial firms, liquefy the credit markets, create jobs and make the recession as shallow and brief as possible. The few who maintain free-market views have been largely marginalized.

Taking the theories of economist John Maynard Keynes as gospel, our most highly respected contemporary economists imagine a complex world in which economics at the personal, corporate and municipal levels are governed by laws far different from those in effect at the national level.

Individuals, companies or cities with heavy debt and shrinking revenues instinctively know that they must reduce spending, tighten their belts, pay down debt and live within their means. But it is axiomatic in Keynesianism that national governments can create and sustain economic activity by injecting printed money into the financial system. In their view, absent the stimuli of the New Deal and World War II, the Depression would never have ended.

On a gut level, we have a hard time with this concept. There is a vague sense of smoke and mirrors, of something being magically created out of nothing. But economics, we are told, is complicated.

It would be irresponsible in the extreme for an individual to forestall a personal recession by taking out newer, bigger loans when the old loans can't be repaid. However, this is precisely what we are planning on a national level.

I believe these ideas hold sway largely because they promise happy, pain-free solutions. They are the economic equivalent of miracle weight-loss programs that require no dieting or exercise. The theories permit economists to claim mystic wisdom, governments to pretend that they have the power to dispel hardship with the whir of a printing press, and voters to believe that they can have recovery without sacrifice.

As a follower of the Austrian School of economics I believe that market forces apply equally to people and nations. The problems we face collectively are no different from those we face individually. Belt tightening is required by all, including government.

Governments cannot create but merely redirect. When the government spends, the money has to come from somewhere. If the government doesn't have a surplus, then it must come from taxes. If taxes don't go up, then it must come from increased borrowing. If lenders won't lend, then it must come from the printing press, which is where all these bailouts are headed. But each additional dollar printed diminishes the value those already in circulation. Something cannot be effortlessly created from nothing.

Similarly, any jobs or other economic activity created by public-sector expansion merely comes at the expense of jobs lost in the private sector. And if the government chooses to save inefficient jobs in select private industries, more efficient jobs will be lost in others. As more factors of production come under government control, the more inefficient our entire economy becomes. Inefficiency lowers productivity, stifles competitiveness and lowers living standards.

If we look at government market interventions through this pragmatic lens, what can we expect from the coming avalanche of federal activism?

By borrowing more than it can ever pay back, the government will guarantee higher inflation for years to come, thereby diminishing the value of all that Americans have saved and acquired. For now the inflationary tide is being held back by the countervailing pressures of bursting asset bubbles in real estate and stocks, forced liquidations in commodities, and troubled retailers slashing prices to unload excess inventory. But when the dust settles, trillions of new dollars will remain, chasing a diminished supply of goods. We will be left with 1970s-style stagflation, only with a much sharper contraction and significantly higher inflation.

The good news is that economics is not all that complicated. The bad news is that our economy is broken and there is nothing the government can do to fix it. However, the free market does have a cure: it's called a recession, and it's not fun, easy or quick. But if we put our faith in the power of government to make the pain go away, we will live with the consequences for generations.

Mr. Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets" (Wiley, 2008).

[frerottenextelway]

Krugman predicted it in 2005 and also isn't a dingbat like Schiff.

[Smiling Assassin27]

I'm not sure how predicting a financial crisis qualifies you for dingbat status and neither does being a laissez faire advocate. Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement of the Austrian school of Economics.

The guy gets cred for predicting this in the face of much opposition, IMO. Denigrating the guy just because he advised Ron Paul really isn't fair. The list of guys who got on board and oppose this stimulus is monstrous.

http://www.cato.org/special/stimulus09/alternate_version.html

[frerottenextelway]

I'm not sure how predicting a financial crisis qualifies you for dingbat status and neither does being a laissez faire advocate. Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement of the Austrian school of Economics.

The guy gets cred for predicting this in the face of much opposition, IMO. Denigrating the guy just because he advised Ron Paul really isn't fair. The list of guys who got on board and oppose this stimulus is monstrous.

http://www.cato.org/special/stimulus09/alternate_version.html

My point is that recognizing a housing bubble doesn't make everything else he says accurate. His economic philsophy is shared by very few economists - including others who recognized the same bubble.

[Smiling Assassin27]

My point is that recognizing a housing bubble doesn't make everything else he says accurate. His economic philsophy is shared by very few economists - including others who recognized the same bubble.


Whether economists share his philosophy or not also does not qualify one as a dingbat. If anyone has had a marginal track record at predictions, it's Krugman not Schiff. If Schiff were so inaccurate, I wonder why he's so sought after to speak to the economic issues of our time. By the way, he recognized more than just the housing bubble.

At any rate, NO economist is right all the time (i think Schiff himself has admitted that not 100% of his prediction has happened yet) but getting things right usually entitles one to some leeway on future predictions. It'll be interesting to see if stagflation hits and the dollar collapses.

[NaptownChief]

I'm not sure how predicting a financial crisis qualifies you for dingbat status



He doesn't agree with Obama and that will always qualify him as a Dingbat in Frerotten's view...at least until the next new and improved liberal leader comes along and then disagreement with them will require Dingbat status.

[barryr]

Krugman? Please, he's only a genius to other liberals. If we followed what Krugman thinks, our country's economy would resemble Mexico's.

[Arkie]

Schiff recognized the dot.com bubble a few years before it happened too.

[frerottenextelway]

Whether economists share his philosophy or not also does not qualify one as a dingbat. If anyone has had a marginal track record at predictions, it's Krugman not Schiff. If Schiff were so inaccurate, I wonder why he's so sought after to speak to the economic issues of our time. By the way, he recognized more than just the housing bubble.

At any rate, NO economist is right all the time (i think Schiff himself has admitted that not 100% of his prediction has happened yet) but getting things right usually entitles one to some leeway on future predictions. It'll be interesting to see if stagflation hits and the dollar collapses.

Yes, the Nobel Prize winner in economics doesn't know what he's talking about. :spit:

[frerottenextelway]

He doesn't agree with Obama and that will always qualify him as a Dingbat in Frerotten's view...at least until the next new and improved liberal leader comes along and then disagreement with them will require Dingbat status.

I've never seen someone so consistent at adding no substance to anything (sans Garcia of course).

[watermock]

But when the dust settles, trillions of new dollars will remain, chasing a diminished supply of goods. We will be left with 1970s-style stagflation, only with a much sharper contraction and significantly higher inflation.

The good news is that economics is not all that complicated. The bad news is that our economy is broken and there is nothing the government can do to fix it. However, the free market does have a cure: it's called a recession, and it's not fun, easy or quick. But if we put our faith in the power of government to make the pain go away, we will live with the consequences for generations.


That's what I see happening, but with the burden of debt far beyond what we had in the 70's.

Of course the fed cartel will pick up the pieces, but not yet....first they will print money to devalue our debt internatiopnally, while charging us 12% on every dollar the Treasury borrows.

I am starting to promote protectionism, rebuilding the grid with safe nuclear/solar, and halting the insane trade imbalances.

[Rigs11]

Hey smiling where were you for the last 8 years when Dumbya was running this country into the ground? And what is your solution to this economic mess that obama inherited?More tax cuts?

[watermock]

If we want war, I suggest raiding the Bahamas, and confiscating Halbriton's billions instead of wasting our time in the Khyber pass. That's been an epic fail for millenia.

We could give 200,000 troops a nice vacation too.

[watermock]

At any rate, NO economist is right all the time (i think Schiff himself has admitted that not 100% of his prediction has happened yet) but getting things right usually entitles one to some leeway on future predictions. It'll be interesting to see if stagflation hits and the dollar collapses.



Money is in the dollar because for NOW, it's the only safe place for money other than gold. It's all about preservation now. The Bear run is mostly over.Besides, you need deep pockets to run with the Bears in case you bet wrong. Thats why even gold had a correction, to cover speculation in commodities like oil, grains and aluminum.

[Taco John]

If you believe in the free market, you're a dingbat.

Got it.

[frerottenextelway]

If you believe in the free market, you're a dingbat.

Got it.

Reminds me of a cliche that I'll butcher - If everyone else is going the other way on a 1-way street, you may want to check that it's not you that's going the wrong way. Schiff is all alone on his island in the economic world.

[watermock]

BTW, Obama hardly had a "mandate" it was 40m votes. Besides picking Palin as an obvious bargain to the right with the assumption Hillary voters would be dragged along, his relief for the rich ect...

Still, he gathered 40 million votes. 48% of who voted. He was a product of the trilateral commision just like the unknown Carter.

McCain was an epic fail as a candidate.

If the Blago fiasco had happened earlier, the margin would of been closer.

Regardless, a line item veto is never more called for.

I heard this woman begging for money to renovate an art museum today.

[watermock]

Reminds me of a cliche that I'll butcher - If everyone else is going the other way on a 1-way street, you may want to check that it's not you that's going the wrong way. Schiff is all alone on his island in the economic world.



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[frerottenextelway]

They're blocked at work. Are they the clips of him on Fox News?

[watermock]

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He blamed a "flawed computer model".

Wrong data in, wrong data out. Pretty simple, besides, as Shiff said, "people aren't computers".

[watermock]

Reminds me of a cliche that I'll butcher - If everyone else is going the other way on a 1-way street, you may want to check that it's not you that's going the wrong way. Schiff is all alone on his island in the economic world.

You discount bravery as foolishness.

[frerottenextelway]

You discount bravery as foolishness.

Experts that dedicate their lives to their subject matter are usually right. That's really all people like you or I have to go by.

[Arkie]

I especially like Schiff's quote, that "...we should embrace recession because the disease is all this debt finance consumption... The cure is that we stop the spending and start saving and producing ... sometimes the medicine is bitter but needed"

He's been saying this for three years now. He's been so right that "Peter Schiff was right" has become a cliche. So what do the dingbats do? Laugh at Schiff and say "more debt and spending please!" ;D

[Garcia Bronco]

Experts that dedicate their lives to their subject matter are usually right. That's really all people like you or I have to go by.

LOL

[ak1971]

Im going to predict we will have a Real Estate Rally in 2015. Mark this thead.

[epicSocialism4tw]

Experts that dedicate their lives to their subject matter are usually right. That's really all people like you or I have to go by.

:saywhat:

Man, you need to pull yourself out of that line of thinking. That's exactly what they want...for you to view them as your god. So that they can make your decisions for you.

These arent nebulus, incomprehensible ideas. You should be educated on them so that your vote means what you want it to.

Dont get in line for these people to give you what they want to give you. America was founded to provide an alternative for people who wanted to decide for themselves their own lives.

[watermock]

Im going to predict we will have a Real Estate Rally in 2015. Mark this thead.

Sooner. If I wan't disabled I'd try to pick up a RE license and beg Meck for a job.

There's a booming market just moving abandoned stuff out of foreclosures.

Shiat is either left inside or dumped in the street.

[frerottenextelway]

LOL

I've never seen someone so consistent at adding no substance to anything (sans Garcia of course)..

[frerottenextelway]

:saywhat:

Man, you need to pull yourself out of that line of thinking. That's exactly what they want...for you to view them as your god. So that they can make your decisions for you.

These arent nebulus, incomprehensible ideas. You should be educated on them so that your vote means what you want it to.

Dont get in line for these people to give you what they want to give you. America was founded to provide an alternative for people who wanted to decide for themselves their own lives.

Thanks for your concern, but I'm p'bly smarter than you, p'bly know economics better than you - and still choose to put stock into what experts who are clearly smarter than both of us have to say on the subject.

[defenseman]

Yes, the Nobel Prize winner in economics doesn't know what he's talking about. :spit:

"Al Gore" is a nobel prize winner????????? So much for the credibility associated with winning a nobel prize, dragged down with the ground water from the melting glaciers,,,,,pretty much a worthless prize anymore now that the "scheister" was awarded one...dman

[defenseman]

Thanks for your concern, but I'm p'bly smarter than you, p'bly know economics better than you - and still choose to put stock into what experts who are clearly smarter than both of us have to say on the subject.

A legend in our own mind are we Mr. frerottenextelway?........and "Humble" must be your middle name.....:rofl: hilarious.....dman

[Bronco Bob]

"Al Gore" is a nobel prize winner????????? So much for the credibility associated with winning a nobel prize, dragged down with the ground water from the melting glaciers,,,,,pretty much a worthless prize anymore now that the "scheister" was awarded one...dman

Al Gore is correct and very much deserved the prize. Tough **** if you
right wingers don't like him and are too stupid to accept the Global
Climate change as a fact.

[watermock]

Tell China and wait.

[epicSocialism4tw]

Thanks for your concern, but I'm p'bly smarter than you, p'bly know economics better than you - and still choose to put stock into what experts who are clearly smarter than both of us have to say on the subject.

You are their tool.

That's exactly what they want you to be.

Do the rest of us a favor and stay out of the voting booth.

[NaptownChief]

Thanks for your concern, but I'm p'bly smarter than you, p'bly know economics better than you -

You definitely have the liberal elitist program down pat. Think you are smarter than everyone in the room and know what is best for the masses and it is your job to "protect" them from themselves.

Often times the only thing that separates a liberal elitist from a bag of hammers is the ego.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

You definitely have the liberal elitist program down pat. Think you are smarter than everyone in the room and know what is best for the masses and it is your job to "protect" them from themselves.

Often times the only thing that separates a liberal elitist from a bag of hammers is the ego.

So funny considering the political party you support cares more about re-establishing their voice than good policy.

""We're so far ahead of where we thought we'd be at this time," said Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), one of several younger congressmen seeking to lead the party's renewal. "It's not a sign that we're back to where we need to be, but it's a sign that we're beginning to find our voice. We're standing on our core principles, and the core principle that suffered the most in recent years was fiscal conservatism and economic liberty. That was the tallest pole in our tent, and we took an ax to it, but now we're building it back."

Also, this is the same political party that recently compared their "insurgency" to the Taliban.

It pains me to see idiots like John McCain, who clearly have no economic background, question simple economic theory. Their opposition to the stimulus package is purely political. As a result, we'll have a watered down stimulus that cut too much state aid (which is completely retarded considering that is good, quick stimulus and would keep a lot of state workers employed.) Keeping crap like a 15,000 tax credit if you flip your house to your brother is retarded.

I ****ing hate the right wing agenda.

[NaptownChief]

I ****ing hate the right wing agenda.



Yes, self responsibility isn't for everyone.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Yes, self responsibility isn't for everyone.

Self responsibility? At what point did all republicans get their labatomy to forget about the past 8 years...hmmmm

[Rohirrim]

Self responsibility? At what point did all republicans get their labatomy to forget about the past 8 years...hmmmm

Don't you know about the hallmark of the Repug code? They learned it from Bush/Rove. No matter how ****ed up everything is, and no matter if you are the one who ****ed it up, just keep smiling, convinced that your philosophy is correct, no matter what, and it's alway the other guy who is wrong, no matter what.

[NaptownChief]

Self responsibility? At what point did all republicans get their labatomy to forget about the past 8 years...hmmmm



You guys enjoy your little circle jerk.

You libs think this recession wouldn't have happened with your policies and you are actually correct....because the only reason the economy grew to a level it did and pulled back is due to free market/conservative policies. With the libbies policies we would have just kept chugging along with bread and soup lines for everyone and an economy that never got off the ground to even recess backwards.

[Rohirrim]

You guys enjoy your little circle jerk.

You libs think this recession wouldn't have happened with your policies and you are actually correct....because the only reason the economy grew to a level it did and pulled back is due to free market/conservative policies. With the libbies policies we would have just kept chugging along with bread and soup lines for everyone and an economy that never got off the ground to even recess backwards.

I take it you're a big Rod Serling fan.

[NaptownChief]

I take it you're a big Rod Serling fan.



Nah, just a big fan of yours.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

You guys enjoy your little circle jerk.

You libs think this recession wouldn't have happened with your policies and you are actually correct....because the only reason the economy grew to a level it did and pulled back is due to free market/conservative policies. With the libbies policies we would have just kept chugging along with bread and soup lines for everyone and an economy that never got off the ground to even recess backwards.

Your right, cept only the top 1 percent of america actually felt the effects of your great financial boom. Now we all get to pay! GREAT!

[NaptownChief]

Your right, cept only the top 1 percent of america actually felt the effects of your great financial boom. Now we all get to pay! GREAT!




Yeah, sure they did. The average American on welfare has a car and two TV's and a bag full of Mickey D's on the table.....The poor in most other countries are picking flies off each other and eating corn meal cakes about 1 once every couple days.

You need to save a few dollars and travel the world a little bit and your typical liberal "everybody but the top 1% have it so tough" way of thinking will get a real wake up call.

Even Oprah who is obviously a heavy Democrat gets that. That is the reason she poured all that money in that school outside the US, she stated that it is a joke to compare the "underprivileged" in the US to the underprivileged in most other countries.

But that is ok, you don't have to let the facts get in the way of a good story if you don't want.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Yeah, sure they did. The average American on welfare has a car and two TV's and a bag full of Mickey D's on the table.....The poor in most other countries are picking flies off each other and eating corn meal cakes about 1 once every couple days.

You need to save a few dollars and travel the world a little bit and your typical liberal "everybody but the top 1% have it so tough" way of thinking will get a real wake up call.

Even Oprah who is obviously a heavy Democrat gets that. That is the reason she poured all that money in that school outside the US, she stated that it is a joke to compare the "underprivileged" in the US to the underprivileged in most other countries.

But that is ok, you don't have to let the facts get in the way of a good story if you don't want.

Youre a ****ing idiot. We are BY FAR the richest country in America and the only real industrialized country without universal healthcare. Comparing us to starving countries in Africa is moronic. I'm not saying the poor here are worse than the poor elsewhere and I dont think anyone here is anti free market (we just want a REGULATED one...i lean towards socialism and still recognize this). Because of this country's wealth, we can create foundations for every american we currently dont have.

With your conservative politics, it creates a stronger divide between the haves and the have nots. The middle class is shirnking, you need a strong, spending middle class to ensure a well functioning economy

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Yeah, sure they did. The average American on welfare has a car and two TV's and a bag full of Mickey D's on the table.....The poor in most other countries are picking flies off each other and eating corn meal cakes about 1 once every couple days.

You need to save a few dollars and travel the world a little bit and your typical liberal "everybody but the top 1% have it so tough" way of thinking will get a real wake up call.

Even Oprah who is obviously a heavy Democrat gets that. That is the reason she poured all that money in that school outside the US, she stated that it is a joke to compare the "underprivileged" in the US to the underprivileged in most other countries.

But that is ok, you don't have to let the facts get in the way of a good story if you don't want.


And yes, the so-called "Bush Boom" was only kind to the higher ups...median wages stayed the same.

[Hotrod]

Youre a ****ing idiot. We are BY FAR the richest country in America and the only real industrialized country without universal healthcare. Comparing us to starving countries in Africa is moronic. I'm not saying the poor here are worse than the poor elsewhere and I dont think anyone here is anti free market (we just want a REGULATED one...i lean towards socialism and still recognize this). Because of this country's wealth, we can create foundations for every american we currently dont have.

With your conservative politics, it creates a stronger divide between the haves and the have nots. The middle class is shirnking, you need a strong, spending middle class to ensure a well functioning economy

The middle class needs to get off its ass and do something about their situation if they dont like it. I've worked my ass off and even with all the current issues am better off then I was 8 years ago.

I'm sick of lazy, fat, unmotivated people bitching about unfairness. ****'em get off your ass and do something about it. With effort and give a damn anyone can EARN a better life in this country.

Remember it is the 'Pursuit' of happiness not like the socialist party who feels you should be force feed happiness if you deserve it or not.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

The middle class needs to get off its ass and do something about their situation if they dont like it. I've worked my ass off and even with all the current issues am better off then I was 8 years ago.

I'm sick of lazy, fat, unmotivated people b****ing about unfairness. ****'em get off your ass and do something about it. With effort and give a damn anyone can EARN a better life in this country.

Remember it is the 'Pursuit' of happiness not like the socialist party who feels you should be force feed happiness if you deserve it or not.

We really need an emoticon that sighs

[Hotrod]

We really need an emoticon that sighs

Very insightfull

[barryr]

Ask Britain and Canda how their universal health care is working. Unless you're homeless and or like long lines and waiting, you probably aren't a big fan of it. But I know, it'll be different here though.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Ask Britain and Canda how their universal health care is working. Unless you're homeless and or like long lines and waiting, you probably aren't a big fan of it. But I know, it'll be different here though.

You really only like reading one side of the story, don't you? Profiting off health care and denying people coverage in the name of profit is nothing short of sick and inhuman

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Very insightfull


You gave me nothing to comment on. "Work harder!" Great. "Everyone has an equal shot!" "whats mine is mine, whats yours is yours" Got it.

[Hotrod]

You gave me nothing to comment on. "Work harder!" Great. "Everyone has an equal shot!" "whats mine is mine, whats yours is yours" Got it.

Too many lazy ****ers living off the system. ****'em

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Too many lazy ****ers living off the system. ****'em

I agree there are some, as their would be in any society..but thats hardly the problem

[Hotrod]

I agree there are some, as their would be in any society..but thats hardly the problem

Ok now we are getting somewhere. I guess its just too bad we cant tell who is just a lazy slug on the economy and who has just had a run of **** luck.

I understand the need for social programs etc. but I dont have to like them :)

[SonOfLe-loLang]

Ok now we are getting somewhere. I guess its just too bad we cant tell who is just a lazy slug on the economy and who has just had a run of **** luck.

I understand the need for social programs etc. but I dont have to like them :)

Fair enough:) Though if ever, god forbid, your house catches fire, be glad the fire dept isnt privatized

[Garcia Bronco]

Fair enough:) Though if ever, god forbid, your house catches fire, be glad the fire dept isnt privatized

I love how socialists try to classify fire, police, defense, and roads as the socialist probelms we have from a Governemnt perspective. I don't think anyone has a probelm with these. It's entitlement programs.

[barryr]

You really only like reading one side of the story, don't you? Profiting off health care and denying people coverage in the name of profit is nothing short of sick and inhuman

No more one-siding the issue than those that want those that can pay to pay for others who don't want the basic responsibilities. Sorry, but I don't feel I need to pay for somebody's drug problems or abortions because they can't figure out nor bother to use a condom. If you want to, then be my guest.

[barryr]

I love how socialists try to classify fire, police, defense, and roads as the socialist probelms we have from a Governemnt perspective. I don't think anyone has a probelm with these. It's entitlement programs.

And depending on the argument, essentially which way the wind is blowing at the time, are the first to criticize and complain about those programs. For them, everything is just about liberal politics and agendas. The fake care for our troops really takes the cake.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

No more one-siding the issue than those that want those that can pay to pay for others who don't want the basic responsibilities. Sorry, but I don't feel I need to pay for somebody's drug problems or abortions because they can't figure out nor bother to use a condom. If you want to, then be my guest.

Whatever, comments like that make you sound like an idiot.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

And depending on the argument, essentially which way the wind is blowing at the time, are the first to criticize and complain about those programs. For them, everything is just about liberal politics and agendas. The fake care for our troops really takes the cake.

Oh wait, i should have read this comment before i posted. Now you REALLY sound like an idiot.