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GoBroncos84
01-26-2009, 04:32 PM
I posted this on the denverbroncos.com forum and did not get much feedback, hoping to get more from you all. Feel free to rip this apart, it’s still very early and I am just working it out. I have been looking at several mock drafts trying to determine the general range these players have. This may be a very unlikely outcome for our offseason, but it is what I have worked through so far. Whether you are stating your opinion of “if it did happen” or stating the plausibility of it, comments are encouraged. First mock of the year. Thanks for looking and considering

Free Agent signings:

Terrell Suggs (OLB/DE)- This might be a long shot. We need versatility and physicality if we are going to implement a 3-4. Suggs can play DE in the 4-3 and OLB in the 3-4. Peppers is an intriguing option, but I think he gets franchised and traded. Hopefully we can get Suggs for cheaper and not have to trade for him. Plus he is younger. This would be a huge addition for us, giving us much needed toughness on D.

Sean Jones(FS)- Our safety situation is a joke. I have us addressing that a bit in the draft, but we also need a proven guy that can start for us while the rookies develop. I really like the way Jones plays, he should be a top priority for us. A lot of people want Atogwe, but I prefer Jones. Much more physical player and he can play either safety position

Chris Canty(DE)- I have been back and forth on this one. Canty is coming off of a down year. I have a lot of family members who are diehard Cowboys fans, and their opinions of Canty vary. They like him but feel his motor was inconsistent this season. However, we need a defensive overhaul and Canty has the size and physical tools to help us make the transition. There are some cheaper options, like Mike Wright and CJ Mosley, but I think Canty is the better player and would have a bigger impact.

Justin Miller (CB/KR)- We put in a waiver claim when he was released, so I think the Goodmans have him on their radar. Quite simply, this signing is for special teams. Miller could be a nickel or dime package corner, but his primary role would be as a kick returner. Should be a fairly cheap addition, and I can't imagine he wants to stay in Oakland. We take away a weapon from a division opponent and greatly enhance our field position.

Dunta Robinson (CB)- This hinges entirely on whether Dre Bly is retained. I want to see a list of player scenarios as far as contract status. For instance, If we cut Bly do we get a cap savings from not paying his salary, or is it a cap hit because of his bonus acceleration? If we save money from cutting him, I support us replacing him with Robinson who should be cheaper. Unless Bly is willing to take another pay cut. I have always liked Dunta, even though he has underperformed some since his rookie year and had some injuries. A more physical and explosive player when healthy, even though he does have some size limitations. I think Bly played better than some people give him credit for, its asking a lot of our corners to cover as long as they have to with no pass rush and Dre could do well if the players in front of him were better. But he is the wrong side of 30 and makes a lot of money. I would love to get Asomugha instead of Robinson, but he is going to get a huge deal and with the other signing I have listed I don't see how we can fit him under the cap. Plus, I think he gets franchised. Though I hope the Raiders waste that on Lechler instead


Analysis:
These moves should greatly improve our defense and special teams, the two major areas of concern. A big theme in this mock is getting bigger and tougher on defense. I love watching physical, aggressive teams that swarm to the ball and create turnovers. I think we are all tired of watching our defense get pushed around. I think we need two FS, at least one SS, a MLB, lots of help on the D-line, a running back, a kicker, and some depth on the O-line. If the money is still there we could address some more of those spots in free agency.

I know some of those guys will command a high salary. It appears as though we will have some cap space though, and could possibly create more with some cuts. I mentioned wanting to know the scenarios with Bly, I also want to know what the cap savings vs. hit we would get with Boss Bailey, Manuel, Robertson, McCree, and others. With that information I would be able to conduct this offseason mock more efficiently.


Contract Extensions: Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler, Chris Kuper

- Three vital parts of our offense, could go down as the best draft class we have ever had. Must keep these guys. Marshall will get top 5 receiver money, and the other two should get fair market deals as well. This eats some of that cap space we have

MOCK DRAFT:

1st- Rey Maualuga (MLB USC)

I love the way this guy plays. With GB moving to a 3-4, I think Raji goes to them. I know we need a NT, but there is no one else worth taking this high at that position. Rey brings size, athleticisim, toughness, leadership, and brutal hits to our linebacking group. He can play the middle or strong side in our 4-3 set and play the middle in our 3-4. I think if Raji is gone and Rey is on the board, we have to make this pick.

2nd- Tyson Jackson (DE LSU)

I know there is a huge possibility that Jackson is gone before our pick. I support going up to get him. Package our 2nd with a mid rounder, this year or next. Maybe a player that is not vital. For the sake of this mock, I have Jackson being available here. I would have no problem sending our 4th to move to the top of the 2nd or end of the 1st if that is what it took. Same theme, we need a player with the versatility to play the end in a 3-4 or can kick inside on the 4-3. Could also play LE in the 4-3. Never going to be a big sack guy, but he is the most dominant run defending end in this draft. Size, strength, toughness, leadership. If our first two rounds shape up like this I will be ecstatic. I blame WalterFootball for getting my hopes up if this is a complete pipe dream.


3rd- James Davis (RB Clemson)

I love this guy. I have been watching him for a few years and thinking how great he would be in our system. I thought he was a 1st rounder until his Senior year. We may benefit from his off year. I think he is available at this pick, though I don't see him falling to the 4th as some have speculated. Played behind a young, inexperienced o-line and split carries. But the talent is there. Can be the top back in our system and rotate with the other guys. Great value, and it addresses our major need on offense.


4th- Sherrod Martin (FS Troy) *

As previously stated, I am willing to give up this pick to move up for Jackson. If that is not necessary, I would love to get Martin here. He can play FS or CB, and is a big playmaker. We need help at Safety, he would provide depth and special teams help while he learns the system and adds some weight playing behind Sean Jones.

5th- Sammie Lee Hill (DT Stillman)

We need big cloggers who can play NT. I have never seen him play, but from what I have read he seems to be athletic for his size. Small school prospect, but fits a huge need. Take him early in the 5th if he is there

5th- Mitch King (DE Iowa)

Another versatile piece to our defensive puzzle. I love the intensity this guy plays with. He could go higher than this, but if he is available I think we should grab him up. Can play either DE spot in the 3-4, can play LE in the 4-3 or move inside DT. Size, toughness, strength, and attitude.

6th- Curtis Taylor (SS LSU)/ Kevin Ellison (SS USC)/ Courtney Green (SS Rutgers)

I think one of these guys will be there in the 6th. This has been the toughest pick for me. Some scouting reports have Ellison as high as the 4th round while some have him being a 6th rounder. He has a history of injuries and is not invited to the Senior Bowl. His status could depend on his workout numbers. Taylor is ranked ahead of Ellison in some lists, but usually ranked a round behind him. I put him as the first choice if he is available because I think Ellison goes in the 5th. Green is the fallback if both are gone. He can play either safety spot, but with Martin being drafted in the 4th we need a SS. If that 4th rounder is packaged to move up for Jackson, I would prefer a FS with this pick.

7th- Louie Sakoda (K Utah)

I live a couple of blocks from the University of Utah. King Louie would be a great addition for us. Can kick or punt, but I have him being drafted solely as a kicker. Should Kern get injured he can do both, which adds to his value. He does not have the strongest leg, which is Prater's strength. But he is extremely accurate, consistent, mentally tough, fundamentally sound, and clutch. Those are all weaknesses of Prater. I think his leg strength would improve by only doing one role, it would not get as fatigued. Has a career high of 53 yards, so its not like he has a noodle for a leg, but he won't be kicking a 60 yarder at the end of a half. I will trade that for reliability

7th- Antonio Dixon (NT Miami)

More depth on the D-line, Dixon can play the NT for our 3-4. Was a very highly regarded run defender until his knee injury. He has not recovered well from it, which is why he slips so far. Not many NT prospects in the draft, and if he can recover he has the size and ability to help us out quite a bit. Definitely a value pick in the 7th round if he is still on the board..

GoBroncos84
01-26-2009, 04:33 PM
I think this offseason would be spectacular. The only area I don't have us addressing is depth on the O-line. Wieggman should be back this year, I hope. But after that we need someone to replace him. Hamilton had a solid year, but he is our weakest link on the line. We are set with Clady, Harris, and Kuper. I think Lichtensteiger will be able to replace one of those guys, at either guard or center. But at some point we need to groom someone to take over the other spot. For this mock though, I feel the defense is a much bigger need and I focused on that with every move other than drafting a running back and kicker.


We aren't going to fix everything in one offseason, but this is my best attempt at it. I have us hanging on to Robertson so that we have a veteran who has experience in both the 4-3 and as a 3-4 NT. Its not his ideal spot, but a better option than relying solely on 2 rookies. Use a rotation to keep everyone fresh. Very versatile defense, players that can play multiple positions and roles depending on the scenario. I could see either Dumervil or Moss being trade bait, maybe used to move up for Jackson instead of the 4th rounder if it was necessary. I think either could be effective as a rush linebacker, but with Elvis in the last year of his contract and Moss being a first round pick, I think it would be too pricey to keep them both when they would essentially play the same role.

What do you guys and girls think?

elsid13
01-26-2009, 04:40 PM
Welcome to the board. Nice well thought out mock, there are some choices I don't agree with. Such as Davis in the third (I have been really disappointed with him this season) and I think that you need to find a NT in FA to support the Dline. Kevin Ellison and Sean Jones are in the box safities and I don't think that best fit for were Nolan is going.

GoBroncos84
01-26-2009, 05:02 PM
Welcome to the board. Nice well thought out mock, there are some choices I don't agree with. Such as Davis in the third (I have been really disappointed with him this season) and I think that you need to find a NT in FA to support the Dline. Kevin Ellison and Sean Jones are in the box safities and I don't think that best fit for were Nolan is going.

Thank you. I plan on editing it as time goes on. I don't see many options at NT as far as FA or the Draft go. I think once teams make some cuts there might be some, or maybe a trade is what needs to happen. Gabe Watson is RFA, so that would be an option.

I know Davis has had a down year, and he didn't do well at the Senior Bowl practices. But I still think he could excel in our system and has a lot of talent.

I know we need a coverage FS, and Atogwe and Dawkins could both be on the market. I think Atogwe is a bit overrated, and not very physical. I like him, but he is going to get a huge contract. I love Dawkins, but he would be a short term stop gap. That could work if we went after Taylor Mays or Eric Berry or some other safety prospect next year. Though I am hoping we can somehow be in postion to get Cody for NT in that draft. Unlikely unless we have a bad year, I know. I need to do more research on FS in the draft, I have us taking Sherrod Martin, who I know is undersized and might play corner. If we could not land Tyson Jackson in the 2nd, I would be all for getting Louis Delmas

elsid13
01-26-2009, 05:17 PM
Watson is not restricted this year. Search the main forum we have list of all the NT available in FA and in the draft.

ayjackson
01-26-2009, 05:39 PM
Good effort! The only thing I would suggest is that, assuming Jackson won't last until our second, we trade down from twleve to 20 (or thereabouts) and select Jackson. We can then use our two second rounders on LBs, if desired. You don't need to spend a top 12 pick on a SILB. You just need a two-down thumper who plays downhill and takes on guards.

We would be better off adding draft picks on day one than trading them away.

gyldenlove
01-26-2009, 06:04 PM
Tyson Jackson is a sure 1st round draft pick and would definitely cost more than a 2nd and 4th to move up that much, even with 2nd and 3rd it is unlikely. Mitch King is moving up boards fast and could end up in the 3rd round, but will most likely be long gone by the time the middle of the 5th round comes around.

The Raiders are going to use their exclusive franchise tag on Asomougha, they have already said that.

Suggs is not going to be "cheap", if he gets anything less than what Dwight Freeney got I will be shocked (30 mill signing bonus, 70 mill total over 6 years).

GoBroncos84
01-26-2009, 06:55 PM
Suggs is not going to be "cheap", if he gets anything less than what Dwight Freeney got I will be shocked (30 mill signing bonus, 70 mill total over 6 years).

I meant cheaper than Peppers, by no means will he be cheap. Even though he is younger, Peppers is coming off of a 14.5 sack season and will get paid more, I think. That is what I was referring to.


Thanks for all of the comments so far, its helping me improve

BroncoMan4ever
01-27-2009, 01:41 AM
i think right now would be the best time to sign marshall to an extension. he came off a good season, but he also led the league in drops. because of that he can't command top 5 receiver money, so now makes it the best time to sign him before he comes back next season and ends up playing a season like Larry Fitzgerald and he gains the leverage to command a top-5 WR contract. same with kuper we need to re-sign him now. another year like he had this year and he might play himself out of our price range.
Scheff is a guy i think we will be safe with. he has the talent to be a top TE in the league, but with his injury history he can't command a big deal, and will be able to be kept on a reasonable deal.

BroncoMan4ever
01-27-2009, 01:54 AM
Suggs is not going to be "cheap", if he gets anything less than what Dwight Freeney got I will be shocked (30 mill signing bonus, 70 mill total over 6 years).

No way is Suggs going to get a deal like Freeney. typically the OLB position in a 3-4 is not paid near as well as a premeir DE. also the fact that He only averages about 8 sacks a year and benefits a lot from playing in Baltimore. teams will more than likely be offering him a deal in the 18million signing bonus, and 48million over 6 years.


I meant cheaper than Peppers, by no means will he be cheap. Even though he is younger, Peppers is coming off of a 14.5 sack season and will get paid more, I think. That is what I was referring to.


Thanks for all of the comments so far, its helping me improve


my thinking with Peppers is he in my eyes appears to be on the downside of his career. he had a good statistical year this season, but when you really break down the competition he got his numbers against it isn't that spectacular.

6 of his sacks came against garbage teams in a 3 game span. he is also streaky
in 5 games he had no sacks, and against the best LT in the league(Clady) he was completely ineffective, he had absolutely no stats against Clady.

the point i am trying to make is, yes he would be a major upgrade to our Defense in a 4-3, but i don't think he is worth a deal that is more than likely going to be the richest contract for a DE in league history.

gyldenlove
01-27-2009, 07:06 AM
No way is Suggs going to get a deal like Freeney. typically the OLB position in a 3-4 is not paid near as well as a premeir DE. also the fact that He only averages about 8 sacks a year and benefits a lot from playing in Baltimore. teams will more than likely be offering him a deal in the 18million signing bonus, and 48million over 6 years.




Suggs line up at DE half the time and took the Ravens to arbitration last year to get the DE franchise tag rather than the OLB franchise tag. Suggs will get a deal very close to Freeneys, and that deal will set the market for Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman who will both get new deals neat year.

The only deal you can remotely look at to compare is Joey Porter who was older, much more 1-dimensional, and came off a down season. Porter got 20 mill in guarantees, Freeney got 30, Suggs will be closer to 30. The deal will be 7 years because that is the only way they can backload it, since the signing bonus can only be spread on the 5 first seasons, they are going to need to backload to get the total number up.



my thinking with Peppers is he in my eyes appears to be on the downside of his career. he had a good statistical year this season, but when you really break down the competition he got his numbers against it isn't that spectacular.

6 of his sacks came against garbage teams in a 3 game span. he is also streaky
in 5 games he had no sacks, and against the best LT in the league(Clady) he was completely ineffective, he had absolutely no stats against Clady.

the point i am trying to make is, yes he would be a major upgrade to our Defense in a 4-3, but i don't think he is worth a deal that is more than likely going to be the richest contract for a DE in league history.

Peppers will get a big deal, considering they gave Freeney a big deal and he is the most 1-dimensional true DE in the league, they will give Peppers one too unless they feel his injury situation isn't quite resolved.

Top players tend to get top dollar even if you can question their skills and production, just look at Deangelo Hall.

BroncoMan4ever
01-27-2009, 01:10 PM
Peppers will get a big deal, considering they gave Freeney a big deal and he is the most 1-dimensional true DE in the league, they will give Peppers one too unless they feel his injury situation isn't quite resolved.

Top players tend to get top dollar even if you can question their skills and production, just look at Deangelo Hall.

i agree completely that Peppers will get a huge deal, i just feel he is more than likely about to begin the downside of his career, and i don't want Denver to give him more than likely the biggest contract ever for a DE.

i don't think he is worth that much money or the picks we would have to give Carolina to get him.

GoBroncos84
01-28-2009, 04:18 PM
Watson is not restricted this year. Search the main forum we have list of all the NT available in FA and in the draft.


Hmm... Many sites say that he is.


http://www.walterfootball.com/freeagents2009DT.php

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Free+Agency/2008/listbypos.htm

http://profootball.scout.com/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2009&nid=83&lnid=83&rc=16&pid=22




Has he already re-signed or been extended?

elsid13
01-28-2009, 05:01 PM
Hmm... Many sites say that he is.


http://www.walterfootball.com/freeagents2009DT.php

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Free+Agency/2008/listbypos.htm

http://profootball.scout.com/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2009&nid=83&lnid=83&rc=16&pid=22




Has he already re-signed or been extended?

something changed. Less then a week ago most sites were saying he was FA.