2008 3-4 vs 4-3 NFL D Stats

[uplink]

Not quite got 100 posts but hope you'll excuse this one transgression.

Haven't seen this on NFL sites so I compared stats on NFL defensive schemes
(3-4 vs 4-3) <>=average

3-4 4-3
<Def rank> 1-32 11.4 17.9
<Div standing> 1-4 2.0 2.6
Record: W-L-T 63-37-0 162-188-2
<Yds(Y)> 430.21 468.51
<YPG> 301.6 332.8
<Rush Y> 1343.3 1680.7
<Rush YPG> 94.1 119.4
<Pass Y> 2958.9 3004.4
<Pass YPG> 207.5 213.4
<Points PG> 19.4 22.8

3-4 leads all, but check out the difference in records. Also, take away San Diego and all the 3-4 defenses in the NFL rank as at least ~ average.

With the broncos offense, an average D maybe all that is needed to be highly competitive in the future. This could come from a switch to tje 3-4. Not as if the broncos are teaming with talented D players they can't afford to loose in such a switch.

[Dedhed]

We might have the LBs to run a 3-4, but other than that our personnel doesn't really match up. If Romeo Crennel leaves Cleveland and the Broncos signed him on as a DC, at least we would have a DC who has the ability to run a legit 3-4.

We'd be looking at a two year transition at least, and Shanahan showed with Bates that he doesn't have that kind of patience.

I would love to see it though. I don't think it's a coincidence that the best defenses in the league run a 3-4. I think it's easier to find undervalued personnel, other than a NT, and I think when it's run well it's more difficult for offenses to adjust to.

In today's NFL, I think it's a better scheme, but I don't know if we can realistically make the switch without stepping backwards. The thought of this defense stepping backwards is truly scary.

[uplink]

better stat sheet average <> is over all teams running the scheme (3-4 or 4-3)

[400HZ]

The best 3-4 teams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Dallas, etc are all defensively focused teams and invest a ton of resources in keeping their D's strong. It's not a magic scheme. Also, the days of the 3-4 "tweener" type players having less draft value than the pure 4-3 guys is long over.

[Spider]

The best 3-4 teams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Dallas, etc are all defensively focused teams and invest a ton of resources in keeping their D's strong. It's not a magic scheme. Also, the days of the 3-4 "tweener" type players having less draft value than the pure 4-3 guys is long over.

you are right , but the 3-4 is a better defense if you got the right people .....

[400HZ]

you are right , but the 3-4 is a better defense if you got the right people .....

The Giants, Panthers, Bucs, Eagles, and Titans seem to do OK, just to name a few. That's five of the top ten defenses in the league.

The common link between elite defenses isn't scheme, it's a continual investment of quality players.

[Rock Chalk]

The Giants, Panthers, Bucs, Eagles, and Titans seem to do OK, just to name a few. That's five of the top ten defenses in the league.

The common link between elite defenses isn't scheme, it's a continual investment of quality players.

Which is why Denver sucks on Defense.

Shanahan gets torched in teh AFC Championship game failing to stop the opposing team from scoring a TD on pretty much every drive, he goes and gets a QB. Fair enough, Jake stunk it up that game.

We go 9-7 the next year, miss the playoffs because our defense collapsed completely at the end of the year Shanny goes and gets 3 out of 4 defensive players via the draft.

We turn around and have our absolute worst defensive year EVER and Shanny decides its time to start drafting more offense...again.

And now we are still among the worst defenses ever and Im pretty sure Shanahan is going to draft an RB in the first round and quick dicking around with his run game.

Probably snag another WR and a TE because fragile Scheffler cant stay on the field.

Then he will throw a dart at the board and hope we find a late round gem on a good defensive back, probably wont bother getting a real MLB or DEs or safety's.

[broncofan7]

Which is why Denver sucks on Defense.

Shanahan gets torched in teh AFC Championship game failing to stop the opposing team from scoring a TD on pretty much every drive, he goes and gets a QB. Fair enough, Jake stunk it up that game.

We go 9-7 the next year, miss the playoffs because our defense collapsed completely at the end of the year Shanny goes and gets 3 out of 4 defensive players via the draft.

We turn around and have our absolute worst defensive year EVER and Shanny decides its time to start drafting more offense...again.

And now we are still among the worst defenses ever and Im pretty sure Shanahan is going to draft an RB in the first round and quick dicking around with his run game.

Probably snag another WR and a TE because fragile Scheffler cant stay on the field.

Then he will throw a dart at the board and hope we find a late round gem on a good defensive back, probably wont bother getting a real MLB or DEs or safety's.


That would make me wanna throw up--I'd like us to pick up Suggs in FA (especially if Ray-Ray gets the franchise tag)--and then draft a 1st rd saftey or MLB. 2nd rd--draft best available defensive player (unless it's a WLB) and then in the 3rd look for a RB that has fallen...then Defesne, defense, defense again!

[Merlin]

And now we are still among the worst defenses ever and Im pretty sure Shanahan is going to draft an RB in the first round and quick dicking around with his run game.

Probably snag another WR and a TE because fragile Scheffler cant stay on the field.
I doubt Shanny will pick any offence in the first or early second day rounds, unless someone incredible drops in the second or third round. His focus will be D (DL, safety, LB, and a CB, late round RB).

The first of the three mentioned in no particular order, just in order of talent available.

[uplink]

Forgot an important stat, record of 3-4 teams vs. 4-3 teams
W=48 L=22

take out San Diego, which is the only 3-4 team with a below avergage D
and the record is

W=44 L=16

If I ran an NFL team, I'd be running the 3-4.

[Spider]

The Giants, Panthers, Bucs, Eagles, and Titans seem to do OK, just to name a few. That's five of the top ten defenses in the league.

The common link between elite defenses isn't scheme, it's a continual investment of quality players.

you listed all NFC teams , while I could rattle off the Ravens , Steelers , etc ... it doesnt matter what matters is who they played .....

[Spider]

Forgot an important stat, record of 3-4 teams vs. 4-3 teams
W=48 L=22

take out San Diego, which is the only 3-4 team with a below avergage D
and the record is

W=44 L=16

If I ran an NFL team, I'd be running the 3-4.

you may want to , but if you could is another thing .......

[Merlin]

Forgot an important stat, record of 3-4 teams vs. 4-3 teams
W=48 L=22

take out San Diego, which is the only 3-4 team with a below avergage D
and the record is

W=44 L=16

If I ran an NFL team, I'd be running the 3-4.
Care to state which are the top 6 teams? I'm pretty sure they are mostly 4-3. IOW, this superficial type of analysis is useless, far more data is needed to draw any meaningful conclusions.

[Spider]

Care to state which are the top 6 teams? I'm pretty sure they are mostly 4-3. IOW, this superficial type of analysis is useless, far more data is needed to draw any meaningful conclusions.

;D i am from the school that the 3-4 is a better scheme , but getting players to fill the roles is a different matter ........ But of all those teams listed whos defense would you prefer ?
Ravens ?
Steelers ?
Titans ?
Giants ?

[400HZ]

you listed all NFC teams , while I could rattle off the Ravens , Steelers , etc ... it doesnt matter what matters is who they played .....

The Titans play in the AFC. Unless you've heard something that I haven't.

[uplink]

Care to state which are the top 6 teams? I'm pretty sure they are mostly 4-3. IOW, this superficial type of analysis is useless, far more data is needed to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Took all the teams employing a base 3-4 defense per ESPN and determined
their record vs teams employing a base 4-3 defense. (used SF as a 4-3 team)

Before last weekends play the 3-4 team won 48 of 64 match-ups. So the
3-4 team won 3 out of every 4 games! I think it is a telling result. Take out
one team the chargers and the 3-4 team won ~ 4 out of ever 5 games!

[MagicHef]

Forgot an important stat, record of 3-4 teams vs. 4-3 teams
W=48 L=22

take out San Diego, which is the only 3-4 team with a below avergage D
and the record is

W=44 L=16

If I ran an NFL team, I'd be running the 3-4.

Not really on topic, but I thought this stat I saw today was amazing:

San Diego has the 25th ranked defense in the league...

And the 1st ranked defense in the AFCW.

[boltaneer]

Not really on topic, but I thought this stat I saw today was amazing:

San Diego has the 25th ranked defense in the league...

And the 1st ranked defense in the AFCW.

Just a food for thought defending San Diego's defense since the bye week:

San Diego defense has been allowing about 18 points a game since Ron Rivera took over. Approximately 15 if you factor out any non offensive points allowed - two safeties, Raiders KR TD and the INT Rivers threw in KC (It wasn't a pick six but pretty much was. I believe it was returned to the one yard line?).

They were giving up nearly 25 points a game under Cottrell.

Rivera has made all the difference in the world for this defense.

[Spider]

The Titans play in the AFC. Unless you've heard something that I haven't.

No smart ass they are a 4-3 team in the AFC .....I didnt see you list them ......so now go **** yourself

[uplink]

Example for how switching to 3-4 can work quick: Dolphins

How did the dolphins go from 1-15 last year to competing for the division this
year? How about switching from a 4-3 defense (was a hybrid but much more
4-3 like) to a 3-4 defense this year?

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Example for how switching to 3-4 can work quick: Dolphins

How did the dolphins go from 1-15 last year to competing for the division this
year? How about switching from a 4-3 defense (was a hybrid but much more
4-3 like) to a 3-4 defense this year?

Bill Parcells, Chad Pennington, Ricky Williams (Year 2 post suspension), Ted Ginn Jr (WR Year 2), Anthony Fasano, and some guy named Jake Long all say hi!! If you think the main reason for their turnaround is switching to a 3-4, you need to go back to the drawing board.

Can your analysis in this thread be even more superficial?

[rastaman]

The Broncos could switch to a 3-4 in 2009 and not play any worse than the 4-3 defense used in 2008!

What is key here, is for the Offense in 2009 to average 30-35 points per game over the the next 2 or 3 years, while Denver transitions and draft and bring in the necesary players that fit the 3-4 schems. It can be done you just have to have the vision and perserverance to get it done.

Meanwhile, the offense averaging 30-35 points every game will guarantee a winning season garnering at btwn 10 to 13 victories per season and playoff appearances, which will keep the Bronco fans happy.

Then once Denver is able to deploy a top 10 3-4 Defense, their chances of going to the Super Bowl will improve dramatically.

Denver is just a star RB away from Shannahan and Cutler being able to put 30-35 points per game on the board.

Lastly, there are more hybrid Linebacker/DE players available every year that there are available DE's in the draft and in FA, to run a 3-4 scheme vs a 4-3 scheme. Had Denver made the committment to a 3-4 Defense 3 or 4 years ago they would not only be much further along, they would have a defensive identity and consistency by now.

[LongDongJohnson]

3-4 defense is not better. the 4-3 is a fine defense but when you have guys like webster and winborn as your linebackers you suck

[yavoon]

The best 3-4 teams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Dallas, etc are all defensively focused teams and invest a ton of resources in keeping their D's strong. It's not a magic scheme. Also, the days of the 3-4 "tweener" type players having less draft value than the pure 4-3 guys is long over.

what? dallas the team w/ flozell, witten, romo, owens, williams, felix, and marion "invests a ton in its defense? bull****.

[400HZ]

what? dallas the team w/ flozell, witten, romo, owens, williams, felix, and marion "invests a ton in its defense? bull****.


Bull****, huh? Dallas has used 7 of its last 8 first round picks on defensive players. Maybe do some research next time before you call someones post bull****. You won't look so stupid.

[yavoon]

Bull****, huh? Dallas has used 7 of its last 8 first round picks on defensive players. Maybe do some research next time before you call someones post bull****. You won't look so stupid.

yah and we drafted ashley lelie in the first around, oh and some tackle named like an australian beer? I forget. Matt millen also wants to speak to you about how awesome detroits wr's are.

[Willynowei]

The biggest reason 3-4 teams succeed is because most of the league employs a 4-3 defense, and this gives them the ability to draft passrushing OLBs at a discount, and exploit weaknesses in Offensive lines mainly built to deal with a different front.

If more than half of the teams in the NFL ran a 3-4 then a guy like a Lamar Woodley would be worth as much as Mario Williams, which simply isn't the case. The 4-3 base defense is the better scheme, its dominance is also its major weakness - competition for the proper players.

A 4-3 front seven stacked with ideal players is schematically harder to deal with than a 3-4 front seven; mainly because you have a lot of trouble reaching those linebackers when you are running and knowing "where the pressure is comming from" doesn't matter since the front four is able to get off the ball and penetrate with their athleticism anyways.

The 3-4 relies on the idea that you've got a NT that cannot be moved off the LOS by a double team, which is assuming a whole lot. If teams in the NFL had to deal with 3-4 teams all year, you'd see alot more Guards like the Cowboys Leonard Davis at 325+ pounds that are strong as a bull and will, combined with the center; take any NT and throw him back 5 yards on every single play. Thus, without quick penetrating tackles like a Tommie Harris, you would end up with massive guards and centers that would just blow NT's off the ball all day. The league adjusts, it always does. The 4-3 has lasted and been the most popular mainly due to its versatility of being able to employ a variety of different players.

[Rausch 2.0]

The 3-4 relies on the idea that you've got a NT that cannot be moved off the LOS by a double team, which is assuming a whole lot. If teams in the NFL had to deal with 3-4 teams all year, you'd see alot more Guards like the Cowboys Leonard Davis at 325+ pounds that are strong as a bull and will, combined with the center; take any NT and throw him back 5 yards on every single play.

In part, yes.

But it's also the confusion that having 4 LB's on the field can create. It allows for more versatility in coverage as well.

You've had 3-4's with man (KC) and zone/zone blitz (Pittsburgh) coverages. Even combinations (the Panthers under Capers.)

On top of that it allows you to "hide" the 4th pass rusher. OLB? MLB? Up the middle? Stunt? Speed rush?

And you'll also find that most teams don't even attempt a 3-4 without knowing they have the talent for it. It's like an offense running a no-huddle. It's not something anyone can do...

[uplink]

Bill Parcells, Chad Pennington, Ricky Williams (Year 2 post suspension), Ted Ginn Jr (WR Year 2), Anthony Fasano, and some guy named Jake Long all say hi!! If you think the main reason for their turnaround is switching to a 3-4, you need to go back to the drawing board.

Can your analysis in this thread be even more superficial?

Maybe switching to the 3-4 is not the reason for the dolphins rise, but every team has talented players (though only Parcells and Pennington are real difference makers in your list above in my opinion, could add Joey Porter).
Lot of reasons why some teams become successful. Yet seems to me the defense scheme is a very important reason if you look at who is winning around the league.

Is it just a coincidence that the dolphins improve so much after switching to the 3-4 defense? Is it just a coincidence that teams running the 3-4 win 3 of 4 games against the 4-3? Is it just a coincidence that many 'good' teams defensively happen to run the 3-4. Seven of 30 teams run the 3-4, enough to compare head-to-head with the other teams and extract some telling results.

What other parameter (that can be changed) could one come up with that nets a 3:1 winning percentage?

[eddie mac]

It depends on how much you want to overhaul the defensive playing staff.

The players below would be pretty much useless in a 3-4.

DL
Elvis Dumervil far too small to play DE and would struggle due to his height at OLB
Marcus Thomas-not suited at all to the NT position and I just dont see him at DE in a 3-4 either
Dwayne Robertson-He left the Jets because he didn't suit the scheme
Wesley Woodyard-Unless he's moved to safety, far too small to play LB in a 3-4
Boss Bailey-Unless he plays inside but the only ILB place he's suitable for I would already have DJ Williams there cos neither are the Ted ILB.

Now here's the players this switch might suit.

Tim Crowder-Always been a power end and could be a good fit at WDE in a 3-4 if he added 10-15lbs
Jarvis Moss-WOLB in this scheme would be ideal for him, only thing is he'd need some work on his coverage skills.
DJ Williams-Would be perfect for SILB in a 3-4. He's not the Ted we'd need for hitting.
Mario Haggan-Could play inside or outside with his size, dont know much about his pass rushing ability or if he's able to cover the RB.
Spencer Larsen-Could be the inside guy opposite DJ if he's ready to start in this league.
Carlton Powell-Has the wide body to play NT in this league, I just dont think he'd be ready to start yet though, he'd need to play a reserve role for a year or 2.

The defensive backfield needs plenty of work regardless of which scheme we use this year. Bly is no longer good enough to start here that is pretty evident and his tackling ability has degressed as the year has moved on. He plays far better when he's covering the slot

So we'd end up looking like this prior to FA/Draft


SDE-Powell-Crowder


SOLB-DJ Williams-Larsen-Moss
Haggan

Bailey-SS-FS-CB
Bly

We'd be looking at a minimum of 7 new starters required IMO.

Here's some of the FA targets we should be looking at.

SDEs
1. Chris Canty
2. Dwan Edwards
3. Antonio Smith
4. Victor Adeyanju(RFA)
5. Shaun Cody


NTs
1. Albert Haynesworth
2. Grady Jackson
3. Anthony Montgomery
4. Tank Johnson
5. Gabe Watson (RFA)

SLBs
1. Terrell Suggs
2. Karlos Dansby
3. Rashad Jeanty(RFA)
4. Darryl Blackstock
5. Quentin Moses

ILB
1. Ray Lewis
2. Channing Crowder
3. Bart Scott
4. Mike Peterson
5. Andra Davis

FSs
1. Oshi Atogwe
2. James Sanders
3. Brian Dawkins
4. Mike Brown
5. Eugene Wilson

SSs
1. Sean Jones
2. Yeremiah Bell
3. Dawan Landry(RFA)
4. Jermaine Phillips
5. James Butler

[LongDongJohnson]

i think the main reason miami is winning this year is because they can actually protect the ball with there offense. something we dont know how to do.
they have only 10 turnovers all year

we have 26!

[BigPlayShay]

Past 10 Super Bowl winners

Giants = 4-3
Colts = 4-3
Steelers = 3-4
Patriots = 3-4
Patriots = 3-4
Bucanneers = 4-3
Patriots = 4-3
Ravens = 4-3
Rams = 4-3
Broncos = 4-3

[Inkana7]

The Giants use a multitude of fronts. They're mainly a 4-3 but they've used 3-4 fronts as well. SF and Baltimore both do the same. It's what I really really want us to do. I <3 Rex Ryan.

[yavoon]

i think the main reason miami is winning this year is because they can actually protect the ball with there offense. something we dont know how to do.
they have only 10 turnovers all year

we have 26!

its because of the near universally reviled(here) noodley armed pennington too.

[lostknight]

We might have the LBs to run a 3-4, but other than that our personnel doesn't really match up. If Romeo Crennel leaves Cleveland and the Broncos signed him on as a DC, at least we would have a DC who has the ability to run a legit 3-4.

We'd be looking at a two year transition at least, and Shanahan showed with Bates that he doesn't have that kind of patience.

I would love to see it though. I don't think it's a coincidence that the best defenses in the league run a 3-4. I think it's easier to find undervalued personnel, other than a NT, and I think when it's run well it's more difficult for offenses to adjust to.

In today's NFL, I think it's a better scheme, but I don't know if we can realistically make the switch without stepping backwards. The thought of this defense stepping backwards is truly scary.

I really don't think that it is a two year migration. I also don't think it's possible to step backwards at this point. Note the following:

Our defense is completly failing to get pressure on the QB in any sort of systematic way.
We already have the talent, in particular with Williams, Woodyard and Winborn and Boss Bailey to have a fairly effective LB corp.
It's quite conceivable that We are just one or two solid players on the line away from "average" defense. And with our offense, Average defenses will win superbowls.


BTW< I don't think it's a either/or situation. I think we will by playing more of a hybrid 3-4/4-3/4-4 lineup.

[elsid13]

I posted it here earlier today in draft section http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=75281

I know we have debated this to death, but I was thinking how hard is it really to move to the 3/4. I read that we don't have the players, it to hard the right personnel etc but I did a little mental simulation and modeling to see if we could do it one year.

Tell me if my logic is ****ed up, since I think we can do it in four outside moves. (* indicates a move). Outside move means that we don't have the resource in house to make the change

Line:

-Move Thomas, Robinson and Peterson to DE. Denver as already done this season so they all have experience doing it. Robinson can also cycle inside when he needs to

-Sign Ronalds Field (NT #325) from SF. He young player (27) having a good season and has two guys in front of him ~Franklin and Sopoaga *

-Sign Canty from Dallas for depth and rotation.*

-Love to Draft Terrence "Mount" Cody from Alabama but he going back to school. So we draft eithe BJ Rajia or Ron Brace BC's other DT at 326 has the size to play NT.*

- Allow Powell to grow into the NT position

-Keep Clemons or Shaw through TC to see who is most flexible to be a backup NT/DE

-Use Moss and Crowder in nickle/dime packages when Denver goes 4 down linemen in passing downs.

-Trade Dumervil to cover 2 team. I know that sucks but he's young and cheap which make a good trade candidate.


That move Denver from small defense line that holding up the offense line for the LB to make plays to a big defense (300 plus across the board) that holding up the offense line to let the LB make plays

LB:

-Keep both Boss and DJ at outside backers. Both are in the 240 range which while little small but is in range with guys like Porter (250) and Copper SD (235). Plus I think they have the speed to make a difference.

-Move Larson to inside backer. Plays to his strength of moving down field into the gap and and short zone. Plus he is a good blitzer up the middle. Like Trotter who I compare him to.

-Draft LB Worrell Williams (CAL) in the Fourth. Can play inside next to his brother and has good speed. *

-Keep Winborn, Green, Hagan and Niko Koutouvides, for depth and ST. Denver should also attempt to find another inside LB can that play.

- Move Woodyard into nickle LB role with DJ/Boss and bulk him up a little to play inside. Since Denver is in nickle/dime 40% of the time that make sure he see the field

LB are slightly on small side (about 245 across the starting 4) but do have more speed then most teams and can make plays.

[uplink]

i think the main reason miami is winning this year is because they can actually protect the ball with there offense. something we dont know how to do.
they have only 10 turnovers all year

we have 26!

You can afford to be more cautious on offense when you have a decent defense.

[Inkana7]

i think the main reason miami is winning this year is because they can actually protect the ball with there offense. something we dont know how to do.
they have only 10 turnovers all year

we have 26!

Miami is the exception, not the rule. Unless they seriously **** up this Sunday, those 10 turnovers will be the NFL record for fewest in a season. The current mark is 14.

[uplink]

3-4 defensive teams end up with a record of 57-33 against 4-3 teams in 2008 regular season. Seems like a definite advantage.

Roughly a 2 wins every 3 games. ( without Browns record is 53-26, Note: forgot about Browns before)

3-4 teams: Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Pats, Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, Cowboys, and 49ers(*after Oct. 21 2008).

*SF was not a true 3-4 team (switched between 3-4/4-3 base under Nolan) until Singletary took over.

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

I think we could convert to a 3-4 and we would need to make 1 FA signing at NT.
DT 14 Gabe Watson UFA 3 6-4/340 Michigan Arizona
DT 18 Jimmy Kennedy UFA 5 6-4/320 Penn State Jacksonville
DT 16 Kenderick Allen UFA 5 6-5/330 LSU Minnesota
DT 15 Ryan Sims UFA 7 6-4/315 North Carolina Tampa Bay

Robertson to LDE
Gabe Watson (or other) at NT
Marcus Thomas to RDE

ROLB: W. Woodyard
RILB: DJ Williams
LILB: N. Webster
L OLB: B. Bailey

Now I know you all ware wondering why I put Robertson at DE instead of NT. Look at Robertsons abiltiies Quick with read and react abilities. Good DT in 4-3 but that makes poor 3-4 NT because NT needs to be able to Stack stout and flow along the LOS. Thing is at the edges his read and react skills would be enhanced because it takes longer for the RB to get to the edge then it is to hit it up the middle.

[uplink]

2007 3-4 teams win percentage was 0.610 while that of 4-3 teams was 0.469

nice article:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_1920_The_4-3_vs._the_3-4.html

From 2007

Stats favoring 3-4 improving 08 vs. 07.