The Obama effect on the stock market

[Arkie]

Change We Can Believe In ~

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c179/gjbronco/1151826570.jpg?t=1225931396

[Garcia Bronco]

I say no. It will go up and down, but I doubt to 12,000.

[tnedator]

A lot will depend on what legislation is passed and how long the recession lasts. I doubt, hate the fact but doubt, we will reach 14k over the next four years. It's possible, but it will likely take a while for the market to take off again. Probably some violent lateral movement for a while, and then eventually, when the market believes we are at the end or near the end of the recession, to start progressing upward again.

[ak1971]

upward through mid 09 and a steady ride down through 11-12

[tnedator]

upward through mid 09 and a steady ride down through 11-12

Maybe. There is some history for the market having an initial surge after a democrat takes office, but everything I have read is that the second half of '09 is the soonest that most experts think it will start heading north again.

[ScottXray]

It is going to take 3-4 years for the economy to be righted, if it ever does. Maybe we'll see those levels toward the end of a second term, if no Other major problems come along by then. Extremely iffy!

[spdirty]

http://in.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idINN0531971420081105

(Repeats to widen distribution)

NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Wall Street hardly delivered a
rousing welcome to President-elect Barack Obama on Wednesday,
dropping by the largest margin on record for a day following a U.S.
presidential contest.

The slide more than wiped out the previous day's advance, the
largest Election Day rally ever for U.S. stocks.

The following table shows the percentage rise or decline in the
Dow Jones industrial average .DJI, Standard & Poor's 500 index
.SPX and Nasdaq composite index .IXIC (http://in.reuters.com/money/markets/index?symbol=us%21comp) on the day after a U.S
presidential election and who won the Election Day vote.

Year Dow S&P Nasdaq President elect
2008 -5.05 -5.27 -5.53 Barack Obama
2004 +1.01 +1.12 +0.98 George W. Bush
2000 -0.41 -1.58 -5.39 No decision: G.W. Bush v Al Gore*
1996 +1.59 +1.46 +1.34 William Clinton
1992 -0.91 -0.67 +0.16 William Clinton
1988 -0.43 -0.66 -0.29 George H. W. Bush
1984 -0.88 -0.73 -0.32 Ronald Reagan
1980 +1.70 +1.77 +1.49 Ronald Reagan
1976 -0.99 -1.14 -1.12 James Carter
1972 -0.11 -0.55 -0.39 Richard Nixon
1968 +0.34 +0.16 --- Richard Nixon
1964 -0.19 -0.05 --- Lyndon Johnson
1960 +0.77 +0.44 --- John Kennedy
1956 -0.85 -1.03 --- Dwight Eisenhower
1952 +0.40 +0.28 --- Dwight Eisenhower
1948 -3.85 -4.15 --- Harry Truman
1944 -0.27 0.00 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1940 -2.39 -3.14 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1936 +2.26 +1.40 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1932 -4.51 -2.67 --- Franklin Roosevelt
1928 +1.20 +1.77 --- Herbert Hoover
1924 +1.17 --- --- Calvin Coolidge
1920 -0.57 --- --- Warren Harding
1916 -0.35 --- --- Woodrow Wilson
1912 +1.83 --- --- Woodrow Wilson
1908 +2.38 --- --- William Taft
1904 +1.30 --- --- Theodore Roosevelt
1900 +3.33 --- --- William McKinley
1896 +4.54 --- --- William McKinley
* George W. Bush ultimately was determined the winner of the 2000
election.
Source: Reuters EcoWin

[ScottXray]

The decline today has NOTHING to do with Obama being elected.
The market reacted today to the BAD economic news that had been
reported over the last 4 days.

I guess yesterdays rise was just a feel good event that the election was finally going to be decided and that Obama would win, (all the polls indicated it), since there was NO news otherwise that could explain the bump in the Dow for the last few days. ALL the indicators were negative.

Today was just overdue..

[DenverBrit]

The decline today has NOTHING to do with Obama being elected.
The market reacted today to the BAD economic news that had been
reported over the last 4 days.

I guess yesterdays rise was just a feel good event that the election was finally going to be decided and that Obama would win, (all the polls indicated it), since there was NO news otherwise that could explain the bump in the Dow for the last few days. ALL the indicators were negative.

Today was just overdue..

Exactly!
The jobless numbers were bad enough to sink the market after a strong start.
Obama's election had nothing to do with the slump.

[Arkie]

Stocks are on sale. 40% off! Prices slashed and ready for the era of Obama.

[Smiling Assassin27]

the market will go down in the short term. with obama's incrase of capital gains tax on the horizon (prolly January or February), people will be dumping stock now to take advantage of the current tax rate, as opposed to the looming tax rate in 09. Once the legislation takes effect, the market will swing back up, as most will be in a buying mood rather than a selling mood to avoid the higher capital gains tax rate. Buy now.

[Rohirrim]

I don't think Obama's election means anything to the market. They're still trying to figure out the damage from the collapse of the derivatives market. Nobody knows yet, so the panic keeps ebbing and flowing, out and back. The market is like a bunch of mice in a barn. They know the cat is in there with them somewhere, but they're not sure where he is or if he has eaten, or not.

[theAPAOps5]

Damn it I voted yes because I wanted to be the only one! Not that I am sure it will just wanted to be different. Now 2 others are copying me!

[ScottXray]

In other news my 401K now has a whopping .2% positive return for the year
so far. Whoopee! At this rate I might get to 1%return by the end of the year and only lose 5% of its value (against inflation). Still doing better than most.