NBC-WSJ Poll says Romney leads for 2012.

[24champ]

NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here's what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP's new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee. Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%. Look for more from this survey later today.


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/05/1646644.aspx

:thumbsup:

Interesting stuff, looks like Palin is damaged goods. I also expect to see Jindal's name pop up in future polls, but I think he is going to run for re-election as Gov of LA.

[DomCasual]

In hindsight, I'm glad Mitt didn't win the nomination. I don't think he would have beat Obama, either. In four years, though - go Mitt!

[Drek]

In hindsight, I'm glad Mitt didn't win the nomination. I don't think he would have beat Obama, either. In four years, though - go Mitt!

If he couldn't beat Obama the "unproven novice" how is he going to beat an incumbent Obama who will almost surely preside over an economic improvement over the bottoming out we're now seeing under Bush?

[Crushaholic]

In hindsight, I'm glad Mitt didn't win the nomination. I don't think he would have beat Obama, either. In four years, though - go Mitt!

I disagree. Obama won on the message that people are hurting financially and we need to turn things around. Romney, as a businessman, could have tapped into that message much better than McCain. McCain was simply out of touch with the American public being in that giant bubble called D.C. for so long...

[Taco John]

Mitt Romney, and the republicans for that matter, don't stand a chance in 2012. The party is way too fractured right now and is currently in the process of pulling itself in several different directions.

[Crushaholic]

Mitt Romney, and the republicans for that matter, don't stand a chance in 2012. The party is way too fractured right now and is currently in the process of pulling itself in several different directions.

If the American people don't like Obama's policies by 2012, the Republicans definitely have a chance. The Republicans just have to nominate the correct candidate, something they didn't do this year. McCain didn't connect with what Americans are currently concerned.

[Taco John]

Bush got elected for two terms.

Bush.

Romney and the Republicans don't stand a chance in 2012.

[24champ]

If he couldn't beat Obama the "unproven novice" how is he going to beat an incumbent Obama who will almost surely preside over an economic improvement over the bottoming out we're now seeing under Bush?

Surely? I dont know about that...This economy is in pretty bad shape and currently Congress has very low approval ratings. If things don't improve soon then things won't be so hunky doory as it seems today.

[theAPAOps5]

The problem with the Republican party is exactly what TJ said. They are fractured and they have abandoned some of their core beliefs to focus on a few neocon beliefs.

They need a strong vibrant personality to revive them. But 2012 is a long ways away. Way to early to speculate.

[Drek]

Surely? I dont know about that...This economy is in pretty bad shape and currently Congress has very low approval ratings. If things don't improve soon then things won't be so hunky doory as it seems today.

Congress has had a low approval rating and when election season rolled around who lost seats?

Not a single democrat. Lots of republicans though. So what does that tell you about where the disapproval was really directed?

And the economy is already starting to rebound slightly from the beating its taken the last few months. Most economic experts have said that we're definitely entering a recession but we've probably already hit bottom. So in four years we'll be climbing out of the recession and the numbers comparing the economy (stock markets, dollar value, unemployment rate, etc.) from Obama's first day to this day four years from now is unlikely to paint anything but an improving picture.

However won this election was lined up for two terms unless there is a complete screw up. Maybe Obama makes that kind of mistake, but it'd have to overshadow the total incompetence that Bush has performed the last 8 years. That isn't easy.

[Old Dude]

The problem with the Republican party is exactly what TJ said. They are fractured and they have abandoned some of their core beliefs to focus on a few neocon beliefs.

They need a strong vibrant personality to revive them. But 2012 is a long ways away. Way to early to speculate.

Since Reagan, the GOP has been built on a coalition of two different groups: fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. There is certainly some overlap, but it's far from complete - as the internal division between Huckabee and Romney shows.

Even when those groups are added together, they aren't enough to make up an electoral majority. They have to be able, just like the Dems, to reach into the third of the country that identifies itself as Independent. Independents come in all kinds of shapes and sizes. Some are really "extremists" who are far more socially or fiscally conservative than the GOP base. Some are "extremists" who view the Dems as "sell-outs." Some just don't care about politics all that much and go with their gut instincts. Some have positions on issues that are half in the GOP camp and half in the Dem camp. This is probably the biggest subgroup. And some of these are "true moderates" who are exactly in-between the parties.

The GOP took a beating among Independents this year. More than anything, that's the group that went the other way. So one option for the Republicans is to try to figure out how to better appeal to the middle-of the roaders.

This is where there is going to some pretty interesting ideological battles behind the scenes. Do the fiscal conservatives try to make a broader appeal to the moderates by toning down the social issues? This is where some people felt that McCain (not really a big fiscal conservative to start with) blew it by selecting Palin as a nod to the social conservatives. At a time when he needed to be moving toward the center, he was moving to the right.

Or, do the social conservatives hold their ground and demand that the fiscal people be more responsive to middle and lower-middle class financial issues? See Huckabee. (And it's hard, by the way, to maintain a strong "free-and-unregulated-market" postion, in the middle of a Wall Street collapse.)

Another big factor in this election was the makeup of the electorate itself.

a. Obama energized an entire generation of youth. It's much harder for either the fiscal or social conservatives to sell their ideas to the majority of these "kids." By and large, they aren't making a lot of money and aren't too excited about "tax cuts." Socially, the majority (obviously not all) is far more liberal than their parents. The GOP is going to have to do something to reach out to this group. If they don't, they are in big trouble for years to come.

b. The other big factor is the Latino population, which has a faster growth rate than any other ethnic group. You can't really lump all Latinos together, butthe fact is that Bush won the majority of this "sub-group" in 2000 and in 2004, but McCain lost them - - big time. Why?

Part of it is probably generational. Once upon a time, the GOP could consider the cuban/ethnic vote down in Florida as money in the bank. A couple generations of Cuban-Americans have been strong Republican supporters ever since the Bay of Pigs. We are now three generations from that. It's ancient history.

Southwestern Latinos have a whole different set of issues. In many ways, (as a demographic group) they tend to line up with social conservatives. In other ways, they are a lot more liberal. They also tend to split in all kinds of directions on economic policy, but the majority of them are not "Joe the Plumber."

I'm going to predict that it's going to take the fiscal conservatives a long time to recover from the stock crash and bail-out. I think the social conservatives will capture control of the party, and I think we'll see some version of a replay of the Dole campaign from 1996 - with a focus on sex, drugs and rock & roll. (Family values, Crime, Religion, etc.)

Like 1996, though, the Independents will vote mainly with their pocket book. If Obama can get the economy going in a halfway decent direction and avoid going too far to the left too fast with respect to lifestyle/cultural issues, he should be in great shape.

[rugbythug]

If he couldn't beat Obama the "unproven novice" how is he going to beat an incumbent Obama who will almost surely preside over an economic improvement over the bottoming out we're now seeing under Bush?

This is the Bottom. This is the Bottom and you are bitching about Bush. :rofl:

[Crushaholic]

Congress has had a low approval rating and when election season rolled around who lost seats?

Not a single democrat. Lots of republicans though. So what does that tell you about where the disapproval was really directed?



My U.S. House district kicked out the Democrat incumbent...:clown:

Overall, you are correct. The Democrats have the White House and a bigger majority in Congress. Let's see if the state of the union improves under the left side of the aisle...

[24champ]

Congress has had a low approval rating and when election season rolled around who lost seats?

Not a single democrat. Lots of republicans though. So what does that tell you about where the disapproval was really directed?

And the economy is already starting to rebound slightly from the beating its taken the last few months. Most economic experts have said that we're definitely entering a recession but we've probably already hit bottom. So in four years we'll be climbing out of the recession and the numbers comparing the economy (stock markets, dollar value, unemployment rate, etc.) from Obama's first day to this day four years from now is unlikely to paint anything but an improving picture.

However won this election was lined up for two terms unless there is a complete screw up. Maybe Obama makes that kind of mistake, but it'd have to overshadow the total incompetence that Bush has performed the last 8 years. That isn't easy.

Well the onus is on the Democrats, they have run out of people to blame.

The fact some Republicans lost their seat, isn't such a bad thing. Certain RINOs like McCain and Shays got the boot and in McCain in particular will fade into the sunset when it comes to Politics. Just like Dole did...


Also judging by history of the last 30 years...this won't last long. Jimmy Carter had a Democratic controlled congress and Clinton also in his first year as President. We all know what happened then.

Your analysis of things are guaranteed to be better in the next four years is flawed and wishful thinking. First of all, a lot can happen in four years. We are still at war in two countries, and it is still a dangerous world regardless if Obama is President or not. President Bush had a domestic agenda when he entered as President in 2000, but then a year later planes start flying into buildings because of Terrorism. That obviously changed his whole Presidency. There is talk that Obama will cut back on Defense spending...we'll see how that plays out.

Couple things about the economy Drek-

1. The housing market will continue to decline well past 2010.
2. Unemployment has increased and more planned layoffs are on the horizon.
3. Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail and no more bailouts.

In short, Obama needs to prepare the Country for some tough times ahead. If he does not do so, the heat will be placed on him pretty quickly.

[ScottXray]

Well the onus is on the Democrats, they have run out of people to blame.

The fact some Republicans lost their seat, isn't such a bad thing. Certain RINOs like McCain and Shays got the boot and in McCain in particular will fade into the sunset when it comes to Politics. Just like Dole did...


Also judging by history of the last 30 years...this won't last long. Jimmy Carter had a Democratic controlled congress and Clinton also in his first year as President. We all know what happened then.

Your analysis of things are guaranteed to be better in the next four years is flawed and wishful thinking. First of all, a lot can happen in four years. We are still at war in two countries, and it is still a dangerous world regardless if Obama is President or not. President Bush had a domestic agenda when he entered as President in 2000, but then a year later planes start flying into buildings because of Terrorism. That obviously changed his whole Presidency. There is talk that Obama will cut back on Defense spending...we'll see how that plays out.

Couple things about the economy Drek-

1. The housing market will continue to decline well past 2010.
2. Unemployment has increased and more planned layoffs are on the horizon.
3. Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail and no more bailouts.

In short, Obama needs to prepare the Country for some tough times ahead. If he does not do so, the heat will be placed on him pretty quickly.


Seeing how Obama ran his campaign, what makes you think he would be dumb enough to not recognise the 3 items you mention above?

The man has shown that he is a brilliant strategist, and he knows the condition the country is in, and just what he can REALLY do to try to turn things around. He already started to warn the public that things are going to get worse and that the peolple have to work for themselves to turn things around. Take responsibility for their own actions.

My bet is that even if things get worse , Obama will win a second term easily.

[24champ]

Seeing how Obama ran his campaign, what makes you think he would be dumb enough to not recognise the 3 items you mention above?

The man has shown that he is a brilliant strategist, and he knows the condition the country is in, and just what he can REALLY do to try to turn things around. He already started to warn the public that things are going to get worse and that the peolple have to work for themselves to turn things around. Take responsibility for their own actions.

My bet is that even if things get worse , Obama will win a second term easily.

Obama has a large task in front of him, part of that is his own doing by promising the world to his voters. We'll see what happens...

[Bronco Bob]

The problem with the Republican party is exactly what TJ said. They are fractured and they have abandoned some of their core beliefs to focus on a few neocon beliefs.

They need a strong vibrant personality to revive them. But 2012 is a long ways away. Way to early to speculate.

I've heard talk of Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as a
future GOP presidential candidate. He's young, intelligent, and well liked
in Louisiana. And his parents are immigrants from India, so he has the
diversity thing going for him, sort of show the GOP isn't all old white men.

[24champ]

I've heard talk of Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as a
future GOP presidential candidate. He's young, intelligent, and well liked
in Louisiana. And his parents are immigrants from India, so he has the
diversity thing going for him, sort of show the GOP isn't all old white men.

I've heard that Jindal was supposed to be McCain's VP pick, but Jindal turned him down. Then McCain went to Elizabeth Dole for the VP slot, and she turned him down....and so on.