So lets flip this around.......

[PaintballCLE]

FIRST let me say this isn't a Republican meltdown thread........Its for my statistics class.........so please put if you are a republican, democrat, independant, or other at the end (for statistical purposes)


Many "experts" and just people I talk to in every day life say that if Obama was a white guy running for president against McCain this election would be a landslide considering McCain is the republican candidate after Bush.

With that being said......... my question is this:

If McCain was running aginst Obama after a presidency other than Bush.....would it have been a landslide in favor of McCain, McCain by a little, Obama by a little, or Obama by a landslide.

By deffinition for this question a landslide is > 60/40
a little is < 60/40

Thanks in advance to all who answer this for me!

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

FIRST let me say this is a Republican excuse-making thread........


Fixed. :thumbsup:

[Garcia Bronco]

I have no idea. McCain ran a terrible campaign. It had no direction and the VP choice was terrible. It could even be argued that the pick was based out of sexism. I don't think skin color drives this. People in general aren't as wrapped up in that as we are led to believe. Americans are not stupid and they know when they are watching a poorly run campaign.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

It's not just that McCain ran a poor campaign - this is a total repudiation of the Republican Party and its "greed is good" ideology.

[Garcia Bronco]

It's not just that McCain ran a poor campaign - this is a total repudiation of the Republican Party and its "greed is good" ideology.

I wouldn't say the Republican party has that ideology reaching every registered member. There are just greedy people.

[Bronco Yoda]

It would have worked out better for us if McCain had won in 2000 but that shipped sailed.

IMO, if Obama were more white then I think he would have lost to Hillary. Sad but true.

Hillary would have ate caribou Barbie and McCain 2.0 for lunch. (Then again the Repubs probably wouldn't have played the gender card then...so...)

Too honest to be P.C. ?

[Bronco Bob]

It would have worked out better for us if McCain had won in 2000 but that shipped sailed.

IMO, if Obama were more white then I think he would have lost to Hillary. Sad but true.

Hillary would have ate caribou Barbie and McCain 2.0 for lunch.

Too honest to be P.C. ?

I would have thought that. But as crappy as she ran her campaign it's
hard to say. The only one who ran a worse campaign than McCain
was Hillary.

[Bronco Yoda]

I would have thought that. But as crappy as she ran her campaign it's
hard to say. The only one who ran a worse campaign than McCain
was Hillary.

can't argue against that.

[footstepsfrom#27]

The question is confusing because you added the caveat, "if Obama was a white guy...."

Black Obama running against anyone but a guy following Bush would probably lose. This election is based on three things;

1) Bush backlash
2) Huge numbers of new young and minority voters being registered
3) An outstanding job by Obama in every area of his campaign

It's interesting that almost the entire south remains red even following the Bush disgrace and only 25% of the country still supporting him. That should tell you something.

[kappys]

I have no idea. McCain ran a terrible campaign. It had no direction and the VP choice was terrible. It could even be argued that the pick was based out of sexism. I don't think skin color drives this. People in general aren't as wrapped up in that as we are led to believe. Americans are not stupid and they know when they are watching a poorly run campaign.

I think this is a very astute assessment. Mccain really did run a poor campaign despite such a strong showing in the primaries. Americans love an underdog and watching Mccain take down the other Republican candidates made him very appealing.

I think the problem for Mccain is that he is a little more progressive than the Repbublicans in office - and focused his VP pick and a lot of his campaign into ensuring that the Republican base/religious right showed up on election day. I think by doing that, however, he alienated a lot of the independant voters. If Mccain had courted them instead, and possibly let his people use the Jeremiah Wright issue to try and rally the troops he might have done better.

[Breaker]

I would say that Obama would have won by a little if he was white. The massive blowout has much to do with minorities picking another minority.

[rastaman]

I would say that Obama would have won by a little if he was white. The massive blowout has much to do with minorities picking another minority.

Obama won b/c he's half white an half black, he won b/c he had better game plan and he had a game plan and strategy to run a campaign for the 21st Century. Whereas McCain ran a dis-organized ill planned campaign that had all the blue prints and DNA's of Republican 20th Century presidential campaigning model.

McCain used tactics from Lee Atwaters 1980's "Willie Horton" fearmongering as well as enlisted the help of Karl Rove at the last minute. Also, the last two months McCain stopped talking about the issues and started using attack dog tactics, smearingmongering, and inciting or allowing crowds to turn to hate filled rants.

[Drek]

I would say that Obama would have won by a little if he was white. The massive blowout has much to do with minorities picking another minority.

Minorities vote at basically this same clip for all democrats, so take your "they all just hate the white man" bull**** and shove it.

Maybe the GOP should try to be the party that benefits someone but rich WASPs if they want minority turnout.

The quantity of minorities voting also trends perfectly with the general increase in voter turnout and the youth vote of all ethnicities, so don't go there either unless you want to just keep proving you're a jackass.

Obama inspired people of all walks of life to get out and vote for a candidate that made them feel like change was truly possible. I know it hurts to see your dearly held ideals cast down in a landslide election but that is what just happened.

As for the question at hand:
If Obama was white he'd have won the primaries just about when South Carolina came in, and he would've taken 370+ in the electoral college including Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas.

This is a bull**** excuse. People voted for Obama because he has compelling ideas, he motivates people to get involved and to show up and vote, and his methods are the equivalent of political judo, constantly on defense, turning the opposition's attacks back on them. He won because no one still involved with the GOP (and most of the Democratic party for that matter) understands how to run a campaign that isn't focused on creating and growing wedge issues. He killed Rovian politics while everyone else was still trying to play that game. Not too different from what Wilt Chamberlain did in the NBA.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

I would say that Obama would have won by a little if he was white. The massive blowout has much to do with minorities picking another minority.

http://g-ecx.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/ciu/41/7a/963f224b9da0b62a8697c010._AA240_.L.jpg

[Spider]

IBOAB , it is the economy , thats what Clinton won on also ........ Color didnt play a role , people wanting the Economy fixed ...... if this election was on national Defense , mcCain wins ......

[Old Dude]

I think an important part of what happened is that Obama was able to energize young voters by reaching out through the internet. This had huge payoffs in terms of campaign financing. Young voters (18-29) went for Obama by a 2-1 ratio.

Compare that to how FDR used radio, and how savvy politicians in the early 60s understood the importance of television. Anyone who's out front in communicating his or her message - and who gets a leg up on that technology, is at a big advantage.

I don't think any other candidate, democratic or republican, had as good a grasp on this as Obama. (Ron Paul may have been ahead of everyone that way, but he had no real ground game to back it up.)

The thing about Obama's victory is that those voters aren't going away. (In this, he's a lot like Reagan, who was able to keep his army together after the election.)

[theAPAOps5]

It would have been much closer if you took out the Bush anchor. I think if he didn't have Bush dragging him down he wouldn't have run the campaign he did. He wouldn't have tapped Palin for her "change" potential. He would have been more like the John McCain we saw in his concession speach last night. Which would have probably drawn more independents like myslef.

But you can't discount the ability Obama had to energize voters again who were once apathetic. Not running against Bush wouldn't change that. I think he wins but not like he did last night.

[Garcia Bronco]

"White voters" turned out and voted for Obama at a rate of 61 percent. Meaning color had nothing to do with it for majority.

[Spider]

thank you white voters for voting for Obama , and putting me on easy street ;D

[Crushaholic]

FIRST let me say this isn't a Republican meltdown thread........Its for my statistics class.........so please put if you are a republican, democrat, independant, or other at the end (for statistical purposes)


Many "experts" and just people I talk to in every day life say that if Obama was a white guy running for president against McCain this election would be a landslide considering McCain is the republican candidate after Bush.

With that being said......... my question is this:

If McCain was running aginst Obama after a presidency other than Bush.....would it have been a landslide in favor of McCain, McCain by a little, Obama by a little, or Obama by a landslide.

By deffinition for this question a landslide is > 60/40
a little is < 60/40

Thanks in advance to all who answer this for me!

This question is difficult, because I think Obama won because we are in tough economic times, not necessarily because Bush is in office. Given the same economic climate but a different president, Obama still would have won by a little. It was simply his time.

Oh, and I am a Republican.