Broncofan7's pcisk for Week 9

[broncofan7]

Last week I had a GOOD week--going 4 of 5. See below

1) OK to cover (-18.5) @ K-state--K state is TRASH. Sooners win it by 21+ $$$$$ (lock)

2) ND (-11) to cover @ Washington --Washington is HORRID!! 20+ pt ripping $$$$$(lock)


3) Duke (yes, Duke) (+10) @Vandy--Vandy cannot score enough to win by more than 10 over The Blue Devils who are having a solid year--competitive in most games. ($$$--farily certain)

4) RAVENS (-7.5) to cover VS JOKELAND--Will the Raiders even SCORE Sunday? ($$$$--VERY CERTAIN)

5)And my UPSET --CINCY to cover (+9) if not outright win @ TEXANS--Houston's "D" is horrid--Fitzpatrick has faced much tougher defenses and done a decent job--look for OCHO Stinko to have his best game of the season. ($--it's my UPSET special)

This week I hope to continue my good luck with the following 5 picks...

1) MIA (+3) @ DEN--as much as I hate to write this--Denver is a miserable 1-6 against the spread this year covering only once--IN WEEK 1!! They have yet to cover at home this year. Subtract Champ from this defense it opens up 1/3 rd MORE of the field for Pennington--I say the Fins cover if not outright win. $$$$$-LOCK

2) CLE -1.5 vs BAL--LOOK for CLE to continue righting their season with a sound thrashing of the Ravens ---I do not like Flacco on the road against a team that has the potential to score points in bunches(ala INDY and their 31-3 beating of the Birds) $$$$--very strong

3) LSU (-26.5) vs Tulane---LSU is going to be a bunch of angry tigers coming off their 2nd humbling loss of the year--look for them to regain some confidence with a pounding of Tulane. $$$--solid

4) USC (-46) vs Washington--yes--USC will beat WAS by more than 46 points--they covered a 42 point spread against WAS St earlier this year and WAS may be worse--this game is AT USC and USC has failed to cover only twice this season--their only loss at Oregon St and last week @ AZ where they traditionally don't play well. Look for Petet Carroll to keep them highly motivated and they will put on an offensive show against the huskies.... $$$$--very strong


5) UPSET SPECIAL--GB(+5.5) to cover if not ouright win in TEN--just a hunch that the balance on GB's offense will lend itself to 20 + points and Kerry Collins will be exposed this week and turn the ball over. GB to cover if not outright win in TEN. $

[DomCasual]

Good pcisks, dawg! ;)

[broncofan7]

Good pcisks, dawg! ;)

Doh! Can you tell my keyboard and and I don't get along very well?

[Doggcow]

Washington isn't worse than the Cougs this year, fyi. Cougs are the worst team ever assembled.

[Kaylore]

Tohse era smoe gerat pcisk.

[LittleFloyd]

WTF is a pcisk? Sounds like something penicillin should clear up

[azbroncfan]

Pitt +1.5 at Wash

Tenn -5.5 vs GB

STL +3 vs AZ

Mia +3 @ Den

[broncofan2438]

Booooooooo!

[broncofan7]

Booooooooo!

Don't get me wrong, it's EXTREMELY hard to go against the Broncos--but can you believe that they have not coverd at home, even once? That is unfortunately a sign of a team that really is not that good. :(

[400HZ]

I hit on App State (-1) yesterday. I got Boise State (-21) @ New Mexico State today. Oklahoma State (-28.5) vs Iowa State sounds pretty good, too.

[vancejohnson82]

Ive been on a roll with the NBA lately....

I like Notre Dame today
I like Florida today...


Those two are the ones I'm sticking with

[azbroncfan]

Don't get me wrong, it's EXTREMELY hard to go against the Broncos--but can you believe that they have not coverd at home, even once? That is unfortunately a sign of a team that really is not that good. :(

They covered against SD but it depends when you got your number. The week 2 opening line SD was favored. I do agree with you and that is a trend over the past couple years is that Denver has been horrible against the spread and odds makers know that they have loyal homeristic fans that will bet on them regardless and they get crappy lines and are overrated.

[theAPAOps5]

I wouldn't call the Broncos a lock to not cover. Granted if they win it will be likely by one pt. However, you have to take 14-6 into account. Thats Coach Shanahans record after the by week.

Other than that great stuff.

[broncofan7]

They covered against SD but it depends when you got your number. The week 2 opening line SD was favored. I do agree with you and that is a trend over the past couple years is that Denver has been horrible against the spread and odds makers know that they have loyal homeristic fans that will bet on them regardless and they get crappy lines and are overrated.

Yeah, I wasn't referring to the openning line, but rtaher the closing line

Game LOG for the 2008 Season Results Offense Defense
Date Opponent Line OU Score SU ATS OU RY RYPA PY PYPC RY RYPA PY PYPC
10/20 at NEW ENGLAND +3 47.5 7-41 L L Ov 106 4.1 169 8.9 257 6.8 147 8.2
10/12 vs JACKSONVILLE -3 48 17-24 L L Un 131 5.7 192 9.1 155 4.6 261 10.4
10/05 vs TAMPA BAY -3.5 47 16-13 W L Un 106 4.1 227 9.9 139 6.3 168 6.5
09/28 at KANSAS CITY -8 47 19-33 L L Ov 94 4.3 352 12.1 213 6.5 157 7.5
09/21 vs NEW OR -5.5 51.5 34-32 W L Ov 105 4.4 264 12.6 88 3.5 414 10.6
09/14 vs SAN DIEGO -1.5 46.5 39-38 W L Ov
09/08 at OAKLAND -3 40 41-14 W W Ov 142 4.2 299 18.7 150

[azbroncfan]

Yeah, I wasn't referring to the openning line, but rtaher the closing line

Game LOG for the 2008 Season Results Offense Defense
Date Opponent Line OU Score SU ATS OU RY RYPA PY PYPC RY RYPA PY PYPC
10/20 at NEW ENGLAND +3 47.5 7-41 L L Ov 106 4.1 169 8.9 257 6.8 147 8.2
10/12 vs JACKSONVILLE -3 48 17-24 L L Un 131 5.7 192 9.1 155 4.6 261 10.4
10/05 vs TAMPA BAY -3.5 47 16-13 W L Un 106 4.1 227 9.9 139 6.3 168 6.5
09/28 at KANSAS CITY -8 47 19-33 L L Ov 94 4.3 352 12.1 213 6.5 157 7.5
09/21 vs NEW OR -5.5 51.5 34-32 W L Ov 105 4.4 264 12.6 88 3.5 414 10.6
09/14 vs SAN DIEGO -1.5 46.5 39-38 W L Ov
09/08 at OAKLAND -3 40 41-14 W W Ov 142 4.2 299 18.7 150


Yes I agree with you 100 percent that Denver is terrible ATS but it also matters who you use as a sports book also. I took TB +3 on Thursday when the injury reports come out and got a push. Denver has been horrid for 3 years ATS which is a characteristic of an overrated team. I have done great betting on Miami this year also who has been great ATS.

[broncofan7]

Yes I agree with you 100 percent that Denver is terrible ATS but it also matters who you use as a sports book also. I took TB +3 on Thursday when the injury reports come out and got a push. Denver has been horrid for 3 years ATS which is a characteristic of an overrated team. I have done great betting on Miami this year also who has been great ATS.

very cool--I will have to take a look at the 'fins in additional games this year--thanks for the advice.

[Doggcow]

I'm going to put up my own: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Anyone Playing WSU.

[broncofan7]

3) LSU (-26.5) vs Tulane---LSU is going to be a bunch of angry tigers coming off their 2nd humbling loss of the year--look for them to regain some confidence with a pounding of Tulane. $$$--solid
OOOPS! they won by only 25:(

[400HZ]

I hit on App State (-1) yesterday. I got Boise State (-21) @ New Mexico State today. Oklahoma State (-28.5) vs Iowa State sounds pretty good, too.

3/3!

[broncofan7]

3/3!

very nice! I must have missed your post darn it!

[broncofan7]

Miami is now +4.5---guys I'd jump on this if you haven't already

[theAPAOps5]

+4.5 wonder what is driving it up. I thought it would tighten.

[Doggcow]

Still stand by my Cougs. Just bet the farm on whoever is playing the Cougs.

[azbroncfan]

+4.5 wonder what is driving it up. I thought it would tighten.

Homer Bronco fans that are vastly overrating their own team. With a Defense that they have I wouldn't give up that many points to the Washington State Cougars.

[Beantown Bronco]

Homer Bronco fans that are vastly overrating their own team. With a Defense that they have I wouldn't give up that many points to the Washington State Cougars.

seriously, they've been killing me this year....I'm picking against them any time they're giving more than 3 pts until further notice.

[azbroncfan]

+4.5 wonder what is driving it up. I thought it would tighten.

I don't know where you got that line as all my websites I use are Denver -2 to -3 where it started. The trend to me is money going on Miami and has dropped the line a pt.

[broncofan7]

I don't know where you got that line as all my websites I use are Denver -2 to -3 where it started. The trend to me is money going on Miami and has dropped the line a pt.

www.sportsbook.com

Dolphins(Miami) 26
Broncos(Denver) 17 11/02/08(16:10 ET)
Dolphins(Miami) +4.5

[broncofan7]

Ok--I went 3-2, still a winning week but certainly nothing to brag about. Tulane scoring late screwed me.......

[azbroncfan]

Not too good past couple weeks but still 22-10-2 on the year and I bet on INDY -6 tonight.