Rulon Velvet Jones
10-30-2008, 06:02 AM
Miami at Denver
When: Sunday, 7:05 PM EST (really?)
Watch: CBS
Preview
More scouting reports: Week 9
Scouts Inc. Position Advantage
QB - DEN
RB - MIA
WR - DEN
OL - DEN
DL - MIA
LB - MIA
DB - MIA
ST - DEN
Coach - MIA (again?)
Miami hosted Buffalo last week and secured a crucial AFC East win. It's safe to say that the Dolphins, coming off a one-win season, already have surpassed expectations. Last year is now ancient history, and the new regime has instilled a much different attitude. A team opponents used to look forward to facing has gotten much tougher, especially in the trenches. Denver, on the other hand, was shown some mercy by the schedule after being utterly embarrassed by New England in Week 7. The Broncos have lost two in a row, but remain in the thick of the playoff race thanks to the weak AFC West.
When Miami has the ball
Though we're sure to see the Wildcat offense Sunday in Denver, the Dolphins probably won't need it to force their run game down the throats of the Broncos. Two strong running backs and a good young offensive line execute a power zone scheme that makes up the foundation of Miami's offense. A run-first operation will be as grounded as ever this week, with the Dolphins hoping to exploit the Broncos' shoddy run defense and to keep QB Jay Cutler off the field.
Miami lacks dangerous weapons, but the offense has some useful tools. WR Ted Ginn's deep speed must be respected. QB Chad Pennington is accurate and efficient in the short and intermediate zones, and he gets the ball out quickly to avoid sacks. WR Greg Camarillo is a crisp route runner with excellent hands. TE Anthony Fasano should be involved against a Broncos defense that has had trouble handling opposing tight ends. RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are good receivers, too. The Dolphins allowed only one sack last week, but the line will need to stay sharp to hold off a surging Broncos pass rush.
When Denver has the ball
Cutler should carve up this defense. With a suspect secondary, the Dolphins allow far too many big pass plays. Those back-end issues limit Miami's play calling and force coordinator Paul Pasqualoni to stay away from a lot of five- and six-man pressures. The good news for the Dolphins: The pass rush continues to improve, even with the team usually rushing only four out of its 3-4 scheme. (OLB Joey Porter, the league's sack leader, has been reborn under the new coaching staff.) It will be imperative for Miami to find ways to pressure Cutler.
Because the Broncos' passing game is so dangerous, it's very unlikely that the Dolphins will be able to consistently align an eighth defender in the box -- and that's a problem. The middle of the field has been more accessible for opponents since NT Jason Ferguson (ribs) went down. To eliminate cutback lanes created by the Broncos' zone running game, the Dolphins need to be sound in their tackling and gap discipline. Denver's usual revolving door at running back could open for RB Ryan Torain, a one-cut power runner whose style fits the scheme exceptionally well but who lacks experience at this level.
Matchup to watch
Broncos LT Ryan Clady vs. Dolphins OLB Joey Porter
Porter had two sacks last week (one resulting in a safety) and has been a terror all season in Miami's 3-4 scheme, which clearly is the best fit for him. Clady, a rookie first-rounder, has been similarly impressive this season, surpassing early expectations by staunchly protecting Cutler's blind side. Porter is a veteran of the trench wars and has subtle tricks up his sleeve that Clady has yet to face. He'll have a strength advantage, and has a feel for when to unload a bull rush after setting up a lineman with speed. Porter also has a non-stop engine, so the rookie had better be prepared for a 60-minute battle and avoid letting up for even one play.
Keys to
Success
1 Keep Ginn going: Last week's breakout game (seven receptions, 175 yards) offered a glimpse of what the previous regime saw in Ginn when it selected him in the first round of last year's draft. He remains a raw route runner and isn't physical enough in any phase, but Ginn is a big play waiting to happen. Pennington's lack of arm strength limits Ginn's downfield abilities, but the receiver still runs posts, streaks and fades to keep defenses honest. And Pennington's ability to hit his receivers in stride can unlock Ginn's after-the-catch potential. With CB Champ Bailey out, Ginn should draw favorable matchups this week.
2 Pound the rock: No reason to get cute here. Even if the Dolphins fall behind, they can't afford to abandon the run game. The Broncos are soft inside, and they may be even more vulnerable on the edges this week. In particular, DE Elvis Dumervil simply lacks the bulk to hold the point. Whether the Broncos stay in their base 4-3 front or use a 3-4 (an occasional tactic), their contain defenders will be overmatched against Dolphins LT Jake Long and RT Vernon Carey. And with Brown and Williams rotating to keep each other fresh, a Denver defense that is prone to wearing down and giving up long runs could have serious problems.
3 Be the more physical team: On the road and facing a Mike Shanahan-coached team that has had two weeks to prepare, the Dolphins need an equalizer. Here it is: muscle, particularly in the trenches. The Broncos' offensive line has been very good, but it relies on finesse -- a stark contrast to Miami's stout three-man front and bulky linebackers. On the flip side, the Dolphins' offensive line must exploit its massive matchup advantage and establish its physical dominance from the opening drive. This team isn't built to play catch-up, so it must come out swinging and land the first punch.
Keys to
Success
1 Quiet the Wildcat: Though Miami's offense has gotten by relying on a gimmicky wrinkle, that wrinkle has been undeniably effective. And because the Broncos can be overpowered in the trenches, don't tackle well and lack discipline in their assignments, they're a prime candidate to be gashed by the Wildcat. Only Baltimore has been able to shut down the Dolphins when Brown has lined up behind center, and that is because the Ravens were quick to adjust to the formation and were willing to blitz heavily. The reality is that Baltimore may have the league's best front seven while Denver's is one of its worst, but the Broncos could have some success with a similar approach.
2 Exploit every weapon: Before the Broncos' bye, their legitimate pass-catching options had dwindled to just WR Brandon Marshall. WRs Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley and TE Tony Scheffler should be healed and rested enough by Sunday to give Cutler a far superior assortment of weapons than he had while slumping a bit in Weeks 6 and 7. Cutler has sometimes lapsed into a habit of locking onto Marshall, but he has been far more efficient spreading the ball around -- a tactic that should be especially effective against a weak Dolphins secondary. Cutler should be able to find a matchup -- or two -- that favors his receivers on most every snap Sunday.
3 Scrap the 3-4: The Broncos have incorporated some three-man fronts to complement their base package, but they lack the personnel (nose tackle and sturdy outside linebackers) to make an odd front work. The wrinkle was somewhat effective a few weeks ago because opponents weren't ready for it, but the experiment needs to be shelved. DT Dewayne Robertson and the Jets parted ways because he wasn't a good fit in the middle of a 3-4, but Denver continues to use him in the role. The outside linebackers lack ideal power and pass-rush skills for the scheme. The 3-4 requires specialized personnel and can't be taught overnight, elements the Broncos' coaching staff seem to have forgotten.
Scouts Edge
This matchup is interesting because logic suggests Miami should run all over Denver's defense and that the Broncos should pick apart the Dolphins' secondary. Both of those scenarios very well could unfold, but the battles on the line slightly favor Miami -- and that always is significant. These teams feature some of the league's worst special-teams units, so a game-turning play could occur in that phase of the game -- and it could be an ugly one. But with Shanahan getting an extra week of preparation and the teams squaring off in Denver (where the home crowd and altitude can be brutal on visitors), the Broncos should pull out a very close game.
Prediction
Miami 23
Denver 27
When: Sunday, 7:05 PM EST (really?)
Watch: CBS
Preview
More scouting reports: Week 9
Scouts Inc. Position Advantage
QB - DEN
RB - MIA
WR - DEN
OL - DEN
DL - MIA
LB - MIA
DB - MIA
ST - DEN
Coach - MIA (again?)
Miami hosted Buffalo last week and secured a crucial AFC East win. It's safe to say that the Dolphins, coming off a one-win season, already have surpassed expectations. Last year is now ancient history, and the new regime has instilled a much different attitude. A team opponents used to look forward to facing has gotten much tougher, especially in the trenches. Denver, on the other hand, was shown some mercy by the schedule after being utterly embarrassed by New England in Week 7. The Broncos have lost two in a row, but remain in the thick of the playoff race thanks to the weak AFC West.
When Miami has the ball
Though we're sure to see the Wildcat offense Sunday in Denver, the Dolphins probably won't need it to force their run game down the throats of the Broncos. Two strong running backs and a good young offensive line execute a power zone scheme that makes up the foundation of Miami's offense. A run-first operation will be as grounded as ever this week, with the Dolphins hoping to exploit the Broncos' shoddy run defense and to keep QB Jay Cutler off the field.
Miami lacks dangerous weapons, but the offense has some useful tools. WR Ted Ginn's deep speed must be respected. QB Chad Pennington is accurate and efficient in the short and intermediate zones, and he gets the ball out quickly to avoid sacks. WR Greg Camarillo is a crisp route runner with excellent hands. TE Anthony Fasano should be involved against a Broncos defense that has had trouble handling opposing tight ends. RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are good receivers, too. The Dolphins allowed only one sack last week, but the line will need to stay sharp to hold off a surging Broncos pass rush.
When Denver has the ball
Cutler should carve up this defense. With a suspect secondary, the Dolphins allow far too many big pass plays. Those back-end issues limit Miami's play calling and force coordinator Paul Pasqualoni to stay away from a lot of five- and six-man pressures. The good news for the Dolphins: The pass rush continues to improve, even with the team usually rushing only four out of its 3-4 scheme. (OLB Joey Porter, the league's sack leader, has been reborn under the new coaching staff.) It will be imperative for Miami to find ways to pressure Cutler.
Because the Broncos' passing game is so dangerous, it's very unlikely that the Dolphins will be able to consistently align an eighth defender in the box -- and that's a problem. The middle of the field has been more accessible for opponents since NT Jason Ferguson (ribs) went down. To eliminate cutback lanes created by the Broncos' zone running game, the Dolphins need to be sound in their tackling and gap discipline. Denver's usual revolving door at running back could open for RB Ryan Torain, a one-cut power runner whose style fits the scheme exceptionally well but who lacks experience at this level.
Matchup to watch
Broncos LT Ryan Clady vs. Dolphins OLB Joey Porter
Porter had two sacks last week (one resulting in a safety) and has been a terror all season in Miami's 3-4 scheme, which clearly is the best fit for him. Clady, a rookie first-rounder, has been similarly impressive this season, surpassing early expectations by staunchly protecting Cutler's blind side. Porter is a veteran of the trench wars and has subtle tricks up his sleeve that Clady has yet to face. He'll have a strength advantage, and has a feel for when to unload a bull rush after setting up a lineman with speed. Porter also has a non-stop engine, so the rookie had better be prepared for a 60-minute battle and avoid letting up for even one play.
Keys to
Success
1 Keep Ginn going: Last week's breakout game (seven receptions, 175 yards) offered a glimpse of what the previous regime saw in Ginn when it selected him in the first round of last year's draft. He remains a raw route runner and isn't physical enough in any phase, but Ginn is a big play waiting to happen. Pennington's lack of arm strength limits Ginn's downfield abilities, but the receiver still runs posts, streaks and fades to keep defenses honest. And Pennington's ability to hit his receivers in stride can unlock Ginn's after-the-catch potential. With CB Champ Bailey out, Ginn should draw favorable matchups this week.
2 Pound the rock: No reason to get cute here. Even if the Dolphins fall behind, they can't afford to abandon the run game. The Broncos are soft inside, and they may be even more vulnerable on the edges this week. In particular, DE Elvis Dumervil simply lacks the bulk to hold the point. Whether the Broncos stay in their base 4-3 front or use a 3-4 (an occasional tactic), their contain defenders will be overmatched against Dolphins LT Jake Long and RT Vernon Carey. And with Brown and Williams rotating to keep each other fresh, a Denver defense that is prone to wearing down and giving up long runs could have serious problems.
3 Be the more physical team: On the road and facing a Mike Shanahan-coached team that has had two weeks to prepare, the Dolphins need an equalizer. Here it is: muscle, particularly in the trenches. The Broncos' offensive line has been very good, but it relies on finesse -- a stark contrast to Miami's stout three-man front and bulky linebackers. On the flip side, the Dolphins' offensive line must exploit its massive matchup advantage and establish its physical dominance from the opening drive. This team isn't built to play catch-up, so it must come out swinging and land the first punch.
Keys to
Success
1 Quiet the Wildcat: Though Miami's offense has gotten by relying on a gimmicky wrinkle, that wrinkle has been undeniably effective. And because the Broncos can be overpowered in the trenches, don't tackle well and lack discipline in their assignments, they're a prime candidate to be gashed by the Wildcat. Only Baltimore has been able to shut down the Dolphins when Brown has lined up behind center, and that is because the Ravens were quick to adjust to the formation and were willing to blitz heavily. The reality is that Baltimore may have the league's best front seven while Denver's is one of its worst, but the Broncos could have some success with a similar approach.
2 Exploit every weapon: Before the Broncos' bye, their legitimate pass-catching options had dwindled to just WR Brandon Marshall. WRs Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley and TE Tony Scheffler should be healed and rested enough by Sunday to give Cutler a far superior assortment of weapons than he had while slumping a bit in Weeks 6 and 7. Cutler has sometimes lapsed into a habit of locking onto Marshall, but he has been far more efficient spreading the ball around -- a tactic that should be especially effective against a weak Dolphins secondary. Cutler should be able to find a matchup -- or two -- that favors his receivers on most every snap Sunday.
3 Scrap the 3-4: The Broncos have incorporated some three-man fronts to complement their base package, but they lack the personnel (nose tackle and sturdy outside linebackers) to make an odd front work. The wrinkle was somewhat effective a few weeks ago because opponents weren't ready for it, but the experiment needs to be shelved. DT Dewayne Robertson and the Jets parted ways because he wasn't a good fit in the middle of a 3-4, but Denver continues to use him in the role. The outside linebackers lack ideal power and pass-rush skills for the scheme. The 3-4 requires specialized personnel and can't be taught overnight, elements the Broncos' coaching staff seem to have forgotten.
Scouts Edge
This matchup is interesting because logic suggests Miami should run all over Denver's defense and that the Broncos should pick apart the Dolphins' secondary. Both of those scenarios very well could unfold, but the battles on the line slightly favor Miami -- and that always is significant. These teams feature some of the league's worst special-teams units, so a game-turning play could occur in that phase of the game -- and it could be an ugly one. But with Shanahan getting an extra week of preparation and the teams squaring off in Denver (where the home crowd and altitude can be brutal on visitors), the Broncos should pull out a very close game.
Prediction
Miami 23
Denver 27