The latest poll doesn't look good

[Needa Pass Rush]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten
Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

View Results From Prior Days

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.

[theAPAOps5]

I knew this would get posted. Its two polls out of the whole bunch. Thats why you don't count the polls with huge digits and polls that are close.

I would say Obama has about a 6pt lead. You are dreaming if you think this means its closer than it is.

[Old Dude]

Yeah, but here's Zogby showing that Obama has opened up a 9.6 point lead.

http://www.zogby.com/

Rasmussen shows Obama at +6

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Fox has Obama at +9

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/102208_poll.pdf

ABCnews has Obama at +11

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1077a5Tracking3.pdf



Gallup has Obama at +9 or at between +5 and +8 among most likely voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

So the polls are all over the place, but most of them show Obama with some kind of lead, and that's been consistent all month.

[Paladin]

Know what? None of those mean a thing.

The issue is howthe vote goes state-by-state. There have been some recent examples of winning the Presodency but not have the majority of the popular vote. To get the EC votes, Obama has to win only 50.1% of the votes cast in that state. I admit that I hope Obama wins the popular vote and the EC, but I really most of all want him to win the EC.

If you look at the state races, many Repugnicans are having serious difficulties in their campaigns. (In Colorado, it looks like Udall has swamped Schaeffer. Schaeffer wont quit, but he wont win, either. Colorado is going Blue. Frankly, as long as Musgrave is retired, the rest will take care of itself.)

National poll nunbers are interesting but predictive of nothing. The popular vote in National elections is usually within a point of two at the end, anyway.

[Rigs11]

repubs selective with their polls? i never heard such a thing..

[ak1971]

Know what? None of those mean a thing.

The issue is howthe vote goes state-by-state. There have been some recent examples of winning the Presodency but not have the majority of the popular vote. To get the EC votes, Obama has to win only 50.1% of the votes cast in that state. I admit that I hope Obama wins the popular vote and the EC, but I really most of all want him to win the EC.

If you look at the state races, many Repugnicans are having serious difficulties in their campaigns. (In Colorado, it looks like Udall has swamped Schaeffer. Schaeffer wont quit, but he wont win, either. Colorado is going Blue. Frankly, as long as Musgrave is retired, the rest will take care of itself.)

National poll nunbers are interesting but predictive of nothing. The popular vote in National elections is usually within a point of two at the end, anyway.


i think i posted this before..http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Paladin]

Didn't know you did.

[bronclvr]

AP poll: Candidates running nearly even

Neck-and-neck results are a departure from many recent national polls

WASHINGTON - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as Republican-leaning voters drifted home to their party.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the United States through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before the Nov. 4 election.

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Differing survey results
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.

A post-debates bump for McCain?
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?"

Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.
Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.
Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.
Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.
Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.
McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.

Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters.

A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.

Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.

Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.

Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tennessee: "I've got respect for them but that's the extent of it. I don't have a whole lot of affinity toward either one of them. They're both part of the same political mess."

[Bronco X]

Know what? None of those mean a thing.

The issue is howthe vote goes state-by-state. There have been some recent examples of winning the Presodency but not have the majority of the popular vote. To get the EC votes, Obama has to win only 50.1% of the votes cast in that state. I admit that I hope Obama wins the popular vote and the EC, but I really most of all want him to win the EC.

If you look at the state races, many Repugnicans are having serious difficulties in their campaigns. (In Colorado, it looks like Udall has swamped Schaeffer. Schaeffer wont quit, but he wont win, either. Colorado is going Blue. Frankly, as long as Musgrave is retired, the rest will take care of itself.)

National poll nunbers are interesting but predictive of nothing. The popular vote in National elections is usually within a point of two at the end, anyway.

Exactly. The electoral college picture breaks down a bit like this: The states in play are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. McCain needs every last one of them to win, unless he seriously thinks he can get Pennsylvania, which he trails by double digits in some polls. Obama, on the other hand, would need only one of those states other than Nevada, while holding his lead in the others states, to win. He's ahead or tied all those states.

[Taco John]

Who cares about polls... All I need is Intrade:

<object width="500" height="500"><param name="movie" value="http://content.intrade.com/flash/us08/partner/loader.swf"/><param name="base" value="http://content.intrade.com/flash/us08/partner/"/><embed src="http://content.intrade.com/flash/us08/partner/loader.swf" base="http://content.intrade.com/flash/us08/partner/" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="500"/></object>

[cutthemdown]

What you do is poll the polls themselves. Then you have top use some complex equations using free radicals and Physics. In the end if that doesn't work you just wait until they announce a winner on TV.

[spdirty]

2 words: Bradley effect.

[Paladin]

Actually, I think Harry Potter is doing it to screw us over for all the bigots we have in this country.....

[Bronco Bob]

Democrat Barack Obama (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/barackobama) has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/johnmccain) in the presidential race to 10 points,
according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/2008candidates) released on Wednesday. Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among
likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from an 8-point advantage for Obama on Tuesday.
The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

It was the third consecutive day Obama gained ground on McCain as the two begin the final sprint to the November 4 election.

"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby.
"McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment."

The 10-point lead was the first time Obama's advantage over McCain, an Arizona senator, reached double-digits in the poll.
Obama's lead had floated between 2 and 6 points in the more than two weeks of polling until stretching to 8 points on Tuesday.

Obama made gains with two key swing voting blocs. His advantage with independent voters grew to a whopping 27 points from
15 points and his edge with women voters grew to 16 points from 13.

Obama, an Illinois senator, led among all age groups and in every income group except for the most wealthy voters.
He now has the support of 21 percent of self-described conservatives -- his best showing with those voters.


http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49J0LF20081022

[peacepipe]

I personally think it's a good thing,then all these jack*sses that say" since Obama is going to win I don't need to vote" will go out and vote.

[JCMElway]

2 words: Bradley effect.

Four words: STFU.

(Shut the Foneco Up.)

[theAPAOps5]

Hopefully America is past the Bradly effect. If not then I am embarrassed to be an American.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Hopefully America is past the Bradly effect. If not then I am embarrassed to be an American.

All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors (http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php) pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won. Election Analysis by Pollster Steve Lombardo

Pollster Steve Lombardo also has a nice analysis (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/14_days_to_go_and_no_change_in.php) of where the presidential election stands now. His major points: (1) Obama won the debates big time, (2) Obama is playing offense all over the map while McCain is playing defense, (3) Obama's massive fundraising is a huge advantage, and (4) more people identify as Democrats than as Republicans by an 8% margin. None of these factors look good for McCain.

[Atlas]

I wonder at this point we any idiot would still be undecided... I mean dude the election has been going on for a year now and you can't make up your mind on who to vote for?!?!?

[Drek]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten
Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

View Results From Prior Days

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.

That points out a pretty big hole in this polling data and this poll's previous history. No event in this election has generated a 20 point swing, or even a particularly legitimate 10 point swing.

Also, IBD/TIPP is so accurate that they don't even make fivethirtyeight.com's resource pool.

You want an accurate representation of the electoral landscape fivethirtyeight is where to get it.

[TailgateNut]

2 words: Bradley effect.

as expected.

[Garcia Bronco]

McCain's Palin pick is ulimately what has destroyed his campaign on the outside. Poor management and talking points and how the campaign was run in general is what's really done the damage.

[OrangeDoofus]

McCain's Palin pick is ulimately what has destroyed his campaign on the outside. Poor management and talking points and how the campaign was run in general is what's really done the damage.
I agree.

But in McCain's defense, he's representing the party in power at a time when the economy is really getting bad. It's hard for anyone to win in that situation, and I think any of the other Republican candidates would be doing worse if they'd been nominated.

[Bronco X]

Big Ten has a poll that has Obama up by 12 in Ohio, 11 in Pennsylvania, and 10 in Indiana.

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

The Indiana poll is big news, it'd been considered a safe state for McCain not long ago but if the poll is accurate, he's got another state he's got to worry about losing, when he's got to keep every state he can and win almost every single toss up state to have any hope of winning.

[Paladin]

I agree.

But in McCain's defense, he's representing the party in power at a time when the economy is really getting bad. It's hard for anyone to win in that situation, and I think any of the other Republican candidates would be doing worse if they'd been nominated.

And there is a massive disgust with Iraq and GEedubya's incalcitrance in to bringing that clusterf*** to an end....

[Garcia Bronco]

I agree.

But in McCain's defense, he's representing the party in power at a time when the economy is really getting bad. It's hard for anyone to win in that situation, and I think any of the other Republican candidates would be doing worse if they'd been nominated.

I disagree. I think Romney would have taken Obama and his lack of leadership experience to the task up and down the block. Even with McCain and a Romney VP pick would have faired better, but these Republicans decided to play the sexism game and they got their ass handed to them and we haven't even had an election yet.

What's gone on in the economic world is clearly the result of government and it's practices. I mean they pass a law like SOX(Republican Congress), and it doesn't even apply to quasi government publically traded companies like Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. This is governemnt at fault and market meddling. Then on top of that, we have Democrats resisting regulation into this Governemnt agency left and right. I think most Americans understand this.

[Mr.Meanie]

I disagree. I think Romney would have taken Obama and his lack of leadership experience to the task up and down the block. Even with McCain and a Romney VP pick would have faired better, but these Republicans decided to play the sexism game and they got their ass handed to them and we haven't even had an election yet.

What's gone on in the economic world is clearly the result of government and it's practices. I mean they pass a law like SOX(Republican Congress), and it doesn't even apply to quasi government publically traded companies like Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. This is governemnt at fault and market meddling. Then on top of that, we have Democrats resisting regulation into this Governemnt agency left and right. I think most Americans understand this.

Exactly.

With a Romney pick, they could be arguing that a successful self-made businessperson would be perfect for fixing the economic problems. I don't know if they would have won with that message, but it sure would have been a hell of a lot better than having Palin embarrass the crap out of all the conservatives.

I work with a number of republicans who hate Obama, but won't vote for McCain just because of Palin. Massive, massive blunder by McCain.

[Garcia Bronco]

I work with a number of republicans who hate Obama, but won't vote for McCain just because of Palin. Massive, massive blunder by McCain.

I am not a republican and I don't particularly like Obama's core beliefs, but there is no way that I can vote for McCain. It ultimately goes beyond the Palin pick, but it's a big piece of the pie.

[Drek]

Exactly.

With a Romney pick, they could be arguing that a successful self-made businessperson would be perfect for fixing the economic problems. I don't know if they would have won with that message, but it sure would have been a hell of a lot better than having Palin embarrass the crap out of all the conservatives.

I work with a number of republicans who hate Obama, but won't vote for McCain just because of Palin. Massive, massive blunder by McCain.

You do know that Romney received a huge boost up thanks to his father being a former governor, CEO of GM, etc. right?

He's made smart fiscal moves with the assets given but that doesn't mean he's self made by any stretch.

[NaptownChief]

Hopefully America is past the Bradly effect. If not then I am embarrassed to be an American.

You would hope but you have to ask yourself why somebody would be claiming they would vote for Obama when they actually won't. Some would say it is just because they are "racist". But I think the far bigger factor is they are afraid if they say they aren't voting for him then ignorant race baiters will falsely brand them as such.

[ak1971]

Exactly.

With a Romney pick, they could be arguing that a successful self-made businessperson would be perfect for fixing the economic problems. I don't know if they would have won with that message, but it sure would have been a hell of a lot better than having Palin embarrass the crap out of all the conservatives.

I work with a number of republicans who hate Obama, but won't vote for McCain just because of Palin. Massive, massive blunder by McCain.

A Romney VP pick would have been the best IMHO. I wouldnt have been looking seriously at voting for some other yahoo thats for sure.

[baja]

All I got to say is if you are for Obama you better get out and vote

If you are for McCain don't bother to vote DieBolt will take care of it.

[Drek]

You would hope but you have to ask yourself why somebody would be claiming they would vote for Obama when they actually won't. Some would say it is just because they are "racist". But I think the far bigger factor is they are afraid if they say they aren't voting for him then ignorant race baiters will falsely brand them as such.

Do you even get what the Bradley Effect is?

Its polling error. People in the privacy of their homes just answering polling questions. It isn't a public statement of anything.

[Denver Crush]

All I got to say is if you are for Obama you better get out and vote

If you are for McCain don't bother to vote DieBolt will take care of it.


As such, I have stocked up on Ammo, food, and water.

[NaptownChief]

Do you even get what the Bradley Effect is?

Its polling error. People in the privacy of their homes just answering polling questions. It isn't a public statement of anything.



Do you even get when people call your home they have your name and phone number? That isn't exactly "privacy".

[OrangeDoofus]

I disagree. I think Romney would have taken Obama and his lack of leadership experience to the task up and down the block. Even with McCain and a Romney VP pick would have faired better, but these Republicans decided to play the sexism game and they got their ass handed to them and we haven't even had an election yet.
The problem with Romney is that the social conservatives hated him even more than they hated McCain.

[El Minion]

Who cares about polls... All I need is Intrade:


From Sept. 23 post (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep23.html) on Electoral-vote:

In general, the betting sites are lagging indicators with respect to the polls. When new polls come in, the bettors see that and adjust their bets accordingly. It doesn't work the other way (people responding to pollsters don't do so on the basis of what they saw on Intrade). Like the polls, the betting sites have a mixed record. For example, bettors thought the Republicans would win the Senate in 2006. Didn't happen. Nevertheless, this is a new data point to toss into the hopper.

Today we see the following differences between the polling data (this site) and the betting data (Intrade). Polling puts McCain ahead in Nevada but the bettors are saying Obama will take the Silver State. In contrast, polling puts Obama ahead in Virginia but the bettors think McCain will win Old Dominion in the end. Polling is neutral on Ohio but the betters give the Buckeye state to McCain. Based on the polling data, Obama wins the election 282 to 236 with Ohio too close to call. Intrade says it will be Obama 278 to 260.

[frerottenextelway]

Regarding this poll, look at the highlighted portion below:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3009/2966814135_fbcaab9568_o.png

[frerottenextelway]

2 words: Bradley effect.

Obama out performed polls overall in the primary. It appears judging from that and early voting that there may be a reverse Bradly effect.

[Bronco Bob]

You would hope but you have to ask yourself why somebody would be claiming they would vote for Obama when they actually won't. Some would say it is just because they are "racist". But I think the far bigger factor is they are afraid if they say they aren't voting for him then ignorant race baiters will falsely brand them as such.

I just don't understand why someone would lie to a pollster.
It's someone calling them on the phone. They can't even
see the person calling them. They are never going to hear
from this person again. Why should they care if someone
they don't even know thinks they are a racist. Why would
someone think of themselves as being a racist in the first place?
Most racists aren't even aware they are racists.

I could see someone in a mixed race group maybe being afraid
to speak up. But someone calling them on the phone?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

I just don't understand why someone would lie to a pollster.
It's someone calling them on the phone. They can't even
see the person calling them. They are never going to hear
from this person again. Why should they care if someone
they don't even know thinks they are a racist. Why would
someone think of themselves as being a racist in the first place?
Most racists aren't even aware they are racists.

I could see someone in a mixed race group maybe being afraid
to speak up. But someone calling them on the phone?

All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win

Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France than the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly, Catholic New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors (http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php) pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

[Bronco Bob]

From Sept. 23 post (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep23.html) on Electoral-vote:


Today we see the following differences between the polling data (this site) and the betting data (Intrade). Polling puts McCain ahead in Nevada but the bettors are saying Obama will take the Silver State. In contrast, polling puts Obama ahead in Virginia but the bettors think McCain will win Old Dominion in the end. Polling is neutral on Ohio but the betters give the Buckeye state to McCain. Based on the polling data, Obama wins the election 282 to 236 with Ohio too close to call. Intrade says it will be Obama 278 to 260.

Not sure what poll they are looking at. CNN/Time has Obama up by 5 in Nevada
and Rasmussen also has Obama up by 5. Maybe the bettors trust these
polls more.

[snowspot66]

Regarding this poll, look at the highlighted portion below:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3009/2966814135_fbcaab9568_o.png

That has to be the mother of all misprints or else it's complete horse****. Are they polling at Bob Jones University or something?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

That has to be the mother of all misprints or else it's complete horse****. Are they polling at Bob Jones University or something?

Hilarious!

[Bronco Bob]

That has to be the mother of all misprints or else it's complete horse****. Are they polling at Bob Jones University or something?

Notice also that it is only 4%. Maybe they just polled those guys with
the letters painted on their chests that spelled MAVERICK.

[frerottenextelway]

Notice also that it is only 4%. Maybe they just polled those guys with
the letters painted on their chests that spelled MAVERICK.

It's more than 4% (although I'm sure still small). The 4% number is the ''undecided'' in the age group.

And no, it's not a misprint - it's just a sh!tty poll!

[Bronco Bob]

It's more than 4% (although I'm sure still small). The 4% number is the ''undecided'' in the age group.

And no, it's not a misprint - it's just a sh!tty poll!

Oops. Just had a senior moment there. I was thinking of
the exit polls they were doing in the primaries, where there
was a breakdown of age groups, and what percent of
each age group voted for each candidate.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

NYT: Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24poll.html?hp)

[frerottenextelway]

Obama is up to 96.3% chance of winning at 538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html).

This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

...

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain

...

[El Minion]

Not sure what poll they are looking at. CNN/Time has Obama up by 5 in Nevada
and Rasmussen also has Obama up by 5. Maybe the bettors trust these
polls more.

Maybe I should have left the second paragraph out, the full quote was from a 9/23 post, which on 9/23 had McCain leading in NV then, obviously not today which the bettors had right then.

[mhgaffney]

McCain's Palin pick is ulimately what has destroyed his campaign on the outside. Poor management and talking points and how the campaign was run in general is what's really done the damage.

The fact that McCain wants war after war around the planet didn't help him, either.

If YOU think 100 years of war is good for our nation -- then vote McCain.

If not, then don't. Simple as that.

[Spider]

You would hope but you have to ask yourself why somebody would be claiming they would vote for Obama when they actually won't. Some would say it is just because they are "racist". But I think the far bigger factor is they are afraid if they say they aren't voting for him then ignorant race baiters will falsely brand them as such.

this has what to do with the bradly effect ?
:mullet2: :mullet2:

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

2 words: Bradley effect.

Pretty sad when an appeal to racism is the GOP's only hope. :oyvey:

(But that's just business as usual, isn't it?)

[Play2win]

Pretty sad when an appeal to racism is the GOP's only hope. :oyvey:

(But that's just business as usual, isn't it?)

That from members of the party that originally abolished it... Its really a crying shame that they still use the same title that meant something so much different all those many years ago...

[Garcia Bronco]

The fact that McCain wants war after war around the planet didn't help him, either.

If YOU think 100 years of war is good for our nation -- then vote McCain.

If not, then don't. Simple as that.

You are talking about a comment taken completely out of context. We have to, and Obama is the same, be prepared to carry the big stick.

[Old Dude]

Good article on discrepancies in the polls:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/ap/politics/main4542094.shtml