Have the Internets Killed AtwaterRove Politics?

[Rohirrim]

It has occurred to me over and over again that McCain's effort at Atwater/Rove politics is failing miserably. I've been trying to figure out what may be the cause. Is it just because the economy is so bad, and America is blaming that on the GOP, that McCain has no shot at the WH no matter what he does? I don't think so. I think it's the internets.

Anybody from about fifty years on down has been working on computers for the majority of their working lives. Every generation, the numbers of people deeply involved in technology expands. The parallel to this is that every year more and more people are entering the internet for their informational needs. Hell, my mother in law (who is 86) spends much of her day on her email and Face page talking to her church cohorts.

This is the change that has taken place that Obama has picked up on, but the Bush operatives running McCain's campaign have missed. When you launch a smear into the ethers and it starts being publicized, what do Americans do, just sit on their couches nodding? Well, the ones who do are the ones we saw in the Al Jazeera video who are content to be told what to do and what to think, but their numbers are dwindling every four years. I believe the greatest number of Americans run right to their computer and punch up the internet.

They read all they can about Ayers, or Obama's dad, or his birthplace, or the U.S.S. Forrestal or any other controversy that pops up, and then they make their own decision. After that, it doesn't matter how many ads you buy or how many push calls you make, the Americans who have googled just nod their heads and say to themselves, "I already know all about that."

Fear mongering can only exist in an informational vacuum.

So, here's to the internets, as powerful a tool as the Gutenberg press, and just as history changing. :thumbs:

[alkemical]

At the speed of light, policies and political parties yield place to charismatic images. - Marshall mcLuhan

[Rohirrim]

At the speed of light, policies and political parties yield place to charismatic images. - Marshall mcLuhan

But the internet is far more interactive than what McLuhan was talking about. He was talking about the domination of the airwaves, and the images they chose for us to see, by the networks. (See Network ;D). The internet goes far beyond those limitations. That's why I compare it to Gutenberg's press. Before Gutenberg, the church dominated the dialogue. Suddenly, Gutenberg started printing bibles and everyone who could afford a copy (and suddenly copies were twenty times cheaper) was doing their own interpretation of scripture. They no longer needed the church, or the priest, to tell them what it meant. This created a revolution called Protestantism. I'm betting the Internet has just as large an impact. It's already eroding the old power base in China.

[NaptownChief]

Is it just because the economy is so bad, and America is blaming that on the GOP, that McCain has no shot at the WH no matter what he does? I don't think so. I think it's the internets.




First of all the Gallop is just 2 points apart. That despite the market crash in which has hurt McCain and the GOP ten times as much as anything.

So if he is within reach in a year that this should have been the easiest victory for the Democrats because of the Bush's unpopularity, with the market meltdown piled on top of that tells me you are way off base.

I still expect an Obomba win but the fact that it is probably going to be even realtively close tells me you are digging for wishful thinking.

If Bush wasn't so unpopular and the market didn't meltdown with this financial crisis Obomba and the Dems would probably be getting killed right now.

[alkemical]

But the internet is far more interactive than what McLuhan was talking about. He was talking about the domination of the airwaves, and the images they chose for us to see, by the networks. (See Network ;D). The internet goes far beyond those limitations. That's why I compare it to Gutenberg's press. Before Gutenberg, the church dominated the dialogue. Suddenly, Gutenberg started printing bibles and everyone who could afford a copy (and suddenly copies were twenty times cheaper) was doing their own interpretation of scripture. They no longer needed the church, or the priest, to tell them what it meant. This created a revolution called Protestantism. I'm betting the Internet has just as large an impact. It's already eroding the old power base in China.

Ahso, but McLuhan "knew" of this - it's why he covered radio/telephone communication and TV communication - the whole "medium is the message" thing. (With telephone and TV it is not so much the message as the sender that is “sent.” - M.M.)

I'm not disagreeing with you - i'm just using his quote to illustrate how - now you have a marketplace to reinforce your own programming. If you have viewpointX - there most likely is a "portal" for you to visit that will be "comfortable".

I mean, programming isn't a timeslot ;o)


You know what's funny - is that Mcluhan was right though - the more "advanced" we are becoming - with the internet, etc - our dialog is reverting back to pure symbology. I mean look at txt. You have a new language that is sort of shorthand - it's symbol based, the internet is interactive - but it's symbol derived.

Electric Cave paintings. ;o)

[Paladin]

You have a point, but it can also be used by evildoers. Porn purveyors, criminal gangs and the terrorists all have access to communication means to manipulate people. But the power of information is clear. But there are pockets of ignorance in the US that will resist knowing things. They will remain problematic for a number of years. Don't underestimate the power of stupid. I give you the "Sarah Phenomenon" and naptown as proof.

[Rohirrim]

First of all the Gallop is just 2 points apart. That despite the market crash in which has hurt McCain and the GOP ten times as much as anything.

So if he is within reach in a year that this should have been the easiest victory for the Democrats because of the Bush's unpopularity, with the market meltdown piled on top of that tells me you are way off base.

I still expect an Obomba win but the fact that it is probably going to be even realtively close tells me you are digging for wishful thinking.

If Bush wasn't so unpopular and the market didn't meltdown with this financial crisis Obomba and the Dems would probably be getting killed right now.

The RCP average has him at 6.8. Most pundits I hear now, including those on the Right, are using words like "possible tsunami." Talk about wishful thinking.

Besides, the dirtier McCain gets, the more his poll numbers drop. Why? I think it's because people have already made their minds up about the smear attacks, done the research, and feel insulted that the Right continues to try to trick them into believing otherwise.

[NaptownChief]

The RCP average has him at 6.8. Most pundits I hear now, including those on the Right, are using words like "possible tsunami." Talk about wishful thinking.



We will soon see, but I have a feeling it may not be the early evening on Nov 4th that you are hoping for.

[Rohirrim]

We will soon see, but I have a feeling it may not be the early evening on Nov 4th that you are hoping for.

When VA, NC and GA go Obama, it will be over

[Paladin]

Nappy, your "feelngs" have never panned out, have they? If they ever did, what are you doing on the internet? Go invest.....

[alkemical]

You have a point, but it can also be used by evildoers. Porn purveyors, criminal gangs and the terrorists all have access to communication means to manipulate people. But the power of information is clear. But there are pockets of ignorance in the US that will resist knowing things. They will remain problematic for a number of years. Don't underestimate the power of stupid. I give you the "Sarah Phenomenon" and naptown as proof.


We still have an extension of that with books themselves. I mean, books today are still being banned.

http://www.amazon.com/Recently-Banned-and-Challenged-Books-2008/lm/R32AAHVKMKJIWY

[Rohirrim]

You have a point, but it can also be used by evildoers. Porn purveyors, criminal gangs and the terrorists all have access to communication means to manipulate people. But the power of information is clear. But there are pockets of ignorance in the US that will resist knowing things. They will remain problematic for a number of years. Don't underestimate the power of stupid. I give you the "Sarah Phenomenon" and naptown as proof.

That's always been the case. The law is always on the run, trying to keep up with the criminals.

As far as the dummies thing goes, as more and more people get more and more informed, ignorance ceases to be popular. The "pockets" get smaller and smaller. Plus, sheer attrition clears out a lot of old prejudices and ignorances.

[alkemical]

That's always been the case. The law is always on the run, trying to keep up with the criminals.

As far as the dummies thing goes, as more and more people get more and more informed, ignorance ceases to be popular. The "pockets" get smaller and smaller. Plus, sheer attrition clears out a lot of old prejudices and ignorances.

Informed about what? :)

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2175/2456058818_a91e60096d.jpg

[Old Dude]

There have been a lot of studies about the effect of negative campaign ads, and they seem to have reached the following consensus.

1. They do tend to energize the "base" of the person launching the attacks. It makes them more fearful of the other guy, and more likely that they'll vote for their own guy (even if they aren't that enthusiastic about him) just to avoid the "evil enemy." That's why you see a lot of mcCain's more conservative supporters wanting to see him fight even harder and spin out even more negativity.

2. There is a "depressive" effect against the voter turnout of the "target." This is almost always more effective against democrats than republicans. It's a fact of life that republicans always show up at the polls in greater percentages (in terms of their registered numbers.) Even if they aren't excited about the top of the ticket, they still have a major interest in local tax issues, ballot issues and local races. Dems have a lot of youth, minorities and poor people, who, for whatever reason, have a harder time getting organized and motivated. So they are more vulnerable to negativity.

3. Research also shows that negative attacks have remarkably little effect, one way or the other, on independents. They just aren't as vested in the ideology. And what may seem like a powerful negative attack to a rank-and-filer just doesn't mean that much to them. They are probably also more cynical to start with. And they generally tend to view mud-slinging as mud-slinging. And not much more.

McCain and Obama have both launched negative attacks on each other. In McCain's case, it's a much higher percent of his overall campaign resources, but Obama has three or four times the financial war chest. So Obama can match the MCain negative ads on a tit for tat basis while still appearing to run a predominantly positive campaign (because about 60% of his ads are "positive.") McCain doesn't have the finnacial luxury of splitting his resources like that.

This is one of the reasons why Obama is doing so much better with independents.

Regardless, most of this is probably trumped by the economy in this particular election.

[Spider]

When VA, NC and GA go Obama, it will be over

I am in VA right now ......... I think Obama has a strong chance of winning this state . Judging by the local media ( quick little comments from Disk Jockeys , people caling in etc ) ....... Right now I would say judging from the call ins to local radio talk shows .... 51-48 in favor of Obama here

[Spider]

And these Jim Webb ads are powerful . Webb is a powerful ally

[Paladin]

Obama takes Va, and it is likely over by 9:05 PM Colorado Time. I think they have to wait until the polls in Californa close becore they start putting out numbers and projecting winners.........

[Bronco Bob]

First of all the Gallop is just 2 points apart.

How nice. You found 1 poll that has them close. Rasmussen has them 4 points apart.
Zogby has them 5 points apart. The other Gallup poll has them 6 points apart.
Hotline has them 10 points apart. CBS has them 14 points apart.
Average all the polls together has Real Clear Politics has them 6.9 points apart.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

How nice. You found 1 poll that has them close. Rasmussen has them 4 points apart.
Zogby has them 5 points apart. The other Gallup poll has them 6 points apart.
Hotline has them 10 points apart. CBS has them 14 points apart.
Average all the polls together has Real Clear Politics has them 6.9 points apart.

And that, sir, is why you can't trust republicans.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Wave Of McCain Robocalls Reported, Some May Violate State Law 10/18 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/massive-rnc-robocall-may_n_135348.html)

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

THE LAST REFUGE OF A SCOUNDREL.... When McCain/Palin offer sleazy attacks in a speech, it's easy to hold them accountable. When they offer scurrilous lies in a television ad, it's almost as easy, especially with the whole "approve this message" line and media scrutiny of campaign advertising. But McCain, Palin, and the Republican Smear Machine save some of their most offensive work for automated robocalls, which fly just below the radar screen. It's obviously abject cowardice, but decency and honor are the last things McCain is worried about now. 10/18 (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015222.php)

[OrangeDoofus]

You might be right, Ro. It's hard to separate everything out, but it's definitely interesting how little effect all the mudslinging from the right has had.

[ZONA]

I think alot of people are totally failing to realize the biggest impact of the Obama campaign.

OBAMA himself. He is the #1 reason why he is leading this race. Sure his campaign was very well put together. Sure the economic crisis has helped him (even though he was still leading before the bail out talk) and the fact that McCain has voted with Bush on so many accounts has helped. But let's give a little credit to Obama the man. He's a very intelligent man, a good father, good husband, a true patriot. Despite what smears the right is trying to push out there, he is an honest passionate leader and I for one truly believe he wants to help American's of all types, not make corporate america richer. I think alot of American's see this same thing and that's why he is leading.