IndianaBronco
09-24-2008, 02:01 PM
The first details Ryan Clady's performance on the first drive at NO
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/cover-3/cover-3-oh-snap
The second is in Matt Millen article, but indicates that Denver has been the worst drafting team since 2001. Worse than Millen. Yikes.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/instant-analysis-millens-drafting-mistakes
Ryan Clady -- Better than Long in the Long Term?
New Orleans Saints 32 at Denver Broncos 34
While the direct snap is obviously the focus of this article, I also wanted to study the second left tackle taken in the 2008 draft behind Long: Boise State's Ryan Clady, who's been very impressive for the Broncos. Time constraints prevented me from making Clady more of a story this week, but I'll have a more in-depth focus later this season. For now, here's Denver's first touchdown drive against the Saints, and Clady's involvement in it.
On Denver's first run play of the game, a second-and-10 from the New Orleans 45 and 1:30 elapsed in the first quarter, Clady took Saints end Will Smith to the left as guard George Foster did the same with tackle Sedrick Ellis. This gave Selvin Young enough of a lane for a 9-yard gain. On the third-and-1 that followed, New Orleans moved nose tackle Kendrick Clancy over Hamilton as Broncos went I-formation. Tight end Tony Scheffler motioned left outside Clady. At the snap, Clady rode Smith outside and sealed him out as Michael Pittman ran inside for 2 yards and the first down.
First-and-10 from the New Orleans 34. Smith showed Clady something on this play, almost getting to Cutler and powering the rookie back from the snap. Nice straightforward drive by Smith here, but Cutler completed a 4-yard pass to Eddie Royal. Clady held Smith up at the point on the next play, showing great power to take all Smith had as Selvin Young came around left on a sweep. Smith tried to get around Clady to his right so that he could tackle Young, but Clady engaged him just long enough for Young to scoot by and gain 7 yards before being forced out of bounds by safety Roman Harper. Clady also got away with a pretty blatant face mask on this play. At this point, I'm giving the power advantage to Smith.
Two plays later, the Broncos had a second-and-7 at the Saints' 20. Nice protection here from Clady on a tight four-wide set, as he took Smith straight on with no threat to Cutler on an incomplete quick pass to Brandon Marshall. The incompletion was more about Mike McKenzie's coverage -- and judging by Jay Cutler's sign language, a blown out route as well.
Third-and-7, and Denver went three-wide from the shotgun. This is where I saw what Clady is capable of. Smith made an outside move and played right into Clady's hands. Smith was fanned out of the play with the kind of technique you don't expect to see from a rookie tackle. He's not quite Joe Thomas -- imagine the perfect arc of an opening door and you'll have an idea of Thomas' technique -- but Clady knew how long to keep Smith outside before pushing him completely out of the play back inside. Ellis almost had Hamilton beat inside, but Cutler stepped up in the pocket and hit Brandon Stokley for a 17-yard gain. The Broncos keep their drive going.
First-and-goal from the Saints' 3, and another good play for Clady. He handfought Smith at the line, only to head up to the second level to chip Randall Gay as Michael Pittman went up the middle for two yards and just short of a touchdown. Cutler hit Nate Jackson on the next play for a 1-yard score, and I was impressed that Clady didn't get lost in the aggression at the line, understood his read responsibility, and made that second block.
I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Clady, and doing a more thorough article later in the year. I like what I've seen in run- and pass-blocking. Clady is as agile as he is aggressive, making him a perfect fit for the Denver zone scheme. There are those who believe that Clady has the most potential of any of the tackles taken in the first round of this draft. We'll put him under the microscope as he gets more familiar with the NFL.
Posted by: Doug Farrar on 24 Sep 2008
INSTANT ANALYSIS: Millen's Drafting Mistakes
The departure of Matt Millen from the Lions organization today allows an entire city to finally have some hope that their football team might once again be relevant. For the emotionally unattached, it marks the close of an era of almost unmatched, awe-inspiring futility.
While tracking the futility is as simple as looking at the Lions' win-loss record, what's more interesting to look at is Millen's much-talked about failures on draft day. I don't need to retell the story of the four wide receivers at this point, so I won't. As mentioned previously in PFP, Millen's draft strategy focused on taking proven players on offense from big colleges in the first round of the draft; the only pick to not fit that mold was linebacker Ernie Sims.
Outside of selecting a pair of WAC defenders in Ikaika Alama-Francis and Gerald Alexander in the second round of the 2007 draft, Millen stayed with big schools in the second round, too. Here, all of his picks except for quarterback Drew Stanton and center Dominic Raiola were defensive players.
When Millen did reach for small-school players, they failed, with players like defensive back Keith Smith (3-73, 2004) and linebacker John Taylor (4-134, 2002) never making into the starting lineup.
While judging the quality of a draft is difficult and intrinsically tied to many variables, the best method we've come up with so far is Games Started Above Average, or GSAA. First explained in an ESPN story here, GSAA takes a player's games played and games started for each season since his selection, creates a seasonal average, and then compares it to the same data for all players of the same position taken within ten selections of that pick. The data is currently available for the DVOA era, so, for example, Tom Brady's 13.3 GSAA is figured by comparing the former 199th overall pick's games started per season (13.8) to those of all other quarterbacks taken from 1995 through 2007 with picks ranging from 189 to 209. They averaged 0.5 starts per season.
While work still needs to be done on creating positional baselines for expected career length and attempting to adjust for player performance, GSAA is a metric that answers, in a very simple way, what it's supposed to: How much better was this pick than players chosen at similar times? It will not surprise you that, since 2001, Millen's ranked amongst the worst drafters in all of football.
Team Avg GSAA
DEN -0.36
PIT -0.32
DET -0.31
MIN -0.20
SEA -0.16
HOU 0.86
NYJ 0.89
BUF 0.89
IND 1.02
BAL 1.22
What's surprising, though, is the makeup of his drafts and why he's failed. If you compare Millen's Day One picks to other teams, the Lions GSAA is 0.05 -- basically neutral. In fact, the late-nineties Lions, with players like Reggie D. Brown, Stockar McDougle, and Aaron Gibson, were actually worse first-round selectors than Millen! That seems strange to say, but when you consider Millen's first-round picks, Kevin Jones, Jeff Backus, Sims, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and even Joey Harrington all became starters in the league. While some have been more successful than others, and Jones and Harrington have lost their starting gigs this year, that essentially washes out with the disaster picks.
It's actually on Day Two of the draft that Millen's struggles rear their head. In the fourth round and beyond since 2001, only Seattle has been worse at finding starters than Detroit, whose picks have averaged -0.61 GSAA.
Looking at the players Millen selected, it's easy to see why. Of Millen's 34 Day Two picks, not one is still a starter in the league. His best pick was Terrence Holt (5-137, 2003), who started 43 games and is now a street free agent. Linebacker James Davis was taken seven picks later and started 30 games in three seasons, but was cut by the Lions and couldn't find a spot; he's now a phys. ed coach. Kelly Butler started for a little over a season and is now on the Cardinals' practice squad. And these are the successes!
Matt Millen's professional obituaries will list his famous skill-position busts, and there's every reason to think that they should; with each year that Mike Williams and Charles Rogers aren't in the league catching passes for the Lions and guys like Braylon Edwards or, ironically, Calvin Johnson are, their GSAA will look worse and worse. At the moment, though? It's Millen's performance on Day Two that really marks his draft performance as being an abject failure.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 24 Sep 2008
Re: INSTANT ANALYSIS: Millen's Drafting Mistakes
by James-London :: Wed, 09/24/2008 - 2:04pm
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/cover-3/cover-3-oh-snap
The second is in Matt Millen article, but indicates that Denver has been the worst drafting team since 2001. Worse than Millen. Yikes.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/instant-analysis-millens-drafting-mistakes
Ryan Clady -- Better than Long in the Long Term?
New Orleans Saints 32 at Denver Broncos 34
While the direct snap is obviously the focus of this article, I also wanted to study the second left tackle taken in the 2008 draft behind Long: Boise State's Ryan Clady, who's been very impressive for the Broncos. Time constraints prevented me from making Clady more of a story this week, but I'll have a more in-depth focus later this season. For now, here's Denver's first touchdown drive against the Saints, and Clady's involvement in it.
On Denver's first run play of the game, a second-and-10 from the New Orleans 45 and 1:30 elapsed in the first quarter, Clady took Saints end Will Smith to the left as guard George Foster did the same with tackle Sedrick Ellis. This gave Selvin Young enough of a lane for a 9-yard gain. On the third-and-1 that followed, New Orleans moved nose tackle Kendrick Clancy over Hamilton as Broncos went I-formation. Tight end Tony Scheffler motioned left outside Clady. At the snap, Clady rode Smith outside and sealed him out as Michael Pittman ran inside for 2 yards and the first down.
First-and-10 from the New Orleans 34. Smith showed Clady something on this play, almost getting to Cutler and powering the rookie back from the snap. Nice straightforward drive by Smith here, but Cutler completed a 4-yard pass to Eddie Royal. Clady held Smith up at the point on the next play, showing great power to take all Smith had as Selvin Young came around left on a sweep. Smith tried to get around Clady to his right so that he could tackle Young, but Clady engaged him just long enough for Young to scoot by and gain 7 yards before being forced out of bounds by safety Roman Harper. Clady also got away with a pretty blatant face mask on this play. At this point, I'm giving the power advantage to Smith.
Two plays later, the Broncos had a second-and-7 at the Saints' 20. Nice protection here from Clady on a tight four-wide set, as he took Smith straight on with no threat to Cutler on an incomplete quick pass to Brandon Marshall. The incompletion was more about Mike McKenzie's coverage -- and judging by Jay Cutler's sign language, a blown out route as well.
Third-and-7, and Denver went three-wide from the shotgun. This is where I saw what Clady is capable of. Smith made an outside move and played right into Clady's hands. Smith was fanned out of the play with the kind of technique you don't expect to see from a rookie tackle. He's not quite Joe Thomas -- imagine the perfect arc of an opening door and you'll have an idea of Thomas' technique -- but Clady knew how long to keep Smith outside before pushing him completely out of the play back inside. Ellis almost had Hamilton beat inside, but Cutler stepped up in the pocket and hit Brandon Stokley for a 17-yard gain. The Broncos keep their drive going.
First-and-goal from the Saints' 3, and another good play for Clady. He handfought Smith at the line, only to head up to the second level to chip Randall Gay as Michael Pittman went up the middle for two yards and just short of a touchdown. Cutler hit Nate Jackson on the next play for a 1-yard score, and I was impressed that Clady didn't get lost in the aggression at the line, understood his read responsibility, and made that second block.
I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Clady, and doing a more thorough article later in the year. I like what I've seen in run- and pass-blocking. Clady is as agile as he is aggressive, making him a perfect fit for the Denver zone scheme. There are those who believe that Clady has the most potential of any of the tackles taken in the first round of this draft. We'll put him under the microscope as he gets more familiar with the NFL.
Posted by: Doug Farrar on 24 Sep 2008
INSTANT ANALYSIS: Millen's Drafting Mistakes
The departure of Matt Millen from the Lions organization today allows an entire city to finally have some hope that their football team might once again be relevant. For the emotionally unattached, it marks the close of an era of almost unmatched, awe-inspiring futility.
While tracking the futility is as simple as looking at the Lions' win-loss record, what's more interesting to look at is Millen's much-talked about failures on draft day. I don't need to retell the story of the four wide receivers at this point, so I won't. As mentioned previously in PFP, Millen's draft strategy focused on taking proven players on offense from big colleges in the first round of the draft; the only pick to not fit that mold was linebacker Ernie Sims.
Outside of selecting a pair of WAC defenders in Ikaika Alama-Francis and Gerald Alexander in the second round of the 2007 draft, Millen stayed with big schools in the second round, too. Here, all of his picks except for quarterback Drew Stanton and center Dominic Raiola were defensive players.
When Millen did reach for small-school players, they failed, with players like defensive back Keith Smith (3-73, 2004) and linebacker John Taylor (4-134, 2002) never making into the starting lineup.
While judging the quality of a draft is difficult and intrinsically tied to many variables, the best method we've come up with so far is Games Started Above Average, or GSAA. First explained in an ESPN story here, GSAA takes a player's games played and games started for each season since his selection, creates a seasonal average, and then compares it to the same data for all players of the same position taken within ten selections of that pick. The data is currently available for the DVOA era, so, for example, Tom Brady's 13.3 GSAA is figured by comparing the former 199th overall pick's games started per season (13.8) to those of all other quarterbacks taken from 1995 through 2007 with picks ranging from 189 to 209. They averaged 0.5 starts per season.
While work still needs to be done on creating positional baselines for expected career length and attempting to adjust for player performance, GSAA is a metric that answers, in a very simple way, what it's supposed to: How much better was this pick than players chosen at similar times? It will not surprise you that, since 2001, Millen's ranked amongst the worst drafters in all of football.
Team Avg GSAA
DEN -0.36
PIT -0.32
DET -0.31
MIN -0.20
SEA -0.16
HOU 0.86
NYJ 0.89
BUF 0.89
IND 1.02
BAL 1.22
What's surprising, though, is the makeup of his drafts and why he's failed. If you compare Millen's Day One picks to other teams, the Lions GSAA is 0.05 -- basically neutral. In fact, the late-nineties Lions, with players like Reggie D. Brown, Stockar McDougle, and Aaron Gibson, were actually worse first-round selectors than Millen! That seems strange to say, but when you consider Millen's first-round picks, Kevin Jones, Jeff Backus, Sims, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and even Joey Harrington all became starters in the league. While some have been more successful than others, and Jones and Harrington have lost their starting gigs this year, that essentially washes out with the disaster picks.
It's actually on Day Two of the draft that Millen's struggles rear their head. In the fourth round and beyond since 2001, only Seattle has been worse at finding starters than Detroit, whose picks have averaged -0.61 GSAA.
Looking at the players Millen selected, it's easy to see why. Of Millen's 34 Day Two picks, not one is still a starter in the league. His best pick was Terrence Holt (5-137, 2003), who started 43 games and is now a street free agent. Linebacker James Davis was taken seven picks later and started 30 games in three seasons, but was cut by the Lions and couldn't find a spot; he's now a phys. ed coach. Kelly Butler started for a little over a season and is now on the Cardinals' practice squad. And these are the successes!
Matt Millen's professional obituaries will list his famous skill-position busts, and there's every reason to think that they should; with each year that Mike Williams and Charles Rogers aren't in the league catching passes for the Lions and guys like Braylon Edwards or, ironically, Calvin Johnson are, their GSAA will look worse and worse. At the moment, though? It's Millen's performance on Day Two that really marks his draft performance as being an abject failure.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 24 Sep 2008
Re: INSTANT ANALYSIS: Millen's Drafting Mistakes
by James-London :: Wed, 09/24/2008 - 2:04pm