McCain's Convention Bounce Reflected in Polls

[tnedator]

Real clear politics now shows McCain up +1.0, and in 5 of the 6 polls in the average, he ranges from down 1 to up 10 points (the one exception is the FD - Diageo poll that has Obama +6 in a poll taken from 9-2 to 9-4).

In the three polls that were taken after the convention, the average is McCain +4.3%.

Here are some findings from the newest USA Today/Gallup Poll:

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Sep. 07

Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

See map for state-by-state breakdown.

[SoCalBronco]

He got a nice bounce. He's generally up 3-4 in most polls I've seen the last day or so. There is that USA Today outlier that has him up 10 among likely voters. It will probably be a complete dead heat by next week as the bounce recedes. Obama needs to be up by 4 in the final polling to win, IMO.

[SoCalBronco]

Sep. 07

Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

See map for state-by-state breakdown.

The electoral college will follow the popular vote if the difference is more than just a hair. I read a study awhile back noting that its basically impossible for a candidate to win the popular vote by more than half a point and still lose.

[Rohirrim]

He got a nice bounce. He's generally up 3-4 in most polls I've seen the last day or so. There is that USA Today outlier that has him up 10 among likely voters. It will probably be a complete dead heat by next week as the bounce recedes. Obama needs to be up by 4 in the final polling to win, IMO.

More than that. You have to take into account the "Diebold Effect."

[Rigs11]

goes to show the IQ of repubs.An almost 2 year governor reads a speech written by the same yahoos that have shafted this country for the last eight years, she wont even talk to the press, and it energizes their base. How very very sad.

[Rohirrim]

Wow! McCain up by 19 in Alaska. He might pull out those 3 electoral votes. I guess Palin has really helped.

[SoCalBronco]

More than that. You have to take into account the "Diebold Effect."

Haha...well, I was referring to the Bradley effect. I read somewhere that some pollsters thought that as much as 10% of Obama backers were being untruthful, although I don't think its that much. I think its probably around 5-8%. If he's got 50%, that amounts to about 3-4%, which means its really 46-47%. He did do alot better in the caucuses than the primaries as well. I think if he is ahead by 4 or more on November 1st, he should be able to hold on. If its 3, its probably a cliffhanger, 2 or less, then we will win.

[TheDave]

Like I've said before individual polls are not going to tell the story... Just too many differences in polling methods and what not. Keep focused on the ones that are a combination of all polls available...

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png (http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php)

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

goes to show the IQ of repubs.An almost 2 year governor reads a speech written by the same yahoos that have shafted this country for the last eight years, she wont even talk to the press, and it energizes their base. How very very sad.

It's only helping him in the states that already vote rethug no matter what.

Meanwhile, states like Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio are turning blue.

[tnedator]

goes to show the IQ of repubs.An almost 2 year governor reads a speech written by the same yahoos that have shafted this country for the last eight years, she wont even talk to the press, and it energizes their base. How very very sad.

Not just republicans. The independent vote is pretty much split even, possibly leaning McCain's way, since the Gallup and USA Today polls don't give a breakdown, but they have McCain leading by more than Rassmussen (where the independent vote is split).

[TheDave]

Haha...well, I was referring to the Bradley effect. I read somewhere that some pollsters thought that as much as 10% of Obama backers were being untruthful, although I don't think its that much. I think its probably around 5-8%. If he's got 50%, that amounts to about 3-4%, which means its really 46-47%. He did do alot better in the caucuses than the primaries as well. I think if he is ahead by 4 or more on November 1st, he should be able to hold on. If its 3, its probably a cliffhanger, 2 or less, then we will win.

Please tell me that you are not hanging your hope on the Bradeley excuse from 1980 (or was it 84'). Even if there was some validity that people won't vote for an Aftican American back then, the world has changed significantly since 1980.

[tnedator]

Like I've said before individual polls are not going to tell the story... Just too many differences in polling methods and what not. Keep focused on the ones that are a combination of all polls available...



Exactly, Realclearpolitics.com has McCain ahead by 1 in an average of national polls, and trending up while Obama is trending down.

It will likely even back out a little while after the convention, but RCP isn't a single poll.

[Rohirrim]

They're dead even in VA.

[tnedator]

Sep. 07

Obama 301 McCain 224 Ties 13

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

See map for state-by-state breakdown.

Realclearpolitics.com

Electoral College
Obama 238, McCain 174, Toss Ups 126 | No Toss Ups: Obama 273, McCain 265

[Rohirrim]

Colorado must be in play. We're getting carpet bombed with commercials.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Please tell me that you are not hanging your hope on the Bradeley excuse from 1980 (or was it 84'). Even if there was some validity that people won't vote for an Aftican American back then, the world has changed significantly since 1980.

Well, he has to hang his hopes on something. ;)

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Colorado must be in play. We're getting carpet bombed with commercials.

Obama 45%

McSame 43%

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[TheDave]

Exactly, Realclearpolitics.com has McCain ahead by 1 in an average of national polls, and trending up while Obama is trending down.

It will likely even back out a little while after the convention, but RCP isn't a single poll.

Unfortunately RCP only combines the top 5 polls. Because the the fragmented way people communicate (land lines, cell phones, internet, etc.) you need a much larger sample size to obtain an accurate view of what is going on. Too many of these polls are just targeting one type of prospective voter.

[tnedator]

Obama 45%

McSame 43%

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

What does you little list of "Logical Fallacies" say about immature little name calling like "McSame"? Just curious... :thumbsup:

[SoCalBronco]

Please tell me that you are not hanging your hope on the Bradeley excuse from 1980 (or was it 84'). Even if there was validity in that back then the world has changed significantly since 1980.

I'm not "hanging my hope" on anything. I do think the effect is real though, although I'm not sure how pronounced it is. I think McCain might be able to win either way, but the Bradley effect is a real concern for Obama, especially in light of how he underperformed in primaries as opposed to caucuses. It need not be "huge" to take the presidency from him. As noted above, even if its just 5% of current backers, that's still a big deal, that would translate to 2.5% if he otherwise polls 50, which would cause him to lose. If he polls 50, that means he would win by 2 percent. If he loses 2.5%, then he's down 0.5% and thats basically outside the margin where the popular vote winner could lose still the electoral.

If Obama is up by 2 in the final polling and he wins, I'll try my best to get you a poster of a naked Bea Arthur (just dont let Spider steal it from you). If he's up by that much and loses, you can buy me an ice cream bar (and I'll try to not let Bob steal it from me). :)

[tnedator]

Unfortunately RCP only combines the top 5 polls. Because the the fragmented way people communicate (land lines, cell phones, internet, etc.) you need a much larger sample size to obtain an accurate view of what is going on. Too many of these polls are just targeting one type of prospective voter.

I have to hit the sack, but I'll take a look at pollster.com tomorrow. I am not familiar with the polls they combine, so I can't really comment on it.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

What does you little list of "Logical Fallacies" say about immature little name calling like "McSame"? Just curious... :thumbsup:

Right-wingers just don't get political satire for some reason (unless it has something to do with stained dresses or cigars, of course.)

[theAPAOps5]

It will drop here in a few days. Its what the title says the Convention Bounce.

A vote for McCain is a vote for another 4 years of this country going down the ****ter.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Unfortunately RCP only combines the top 5 polls. Because the the fragmented way people communicate (land lines, cell phones, internet, etc.) you need a much larger sample size to obtain an accurate view of what is going on. Too many of these polls are just targeting one type of prospective voter.

Yep.

I guess facts like these aren't going to stop the neo-con-artists from grasping at any little straw they happen to see, however. :D

[TheDave]

I'm not "hanging my hope" on anything. I do think the effect is real though, although I'm not sure how pronounced it is. I think McCain might be able to win either way, but the Bradley effect is a real concern for Obama, especially in light of how he underperformed in primaries as opposed to caucuses. It need not be "huge" to take the presidency from him. As noted above, even if its just 5% of current backers, that's still a big deal, that would translate to 2.5% if he otherwise polls 50, which would cause him to lose. If he polls 50, that means he would win by 2 percent. If he loses 2.5%, then he's down 0.5% and thats basically outside the margin where the popular vote winner could lose still the electoral.

If Obama is up by 2 in the final polling and he wins, I'll try my best to get you a poster of a naked Bea Arthur (just dont let Spider steal it from you). If he's up by that much and loses, you can buy me an ice cream bar. :)


We will see how things play out. I never bought into the Bradely excuse back then and do even less now. The major problem with any type of polling in this election is the inability of pollsters to properly define and target "Likely Voters" As i stated before people are extremely fragmented in their methods of communication. Cell's, Land Lines, IP, Pre-Paids, etc. Read up on the methods that the majority of these pollsters are using. They are either unable or unwilling to modify their tactics to meet the current reality.

Truth is....The Dem's turn-out in the primaries was significantly higher than republican's across the spectrum. Additionally I have read that in this election cycle 35% of voters identify as republicans while 45% as Democrats. Unless someone can explain to me how a highly active Dem' voting base with a 10% edge in voter registration can suddenly trail in various polls after the Maverick introduced us to the Milf... Well.... I'm not buying it.

[SoCalBronco]

We will see how things play out. I never bought into the Bradely excuse back then and do even less now. The major problem with any type of polling in this election is the inability of pollsters to properly define and target "Likely Voters" As i stated before people are extremely fragmented in their methods of communication. Cell's, Land Lines, IP, Pre-Paids, etc. Read up on the methods that the majority of these pollsters are using. They are either unable or unwilling to modify their tactics to meet the current reality.

Truth is....The Dem's turn-out in the primaries was significantly higher than republican's across the spectrum. Additionally I have read that in this election cycle 35% of voters identify as republicans while 45% as Democrats. Unless someone can explain to me how a highly active Dem' voting base with a 10% edge in voter registration can suddenly trail in various polls after the Maverick introduced us to the Milf... Well.... I'm not buying it.

The change in voter registration percentages is a good point, although I'm not convinced re: the primary turnout. The same thing happened in 1988, Dems crushed GOP in overall primary turnout numbers, but still lost in the general. Palin probably will help GOP turnout as well. It's the registration issue that is a problem for McCain though, I do agree about that.

[Seamus]

Operation Chaos (http://townhall.com/columnists/AmandaCarpenter/2008/03/25/signs_that_operation_chaos_is_working)?

Also found this poll discussed: (http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082508/content/01125110.member.html) When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be… Very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, very liberal, unsure/refused. In August 2008, Americans answered that question this way: (1) 20% of Americans considered themselves to be very conservative; (2) 40% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat conservative--" For those of you in Rio Linda, that adds up to 60% who consider themselves conservative. Two percent said they considered themselves to be moderate, the independents, the great moderates in American History. Two percent of the American people consider themselves to be moderates, and yet we're told that they are 20% of the electorate. Twenty-seven percent said they were somewhat liberal, and 9% said they were very liberal. That's a total of 36% to 60. Sixty percent conservative, 30% liberal.

[ScottXray]

Operation Chaos (http://townhall.com/columnists/AmandaCarpenter/2008/03/25/signs_that_operation_chaos_is_working)?

Also found this poll discussed: (http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082508/content/01125110.member.html) When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be… Very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, very liberal, unsure/refused. In August 2008, Americans answered that question this way: (1) 20% of Americans considered themselves to be very conservative; (2) 40% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat conservative--" For those of you in Rio Linda, that adds up to 60% who consider themselves conservative. Two percent said they considered themselves to be moderate, the independents, the great moderates in American History. Two percent of the American people consider themselves to be moderates, and yet we're told that they are 20% of the electorate. Twenty-seven percent said they were somewhat liberal, and 9% said they were very liberal. That's a total of 36% to 60. Sixty percent conservative, 30% liberal.


75% Pissed off.

[Bronco Bob]

Also found this poll discussed: (http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_082508/content/01125110.member.html) When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be… Very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, very liberal, unsure/refused. In August 2008, Americans answered that question this way: (1) 20% of Americans considered themselves to be very conservative; (2) 40% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat conservative--" For those of you in Rio Linda, that adds up to 60% who consider themselves conservative. Two percent said they considered themselves to be moderate, the independents, the great moderates in American History. Two percent of the American people consider themselves to be moderates, and yet we're told that they are 20% of the electorate. Twenty-seven percent said they were somewhat liberal, and 9% said they were very liberal. That's a total of 36% to 60. Sixty percent conservative, 30% liberal.

Wow, a link to Rush Limbaugh's website. Now there is a reliable method
of determining the amount of liberals vs conservatives in this county.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Wow, a link to Rush Limbaugh's website. Now there is a reliable method
of determining the amount of liberals vs conservatives in this county.

Hilarious!

[epicSocialism4tw]

6 months ago, I would have never guessed that a repub candidate would be within 5% of either Obama or Clinton at any point in this election cycle.

Dems still have not figured out how to run an election.

[socalorado]

6 months ago, I would have never guessed that a repub candidate would be within 5% of either Obama or Clinton at any point in this election cycle.

Dems still have not figured out how to run an election.

QFT!
This more than anything else, is why i posted a thread on the polls.
As far as i am concerned, they are in a dead heat, polling aside.
Period. End of story-as of now. Thats just my opinion of these polls.
You obamacon nutjobs or you neocon hacks can try and BS your way through this stuff and try and rub your pu$$y to make it feel better, but the simple fact that they are tied is just utterly amazing.
And the reason they are tied, if you agree or not, is because some unknown "hockey mom" from some unkown town in a basically unknown state showed up and just took all of obamas steam. Period. end of story.
She did this and even if you are a obamacon you gotta give her and whoever came up with that plan of attack credit.
That was a brilliant idea and it has worked (SO FAR) to perfection.
I am not saying that it will give repbubs a victory, but it was a incredible move, and whoever it was that came up with this idea of having Palin on the ticket should get props.
Whoever it was, (i dont know obviously), he/she knew the media and knew the way our american culture works, and they munipulated the culture to perfection, (so far).
This country LOVES this stuff, and the fact that she had some little "family controversies" only fueled america even more to show interest and stir up all kinds of debates and questions which only to dems hurt their appeal.
And all the media questioning or hate or whatever you want to call it, actually HELPED HER, and the repubs!
It was a sheer brilliant move, and so far the obama camp has not been able to counter it, nor has the liberal media. They are trying and i keep a close eye on it, but so far they have not been able to counter.
All of the stuff about Palin's past just doesnt seem to matter. I think thats because when you put that stuff up next to obamas weird background, and his weird freinds and how the media disected that stuff for months, it pales in comparison as of right now in the eyes of the majority of viewers. Its not right, but thats whats so brilliant about this Palin move.
Again, credit where credit is due.
I have no doubt the dems will counter, but the circus is just so fun to watch. For me, this stuff is better than any reality show you could come up with.
Hollywood couldnt write this stuff in a million year!

Now i hera that obama is talking to bill privately, and that hillary is going to go out on the road for obams!?!?! Is this true!!?!?!
Jeez, obama FINALLY gets her to conceed and move on and let the dems have a little unity, and now he is considering trying to use her?!?!
Man, i swear thats a recipe for disaster if i ever saw one.
You just know, you all JUST KNOW that billary wont be able to fall in line and their will be controversey and all kinds of contrived stuff by the right, to make that out to be a totasl circus.

I swear, this stuff is un-freakin-believable!

[TailgateNut]

The Obama camp, as you put it can't counter it, because the republicans wont allow Sarah to be interviewed until properly trained.

If she were ready to become the VP and eventually the president, then she should remove the muzzle and answer questions.

America wants to know who she is, and why she and McCain think she's qualified for the VP position.

Hunting reindeer and wolves doesn't count as experience.
Implementing snow removal schedules doesn't qualify.

[socalorado]

The Obama camp, as you put it can't counter it, because the republicans wont allow Sarah to be interviewed until properly trained.

If she were ready to become the VP and eventually the president, then she should remove the muzzle and answer questions.

America wants to know who she is, and why she and McCain think she's qualified for the VP position.

Hunting reindeer and wolves doesn't count as experience.
Implementing snow removal schedules doesn't qualify.

More brilliance by the repubs.
They are currently tied (to me) or AHEAD officially in the polls, and they have a girl according to the obama camp who isnt qualified to be VP.
I swear, when the guy/girl who came up with this idea becomes know, he/she is going to be the most coveted PR person in the world.

[TailgateNut]

More brilliance by the repubs.
They are currently tied (to me) or AHEAD officially in the polls, and they have a girl according to the obama camp who isnt qualified to be VP.
I swear, when the guy/girl who came up with this idea becomes know, he/she is going to be the most coveted PR person in the world.

In english, PLEASE!

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Hunting reindeer and wolves doesn't count as experience.
Implementing snow removal schedules doesn't qualify.

Huh?

If you listen to people like Garcia Bronco, this kind of experience is WAY more important than experience at the federal level writing ethics reform and anti-nuke proliferation legislation.

And a bimbo who had to try six times to earn a journalism degree is obviously WAY more academically qualified than a scholar of Constitutional law and a president of the Harvard Law Review.

:rofl:

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

In english, PLEASE!

Is our children learning? ;)

[TailgateNut]

Is our children learning? ;)

not until Obama implements his "Service for College" plan.:thumbsup: Maybe some of these knuckledraggers can finally get "up to speed".

[socalorado]

new poll from USA Today shows Senator John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, getting a huge bump from the Republican National Convention. In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by a margin of 54% to 44% among those most likely to vote.

The survey was taken of 1,022 adults, and it included 959 registered voters. A similar poll of only registered voters, not the more accurate “likely” voters, found McCain still leading Obama by 50% to 46%. That’s a massive improvement from last week when McCain trailed Obama by 7% in that same survey.

All the polls are showing that this convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate has taken a race that favored Obama and turned it on its head. Even though convention bounces usually fade somewhat in the weeks that follow… this is a great sign for McCain supporters and Republicans everywhere.

“In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.”

[link to conservativepulse.com (http://conservativepulse.com/home/2008/09/stunning-mccain-leads-by-10/)]

Man, i just cant believe that McCian is so far ahead in these polls. The bump from the convention is huge!
I imagine that by midweek they will settle, but mcCain might be ahead in all the polls even after it settles.
I just cant believe that a no name, woman from nowhere could have this kind of effect.
"soccer-moms" unite! LO!L!! Unreal! ( i cant stand soccer moms!)

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

[link to conservativepulse.com (http://conservativepulse.com/home/2008/09/stunning-mccain-leads-by-10/)]



:rofl:

[SonOfLe-loLang]

This is gonna go back and forth for a while. I wouldnt pay attention to polls until like 2 weeks before the election. More scandals and BS to come from both sides im sure

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

75% Pissed off.

:yep:

[ScottXray]

QFT!
This more than anything else, is why i posted a thread on the polls.
As far as i am concerned, they are in a dead heat, polling aside.
Period. End of story-as of now. Thats just my opinion of these polls.
You obamacon nutjobs or you neocon hacks can try and BS your way through this stuff and try and rub your pu$$y to make it feel better, but the simple fact that they are tied is just utterly amazing.
And the reason they are tied, if you agree or not, is because some unknown "hockey mom" from some unkown town in a basically unknown state showed up and just took all of obamas steam. Period. end of story.
She did this and even if you are a obamacon you gotta give her and whoever came up with that plan of attack credit.
That was a brilliant idea and it has worked (SO FAR) to perfection.
I am not saying that it will give repbubs a victory, but it was a incredible move, and whoever it was that came up with this idea of having Palin on the ticket should get props.
Whoever it was, (i dont know obviously), he/she knew the media and knew the way our american culture works, and they munipulated the culture to perfection, (so far).
This country LOVES this stuff, and the fact that she had some little "family controversies" only fueled america even more to show interest and stir up all kinds of debates and questions which only to dems hurt their appeal.
And all the media questioning or hate or whatever you want to call it, actually HELPED HER, and the repubs!
It was a sheer brilliant move, and so far the obama camp has not been able to counter it, nor has the liberal media. They are trying and i keep a close eye on it, but so far they have not been able to counter.
All of the stuff about Palin's past just doesnt seem to matter. I think thats because when you put that stuff up next to obamas weird background, and his weird freinds and how the media disected that stuff for months, it pales in comparison as of right now in the eyes of the majority of viewers. Its not right, but thats whats so brilliant about this Palin move.
Again, credit where credit is due.
I have no doubt the dems will counter, but the circus is just so fun to watch. For me, this stuff is better than any reality show you could come up with.
Hollywood couldnt write this stuff in a million year!

Now i hera that obama is talking to bill privately, and that hillary is going to go out on the road for obams!?!?! Is this true!!?!?!
Jeez, obama FINALLY gets her to conceed and move on and let the dems have a little unity, and now he is considering trying to use her?!?!
Man, i swear thats a recipe for disaster if i ever saw one.
You just know, you all JUST KNOW that billary wont be able to fall in line and their will be controversey and all kinds of contrived stuff by the right, to make that out to be a totasl circus.

I swear, this stuff is un-freakin-believable!

The polls are close , and maybe dead even, although I think Obama might still have a 1-2 point lead, excluding the convention bounce for McCain/Palin.

The REASON the polls are close are many....BUT:
Reason One.. Obama is Black.

Although I had hoped our country was beyond this ,it is more and more apparent that there is still a deep seated fear among a large percentage of the voting population about blacks in general. Otherwise there would be even LESS traction to the attacks that he has faced. With the track record the republicans have had over the last eight to twelve years, as stated above by a poster or two, there is no other reason I can honestly come up with that would justify the level of support in the polls for the Republican ticket. And I am not saying that Republican supporters are all outwardly racist, but the undercurrent is there.

You can say that he is inexperienced, or that Palin appeals to Hockey Moms, or that McCain is a war hero , but basically if looked solely on the issues (who will do what) the great majority of the country should be backing the Dems.

Unfortunately, when it gets right down to it, inside the voting booth, I fear that too many people will give in to their grosser human nature and vote for the candidate that is most like them in appearance. It comes down to a matter of Trust, and McCain is the Devil they know, versus a possible Devil they don't. Gut check time.

Based on that we have come a LONG way. That Obama ( A black) IS basically tied with McCain at this stage shows how far. Hopefully we can put this demon (racism) to rest, but I am not sure if this will be the election that does.

As far as the Palin pick...Any white woman governor would have had the same effect....It was a smart pick and is playing well , despite the baggage Palin may eventually be found to have.

[epicSocialism4tw]

The REASON the polls are close are many....BUT:
Reason One.. Obama is Black.



It surely couldnt be his far left socialist tendancies.

Only one explaination...
http://hiphoprepublican.com/uploaded_images/cmracecard-720561.jpg

Way to go man, you dumbed down the issues to the point of complete brainlessness.

[ScottXray]

It surely couldnt be his far left socialist tendancies.

Only one explaination...
http://hiphoprepublican.com/uploaded_images/cmracecard-720561.jpg

Way to go man, you dumbed down the issues to the point of complete brainlessness.


Sorry, if it upsets you. It doesn't make it less true. Try as we might to isolate it it IS a factor. Look at the exit polls in PA and WV during the DEM primaries. A large percentage actually admitted that race was a factor in their votes. Those are the ones who are more honest. I would think that there is an much larger group that consider it , even though they would never admit it.

The great majority of people in this country are not upper income class, but are having trouble meeting bills, paying their mortgages, finding jobs or reasonably priced health care and in general are worse off than 8 years ago.
Beleiving that the same group that contributed to those problems, and did nothing to correct them, is now going to "change" and reform their policies, while also saying that they will continue many of the same policies (economic)
is really hard to swallow, when the other party is proposing policies that try to address the problems. And labeling them as socialist, is a buzz word that really SHOULDN"T have the effect that you propose they do.

There ARE many that feel that abortion issues or Religious issues or matters of military leadership override the economic issues in the election. But I really don't think that those people would have considered Obama in the first place, and I beleive the majority of the nation falls somewhere in the group of
economics being a prime concern. Based on the Record of the last 8 years where should they be? Who will do the most for THEM?

The Republicans have always amazed me with their ability to get people to vote against their own self interest. They are masters at this , and while the Dems repeatedly put up good candidates , the Republicans just let human nature run its course. In this case they don't even have to mention it. It just IS.

Sure Obama has some issues that he can be hit on. They even are a real factor. But, when it comes down to it , I don't believe that the factor that no one wants to talk about isn't a MAJOR reason why this race is close.

[NaptownChief]

and while the Dems repeatedly put up good candidates ,


I don't have time to banter politics today but I must say this is one thing I would certainly question heavily. Gore, Kerry and Obama don't rise anywhere near what I would call good candidates. If the Dems would have had even decent cadidates they would have taken at least one of the last two elections if not both.....and this election would be the biggest layup of all time given the unpopular Bush yet they look like they will blow it also.

One thing I haven't heard mentioned much but most people forget that McCain actually considered jumping parties if you believe the under-current rumors from a few years back. But whether he did or didn't he is definitely much more of a moderate and more middle of the road that best reflects the majority of the US versus an extreme lefty in Obama. And that is why the Dems are looking like they will lose an election that nobody thought even remotely possible a few months ago.

[TailgateNut]

I don't have time to banter politics today but I must say this is one thing I would certainly question heavily. Gore, Kerry and Obama don't rise anywhere near what I would call good candidates. If the Dems would have had even decent cadidates they would have taken at least one of the last two elections if not both.....and this election would be the biggest layup of all time given the unpopular Bush yet they look like they will blow it also.

One thing I haven't heard mentioned much but most people forget that McCain actually considered jumping parties if you believe the under-current rumors from a few years back. But whether he did or didn't he is definitely much more of a moderate and more middle of the road that best reflects the majority of the US versus an extreme lefty in Obama. And that is why the Dems are looking like they will lose an election that nobody thought even remotely possible a few months ago.

Still sore over the loss, EH?

[socalorado]

I don't have time to banter politics today but I must say this is one thing I would certainly question heavily. Gore, Kerry and Obama don't rise anywhere near what I would call good candidates. If the Dems would have had even decent cadidates they would have taken at least one of the last two elections if not both.....and this election would be the biggest layup of all time given the unpopular Bush yet they look like they will blow it also.

One thing I haven't heard mentioned much but most people forget that McCain actually considered jumping parties if you believe the under-current rumors from a few years back. But whether he did or didn't he is definitely much more of a moderate and more middle of the road that best reflects the majority of the US versus an extreme lefty in Obama. And that is why the Dems are looking like they will lose an election that nobody thought even remotely possible a few months ago.

I think if the DEMS put up just about ANY other candidate, they would be leading by 20+ right now.
But, obama is just sooo left with such a weird background, that people (white or black or green) are just looking for a reason to NOT vote for him. Dont get me wrong, McPain has his skeletons, but obama just has a freaky weird background.

And yes, McPain is really a blue democrat in disguise running against a socialist.

[NaptownChief]

I think if the DEMS put up just about ANY other candidate, they would be leading by 20+ right now.
But, obama is just sooo left with such a weird background, that people (white or black or green) are just looking for a reason to NOT vote for him.

And yes, McPain is really a blue democrat in disguise running against a socialist.



Agreed. They could have served up a tomato can and ran away with this. I think they saw this as a rare opportunity to be able to slip a radical lefty through and grossly underestimated the middle of the road voters.

[TailgateNut]

I think if the DEMS put up just about ANY other candidate, they would be leading by 20+ right now.
But, obama is just SOOO BLACK, that people are just looking for a reason to NOT vote for him. Dont get me wrong, McPain has his skeletons, but obama just has a freaky weird background.

And yes, McPain is really a blue democrat in disguise running against a socialist.

Fixed it for ya!

[Rohirrim]

I must agree on some of this. For example, I think a Clinton/Clarke ticket would have cleaned the GOP's clock. Of course, the Hard Left of Pelosi, Reid, Kerry and Kennedy torpedoed Hillary right out of the gate.

[epicSocialism4tw]

Fixed it for ya!

I guess that you have to come up with some excuse why the candidate your party chose was the least wise that they could have offered.

[epicSocialism4tw]

I must agree on some of this. For example, I think a Clinton/Clarke ticket would have cleaned the GOP's clock. Of course, the Hard Left of Pelosi, Reid, Kerry and Kennedy torpedoed Hillary right out of the gate.

Clinton would have won.

[TailgateNut]

I guess that you have to come up with some excuse why the candidate your party chose was the least wise that they could have offered.

...speaking of "least wise"ROFL! , here comes a comment from the Texassian!

[socalorado]

I must agree on some of this. For example, I think a Clinton/Clarke ticket would have cleaned the GOP's clock. Of course, the Hard Left of Pelosi, Reid, Kerry and Kennedy torpedoed Hillary right out of the gate.

Yeah, its ureal.

I remember the clinton era. For me, i wasnt anything political back then, and it was a great time! I remember them trying to destroy Bill, and i thought, "jeez, for gettin a bj!?!? Gimme a break!" Guys ok in my book.
He was overall a solid president to me. He just was. I dont want to get into an argument with anyone over it, i just thought it was a good time for the country overall.

Hillary would be ahead by 20+, and all of us "on the fencers" would have jumped to her side of the fence long ago.

It has nothing to do with race, it has to do with obama's wacky background and his weird faaaar left antics. Thats it.
McPain is a hot tempered guy but hes a blue dem at heart and the country knows this. Plus he has the MILF factor working for him now.

just my 2 cents.

[TailgateNut]

Yeah, its ureal.

I remember the clinton era. For me, i wasnt anything political back then, and it was a great time! I remember them trying to destroy Bill, and i thought, "jeez, for gettin a bj!?!? Gimme a break!" Guys ok in my book.
He was overall a solid president to me. He just was. I dont want to get into an argument with anyone over it, i just thought it was a good time for the country overall.

Hillary would be ahead by 20+, and all of us "on the fencers" would have jumped to her side of the fence long ago.

It has nothing to do with race, it has to do with obama's wacky background and his weird faaaar left antics. Thats it.
McPain is a hot tempered guy but hes a blue dem at heart and the country knows this. Plus he has the MILF factor working for him now.

just my 2 cents.


Blue dem, my ass. The VPILF, I agree with, but in no way is McStain a dem.

[NaptownChief]

It has nothing to do with race, it has to do with obama's wacky background and his weird faaaar left antics. Thats it.




I actually think he could have gotten away with his far left antics if he actually believed in them and stood firm in the principles of his ideas. However he keeps jumping all over the place and changing his stance almost daily when he sees himself slipping a little in the polls on a certain idea.

First he was dead set against drilling then realized he wasn't in the majority on that and then decided that a little bit might be ok.

Then raising taxes, definitely going to stick it to businesses on taxes. That isn't gaining much traction and this weekend he is now saying he might hold off on that if the economy isn't doing real well. Now admitting that could damage the economy but his early stance was that it would somehow help matters.

No matter who you are there is always going to be a lot of people that disagree with you on many topics and despite that most can still respect you. However, when you flip flop around like this it shows you don't really have any strong principles but rather you are just willing to say whatever to win an election. Few people can respect that even the ones from your own party. Obama needs a backbone and needs to act like he knows what he is talking about even when he doesn't.

[ScottXray]

Yeah, its ureal.

I remember the clinton era. For me, i wasnt anything political back then, and it was a great time! I remember them trying to destroy Bill, and i thought, "jeez, for gettin a bj!?!? Gimme a break!" Guys ok in my book.
He was overall a solid president to me. He just was. I dont want to get into an argument with anyone over it, i just thought it was a good time for the country overall.

Hillary would be ahead by 20+, and all of us "on the fencers" would have jumped to her side of the fence long ago.

It has nothing to do with race, it has to do with obama's wacky background and his weird faaaar left antics. Thats it.
McPain is a hot tempered guy but hes a blue dem at heart and the country knows this. Plus he has the MILF factor working for him now.

just my 2 cents.

Obama and Hillarys positions on the issues are so close that they can barely be differentiated. And Her health care plan is more socialsed than his.

Yet She would have a 20 point lead you say, and Race is NOT a factor?

Funny name and background aside, How are his policies different than hers?

Goota go to work now.

Cya

[socalorado]

Obama and Hillarys positions on the issues are so close that they can barely be differentiated. And Her health care plan is more socialsed than his.

Yet She would have a 20 point lead you say, and Race is NOT a factor?

Funny name and background aside, How are his policies different than hers?

Goota go to work now.

Cya

heres my quote.

It has nothing to do with race, it has to do with obama's wacky background and his weird faaaar left antics. Thats it.

To me, thats it. And how he delivers his economic plan to the masses.
Like naptown says, hes all over the place, bro. just my opinion of it.

[Mr.Meanie]

Sorry guys, but I call BS on this. Clinton was absolutely hated by everyone. The mainstream media didn't like her. The right wing talk shows have been hoping she would run and they were foaming at the mouth to go at her.

Their tune changed as Obama started gaining some traction. Once he pulled even with her in the Primaries, their tone changed from liking Obama to demonizing him and talking about how Hillary should be the Dem nominee.

I had listened to Limbaugh and Hannity for years...only stopping in the last few months because of work. They were merciless to Hillary... until she wasn't the Dem darling anymore, and then they started viewing her as a warrior. Give me a break.

[NaptownChief]

Funny name and background aside, How are his policies different than hers?





National defense would be one major one that comes to mind. She appears to be much more aggressive on this front. For that reason alone I would have much preferred her over Obama if I had to unfortunately deal with a Democrat in the White House.

But as SoCal points out, his background leaves a lot of people uneasy. While he is trying to run from it like crazy and for good reason it is clear to anyone with a heart beat that he had close ties to Bill Ayers. That is creepy at a minimum and over the top alarming at a maximum. You throw in that tie to a very anti-American terrorist, his close ties to his anti-American minister and top it off with his weird explanation as to why he would never were an American Flag pin on his lapel and even devout Democrats are left wondering a bit about him. (BTW the American Flag on his lapel is another thing he flip flopped on, since that was very unpopular he wore one during the DNC acceptance speech).

This is all stuff that would really hurt anyone regardless of race or gender.

[ScottXray]

National defense would be one major one that comes to mind. She appears to be much more aggressive on this front. For that reason alone I would have much preferred her over Obama if I had to unfortunately deal with a Democrat in the White House.

But as SoCal points out, his background leaves a lot of people uneasy. While he is trying to run from it like crazy and for good reason it is clear to anyone with a heart beat that he had close ties to Bill Ayers. That is creepy at a minimum and over the top alarming at a maximum. You throw in that tie to a very anti-American terrorist, his close ties to his anti-American minister and top it off with his weird explanation as to why he would never were an American Flag pin on his lapel and even devout Democrats are left wondering a bit about him. (BTW the American Flag on his lapel is another thing he flip flopped on, since that was very unpopular he wore one during the DNC acceptance speech).

This is all stuff that would really hurt anyone regardless of race or gender.

I agree his background leaves people uneasy.

On military, Obama is the only candidate I know that has flat out said he will expand the Army permanently by two combat divisions and the Marines by One. He called for more forces to be sent to Afghanistan, long before it was being mentioned by anyone else. In the REAL world of political and military power extension if you have no troops to deploy, what good is saber rattling? Threatening nuclear response, because you have no other options available is a position of weakness, not strength. Such as the current situation in Georgia... We are weak and the Russians know it. They hold all the cards since we don't have any possibility of really stopping them. They are laughing at us and Nato, who is sucking on THEIR oil and gas pipelines..

He attended a Black church that was commonly acknowledged as the road to political advantage in the area he first ran for office in. That is why he chose that church, and in our world we call it networking. The minister came with the church, and he has never been shown to have attended while those inflammatory sermons were given. However, I'll give you that he probably knew the content of those sermons, and did not disavow them until it became an issue.

His tie in to Ayers is also some political networking, and Obama was 9 years old when the events mentioned occurred. The government has never chosen to prosecute him, so apparently THEY don't think he qualifies as a terrorist any longer.

And he never REFUSED to wear a flag lapel pin, but stipulated that wearing one or not has no bearing on a persons patriotism. By the way...most of those lapel pins are made in China.

Obama isn't a perfect candidate, and he has that funny name.. Oh and his Middle name is Hussein.

For whatever reason people give , there are answers, and the ability of people to see the truth is largely overidden by the noise and static that we now receive daily via the net , and the constant TV babble.

I did not support Clinton for the same reasons I don't support McCain. Both are honorable people but I don't trust them to do the RIGHT thing. And maybe my feeling that Obama really does want to change the way
our government works is foolish. But I think that our nation IS at a cross road, and that government by the people, for the people is in danger of failing here. Perhaps it is too late already.

[tnedator]

Like I've said before individual polls are not going to tell the story... Just too many differences in polling methods and what not. Keep focused on the ones that are a combination of all polls available...

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png (http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php)

Started looking at Pollster.com, but they don't seem to include the daily tracking polls, such as Rasmussen and Gallup tracking (1,000 calls a day, 3 day averages).

They do now show McCain and Obama tied (RCP has McCain up by 3 or so), but I haven't had a chance to figure out why they don't include the tracking polls.

Time for football, I'll see if I can find an explanation tomorrow.